The Catalina Foothills

searching for a home in the Tucson Foothills

I ran this piece a few years ago and I ran across it and thought that it’s just as appropriate today, maybe even more so since there are fewer homes for sale, so I ran a new search and updated the numbers and here it is again.

There are 391 single family homes for sale in the foothills and with that many homes you’d think you would find plenty to choose from.

OK, let's look at a hypothetical buyer looking for a home in the Tucson Foothills with a price range of $750,000 to $900,000.

At $750,000 to $900,000 there are 31 homes for sale, more than plenty, really too too many. Absolutely, so let’s start entering your preferences in the search and see what we come up with.
- let’s start with the key criteria, bedrooms and baths,
- 4 bedrooms & 3 or more baths, bingo, that narrows it down to a much more manageable
16  homes
- and you’d like somewhere between 3000 to 4000 sq ft - no prob, 15 homes. Nice.
- you want about an acre, let's say .80 or more – 13 winners
- and in District 16 schools - OK, 10 homes, Perfect!
- (or, you don’t care whether it’s District 16 or not but you do want to be in 85718 zip, that  leaves 6 homes)
- and you only want single story, yes of course-  7 really great homes to choose from
- and you don’t want an older home, nothing built before 2000 – aha – OK, that’s 2 to choose from.
- or, alternatively, you’d like an older home, a burnt adobe from 60’s or 70’s. In that case we’re done, there’s just 1 to choose from. Let’s write it up.

And we didn't even get into the style or whether it’s in a gated or non-gated area, city or mountain views, and other typical buyer preferences. And of course, you want to get a good deal too. Geez,

It happens every time. Once you start breaking down all the homes for sale in the Foothills, which run the gamut from under $200k to over $7 mil, you end up with too few, not too many, to choose from.

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another contract in the high $8’s

Listed at $899,000, 5000 N Calle Bujia, in Las Alturas, is in contract today after just 80 days.

Last week I said >  it looks like the $800k range is waking up  and then a couple of days later a house on Piedra Seca, listed at $850k went to contract,

And now this,
5000 N Calle Bujia  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

6 down - 23 to go

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sold again in Alta Vista

6155 E Avenida De Chaparron, apparently a very popular house, first sold in 02 for $870,000, in 04 for $965,000, in 06 for $1,267,000 and again yesterday for $900,000 ($204/sf), from a $980,000 list. A 2002 price, give or take, so it seems safe to say these buyers did well.

6155 E Avenida De Chaparron Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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a contract in the $900’s

In Cat10 5180 N Camino Sumo, listed at $950,000, is reported in contract today. Yeah!
Yeah because this is the first contract in the $900’s since January 29th. Yes, hard to believe but true, two full months and not a single contract for homes listed from $900,000 to $999,999.

And, interestingly, 5180 sold for $1,100,000 in 06 and was listed in 2011 and into April of 2012 for $875,000 and, after 9 months and no sale, was taken off the market until this January.

5180 N Camino Sumo , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by  Long Realty)

We’ve had sales in the $900’s, three this year, one of which closed today, but they’re all from deals that were made in January. When the upper-end market appeared, briefly, ready to catch fire. 

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contracts

5870 N Piedra Seca sold for $1.2mil in 06 and went to contract today as short sale listed at $850,000. If there’s any consolation it’s that it was over fast, just 10 days from listing to contract.

5870 N Piedra Seca Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by  Long Realty)

Just 3 other contracts today, at $239,000, $354,000 and $420,000. Oh, and 6966 N Javelina Drive, that I mentioned last week when it went to contract - it took a few months longer than I thought it would - it’s back on the market, DFT. (deal fell thru)

That’s Thursday,

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need a Skylight or Skylight repair

Desert Living, Inc., owned and operated in Tucson by Brent Olson since 1977, specializes in skylight installation, replacement, leak detection, and repair. Desert Living, Inc. offers installation of skylight products that are designed to perform well in the desert climate of Tucson. Products include acrylic, glass, and tubular skylights. These can be fixed, manual, or electric operable and can be accessorized with manual, electric, or solar powered blinds.

For more info see the web site > DesertlivingTucson.com or contact Brent at 520-907-2072 for a free estimate. I know Brent personally and heartily recommend him.

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still looking for a rental house

At the beginning of the month I wrote about a pilot with the Royal Netherlands Air Force,  who will be the commanding officer of the Dutch F-16 flight training at the Tucson ANG, that was looking for an unfurnished rental house for him and his family for the coming 3 years.
They’re still looking,

see here for the details > looking for a good rental house for 3 years <

If you know of anything, please contact me  [email protected]

Thank you.

