The Catalina Foothills

Dean Martin, Alice Cooper and …

When 6935 N Mamaronick Drive was listed two weeks ago for $1,390,000 I mentioned it here
> a Skyline Country Club Classic < and mentioned that it was reputed to have been owned by both Dino and Alice Cooper.

And talk about star power, it’s already in contract. How likely is that. A 1973 built, 9,548 sf,
3 story going to contract in Tucson in June in 14 days. Then again Zillow values it at $1,480,300. So I wonder if that did it.

6935 N Mamaronick Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite)

 

And don’t hold me to this but rumor has it Arnold Schwarzenegger made the offer.

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the drum roll please

Earlier this month I mentioned that 6151 E Finisterra, a spec home listed at $3,500,000, had gone to contract. > not everyone is pinching pennies <

And today it turned up as PENDING – indicating that it’s past inspections and on it’s way to close of escrow. This is a big deal. Because 6151 is the highest priced home to go to contract in the Tucson foothills since the summer of 2009. And for a couple of years now anything that’s been in the vicinity of $2.5 million or more has sold at drastically reduced prices. Will this one follow suit.  Or will Zillow’s zestimate of $3,248,900 carry the day.

6151 E Finisterra  Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Long Realty)

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another high-end sale at another drastically reduced sale price

In Ventana Canyon Estates 6426 N Desert Wind Circle sold today for $1,200,000 ($288/sf) from a $1,350,000 list price. Great. But it started out in January 2008 at $2,350,000 and was reduced to $2,195,000, $2,095,000, $1,995,000 etc., etc. And along the way it was relisted with a new agent and reduced some more until it settled in at $1,350,000 last October and finally went to contract this May.

I showed it two months ago and for various reasons it wasn’t quite right for my clients. But it’s no dog, not at all. On the contrary, it’s a real beauty in a gorgeous and dramatic setting at the north end of Ventana. And except for where it was priced for so long it’s the kind of house that I’m sure would have been very attractive to many buyers.

6426 N Desert Wind Circle Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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popularly priced at $2,050,000

A grand total of two homes have sold for more than $2 million this year in the foothills and they both sold for exactly $2,050,000. What are the odds of that.

In the Canyons, a spec home at  7417 N Secret Canyon Drive  sold last month for $2,050,000 from a $2,995,000 list that had been reduced from its starting price of $4.5 more than 3 years ago > (if you’re selling in the Canyons this is not good news) (listed by Long Realty)

And in Pima Canyon today, 1714 E Barrel Cactus Drive, also a spec, sold for $2,050,000 from a $2,495,000 list reduced from $3,995,000 when it debuted 3+ years ago. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty) (when you least expect it life surprises you)

The real point though is that these are both beautiful homes, not quite new but never lived in, and both on cream of the crop lots in premier gated communities. And  both sold for drastically reduced prices, about 50% of where they started, and that does not bode well for those still holding out for yesterdays prices. And neither of them were distress sales.

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on this hot day in June

it’s pretty slow out there and there’s not much to report, so to fill the gap here’s a look at the yearly rise and fall of average $$/sf sold prices in the Tucson Foothills for single family homes. Yawn!

So far this year $$/sf sold prices are straddling where they were in 2003 – 2004

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in contract this past week

Since Monday 6/18 14 homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills.

11 are priced from $245,100 to $599,000
then 1 each at $675,000, $759,000 and $950,000. That’s it.
With nothing at or above a million $$$, and there are 68 for sale at or above a million $$$.
It’s summertime!

Here’s a link to the previous weekly report  > for the week of June 11

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it is every appraiser's professional duty to arrive at valuations that "reflect the market," including recent changes — whether positive or negative

so says Sara Stephens (say that 5x) president of the Appraisal Institute, the industry's largest association. And that’s the way it oughta be.

But in my experience over the last year or so, more than a few of the deals I’ve been involved with have failed to “reflect the market”. And I hear the same thing from many other agents.
And not helping matters, the methods used by appraisers to arrive at their valuations are inherently backward looking. They’re looking at sales that closed in the last 3 to 6 months. When the market itself – buyers & sellers - is much more attuned to what is happening now, today and tomorrow. Not what happened 3 to 7 or 8 months ago. Yes, 7 or 8 months, because if they’re looking at sales from 5 or 6 months ago they’re looking at buy/sell decisions that were made as long as 6, 7 and 8 months ago. Ancient history.

