The Catalina Foothills

upping the ante on Sabino Mountain

Earlier this month in a post titled < an uphill battle on Sabino Mountain > I noted the disparity in prices between the homes listed for sale, in contract and sold on SM. And now another new listing, at $1,395,000, has hit the market, raising to 5 the number of homes listed at a $$million or more - from $1,185,000 to $1,800,000 - yet the last sale at a $$million or more was back in April 2009.

for sale, in contract & sold on Sold

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just sold

a link to all (59) single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days

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in Cobo Catalina Hills

1001 E Magee Road has dropped another $100 thou to $1,750,000.

That’s for a 2006 built, 6755 sf, concrete block construction on 6.5 acres. Cobo is adjacent to the west border of Pima Canyon and is community of homes on 3.3 acres or larger, and many are larger, that can’t be divided. And new construction like this is fairly rare in Cobo.

This one started out almost 2 years ago at $2.9.

Last sale in Cobo was just last month for a place that also started out with high hopes ($3,495,000) and after 4 years settled for $1,450,000 – 5582 sf on 5.9 acres.

Cobo’s not for everyone, but if you want to spread out and not be on top of your neighbors, and still be close to where the action is in the foothills, such as it is, it’s pretty special.

1001 E Magee Road Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s Int Realty)

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are we doing better now than we were last year at this time

Let’s see, for the 30 days from October 27 to November 27, 2011 vs. 2012

2011 - 45 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30 days (368 for sale)
2012 - 55 sold last 30 days (364 for sale)

2011 – 31 sold from $0 to $599,999 (212 for sale)
2012 – 45 sold    ”      “       “  ” ”     (204 for sale)

2011 – 12 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 (80 for sale)
2012 -  7 sold     “           “        “      “        (79 for sale)

2011 - 2 from $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 (41 for sale)
2012 - 2 sold       “      “       “          “     (38 for sale)

2011- nothing sold from $1.5 - $2.0 or from $2.0 & up   (35 for sale)
2012 – 1 sold $1.5 – $2.0 & nothing from $2.0 & up     (43 for sale)

2011- avg/med sold price for all 45 sales was $450,751/$384,000
2012 - avg/med sold price for all 55 sales was $460,716/$390,000

Other than a 45% increase in sales at the lower-end, which is big, and a teensy increase in overall avg/med sale prices, everything else is pretty much the same.

Yawn!

from November 2011 > supply & demand in the Tucson Foothills

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at the right price …

Listed in late 08 at $1,995,000 ($437/sf) and reduced and reduced, eventually to $1,245,000 ($244/sf), 5120 N Hacienda Del Sol Road is now in contract.

5120 N Hacienda Del Sol Road Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by  Long Realty)

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a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market up to $599,999

Listed from $0 to $599,999 there are;

206 homes for sale @  an average/median list of $399,819/$399,000

98 in contract @  $366,146/$357,400

335 sold in last 6 months @  $349,187/$340,000

= a skimpy 3.7 months inventory

and looking at the last 30 days;

83 listed @  $373,988/$374,900

63 to contract listed @  $376,659/$369,000

52 sold @  $331,352/$355,000

= just under 4 months inventory

No matter how you look at it, at this price range, it’s a sellers market in the Tucson Foothills. 
Whether for the last 30 days or the last 6 months, we have robust sales, low inventory, and homes selling close to list price.

The 335 sold in the last 6 months were listed @ an average $363,379 and sold @
$349,187 – 96% of list price.

The 52 sold in the last 30 days were listed @ average $347,190 and sold @
$331,352 – 95.4% of  list price.

Much less robust is the $$$million+ market a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market at a million $$ and up

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in contract last week, (11/12–11/18)

From Monday November 11th thru Sunday November 18th just 15 homes went to contract
(22 the previous week)

and the prices were nothing to brag about either,
14 were priced from $150,000 to $650,000
+ 1 lonely contract at $1,340,000

the average/median list price of the 15 contracts is $488,313/$400,000

vs.  $817,563/$549,450 for the 368 still for sale.
Where’s the big money gone,

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congratulations are in order

for house that’s been on the market for a long-long time and is now, finally, in contract. It’s a house that is now in the $900k range, that was in the $1.6mil range (almost 6 years ago when it started) that has, after 6 years of on and off the market, found a buyer.