 

Alta Vista’s on a roll

Listed at $1,199,000 ($252/sf), 6597 N Calle De La Lluvia, a spec home, is in contract today after 420 days. And, with nerves of steel, not even a teeny price cut in all 420 days.

That’s 4 contracts for AV in the last 10 days, at – $729,000, $895,000, $895,000 again, and now $1,199,000 + one at $899,000 from earlier in the month, on a big roll,

6597 N Calle De La Lluvia Tucson, AZ 85750  (street of rain)
(listed by Long Realty)

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what do you get for $225,000

a 1956 burnt adobe, 1536 sf on just under half an acre. Someone wanted it, 5 days and it’s in contract,

235 W Ocotillo Vista Tucson, AZ 85704
(listed by Long Realty)

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Zillow vs. actual sale prices

Here are 12 single family homes that sold since March 10th in the Tucson Foothills. From the MLS I pulled everything that sold from 3/10 and started with the highest sale and worked my way down, no cherry picking to make a point.

Address	Zillow’s Zestimate	Actual Sale price
3561 E Calle Puerta De Acero	$1,364,112	$1,600,000
3420 E Finger Rock Circle	$1,004,472	$1,135,000
6440 N Via Del Emigrado	$572,012	$700,000
4950 N Camino Arenosa	$684,360	$690,000
6261 N Cadena De Montanas	$653,200	$650,000
6750 N MAMARONICK Drive	$524,805	$649,000
4720 E Mission Hill Drive	$556,867	$637,500
7390 E Wikieup Circle	$506,267	$580,000
6500 N Desert Breeze Court	$559,211	$560,000
3455 E Corte Paloma Brava	$568,617	$560,000
6290 E Placita Lozana	$506,470	$550,000
8061 E Paseo De Beatriz	$521,134	$532,500

So, some good hits, but some big misses. But, really, what can you expect from an algorithm that never sets foot on the ground.

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we’re ahead by a nose

Looking at single family homes sales in the Tucson Foothills for the period of  
January 1st to March 25th - last year vs. this year

Year	# sold	Avg./Med  Sold	CDOM	% sale/list	$$/SF
2012	160	$458,413  $359,375	136	95.73	$160
2013	178	$463,604  $383,000	95	95.94	$159

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in contract last week

From Monday March 18th thru Sunday  March 24th there were 28 contracts on single family homes. This is the 3rd straight week with 28 or more contracts, a pretty fair amount, and all of it in March, and after a very lackluster February. The numbers for the previous week are HERE

20 are priced from $139,000 to $599,000
6 from $618,000 to $895,000  (4 of them are $825 to $895)
2 at $1,320,000 and $1499,000

Contracts tell you where the market is right now, and from the looks of it this market has improved in the last few weeks.

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in Alta Vista

A new listing popped up in AV today, at 5859 E Placita Alta Reposa, for $845,000 ($225/sf). And given the recent spurt of activity in AV I wouldn’t be surprised to see more sellers take the plunge and list their homes. 5859 E Placita Alta Reposa Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by SJK Properties LLC 2274)

The other day I mentioned that in the past week in a period of five days 4 homes went to contract, listed at – $825, $865, and two at $895 – that was for all of the foothills.

But the 2 at $895 are in AV, and earlier in the month there was an $899 contract and another at $729. So even with the scarcity of contracts on homes in the $800’s, AV is holding its own.

And I’ll bet price is playing a big part - the 4 contracts are at an average of $216/sf and the highest of the bunch is at $224/sf. And that’s list price. In the good old days AV was selling from the high $200’s to about $340/sf.

And there are a lot families with kids in AV and with school getting out soon, it’s getting to the time when parents want to make that move.

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nothing lasts forever

5120 N Hacienda Del Sol Road sold 3 months ago for $1,140,000 and is back on the market today for $1,250,000. (listed by Long Realty)

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well, the low end continues to flourish

Since Saturday 5 single family homes have gone to contract, at $142,500, $220,000, $299,900, $459,900 and $499,000. That’s it. Leaving the 219 homes for sale from $499,001 to $7,900,000 untouched and, I presume, anxiously awaiting a buyer. 

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what’s happening in Hamptons (as in South, East & Bridge) real estate

In today’s New York Times > Well Before Summer, Hamptons Luxury Real Estate Is Scorching. It’s an interesting and amusing read about the turnaround in Hamptons real estate, which may even bear some similarities to what’s happening here in the foothills – the Hamptons are also a 2nd home, discretionary purchase market, albeit at a gazillion $$$$ and Up.  And for me it’s bit nostalgic too. I spent many summers in the Hamptons from about age13 and into my early 20’s – many moons ago. And it was wonderful back then, easy, breezy and fun, and while it was also a popular getaway from the rigors of life in NYC, it was fairly accessible to those of middle class means. Today, forgetaboutit

Here are a few passages that stood out for me;

Harald Grant, a senior vice president of Sotheby’s International Realty, has already rented out an oceanfront house in Southampton for $550,000 for the month of August alone and has a stack of 14 contracts and purchase memos on his desk representing pending sales of $4.5 million to $25 million.

