The Catalina Foothills

Camino Antonio in contract

4905 N Camino Antonio  Tucson, AZ 85718, listed 74 days ago at $1,500,000 ($329/sf) is in contract today. An impressive contemporary, and one of very few in the foothills, it sold as a new home in July 08 for $1,350,000. (listed by Long Realty)  So what will it bring today.
Zillow says $1,236,900. And even though doing the math may suggest they’re on the right track, I’m betting that supply & demand exerted its influence and it settled closer to $1.4
than $1.2. We shall see.

 

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3 years and nothing, and now 2 contracts in 6 weeks

4411 Camino Sumo (now a short sale) has been available since December 08. And in all that time it never went to contract. At least not until last month when it dropped from $1,195,000 to the always irresistible $999,999, down from a very high high of $1,750,000. And that did it, it’s been to contract twice since then – the first one didn’t stick.

And of course the reduced price is what did it, but also, there’s not much to pick from in the $900 to $1.1 range. 4411 Camino Sumo  Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

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Montanas estates is sold out

2285 E Corte Del Sabio is the latest home to go to contract in Montanas Estates, a small community of mid-priced homes in the shadow of Sin Vacas and nearby Pima Canyon.
 2285 E Corte Del Sabio  Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Del Sabio was listed 28 days ago for $725,000, and quickly dropped to $699 and just as quickly went to contract. Also worth noting is that Del Sabio is the highest list price home to go to contract (by a hair) and also the highest $/sf – by quite a few hairs. I showed it to clients when it first came on, I think we were the first showing, and I mouthed that tired old Realtor slogan – this won’t last, it’s too nice a house.

In the last 6 months 4 homes have sold in Montanas from $400 to $650k. And with Sabio now in contract there’s nothing for sale.

btw - in the same 6 month period last year, nothing sold in Montanas.

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supply and demand is again flexing its muscles

From the depths of the housing crash, let’s say in the fall of 08, there’s been an ongoing tug a war, a stand-off really, over prices, between buyers and sellers. For years sellers held out for a market that was long gone and just refused to face reality. But buyers also held the line, they either got it at the price they wanted or they walked. And of course the inventory of homes for sale ballooned. In April 09 I wrote > from the front lines

And that pretty much endured until last spring when things started to loosen up.
Because after a few years of slow sales and falling prices, plus those nagging low-ball offers along with foreclosures and short sales constantly chip-chipping away at prices,
home sellers finally got the message. And little by little they fell in line and lowered their prices to somewhere in the range of 2003 – 2005 prices. And sales picked up. And as more of them joined the party the market improved and the inventory of homes for sale began to fall.
(and we’re seeing fewer new listings because many home owners are either unwilling or unable to sell at these reduced prices)

And then we had that giant pause for the Euro debt thing last August and the consequent fall of the stock market, blah blah… 

And then 2012, when things started off slow but sure picked up.  And before you knew it we went from slow sales and many homes for sale to fairly brisk sales and the lowest inventory in years.
- on April 29, 2009 there were 585 homes for sale – today there are 327 -
- and from Jan 1, 2009 to April 26, 2009 135 homes sold – while for the same period this year 224 homes sold. So inventory is down 44% and sales are up 65% – the two faces of supply and demand.

So I’m not surprised now when I see a new listing come on that’s priced higher (instead of lower) than what it sold for in 2005 – 2010, or even 2011. And while there’ve been just a few of them, it seems like there are a few more every day or two.  

But I’m betting that even with brisk sales and low inventory, that this real estate recovery, if it is a recovery and not a mirage, which is barely in its infancy and still very fragile, is much too fragile to handle rising prices. And I’m also pretty sure that buyers, who are still extremely price sensitive (as they should be), will once again reject higher prices.  

But still it doesn’t surprise me that they’re going for it.

