The Catalina Foothills

La Paloma vs. Skyline CC vs. Ventana CC

what’s happening, or not happening, in your favorite foothills golf community

here’s a look at what’s for sale, in contract and sold (in the last 6 months), along with low to high prices + the average/median in each category.

	La Paloma	Skyline CC	Ventana
# for sale avg/med list$	21  ($249 – $1.399) $603,700/$530,000	6 ($735 – $3.450)$1,866,667/$1,445,000	29 ($445 – $5.2) $1,232,976/$990,000
# in contract avg/med list$	7  ($238 – $449) $400,257/$435,000	3 ($319 – $1.390) $836,133/$798,500	1 ($335) $335,000/$335,000
# sold avg/med sold$	24 ($220 – $629) $434,698/$422,500	6 ($410 -  $912) $589,000/$526,000	8 ($335 – $1.5) $788,769/$572,500
months inventory	5.25	6	21.75

La Paloma is hitting on all cylinders. Not only because of its lower months of inventory, but also because avg/med sold prices are more aligned with the avg/med prices of homes for sale and in contract than the other two. And nothing to sneeze at either, 3 or 4x as many homes sold in La P as in Skyline or Ventana. And there are more in contract. Plus, the homes for sale in La P are lower priced, with the highest at a modest $1.399, than those in Skyline or Ventana. A few of which are priced where buyers have not dared to tread in years, or even forever.

And looking at Skyline, at first glance you’d think, oh, what a pretty picture. Low inventory and  reasonably good sales = a nice tidy 6 months inventory. But 5 of the 6 sales were well under $1mil while 5 of the 6 homes for sale are well over $1mil – @ $1.175, $1.295, $1.595, $2.950 & $3.450. So you have to wonder how that’s going to work out, especially at $2.950 and $3.450. 

And tucked up into the northeast corner of the foothills is Ventana, with the highest inventory and nearly 4x the months of inventory as the others and, at the moment,  just 1 home in contract at $335,000!  On the other hand Ventana is the only one of the three where homes have actually sold for more than a million$. And not just one, it had three sales over a mil, @ $1.2, $1.375 & $1.5. And of course it also has the highest avg/med sale prices of the bunch.

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location location

I’m not sure what the allure is, but in the last 2 weeks 2 homes that front the entry/exit gate to Ancient Indian in PC have sold.

7898 N Ancient Indian Drive, the X on the left, closed today at $1million even, ($212/sf) for a foreclosure that fronts the entry/exit gate to this 2nd gated area within Pima Canyon. It had been for sale for 9 months as a short sale at $995,000, and did go to contract a couple of times, but fell out each time. As a foreclosure it found a buyer in 50 days, and they stuck with it. 7898 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And that follows the sale just 2 weeks ago, at the X across the street, of 7899 N Ancient Indian Drive for $1,650,000 ($281/sf) after just 7 days on the market. 

7899 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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so far this month

I sometimes get mired in the details of this sale or that contract and a new listing here and another one there and forget about the bigger picture. The what’s happening, or not happening, in the foothills overall picture.

So here’s a snapshot of activity, so far this month, for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills;

115 new listings – at an average/median list price of $606,602/$479,000
(the 115 new listings include about 23 (by rough count) new listings that are really old listings that have been re-listed, but, still, show up as new listings)

90 price cuts – that were listed at an average/median of $582,703/$499,450 and are now  reduced to $531,038/$464,500

65 new contracts – on homes listed at $433,746/$379,000

and 49 homes sold  –  for $466,368/$390,000, with the low $$ sale at $88,000 and the high at $1,650,000, and everything else in between. So these numbers truly are averages.

This is against a backdrop of 366 total homes listed for sale at $779,125/$549,500.

So new listings far outnumbered new contracts,  and were also listed at appreciably higher prices than the 65 new contracts – which tells me that sellers are more optimistic than buyers. Further evidence of that is the 90 price cuts – 24% of total listings.

And at $466,368/$390,000, October sale prices, which are the result of deals made in September or before, are higher than the list prices of current new contracts, ( $433,746/$379,000). And that’s not encouraging.

Because when those new contracts do close they’ll of course close for less than their list price, which will result in a further drop in sale prices. For the year, October sale prices are about in the middle of the pack. 

And finally, the gap between what is selling and what is for sale - the average list price of the 366 homes listed for sale ($779,125) is way higher than the average price of new contracts, new sales and even new listings.