Meanwhile the market for everything from stocks, to commodities and gold to the price of an item on eBay are all trading based on current market conditions. Supply & demand.
While homes continue to be valued based on stale data. 

And though they’ve yet to crack the code, even Zillow is constantly tweaking their valuations. And while I don’t know what data is included in their valuation formula, I’m guessing it’s more sophisticated than just looking back at old sales figures.

Read all about it >
From The Seattle Times > Appraisers have yet to get with the appreciation program

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when you’re hot you’re hot

Over in Sin Vacas 7459 N Calle Sin Celo sold in March 06 for $1,250,000 and in April 06 for $1,475,000 (honest, one month later, was that a hot market or what)

So when they wanted to sell in 08 they listed it at $1,649,000, but it didn’t sell. So they dropped it to $1,499,000. And still it didn’t sell. So they called it quits, maybe hoping for better times.

But better times didn’t come and they still wanted to sell so they listed it this past March for $995,000 and that did it. It went to contract in May and sold today for $925,000 – an attractive house at a very attractive price. (but not according to Zillow whose guesstimate was $813,000)

7459 N Calle Sin Celo , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

ps - Sin Celo translates as ‘without heat’

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it’s summer, and how

and summer in Tucson means triple digit temperatures and no snow birds. And that means many fewer home buyers making the rounds from one showing to another. And those 
full-timers who are here may need a little extra motivation to get them out in the 105 heat to see a house for sale. Even yours. A very attractive price often does the trick.

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The New York Times claims, Home Prices in the West Are Rebounding as Inventory Shrinks

Well, maybe. But there’s more to it than that. The article is not so much about the west as it is about Phoenix, where for a long time distress sales accounted for a staggeringly high percentage of overall home sales – like 50 - 60% and more.
__________________________________________________________________________
Home Prices in the West Are Rebounding as Inventory Shrinks

PHOENIX — Prices for existing homes here and in surrounding areas climbed by 25 percent during the 12-month period that ended in April, pointing to a decisive shift in the market realities of a place where foreclosed signs, abandoned properties and deserted neighborhoods became one of the most enduring symbols of the nation’s crippling real estate bust.

But hold off on the fireworks for a moment.

The rise in prices may be driven less by a resurgence in the local economy — real as it is — than by an inopportune dearth of houses for sale, as well as a steep decline in the number of bank-owned bargains hitting the market.

I think Professor Mayer hits the nail on the head;
Christopher J. Mayer, a professor of real estate at Columbia Business School, said the price increase happened because foreclosed homes, which were usually among the cheapest, were no longer widely available. In the Phoenix area alone, the number of distressed homes on the market fell by 81 percent in the year ended in April, and the number of foreclosures fell by 62 percent, the report showed.
___________________________________________________________________________

Here in the Tucson Foothills distress sales topped out at maybe 20% of overall sales, at their  peak. And for the period March 1 – May 31 for 2011 they accounted for 16% of overall single family sales while for the same period this year they inched up to 17%. A pittance of Phoenix’s numbers.

And as a result, unlike Phoenix, which is recovering from a deluge of distress sales, our prices have not risen. But they also never declined to anywhere near the extent they did in Phoenix.

During the March 1 – May 31 period last year  average/median sale prices in the Foothills were $495,550/$419,000 – while this year they’re $466/074/$375,000.

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6 acres and a fix-up

Up in Cobo Catalina Hills a new listing for 6.2 acres – forget about it, no lot splits permitted in Cobo - with a 6200 sf fix up. The listing says - Rebuild this approximately 6,200 sq ft territorial fix-up on 6.2 spectacular acres overlooking the city with unobstructed mountain views or raze it and build your dream home. For $825,000

It’s not often you run across 6 acres in the foothills. And in Cobo everything is 3.3 or more and most are more. So no crowding. And in case you’re not familiar, Cobo Catalina Hills is between Pima Canyon on the east and the various Westward Look communities on the west.

7501 N Christie Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

bets on high-end spec homes have not paid off

During the boom the mantra was, buy more, build bigger and you’ll make more. 
In other words why mess around with a $500k deal that you could maybe turn into $750k when you could do a $2.0mil deal and turn it into $3.0mil+. And it’s all borrowed money anyway, so what’s to worry. 

