The Catalina Foothills

this one’s taken

In Cat 10, 4975 N Via De La Granja showed up in the MLS this evening at 6:00PM as a brand new foreclosure listing asking $800,000. And 48 minutes later it was in contract at $850,000, ($140/sf). That’s for 6059 sf of masonry construction, built in 94 on 1.5 acres, which last sold in 94 for $837,238. In 94. Courtesy of Bankunited, which appears to be lightly saddled with the $965,000 mortgage it handed out in 2004.

After a few years of having our appetites whetted on deals like this, now, suddenly they’re all gone. It’s not fair. So when one does come along, if you want it, you gotta go for it.

4975 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Win3 Realty 3285)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

at the top of the heap in Pima Canyon

2102 E Desert Garden Drive, a spec home first listed in Feb 2010 for $4,199,000 ($787/sf), dropped $641 thou today to a new low of 2,849,000 ($534/sf).

There are 8 for sale in PC ranging from $725,000 to $2,849,000. Take your pick.

2102 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 is listed by Long Realty

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

too late

In Hacienda del Sol Estates - 3199 E Corte De Andalucia made it’s debut as a shiny new spec home in the very grim days of May 2009, listed at $1,795,000 ($375/sf).  

But these projects take time. Between figuring out what to build, putting together the building plans, getting the approvals and permits and then the actual excavation and construction, plus the various Pima County inspections along the way, you’re looking at about 2 years from the bright idea to the finished product. And a lot can change over 2 years, and boy did they ever. The builder closed on the lot for $440,000 in August 07 – just as the first shoe dropped – but they forged ahead anyway.

Well it’s been on the market ever since, and dropped $200k here and $50k there, until it got down to $1,195,000 in June of 2011, where it has held ever since. And today it’s reported in contract. Thank Goodness!

I showed it 3 or 4 times in 2011 and 12 and I thought it was a very decent house, and everyone I showed it to spent time and were interested to one extent or  another, but no one fell in love.  Though we did make a low offer late last year, but that didn’t fly, so I’m anxious to see what it goes for.

PS - and, incredibly enough, it’s not a foreclosure or short sale.

3199 E Corte De Andalucia Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

well, at least it sold

3430 E Placita De La Jolla Del Sol sold today as a short sale for a measly $775,000 ($121/sf), for a 6600 sf house designed and built by David Tyson in 1998 in a small gated community off Hacienda del Sol.

In better times it sold for $950,000 in 04 and for $1,240,000 in 07. It looks like there was just an $840,000 mortgage on it, so mr lender got off easy, though the other homeowners in this community are probably not too thrilled. FYI – Back in 2003, when I also did listings, I had it listed for $990,000 and couldn’t move it.

3430 E Placita De La Jolla Del Sol , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by RE/MAX Trends 5105)  & intentionally or not, the pictures leave a lot to the imagination.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

two’s a crowd

Another sale today in Pima Canyon, and for $60k over list?

1387 E Desert Garden Drive, an estate sale, was listed at $1,100,000 ($261/sf) and closed for $1,160,000 ($275/sf). It was listed last May at $1,350,000, dropped to $1,100,000 in mid October and went to contract two months later. So it sat around for a while and then, apparently, got at least 2 offers. And though it may sound unusual, it’s not. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve represented clients who’ve been watching a house for weeks or longer and when they eventually decide to make an offer, suddenly out of nowhere, we’re up against another bidder. Or bidders. As if a golden halo forms around the house making it irresistible.

1387 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

recent supply and demand in the Tucson Foothills

Looking at the overall supply and demand numbers for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills there are 368 for sale and 178 sold in the last 3 months. Which works out to a very tidy 6.2 month supply of homes, which is considered to be a nice, normal, balanced market.

But that’s not the case all across the Foothills. And when you’re looking to buy or sell you want to know what’s happening in the individual communities and subdivisions that are of interest to you. With that in mind here’s a closer look at the supply and demand in some of the more popular areas across the Catalina Foothills.
(# Sold & Avg Sold $$ is based on sales during the last 3 months – MOI is months of inventory)

Area	# For Sale	Avg List $$	# Sold	Avg Sold $$	MOI
Shadow Hills	4	$493,000	4	$421,367	3
Pima Cyn	9	$1,459,444	3	$1,111,833	9
Catalina Foothills Est 1-9	17	$875,428	9	$629,444	5.6
Cat 10	3*	$1,360,000	4	$1,400,625	2.2
La Paloma Est	1	$895,000	0	$0	?
La Paloma (other than Est)	7	$638,357	5	$556,380	4.2
Cobblestone	8	$1,170,988	0*	$0	?
Hacienda del Sol Est	2	$1,095,000	0*	$0	?
Foothills ll	1	$2,950,000	0	$0	?
Skyline CC	14	$1,498,357	1	$775,000	42
Alta Vista	11	$917,682	3	$733,333	11
Cimarron	7	$523,371	2	$501,000	10..5
Fairfield	9	$465,832	6	$285,500	4.5
Ventana Cyn Golf Villlas	7	$453,629	1	$337,500	21
Ventana CC, Cyn Est, Whlbck.	14	$1,190,929	4	$771,000	10.5
Ventana Cyn Mountain Est	6	$2,042,500	0	$0	?
Sabino Mtn	11	$950,727	6	$429,462	5.5

As you can see, looking at individual communities, there’s a widely varied picture of supply and demand across the foothills. Some doing very well, others doing nothing at all.
But a couple of things to keep in mind.

