The Catalina Foothills

make that 4 June contracts at $1.0m+

Getting in just under the wire, 5348 N Via Alcalde is reported in contract today at a $1,085,000 list price, the 4th $1.0m+ contract for June.

Which I should have expected, since yesterday I said -  So still just 3 contracts at $1,000,000+ for June with the last one going to contract on June 11th - and 77 still for sale.

OK, well, every little bit counts, now there are just 76 for sale.

Also worth noting again, because I’ll bet with all the brouhaha about how great the real estate market is doing, that it's been lost on some sellers, and possibly buyers too, that the market above $1,000,000 in the Tucson Foothills is not doing so great and has not improved since last year. In fact, it’s not even doing as well as it did last year.

Last year from Jan 1 to June 26th 27 homes sold for $1.0m+. This year we’ve had 22 sales at $1.0m+. And average/median sale prices haven’t improved either;
$1,332,684/$1,262,500 last year – $1,322,227/$1,217,500 this year – prices are actually down a skosh.

5348 N Via Alcalde Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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how’s the real estate activity holding up in this xtreme heat

Since Monday there’ve been;

18 new listings priced from $279,000 to $1,895,000

16 new contracts priced from $224,900 to $497,000

24 sales from $243,000 to $900,000 (sales are deals that were made weeks or months ago)

10 sellers who threw in the towel, at least for now, and canceled listings priced from $204,900 to $1,195,000

So nothing to contract above 497,000, and while listings priced at $1.0+ didn’t make a showing in either contracts or sales there were 2 new listings and 3 cancellations in that upper range. So still just 3 contracts at $1,000,000+ for June with the last one going to contract on June 11th - and 77 still for sale.

Actually, if you can take the heat, it is a good time to buy - zig when others zag. There are fewer buyers, so less competition, and sellers, particularly at the upper-end, who may be getting antsy for a showing and even antsier for an offer, may be more receptive to making a deal.

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finally, sold in Foothills ll

3600 E Windy Point Drive sold for $1,100,000 in 2004 (I was the listing agent) and it was listed again in 2010 for $1,390,000 (I was Not the listing agent), at which time I mentioned it on this blog. And after providing a flattering opinion of the house and setting I did offer that $1,390,000 was, in my opinion, an optimistic price. And that didn’t go over too well in some quarters but, c'est la vie, it sold today, 3 years and many price cuts later, for $900,000.

3600 E Windy Point Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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got a leaky pipe

I did, an offshoot of the main underground line had sprung a leak two years ago and then again last week. So it was time to replace that pipe, a messy and costly task, but it had to be done.

I called Bert’s Electric and Plumbing, who I’d used before for both electric and plumbing when I did a big kitchen renovation. And they were great then and while they’re not quite finished with this job I have every reason to believe they’ll get it done and done right. They’re real pros.
I recommend them.  Bert's Electric and Plumbing

 

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fewer homes in contract last week, June 17 - 23

From Monday June 17th through Sunday June 23rd 17 single family homes went to contract
in the Tucson Foothills.

15 are priced from $170,000 to $584,900
then 1 at $775,000 and 1 at $850,000
and nothing higher

This is the first time since late Feb to early March that the number of contracts has dropped into the teens. But what can you do, at 106° in the shade there are bound to be fewer buyers, and fewer still at the upper-end.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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throw it against the wall and see if it sticks

uh, it didn’t.

6220 N Camino Esquina, in Skyline Bel Air, was listed at the very beginning of this year for $1,100,000 and expired today at $1,100,000. No takers. And no surprise either.
Skyline Bel Air is, well, let’s get to it and say what Skyline Bel Air is not.
It is not a community of $1,100,000 homes, not even of $900,000 homes and not even $800,000 homes or $700,000 homes …

Since 2009 there’ve been 85 sales in SB and 83 of them were at $552,500 or less with 2 high rollers at $614,000 and $675,000.

and coincidentally, just yesterday I was falling all over myself about Skyline Bel Air. And it’s all true too, just not at $1.1.

6220 N Camino Esquina N , Tucson, AZ 85718
(previously listed by Long Realty)

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they are flying off the shelf in Skyline Bel Air

14 homes have sold so far this year at an average/median sale price of $423,715/$407,500.
And they sold for 97.2% of list price in an average of 47 days on market, while the median days on market is just 13. Indicating that half of those 14 sales sold in less than 13 days. Unquestionably, the market in SB is going gangbusters.

