The Catalina Foothills

Happy New Year

the latest sale along Hacienda del Sol Road

It took a while but it’s finally a done deal for the sellers of 5120 N Hacienda Del Sol Rd.
It started out in November 2008 at $1,995,000 and sold the other day for $1,140,000 ($224/sf) - from its most recent list price of $1,245,000. Disappointing I’m sure. And it’s such a beautiful house too, how could it take so long?

Well, aside from starting out in the fall of 08 at $1,995,000, I’m guessing that buyers were not enamored with its proximity to Hacienda del Sol Road. People who are spending that kind of money have options and, in my experience, being close to the road is not where they want to be. And while it is officially in Cat 10, it is not within the gated area of Cat 10, it’s on the periphery.

 
But at the right price the road and other annoying features tend to fade away. And at this price you couldn’t even come close to building this house – 2004 built, 5092 sf of masonry construction – no  way. 

But this is just the latest to sell for a pittance along Hacienda del Sol Rd. I called it '”the street of broken dreams” in a post a couple of years ago. During the boom there were quite a few homes built along Hacienda del Sol and not this one, but many of them were spec homes, and every one of them took forever to sell and ended up selling for a pennies on the $$, some as foreclosures and short sales. Road kill.

5120 N Hacienda Del Sol Road Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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sold and sold again

The market has improved and more homes are selling, and in some cases prices may even be rising a teensy bit, but for those who bought from 2003 or 04, up thru 2011, they are still very likely to take a hit if they sell now. The question is how big a hit. And that depends on when you bought – the worst years were 06 & 07 which, back then, looked like the absolute best years -  and of course on how good or not so good a deal you made when you bought (with hindsight, almost no one got a good deal back then, you either overpaid or you grossly overpaid). Here are a few homes that sold back then and sold again in the last few weeks in the Tucson Foothills. OUCH!

The sellers paid $625,000 in 2005 for 4321 E Havasu Road and sold it today for $378,500. 
(listed by Long Realty)

6300 N CAMINO ARTURO sold for for $499,000 in 05 and for $444,000 the other day. (listed by Long Realty)

6413 E Calle De Mirar sold for $530,000 in 03 and $500,000 the other day . (listed by Long Realty)

6186 N Placita Pajaro  - $670,000 in 07 and $575,000 earlier this month . (listed by Long Realty)

3714 N Camino Rio Soleado went for $769,900 in 05 and for $640,000 last week. (listed by Long Realty)

The sellers paid $1,475,000 for 6330 N Whaleback Place in 04 and sold it this month for $1,215,000. (listed by Long Realty)

And then there’s always the exception, and this month it’s 4341 N Placita Camaleon. It sold in 2011 for $1,725,000 and again this month for $1,912,500. (listed by Long Realty) Go figure.

The good news is that we are seeing fewer of these lopsided sales and the price gap between then and now has, I believe, stopped growing.

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read all about it, Luxury Snaps Back

According to the WSJ - Strong demand and low inventory spark unexpected bidding wars—and a comeback for homes priced above $1 million; 'Americans finally got off the fence'
WSJ.com
By Nick Timiraos – Luxury Snaps Back

(a few highlights)

After a soft 2011, the luxury home market made a comeback in 2012, driven by growing buyer confidence, strong foreign demand, low mortgage rates, more realistic sellers and sharp drops in the number of home listings. Sales of homes priced at $1 million and above rose by 9% in the first nine months of 2012 compared with the same period one year ago to the highest level in four years, …

Still, many homeowners are finding that their homes are worth less than the peak values of six years ago. That has likely prompted some to hold their properties off the market. The supply of million-dollar-and-above homes being offered for sale dropped by nearly 8% this year, according to Realtor.com.

This year, bidding wars have become commonplace in affluent California markets from Brentwood to Palo Alto, where new land is scarce and where investors have pushed up prices by making all-cash offers to buy older homes that can be torn down and rebuilt.

"I had so many calls this year from disappointed buyers who thought they had a deal, and the next thing they knew, it was a bidding war and they lost," says Pamela Liebman, chief executive of the luxury brokerage Corcoran Group.

To be sure, many sellers are finding that their homes aren't worth anywhere near what they fetched at their peak, and sales are rising from extremely depressed levels of the past few years. Sales of $1 million properties for the first nine months of the year were nearly half of what they were in at the peak of the housing boom in 2006.

read all about it, Luxury Snaps Back

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In the Tucson Foothills there’ve been 48 $million+ sales so far for 2012 vs. 
42 in 2011 – a 14% increase. But we’ve got a ways to go to catch up to the 123 sold in 2006.

And like WSJ’s findings home values here in the foothills are down considerably from the peak years (more so for higher priced homes). Which has undoubtedly caused would-be sellers to hold off on listing. And while the million+ market has improved this year, unlike WSJ’s findings, we are not experiencing a rash of bidding wars at $1million & up. And at $2million and up, well, sales at $2,000,000 are not breaking any records .