It sounded good at the time but since then most of the $2 mil+ spec deals hatched during the boom haven’t panned out. As a matter of fact I can’t think of even one that has panned out.
Three homes listed at $2mil+ have gone to contract this year and so far it doesn’t look very promising.

The 1st of the specs to contract this year was 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty) It debuted in 08 at $4,500,000 and after dropping to $2,995,000 it went to contract in March. Well OK, $4.5 to $2.9, that’s a big cut but it’ll  go for $2.6 or $2.7, eh. Oh yeah, it closed last month for  $2,050,000 - 45% of its original asking price - Plus the cost of carrying it for 4 years, oye!

1714 E Barrel Cactus Court Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty) the 2nd of 3 homes listed at $2 million+ to go to contract this year was reported as PENDING today. The PENDING status indicates that all contingencies have been met, and the deal is more or less a sure thing, and carelessly coasting toward close of escrow. Barrel Cactus, which I’ve mentioned a few times in the past > HERE & HERE < is a 2009 built spec that was first listed for $3,995,000 in 09. And after 3+ years and a few cuts it was reduced to $2,495,000 this April and went to contract in May. It hasn’t closed yet so we don’t’ know the accepted price. The investors paid $1.3 for the lot alone in 07, and that was before doing any site prep.  Even at $2.4 they’d be out a bundle. A big bundle.

The 3rd high-end spec to see action this year went contract just last week in Finisterra listed at $3,500,000 after starting out in Feb 2010 at $4,200,000. Not so bad, considering. But, at what price did it go to contract. We’ll have to wait and see.  6151 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

Here’s a few from yesteryear;

The spec at 2162 E Sentry Ridge Court sold for $1,500,000 this past March from a $1,550,000 list price. But it took four years and was reduced from $2,950,000.

Another Pima Canyon spec, 7828 N Ancient Indian Drive, sold in March 2011 for $1,660,500 after starting out in January 09 at $3,295,000.

And another, 2123 E Sentry Ridge Court, dropped from $2,750,000 to $1,850,000 before accepting $1,517,250 after 4 long years.

1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, also a Pima Canyon spec, started at $3.2 in 06 and ended at $1.9 four years later.

One of the early birds to the spec party, a La Quinta along Campbell Ave, started out in June 07 at $2,695,000 and didn’t sell until July 2010 when it finally got $1,600,000.

These big deals take time to pull together and build, 2 –3 years if all goes well.
And for many of them the boom was history by the time they arrived. The boom was short lived, but the bust has gone on forever. And it’s cut deeper and lasted way longer than anyone imagined. And what we’re seeing now, the crash of the most expensive specs, is the final collapse - the collapse of those who were able to hold out the longest, only to watch as the market for the most expensive homes continues to plunge.

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a Skyline Country Club Classic

6935 N Mamaronick Drive came on the market today. Again. But this time at a price that buyers may actually find attractive, $1,390,000 ($145/sf). And weighing in at 9548 sf she’s a biggie and all masonry construction too.

It was previously listed in 05, 06 and 07 for $2,700,000 then $1,950,000 then $2,390,000 then $2,700,000 again. And still it didn’t sell. And adding to its mystique while also showing off its broad appeal, it is reputed to have been owned by Dean Martin and Alice Cooper.
Though, I imagine, not at the same time.

6935 N Mamaronick Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Realty Executives Tucson Elite 4983)

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the most recent sales numbers

Last year at this time under the heading> the most recent home sales numbers are pretty OK < I noted that 65 homes had sold between May 15 & June 15 at an average sale price of  $511,784.

And they’re even more OK this year. Because more homes sold in the same period - 77 sold between May 15 & June 15 (more is better) but they sold for less, (and more is still better) at an average sale price of $445,731. 12.9% less than last year. But the first step to stabilizing and ultimately recovering home prices, is to get more homes sold. Mission accomplished.

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in contract this past week

Reversing a downward trend in the number of homes going to contract over the last few weeks, this past week saw a small uptick in contracts for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills.

14 homes are reported in contract since Monday June 11 (there were 10 the prior week)

11 are priced from $175,000 to $499,000
then one each at $669,900 and $700,000
and the one to beat at $3,500,000 (the highest priced home to go to contract in 3 years)
though we have no idea what the contract price is

and for those keeping score here’s a link to the previous report > contracts down again

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they’re not gathering any moss in Pinnacle Ridge

Last Sunday morning I contacted the listing agent of a house in Pinnacle Ridge that I wanted to show later that day. The house had been on the market for just 5 days but I’d heard thru the grapevine that it already had 3 offers and I wanted to check that out.