During the first innings of the season, which is where we are now, sellers tend to  get their homes listed early in the game, in order to be out there and ready before the majority of snow birds have even arrived. (think internet searching) And many, though not all, of the communities listed above are popular with snow birds and retirees who convene here during the winter to enjoy the climate and find a second home or retirement home. Also, as a result of activity during just the first few weeks of this new year, there are 98 homes in contract. And those, as well as new contracts, many of which are sprinkled amongst the communities listed above, will show up as sales over the next few weeks. Further altering the existing supply and demand picture. For the better, we hope.

And finally, in quite a few of the communities there is a glaring lack of balance between average list prices and average sold prices. And that’s been the case for years and, for the most part, is due to the more moderately priced homes selling in those communities while their higher priced neighbors do not. Generally, it is not due, as some may think, to homes selling at prices that are drastically reduced from their list price. 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

facing the music in Alta Vista

6155 E Avenida De Chaparron sold for $965,000 in 2004 and sold again in 2006 for $1,267,000 – them were the days – and, listed 4 1/2 months ago for $985,000, is reported in contract today. And not as a short sale or REO. So even if it goes for list price, which isn’t likely, that’s a $300k+ loss.

6155 E Avenida De Chaparron , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

in contract last week

From Monday January 21st thru Sunday January 27th 25 homes went to contract.
(link to contracts for Jan 14 - 20)

19 were priced from $219,900 to $519,000
5 from $649,500 to $825,000
1 at $1,090,000

25 contracts is more than we’ve seen recently, but now’s the time when we should be seeing more. It’s the end of January and the season is now in full swing, or at least it should be. And from here on out until late May or early June we should be seeing the highest activity of the year.

That said, it was a good week for the lower and mid priced segments of the market, but, with just one contract over a million, and just over a million, it once again wasn’t a banner week for the high end. Though it may take the high-end a little longer to get into the swing of things.

Most high end buyers are not in rush to buy for a variety of reasons. But, importantly, unlike the lower end which is selling like hotcakes, the high-end is not, and so there’s no need to rush. And most of what’s for sale now will be there next week and the week after. That’s certainly not the case at $200k to $600k, and less so, but still risky at $700 – $900k.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

if you’re a foodie,

and you haven’t been there yet, I highly recommend the new mega Whole Foods store at River & Craycroft. It opened about 10 days ago, and since it’s a little off the beaten path I thought you may not have come across it yet. If not, it’s well worth the trip. You can’t miss it, it’s on the north side of River across from that incredibly ugly QT gas station.

And now AJ’s has some competition.

River/Craycroft Whole Foods

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

this should raise the bar in Pima Canyon

Listed at $1,795,000 or a big, for these days, ($420/sf), 1327 E Desert Garden Drive went to contract today after a relatively brief  4 months on the market. Of course there’s no knowing what it went for but let’s play what-if.

If it goes for $1,710,000 or more it’ll be the first sale in PC to get $400/sf since 2009. And there was just one in 09 and one in 08. Though before then sales at $400/sf and UUP were fairly common in PC. And if it goes cheap, let’s say for $1,550,000, that’s $362/sf, and still, there’s been just one sale since Jan 2010 over $350 and that just snuck in at $354/sf.

So we’ll see. When Desert Garden was listed I mentioned it here > it’s not exactly the Ponderosa, but it’s big for Pima Canyon <

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

After the traumatic collapse of the last price bubble, Americans seem less sanguine about owning versus renting

Another article from Robert Shiller, explaining  why he is less than optimistic about the prospect of rising home prices. From The New York Times

A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It

WE’RE beginning to hear noises that we’ve reached a major turning point in the housing market — and that, with interest rates so low, this is a rare opportunity to buy. But are such observations on target?

It would be comforting if they were. Yet the unfortunate truth is that the tea leaves don’t clearly suggest any particular path for prices, either up or down.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

not even Joesler gets a free pass

Sold in 2004 for $775,000 and for $975,000 in 2005, 4930 N Calle La Vela just sold again, this time for $815,000 (274/sf) off an $849,000 list price.