I can’t say whether or not it will hold true this time, but in the past I’ve found that the Tucson Foothills real estate market lags the trends, both positive and negative, occurring in some of the larger US markets by about 3 to 6 months.
see>( 2008- weekend reading) (2011- this is encouraging) (2011 - The rich are different from you and me: They're buying real estate)

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sales at $2,000,000 are not breaking any records,

not the kind you’re likely to brag about anyway. While there are a fair number of sellers at $2.0+ who would like to sell - at the moment there are 20 listed and, I imagine, quite a few others on the sidelines who would if they thought they could – but very few buyers are taking the bait – just 4 sold in 2012 for $2mil or more. And two of them just squeaked in at $2.050, $2.050, then one at $2.150 and one at $2.5. And no one paid retail for any this stuff either. These sales started out (years ago) listed at $3.995, $3.850, $4.5 and $4.2. And three of the four were spec homes.

And while I am by no means a financial whiz (love to hear from those who are) I can’t imagine that the tax increases that appear almost sure to come, at least for the top earners, are going to do much to spur sales in this bracket.

And the $2,000,000 house market in the Foothills was just getting off the ground. 
- here are the sales at $2.0+ in previous years;

2001 – 2
2002 – 1
2003 – 2
2004 – 6
2005 – 12
this is when luxe builders started licking their chops and figuring out how to out-lavish each other,
2006 – 19
then, in the blink of an eye the boom started to fizzle before many of them had hammered their first nail. But they’re builders, so they kept on building while sales kept on dropping
20007 –13
2008 – 9
2009 – 6
2010 – 3
2011 – 2
Blastoff!

And nothing currently in contract at $2.0. Will there be bargains or blood next year.

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the day after

However you celebrate the season I hope you’ve enjoyed it. 

Boy I have. Other than a blog post here and there I’ve been off for almost two weeks now, celebrating with family and friends, and I’m about worn out and almost ready to get back to work. Almost.

it sure was fun while it lasted

Writing about 6321 N Via Acacia in October 09 I said - it was re-listed today, with a new agent and a new price. Off the market since May, it’s now $1,199,000, $100,000 higher than when it left. Other than that, it’s a very nice house, beautifully re-done.

And in October 2012 - it left (the market) in April listed at $899,000 – and is back today at $975,000. Well, we’ll see,…

It first appeared in 2006 for $1,599,000, and with umpteen price changes since then - both $$up and $down, thankfully, Via Acacia closed yesterday for $920,000. Geez, all that for $920,000. 
Priced right in 06 & 07 it would have easily sold for more and saved 5 years of the disruption and inconvenience of selling a house you live in. Oh well, who knew.

And now, no Via Acacia to kick around anymore.

6321 N Via Acacia Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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in contact last week (12/10–12/16)

From Monday December 10th thru Sunday December 16th - 18 homes went to contract
(there were 14 contracts the previous week)

15 were priced from $184,900 to $599,000
then 1 @ $655,000, 1 @ $895,000 and 1 @ $899,000

and still a huge gap between the price of homes going to contract and those still for sale
the average/median list price of the 18 contracts is a $442,728/$380,000

vs  $812,852/$$525,000 for the 365 single family homes still for sale in the Tucson Foothills

and and – there are just 3 homes in contract listed at a $$$million+ and there are 82 for sale -  
and the last contract at a $$$million + was (a month ago) on 11/25. And just 3 sold in the last 30 days …

Cheers!

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land sale in Cobo

The new on the market, 6.7 acres in Cobo that I mentioned in October was asking $675,000 and got $702,000 after 11 days.

8101 N Sendero de Juana Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by The Havins Co., Inc.)

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sold this week

In Shadow Hills, 6300 N CAMINO ARTURO sold for $499,000 in 05 then tried and failed to get $679,000 and $629,000 in 08, and was listed again in June 2011 for $510,000 and closed the other day for $444,000. 6300 N CAMINO ARTURO Tucson, AZ 85718  (listed by Long Realty)

Hitting the bulls eye, in Casas De Venanas, 6352 E Calle Cavillo was listed 39 days ago for $489,900 and closed yesterday for $480,000. 6352 E Calle Cavillo , Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

Another quickie, 642 E Placita Cerro Amistoso listed at $495,000 went to contract in 56 days and closed for $480,000. 642 E Placita Cerro Amistoso Tucson, AZ 85704 (listed by 1st Heritage Realty)

And quicker yet, 3801 N River Hills Drive was listed for $499,000 and went to contract after 13 days and sold for $470,000 . 3801 N River Hills Drive Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

But 5871 N Camino Arizpe in Skyline Belair took it one step at a time. It was listed for $845,000 in January 2010 and after many moons eventually dropped to $599,000 and sold yesterday for $552,500. 5871 N Camino Arizpe , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And though it was listed this April for $769,900, (which may have felt like the lucky number, since that’s exactly what it sold for in 05), 3714 N Camino Rio Soleado took in just $640,000 this time round. 3714 N Camino Rio Soleado , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

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average/median sale prices are all over the lot

The average/median sale price for all 781 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills so far this year is $461,396/$375,000. But being an average it doesn’t really tell you anything, and is actually very misleading, about the range of prices you’ll find in the many subdivisions and communities across the foothills.