And sure enough, the listing agent not only confirmed that they did have three offers, he also emphasized that they were three very strong offers. Well, so much for that. When it sells it’ll be the 7th sale in there in 6 months.

An AF Sterling community built in 2000 – 2003 or 04, Pinnacle Ridge did very well from the minute it opened its doors in 01. But they had a winning formula and they executed it well - great foothills location, district 16 schools, new, nicely built and appointed and moderately priced homes, (at least for the foothills) most in the 3100 to 4000 sf range, and though the lots are smaller, usually less than half an acre, most are laid out with enough space in the backyard for kids to play and a pool. And it’s gated. On the down side it is cookie-cutter, but it’s cookie-cutter done well. 

Most of the first time home sales were direct thru AF Sterling and so they didn’t show up in MLS. But looking at the resale sales starting in 04, Pinnacle Ridge followed the same rise and fall of other foothills communities - for a while in 2009 – 2010 there were quite a few for sale and very few selling and prices fell. But because of its appeal and the scarcity of anything else in the foothills quite like Pinnacle Ridge, I think it’s a no-brainer that it’ll be one of the very first to fully recover from the slide in sales and prices. That is if it hasn’t already.

Just for fun, here are the average sale prices for the homes sold thru the MLS;

2004 – $693,500

2005 – $752,500

2006 – $965,833

2007 – $968,333

2008 -  $1,033,333

2009 – $804,500

2010 – $684,400

2011 – $711,000

2012 – $642,583

So with prices down it looks like a good time to buy, but there’s nothing for sale. Nothing.

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they’re dropping like flies

UPDATE:
OOPS! I spoke too soon. 4521 N Hacienda del Sol which expired this morning is back on the market already. 

4521 N Hacienda del Sol started life in 1956 as a 4000+ sf brick charmer on a gorgeous hilltop lot in the old foothills. But during the boom it was knocked down to make way for a 7,831 sf Mediterranean style spec home that remains unsold after 4 years and expired today at $2,995,000.

The Med styled version was built in 08 and listed in June of that year for $4,295,000. But the party was so over by then. So in September 2010 it was relisted for $3,295,000, whereupon I’d written about it under the irresistible title > this house was listed today <

So this is what, the 4th or 5th high-end dropout in the last 2 weeks.

expired at > 4521 N Hacienda Del Sol Tucson, AZ 85718 <
(Listed by Long Realty)

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not everyone is pinching pennies

In Finisterra an 8921 sf, 2011 built spec home went to contract today listed at $3,500,000.

6151 E Finisterra was first listed in Feb 2010, well before it was completed, for $4,200,000 and held there until just last month when it had its one and only price cut to $3,500,000, and that did the trick. And just when you least expect it. 

This won’t be a record breaking sale for the foothills but assuming it sells for $3mil or more it’ll be up there in the top 10.

Congratulations to all!!

6151 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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of course you can ask whatever you want

And they sure did over at 6021 E Calle De Vita.

It was listed in 01 for $895,000 and didn’t sell, so they upped it to $995,000 in 02, and still no sale.

Then it was off the market until 07 when it came roaring back at $1,595,000, but called it quits 10 months later after dropping to $1,399,000. And once again it was off the market for an extend period before coming back this February at $760,000, and owned by mr. lender, and now reduced to $650,000.

6021 E Calle De Vita Tucson, AZ 85750
(now listed by Real Estate Marketing Professionals)

what’s in contract now

Right now there are 139 single family homes in contract in the Tucson Foothills, while 299 remain for sale

Of the 139 in contract;  (a reminder, for some reason these links only last 30 days, after that it’s kaput)

112  are priced from $0 to $599,999  (162 remain for sale)

  22  are from $600,000 to $999,999 (69 for sale)

   5 are from $1,000,000 & up (68 for sale)

average list price of those in contract is $474,653  vs  $894,772 for the 299 still for sale – a large gap.

And while there are 32 more homes in contract right now than there were at this time last year, the increase is all at the bottom price range ($0 to $599). While $600 to $999k is the same, and at a million and up there are actually 6 fewer homes in contract this year than last.