For high-rolling renters, Mr. Grant has a trio of oceanfront rentals in Southampton that can be had for the summer for $400,000, $600,000 or $800,000. Why pay $25 million to buy, and more to maintain, a summer getaway when you can rent and run? Or, for a million or so, you can rent year round.
(I wonder, is that happening here in the foothills, are would-be 2nd home buyers now opting to rent for the season instead of buying)

“But in general what’s different this season,” Mr. Grant said, “is that in the mind of most buyers, less is more, and nobody wants to be the king of the hill and flaunt their wealth the way people were doing before the recession. (or spend the money for the privilege of being KOTH)

“Folks who spent $20,000 for a month’s rental,” he continued, “may be looking to spend $15,000. Folks who could be driving a Rolls-Royce are settling for a Mercedes. People aren’t saying, ‘I have to have it; I’ll pay anything,’ and writing checks on the spot. An owner who says, ‘I want $32 million for my oceanfront house’ probably isn’t going to get it. He’ll get somewhere in the mid-20s.” (ditto, Aha)

Properties under $1.4 million (their low-end) in turnkey condition are, said Caroline Sarraf of Brown Harris Stevens, “flying off the shelves,

“Value was the word of the year for 2012,” Mr. Gicking added. “The smart money watched and waited patiently for a correctly priced home, and among prime properties in the most desirable areas, we’ve seen bidding wars continuing into 2013, a clear indicator that, after a few turbulent years, buyers are confident about jumping back into the Hamptons market again.”

The record price for a house remains the $60 million paid in 2008 for 108 Gin Lane in Southampton, but not every buyer operates on an elastic budget.

(but even in the Hamptons) Back on less rarefied ground, Ms. Desiderio said, most transactions in 2012 occurred in the $500,000-to-$999,000 range, where shared baths occasionally apply. “There were 542 recorded sales, more than any other price category.”

“For years,” Ms. Saatchi said, “time was on the buyers’ side. They would look and look and from one visit to the next, prices would go down and inventory up. Now, waiting is starting to mean higher prices and fewer choices. As in the city, we’re running out of prime inventory.” (Yes - for the lower-end and screaming deals in almost any price range and maybe for prime properties that are attractively priced, but otherwise No)

Well Before Summer, Hamptons Luxury Real Estate Is Scorching

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it looks like the $800k range is waking up

During all of February and thru the first two weeks of March a grand total of just 3 homes listed in the $800’s went to contract. But that all changed this past week when in a period of five days 4 homes went to contract, listed at – $825, $865, and two at $895, hubba-hubba.

And now maybe the $900’s, which has been hibernating since January, are up next.

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what a long slow trip it’s been

looking at single family homes sales in the Tucson Foothills from Jan 2004 thru this March 15, 2013 for prices - and thru December 2012 for # of homes sold.

So far this year the # of homes sold is up about 12 % over the same period last year.

 

 

Sales have certainly turned the corner and prices appear to possibly be following suit, albeit in baby steps.

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sold in the last 30 days

76 single family homes sold in the Tucson Foothills in the last 30  days. And with 383 for sale, overall, we’re looking at a skimpy 5 months of inventory. 383 ÷ 76 = 5.03

For a closer look at how those sales break down by price range click > Market Snapshot
You’ll see that $0 – $599 is doing great and carrying most of the load. And $600 – $999 has picked up and also appears to be doing well. But, in fact, 12 of the 14 sales in that range are huddled at the lower end - from $611,500 to $725,000 - and then one each at $935 and $980k.

And a million and up is, let’s say, looking promising – in addition to the 5 sold there are 8 in contract. So it’s definitely in play.

76 Sold

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everyone loves a good deal

5801 E FINISTERRA was listed 9 days ago for $1,320,000 ($116/sf), courtesy of mr lender, after a long and uneventful journey from $3,887,000 

And, with multiple offers for over list price, a lucky buyer has now been chosen, it’s in contract today. Deals like this just don’t wait around.

5801 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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it took a few months longer than I thought it would

but 6966 N Javelina Drive is in contract. This is seldom found new construction in Skyline CC, like brand new, and not a knockdown either, which is typical in Skyline. And it’s a contemporary, also rare. Listed at $1,499,000 ($283/sf).