And it’s a house that I wrote about 3 or 4 times and showed at least 3 or 4 times, a house that everyone seemed to really like, including me (but not until it got down to $1.1 or so) but for some reason, until now anyway, no one really wanted to buy.

But I’m going to hold off on giving the address because I don’t want to jinx it.

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get your foot in the door in Cat 10

But just. 3525 E Entrada Del Sol could be the ticket. It’s newly renovated and enlarged from 1004 sf to 1819 sf - back in the day it was the sales office for Cat 10. And as such it sits cheek to jowl with the entry/exit gate, though somewhat hidden behind its own gate and wall. And for $425,000 …

3525 E Entrada Del Sol Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

 

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they’re not gathering any moss in Pima Canyon

Two more sales in PC

7564 N Mystic Canyon Drive, a good looking Sante Fe, a contemporary or modified Sante Fe, sold yesterday for $1,490,000 ($312/sf) from a $1,545,000 list after just 13 days.
It last sold in 05 for $1,550,000.

And today, 7756 N Canyon Spirit Way, a SW contemporary, went for $1,175,000 ($284/sf) from a $1,295,000 list in 27 days.

7564 N Mystic Canyon Drive and 7756 N Canyon Spirit Way Tucson, AZ 85718
(both listed by Long Realty)

That’s 8 sold in the last 6 months @ average/med sold of $1,375,063/$1,325,000.
And with 8 homes remaining for sale there’s a tidy 6 months inventory @ an average/med list  of $1,444,925/$1,097,500. A nicely balanced market high end market.

and 17 have sold since Jan 1, and that’s a lot.
During the same period in white hot market of 2006 there were 19 sales in PC.

also, upper-end buyers like Pima Canyon

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an uphill battle on Sabino Mountain

Gearing up for the upcoming winter selling season, I suppose, Sabino Mountain has had a few notable new listings lately.

Overall there are 9 homes for sale – with 3 of them new listings – @ $1,185,000, $1,390,000 and just today @ $1,436,000 + a 4th, listed two months ago, @ $1,800,000 - these four recent listings are also the four highest priced listings on the mountain, by a bunch. 
The average/median list price for all 9 comes in @ $1,006,989/$895,000.

And then there are 5 in contract (though the highest priced in this group, at $900k, is a short sale that’s been in, out and in, contract since last January, so, …). 
The average/median for this group is $452,959/$349,900.

And, lastly, there have been 6 sales in the last six months for an average/median sale price of $373,083/$323,500, with the highest sale @ $610,000.

For sale, under contract and sold on Sabino  Mountain

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another big sale in Finisterra

6241 E Vista Del Canon sold yesterday for $1,900,000 ($325/sf).

It  was listed in January at $1,975,000, and with no price cuts went to contract at the end of July, at which time I mentioned it here > big contract in Finisterra <

For the year, that’s 7 down and 5 to go + 1 in contract in Finisterra. And, oddly enough, this sale and one other recent sale at $2,500,000 were the two highest priced homes listed in Finisterra, and amongst the 5 highest priced homes to sell in the foothills this year. The $2.5 sale is the highest sale this year, and not a squeaker either, by $450k.

6241 E Vista Del Canon Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by long Realty)

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4 years, 4 listing agents and, bingo!, a sale

Sold in December 2005 for $1,303,575 and listed in December 2008 for $1,650,000, 
4411 Camino Sumo, the poster child for capricious overpricing, finally sold yesterday for $950,000. Did I say capricious overpricing, well, as an example, after 4 months and no sale at $1,650,000 they raised it to $1,750,000, in April 09 no less.

But 4411 has been good to me, a constant source of juicy material, most recently > the well trodden path to a distress sale <  but all good things come to an end. Amen.

4411 Camino Sumo , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

 

priced to sell, finally

In Ventana CC, 6351 N Whaleback Place sold for $1,150,000 in 2004 and was listed today for $1,047,000. But not before trying, with no success, for $1,645,000 and $1,399,000 in 08  and 09.

6351 N Whaleback Place , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market at a million $$ and up

Overall there are;

79 homes for sale @  $1,946,128/$1,550,000

8 in contract @  $1,551,875/$1,467,500

19 sold in last 6 months @  $1,484,763/$1,325,000

= 25 months of inventory

in the last 30 days

21 listed @  $2,019,182/$1,522,500

5 to contract @  $1,550,000/$1,545,000

1 sold @  $1,000,000  - & with 79 for sale

= 79 months of inventory 

It’s encouraging that 5 homes have gone to contract in the last 30 days, so maybe things are picking up again, we’ll see. But with just 1 sold & 79 for sale, and with more high-end homes getting listed everyday, and the stock market not cooperating & the fiscal cliff looming, I’m less than gung-ho.

