The Catalina Foothills

another big sale in Finisterra

and relatively quick too.

5900 E Finisterra Drive, listed this past January at $1,895,000, went to contract in September, still asking $1,895,000, and closed today for $1,680,000 ($309/sf). And it’s a new spec home, completed just this year.

This is the 4th big sale this year in #Finisterra, the others sold at $1,400,000, $1,480,000 and $1,625,000 – putting Finisterra in the #2 slot, behind Pima Cyn, for the most high-end sales this year.

 

From planning to completion it had to take at least 2 years and a lot of chutzpah to move forward in 2011 with a $2mil spec build.

5900 E Finisterra Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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all aboard the short sale merry-go-round

5870 N Piedra Seca, built in 2006 and sold in 2006 for $1,200,000 (in 45 days) was listed again in Feb 2012 for $700,000, as a short sale, but, incredibly, it failed to sell.

It was then relisted in March 2013, again as a short sale, but this time for $850,000. And it went to contract 3 times but also fell out 3 times. And who knows why, but I wouldn’t rule out the tendency of lenders to drag their feet for months before making a decision, during which time the buyers are on hold and uncertain of when they’ll hear and what the decision will be.
So after they’ve waited and waited and nothing happens, they cancel. Who wouldn’t.

Then it was listed 12 days ago for $789,000, but this time as a foreclosure, and today it’s in contract. And setting the scene for a bidding war the listing notes; seller will not respond to offers for the first 10 days of the listing in the MLS.

5870 N Piedra Seca Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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the next hot spot for fixer uppers

Writing about Skyline Bel Air a couple of weeks ago I said;

Skyline Bel Air has had nothing short of a stellar year.

21 homes sold this year, with the latest sale at 5960 N Camino Esplendora turning in the highest sale price of the year at $625,000. 
+ 1 in contract and 5 for sale = a very lean 2.25 months of inventory.
The average/median sale price is $426,934/$390,000

During the same period in 2012 there were 16 sales,
highest sale price was $505,000
Average/median sale price $357,875/$340,000

So maybe Skyline Bel Air is finally going to have its day….
And I’ll bet that in the months ahead we’ll see at least a few of those 21 homes that sold this year come up for sale again, but renovated and remodeled, and, of course, at a higher price. Raising the bar is Skyline Bel Air.

And whataya you know, 5402 E Camino Bosque which was built in 1970 and sold in February for $240,000 (in 1 day) came back on the market in late August at $425,000,
looking nothing like the 70’s,

and today it’s in contract. And I’ll bet there’s more to come.

5402 E Camino Bosque Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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you win some you lose some

7200 E Desert Moon Loop sold for $1,280,000 in 2003. And then in 2008 it was listed for $1,695,000, and after a few years and a few price cuts it finally sold today for $750,000 ($159/sf) off a $799,000 list price.

Why so cheap, I think part of it may be that Sante Fe’s are not as popular as they once were, and listing it at $1,695,000 in 08 certainly didn’t help, but the real clunker was paying  $1,280,000 in 2003 and then trying to find someone else to make the same mistake.
If they’d have come along 1 year earlier they could’ve picked it up for $819,000. Yep, it was for sale in 02 for $819,000, and didn’t sell. 
The buyers won this one.

7200 E Desert Moon Loop  Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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the supply is growing

In April the overall months of inventory was 5.3
by mid  May it was 4.7
by mid June it was 3.9
in July it hit 3.4, and that was it, the bottom
in August it was up to 4.3
September brought it up to 5
and currently it’s at 6.9

That’s overall MOI for all price ranges, but even the lower end of the market has seen a rise in MOI.

In April it was at 3.5
by mid May it was 3
June 2.75
July 2.4, and that was it, the bottom
in August it was up to 3.1
September 3.4
and currently it’s at 5 months. Still a healthy market, but double where it was in July.

And the upper-end market, it has done just the opposite, it started off pretty good, it looked promising, but it was short lived and soon faded to where we are now, about 40 months of inventory at $1mil+.

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strange visitors from another planet

I first posted this piece in October 2010 and came across it today and felt that it still rings true,  at least for the upper-end of the market, which, unlike the lower to mid price ranges, has not improved a great deal (or at all) from where it was in October 2010. And if you count sales at $1mil and up, and what else is there, from 1/1 – 10/28 there were 34 in 2010 and 28 this year.

The Return of strange visitors …

Here we are still in October and already the talk has turned to the growing number of cars on our streets with out-of-state plates. And how restaurants and shops are getting busier by the day. A sure sign of snow birds coming to roost for the winter season.

And, of course, in the hallowed halls of real estate everyone is revving up for the arrival of our winter visitors. The hope, or expectation, is that their arrival will bring a surge of home buying here in the foothills that will pull us out of our doldrums.