For instance, the avg/med in

Fairfield is $364,423/$360,000

Cimarron - $495,132/$445,000

on Sabino Mountain it’s $347,369/$319,950

Ventana CC - $784,364/$435,000

Tierra Santa - $270,557/$269,900

Casas de Ventana - $402,000/$383,000

Canyons - $2,100,000/$2,100,000

Skyline CC - $681,571/$641,000

Skyline Belair Estates - $360,167/$340,000

Foothills ll - $1,119,875/$979,750

Foothills Clusters - $281,493/$300,000

Coronado Foothills Est - $457,638/$397,100

Shadow  Hills - $439,810/$435,500

Catalina Foothills Est 10 - $1,075,500/$950,000

Catalina Foothills Estates - $707,500/$530,000

Pontatoc Canyon Est - $386,250/$386,250 

Las Alturas - $475,800/$470,000

Hacienda del Sol Est - $822,500/$767,500

Shadow Rock - $290,333/$313,500

Pima Canyon - $1,207,382/$1,090,000

Sin Vacas - $687,458/$625,000

What’s more, whether high or low priced, many of these subdivisions are in the same area of the foothills and often share a common boundary and more. So it’s not as if there’s a wrong and right side of the tracks, with the lower priced homes huddled at one end of the foothills and the pearly gated communities at the other.

Residents of Ventana CC, Tierra Santa and Casas de Ventanas are all in the same general area. And the schools, local shopping, area amenities and conveniences are the same for everyone. Same with Foothills ll and Foothills Clusters and Cat 10, Las Alturas and Pontatoc Canyon Estates. Pima Canyon is right next door to Sin Vacas as well as to Shadow Rock. And Skyline CC and Skyline Belair are cheek to jowl with each other. And you’ll find that to be the case in many areas of the foothills.

Yes, the highest spots in the foothills, those that back up to the Coronado National Forest, are all occupied by higher priced gated communities, but other than that there’s a lot of common ground.

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where in the Tucson Foothills are homes selling for $1,000,000 +

so far this year 48 homes have sold for $1,000,000 or more in the foothills – where are they selling,

Alta Vista – 3
Canyon Vista – 1 
Canyons – 2
Cat 2 - 2
Cat 10 – 6
Cobo Catalina Foothills – 1
Cobblestone – 1
Coronado Foothills Estates – 1
Finisterra - 2
Foothills ll – 2
Hacienda del Sol – 1
La Paloma – 2
Montanas de Paz – 1
Pima Canyon – 13
Sin Vacas – 1
Skyline CC – 1
Ventana CC – 8

Once again Pima Canyon is ahead by a country mile, followed by very respectable showings from Ventana and Cat 10.

During the same period in 2011 there were 38 $mil+ sales
In 2010 - 39
2009 – also 39
2008 – there were 56, and 47 had closed by 8/31/08
2007 – 91
2006 – was the tippy-top with 123 $mil+ sales.

There are 81 for sale at $1,000,000+ and I'm betting there will be plenty more come January.

PS- I ran a similar post at this time last year but based it on homes that were listed at $1,000,000 or more and sold at whatever they sold at. Which is a mistake. Because anyone can ask a $million or more, and many do and don’t get it.  It’s getting it that matters.
it’s here

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sales and sale prices YTD

for single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills from Jan 1 thru December 12th for each of the following years;

year	# homes Sold	Avg/Med Sold Price
2012	773	$460,299/$375,000
2011	637	$463,905/$383,000
2010	602	$495,228/$403,000
2009	554	$521,723/$425,000

With sales growing as they have I can’t imagine that higher prices are too far behind.

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not everything is selling for less

In Cat 10, 4341 N Placita Camaleon sold twice in the last two years and did well each time.

it was 1st listed in Oct 2009 for $2,490,000

in April 2010 it was reduced to $1,990,000 (yep, $500 thou in one big gulp)

in October 2010, after quite a bit of wrangling,  the sellers accepted an offer of $1,600,000 
(I represented the buyers and did the wrangling)
but the buyers canceled during inspection period, and of course the sellers were very upset.
But it would prove to be their lucky day

it immediately went back on the market reduced to $1,890,000

and a month or so later (Nov 2010) they accepted a 2nd offer & this one stuck and it closed for $1,725,000 in Feb 2010.

then out of the blue, in October 2012, it was listed for $1,975,000 (ahh come on) and immediately went to contract and, remarkably, closed yesterday for $1,912,500.

4341 N Placita Camaleon , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

At $1,912,500 - 4341 N Pla Camaleon now holds title to the highest sale price paid in Cat 10 since Feb 2008. And coincidently, the 2008 sale which was at $2.9, was also on Pla Camaleon. But instead of rising, its fortunes have declined somewhat.

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buying the most expensive house on the block

5335 E Camino Francisco Soza, in the Haciendas Francisco Soza (1-18) subdivision, was listed 46 days ago for $899,000 and, remarkably, is reported in contract today. And it looks like a lot of house for the money. Why in Cat 10 or La Paloma I imagine you’d be looking at at least $1.2

And because I couldn’t recall any similarly priced sales in this subdivision I took a gander at what has sold in there and for how much.