The lot was purchased in 04 for $672,500. Yikes!

6966 N Javelina Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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in contract last week

From Monday 3/11 thru Sunday 3/17, 28 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills. This is a continuation of the welcome jump in contracts that we saw during the previous week. Though, for the current week, just one contract above $750.

21 from $156,000 to $550,000
6 from $699,000 to $750,000
1 lonely contract over a million @ $1,750,000

And worth mentioning, again, for some reason there hasn’t been one single contract for a home listed in the $900’s for all of February and so far into March. So 48 days and counting. And the $800’s, with just 3 contracts, isn’t doing so great either.

PS - there are 19 listed for sale from $900 to $999 and 25 from $800 to $899. Where are those buyers, for what had been a very popular upper middle-end price range here in the foothills. 

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this buyer made out

3561 E Calle Puerta De Acero was listed on 2/9 for $1,750,000, went to contract on 3/12, and closed yesterday for $1,600,000. This is a great house at a very good price. And given that it was on the market just one month it went for less than I would have thought.

previously mentioned here > this doesn’t surprise me one bit <

3561 E Calle Puerta De Acero  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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yeah, but what is it

7422 N Mystic Canyon Drive was first listed in January 2007 and over the years has had a few different listing agents, all of whom have struggled to put its many charms into words. It’s been described as a STUNNING CONTEMPORARY –

Aha, OK

and, AN HOMAGE TO THE HISTORICAL LANDMARK NEIGHBORHOOD OF TUCSON'S SNOB HOLLOW (think downtown Tucson's El Presidio), this home blends a diversity of building styles: American Territorial & Contemporary, w/a hint of Victorian and Mission Revival.
(well, other than Mongolian Yurt, what else is there)

 

and, finally, a UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY IN PIMA CANYON ESTATES!
which, I think, really captures it.

 

 

 

 

But all of it was wasted effort, that is, until today. It started in 2007 at $1,475,000 and today, now listed as a foreclosure at $699,900, found a buyer.

I mentioned it in 2010 “ … is now $898,500 ($239/sf) down from $975,000, which is down from the $1,475,000 it started at in 2007. The house is, shall we say, unique,”

7422 N Mystic Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Integra Group Real Estate, LLC 4187)

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the sold numbers for this year

154 single family homes sold from Jan 1 – March 14.

118 sold from $108,000 to $580,000  (76.6% of total sales)
  27 sold from $611,500 to $980,000  (17.5 of total)
    9 sold from $1,015,000 to $1,700,000 (5.8% of total)

They sold for an average/median of $468,914/$383,000 at an average of $161/sf
in an average of 99 cumulative days on market (CDOM)

For the same period last year there were 137 sales.

107 sold from $137,000 to $575,000 (78% of total)
  21 sold from $600,000 to $950,000  (15.3% of total)
   9 sold from $1,010,000 to $1,795,000 (6.5% of total)

They sold for an average/median of $469,813/$365,000 at an average of $162/sf
in an average of 143 cumulative days on market (CDOM)

So sales are up 12% this year and they’re selling 31% faster than last year, and we’re in virtually a dead heat on selling prices. Which is all positive, even for prices. Because until very  recently sale prices were still lagging those of 2012. The uptick was in the 14 days of March when sale prices jumped to $563,309/$515,750 from Jan – Feb’s average of $442,169/$369,400

Stay tuned.

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the pain of buying then and selling now

in the villages of La Paloma, 3455 E Corte Paloma Brava sold for $789,000 (list price) in 2005 and for $560,000 the other day. Though it was over quickly, just 20 days from listing to contract.

This is a stark reminder of why many would-be sellers are reluctant or, more often, unable to sell their homes. These people just took about a $270k hit.

previously mentioned here > in the villages of La Paloma <

3455 E Corte Paloma Brava Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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sold for a teeny bit over list

6440 N Via Del Emigrado was listed on Jan 30th for $699,000 and closed yesterday for $700,000 ($244/sf) in Alta Vista. While sales at list price or more are still quite rare it’s important to know that they do occur from time to time. And, unlike a year or two ago, not just with fire sale priced distress sales. And a lot of the credit for these list price sales is due to sellers listing at more realistic prices, and not due to wildly escalating prices. Also, for what it’s worth, Emigrado last sold in 2001 for $499,900, so 40% appreciation in 12 long  years – 3.33%/year.

6440 N Via Del Emigrado Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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this is the highest $/sf sale in Fleicha Caida in 3 years

That’s the good news. Listed for $980,000 ($320/sf) last May and eventually reduced to $799,000, 4950 N Camino Arenosa sold today for $690,000 – ($227/sf). 
And this is FC not PC, so what do you expect, $690,000 is also the 2nd highest sale price in 3 years in FC – top honors go to a lucky buyer who paid $730,000, though just ($192/sf) in Feb 2011.