So if you’re trying to sell in Skyline Bel Air, and not getting any results, you can be sure of one thing, it’s not the market that’s holding you back.

For the same period last year there were 8 sales at an average/median of $363,125/$362,500.
And they sold for 95.7% of list price in an average of 67 days on market, while the median days on market was 54. Not bad, but no comparison to what’s happening now.

I always thought Skyline Bel Air was ripe for investment and renovation. Great location, location, older- 60’s & 70’s - masonry built  homes on acre lots with very good mountain and city views. And while owners/investors did start putting money into Skyline Bel Air during the boom, the bust choked it off before it really got going. So maybe this is it, Skyline Bel Air’s 2nd chance to realize what I think is its very good potential. 

also > the next hot-spot for fixer uppers in the Tucson Foothills

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good advice for sellers and buyers

Real estate Miranda warning: Zip your lip
from latimes.com

Sellers talk too much. And when they do, they often talk themselves out of a lot of money. So, sellers: Keep your mouth shut and allow your agent to serve as your mouthpiece.

It's not that you are trying to hide something from would-be buyers. With today's disclosure laws, everything materially wrong with a home is going to be revealed to the other side anyway. If it's not, you're asking for trouble.

At the same time, though, if you ramble on with a prospect or even his agent, chances are you will give up some information that the other side can use to gain a negotiating advantage.

The message should be clear: Take a vow of silence, even with other real estate agents. After all, speaking with them is just like speaking to the buyer. "Being silent is the best negotiation skill one can have," Mike Yeo of 3:16 Team Realty in Frisco, Texas, advised in one ActiveRain discussion. "Just shut up!"

Buyers frequently run at the mouth too, and the information they spill — like how high they can go — is just as damaging to their cause. "A $10 muzzle would have saved them $15,000," commented Doug Rogers of Century 21 Millennium in Pineville, La., of past clients.

"I have to admit: As a listing agent, I've been on the receiving end of buyers talking too much," said Mel Peterson of the Real Estate Cafe in Grants Pass, Ore. "It was quite helpful when we went into a counter situation and I was able to share with my sellers how badly the buyers wanted their home."

So buyers, too, should take a vow of silence. "Buyers are meant to be seen, not heard, especially when viewing a house," said Gary Waters of Century 21 Baytree Realty in Rockledge, Fla. "They need to share between themselves and their agent, not the seller's agent."
__________________________________________________________________________

This may seem too simple and obvious for words, but it happens, you get in a conversation with the seller or buyer or the other agent and without realizing it you start spilling the beans.
Or worse yet, you get in a conversation with the other party and soon discover that you don’t like them, or they don’t like you.That’s tough to put aside and can put an indelible crimp in the negotiations. Sellers should not be present when their homes are being shown.

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another quick sale in Pima Canyon

After selling in 08 at $1,160,000, 7593 N Mystic Canyon Drive was listed this February for $950,000, quickly dropped to $925,000, and closed yesterday for $910,000 ($282/sf) – 75 days from listing to contract.

This makes it 13 sales this year in PC, and there’s 1 in contract and 7 for sale, for an
enviable 3 and smidge, months of inventory.

7593 N Mystic Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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just when things were going so nicely, now this, will rising rates derail the housing recovery

 

Wells Fargo & Co., the largest U.S. mortgage lender, is offering 30-year fixed-rate loans at 4.5 percent, according to its website, up from 4.13 percent on June 18 and 3.88 percent on May 22

2 points of view;

From Fortune.CNN.com
By Nin-Hai Tseng

3 reasons why higher mortgage rates won't slow the housing recovery

And from Zero Hedge
by Tyler Durden

What The Recent Surge In Rates Means For Your Home Purchasing Power

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in contract last week, June 10 - 16

From Monday June 10th through Sunday June 16th 22 single family homes went to contract
in the Tucson Foothills.

16 were priced from $245,000 to $599,000
5 were from $745,000 to $998,000
and 1 at $1,250,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

Things continue to look very good up to about1$million, but it drops off pretty steeply from there. The $1.250 contract makes it just 3 contracts at 1$million+ since June 1st. And they’re all huddled at the lower end of 1$mil+, from $1,034,999 to $1,250,000. That’s it, nothing higher. At this rate we’ll barely make a dent in the 80 homes listed for sale from $1.0mil to $9,990,000. And being as we are in the thick of a long hot summer “this rate” is not likely to pick up much.