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in contract last week (11/5–11/11)

From Monday November 5th thru Sunday November 11th 22 homes went to contract
(6 more than the previous week  including 2 above a million$$$)

19 were priced from $189,900 to $599,000
1 at $725,000
and 1 each at $1,295,000 & $1,595,000

the average/median list price for those 22 contracts - $492,655/$399,950
the average/median list of the 366 still for sale - $810,852/$574,900, hmmm!

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how’s the Tucson Foothills market doing right now

Currently there are 369 single family homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills and 124 homes in contract. So 33% of the number of homes for sale are in contract. And even though some of those contracts will undoubtedly fall out of escrow, current contracts vs. current inventory is the latest and best indicator of today’s market. It’s what’s happening now.

Overall the numbers point to a fairly healthy market. But broken down by price range, the market is obviously much healthier at some price points than others. What else is new.

Let’s have a look;

$0 to $599,999 – 101 in contract & 207 for sale
= whopping 49% of the number of the homes for sale are in contract (hot hot)

$600,000 to $999,999 – 15 in contract & 86 for sale
= 17% of the number for sale are in contract (not)

$1,000,000 to $1,499,999 – 4 in contract & 35 for sale
= 11% of the number for sale are in contract (ugh!)

$1,500,000 to $1,999,999 – 4 in contract & 22 for sale
= 18% of the number for sale are in contract (not hot, but, for $1.5 & up, not bad)

$2,000,000 & UP – 0 in contract & 19 for sale
= 0% (ugh ugh!)

= 81% of all the homes currently in contract are listed for under $600,000.

Looking even more recently, since Nov 1st, 56 homes have been listed for sale at an average/median list of $889,174/$450,000 – and 29 homes have gone to contract at an average/median of $503,355/$400,000. Quite a gap.

So we’re building inventory of higher priced homes while, for now anyway, the great majority of buyers continue to huddle at the lower end. That’s how the market’s doing.

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in contract last week (10/29–11/4)

I know, I’m late with this, sorry, it was a hectic week.

From Monday October 29th thru Sunday November 4th 16 homes went to contract
(the same as the previous week )

but worse yet,
15 of them were priced from $170,900 to $560,000
+ 1 (o-n-e) at $795,000, and that’s it. Not a single contract for the 115 priced above $795k.

meanwhile, there were 42 new listings and 23 price cuts and total inventory for single family homes is 371.

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someone went for it

Yesterday I wrote about a new listing in Cat 10 > once sold for $2,900,000, can now be yours for $1,595,000 < and ended the post saying ‘Go for it’, and someone did and today it’s in contract.

Of course the sellers could have made that deal two years ago if they’d listened to the market rather than trying to beat it.

4331 N Placita Camaleon Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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once sold for $2,900,000, can now be yours for $1,595,000

or maybe less, with some hardnosed negotiating.

4331 N Placita Camaleon, the highest sale ever in Cat 10 (sold for $2,900,000 in Feb 08) was listed the other day for $1,595,000. And that, finally, seems to be in the ballpark.

I have a special fondness for this house. 10 months after it sold for $2.9 the new owners listed it for $3.125mil - in December 08. Of course it went nowhere, and aside from the unfortunate timing, it just wasn’t a $2.5 or $3million house, ever. In my opinion the $2.9 buyer grossly overpaid, and perhaps thought someone else would come along and do the same. But no one did and by the spring of 2010 it was down to $2.650m – geez, what a deal - and representing a buyer I submitted an offer for $1,500,000 – what nerve - which was, not surprisingly, swiftly rejected.

But I kept at it for a bit and did everything I could to help them understand the reality of the market and why the house was, at best, a $1.6ish property, but that went nowhere as well. And a few months later it was pulled from the market only to return the other day at $1,595,000. Go for it.

4331 N Placita Camaleon , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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every once in a while something really special comes along

''Hacienda Rosetta Marie'', a one of a kind recreation of a centuries old Mexican hacienda, was  just listed.