Fun fact - in 2006 the average list price of all homes for sale in the foothills hovered in the $900,000 to $940,000 range – while the average sale price was $685,000ish.

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what goes up …

In Cat 10, 5460 N Placita Taza sold for $510,000 in 03, $890,000 in 06, $755,000 in 09 and $625,000 ($215/sf) today - from a $649,000 asking price that had been reduced from its debut price of $715,000 in late May.

 5460 N Placita Taza Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Reaty)

That’s the cheapest sale price in Cat 10 in the last 6 months, though not the cheapest /sf sale.
That honor rests with an $800k sale on Via de La Granja that went for $180/sf.

The score in Cat 10 is as follows;

3 for sale, $1,195,000, $1,245,000 & $2,000,000.

2 in contract, $999,999 & $1,975,000

and, including this sale, 7 sold in the last 6 months
$625,000, $800,000, $800,000, $807,000, $842,000, $1,035,000, $1,045,000

= a very slim supply, about 2.5 months

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that was fast

In Cat 10, 4341 N Placita Camaleon sold in Feb 2011 for $1,725,000 and is back on the market today at $1,975,000.

but HOLD THE PRESSES, just as I finished writing that sentence Pla Camaleon showed up as under contract. Really. And, phew!, I was just about to put my foot in my mouth and wonder, out loud, about the price. Wouldn’t you. So maybe an hour or two, if that, on the market. But, in reality, I’m guessing it was a done deal before it even hit the market. Some people have all the luck, a super quick no-fuss sale and for more, I assume, than they paid 18 months ago.

It’s amazing what a difference a couple of years makes. When Pla Camaleon was on the market in 09 and 10 it sat for a year before it went to contract. I represented the buyers, but they ended up canceling during the inspection, and not without good reason, and another buyer, the current owners, came along a few months later. I’d mentioned it here> another sale in cat 10

4341 N Placita Camaleon , Tucson, AZ 85718
(quickly listed by Long Realty)

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finally, a real Joesler

4930 N Calle La Vela, a 1936 built Joesler hit the market today.

1.9 acres, 2970 sf, mud adobe, 4 Beds/3.5  Baths, including guest casita, pool, views.
Sold in 05 for $975,000, offered today for $849,000

4930 N Calle La Vela Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

in contract last week (10/15–10/21)

From Monday October 15th thru Sunday October 21st 14 homes went to contract
(this down 9 contracts from the previous week )

12 are priced from $189,900 to $499,900
1 at $750,000
and 1 very attractive Sante Fe in Pima Cyn at $1,545,000

the bottom end is holding its own,

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in it for the long haul

In La Paloma 6321 N Via Acacia is on the market once again – it left in April listed at $899,000 – and is back today at $975,000. Well, we’ll see, someone thinks prices are up.
Via Acacia has been on and off the market for quite a few years asking as much as $1,599,000 and as little as $899,000. And, don’t get me wrong, I’ve always liked this house and shown it a few times in recent years, and mentioned it often, And aside from the old days when it was priced at $$$million++, I’m just not sure why it hasn’t sold.
6321 N Via Acacia, Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

6201 N Whaleback Place in Ventana CC has also been at it for years, apparently trying very carefully to find the right price. It’s now $825,000 down from $875,000 down from $925,000 etc., etc., down from the $1,850,000 it started at in 08. It sold in 2002 for $1,195,000, so maybe its time has finally come. 6201 N Whaleback Place , Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

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psst!, a sale in Cobblestone

Cobblestone has had a tough go of it this year. 8 homes currently for sale, many of them for many moons, + a few dropouts, and now just the 2nd sale of the year.

7377 N McManus Trail, one of the least expensive homes in Cob, listed at $799,000 (with awfully good looking bones, but a top candidate for a stem to stern renovation) went to contract in 8 days and closed today for $780,000. Who’d a thunk it.

I mentioned it here > Tuesday in the Foothills < when it went to contract.

7377 N McManus Trail , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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in La Puerta

La Puerta is a small gated community (maybe a dozen or so homes) off Hacienda del Sol Rd where most of the homes (or maybe all of them), were built by the master builder Mike Wachs. He’s the real thing. They’re also on larger lots than is typical for the Foothills, 2, 3 and 4 acres.

3545 E Calle Puerta De Acero, on 2.88 acres and built by Mr. Wachs, sold for $2,100,000 in 04, was listed for $1,995,000 earlier this year and is today down to $1,795,000 ($291/sf), built 1995, 6166 sq ft., masonry construction, 1 story, Spanish Colonial, 5 car garage.