The 2 most recent sales, which weren’t very recent, were in April & October of 2011, for $184,000 and $332,000 respectively. So not much there. And digging a little deeper (to 2005) I saw that the 2 highest priced sales, at $572,000 and $660,000, took place in the good old days of 06 and 07. No help there either. Everything else that has sold since then, and there are just 2, were at $425,000 and $365,000. That’s it, not too encouraging if you’re spending $800 or so.

But buyers are free to spend their money however they want. It’s mr lender that I wonder about, is he going to go along with it. Back in the days when banks were practically begging buyers to take their money the appraisal on this would’ve sailed through, no problem. But now?

5335 E Camino Francisco Soza Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty, LLC)

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in contract last week (12/3 –12/9)

From Monday December 3rd thru Sunday December 9th - 14 homes went to contract
(there were 11 contracts the previous week)

11 were priced from $268,000 to $499,000
+ 1 @ $650,000, 1 @ $776,655 and the biggest fish of the bunch at $799,000

the average/median list price of the 14 contracts is a paltry $449,104/$392,000

vs  $821,054/$529,00 for the 365 single family homes still for sale in the Tucson Foothills

Perhaps this is the calm before the storm.

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a snapshot of the mid-range of the Tucson Foothills home market

I call that homes that are priced from $600,000 to $999,999.

In that range there are;

75 homes for sale @  an average/median list of $785,935/$789,000

20 in contract listed @  $752,081/$727,000

49 sold in last 6 months @ $744,204/$725,000 avg/med sold price

=  about 9 months inventory

and more recently, during the last 30 days;

11 listed for sale @  $801,027/$811,500

8 to contract listed @  $727,957/$714,000

6 sold @  $764,167/$752,500

= 12.5 months inventory

The 49 sold in the last 6 months were, at time of sale, listed @ an average $782,802 and sold @ an average $744,204 - 96% of the list price. That’s after price cuts and relistings, etc. Using the original average list price ($810,818)  it comes in at just under 92% of list price.

The 6 sold in the last 30 days were, at time of sale, listed @ average $805,250 and sold @
an average $764,167 - just under 95% of list price.Using the original list price ($840,083) it works out to just under 91% of list price.

So the middle of the market is muddling along, doing OK - not nearly as robust as the lower-end market, nor as sluggish as the upper-end.

Similar data for the lower priced end of the market can be found here > a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market up to $599,999

And the $$$million+ market here>  a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market at a million $$ and up

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Monday, Monday

In Cobblestone 7411 N Catalina Ridge Drive was listed today for $1,950,000, the priciest listing in Cob (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty) That makes it 12 for sale in Cob, nothing in contract and nothing sold in the last 6 months. Not such good odds. See them here > 12 in Cobblestone

And a new listing in Pima Canyon. 1963 E Quiet Canyon Drive, last sold for $820,000 in 01, was listed today for $1,200,000 (listed by Long Realty). Hey, I only report this stuff.
But PC is enjoying a much better year than Cob, that’s for sure (17 sold for the year in PC vs. 1 in Cob)  9 for sale, 1 in contract and 7 sold in the last 6 months. And for high-end sales, list and sold prices are more aligned in PC than anywhere else in the Foothills. > 9 in PC

And just when you least expect it, a contract on Sabino Mountain. And not another puny one either. 4488 N Sabino Mountain Drive, listed just 141 days ago at $895,000 is in contract. (listed by Long Realty) There’s a ways to go yet, but, assuming it goes the distance, it’s good news for SB which has had quite a dry spell for sales above $600k. For the gory details see getting over the hump on Sabino Mountain 

And best of all, I think, is 3189 E Corte De Andalucia. It last sold in 05 for the amusing sum of $1,600,000 and was then listed in January 07 for an even more amusing $1,895,000. And it took its time and cautiously worked its way down to $776,655 and, bingo!, went to contract today – just 6 years later.  But why rush into things. (currently listed by RE/MAX Majestic 4044) in Hacienda del Sol Estates.

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the good news is there’s a lot more information available to home buyers

but, as I’ve pointed out many times, a fair amount of it is incorrect and misleading.
Let the buyer beware,

I’ve taken the liberty of highlighting the article regarding the practices that I find to be the most persistent.

From The Wall Street Journal / Market Watch; 
10 things real-estate listing sites won’t say

Once upon a time, house hunting meant perusing local newspapers and being led through properties by a real-estate agent. Nowadays, most home buyers head straight to their computers: A record 90% searched online this year, up from 65% a decade ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. Trouble is, homes listed for sale online aren’t always actually available.

1. “The homes you’re looking at have already sold.”

More than a third of home listings that are labeled as “active” on third-party listing sites Trulia and Zillow are no longer for sale, according to a 2012 study by consulting firm WAV Group that was sponsored by online brokerage Redfin (which also lists properties for sale). For their part, Trulia and Zillow say such outdated posts can be the result of real-estate agents inputting information incorrectly or forgetting to make updates. Walter Molony, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, says both parties — the sites and the agents — are sometimes responsible for outdated listings. Either way, some buyers are wasting their time reviewing homes that have already sold.