 

 

Built 1999, 6,842 sf, 3 Beds – 6 Baths, masonry construction, 1.67 acres, 1 story, in the Canyons, $4,395,000

7288 N Cloud Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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upper-end buyers like Pima Canyon

Listed 3 weeks ago for $1,295,000, 7756 N Canyon Spirit Way in PC, is already in contract.
This is just the latest in a very strong showing for PC.

For homes in gated communities listed at $1.0+, there’ve been 15 sales in the last 6 months;

6 were in Pima Canyon
1 in Cat 10
1 in Finisterra
2 in the Canyons
3 in Ventana
1 in Sin Vacas
1 in Hacienda del Sol

7756 N Canyon Spirit Way Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

and PS- in the last 30 days just 3 homes listed at $1.0+ have gone to contract anywhere in the Foothills, gated & non-gated, and 2 of them are in PC.

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October home sales and prices in the Tucson Foothills

There’s no predicting, for no apparent reason sales are up one month and down the next.
It’s just the way it is. This month they’re up. Yeah!
But if you look at sales/month for 2012  vs. 2011 there is a pattern. Sales are UP this year vs. last. So far this year, thru October, 691 single family homes have sold in the Tucson Foothills – same period last year saw 565 sales.

 

 

Sale prices have been following the same unpredictable and unsteady course. Up, down, …
But unlike the overall improvement in the number of homes sold this year vs. last, sold prices are at best a mixed bag. October’s sold prices are lower than every month this year going back to March and are also way lower than last October. And overall prices are down a bit from last year.

So far this year, thru October, average/median sold prices are $459,873/$370,000 – same period last year they were $468,162/$385,000.

 

And given the average/median list prices of the homes in contract, ($478,613/$399,450), and assuming they’ll sell for about 5% less, for now anyway, it doesn’t look like sold prices are about to take off

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and Cathedral Rock makes 9

3460 E Cathedral Rock Place showed up today as a new listing in Cobblestone, joining 8 other homes trying for a sale up there – many of which have been at it for many moons. Meanwhile there’s been just one, el cheapo, for Cobblestone, sale in 6 months and there’s nothing in contract. And Cobblestone is a beautiful community with incredible views in a great foothills location. So what’s the problem.

The current lineup in Cob starts at $749k then jumps to $1.1 and on up to $1.6. – which, on the face of it, is very much inline with other luxe gated communities in the foothills.

Yet 16 homes priced from $1.1 to $1.6 have sold in other communities in the foothills in the last 6 months – and they sold from $1mil to $1.450. But, and here I think is the catch, most of them (13) were built from 1999 or later and 7 were built from 2005 or later.

While 8 of the 9 for sale in Cob were built from the early/mid 80’s to the mid 90’s, and many of them retain features (kitchens/baths, etc) reminiscent of that era. And most buyers spending a million$$ or more want more up-to-date stuff and are not looking to sign-up for a remodeling or renovation project, but if and when they do they’re doing so with a very sharp pencil.

And, by the way, 3460 Cathedral Rock appears to have been updated/remodeled, so we’ll see if that makes the difference.

For sale in Cobblestone
(and listed by various brokers)

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in contract last week (10/22–10/28)

From Monday October 22nd thru Sunday October 28th 16 homes went to contract
(if you’re counting, this is 2 more than the previous week )

12  are priced from $200,000  to $585,000
3 from $750,000  to $873,700
and 1 at $1,975,000

meanwhile, there were 43 new listings and 32 price cuts

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what’s new

7 new listings from $354,900 to $6,250,000. Yes, $6,250,000, but hey, it’s in Canyon Ranch.

7 price cuts from $189,000 to $925,000. The $925,000 is 6321 N Via Acacia, listed just 10 days ago for $975,000, is now $925,000.

and Whoopie! , 2 contracts, at $235,000 & $425,000

5 sold, from $247,000 to $825,000. But of course those are from deals made a month or more ago.

not an auspicious start for November.

For the last couple a months the inventory has been creeping up, we’re now at 368 for sale – in August we were at 280ish. Why? Because the pace of contracts and, consequently, sales has slowed while more new listings continue to enter the market, encouraged by what had been an increase in activity.

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real estate always goes up

tell that to the people that paid $345,000 - in 2000 - for 5825 N Golden Eagle Drive and sold it today for $337,500. And in Ventana C. C. no less.

And it wasn’t for lack of trying, or because they tried too hard and overpriced it. No.They listed it in March for a very reasonable $375,000 and didn’t get an offer until September, and $337,500 is what the market would bear.

5825 N Golden Eagle Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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