Described in the listing as; This lovely 1936 Joesler epitomizes Classic Tucson living in its purest form. Situated on nearly 2 private acres in prime Old Foothills territory w/majestic mountain and unobstructed city views, …

I couldn’t agree more, it’s a charming house, lots of character and on a very nice lot.

And Joesler’s are few and far between. If you wanted a Joesler when this one was listed you’d have had two to choose from. Now this one’s gone, but another Joesler was listed the other day, but that’s it. Two to choose from. And that’s about how it goes with Joesler’s.

4930 N Calle La Vela , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

big price cut in Canyon Ranch

8481 E Milford Place dropped from $6,250,000 to $5,250,000 today. The question is, will it make a difference. This is in Canyon Ranch Estates, the residential community within the plush confines of Canyon Ranch, where the homes are priced accordingly - the 4 for sale run from $617 to $690/sf. And while that’s big bucks for the foothills, let’s face it, this is Canyon Ranch, where one should expect to pay a hefty premium. But unfortunately there are no sales to go on. Nothing through the MLS in CR (and no sales figures in the tax records). One of the other homes for sale in there started at $6,900,000 in 09 and is now at $3,950,000 ($617/sf) and still no takers. 

And looking in the foothills overall, all the way back to 2000, there’s just one legitimate house sale over $600/sf, and that didn’t end too happily. It was a house in Pima Canyon that sold in 06 for $2.9 – $623/sf and later went back to mr lender after failing to get $1.1 - $255/sf last year. (there were 2 others but they were multi-acre land sales with a tear-down house)

8481 E Milford Place  Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

“ the cheap talk is we’re off to the races again …”

From WSJ.com
Not so, according to Robert J. Shiller, Yale University professor and housing and markets authority, talks to Neal Lipschutz at Davos on the state of U.S. housing and stocks.

 

Here’s a link to the video on WJS.com > Shiller on Housing & Stocks < if the embedded link above doesn’t play.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

the first high-end price cuts of the new year

Since January 1st 78 homes have had price cuts;

66 in the $0 to $599,999 price range

9 in $600,000 to $999,999 price range

and until today not one home priced at $1.0 & up has cut its price. But today 3 did,
priced from $1,100,000 to $1,690,000

And, surprise surprise, the high-end is doing the least business and has by far the highest months of inventory of the bunch.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

 

trying for $1.3 in a $500k community

6831 N Skyway Drive, built in 2006 in Vista De Las Candelas, was listed for $1,400,000 in 2008 then dropped to $1,375,000 (really) then to $1,299,500 and expired unsold in July 2009.

Failing that it was then put up as a rental – whether or not it actually found a renter I don’t know – but it came back on the market last October as a short sale for $749,000 and dropped to $725,000 and went to contract today. What happened to $1.3. Well, as nice as it may be in VDLC, $1.3 is a dream that has never even come close to coming true. Since January 20005 47 homes sold in VDLC for an average/median sold price of $432,256/$400,000.

I’m pretty sure that I wrote about this Skyway Drive house back then, but I can’t find it. But I did find a piece I did in October 09 on 6825 N Calle Mechero - also in VDLC and also priced light years ahead of the market, to put it kindly, and also ended up as a distress sale selling for 31% of original list price.  where oh where did things go wrong

This is just another side of the high-end spec building boom that went on from 2005 – 2008 when builders were frantically putting up mega buck homes in not-so mega buck locations -virtually all of which failed.

6831 N Skyway Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by e-Realty & Investments 2896)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

foreclosures and short sales

You hear less about them these days, but they’re still with us. Looking at single family homes in the Tucson foothills there are;

27 for sale
24 are priced $139,500 to $499,900
3 at $609,900 to $825,000

That’s 7% of total inventory (378), that’s it, very small potatoes.

35 in contract
28 are priced $149,900 to $574,900
7 from $625,000 to $900,000

But with 117 total homes in contract, the 35 distress contracts represent just under 30% of all contracts - not such small potatoes. Which shows once again that buyers love a good deal and are willing to jump through the hoops and navigate the murky waters required to get one.

PS- the average/median list price of all non-distress sale homes in contract is
$527,763/$397,000 - while the average/median list for the 35 distress sales in contract is $412,721/$350,000.

And finally, the sold numbers – for the last 3 months;

40 sold
36 sold for $140,000 to $544,000
4 from $625,000 to $1,000,000

And with 185 total homes sold in the last 3 months distress sales were a tad over 21% of all sales. Which shows once again …..

PS – the average/median sold price of all non-distress sale homes is $473,853/$401,000 – while the average/median sold price for the 40 distress sales is  $346,608/$293,500. So, yes, distress sales continue to exert a downward drag on average prices and, I suppose, on appraisals.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

on Sabino Mountain

4388 N Sabino Mountain Drive is back on the market today. These sellers paid $920,000 in 2005, then tried for $1,395,000 and $1,295,000 in 2009. When it hit the market back then I commented - It last sold for $920,000 in July 05, and so it’ll be interesting to see if today’s buyers agree with the 51% price appreciation now being asked for this house. They didn’t, and that was that, it left the market 6 months later.