3545 E Calle Puerta De Acero Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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cash buyers close quick

7240 N Sonya Way, Tucson, AZ 85704 was listed on October 2nd, went to contract on the 8th and closed today for $548,000 from a $575,000 list. Slam-bam!
It was being held open on Sunday the 7th and I stopped by to see it and remarked to the open house agent that it was a lot of house for the money. And I guess it was.  
(listed by long Realty)

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sold, then and now

Wondering where actual home prices are now v. where they were a few years ago. Me too.
So here’s a look at homes that sold sometime between 2000 and 2011 and sold again in the last 2 months in the Tucson Foothills. And to keep things apples to apples I’ve tried my best to eliminate those homes that have had substantial renovations or improvements done since the earlier sale. Also, these are homes that, this time round, were listed for $500k or more. And for the fun of it, and for another opinion, I’ve included Zillow’s Zestimates.

6141 N Camino Almonte, Tucson, AZ 85718 – sold in 2010 for $505,000 and, coincidentally,  for $505,000 this September. (Zillow pegged it at $445,759)

5110 E Calle Barril , Tucson, AZ 85718 – sold in 05 for $980,000 and from mr lenders bargain bin for $485,000 this September. But not before giving it the old college try at $2,495,000 > $1,999,000 > $1,200,000 > and so on. (Zillow says $705,912)

6016 N Campo Abierto Tucson, AZ 85718 did well. It sold for $485,000 in 05 and for $520,000 the other day. (and if they’d listened to  Zillow they’d have taken 463,366)

2815 E Manzanita Avenue , Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $575,000 in 04 and for $545,000 in late August. (no guesstimate from the big Z)

5971 N Via Paloma Silvestre Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $471,980 in 04 and for $527,500 last month. (zillow hit the bulls eye at $527,634)

4560 E Blue Mountain Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718 was able to get $490,000 in 2000 and $540,000 in late August. (Zillow = $576,254)

6171 N Via Del Pichon Tucson, AZ 85718, behind the pearly gates of La Paloma, got $605,000 in 09 and $566,500 the other day. (and if zillow had had their way they’d be looking at $474,096)

6330 E Valle Di Cadore , Tucson, AZ 85750 finally sold for $570,000 in 08 as a foreclosure (after trying for as much as $1,365,000) and for $550,000 last month as a nice, boring, normal sale.  (and zillow is at least in the ballpark at $593,806)

And in Alta Vista, 6760 N Placita Acebo Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for YIKES! $940,000 in 06 and for $650,000, as a short sale, last month. (zillow hit it on the head at $668,031)

Also Alta Vista, 6421 N Placita Alta Reposa , Tucson, AZ 85750, sold for $575,000 in 20000
(12 years) and for $685,000 in late August. ( zillow also won this round @ $698,991)

800 E Via Linterna, Tucson, AZ 85718, in Vista De Las Candelas Estates, sold for the princely sum of $875,000 in 05 (and I don’t say that carelessly, of 55 sales since 1/1/2004, $875k is the highest sale in VDLC) and it sold again for $685,000 in late August. And in my estimation, they were lucky to get that. Vista De Las Candelas had a brief moment or two of wild speculation during the go-go years but is otherwise a community of homes priced mainly in the $3’s, $4’s and $5’s. (zillow called it at $704,394)

Well, I’m not sure about this one. 5269 N Pontatoc Avenue Tucson, AZ 85718, it doesn’t look as if it’s had any substantial improvements since the last sale, but. The décor and the photographs, well, the whole presentation. They’re night and day and so much better for the most recent sale that it doesn’t even look like the same house that sold in 2010. But if you look close it is the same house with all the same stuff. I think.
See for yourself > 2012 listing/sale < and > 2010 listing/sale <. In any case it sold in 2010 for $670,000 and 3 weeks ago for $762,500. Due, I don’t doubt, to a much more attractive presentation. Pictures, description, everything. (zillow - $796,314)

3000 N Webster Avenue Tucson, AZ 85750 is a humdinger. It sold for $710,000 in 01 and so in 07 they listed it for $1,400,000. But it failed to sell, so they relisted for $1,950,000 in 08 (really) and, speak of the devil, it sold today for $742,000. (zillow – $792,794)

5080 N Summit Ridge Road , Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $995,000 in early 06 and for $742,000 last month. (zillow - $762,558)