And those in contract last year were at an average list of $545,711, with those still for sale
were at $786,599 -

So more less expensive homes are going to contract while more expensive homes are being listed but not going to contract, vs last year. Is this because sellers are raising their expectations, & prices, while buyers are lowering theirs. Or what.

here are the June 2011 numbers > what are buyers buying right now

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how low can we go

On June 14th last year I noted,

inventory is down in the Tucson Foothills

Right now we’re down to 396 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills, including 70 listed at $1.0mil & Up.

June 2010 there were 474 single family homes for sale with 104 at $1.0mil+

June 2009 – 559 for sale with 131 at $1.0mil+

June 2008- 558 for sale with 150 at $1.0mil+

Flash forward to Today, June 2012, and we’re down to 299 for sale with 67 at $1.0mil+

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Parlez-vous français?

A survey released Monday showed that the six-year slide in U.S. housing prices, coupled with the rising value of some foreign currencies and continued instability in Europe, is fueling a property-buying binge in the U.S. by wealthy foreigners.

From Nick Timiraos @ WSJ.com

Read all about it > Foreign Purchases of U.S. Homes Rise Strongly

there’s always next year

In the Canyons,

Following in the footsteps of last month’s canceled listing at 3508 E Secret Canyon Place -after trying for $4,200,000 then $3,200,000 since July 2010 – its neighbor at 7391 N Finger Rock Place, listed at $2,795,000 since May 2011, expired today.

And given the disappointing sales in the Canyons these last four years, is it any wonder that sellers are finally pulling in their horns. For the gory details see >  if you’re selling in the Canyons this is not good news,

And last month in Pima Canyon we saw another one calls it quits at $2,495,000

4 homes remain for sale in the Canyons, what’s next.

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contracts down again

This past week, since Monday June 4th, just 10 homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills

the previous week it was 14, the week before 16, the week before that 27, and for the week ending May 13 there were 24 contracts. And what do you say we just blame it on Summer and leave it at that.

Of the 10 in contract this week, 9 were listed at the bottom end of the market - from $225,000 to $575,000 - and then one lucky home owner who was asking $965,000 and, at that, was apparently well priced since it went to contract in just 5 days.

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who you gonna believe

I was poking around looking at foreclosure activity on RealtyTrac and came across a house in Cat 10 at 5025 N Circulo Sobrio that was picked up by mr lender in January but has yet to show its face in the mls. And I noticed that RealtyTrac estimates its value at $1,140,322, which looked a little high to me.

So for the heck of it I checked Zillow and they have it at $940,300, and that feels more like it – but they also estimate that its value increased $24,300 in the last 30 days. And maybe that’s what mr lender is waiting and hoping for. I’d mentioned Circulo Sobrio back in March > waiting for a high-end foreclosure to come along < and at that time Zillow had it at $920,600.
And I tried Trulia but they don’t show it.  
and PS – the problem with C. Sobrio is that it’s the 2nd house just inside the Cat 10 gate so you get all the comings and goings.

Once I got started I was hooked and had to plug a few more houses into RealtyTrac, Zillow and Trulia. Just for the fun of it, of course.

Wells Fargo took back 7898 N Ancient Indian Dr in Pima Canyon in early March and it too is still in the shadow inventory. It was listed last May at $1,200,000 and expired this Feb at $995,000. Yet RealtyTrac estimates its value at $1,461,019. Value to who, I wonder.
And Zillow doesn’t even venture a guess, while Trulia calls it at $872,000 – and I’ll go with that.

And good old 1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, which left the market this January asking $1.1m – and is also lurking in the shadows - is nevertheless estimated by Realty Trac to be worth $1,277,646, while Zillow has it at $1,117,100 – with a mere $1700 increase in value over the last 30 days. That seems way too close  to call, but then Zillow may have a sharper pencil than I do. And breaking from the pack Trulia calls it at $909,000.

Dropping down a notch, 5815 N Pontatoc Rd which expired in the mls last August after failing to get $750,000 - and was foreclosed just last month - is valued at $754,845 by RealtyTrac and at $693,300 by the big Z - who also estimates that its value dropped $20,300 in the last 30 days. How do they know. And Trulia calls it at $533,000.

At the Villages of La Paloma 6138 N Campo Abierto was foreclosed this February - and has yet to return to the market – but is valued at $414,812 by RealtyTrac, at $394,900 by Zillow and this time Trulia took a pass.