It was steeply reduced and listed again last year for $858,000 and still no-go. And now it’s back today, again trying for $858,000, or $181/sf, making it the least expensive house in its price range by $40 or more/sf on SM.

One obstacle may be that buyers are concerned that despite its gloried past, nothing has sold in the $800’s on SM in more than two years. Though there is one in contract at $895,000, and that may be the ice breaker.

4388 N Sabino Mountain Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Tucson Arizona Real Estate 34)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

making $$$ on short sales

7260 N Camino Sin Vacas sold for $770,000 in 06, then four years later was listed as a short sale and sold for $475,000 to the current owners who listed it again 36 days ago for $699,000, and today it’s in contract.

7260 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

in contract last week

From Monday January 14th thru Sunday January 20th 20 homes went to contract.

17 were priced from $171,000 to $585,000
+ 3 from  $659,000 to  $985,000
but nothing at $1.0 & up

another good week for contracts, as long as you’re not one of the 87 for sale at $1.0 & up

However, if you’re one of the 209 homes for sale priced from $0 to $599,999, assuming you’re at least in the ball park pricewise, you shouldn’t have long to wait. With just 209 for sale & 148 sold in the last 3 months there’s a skimpy 4 month supply of homes. Plus there are 88 in contract. And I sense that this market is still gaining steam. 

$600,000 to $999,999 is muddling along, not doing as well as I thought it would by now. 
81 for sale & 23 sold in the last 3 months works out to a 10.5 month supply. Not awful, but you’d better be spot-on with your price or be absolutely irresistible. + 19 in contract, so maybe it’s picking up.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

timing, and price

Up in Cobblestone 7411 N Catalina Ridge Drive was listed in 2011 for $2,350,000 and went nowhere. It was relisted 42 days ago for $1,950,000 and is reported in contract today.
Should it actually sell for anything close to list price it’ll be the highest sale in Cob since a $2,950,000 sale in 2008 and closer to a $1,710,000 sale in 2009. And quite a bit higher than anything since.

7411 N Catalina Ridge Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And quicker yet, in Pima Canyon, 1588 E Desert Garden Drive tried for $1,125,000 for 6 months in 2012 and failed to sell. But listed just 17 days ago at $1,090,000 it has already found a buyer.
1588 E Desert Garden Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

how’s the high-end market doing as we enter the new year

Since its peak in 2006 home sales at $1,000,000 and up dropped precipitously each year until they skidded along the bottom of the barrel from 2009 – 2011. Then in 2012 there was a 16% jump in sales, from 42 to 49 homes sold at a $mil+.

So it looks like a recovery could possibly, maybe, finally, be underway.

Last January I did a post titled how’s the high-end market doing and I thought it would be worth while to do a quick comparison of the state of the market then and now, as we once again enter our high season for home sales in the Tucson Foothills.

So  here goes; (the sold figures are for homes sold in the previous 3 months)

	January 2012	January 2013
# for sale @ avg list $$	75 @ $2,166,359	89 @ $1,905,591
# in contract @ avg list $$	10 @ $1,388,400	7 @ $1,333,571
# sold  @ avg sold $$	13 @ $1,350,154	8 @ $1,429,125
MOI	17+	33+

So for this January there are more $mil+homes for sale, fewer in contract and fewer sold in the last three months than there were last January. And, consequently, months of inventory has jumped, well, almost doubled. Nothing terribly encouraging there.

But on the bright side – the average list price is down and the average sale price is up this year. Causing the gap between the average list price of homes for sale and the average list price of those in contract and sold to shrink.

Last year, the average list price of homes for sale was 56% higher than the average list price of those in contract. This year it has shrunk to a 43% gap. 
And last year the  average list price of homes for sale was 60% higher than the average sold price of those sold. This year it has shrunk to 33%. And that’s all good news.

But this is the very beginning of the season and at this point there’s really no telling how sales and prices will fare in the next 4 or 5 months. But we’ll surely see soon enough.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

sold for over list, but

5141 E Camino Bosque went to contract in 4 days and sold for $425,000 from a $414,000 list price. And while that’s encouraging, unfortunately, it’s 32% less than the sellers paid ($625,000) in 2008. And it’s not a short sale or foreclosure – the sellers are taking the loss.

5141 E Camino Bosque Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

this looks good

back in the hay days of 2005 3455 E Corte Paloma Brava was listed for $789,000 and sold for $789,000.Today it’s listed for $599,000 ($194/sf). On the golf course and at the end of the
cul-de-sac too.  Hurry!