4903 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,225,000 in 06 and for $876,000 last month.(zillow guessed $819,972)

6175 E Avenida De Chaparron , Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $1,275,000 in 06 and for $900,000 last month. (zillow – $858,228)

6051 N Paseo Zaldivar , Tucson, AZ 85750 - $1,266,000 in 05 and $1,180,000 last month.
(zillow - $1,111,479)

In Cobo on 5.9 acres, 820 E Magee Road, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold in 05 for $1,485,000 and $1,450,000 earlier this month. But not before trying for $3,495,000 and on down.
(zillow - $1,389,795)

That’s it, listed from $500k and up, that’s everything that sold in the last two months and also sold between 2000 – 2011. See them here > 18 sold then and now < (there were 36 total sales from $500k & up)

Patterns, well, just about everyone lost a lot of money. And, so, no wonder buyers are concerned and careful and loathe to risk overpaying. Overall, and with exceptions, it looks to me that we’re hovering between 04 & 05 prices.

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just 13 days

and 7564 N Mystic Canyon Drive, in Pima Canyon, listed at $1,545,000 ($323/sf) is already in contract. And, we have to assume, at pretty close to list price which is within a few shekels of  what it sold for in 05 - $1,550,000.

7564 N Mystic Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

This obviously puts the kibosh on my statement below regarding no upper-end contracts in October. Not only did this go in October, it was just listed in October.

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in contract last week, (10/8 –10/14)

After months of posting weekly reports on the homes that had gone to contract, I took a break after the  August 15th post, but I’m starting it up again today.

From Monday October 8th thru Sunday October 14th 23 homes went to contract

21 are priced from $170,000 to $575,000
then 1 at $638,000 & 1 at $850,000
and a big 0 at $1.0 and UP

Again the big money didn’t show its face. No big money contracts the week before (10/1 – 10/7) either – highest contract that week was a measly $624,900. Barely cracking the bottom of the mid-priced foothills market.

The upper-end had been doing well, had been. And now, recently, for some reason it’s taken a break. Any thoughts on that?

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the market’s improved but don’t kid yourself, it’s not 2006

At least for prices, it’s not.
  4550 N SCENIC MOUNTAIN Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $625,000 in 2006 and for $480,000 today.
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona 4783)

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a snapshot of our lopsided recovery

here’s a look at the number of single family homes sold that were  listed from $0 – $999,999 in the Tucson foothills during the period of January 1st to October 11th, for the years 2006 to 2012.

 

and for homes listed from $1,000,0000 and UP

So for 2012, sales of homes listed under a million $$$ are up 9% from 2006, and up a whopping 46% from  2009.

While sales of homes listed over a million $$$ are down 58% from 2006 and up a teensy 2.4% from 2009.

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it’s one of a kind

If you missed it the 1st or 2nd time round, no worries, 3700 E Rose Peak Place is back in play today and looking better than ever - listed at $2,950,000 ($420/sf).

 

It first sold in 05 for what, apparently, looked like a bargain price to the buyers who paid $2,100,000 for it - even though the interior was pretty much raw space. No finished floors, cabinetry, doors, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and an elevator shaft but no elevator, etc., etc. They then proceeded to finish it, but with no elevator and other stuff, and listed it for $5,500,000 in September 07, and sold it for $1,403,000 in September 09 as a very short sale.
Now those buyers got a bargain. A steal really.

Personally, I’ve always been crazy about this house (so take my comments with a grain of salt) - the unique minimalist yet dramatic architecture, the nothing short of spectacular views,
and more - and written about it often over the years, including when it last sold - no WOW house to kick around anymore.

And though I’ve yet to see it in person in its latest guise, from what I can see, it appears these owners have put some thought and money into it and improved upon what was there.

3700 E Rose Peak Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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if you want it right away you have to pay

In Pima Canyon 7899 N Ancient Indian Drive was listed on 8/13 for $1,695,000 ($289/sf)
(as noted here) and went to contract on 8/20 (as noted here) and closed yesterday for $1,650,000 $281/sf – 97.3% of list.

As I mentioned when it was listed, Consensos Ventures Llc picked it up in a trustee sale for $1,205,00, cheap-cheap, in June, to flip, and stood to make a tidy and maybe even quick profit. And that they did.