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6 down, none to go

In Pinnacle Ridge 4390 E Pinnacle Ridge Place went to contract today listed at $850,000.
It took a bit longer to find a buyer than the 5 other deals that went down in there this year, but it’s a little larger and more expensive than the others. And a 2 story too. But still, 39 days is not too shabby, see  no dilly-dallying in Pinnacle Ridge . So that’s it, once again there’s nothing for sale in Pinnacle Ridge, but I’ll bet there are half a dozen buyers waiting and hoping for the right house to come along.

4390 E Pinnacle Ridge Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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another 2 day deal

5230 E Camino Bosque was listed on 5/25 for $618,000, went to contract on 5/27 and closed today for $614,000 – in Skyline Belair. And it sold in August 2010 for $569,000 – when selling prices were even a tad higher than now - same house, same upgrades, but a very different market.

5230 E Camino Bosque , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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"Life's Better When We're Connected."

The question is, Better for who. Bank of America, whose latest ad theme is the aforementioned “Life’s Better When.., may have really stepped in it this time.

From CNBC.com;
By: John W. Schoen | Economics Reporter

Bank of America routinely denied qualified borrowers a chance to modify their loans to more affordable terms and paid cash bonuses to bank staffers for pushing homeowners into foreclosure, according to affidavits filed last week in a Massachusetts lawsuit.

"We were told to lie to customers," said Simone Gordon, who worked in the bank's loss mitigation department until February 2012. "Site leaders regularly told us that the more we delayed the HAMP [loan] modification process, the more fees Bank of America would collect."

In sworn testimony, six former employees describe what they saw behind the scenes of an often opaque process that has frustrated homeowners, their attorneys and housing counselors.

They describe systematic efforts to undermine the program by routinely denying loan modifications to qualified applicants, withholding reviews of completed applications, steering applicants to costlier "in-house" loans and paying bonuses to employees based on the number of new foreclosures they initiated.

Bank of America denied the allegations in the affidavits, which were filed in a Massachusetts lawsuit on behalf of dozens of BofA borrowers in 26 states.

"We continue to demonstrate our commitment to assisting customers who are at risk of foreclosure and, at best, these attorneys are painting a false picture of the bank's practices and the dedication of our employees," a spokesman said in a statement. "While we will address the declarations in more depth when we file our opposition to plaintiffs' motion next month, suffice it is to say that each of the declarations is rife with factual inaccuracies."

In their sworn testimony, the former Bank of America employees detail a series of specific company policies designed to provide as little foreclosure relief as possible.

"Based on what I observed, Bank of America was trying to prevent as many homeowners as possible from obtaining permanent HAMP loan modifications while leading the public and the government to believe that it was making efforts to comply with HAMP," said Theresa Terrelonge, a Bank of America collector until June 2010. "It was well known among managers and many employees that the overriding goal was to extend as few HAMP loan modifications to homeowners as possible."

Even for bankers this seems almost too uncaring, crude and criminal to be true, almost.
read all about it
Bank of America Paid Bonuses to Foreclose: Lawsuit

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we’re not in a rush to sell

If you’re a listing agent you hear a lot of that. Well, after 2 years, 3 listing agents and scads of teeny little price cuts, 5521 N Via Girasol sold yesterday for 69% of its starting price.

It started in May 2011 at $599,000 and sold for $413,500 from a $429,500 list, the last in a very long line of list prices.

5521 N Via Girasol Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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still looking for a good rental

Back in March I wrote about a pilot with the Royal Netherlands Air Force,  who will be the commanding officer of the Dutch F-16 flight training at the Tucson ANG, who is looking for an unfurnished rental house for him and his family for the coming 3 years for up to $2800/month, to begin in July. They’re still looking and July is right around the corner.

the details of their preferences for location, bedrooms, amenities, etc. are HERE

If you have something that you think may work, or know someone who does, please send me the information and I will forward it to them.

PS- I don’t do rentals and I’m not looking for a fee or commission of any kind, and I won’t be involved beyond trying to help them find a good house to rent.

Thank you,

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getting ahead of the pack in Ventana

6423 N Desert Wind Circle closed yesterday for $955,000 ($232/sf). And thanks to a couple of quick and sizeable price cuts it went relatively quickly.

