For the last 5+ years I’ve participated in a monthly housing survey conducted by Credit Suisse that covers 47 markets across the country. In their own words here’s the methodology.
Survey Methodology
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of
local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an
understanding of the existing home market as crucial to homebuilders as it represents
over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the
new home market.
Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives,
inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In September, we received
responses from 900 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and
calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends,
levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend.
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Over the last 5 years or more I’ve watched the results of the survey go from giddy and elated to cautious to worried and finally to downright grim. And then this year the feedback began to inch back up into positive territory.
Here are the results from the September survey for Tucson.
Tucson, AZ
(1,438 single-family permits in 2011, 50th largest market in the country)
Traffic above expectations. Buyer traffic was above expectations in September, as our
traffic index came in at 61 (from 41 in August), above a neutral reading of 50 (readings
greater than 50 suggest traffic exceeded agents’ expectations). 44% of agents said traffic
was above expectations, 34% said it was in-line with expectations, and 22% said it was
below expectations.
Prices higher, incentives lower. Home prices increased in September, as our home
price index came in at 83 (from 67 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, suggesting
higher prices over the last 30 days (readings above 50 point to higher prices). 67% of
agents said prices were higher and 33% said they were unchanged. Meanwhile, incentives
were lower in September, as our incentive index came in at 61 (from 59 in August), above
a neutral reading of 50, with readings greater than 50 pointing to reduced incentives. 56%
of agents said incentives were unchanged, 33% said they were lower, and 11% said they
were higher.
Less time needed to sell a home in September. Our time to sell index came in at 89 in
September (from 77 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, pointing to a reduced time
to sell (readings above 50). 89% of agents said the time to sell a home decreased and
11% said the time to sell increased. We view the reduced time to sell as a positive
indicator for future pricing trends.
Comments from real estate agents:
■ “Low inventories have been creating urgency.”
■ “More and more buyers are afraid to get left out of a recovery in home prices.”
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