Location, location
Fleicha Caida is a very nice place to be, as long as you’re not trying to sell a home for a Million $$$.

4950 N Camino Arenosa  Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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sold for list price in Skyline CC

6750 N Mamaronick Drive, listed on Jan 3rd for $649,000, closed yesterday for $649,000 ($264/sf) – sort of pricey for a smallish (2,459 sf) 1965 built burnt adobe that was remodeled. 

And going back 9 months it is the highest $$/sf sale price in Skyline, and by more than just a few bucks too. The next highest was at $221/sf.

But, supply & demand, as I mentioned when 6750 was listed,  “modern remodels like this are rare in the Foothills. So if this looks like your thing, you may want to jump on it”
And maybe more than one buyer did.

6750 N Mamaronick Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

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Ivy Zelman says

‘We’re in Nirvana for Housing’

OK great, but who the heck is Ivy Zelman?

Ms. Zelman is the CEO of Zelman & Associates and holds over 18 years of experience covering housing and housing-related industries at various points in her career.

Zelman & Associates

Institutional Investor

Bloomberg Link

WSJ.com

A scarcity of homes for sale and record-low mortgage rates are setting up for a bullish real estate market, Zelman & Associates CEO Ivy Zelman said Thursday on CNBC.

"I think we're in nirvana for housing," she said. "I think that I have to tell you, I'm probably the most bullish I've ever been fundamentally, and I'm dating myself, been around for over 20 years, so I've seen a lot of ups and downs."

On "Fast Money," Zelman likened consumer sentiment to a battleship pointing down for the past several years.

"And then the inventory cleared, the blight goes away, consumers feel better and now it's really this urgency to go find a house," she said. "I'll tell you, there are Realtors blanketing neighborhoods, asking people to sell their homes."

Zelman correctly called both the housing market's top in 2005 and the bottom in 2012.

(Read More: Housing Recovery Leaves Some Behind)

Housing prices are poised to continue rising for the next four to six years, she added.

With all due respect for Ms. Zelman’s excellent record in making these calls, but from low interest rates and inventory and more upbeat consumer sentiment she (somehow) gets to Nirvana and rising prices for the next 4 to 6 years. That’s a big leap. 

Interest rates and inventory are low and consumers are more upbeat. But, unless they’re behaving very differently elsewhere, and they may well be, here in the foothills they’re also treading very carefully and putting a very sharp pencil to any potential purchase. And walking away when it doesn’t add up.

Who can predict what’s going to happen in the next 4 to 6 years. Myself, I’d also consider other opinions, including Robert Schiller’s, before counting my chickens.

A New Housing Boom? Don’t Count on It
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: January 26, 2013
The New York Times

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looking for 11,336 sf of glamorous living

Step right this way,

5801 E Finisterra, in guard-gated Finisterra, is, after a long and uneventful journey from $3,887,000, now available for $1,320,000 ($116/sf), courtesy of mr lender. Yes, not a typo, $116/sf.

This could be quite the deal for the right buyer.
1.41 acres at the tippy-top of Finisterra bordering the national forest, built 1991, masonry construction, 6 Beds/5 Baths + 2 half baths, 2 story (though previous listings called it 3 story??), pool/spa and so on. 

5801 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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a welcome jump in contracts last week

From Monday March 4th thru Sunday March 10th 29 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills. This is more weekly contracts than we’ve seen since those carefree days of early January. And, ironically, it follows the worst week for contracts we’ve had this year, see here>  (click HERE for the previous week’s dismal numbers)

22 were priced from $156,000 to $580,000
4 from $625,000 to $899,999
3 from $1,000,000 to $2,849,000 (all 3 in PC)

And rather than them all being huddled at the lower-end, there was a fairly respectable showing from the middle and upper-end of the market.

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this doesn’t surprise me one bit

3561 E Calle Puerta De Acero was listed 31 days ago at $1,750,000 and is reported in-contract today. I went to see it a couple days after it was listed and from the house called some clients of mine to tell them about it. But for various reasons it wasn’t right them. Darn.

It’s no secret that I’m a great admirer of Mike Wachs work, it’s the real thing, and 3561 is a great example. Though, take note, the magnificence of the house and setting surpass what’s been captured in the photos.