Listed in January for $1,295,000 it dropped to $1,150,000 in Feb and dropped again in April to $995,000 and that did it, it went to contract two weeks later. 

I assume they were aware that the higher-end market in Ventana has not been breaking any sales records this year, so they did what they had to do to get ahead of the pack and sell.

6423 N Desert Wind Circle Tucson, AZ 85750
(Listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty 472203)

Including Desert Wind there’ve been 4 sales this year at $900 or more in Ventana  – $900, $955, $980 and $1.375m.

Yet there are 12 for sale from $959k to $5.595m.

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one lucky buyer got it and I’ll bet there 6 others wishing they woulda, coulda, shoulda

1940 E Calle La Brinca made its first appearance in the MLS on Friday at $575,000 and today it’s in contract.

I can’t imagine why,

See for yourself
1940 E Calle La Brinca , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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U.S. home builders reported the best conditions in the housing market since the mid-2000s boom

From WSJ.com
By ERIC MORATH And JOSH MITCHELL

The National Association of Home Builders, an industry trade group, said Monday that its housing-market index leapt to a reading of 52 in June, up by eight points from May. The jump was the biggest since the summer 2002.

The reading marked the first time since April 2006 that the index registered a reading over 50, which indicates most home builders view sales conditions as good rather than poor. The reading was far above economists' expectations of a 45-point measure for June. The index was based on a survey of 255 builders in June.

"Surpassing this important benchmark reflects the fact that builders are seeing better market conditions as demand for new homes increases," said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder and developer from Charlotte, N.C. "With the low inventory of existing homes, an increasing number of buyers are gravitating toward new homes.

Home Builders' Outlook Turns 'Good' for First Time Since '06
____________________________________________________________________

Here in the Catalina Foothills, where many builders got burned during the boom & bust, and who didn’t, most builders appear to be tip-toeing very carefully back into the market. Of the 9 new construction listings in the MLS only 3 of them are spec homes that are actually built or in the process of being built. The others are to-be-built, that is, once a buyer comes along and signs a contract and puts down a deposit. And not until. Also, back in the boom days of the spec home frenzy you never saw a spec listed for less than 1$million, and most were at $1,500,000 and up, and some way up. Today 4 of the 9 listings are at $635, $725, $759 and $995.

And I see that La Quinta is building again along Campbell Ave behind the iron gate just north of Calle La Vela. This is on the 10 acres they acquired in the 2002 purchase, for $1,450,000, of a Joesler estate which they then renovated and sold for $1,550,000 in 2004, but with just 2.4 acres. Meanwhile La Quinta carved out 4 additional building lots from the remaining 7.6 acres.

A good bet and good timing on La Quinta’s part. With the country still reeling from 9/11 and the stock market crash, the high-end market here was dead in 2002. But by 2004 happy days were here again. (and by 2007, when that same Joesler sold again for $2.2m, they were downright giddy – but the end was near)

And La Quinta didn’t get off scot-free either. By the time they got two of their very high-end spec homes in the ground the boom had become the bust and when they finally did sell they sold for steep discounts.

The blue outline is the original 10 acre parcel with the Joesler in the upper left and the 4 lots that were split, two of them with La Quinta spec homes.
One sold in 09 for $1,232,000 after starting in 08 at $1,685,000, the other for $1,600,000 in 2010 after starting in 07 at $2,695,000. And La Quinta’s are beautifully designed, all masonry construction with the very best materials and craftsmanship – a level of quality that is rarely seen.

 

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no dilly-dallying in Pinnacle Ridge

6194 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive was listed on 5/2 for $746,500, went to contract on 5/4 and closed today for $747,000 ($211/sf). Not quite a bidding war, just a little skirmish.

6194 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

When the year started there was nothing for sale in PR and there hadn’t been since last summer. Then little by little 6 homes were listed this year and 5 of them went to contract in
1, 2, 11 and 21 days and they’re all sold. And there’s one still in contract which took 30 days to find a buyer and there’s 1 for sale, 35 days and counting.

In March 2011 I wrote  Pinnacle Ridge is waking up . And how!

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June is turning out to be an unusually hot month, and for contracts too

5750 E Placita Varas in Alta Vista sold in 07 for $1,100,000 and was listed in early April for $989,000 and is in contract today. (listed by The Lee Group (3700))

4840 N Hacienda Del Sol sold for $780,000 in 04, for $987,000 in 08, and went to contract today listed at $879,000. (listed by Long Realty).