3455 E Corte Paloma Brava Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

REO’s, they’re still with us

4335 N Camino Kino, a 2005 built 3,666 sf home that sold new in 05 for $987,731 is now in contract after 14 days listed at $574,900, courtesy of Wells Fargo. It’s not to my liking but it looks like a lot of house for the money.

In order to stimulate a little bidding war the lender stipulates “No offers MLS days 1-7”. So if you’re bidding on this little gem you know that others are as well and you’ve got 7 days to get it right. But they do too. So the tendency is to raise your bid and wonder, and what-if it to death, and, after another anxious night, to raise it again. I’ll be very surprised if this doesn’t go for over list.

4335 N Camino Kino Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

my web site thefoothillsToday.com

is back up and running. Thank you for your patience.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

all the averages, for your favorite Tucson Foothills subdivision

Here’s the final tally for 2012 of the number of homes sold and for how much, on average, in some of our more popular foothills communities and subdivisions.

The data includes -  # homes sold – average sold $$ – average list $$ (at time of sale) –
% Sale Price/List Price – average Cumulative Days On Market (includes relistings within 30 days)

Where	# Sold	AVG sold $$	AVG list $$	AVG % SP/LP	AVG CDOM
Shadow Hills	20	$439,810	$461,305	95	69
Pima Cyn	17	$1,207,382	$1,309,759	92	249
Catalina Foothills Est 1-9	39	$527,641	$561,363	94	67
Cat 10	14	$1,080,107	$1,144,500	94	118
La Paloma Est	3	$1,148,000	$1,229,333	93	306
La Paloma (other than Est)	19	479,171	$500,531	96	87
Cobblestone	1	$1,004,965	$1,049,000	96	317
Canyons	2	$2,100,000	$2,745,000	76	527
Hacienda del Sol Est	6	$822,500	$893,817	92	120
Foothills ll	4	$1,119,875	$1,198,725	93	75
Skyline CC	14	$681,571	$739,521	92	91
Alta Vista	12	$863,583	$919,667	94	341
Cimarron	15	$487,257	$502,886	97	91
Fairfield	31	$354,460	$369,826	96	86
Ventana Cyn Golf Villlas	11	$357,877	$384,879	93	386
Ventana CC, Cyn Est, Whlbck.	10	$1,067,900	$1,170,190	91	184
Ventana Cyn Mountain Est	1	$1,700,000	$1,775,000	96	98
Sabino Mtn	14	$347,369	$363,950	95	86

This gives you an idea of the variety of home prices in the foothills and, on average, the prices you’ll encounter in different foothills communities. Plus, how close to list price homes sold (albeit based on the list price at time of sale, after relistings, if any) and, roughly, how long it took. And where you’re seeing CDOM numbers that are higher than 90 or 120 days you can be pretty sure that at least some of those homes had price cuts or even multiple price cuts –causing the %SP/LP to show as a much more positive figure than it really is.

For instance, using the average list price at time of sale (919,667) in Alta Vista shows a 94% SP/LP – but plugging in the average original list price ($958,992) yields a 90% SP/LP. Doing the same in Pima Canyon yields a 86% SP/LP vs. the 92 that will go down in the record books. I think the original list price & the list price at time of sale are both key figures to having a better understanding of the market. One more – using the original list price in La Paloma Estates drops the % SP/LP from 93% to 86.

In 2012 for the entire foothills – 817 homes sold – average sale price $460,183 – average list price $486,981 – = an average 94% SP/LP (90% using the original list price)– in an average of 110 days. The lowest priced sale was $66,000 and the highest $2,500,000.

Today there are 376 single family homes listed for sale at an average list price of $829,680 and they’ve been for sale for an average of 156 days.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

web site down

My web site www.thefoothillsToday.com is down – very sorry for the inconvenience.
The tech folks are working diligently to get it back up,

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

 

more fun with numbers

Over by Sabino Canyon 6161 N Canon Del Pajaro sold for $1,040,000 in 2006 and was listed a few months ago for $895,000. But that didn’t cut it, so it was reduced to $795,000 then to $775,000 to $750,000 to $700,000 to $659,000, and that did it, it’s in contract.
And, not surprisingly, it’s a short sale with what looks like $936,000 owed to Wells Fargo, so don’t hold your breath. 6161 N Canon Del Pajaro , Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

 
4820 E Salida Del Sol Place, an attractive mid-century modern, tried for $995,000 and $975,000 in 2012 and nothing happened. But relisted just 20 days ago at $935,000 it’s now in contract.  4820 E Salida Del Sol Place , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

And speaking of the vagaries of opinions of value, Zillow zestimates Canon Del Pajaro at $736,270 and Salida Del Sol at $787,365. But they nailed it at $520,000 for 6399 N Desert Wind Circle, which I mentioned yesterday closed at $525,000.