3561 E Calle Puerta De Acero Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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the latest Alarm system scam

from the Catalina Foothills HOA;

Some neighbors have been contacted by an alarm company called Security Networks, although they don’t identify themselves as such. I have received complaints from those who are customers of ADT Alarm Systems, and others. The Security Networks caller or visitor indicates that they have been authorized by ADT (or whatever your system is) to offer an upgrade to a better and less expensive system. These people may be driving the neighborhood to look for yard signs identifying alarm system customers. They attempt to sign customers to a 5-year contract for their system, which would actually replace ADT or whatever system the customer currently has. An online check of security systems and alarm companies reveals many, many complaints against Security Networks and their techniques. Although they indicate they will arrange for the change in billing from your current company, that apparently doesn’t happen, resulting in a period of double billing. The complaints about this company sound very much like the recent information I received from the Garden District NA in central Tucson about GE Honeywell representatives going door-to-door and pressuring people into buying their service. Last year, the Tucson Citizen did a report on such sales tactics:

In the Citizen article entitled "Door-To-Door Security System Sales Leave Customers Feeling Unsafe:, they give the following tips from the Better Business Bureau:

• Always think safety first. If you're home alone and don't recognize the person, don't open the door. If they are a legitimate company, they will leave a brochure or business card.
• Be aware that because you have a security sign or other type of sign in your yard, you could be a target for this type of unethical selling practices.
• Always, always check with your own security company, or other company, first. You can even ask the sales representative to wait outside while you do. If they are telling the truth, why would they mind waiting?
• Scare tactics may not work on everyone but they can on our senior citizens and others who have no one to turn to for advice. If you believe this type of business practice is happening in your neighborhood, please call the police and let them know. At least there will be a record on file.
• Tell your Neighborhood Watch if there is one established. BBB can come out and speak to your group on this matter and other scams to advise you of the red flags to be aware of.
• Finally, if there will be any changes to your service you will be contacted by your company. You won't hear this information from someone who knocks at your door, and especially someone who tries to scare you. Try and remember the name of the company the person is representing and file a complaint with BBB. Trust and truth in the marketplace is all of our responsibility.

Do not sign any contracts with alarm vendors without doing some investigation first.

now’s your chance

After having left the market last November at $5.2mil, 6620 N Eagle Ridge came back on today at $4,595,000 - after starting out in 09 at $8,250,000.

Nevertheless, it’s pretty special, designed by Rick Joy and featured in the National Building Museum exhibit.

6620 N Eagle Ridge Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

is the foothills market in better shape this March than in the past

right now there’s a 5.4 month supply of homes for sale in the foothills
379 for sale ÷ 70 sold in last 30 days = 5.4 month supply, a much touted number.

In March 2012 there was a 4.7 month supply (342 for sale/73 sold)
In March 2011 there was a 7.9 month supply (475 for sale/60 sold)
In March 2010 there was a 9.7 months supply (496 for sale/51 sold)
In March 2009 there was a 12.8 month supply (564 for sale/44 sold)
In March 2008 there was a 12.2 months (546 for sale/42 sold)

So yes, without splitting hairs, this year’s numbers are roughly the same as last year’s, which was a big improvement from past years. So far so good.

But as usual it’s quite a different story when broken down by price range.
in March 2012, it looked like this;

$0 – $599 was squeaky tight at 3.3 months supply (193 for sale/58 sold)

$600 – $999 was at 7.8 months (78 for sale/10 sold)

$1.0m – $1.499 was 9 months (27 for sale/3 sold)

$1.5m – $1.999 was 11.5 (23 for sale/2 sold)

$2.0m & UP was anyone’s guess (21 for sale/0 sold)

in March 2013, it looks like this;

$0 – $599 is still very tight at 3.9 month supply (201 for sale/52 sold)

$600 – $999 is virtually the same at 8 months supply (88 for sale/11 sold)

$1.0 – $1.499 comes in at 11.5 months supply this year (not drastically different from last year)but, months of supply aside, it’s a much more challenging market than last year’s due to 19 more homes for sale and just one more sold  (46 for sale/4 sold).

$1.5 – $1.999 with just one less for sale & one more sold (22 for sale/3 sold) it works out to a 7.3 month supply vs.11.5 last year. Hmm, the numbers don’t lie, right. I have my doubts but we’ll see how it pans out.

$2.0 & UP is once again anyone’s guess (22 for sale/0 sold)

And, while we’re at it, what about prices, the average/median for that Feb/March 30 day period,
in March 2012 it was $457,110 / $365,000
in March 2013 it is $493,337 / $376,000 
Up is better than down but it’s still just one 30 day period. And prices jump up and down like crazy from one month to the next. So I’d hold off on the cheer until we see three or four or more months of steadily rising prices.