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uh oh

Stunned Home Buyers Find the Bidding Wars Are Back

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a quiet day in the foothills

Not much goin on and nothing to report. But I have a home inspection today and another tomorrow to keep me busy. So I’m not complaining, Back Soon

more quick contracts

6760 N Placita Acebo , Tucson, AZ 85750 in Alta Vista was listed 9 days ago for $650k and is in contract today. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

7557 N Camino Sin Vacas, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed 19 days ago for $749,900 and it’s in contract. (listed by Long Realty)  Oh, and it last sold in 2005 for $760,000. So, what, a token drop from 05 prices?

6520 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 listed 39 days ago for $425,000 is also in contract.
(listed by Long Realty) That’s 2 for Skyline in 2 days.

And yesterday I mentioned 6540 N Placita Tia Ro,Tucson, AZ 85750 – a new and newly listed spec home in Alta Vista – listed March 1 at $1,249,000 ($309/sf) and in contract yesterday.
This is probably the 4th new spec home this year to go to contract so quickly, and a reversal of the fate suffered by so many specs during the long, dark days of the bust. (listed by Long Realty)

And for equal time, one not-so-quick contract.

5132 N Fort Yuma Trail , Tucson, AZ 85750 in Sunrise Territory Village (Fairfield) was listed May 2010 at $699,000 and after a few price cuts and nearly two years, it too went to contract yesterday listed at $599,000. (listed by Long Realty)

And here’s one that’s neither quick nor slow, but right in between,

4820 N Via De La Granja, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Cat 10 was listed on Jan 12 at $895,000 and soon reduced to $845,000 but had to wait until Monday for a contract. Imagine. So about 4 months. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

See them here > more quick (and not so quick) contracts in the Tucson Foothills <

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it’s not the same old same old

I see it every day and I was reminded of it again this morning when I saw that 5238 E Mission Hill Drive was in contract. It’s been for sale for more than two years at pretty much the same price. It started at $795,000 for the first year and then for $749 since then. And then today, out of the blue, it goes to contract. And I wouldn’t be surprised if there were other buyers interested in it, but taking their time and figuring, hey, it’s been around for 2 years, what’s the rush.

We’re just now eking our way out of the worst real estate slump in decades, and during these last 4 or 5 years we’ve grown accustomed to having all the time in the world to shop for and make offers on the many homes that had been languishing on the market. 

But the market’s changing and many of the homes that have been sitting there for extended periods are now going to contract and selling. And a lot of it is due to sharply reduced prices. Prices that have gotten buyers off the sidelines and into the marketplace. But I’m also seeing homes that have been on the market for a year or more - without much of a price cut-  also going to contract – like Mission Hill up above. And every day new listings come on at prices that are attracting buyers a lot sooner than we’ve been accustomed to.

Here’s just a few examples.

6540 N PLACITA DE TIA RO, a new spec home was listed on March 1st for $1,249,000 ($309/sf) and today it’s in contract.

4625 N Placita Roca Blanca came on on March 6 for $1,595,000 and by March 8 it was in contract. And it closed on March 26  for $1,575,000.

2321 E Calle Lustre, listed since Jan 2011 was at $987,000 and then $949 and after more than a year it went to contract this March.

Similar story for 4803 E Placita Provida. Listed Jan 2011 for $1,095,000 and on the market ever since, it went to contract  and sold last month for $1,010,000.

But mostly it's big price cuts that are spurring sales. Like 7707 N Ancient Indian Drive which dropped from $2.250 to $1.495 in the past two years and still it didn’t move. Then two weeks ago it did.

And 1308 E DESERT GARDEN Drive which started at $1.280 two years ago and ended up at $840k last week.

There’s pent up demand from buyers who’ve been waiting for just the right deal to come along but are now finding that there’s very little to choose from. The market is changing.

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above it all in Pima Canyon

1714 E Barrel Cactus Court, at the very north end of PC and literally up in Catalinas, with dazzling views of the entire Tucson valley, is one of just a handful of lots in this very secluded and peaceful section of Pima Canyon.

And not to be overshadowed by the location, the house itself is a real dazzler. With more panache and verve than is usual it’s sleekly outfitted with Italian cabinetry from Scavolini, Gaggenau appliances, marble floors and a swim up bar to soak in those views.

.