7899 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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gone in 40 days

In Ventana CC,  6470 N Thimble Pass sold today for $1,500,000 ($293/sf), from a $1,795,000 list, in 40 days. And this was the 2nd contract to come its way, the 1st, which came after just 22 days, fell thru.

I thought they’d get more for this house, and maybe they did on the 1st offer. But if you look at recent high-end sales in Ventana the price kinda makes sense, and they may have been concerned that it wouldn’t appraise for much more. And justifiably, of the 4 sales above a $$million in the last 6 months this one is tied for the highest sale price and at $293/sf is the highest $$/sf sale. In any case, getting 2 offers at $1.5ish in 40 days is saying something.

When it went to contract the 1st time I’d mentioned it here > that was fast

6470 N Thimble Pass Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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Can't Sell? Try Asking More

In a bid to attract trophy hunters, some high-end sellers are taking a counterintuitive and risky step: raising the price.

From WSJ.com
By CANDACE JACKSON

Amid signs of a rebound in the luxury-housing market, some sellers are trying a bold, if risky, tactic: raising their prices. According to online housing tracker Zillow.com, Z -3.12% 436 listings priced over $1 million in the New York metro area on the market as of late August had raised their prices over the prior 12 months, compared with 266 for the same period two years prior. In the Miami-Fort Lauderdale metro area, 5% of listings priced above a million dollars had an increase in the recent period, compared with 2.3% two years prior.

Pricing homes at the extreme high end of the market is a somewhat subjective, and often irrational, process. Because there are so few similar properties for sale, and the homes are often unique, it's difficult to set a standard for a pricing scale, brokers say. For a home priced above $30 million, a "reasonable" price may be in the eye of the beholder.

Ravi Dhar, director of Yale's Center for Customer Insights and a professor of management, marketing and psychology, says consumers will generally use the original price of an object as their reference point. But for homes seen as unique, raising the price instead of lowering it can tap into consumer psychology. Buyers might "infer that because the price went up, there must be a lot of demand," he says. "There are various ways of signaling scarcity and uniqueness, and then slicing and dicing this, and real-estate agents are great at this."

 

Read all about it; Can't Sell? Try Asking More

On occasion we’ve seen this strategy employed here in the Foothills on run of the mill $milllion+ homes, though, as I recall, with no success. But also, aside from Campbell Cliffs when it was asking $22,000,000, we don’t have anything in the super high-end, where money is no object, to test this theory.

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for what it’s worth

For the last 5+ years I’ve participated in a monthly housing survey conducted by Credit Suisse that covers 47 markets across the country. In their own words here’s the methodology.

Survey Methodology
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of
local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an
understanding of the existing home market as  crucial to homebuilders as it represents
over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the
new home market.
Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives,
inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In September, we received
responses from 900 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and
calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends,
levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend. 
_________________________________________________________________________

Over the last 5 years or more I’ve watched the results of the survey go from giddy and elated to cautious to worried and finally to downright grim. And then this year the feedback began to inch back up into positive territory. 

Here are the results from the September survey for Tucson.

Tucson, AZ
(1,438 single-family permits in 2011, 50th largest market in the country)
Traffic above expectations. Buyer traffic was above expectations in September, as our
traffic index came in at 61 (from 41 in August), above a neutral reading of 50 (readings
greater than 50 suggest traffic exceeded agents’ expectations). 44% of agents said traffic
was above expectations, 34% said it was in-line with expectations, and 22% said it was
below expectations.

Prices higher, incentives lower. Home prices increased in September, as our home
price index came in at 83 (from 67 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, suggesting
higher prices over the last  30 days (readings above 50 point to higher prices). 67% of
agents said prices were higher and 33% said they were unchanged. Meanwhile, incentives
were lower in September, as our incentive index came in at 61 (from 59 in August), above
a neutral reading of 50, with readings greater than 50 pointing to reduced incentives. 56%
of agents said incentives were unchanged, 33% said they were lower, and 11% said they
were higher.

Less time needed to sell a home in September. Our time to sell index came in at 89 in
September (from 77 in August), above a neutral reading of 50, pointing to a reduced time
to sell (readings above 50). 89% of agents said the time to sell a home decreased and
11% said the time to sell increased. We view the reduced time to sell as a positive
indicator for future pricing trends.

Comments from real estate agents:
■ “Low inventories have been creating urgency.”
■ “More and more buyers are afraid to get left out of a recovery in home prices.”

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one year ago today

under the headline > what are buyers buying right now, < I wrote;

The short answer is, not much.