So you’ll see more advertising for homes and more open houses and, for sure, there will be a slew of new listings coming to market to meet the hoped-for demand.

Just the other day I had a conversation with some clients about how the attitude of sellers and their listing agents will change once January rolls around. January is opening day for the winter season and, with its arrival, sellers and their agents get all puffed-up and confident. They become more confident of getting a good offer and, in turn, become less flexible about what they’re willing to accept. And because there are more buyers on the streets, it stands to reason that they would. Because for many years that’s how it worked.

Come January, snow birds would arrive and home sales in the foothills would take off like a shot. And that seasonal rhythm has become ingrained and second nature.

But our winter visitors, whether they’re from Chicago, Des Moines or Kansas City, are not from another planet. And they are not going to arrive with pockets full of cash and a care-free, free spending attitude. They are not.

They are going to be as careful and concerned and tight fisted, and as much on the lookout for a bargain, as everyone else has been. So rather than getting all puffed up and confident, the best thing sellers and their agents could do, that is if they wish to take advantage of this fleeting opportunity, is to get their prices down to where buyers see their homes as an opportunity that is just too good to pass up. One that may not come their way again.

Otherwise, those winter visitors are going to go home to Des Moines with nothing more than some cactus jelly and frozen tamales and maybe think about having another look at the foothills in 2012 2015.

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speaking of remodels

Here’s another one that went to contract in 10 days - 4291 N Camino de Carrillo in Fairfield Sunrise East. Built in 1984, masonry construction, 1 story, 2447sf, 3 beds/2 baths, 2 car, remodeled - though maybe not totally, $625,000 ($255/sf).

Most buyers will not consider a home that is in need of major remodeling. They just don’t want to do it. They don’t have the knowledge, the time and are not willing to deal with the aggravation and unknowns that inevitably crop up in a big remodel. Older homes with good bones, on good lots, that have been remodeled, are a much easier sell and sell faster and for much more.

Case in point, there have been 2 sales in Fairfield Sunrise East in the last 6 months, of homes that are virtually identical to this one - with the same sq. footage, same builder, same year built, also 1 story, but not remodeled, and they sold for $389,000 ($159/sf) and $415,000 ($170/sf) and took 81 and 101 days to find a buyer.

4291 N Camino de Carrillo Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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a rare find in the old foothills

2216 E Cerrada Bala, built 1981 and remodeled and expanded in 06 - 07, sold in late 2012 for $730,000 in 9 days, and it was listed again 10 days ago for $759,000 and is reported in contract.

It has it all. It’s on a terrific private lot in Cat 8, north/south orientation, masonry construction,
1 story, 3936sf, 4/beds/3.5 baths, 4 car garage, like new, totally remodeled, for $193/sf.

I showed it last Saturday and figured it would be gone before sundown. But if you’re new to the foothills market you may look at this house and think, Oh, another one will come along. And, yes, eventually one will. But it could be a very long wait.

2216 E Cerrada Bala Tucson, AZ 85718  (link will expire 7/22/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

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nice house, good price

6164 E Hawks Nest Place went to contract today after just 16 days listed at $625,000 ($171/sf) - 2003 built, 3659 sf, 1 story, gated community - as long as you don’t mind having River Rd in your backyard. And, obviously, the buyers don’t.

6164 E Hawks Nest Place , Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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new construction in the foothills

There’s so little vacant land in the foothills that new construction of anything more than one or two homes is rare. But Pepper Viner, a southern AZ builder who, as far as I’m aware, has not built in the foothills before, is proposing to build 10 homes, but not spec homes, they’re to-be-built homes. So construction begins when a buyer comes along and plunks down a deposit and signs a contract, and not before. They range in price from $545,500 ($222/sf) for 2458sf, to $689,000 ($169/sf) for 4081sf - in the area north of River Rd and Tanuri Dr.

And the lots are not teeny little things either, they’re from .85 to .97 acres. But, as a testament to the lack of vacant buildable land in the foothills, it turns out that the lots, or some portion of them, may be in a flood zone, and therefore would require flood insurance. And I’d have thought that PV would’ve resolved an issue as important as whether or not flood insurance would be required, but I don’t know the details. But if you’re a buyer I urge you to get to know them really well.

And, if the flood issue turns out to be a non-issue, one thing is for sure, at those prices they’re going to stiffen the competition big time. But if not, then I think the outcome is murky. There are relatively very few homes in a flood zone in the foothills, and therefore foothills home owners and buyers are just not accustomed, as others in other areas may be, to living in a flood zone.

Here’s a link to the listings of the 6 available floor plans.
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

UPDATE – a reader has informed me that, in fact, Pepper Viner has built some homes in the foothills, on Sabino Mountain. I stand corrected.