That’s March for you,

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

another upper-end sale that went to contract in early January

6223 N Desert Moon Loop, which was listed on 1/9, went to contract 3 days later and closed yesterday for $980,000 ($283/sf).

6223 N Desert Moon Loop Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

The action was fast-paced back then, all of two months ago, and noted often:

sensible pricing pays off

when the right one comes along

starting off with a BANG!

a slew of contracts

they’re flying off the shelf

Those were the days!

**unfortunately the links to the listings within those posts (or any post) expire after just 30 days – it’s an annoying limitation of our flex mls system, and there’s nothing I can do about it, sorry**

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

there’s a right price for everything

4505 N Quartz Hill Drive, aptly described in the listing as - “ A ''CLIFFHANGER'' ONLY FOR THE DARING* Overlooking ALL the Tucson Valley … MANY STEPS IN HOME. It's all about the VIEWS VIEWS VIEWS!” - went to contract late yesterday after recently dropping to $429,900 following a long journey from its $899,000 debut price in 2011.

It last sold in 2003 for $380,000.

4505 N Quartz Hill Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

in contract last week

Monday February 25th thru Sunday March 3rd was the slowest week for contracts that I can remember, just 12 homes went to contract - in July maybe, OK – but February?? Blame it on the weather, I do.  (click HERE for the previous week’s numbers)

10 were priced from $200,0000 to $499,000
1 at $825,000 
1 at $1,395,000

but they’re smiling big on Sabino Mt – with both the $825,000 & $1,395,000 deals hitting in the same week, and that’s after a lengthy dry spell up there. Go figure.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

 

two good sales and a big contract

Late yesterday afternoon 2 higher-end sales were reported in the MLS;

4911 N Avenida De Vizcaya, listed on January 2nd for $1,200,000 went to contract that same day and closed yesterday for $1,050,000 – in Hacienda del Sol Estates. Ha! Way to go,

and 5980 E Terra Grande in Finisterra, listed on Jan 6 for $1,625,000, went to contract on Jan 12 and closed yesterday for $1,625,000. Two buyers who knew what they wanted and did what they needed to do to get it. Both listed by Long Realty.

These homes that went to contract at the very beginning  of the year are part and parcel of why I was so gung-ho about the market in early January. But unfortunately it didn’t last. But also, as I mentioned yesterday, there were two contracts this week in Pima Canyon and today there’s a 3rd, and it's a biggie. So maybe the upper end market is waking up. Or it is in PC anyway.

2102 E Desert Garden Drive, first listed in Feb 2010 at $4,199,000 and reduced and reduced again, went to contract today listed at $2,849,000 ($534/sf). Even in good times contracts at $2.8 are pretty scarce.

2102 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

back in the dark days of 2011 I mentioned 2102 Desert Garden > does anyone really expect to see record breaking sale prices anytime soon in the foothills

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

a one horse town

Tucson's Ryan Airfield faces closure of its contract air-traffic control tower in early April unless it can make a good case to regulators that keeping it open is in the national interest.

The Tucson Airport Authority has received a letter from federal regulators saying Ryan is among 189 smaller airports that face closure of their contract air-traffic control towers due to looming sequestration cuts.

From the Arizona Daily Star

Tower at Tucson's Ryan Airfield closer to shutdown

Local aviation officials have said that closing Ryan would jeopardize safety, noting that Ryan is a valuable reliever to Tucson International Airport and features advanced landing-approach technology. Without a tower, pilots will have to coordinate takeoffs and landings themselves via radio and visual contact.

And besides, having to actually drive to Fashion Square , what fun is that.

 

when you’re hot you’re hot

While the rest of the high-end market in the foothills continues to struggle along, Pima Canyon seems almost immune to those troubles.

There are 6 homes listed at $1mil or more in PC – average list price $1,662,167

2 in contract – one went to contract Monday and another today - average list price $1,025,000

3 listed at $1mil or more have sold since the 1st of the year – average sold price $1,228,333

for a nice lean 6 months inventory.

Compare that to the $1mil+ market in the rest of the foothills – (not including  PC) 

83 for sale - average list price $1,870,405

7 in contract – average list price $1,347,143

3 sold since the 1st of the year – average sold price $1,341,667

for a rather bloated 55 months inventory.

And more times than not PC is hot, even when the rest of the market is not. Because buyers like Pima Canyon, it’s as simple as that.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

looking for a good rental house for 3 years

Recently I was contacted by a pilot with the Royal Netherlands Air Force  who will be the commanding officer of the Dutch F-16 flight training at the Tucson ANG for the coming 3 years, starting this July.