Since October 1st a grand total of 8 single family homes have gone to contract in the Tucson Foothills - many fewer than you might expect for this time of year.

And then there’s the price thing - all 8 are huddled in the $219,000 to $485,000 range – with not even a crumb going to the remaining 184 for sale priced from $486k to just under $8mil. That’s it!

Today, with 21 homes going to contract since October 1st, we’ve trounced last year’s record. Left it in the dust. But in the price thing the 21 contracts run just a tad higher than last October, from $143,900 to $624,900 - with nary a crumb going to the remaining 155 for sale priced from $625,000 to just under $8mil. That’s early October for you.

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it’s official, it’s safe to go back in

Economists have declared Housing recovery finally here

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's been a long time coming, but economists surveyed by CNNMoney believe the nation's housing market has finally turned the corner.

Of the 14 economists who answered questions about home prices in the survey, nine believe that prices have already turned higher or will make that turn later this year. Only three months ago, half of the economists surveyed by CNNMoney believed a turnaround in prices would not take place until 2013 or later.

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how’s the Tucson Foothills market doing

Currently there are 354 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills and 111 in contract.  And that would appear to be an active, healthy market, and it is, pretty much, but it’s much healthier at some price points than others.

The homes for sale run the gamut from $170,000 to $7,900,000. While the contracts run from $88,000 to $1,975,000. (conspicuously missing is anything in contract at $2.0 and up).

Here’s how it breaks down by price;

$0 to $599,999 – 90 in contract & 200 for sale

$600,000 to $999,999 – 15 in contract & 84 for sale

$1,000,000 to $1,499,999 – 2 in contract & 34 for sale

$1,500,000 to $1,999,999 – 4 in contract & 19 for sale

$2,000,000 & UP – 0 in contract & 17 for sale

They’re not, but IF the contracts were sales there would be a 2.2 month supply of homes listed at $0 to $599,999,   5.6 months supply at $600,000 to $999,999,  17 months at $1.0 to $1.499,  4.75 months at $1.5 to $1.999,  and a glut at $2.0 and up.

No doubt, overall the market has improved quite a bit, but the lower-end is still carrying a disproportionate share of the load – fact; 81% of all the homes in contract are listed from 
$0 to $599,999 – while just 56% of the homes for sale are listed from $0 – $599,999.

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random sales data

for single family homes listed at a $$$mil + in the Tucson Foothills and sold from Jan 1 thru Sept 30, this year, last year and the year before; (average/median sold price)

This year – 42 sold at $1,335,487/$1,256,250

last year – 38 sold at $1,303,746/$1,187,500

the year before – 40 sold at $1,324,913/$1,162,500

So the numbers have inched up a bit, but just, and, so, no game changers. On the other hand, the numbers have inched up, not down. That is the game changer.

Alright, how about more recent sales listed at  $$$mil+. Let’s look at the 3rd Qtr. - 
July – August – September, for this year, last year and 2010

this year – 10 sold at $1,464,800/$1,286,500

last year – 12 sold at $1,303,167/$1,195,000

the year before – 14 sold at $1,246,250/$1,124,500

better yet, not only have sold prices improved vs. previous years, they’re also up vs. earlier this year. (Jan 1 thru June 30 the average/median sold was $1,367,269/$1,210,000. And that’s our high season here in the Foothills, while July – August – September is the 102 in the shade low season)

Why, because the market has improved, not the least of which is attributable to the 6 distress sales (of 12 total) listed/sold at a $$$mil+ last year vs. no mil+ distress sales this year. Not yet anyway.

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have you heard,

 Home prices rise in all but 6 states - So says MSN real estate  

The latest CoreLogic statistics demonstrate the unevenness of the housing-market recovery.
Prices rose 18.2% in Arizona, but fell 2.6% in Rhode Island.

The latest statistics from CoreLogic found that home prices nationwide increased 4.6% from August 2011 to August 2012, the biggest year-over-year increase since July 2006.

These are the states that showed the greatest home-price appreciation from August 2011 to August 2012:

• Arizona, 18.2%

• Idaho, 10.4%

• Nevada, 9%

• Utah, 8.9%

• Hawaii, 8%
  

And the six states where prices continued to decline were:

• Rhode Island, 2.6%

• Illinois, 2.3%

• New Jersey, 1.4%

• Alabama, 0.7%

• Connecticut, 0.5%

• Kentucky, 0.3%.