In some cases, agents intentionally leave listings up after they’ve sold, in an effort to generate future leads, says Leonard Baron, principal of real-estate consulting firm LPB Services and a lecturer at San Diego State University. Buyers who are interested in the property will reach out to the listing agent, and the agent will tell them the home has sold but that they have other properties with similar features, he says. Of course, the other properties may not meet the buyer’s criteria, says Baron, calling the strategy a “bait and switch.”
(Trulia, Zillow and the like often have homes still listed as active that have long since sold.
And while I haven’t run into that on the MLS, occasionally I do see homes that are under contract still listed as active)

2. “The price is wrong.”

While most listing sites allow users to search by price brackets, the prices that come up aren’t always correct. That’s because the listing price is among the details that agents at times neglect to update in every version of their online listing. The problem with inaccurate prices, say insiders, is that most home buyers shopping online narrow their search based on their budget. If a price cut isn’t reflected on a listing site, the property might not even show up in a house shopper’s search results.

Buyers interested in short sales — that is, when homes sell for less than the owner owes on the mortgage — are particularly vulnerable to erroneous pricing. And the error can begin when the property is first posted, says Brad Hunter, chief economist at Metrostudy, a housing market research and consulting firm. With short sales, sellers and their agents decide on an asking price for the home and then list it online. In making that decision, the sellers and agents often don’t consult with the lender (usually a bank) to whom the outstanding loan is owed, even though the lender can prevent a sale from going through if the price isn’t high enough. That means buyers who make offers on the property — even if it’s for the full asking price — might not be able to get the home if the lender isn’t satisfied with the price.

Experts say lenders have the right to stop the process. These days, most short-sale agreements include a provision where the bank waives any right to go after borrowers for the amount they still owe after the home has sold, says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac, which tracks short sales and foreclosures. So the bank usually eats the loss. Molony of the NAR agrees that deals may not go through if the price is set too low. In fact, he says, even though agents use their knowledge of the market to try to assign a price that will lead to a successful sale, it can take months for a bank to tell an agent whether it will accept a buyer’s offer.

3. “You say hole in the wall, we say cozy fixer-upper.”

Paul Howard, a buyer’s broker in Cherry Hill, N.J., says he’s seen his fair share of discrepancies between home features touted in online listings and home features in reality. They run the gamut from so-called fully redone basements that turned out to be only partly finished, to eat-in kitchens that had standing-room only, and inflated square footage claims for bedrooms. When he dug in to see where the misstatements originated, he found that many often appeared early on: in the listings posted on the local multiple listing services (or MLSs) — the databases where listing agents maintain their postings and other information relating to properties.

Much like online dating profiles, online housing listings can present a picture that bears little resemblance to reality, and often the mistakes are intentionally inserted to increase buyer interest in a property, says Mike Machinski, a broker with Weichert Realtors in Ridgewood, N.J. He says he’s seen listings that not only exaggerate the truth but also present falsehoods so extreme that they can even derail a sale. Some listings increase the number of bedrooms by claiming that a room without a closet or window is a bedroom. When an appraiser visits the home to determine its value — a step that occurs before lenders give borrowers a mortgage — he likely won’t count such a room as a bedroom, which could lower the home’s value, says Ken Chitester, spokesman for the Appraisal Institute. (Rules over what counts as a bedroom can vary by locality.)

Third-party listing sites say the home facts and features they display on listings come directly from the MLSs or brokers’ own listings. They also receive listings from companies that specialize in listing distribution and asset management. Trulia spokeswoman Daisy Kong says that to minimize errors the site prioritizes the data it gets directly from MLSs and brokers over other sites.

4. “History is told by the listing agents.”

A huge perk to listing sites is that many reveal details that can help buyers figure out how much to offer on a property. This includes the number of days a home has been on the market and its sales history. Of course, that data can be misleading. On some sites, the number of on-sale days are counted from the day when the posting went live on that site — which could be days or weeks after it first hit the market. Separately, a property that’s been listed online for months can get removed only to reappear a few weeks later as a newly for-sale property. Listing agents have been known to use that as a strategy for juicing demand, says Jack McCabe, an independent housing analyst in Deerfield Beach, Fla. (It can also happen if a new listing agent takes over.)

Such errors can have huge ramifications for buyers. They’re more likely to make lowball offers on homes that have been languishing on the market for months, while they’re more likely to be aggressive with a property that’s just come on the market. In the latter case, the buyer may put a full-price offer on it, says McCabe. “It creates a false sense of urgency,” he says.

Buyers also look at the prices a home previously sold for. Trulia and Zillow, for instance, say they pull these prices from county recorders’ offices and from regional firms in the U.S. that track sales data. In rare cases, errors can make their way in, says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow. A refinance, for instance, may appear as a sales transaction if a county mistakenly registers it as such; in that case, the mortgage amount the homeowner received — sometimes significantly less than the value of the home — can be is listed online as a previous sales price.