He wrote; “My wife and I will come and live in Tucson with our 4 boys (age 11, 10, 7 and 6), 2 dogs (child-friendly and well-behaved) and 2 cats.  We are looking for an unfurnished house to rent in the vicinity of Dodge & River Rd.(preferably within a 15 minutes driving distance)”

They’re looking for a 4 bedroom house with a large living room or family room, probably 3 baths or more, tiled or wood floors, no carpet, an enclosed yard, preferably with a pool, in a kid friendly neighborhood that is close to a park or other open area for recreation. Up to a maximum $2800/month with a 3 year lease.

If you have something that you think may work, or know someone who does, please send me the details and I’ll forward it to them. 

Officer Jones (not his real name) will be in Tucson from April 24th thru May 2nd to see the available homes. Thank you.

PS- I don’t do rentals and I’m not looking for a fee or commission of any kind, and I won’t be involved beyond trying to help them find a good house to rent.

finally, a contract in the high $8’s

6251 E Placita Aspecto, listed at $899,000 is reported in contract today after 367 days on the market.

The is first contract since January 29th on a house listed from $826,000 to $999,000 – and there are 39 for sale in that range.

6251 E Placita Aspecto Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

it ain’t over yet, but here’s the weekend’s haul so far

7 contracts, from $156,000  to $475,000.

Late Breaking- 1963 E Quiet Canyon Drive squeaked in just under the wire. Listed for $1,050,000 ($290/sf) it went to contract today after a mere 84 days.

 

February home sales in the Tucson Foothills

Sales have been boringly consistent (and low) since October – with the wildest swings going from 56 to 59 homes sold/month. So let’s hope we follow last year’s pattern and see a big jump in the action in March and April … There are 128 homes in contract, so you’d think at least half of them would/could/should close in March.

 

And sale prices have also followed a pattern for the last 12 months – a pattern of going up one month and down the next – so who knows. But average sold prices for this Jan & Feb are down substantially from last Jan & Feb. And from April & May & July …

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

more fallout from the boom

6161 N Canon Del Pajaro sold for $705,000 in 1999 and sold again for $1,040,000 in 2006.

Then last October it was listed as a short sale for $895,000, but that didn’t do it, so it was reduced to $659,000 and is now in contract. This is the 2nd short sale contract on this house – the 1st was in January, but was short-lived.

6161 N Canon Del Pajaro Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

dream on home sellers

Bidding wars. Buyers paying cash. Homes selling for more than asking price. Are we entering another housing bubble? No. But prospective buyers in many markets may be shocked at the competitive nature of the home-buying process these days.

From WSJ.com
For Many, 2013 Will Be the Year to Finally Buy a Home

The number of homes for sale fell to a 13-year low in January, leaving would-be buyers chasing a shrinking supply of homes just before the spring selling season.

"It's not that the prices are crazy, but the buyers outnumber the available homes for sale."

There was an average of 4.8 months of supply of existing homes for sale in the fourth quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors (that is, it would take 4.8 months to sell off the inventory at the current pace). Six months' supply is closer to normal, says Celia Chen, a housing economist with Moody's Analytics, an economic research firm. In 2010, it went as high as 10 months. "Prices are starting to rise as a result of the strong demand relative to low supplies," says Ms. Chen.

Why they even single out Arizona, along with DC, as having the highest jump in the price index.

Ah, not here in the Foothills I’m afraid. At least not if you’re talking about anything priced more than about $500,000 – of which there are 218 for sale, that’s 56% of the homes for sale – or the occasional bargain priced distress sale. But if you can suspend disbelief for 5 minutes it’s an amusing fairytale.

Click Market Snapshot up at the top of the page for a quick peek at the current foothills market. However, in the past, the foothills market has trailed other larger markets – NY, LA, SF, and even Phoenix – by 3 to 6 months on both the up and downside. So maybe we’re on the cusp of a big turnaround and just don’t see it yet. I wouldn’t rule it out. 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

starting off March with a whimper

it was another ho-hum day for Tucson Foothills real estate,

5 new listings, priced from $325,000 to $1,295,000

5 price cuts, from $225,000 to $1,590,000

just 1 little contract at $300,000

and 5 lucky sellers sold their homes today from $170,300 to $576,000

blah!

new listings and price cuts are just grand. But contracts are where the action is, and with none or hardly any similarly priced homes going to contract it just adds up to more inventory sitting around and gathering dust.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home

to lucky buyer # 17

4335 N Camino Kino, which I’d written about when it was listed in January, was a foreclosure listed at $574,900 that sold the other day for $651,500. It last sold in 05 for $987,731

In that January post I said I’ll be very surprised if this doesn’t go for over list.
Zillow thought so too, but were pretty wide of the mark, having zestimated it at $819,977

4335 N Camino Kino Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home