It started in 09 at $3,995,000 and as of today is priced at $2,495,000.

1714 E Barrel Cactus Court  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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sold prices vs. list prices vs. everything else

Since the 1st of the year 218 homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills.
Their average/median sold price was $474,556/$364,000. And at the time of contract they were listed at an average/median of $503,561/$379,000. So they sold for 94.2% of the average list price and 96% of the median. And that’s an indication of a pretty strong market.

Meanwhile there are 330 homes for sale, and they’re listed at an average/median of
$898,019/$577,000. A whopping 78% higher than the average and 52% higher than the median of those that sold.

So while the homes that are selling are selling comfortably close to list price, there’s a whole tier of homes at the upper-upper range – from approximately  $1.6 and up – that have yet to see much, if any, action. And above $2.0 it’s a graveyard.

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what’s in a name

 Last July the house at 2290 E Placita Sin Muerte went to contract in 2 days and sold for full list price > what’s it worth to live on ‘the street without death > And now its neighbor at
2280 E Placita Sin Muerte has gone to contract in 5 days. 
 2280 E Placita Sin Muerte Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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not a terribly exciting day for foothills real estate

3620 E Lone Hill Place, in Foothills ll, turned up as a new listing for $749, and now as a short sale. Lone Hill had been at it since March 2010, starting at $1,025,000 and eventually dropping to $829,000, all for naught, and was canceled just a few days ago. 3620 E Lone Hill Place Tucson, AZ 85718  (listed by Long Realty)

And 5420 N Camino Real, in the old foothills, is also back as a new listing. This time for $745k. It sold in 04 for $835,  was listed in late 2011 for $899 and was canceled at $789 a few days ago. 5420 N Camino Real Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Any takers for  6720 N Saint Andrews Drive in Skyline CC.  It dropped from $1.5 to $1.295 ($283/sf) (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

And after many moons and many price cuts 820 E Via Linterna has sold. It started out in September 2010 at $825,000 and after being whittled down to $499,900 went to contract last month and closed today for $449,000. Disappointing, but reality sometimes is.
820 E Via Linterna Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And 6051 N Paseo Zaldivar had its first price cut today. Listed at $1.4 in early March it can now be yours for $1.375. 6051 N Paseo Zaldivar, Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

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more contracts

In Pima Canyon, a short sale at 1495 E Canyon Spring Court has another contract - 
the 3rd this year. The first two were accepted by the owner and then countered by the lender, but countered at quite a bit higher than list price. Which of course turned off the buyers, and they walked. So we’ll see what happens, but I’ll bet mr lender has learned his lesson.

It’s now at $985,000 and sold quickly in 06 and 07 for $1.550 & $1.525.
1495 E Canyon Spring Court , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by MacMorran & Assoc. R.E. Svcs)

That leaves PC with just 9 homes for sale. PC hasn’t been in the single digits in forever, or as forever as I can remember. 

And in Cat 10 - 4751 N Camino Sumo has a contract (the 1st this year)
Listed in November at $995 it’s now at $885,000 ($239/sf) and has happily found a buyer.
4751 N Camino Sumo Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by long Realty)

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why buyers like foreclosures

Because they’re usually priced right right from the jump.

4901 N Avenida De Castilla tried selling last year for $799 then $789 then $649 and went nowhere. So mr lender came along and took it over and put in on the market last week for $574,900 and, poof, it’s gone.

And while De Castilla is behind the pearly gates of Hacienda del Sol Estates, it’s also located on its eastern flank and therefore adjacent to Hacienda del Sol Rd. With the inescapable whizz of cars and trucks that accompany such locations. And not surprisingly, if homes by the side of road aren’t priced like they’re by the side of the road, they usually just sit there until they are.

4901 N Avenida De Castilla Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

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a quick sale at 2010 prices in Shadow Hills

5831 N Camino De La Sombra sold for $450,000 in June 2010 and was listed yesterday with a token price cut for $449,500. And it’s in contract today.

5831 N Camino De La Sombra
(listed by Long Realty)

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when it rains ….