And 5140 N Apache Hills Trail, on the market for $399,985 since August 2011, went contract today listed at $399,985. (listed by Long Realty)

3 to Contract

106° and no letup  49 contracts since June 1

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in contract last week

From Monday June 3rd through Sunday June 9th 26 single family homes went to contract
in the Tucson Foothills.

21 are priced $105,000 to $599,000
4 are $634,000 to $850,000
1 at $1,195,000 (breaking the standoff at $1.0+)

a very respectable showing given how HOT (temperature) it’s been.

The previous week’s numbers are HERE

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talk about homes that have been on the market forever, and with no recent and appreciable price cuts, suddenly going to contract

Take 2232 E Quiet Canyon Drive in Pima Canyon, for example. It’s been on the market since April 2011, when it started at $997,000 and by August 2012 it had dropped to $850, but it wasn’t until this April 26th that it went to contract, still at $850, and closed today for $845,000. 

2232 E Quiet Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty, LLC 286607)

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5 signs you’re in a hot market

Aside from homes selling faster and for more money there are other less obvious or measureable signs you’re in a hot market.

1. after languishing for months or years, homes by the side of the road and on other less-than-desirable lots, are suddenly going to contract.

2. homes that have been on the market forever, and with no recent and appreciable price cuts, are suddenly going to contract.

3. some homes are being listed at or close to what they sold for in 2005 – 2009, and some of them are going to contract. 

4. the biggest and most expensive homes on the block, spec homes built during the boom in communities of much lesser priced homes, are suddenly going to contract.

5. Ditto for the ugliest house on the block.

Having seen this occur in spades during the boom, and the resulting fallout during the bust,
I thought well, those days are over. Well, guess what, they’re not.

I’m sure there are other signs I haven’t observed. ??

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in contract

6580 N Regal Manor Drive, listed 33 days ago for  $998,000 is in contract - it last sold in 2010 for $945,000.
6580 N Regal Manor Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

4425 N Hacienda Del Sol Road, listed in February at $1,397,000, now at $1,250,000, has also found a buyer.
4425 N Hacienda Del Sol Road , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

2976 E Manzanita Ridge Place on the market 50 days is in contract listed at $599,000.
2976 E Manzanita Ridge Place , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

and, bingo!, 6931 N Montezuma Drive, which I mentioned 3 days ago when it was listed at $825,000, is also in contract.
6931 N Montezuma Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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still more fallout from the boom

6831 N Skyway Drive, mentioned (all too) often on this blog went to contract today listed as a foreclosure for $830,000. In a nutshell, it’s a spec house that started out in 08, September 8, 08 to be exact, ugh, listed at $1.4mil in Vista De Las Candelas, a lovely community where, going all the way back to 2005, the average sale price is in the $400’s. And, no surprise, it’s been at it ever since. That was the ‘thinking’ during the boom, just build it and they will come. But very few did. 

And by the way it’s been listed as a foreclosure for 2 months now so I don’t imagine there was much of a bidding war.

For the gory details click HERE & HERE

6831 N Skyway Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Prudential Arizona Properties 356307)

 

 

I think it’s safe to say we’ve passed the bottom

Looking at recent list and sold data for single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, everything is in positive territory vs. last year. Here are the numbers for homes sold during the period of March 1 thru June 10, last year and this year.

	2012	2013	the score
# homes sold	258	277	7.3%
avg list $$	$484,660	$497,645	2.7%
med list $$	$379,000	$425,000	12%
avg sold $$	$454,172	$475,939	4.8%
med sold $$	$361,500	$412,000	14%
% avg SP/LP	93.7%	95.6%	1.9%
% med SP/LP	95.4%	96.9%	1.5%
DOM	120	88	- 26%

So more homes are selling, they’re selling faster, they’re being listed and sold for more $$,
and they’re selling closer to list price than they were last year. What more could we ask for.

It’s not the buying frenzy and frothy prices they’re seeing in LA, SF and thereabouts, but that’s probably a good thing.