And for what it’s worth, a first look at sales for the 1st two weeks of this new year;
(which are from deals made last year)

19 homes sold for an average/median of $427,489/$380,000

vs. the 1st two weeks of 2012, when;

21 homes sold for an average/median of $585,448/$425,000

But it’s just 2 weeks and the flurry of contracts so far this year look very promising, but we’ll see.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

this too is the market

6399 N Desert Wind Circle sold for $475,000 in June 2000 and for $525,000 today - 10.5% appreciation in 12 years. That seems slim, and may not be strictly indicative of the market then and now. But individual buy and sell prices are subject to so many influences, other than professional opinions of market value as, let’s say, determined by a listing or buyers agent or an appraiser, that often there’s just no telling at what price a house will sell. 

And they tried for $719k and $649k in 2011, before getting to the high $5’s and eventually the mid $5’s, and that did it.  6399 N Desert Wind Circle Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

UPDATE – this just in,

7373 N Mystic Canyon Drive, in Pima Canyon, sold today, finally, for $670,000. The sellers paid $800,000 in 2001. I showed this house last spring when it was $749,000 and thought it was in the ball park - so much for professional opinions of value. And being one of the least expensive houses in PC didn’t hurt my opinion of it either.

At $670,000 it’s 4th lowest $$ sale in PC since the beginning of time, which for PC is 1999, when there was a sale for $546,000 and one in 2000 for $600,000 and another for $630,500.

Quite a deal, I’d say.

7373 N Mystic Canyon Drive  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona 4783)

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

they’re flying off the shelf

Listed yesterday for $899,000, 6271 N Whaleback Place is in contract.
It last sold in December 09 for $960,000.

6271 N Whaleback Place , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

Along with Whaleback there are 3 other quick sales

5305 N Estelle Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 – listed $319,000 went to contract in 10 days (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty) – despite having last sold for $220k in 2010 (and with no notable improvements) then tried for $332k, $307k and $297k in 2012 and failed to sell and expired in September. So, why now.

5360 N Post Trail Tucson, AZ 85750 – listed $429,000 and gone in 4 days – (listed by Long Realty) – last sold 2005 $576,000.

And 5102 E Camino Apolena Tucson, AZ 85718 – listed $500,000 and dawdled for 22 days before finding a buyer (listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizo 478306) – no prior sale but did try for $925k, $889k, etc, in 07, with no success.

3 quick sales

*a couple of these homes were included in the list of 35 contracts in yesterday’s post >
a slew of contracts < but were not mentioned individually nor did I note how quickly they went to contract.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

trying to make sense of appraisals

I’ve written often about appraisals – here  here – and it’s almost always been critical of low-ball appraisals that plagued the industry in 2011 and early in 2012, at a time when the market was trying to turn around but was being held back, at least to some extent, by appraisals that were based on stale data – as I wrote here

But in mid December, when 5335 E Camino Francisco Soza went to contract listed for $899,000, I questioned whether it should or could appraise for the sale price. But the sale closed yesterday for $868,500 with conventional financing, so I guess it did appraise. And that surprises me, but read what I wrote in that mid December post > buying the most expensive house on the block < and see what you think.

5335 E Camino Francisco Soza Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty, LLC 286607)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

a slew of contracts

In the post just below this one I noted with some fanfare that 14 homes went to contract in the first week of the new year. And then I wondered, could that be fluke, a temporary spurt, something that will quickly fade.

But now looking at the 7 days since then I see that 35 more homes have gone to contract. And it’s likely that even more will be reported.

of the 35,

28 are priced $125 – $599,000
5 are $695,000 – $999,000
1 each at $1,545,000 and $1,625,000

35 to contract

It’s only week 2 of the new year and anything can happen, but this is an awfully positive start.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

starting off with a BANG!

From January 1 thru January 6th 14 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills.

11 were priced from $175,000 to $449,000
1 at $749,000
1  each at $1,175,000 and $1,200,000

I think this is an encouraging start for the new year.

14 to contract

For the record, as of today there are 371 single family homes listed for sale,
broken down by price range as follows;

207 at $0 – $599,999
 79 at $600,000 – $999,999
 85 at $1,000,000 – $7,900,000

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

when the right one comes along

The 5 highest priced homes to go to contract in this new year are listed at $999,000, $1,175,000, $1,200,000, $1,545,000 and $1,625,000 - and 4 of the 5 were brand new listings (not relisted old listings) that went to contract in 6 days or less. The $1.2 house was gone before sunset on day 1. And they’re not foreclosures or short sales, and they’re not bargain basement priced either.

Back in 2009 – 2011, and less so in 2012, it was almost unheard of for homes in this price range to go to contract so quickly – unless they were foreclosures or short sales at blatantly bargain prices. But back then sales and prices were falling through the floor, and with no end in sight buyers correctly assumed that time was on their side.