And yet more upbeat real estate news, this time from today’s AZ Daily Star.

“Tucson is the best place in the country to buy a home right now, according to Realtor.com and Forbes magazine”

Realtor.com names city top market in nation, citing affordability, jobs

Tucson experiencing a boom in real estate investments

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another sale in La Paloma Estates

3413 E Via Palomita, listed 179 days ago for $1,295,000 sold today for $1,065,000 ($219/sf).

That’s the 2nd sale this year for over a mil in La P. While for all of 2011 there were also 2 sales over a mil. (Listed by Lynn Kline Realty, Inc. 542)

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my how things change

Get this, Forbes ranks Tucson one of the best cities to buy a home. And Tucson came in # 1. The Best Cities to Buy a Home Right Now

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in your favorite Catalina Foothills subdivision

Looking at the overall foothills market, right now there are 337 homes for sale at a median list price of $589,000. And 201 homes have sold since Jan 1 at a median sold price of $365,000 - leaving the foothills with a very normal and balanced 5.8 month supply of homes.

But looking at individual subdivisions or communities in the foothills we see that some are doing better and benefitting more than others from the recent upswing in sales.
In general lower priced homes are selling better than their higher priced neighbors.
But Pima Canyon and Catalina Foothills Est 10 and Skyline CC are high-end communities that are doing nearly as well or better than other areas, regardless of price. While Shadow Hills, a more moderately priced community where, until recently, homes were flying off the shelf, appears to have lost its footing. But I’ll bet not for long. And in the Catalina Foothills Estates, where foothills living began, with the homes priced from the mid $2’s to the $$$$ millions, it’s a sellers market. And then there are those few communities that are doing nothing at all.
It’s very mixed bag, where no single community even resembles the overall foothills market.

See for yourself, here’s market data for a number of popular foothills subdivisions, showing,   the Subdivision > the # of single family homes for sale > Median List price >  the # of homes sold since Jan 1 > Median Sold price > and the months of inventory (MOI) for each. 

Subdivision	# for sale	Med List $	# sold	Med Sold	MOI
Shadow Hills	8	$472,000	2	$508,000	14
Pima Cyn	10	$1,674,500	8	$1,017,500	4.4
Catalina Foothills Est 1-9	13	$679,500	20	$542,250	2.3
Cat 10	7	$999,999	3	$1,150,000	8+
La Paloma Est	4	$1,045,000	1	$1,750,000	14
La Paloma (other than Est)	18	$490,000	4	$469,050	16
Cobblestone	7	$1,350,000	0	$0	?
Canyons	6	$3,225,000	0	$0	?
Hacienda del Sol Est	5	$995,000	0	$0	?
Foothills ll	2	$989,500	2	$1,327,250	3.5
Skyline CC	9	$1,100,000	7	$700,000	4.5
Alta Vista	15	$955,000	2	$830,000	26
Cimarron	11	$479,000	2	$389,925	19+
Fairfield	12	457,500	5	$360,000	8.4
Ventana Cyn Golf Villlas	8	$439,500	5	$330,000	5.6
Ventana CC, Cyn Est, Whlbck.	18	$999,250	4	$1,205,000	16
Ventana Cyn Mountain Est	6	$2,122,000	1	$1,700,000	21

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it’s not just in the foothills,

Here are some sales statistics for March from the Tucson Association of Realtors.
Keep in mind, these numbers are for the entire Tucson metro area and include single family homes, condos, townhomes and manufactured homes. And I think that’s it.

- Total Sales Volume increased significantly in March by 39.13% over February, and is up  21.96% from March 2011.

- Average Sales Price is up 2.21% from February.

- Average List Price increased from $171,723 in February to $173,890 in March.

- Under Contract increased 6.07% over February and 29.04% over March 2011.

- Total Unit Sales rose 36.11% over February are up 18.65% over March 2011.

the market is turning all across the greater Tucson area.

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if it were up to zillow they’d have sold sold sold for ...

Yesterday I wrote about the 3 homes that sold in Pima Canyon. And I meant to include Zillow’s zestimate for each of those sales, but I was rushing and forgot.