5. “Agents are turning against us.”
**Disclosure (Long Realty is a Berkshire Hathaway company & under the same umbrella as Edina Realty)

In May, Edina Realty, a Berkshire Hathaway-owned real estate firm with listings in Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin, announced it was pulling its listings from third-party site Realtor.com. A few months earlier, it had stopped sending listings to Trulia.com. In fact, the company says it has stopped working with all non-broker-controlled sites, partly because of concerns with data inaccuracy.

Some experts contend there’s more to the story. By reserving its listings for its own site, Edina ensures that buyers who click on the homes for sale will be directed to an Edina agent, increasing the chances that Edina will take on a “dual agency” role, says Doug Miller, executive director of Consumer Advocates in American Real Estate. That’s when the company represents both the seller and the buyer. (Under this arrangement, agents are prohibited from negotiating price and terms on behalf of either party, says Miller.) As a result, the company doesn’t have to share commission with another brokerage firm, instead receiving a double payment, he says. (Miller is also a real-estate attorney who helped win a lawsuit against Edina Realty in the early ’90s over undisclosed dual agency.) In contrast, many third-party sites tend to direct house hunters to agents who would be working for the buyer alone.

Bob Peltier, CEO of Edina Realty, says the critics are wrong: Edina Realty’s decision isn’t motivated by commissions. He says the firm is distributing its listings to other local brokers and MLS members, providing access to consumers who search its competitors’ sites and its own. Peltier says the company’s agents can also post their own listings on third-party sites if they prefer to.

6. “Good luck finding reviews of agents.”

In recent years, several real-estate listing sites have rolled out rankings on real-estate agents with the stated purpose of giving home buyers and sellers an informed way of picking an agent to work with. But it hasn’t always panned out. In September 2011, brokerage Redfin introduced its “Scouting Report” that publicized previously private information about agents, including the number of sales the agent made and the difference between asking prices and actual selling prices. Less than a week later, the company removed the tool from its site, citing inaccuracies in the data. Rachel Musiker, a spokeswoman for Redfin, says some of those errors originated from variances in how the agents input their information into the MLSs, and she says some agents asked the company to stop publishing this data.

Experts say house hunters will be hard pressed to find many sites that offer comprehensive agent review tools. While NeighborCity.com rolled out a rating system for nearly one million real-estate agents earlier this year, Cardella says agents have been pressuring the site to pull the rankings—arguing that they don’t present an accurate portrait — but that the company plans to continue with them. He says the lawsuits filed against the site’s operator, in fact, came within weeks after it introduced this tool. The two MLSs involved in the lawsuits declined to comment, citing pending litigation. (To determine the ratings, the site says it looks at the percentage of listings and the number of homes agents sell, the selling price, and the amount of time it takes for sales to happen, among other factors. It reviews agent records over the past few years and compares each agent’s performance against that of his or her peers.)

7. “Our inflated sales figures create demand.”

Since the first place most properties are listed for sale by real-estate agents is often on local MLSs, those databases might seem like they’d be a good source for accurate sales figures. In fact, the National Association of Realtors uses them to report existing-home sales. But last year, the NAR announced that the number of existing-home sales for every year from 2007 to 2010 was actually 11% to 16% lower than it had originally reported. The association said the revisions were partly due to problems with MLSs, such as properties being added to the system in more than one city or town. Then, when a home sold, it was registered as two sales when it was actually one. Molony of the NAR adds that a much bigger reason for the changes was a large decline in the market share of for-sale-by-owner properties.

For buyers and sellers, the errors distort reality. Buyers are led to believe that there’s more demand for homes than there actually is, which could result in them offering higher prices than they otherwise would, says McCabe. When it reported the error, the NAR said the corrections to the figures probably wouldn’t affect buyers and sellers, since the numbers that were revised were national whereas local sales figures are what typically drive prices up and down.

8. “Our maps create headaches for homeowners.”

It’s not just home buyers who are at the mercy of listing sites. In recent years, sites like Homes.com, Realtor.com and Zillow have introduced technology that gives homeowners (as well as casual home-site browsers and nosy neighbors) an estimate of what their home is worth. But critics say those values are often wrong, change frequently, and can create confusion. “A lot of times, estimates can be radically different from what true values are in their areas,” says McCabe.

In most cases, these tools rely on automated valuation models (AVMs) that calculate home prices based on several types of information, including previous appraisals and home features (like the number of bedrooms) included in county tax assessors’ files. The data though isn’t always up-to-date, like when homeowners haven’t informed the county of any extensions they’ve made to their home or when the most recent appraisal occurred many years ago. Also, AVMs tend to be most reliable when many sales transactions occur in a neighborhood — since they take the prices of recently sold comparable homes into account when determining a property’s value. Areas with a low turnover, on the other hand, are prone to more automated valuation errors and large swings, says Gary Painter, research director at the Lusk Center for Real Estate at the University of Southern California.

For their part, Homes.com, Realtor.com and Zillow say homeowners can use the valuations as a reference for their home’s value and the direction in which property values in their area are heading but shouldn’t rely entirely on the tool. “Homeowners need to be careful to not put too much weight in these numbers,” says Errol Samuelson, president of Realtor.com. Instead, they say, homeowners thinking about listing their homes should consult with local real estate agents and consider having their home appraised to get a more accurate valuation.