But things have changed. And if these quick contracts are indicative of what is to be, taking a wait and see attitude may leave you empty handed.

But all is not rosy, there are still 88 homes listed for sale from $999,000 to $7,900,000, the majority of which have been on the market for months or years with no takers. And I have to assume that for many of them it’s all about price. What else can it be.

5 to contract

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

rising prices? apparently some think so

It’s just a trickle and they’re definitely in the minority, but I’ve noticed a few listings where the price has gone up not down. 

7557 N Secret Canyon Drive, on and off the market since October 2010 when it debuted at $5,500,000, and had dropped as low as $3,250,000, recently had its price raised to $3,500,000 ($668/sf). 
7557 N Secret Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

6290 E Placita El Vuelo, on the market since Feb 2012 starting at $964,900, it expired unsold in October after dropping to $955,000 but, nevertheless, came back the other day at $1,037,000.
6290 E Placita El Vuelo , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

I’ve noticed a couple of others but lost track and can’t seem to put my finger on them.

And who knows, they may be onto something. The market in Seattle and Silicon Valley has risen beyond mere rising prices and simple bidding wars to the point where would-be home buyers are writing emotional pitch letters to sellers, practically begging them to accept their over list price offers.

From WSJ.com
Can I Buy Your House, Pretty Please?

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

back to reality

Listed in 2009 for $1,350,000, 6142 E Hawks Nest Place sold today for $625,000 – as a foreclosure. This is in Rio Verde Vista where, since Jan 1 2008, there’ve been 38 sales with the average sale price hovering around $458,679.

But there were 2 sales that broke the bank during the height of the hilarity in 06, for $1,052,000 and $1,125,000. So maybe they figured, they did it, we can too. But that wasn’t to be in 09, and the $1,125,000 sale sold again in 08 for $575,000, also as a foreclosure. Meanwhile, the loan on the 06 sale was for 100% of purchase price ($1,125,000) courtesy of, not surprisingly, First Magnus Financial. One of the first, if not the first, to go belly up in meltdown of 07.

On the bright side there was a sale for $945,500 in 2011 and one for $960,000 in 2012 – the highest $$$ sales since 06 – so maybe things are turning around in RVV.

6142 E Hawks Nest Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Elite Real Estate Pros 4943)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a short sale sells, and it didn’t take forever

5911 E Placita Primitiva was listed in late August 2012 for $725,000, went to contract 4 days later, and closed today for $725,000. Nice n’ tidy. And even though they got what they asked for it still sat on mr. lenders back burner for 4 months. But that’s pretty quick in short sale time. I mentioned it back in August> hurry up and wait

The sellers paid $1,005,000 in 07 and it looks like the outstanding on it was $904,500.

5911 E Placita Primitiva , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

sensible pricing pays off

Just 5 days on the market and listed at $1,545,000 ($352/sf), 7562 N WHISPER CANYON Place in Pima Canyon is reported in contract. And it doesn’t surprise me. When it was listed last week I suggested that you might want to  Hurry!

7562 N Whisper Canyon Place (an actual NEW Listing)
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

this never saw the light of day

7456 E Quiet Mountain Place a new house in Ventana Reserve, an AF Sterling community east of Kolb and north of Sunrise, showed up in the mls today first as a new listing, then as Pending and finally as sold, for $762,393.  All within about 45 minutes. Of course that’s not the way it actually went down, but that’s all we’ll ever know.

7456 E Quiet Mountain Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by AF Sterling Marketing L.L.C. 2075)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

gearing up for the new year

Already, just 7 days into the new year and there are 30 new listings.

10 priced from $1,090,000 to $1,895,000, two of which caught my eye.

5372 E Gleneagles Drive, aside from its other virtues, sits on 5.2 acres in Skyline CC – lots of that size are rare anywhere in the foothills and more so in places like Skyline. And it’s not one of those bowling alley lots either, where your 5 acres is 80 ft wide and 2 miles long, leaving you with 4 1/2  absolutely useless acres - except to the tax man. (listed by Long Realty)

And a yet to be completed new spec home in Finisterra priced at $1,895,000 ($349/sf) has joined the fray. (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)
Encouraged, perhaps, by the spec that did eventually sell last July in Finisterra. It went for $2,500,000 ($280/sf) off a $3,500,000 ($392/sf) list price that had been reduced from its debut price $4,200,000 ($470/sf) in Feb 2010.

10 new listings from $1,090,000

And 11 new listings from $159,900 to $590,000 – so about the same as for the $mil+ homes – even though this price range is out selling the upper-end by leaps and bounds.

And 9 new listings for the middle of the market – homes priced $600,000 to $999,999 –
so a very fair and even distribution of new listings.