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asked $495,000, got $495,000

in 3 days in Cimarron, ($207/sf)

5680 E Paseo Cimarron Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by The Nordstrom Group, Inc 1720)

next up  is 5559 E Paseo Bueno in Finisterra. which went to contract today, it’s 3rd day on the market, listed at $499,000. (listed by Long Realty)

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real estate is local

According to the drumbeat of news reports  “the number of homes for sale is at historically low levels”. And that may well be in LA, SF, Miami, Phoenix and elsewhere, which is of course contributing to the buying frenzy we’re also hearing so much about.

But in the Tucson Foothills there are actually more single family homes for sale this year than last year. Today there are 370 for sale, 23% more than at this time last year.

But a new report in the Wall Street Journal indicates that rising prices and quicker sales may be inducing more sellers to list their homes, thereby increasing inventory levels. 
Ha!, just like here in the foothills.

“A market in which the sale prices are happening very close to the list prices, a market in which the list prices seem to be moving sequentially higher, and a market in which any of those houses are selling speedily is one that is bringing sellers back,” he said. “That makes it feel to a seller that this isn’t going to be a long passive despair that I tried three years ago.”

WSJ.com
By Nick Timiraos

Why More Sellers Could Test the Market

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here we go again

Bidding wars sound almost quaint. These days, the only way for would-be buyers to secure a home, it often seems, is to offer all cash and be ready to do so within hours, not days.

The bursting of last decade’s housing bubble feels like ancient history here, where first-time home buyers are competing with investors to get into single-family homes with prices approaching $1 million.

The percentage of homes bought with cash has shot up in many markets across the nation. Nearly a third of all homes purchased in Los Angeles during the first quarter of this year went for all cash, compared with just 7 percent in 2007. In Miami, 65 percent of homes sold were for cash deals, compared with 16 percent six years ago.

More California homes have been flipped in the last year than in any year since 2005.

And while Los Angeles may be a center of the frenzy, it is not an anomaly. Buyers in Boston are offering $100,000 more than the asking price or placing offers on homes they have spent only minutes in. In San Francisco, Miami and Phoenix, sellers are looking at dozens of offers within days of putting their home on the market, often accompanied by letters from would-be buyers professing their love for the property. New York City has seen similar drops in inventory, and prices have been rising steadily since 2009.

Shortly after Andres Alvarez, 36, got married last fall, he began to look for a home with his wife, figuring that their steady jobs, savings and good credit would make them the perfect buyers in Los Angeles. They were ready to spend $700,000. Their optimism deflated quickly.

“We thought we were the cream of the crop, but anything that was in our price range and move-in ready, there was this insane competition,” Mr. Alvarez said. They put in nearly a dozen bids, often losing to cash buyers, before finding a two-bedroom home for $650,000. “It might be a great time to buy, but it’s a horrible time to be a buyer,” he said.

Dick and Susan Yost can vouch for that. They wanted to downsize while leaving their home in Cambridge, Mass., to their son and his family. “We bid on eight places before we finally got one,” Mr. Yost said. “The worst we bid was $85,000 over the asking price, and we didn’t get it.”

Even unappealing homes, he said, had “people all over them.”

From The New York Times

By JENNIFER MEDINA and KATHARINE Q. SEELYE
Published: June 8, 2013

As Home Sales Heat Up Again, Buyers Must Resort to Cold Cash

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months of inventory

I just updated the Market Snapshot  figures (which was sorely overdue) and for the first time in forever the $1,000,000 to $1,499,999 price range is down to 6 months of inventory – and according conventional wisdom 6 months is considered a normal balanced market. In mid April it was at 13 MOI, by mid May it had been whittled down to 10 months and now, voila, it’s at 6. On the flip side, though, there are just 2 homes in contract in that price range, so unless we start seeing some new contracts real soon the MOI will begin to creep up again as we drift past the 30 day mark for the latest sales.

And $600,00 to $999,999 is also at an all-time low for the year, at 5.4 months. Two months ago it was just under 11 MOI. And of course $0 to $599,999 continues to blow the doors off everything.

So up to $1.5m everything is honky-dory, according to the latest numbers anyway, but above that it’s still a no man’s land.

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106° in the shade

and in just the last 3 days 12 single family homes have gone to contract in the Foothills – and all but one are priced from $145,000 to $499,000. (plus the Jim Gray house at $749)
Some are new listings, on the market just a few days, but others, that have been hanging around for months now, are also being scooped up.

12 to contract

Talk about a HOT market - at $0 to $499,000 there are 156 for sale, 107 in contract and 58 sold in the last 30 days. Which works out to a measly 2.7 months of inventory.