9. “Cold calling beats online deal hunting.”

As the number of homes for sale nationwide continues to drop, more buyers are bypassing online listings and taking matters into their own hands. They’re speaking with real-estate agents about the types of properties they want, and some buyer agents are placing calls and sending letters to homes that fit those descriptions, stating that there are interested buyers if the homeowners care to sell. In fact, 20% of sellers in the year ended June 30 sold their homes because they were contacted directly by a buyer, up from 15% in the year ended June 30, 2010, according to a survey by the NAR. These individuals never listed their homes, and in some cases weren’t even thinking about selling until they heard there was an interested buyer, says Molony.

This trend comes even as the percentage of buyers searching for homes online is at an all-time high. As inventory shrinks, home buyers are becoming desperate and looking for any possible leads, says David Kent, president of the National Buyer’s Agent Alliance. Kent says he too is about to start placing cold calls to homeowners on behalf of a client who’s been searching for a type of home that has yet to be listed online. But that’s not the only option, of course. In other cases, buyers are finding homes simply by word of mouth — like when a neighbor or friend tells them that they’re thinking about selling.

10. “Buying at auction is like buying with your eyes closed.”

Over the past few years, foreclosures have offered up some of the biggest deals — and risks — in real estate. In many cases, buyers incur risks at the point of purchase: Many foreclosures are sold in online auctions, and depending on the site, buyers might not have the opportunity to see the home before they bid on it, or they might only be able to see it from the outside, says McCabe. In these cases, they’re bidding strictly based on the information in the online listing, without knowing the true condition of the home.

Some sites provide more access, however. Auction.com, a listing site that auctions off properties ranging from foreclosures to luxury homes, hosts open houses on many — but not all — properties for interested buyers to visit in person before bidding. But buyers will need to check the site frequently for those dates; if they miss them, they won’t be able to arrange a private showing. They also face unknowns with the bidding process. While the site lists the starting bid it’ll accept, it doesn’t disclose what the reserve price is — the price that needs to be offered in order for the sale to actually occur. Separately, financing isn’t guaranteed. Monte Koch, co-CEO of Auction.com, says the site accepts buyers with mortgages for some transactions, but some foreclosure auctions are only accessible to cash-only purchasers.

Despite the setbacks, experts say such sites do offer buyers more access than in the past. It used to be that buyers had to know someone at a bank that was holding the foreclosed property or another insider to be aware of upcoming foreclosure auctions at all. With these sites, more buyers can engage in the process, if they’re willing to take on the risks.

____________________________________________________________________________

The other nagging bit of misleading data that is not mentioned in this article is how the
% of Sale Price/List Price is reported. For more on that see >   checked your % of SP to LP lately

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a swing and a miss

When 6330 N Whaleback Place, a handsome Mediterranean, went on the market in August 2011 for $1,450,000 I ventured that that seemed like a reasonable price. And with its good looks, plus the fact that it last sold in June 04 for $1,475,000, I was confident it would go rather quickly.

But the market didn’t agree. After dropping to $1,340,000 it took 441 days and closed yesterday for $1,215,000. Disappointing all the way around, except to the buyers.

Heck, it sold for $1,075,000 in 2001 and that was before a major renovation.

6330 N Whaleback Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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back to reality

In Cat 10  4331 N Placita Camaleon sold today. It was listed on 11/7 for $1,595,000 and went to contract three days later and sold for $1,600,000 – cash. Why $5k over, a bidding war –doubt it - or some of the staged furniture thrown in - maybe.

4331 N Placita Camaleon Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Pla Camaleon, which sold for $2.9 in Feb 08, holds the dubious honor of the highest sale price ever in Cat 10. (ever being as far back as 1992)

for a short history see > once sold for $2,900,000, can now be yours for $1,595,000

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in contract last week, (11/26 – 12/02)

From Monday November 26th thru Sunday December 2nd just 11 homes went to contract
though we have to figure Thanksgiving had a lot to do with it,
(I missed the previous week, but the week before that there were 15 contracts)

once again prices were mostly huddled at the lower end,
9 were priced from $265,000 to $599,000
+ 1 @ $679,500 and 1 @ $695,000

the average/median list price of the 11 contracts is $477,318/$465,000

vs.  - $814,435/$529,500 for the 366 homes still for sale in the Tucson Foothills

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getting over the hump on Sabino Mountain

4388 N Sabino Mountain Drive, on Sabino Mountain, expired today.

It sold for $842,000 in 2001, when it was brand spanking new, and sold again for $920,000 in 2005. All good so far. But then in May 2009 it was listed for $1,395,000 and guess what happened. Yep, nothing. It sat on the market and expired 6 months later.

Well OK, but then it was listed this past July for a much more approachable $870,000. But still it didn’t sell. And it expired today at $858,000, a measly $181/sf. Why? I don’t know. But I’m guessing the fact that upper-end sales have been lackluster on Sabino Mountain may have something to do with it. A vicious cycle thing.

Since January 1, 2010 there’ve been 41 sales on SM. And that’s a lot a sales.