And while it appears that prices also rose a bit here in the Tucson Foothills, and even though we are in AZ, it was not 18%.  Thank goodness.

Here’s a look at average/median sold prices for the 3rd Qtr
July – August – September of 2011 vs. 2012.

2011 – 159 sold at $456,013/$370,000

2012 – 193 sold at $468,260/$390,000

So, along with a 23% jump in the number of homes sold, there was a relatively modest
2.7% & 5.4% bump in average & median sold prices vs last year.

I imagine that much of the 18% bump in AZ prices is due to the selloff of a gazillion or more foreclosures in the Phoenix area last year vs.many fewer foreclosures and more normal sales, at not quite such bargain prices, this year.

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$9 million off and still it hasn’t sold

Campbell Cliffs, the top-of-the-heap for high-end Foothills real estate, has expired unsold at $12,950,000. It started out in 06 and 07, when it was listed for $22,000,000, and then left the market until last December when it reappeared at $15,900,000.

It’s a spectacular house in an incomparable setting, and I don’t imagine you could come close to buying the 6.6 acres and building it for $12mil, but there doesn’t appear to be a market for a 25,000 sf house in the Tucson Foothills. So how do you get around that.

7474 N Catalina Ridge Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

I wrote about it a few times over the years, most recently, and adoringly, here > Campbell Cliffs <

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it’s been a long time coming

Listed in January 2011 at $1,095,000 and eventually reduced to $925,000 2321 E Calle Lustre sold yesterday for the bargain price of $842,500 ($169/sf). What a deal, I think. But when a house sits on the market for that long it loses some of its allure. And buyers wonder, “… why hasn’t it sold”, “how come no one else …”. And, inevitably, the sale price suffers. And by that time the sellers are often at the end of their rope and just want out. And a bargain is born.

In August, when it went to contract, I mentioned it here > 2321 E Calle Lustre is in contract <

Calle Lustre had a double whammy though. It went to contract in March and the deal fell thru because of a bum appraisal.  > another deal killed by another half-assed appraisal <  so they had to start all over again, but now with the taint of the low appraisal hanging over it.

 2321 E Calle Lustre Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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new on the market, 6.7 acres in Cobo

that also includes a 6,003 sf house, possibly a teardown, but what do expect for $675,000. It’s at the northwest boundary of Cobo and backs up to the Coronado National Forest.

And from the listing:
This property is being sold in ''As Is, Where Is'' condition by the Pima County Attorney's Office, Forfeiture Division. There will be no SPDS or CLUE report; utilties may not be available during the Buyer's Inspection period due to safety concerns. This is a luxury residence with good architectural features that has been stripped of HVAC, plumbing, electrical fixtures, cabinetry and appliances. Excellent upside as a Fix-Up. The property has a large outdoor entertainment area and backs up to the National Forest on the north.

8101 N Sendero de Juana Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by  The Havins Co., Inc 1449) I’ve never seen that name before

and btw, our friends at Zillow value it at $1,176,163

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when the market speaks it usually pays to listen up

the listing information for a short sale listed at $499k contains the following guidance from the listing agent;

Approved Short sale, no low offers please, the bank has rejected several offers and will not look at anything lower than $475K.

no low offers, what a kick, meanwhile, the house has been on the block for 9 months and in that time 71 homes have sold from $400,000 to $475,000.

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they said it couldn’t be done

And, well, they were right.
In Cobo Catalina hills, 820 E Magee Road was listed in October 2008 (YIKES!) for $3,495,000, after selling for $1,485,000 in 2005. And 4 years, numerous price adjustments and 3 listing agents later, it finally sold today for $1,450,000. And that’s 5582 sf on 5.9 acres.

820 E Magee Road Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

September home sales and prices in the Tucson Foothills

Home sales dropped in September to 46 single family homes, down from 74 sold in August, and in the bottom tier of sales since this chart began in Jan 2011. And while September is rarely a gangbuster month for sales, following, as it does, the dead of summer months of July and August, this September is tied with last September, which was a particularly dismal month during a particularly dismal time.

On the other hand sold prices held up pretty well. 
At $480,614/$397,500 (average/median) September sold prices are within reach of the top tier of sold prices since Jan 2011.

Last month was just the opposite, sales were up and prices were down from the previous month >  August home sales and prices in the Tucson Foothills

46 homes Sold In September

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taking a little R&R

and clearing my head in beautiful northern Arizona. I’ll be back at the grindstone tomorrow,

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