And then there are approximately 20 so-called New Listings that are actually relisted old listings. That is, listings that have been on the market for a month or a year or however long, and either expired or were cancelled and relisted shortly thereafter, sometimes just minutes thereafter. And, while technically they may be new listings, because they have a new mls #, does anyone really consider them New Listings? No one that I know does, why would you?

And I wonder, doesn’t labeling them New Listings fly in the face of serving the public with honest and full disclosure as is so often touted by the real estate industry, to say nothing of causing consumers to flee to Zillow, Trulia and other sources for their real estate information?

I could see it, labeling a relisted old listing as a New Listing, if it were relisted by a different listing agent and broker. That makes sense to me, the new listing agent should be able to start off fresh while trying to apply their marketing know-how. But when it’s the same agent/broker just relisting an old listing, nah. But that’s how the system works, or, depending on your point of view, doesn’t work.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

Sunday mornings at St. Phillips Plaza

there’s a really nice farmers market worth checking out. (also on Saturday)

Having just finished my morning bike ride along the Rillito I was on my bike and couldn’t get in amongst all the stalls. But there’s a lot of good stuff, a good deal of it food related – fresh local produce and meats, honey, herbs/spices, bakers and candle stick makers, and like that – and it draws a good crowd. And if you’re up for breakfast/brunch or lunch you can get a table on the patio at Union Public House (free plug) and observe the goings-on with a bloody mary in hand.

and there’s usually some live music

It’s one of the many nice things about being in this part of the foothills.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

let the games begin

As we head into the new year there are 359 single family homes listed for sale and 99 in contract in the Tucson Foothills.

here’s how the 359 & 99, brake down by price range;

57% of the homes for sale & 80% of those in contract are priced $0 to $599,999

21% of the homes for sale & 15% of those in contract are priced $600,000 to $999,999

22% of the homes for sale & 5% of those in contract are priced $1,000,000 to $7,900,000

   The average/median list price of the 359 for sale is $816,551/$534,500
   The average/median list price of the 99 in contract is $462,322/$379,000

*here’s a link to a virtually identical post I did last January 2012 > what’s in contract
and with eerily similar results.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

December home sales and prices in the Tucson Foothills

December was mediocre month for home sales in the foothills. Sales were within range but still a tad below the last couple a months and well below Dec 2011. But as we know home sales in the foothills are up 19% (810 vs. 679) over 2011 – thanks largely to sales of lower priced homes.

And a mixed bag for prices as well. Average prices up a bit, but the median dropped.

56 sold in December 2012

But that’s yesterday’s news. What matters now is today and tomorrow. And on that note The Wall Street Journal reports that - Home Prices Poised for Growth in 2013

Earlier in 2012 I was fairly certain that prices were poised to rise, now, I’m less certain.
Average/Median sold prices for 2011 - $467,836/$383,000
Average/Median sold prices for 2012 - $461,003/$375,000

Place your bets,

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

old is new again

and better than ever. In Skyline Country Club 6750 N Mamaronick Drive, a 1965 burnt adobe territorial, has had a top to bottom remodel, transforming it into a modern 21st century home. 

There are just a few pictures from when it sold in 2006, before the remodel, but even so,
I think you can get the gist of it.

From then,

 

to now;

And unfortunately, modern remodels like this are rare in the Foothills. So if this looks like your thing, you may want to jump on it -  it was listed today for $649,000 – after selling in 2006 for $670,000, before the remodel.

6750 N Mamaronick Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty) 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

cutting to the chase

A new listing in Pima Canyon looks like a winner, and right out of the box is priced well below it’s 2005 sale price.

7562 N Whisper Canyon Place, listed today at $1,545,000 last sold in 05 for $1,729,000.

Hurry!

7562 N WHISPER CANYON Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a good start

the first working day of 2013 and already two upper-end homes are in contract,

3420 E Finger Rock Circle, $1,175,000 in Cobblestone, on the market since last March has a buyer in tow. Finger Rock last sold in 2007 for $1,300,000.

And 4911 N Avenida De Vizcaya, in Hacienda del Sol Estates, on the market since this morning, yes just hours, and listed at $1,200,000 is also in contract. It last sold in 2003 for $1,200,000 – which may have tipped the scales.

See them HERE (both listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

home sales rise in 2012

Yes they did. Single family home sales are up 19% over 2011 –
679 sold in 2011 - 810 in 2012. (and we’re likely to see at least a few more sales reported).

That’s a healthy jump in sales. But it’s also a very lopsided jump, with the low end of the market carrying most of the increase – 92% of it, actually.

In 2012 -
658 homes sold from $66,000 to $599,999 – 120 more than in 2011
103 sold from $600,000 to $999,999 – 3 more than in 2011
49 sold from $1,000,000 and Up – 7 more than in 2011

Happy New Year!

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home