But 35 of them went for under $600k. The other 5 were over $600k – at $610,000,  $620,000, $675,000, $875,000 & $900,000. But 3 of them, including the $875 & the $900k, sold in 2010 and the 4th at $675 in 2011 leaving just the $610 as the highest sale in 2012. That’s it. Lackluster.

And $858,000 is small potatoes. There are 5 homes on SM listed from $1,185,000 to $1,800,000. see> upping the ante on Sabino Mountain

4388 N Sabino Mountain Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(was listed by Tucson Arizona Real Estate 34)

But it hasn’t always been this way. Back in the rah-rah days homes on SM were routinely selling for $900 to around $1.3 with some higher than that.

So what’s it gonna take,

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quick sales

here are few homes that sold recently in less than 10 days. It happens.

5456 N Via Papavero Tucson, AZ 85750 - listed $264,500 sold for $268,000 in 9 days
(listed by Homesmart Advantage Group)

and right down the street, also on Papavero
5404 N Via Papavero Tucson, AZ 85750 – listed $255,000 sold for $255,000 in 8 days
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

5708 E Rio Verde Vista Drive Tucson, AZ 85750 – listed $425,000 sold for $419,000 in 6 days
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

660 E Rudasill Road Tucson, AZ 85704 – listed $550,000 sold for $555,000 in 6 days
(listed by Long Realty)

5305 E Gleneagles Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 – listed $798,500 sold for $775,000 in 8 days
(listed by Long Realty)

If you like it and the price looks right you can be pretty sure someone else thinks so too. Particularly in the under $600k range where the demand for the best homes is outstripping the supply. 

for a closer look at that market see>  a snapshot of the Tucson Foothills home market up to $599,999

5 quick sales

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relatively cheap for Canyon Ranch

8471 E Desert View Place, behind the very pearly gates of the famed Canyon Ranch, was listed today for $1,650,000 ($618/sf) – described as a COMPLETELY REMODELED AND UPGRADED CUSTOM LUXURY MODERN MEDITERRANEAN HOME.

See for yourself > 8471 E Desert View Place Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Advanced Capital Realty, Inc)

The 3 other homes for sale are at $3,900,000, $4,800,000 and $6,250,000.

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November home sales and prices in the Tucson Foothills

Sales for November are up, but just, from 58 in October to 59 for November.

 

And sale prices are also up a tad, from October’s $441,231/$355,000 to $459,786/$400,000 – November.

So not bad for November, which can be a sluggish month, and it beat the pants off last November.

59 sold in November

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a quick contract in the old Foothills

2920 E Cerrada Los Palitos, a 1980 built 4691 sf burnt adobe,
sold in 2005 after 152 days for $947,000.
sold again in 2011 after 290 days for $810,000
and is in contract today after being listed 25 days ago for $799,000

It’s just one example but I think it’s fairly representative of the market for desirable areas of the foothills – prices haven’t risen but at the right price the time to contract is way down.

2920 E Cerrada Los Palitos Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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hurry up and wait

That’s how it goes sometimes with short sales. You come across a house you like that’s a short sale that looks like a really good deal. And you hurry to prepare the documents and make your offer before someone beats you to it. And the seller accepts it, YEAH!, and then you settle in to  wait for mr. lender to make up his mind. And that can take months. And along the way you never know. After months of waiting your patience may be rewarded by the lender giving it their blessing, or with an email rejecting it. With short sales it can go either way. 

The buyers of 6218 N Zorrela Segundo were very patient and lucked out. After going to contract on May 13 they waited thru the remaining spring, summer and fall and closed on 11/29.
Just 6 months, lucky for them.

But not everyone’s so lucky,

4501 N Camino Del Obispo went to contract on January 25, 2012 and has yet to close.

7605 E Crested Saguaro went to contract on March 30, 2012 and the jury’s still out.

And it may still be early innings at 3430 E Placita De La Jolla Del Sol, it went to contract on 8/25/2012, and no word yet.

Ditto with 5911 E Placita Primitiva which entered contract on 8/31/2012

But then,
6760 N Placita Acebo closed successfully after 5 months, not an eternity.

and 4411 Camino Sumo went to contract on 8/31 and closed on 11/16. Practically record time. But here the lender had a few practice runs – it had gone to contract and fell out twice before.

Ditto with 1495 E Canyon Spring Court. It went to contract twice, fell out twice and the 3rd time it stuck - going to contract in mid April and closing in mid August. 

And no one really knows when the verdict will be reached. Not even mr. lender. And certainly not the agent representing you as the buyer, and not the listing agent either. Not in my experience anyway.

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a quick flip in Skyline CC

6682 N LOS LEONES sold for $470,000 this past April, and looked like this;

this,

and this,

 

And after a full face-lift in the kitchen,

 

and a nip here

and a tuck there,

along with what looks like staged furniture (I never did see it in person) it was listed 29 days ago for $695,000, and is already in contract.

Then - 6682 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

Now - 6682 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

Teardowns and more modest remodels to flip, such as this one, were all the rage in Skyline CC before the market fell apart. And maybe, hopefully, this is a sign that the market is strong enough to once again encourage this activity.

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