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taking a stand against incompetent appraisals

On May 1st I did a piece about a home sale here in the Tucson Foothills that was killed by a low-ball, incompetent appraisal  > another deal killed by another half-assed appraisal <

I wrote;
2321 E Calle Lustre, a pretty great looking remodeled house in the old foothills, went to contract on March 2nd from a $949,000 ($191/sf) list price. And it should have easily appraised. But it didn’t. The appraisal came in substantially below the contract price,
so the deal was killed.

Now I can’t prove to you that it should have appraised, but it should have, easily, and with money left over. It’s a no-brainer. But apparently not to the so-called professional appraiser.

… I understand the sellers are pursuing legal action against the appraiser and the appraisal management company. Good for them, I wish them all the luck and I volunteer to help in any way I can. Something’s got to be done to wake these people up.
_________________________________________________________________________

And the sellers followed through and consulted an attorney who advised them to start off by getting another appraisal and to be certain the appraiser they hire is a certified residential appraiser.

You see there’s a difference between a certified residential appraiser and a licensed appraiser. A certified residential appraiser is an experienced senior appraiser, while a licensed appraiser is a much more junior appraiser with strict limitations on the types of  appraisals she/he may perform.

Nevertheless, the appraiser assigned to Calle Lustre, who botched the appraisal, was a licensed appraiser – a junior appraiser. And according to the Arizona Board of Appraisal licensed appraisers are limited to performing residential appraisals on noncomplex one to four unit residential units having a value of less than one million dollars.

Well the appraiser slipped in under the wire on the value classification, I’ll give them that. 
Calle Lustre was listed at $949,000 and the agreed-to sale price was over $900k but under $1.0mil. 

But there’s more to it. According to The Arizona Board of Appraisal the licensed (junior)appraiser is also limited to the appraisal of noncomplex properties as follows;

Verbatim from the Arizona Board of Appraisals; (my emphasis added)

The licensed residential appraiser classification applies to the appraisal or appraisal review of noncomplex one to four residential units having a value of less than one million dollars and complex one to four residential units having a value of less than two hundred fifty thousand dollars.
"Complex one to four residential units" means property that is atypical for the marketplace. Atypical factors may include architectural style, age of improvements, size of improvements, size of lot,

By those standards Calle Lustre is anything but your typical, noncomplex foothills home. 
It was originally built in 1937 by our most famous architect, Josias Joesler , and then reconfigured and remodeled in the 1960’s by the renowned architect Judith Chafee. And once again, between 2009 to 2011, it was completely remodeled by the current owners. That doesn’t sound the least bit simple, typical or noncomplex to me.

Also, further distinguishing Calle Lustre from the pack, consider that of the 383 homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 6 months, there was just one home sold that was built in the 1930’s. And that too was a Joesler. But there was no renovation done to that home, none. And just two other Joeslers sold, one built in 1953 and another in 1955 – and with no substantial renovations. Just that, the lack of any comparable sales, would seem to easily qualify Calle Lustre as atypical for the marketplace. I wrote about Calle Lustre when it was first listed 
> a Joesler, transformed < 
 

Flash forward;
As I mentioned above, on the advice of their attorney, the sellers hired a certified residential appraiser - who is also a local appraiser that regularly works in the foothills -  in other words someone who is highly qualified - to do a new appraisal. And that appraisal came in well within the range of the agreed-to sale price. And the appraiser noted that because of the pending litigation, she was conservative in her valuation.

The Arizona Board of Appraisal defines the limits for a certified residential appraiser as follows;
The certified residential appraiser classification applies to the appraisal or appraisal review of one to four residential units without regard to value or complexity. (my emphasis)

It sure looks like the appraisal management company ignored the standards set by the Arizona Board of Appraisal and assigned an appraiser who was not qualified for the job.
And as a result the deal was killed, the buyer is long gone and in search of another house, while the sellers have had to start over. And they have incurred a great deal of expense, effort and stress in doing so.

Incompetent appraisals are killing perfectly good transactions in the Tucson Foothills and it’s got to stop. That means that real estate agents, home sellers and buyers need to take a stand and fight back against incompetent appraisals.

2321 E Calle Lustre Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

May home sales & prices

in the Tucson Foothills.
The number of homes sold dropped a tad from April & March but is still ahead of most prior months. 66 sold in May vs. 73 in April & 76 in March. A natural seasonal slowing and nothing to fret about.