So just for fun, here it is. The list price , the actual sold price & the zillow price

2042 E Quiet Canyon Drive – listed $1,199,000 – sold $1,034,000 – zillow $1,019,100

1308 E Desert Garden Drive – listed $899,000 – sold $840,000 – zillow $733,800

1980 E Desert Garden Drive – listed $1,049,000 – sold $1,001,000 – zillow $971,900

With 2 out of 3 close to actual sold price, zillow did well. I think.

And this is interesting, if not also confusing. For the last house, at 1980 Desert Garden, zillow shows a $28,200 increase in value over the last 30 days. While for 1308 Desert Garden, it shows a $28,800 decrease over the same period. And for 2042 Quiet Canyon it shows a $0 change for the same 30 days. huh ???

And these are all in PC and all in close proximity to each other. Is there a zillow expert out there who can explain why and how there are or could be such differences in values over the past 30 days for homes in the same community.

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sold sold sold, in Pima Canyon

2042 E Quiet Canyon Drive sold in 2003 for $875,000 and was listed in May 2010 for $1,299,000 and sold today for $1,034,000 ($257/sf). (listed by Long Realty) So while they didn’t get anywhere near what they hoped for, they did get appreciably more than the $875 it sold for in 03. And that’s worth noting.

1308 E Desert Garden Drive started out at $1,280,000 in Jan 2010 and finished up today at $840,000 ouch! (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

1980 E Desert Garden Drive practically hit the bulls eye for the perfect sale.
It was listed on March14 for $1,049,000, went to contract two weeks later and closed for $1,001,000 ($297/sf). Nice work for less than 30 days.

The other thing worth noting is that it also sold last July for $950,000 – yes, in July 2011.  
So not only did it sell quickly and for awfully close to list, it also topped last year’s sale price. uh-oh. 
(listed by Long Realty)

> 3 sold in PC <

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how close to asking price are homes selling

Well it depends how you look at it but here’s a look at single family home sales from Jan 1 through April 11 - broken down by normal sales, short sales and foreclosures.

there were;
157 were normal (non-distress) sales and they sold for an average of 94.91% of list price.

there were 14 were short sales and they sold for 94.90% of list price

and there were 22 foreclosures and they sold for 97.97% of list price

Pretty cheerful statistics wouldn’t you say.  But, sad to say, the only ones that present an accurate picture of their little corner of the market are the foreclosure and possibly, and to a lesser extent, the short sale numbers. That’s because many, even most, of them sell from their original list price without the need for price cuts or re-listings.

While many of the normal sales have been reduced umpteen times before they attract a buyer and go to contract.  And the percentages are calculated based on the last list price, that is, the list price at the time of contract, after any and all price reductions and re-listings.

So if your favorite hacienda started out listed at $1,000,000, and was reduced to $900k, then to $800k then  $750k – and finally sold for $725k -  the % of  sale price/list price will show up in MLS statistics as having sold for 96.6% of list price – $725 is 96.6% of $750.  Which of course leads you to believe that everything is honky dory and buyers and sellers are in close accord on prices - which of course in pure bunk – completely ignoring  that it sold for 72.5% of original list price, and had a helluva a time getting there.

Were the stats to show the % of sale price/original list price, and also show % of sale price/list price (at time of contract) they  would present a much more complete and accurate picture of the market for both buyers and sellers. But that’s not the way it is in real estate land.

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Campbell Cliffs does The Wall Street Journal

After a leisurely tour this past December I wrote about Campbell Cliffs > Campbell Cliffs <
Designed by renowned architect Les Wallach of Line and Space and completed in 2004 after seven years in development, Campbell Cliffs is a magnificent 25,000 sf home on 20 acres of lush high Sonoran desert adjacent to the Coronado National Forest in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson Arizona …

And now WSJ.com has picked it up for their House of the Day > WSJ.com> Campbell Cliffs
It’s about time.