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it couldn’t last

listed on Wednesday afternoon 6620 N Catalina Avenue in Coronado Foothills Estates looked like a winner in the MLS, so with a couple of clients in mind I went to see it and found that it was even nicer in person. Much nicer, and as you know it’s often just the opposite.

It had it all, a beautiful mountain view lot, very attractive house with a comfortable, easy floor plan, beautifully updated and meticulously maintained and with a sweet as can be guest house. For $497,000. Homes as nice as this, and as well priced, just don’t come along very often.

And after multiple offers it’s in contract today.

6620 N Catalina Avenue Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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where are the million dollar homes selling

and not selling.
25 homes listed at $1 million and UP have sold so far this year in the Tucson Foothills
(21 sold for a million or more, 4 for under a million).

Here’s where it all happened along with the number of million dollar homes still for sale.

Community	# sold	# for sale
Cobo Catalina Hills	0	2
Pima Canyon	8	6
Cobblestone	3	2
La Vista Encantada	1	0
Catalina Foothills Estates	0	9
La Paloma	1	1
Canyons	0	5
Skyline CC	0	7
Hacienda del Sol	2	1
Catalina Foothills Est 10	0	4
La Puerta	2	1
Foothills ll	0	3
Alta Vista	1	3
Finisterra	3	3
Bellas Catalinas	1	0
Sabino Mountain	1	1
Ventana CC	2	11
	25 sold	59 for sale

Once again PC takes the cake with more than twice as many big buck sales as anywhere else in the foothills – or 32% of all million dollar sales this year.

And there are another 25 homes listed at a million and UP scattered here and there throughout the foothills, in locales that had no million dollar sales this year.

and PS – for the same period last year there were 29 sales of homes listed at a million or more. This drop in sales is limited to the million+ market in the Tucson Foothills. Homes listed below a million are selling more than last year.

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an elegant Spanish Colonial

6931 N Montezuma Drive hit the market late yesterday at $825,000 ($249/sf). And something tells me it’ll be gone pretty quick, so if this is what you’ve been waiting for you may want to move on it ASAP.

6931 N Montezuma Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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a colorful sale in cat 9

Designed and built by David Tyson in 1989, 6561 N Avenida De Posada sold today for $682,080 ($221/sf) from a $699,000 list price. It last sold in 2007 for $680,000 and being a Tyson fan I remember it well, though it was a pretty shabby back then. But it was cleaned up nicely and had a new kitchen and some other remodeling.

6561 N Avenida De Posada Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage 70202)

And all those colors are not Tyson’s doing, no, he was much more restrained and subtle with color. That’s the owners personal taste, and so be it. But with far-out color schemes like that I always think it’s worthwhile for them to spend a few bucks and have it all painted white, for the sake of the sale. But they didn’t and still did well.

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big house, no yard work

6520 N Calle De La Lluvia, 4260 sf on a .24 acre lot, went on the market today at $999,000.

When it last sold in 2011, for $925,000, in to each his own, I noted, Calle de LLuvia is in that tiny northeast section of Alta Vista that is zoned CR-4, allowing multiple homes/acre – rather than the majority of Alta Vista that’s zoned CR-1.

6520 N Calle De La Lluvia Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizo 478306)

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in contract last week

From Monday May 27th through Sunday June 2nd 21 single family homes went to contract
in the Tucson Foothills.

17 were priced $145,000 to $599,000
4 from $618,000 to $839,000
0 from $1,000,000 & up

fewer contracts overall and still nothing at $1.0+.

The previous week’s numbers are HERE

Stay cool!

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3 days

a 2003 built mud adobe by Jim Gray went on the market a few days ago at $749,000 ($311/sf) and is in contract today.

And they’re so special and so rarely available that it’s not surprising.

3035 E Placita Los Siete Adobes Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

If you’re looking, there is one other Jim Gray house for sale in the foothills, listed in mid May at 1,195,000.

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cutting prices in the Mountain Estates

Last month I wrote about 6603 N Eagle Ridge Drive, which sold for $1,375,000 ($277/sf), the lowest $$/sf sale in the ME since 2002*. That was after dropping from its debut price of $1,899,000 to $1,495,000.

And now its neighbor at 6600 N Eagle Ridge Drive has done it one better dropping from $2,675,000 to $2,250,000 ($264/sf). And that’s the asking price. Assuming there’s a bit of room for negotiation it would take the crown as the lowest $$/sf sale in the ME since 2000* and, depending on the final price, maybe even back to the late 90’s.