And as you can see the average sale price was up in May from previous months this year, and for all but two months (July & December) of  2011. But the median dipped a bit, but just a bit, $9k.

Net-net, there are bound to be variances from month to month but, so far, overall sales and prices are holding up nicely. And just 6 of the 66 sold as foreclosures (from $186,000 to $590,000). I’m less optimistic about June, but we’ll see.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

SOLD, a real contemporary

4905 N Camino Antonio sold today for $1,262,500 ($277/sf) off a $1,500,000 list price.
It also sold in July 2008 for $1,350,000. And given the economic havoc since then, I’d say the sellers did very well today. But they were selling something that’s in very short supply here in the foothills – a real contemporary. And while there are fewer buyers for contemporaries, when a buyer does come along there’s usually very little, if anything, to choose from. (listed by Long Realty) And, coincidentally, Zillow’s most recent Zestimate was $1,258,600. Do we think that had anything to do with the sale price.

This is one of a set of triplets, three virtually identical homes - same architect, builder,size, style, materials and amenities, you name it - that were designed by Don Kornberg and built in 2007 as spec homes along Camino Antonio.

The first one at 4919 N Camino Antonio hit the market in June 06 for $1,795,000 (prior to being completed) and sold lickety-split in April 07 for $1,715,000. So they started off with a bang.

But the second – at 4911 N Camino Antonio -  also listed in June 06 (also prior to being completed) wasn’t quite as lucky. It debuted at $1,695,000, and since it didn’t sell at that price they raised to $1,775,000. But even that didn’t do it. And so it lolled around on the market until February 09 when it was reduced to $1,375,000 and sold for a disappointing $1,050,000. (I wrote about it at the time – sold, for a song)

A similar fate befell today’s sale at 4905 N Camino Antonio. Except that even though it came along a little later than the others it has now sold twice. It was completed and listed in April 07 for $1,795,000 (of course) and by May 08 it had only dropped to $1,645,000, but with two big specs on their hands they caved and accepted an offer of $1,350,000 and it closed in July 08.
Just in the nick of time, well, for the seller anyway.

Here are the sold listings for all three > 4919, 4911 and 4905 Camino Antonio < see if you can tell them apart. And aside from the falling market, maybe that was the problem. Do you really want to spend a $$million something for a clone of the house across the street.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

the dwindling # of homes in contract this past week

week after week we’ve seen a decline in the number of contracts in May;

for the week ending 5/13 24 single family homes went  to contract in the Tucson Foothills

the following week, ending on Sunday 5/20, 27 homes went to contract

then, the slippery slope, for the week ending 5/27 there were 16 contracts

and now we’re down to 14 homes in contract for this past week, ending 6/3

Some of this is due to our usual summer slow-down – unless you really have to do you really want to run around looking at homes when it’s 102. But there’s no doubt that serious economic uncertainty, along with an administration more consumed with politics than results, is weighing heavily on many of us.

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

have you heard

Foreclosures made up 26% of U.S. home sales in first quarter

but, incidentally, they made up just 12% of home sales in the Tucson Foothills, a measly
22 out of 179 total sales

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

Fighting Back Against Lowball Home Appraisals

Appraisal changes enacted in the wake of the financial crisis were designed to eliminate improper pressure on appraisers that often led to inflated valuations during the housing boom. But critics say those changes resulted in unnecessarily conservative valuations and the greater use of appraisers with little knowledge of local market conditions.

Lenders report that "overly pessimistic appraisals caused by appraisers using distressed sales as 'comparables'" are a key reason why deals are falling through, particularly in parts of the Southeastern U.S., says Michael Fratantoni, vice president of research at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

From WSJ.com
Read all about it > Fighting Back Against Lowball Home Appraisals

I’ve harped on this vigorously and often – here and here and here and elsewhere -  because lowball (flawed)  appraisals are killing perfectly good transactions in the Tucson Foothills and it’s got to stop. 

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to find your Tucson Foothills home

talk about a long hot summer

this is bad news on many fronts, including the likelihood of putting another big crimp in home sales here in the foothills. And with the Euro crisis once again near the boiling point it looks as if things are only going to get worse 

Stocks slammed as Dow erases 2012 gains

Jun 01 4:39pm:

Wall Street suffered its bloodiest day of the year Friday as U.S. stocks sank more than 2% following an ugly jobs report. The Dow erased all its gains for the year, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved into correction territory, down more than 10% from the year's highs. More