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sales are up, prices are down

March home sales were at a high for the past 15 months, while March home sale prices are amongst the lowest for the past 15 months. Because sellers continue to reduce their prices
to reflect today’s market values, and buyers are buying them, and ignoring the rest.

 

 

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and then there were 2

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive, a spec, started out in Jan 2010 @ $2,250,000, was more recently listed at $1,495,000 ($268/sf), and is reported in contract today.

That leaves just two specs in PC, and wouldn’t you know it, they’re also the two priciest homes in there, at $2,795,000 ($449/sf) and $4,199,000 ($787/sf). They may be with us for just a bit longer. 3 years ago there were 11 specs and nothing was moving. And it looked like nothing ever would again.

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1st quarter home sales in the Tucson Foothills

The following sales data are for single family homes sold through the Tucson Association of Realtors from January 1 thru March 31 for this year and years past.
year  # sold @ average & median sold price

2012   171  @ $470,486 - $358,900

2011   151  @ $462,944 - $400,000

2010   143  @ $558,815 - $439,000

2009   109  @ $530,765 – $445,000

2008   124  @ $715,687 – $538,750

2007   140  @ $683,288 – $540,000

2006   202  @ $744,496 – $580,000

So, for the 1st quarter, sales are higher than in every year since 2006. yeah!
And prices are hovering, but we’ll have to wait another quarter to see where they’ve settled.
I think they have settled, but we’ll see.

And in the ‘listed at million$$ +’ category, last year 10 sold in the 1st quarter, and this year 15 sold. So that’s not too shabby either.

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recent sales in Rio Verde Vista ll

3820 N Calle Agua Verde sold for $303,500 ($142/sf) in January

 

5628 E Rio Verde Vista Drive sold for $349,000 ($134/sf) in December

3950 N Rio Verde Vista Drive sold for $507,000 ($195/sf) in February

 

and 6060 E Calle De Vita sold for $960,000 ($284/sf) last week. Go figure. 

It turns out that 6060 takes the cake as the highest $$$ sale in Rio Verde Vista ll since August 2006. And by quite a bit too. There’ve been 21 sales since then, with the next highest at $825, but that was in 2008. Then $770 and $725, but those were in 2007. And from there the majority of sales were in the $2’s, $3’s and $4’s.  

The sellers must be laughing all the way …

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a milestone for Pima Canyon

The collapse of the economy in September 08 dealt a deadly blow to luxury home sales in the Tucson Foothills and everywhere else.  And none more so than Pima Canyon.
In Feb 09 there were 26 homes for sale, a measly 2 had sold in the previous 6 months, and there was not a single home in contract – leading to an extremely gloomy 78 month supply.

In June of 2010 there were 20 homes for sale and 6 sold in the previous 6 months, which worked out to a much better, but still bloated, 18 month supply of homes.

Last year at about this time there was a 1 year supply of homes in PC.

And though it seems incredible, today it’s down to a 6 month supply.
There are 10 homes for sale, 4 in contract and 11 sold in the past 6 months.

Place your bets.

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March home sales in the Tucson Foothills

March is the heart of the home buying/selling season, so there are no excuses for poor performance. Sales should be UP from previous months, and they are, thank goodness.
Just 36 homes sold in January and 53 in Feb, but in March we saw 74 sales.

So here’s a look at March sales, for this year and years past. 

March 2012
76 sold
median sold $ - 352,500

March 2011
61 sold
median sold $ – 415,000

March 2010
71 sold
median sold $ – 400,000

March 2009
42 sold
median sold $ – 425,000

March 2008
51 sold
median sold $ – 560,000

March 2007
61 sold
median sold $ – 595,000

March 2006
83 sold
median sold $ – 640,000

So sales are doing well. But make no mistake, it’s all happening on the backs of sharply reduced prices. While those still holding out for yesterdays prices are going nowhere. 

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be back soon

Suddenly everyone wants to buy and I’ve been busy showing homes everyday. 

good looking house at an attractive price

Guess what happened. The owners purchased 6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive in 03 for $1,370,000 and listed it for $1,395,000 90 days ago, and it’s in contract.

6451 N Ventana Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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