6600 N Eagle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

As I wrote recently, … back in the day it was commonplace for homes to sell in the high $300’s and well into the $400’s/sf, and a few in the $500’s, in the Mountain estates.

Will we see those numbers again, who can say. But $264/sf for a prime 3 acre ridge top lot and an 8500 sf house to go with it, looks like a pretty good starting point. The average $$/sf for the 26 sales since Jan 2000 is $370/sf.

*There was one sale of a smaller home with very limited views in 2005, an estate sale, at $212/sf.

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May home sales in the Tucson Foothills

With 89 single family homes sold, May was another very good month for home sales in the Tucson Foothills. Just one less than April and head and shoulders above every other month in years. See the April report HERE

And prices made a very respectable, if not spectacular, showing. With both average and median sale prices turning in their 2nd highest numbers for this year.

 

And let’s see where we stand for January thru May, this year and last.

2012 – 350 sales @ $461,897/$360,000

2013 – 380 sales @ $467,016/$386,250

So sales are up 8.5% and prices are up 1% average and 7.3% median. At least they’re headed in the right direction, albeit ever so slowly.

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well well well

1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, the foreclosure in Pima Canyon that I’ve written about umpteen times closed today for $1,100,000 from a $1,075,000 list price.

When it went to contract I said,
A long awaited foreclosure in Pima Canyon showed up today as under contract just 1 minute after it showed up as a new listing. A done deal before it hit the market. And given that it sold for $2,900,000 in 06 – albeit, an astonishingly overpriced sale -  and was listed today for $1,075,000, I can’t help wondering if the lender, Capital One according to the tax records, got the highest and best price for this property.

Usually in a case like this, where the house is listed at a bargain price, the lender will stipulate that offers won’t be reviewed until day 7 of the listing. They do that to stimulate a little bidding war and make sure they do get the highest and best price. So I have to assume that Capital One was more interested in getting it over with quickly than in pursuing the bidding war thing. But I wonder why.

Well, who knows. But the listing broker did well, they represented the buyers as well as the bank.

1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Catalina Realty 2100)

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2005 prices in Pima Canyon?

We’ll see.
2434 E Long Shadow Place, listed one year ago at $1,350,000 – after selling in 05 for $1,200,000 - recently dropped to $1,195,000 and, bingo!, it’s in contract.

2434 E Long Shadow Place  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizo 478306)

The score in PC;
6 for sale
10 sold since Jan 1
= a tight 3 month supply of homes,
+ 4 in contract

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taking the long way home

3 years, 3 listing agents and, finally, the right price and 5441 E Gleneagles Drive went to contract last week listed at $995,000 after starting out in 2010 at $1,495,000.

5441 E Gleneagles Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

One of these days we’ll see the last of the huge hangover of overpriced homes from the boom, and the boom inspired mindset, that have stubbornly hung on the market for years.
And won’t that be nice.

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on this HOT° day in June

it’s pretty slow and there’s not much to report, so to fill the gap and stir the senses here’s a fascinating look at the yearly rise and fall of average $$/sf sold prices for single family homes in the Tucson Foothills.

As you can see, the rise to the peak in 06 at $240/sf was steep and sure, as was the fall to the trough in 2011 at $159, but since then prices have struggled to reach $163/sf this year.

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just sold

In Pima Canyon, 7562 N Mystic Canyon Drive sold for $950,000 from a $1,050,000 list in 73 DOM.
(listed by Long Realty)

6603 N Eagle Ridge Drive,  mentioned the other day , went for $1,375,000 from a $1,495,000 list in 243 days. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

And the big fish, 3287 E Camino Juan Paisano, sold for $1,750,000 from a $1,995,000 list in just 57 DOM. Mentioned HERE (listed by Long Realty)

Those are nice big sales but with them we’re left with just 3 homes listed at $1.0m & up in contract and dwindling activity in the last few weeks. Yet it’s 101° and there are 84 still for sale.

just sold

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in contract last week

From Monday May 20th through Sunday May 26th 27 single family homes went to contract
in the Tucson Foothills.

20 were priced from $157,000 to $595,000
7 from $649,900 to $995,000
and nothing from $1.0m & up,  Hello Summer

the previous week’s numbers are HERE

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