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above it all

If you want to be way up in the foothills with incredible views, without spending the big-big bucks required to be in the Canyons, Cobblestone or the upper reaches of Skyline CC, 
La Paloma Drive is worth a look. It’s just a short street in Coronado Foothills Estates, maybe 1/3 of a mile, that runs along the top of a high ridge with about a dozen homes on each side of the street.

And the views,

Since there are so few homes on La P Drive the availability of homes for sale is very limited.

And I was reminded of it because one just came up for sale this morning. The listing says;
This home isn't for everyone, but if you want amazing views of the Tucson Valley from the back and stunning Catalina Mountain views in your front yard, you’ll want to see this house.
(but really, what home is for everyone)

OK, so here it is,

 Kinda hmmm looking outside,

but kinda Aha inside,

4276sf, 4/beds/3 baths, yes 2 story, $850,000 ($199/sf). Because it’s on a narrow ridge many of the homes are 2 story, but not all.

4210 E La Paloma Drive Tucson, AZ 85718  -
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona)

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gee, I wonder if they left anything on the table

3039 E Placita Los Siete Adobes – a rare and very desirable newer adobe home built by Jim Gray - showed up today as new listing for $600,000 ($250/sf) and 3 minutes later it was reported in contract, obviously, a behind the scenes deal. And that’s perfectly OK, except that the house next door – same builder, same unique adobe construction, same sq. footage, same size lot, same everything and built 1 year earlier – sold in 3 days for $725,000 ($301/sf) this past July.

And 3039 is also listed as a short sale. Now it’s entirely possible that there’s more here than meets the eye. But, ignoring that possibility for a moment, why sell such a highly desirable home for $600,000, without exposing it to the market, when it’s very likely you could get much more, and without much fuss. Especially if it’s a short sale. hmmm!

3039 E Placita Los Siete Adobes Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Home Works Real Estate 3391)
The pictures are nothing to write home about, but why fuss when you already have a buyer.

and the $725 sale next door,  3035 E Placita Los Siete Adobes
these pictures do a better job showing the unique charms of a Jim Gray adobe

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a big deal

Up in the Canyons, 7557 N Secret Canyon Drive, listed at $3,500,000 ($668/sf), went to contract today. We’ll have to wait to find out the contract price, but, just a hunch, I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes for $3mil or more. And if so then it is a big deal, there hasn’t been a sale in the Canyon’s for $3mil since 2007 when 2 sold at $3.2 & $3.8. And others have tried but none have succeeded.

The next highest sale was $2.6 in 2008. And after 08 there wasn’t another sale until 2011 and 2012 – with 2 sales each year, but at drastically reduced prices.

Like this drastic:

Started at $3,250,000 ($585/sf) -   Sold  at $1,400,000 ($252/sf)
Started at $5,000,000 ($722/sf)  -  Sold at $1,850,000 ($267/sf)
Started at$3,800,000 ($610/sf)   -  Sold - $2,150,000 ($345/sf)
Started at $4,500,000 ($622/sf)  -  Sold - $2,050,000 ($283/sf)

And that’s not to say that 7557 hasn’t taken its lumps.  It debuted in October 2010 at $5,500,000.
We’ll see.

7557 N Secret Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718 
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s Intl Realty)

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in contract last week 10/14 –10/20

From Monday October 14th through Sunday October 20th  just 12 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills. Last week’s report was odd in that all but one of the contracts were in the mid to upper end of the market, with just one at the lower end. This week they’re all huddled at the lower end. Fair’s fair.

all 12 are priced from $295,000 to $599,000
and that’s it!

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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at least they stuck to their guns

On and off the market since 2011 at essentially  $750,000 (with brief forays down to $735 and $749) 5328 N Ventana Overlook Place has once again been canceled, still asking $750,000.
So two years of showings, and the disruption that goes with it, and nothing to show for it.

Prior to 2011 it was listed in the $800’s.

5328 N Ventana Overlook Place, Tucson, AZ 85750
(formerly listed by Long Realty)

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how fast are prices rising?

I’ve noticed a few recent sales that were at or near their 2005 sale price. And, more surprisingly, I’ve also noticed a few homes listed for as much, or even a bit more, than they sold for in 2006. They haven’t sold or gone to contract, so we’ll see, but they are being listed.

And it got me wondering, did I miss something, have I snoozed thru a sharply rising market
( 05 – 06 prices were way-way up there) or are these few sales just an anomaly. So I started pulling the numbers, and poked and prodded, and kept pulling until I got back to 2003, and nowhere did I find evidence of the market being at 05 prices. And if we're not at 2005 prices, then a listing at 06 prices is probably just another overpriced listing. At least for now.

In terms of sold prices the market hit bottom and was essentially flat in 2011/2012. And so far in 2013 prices are up from there about 5% avg and 7-8% med. Beyond that they’re almost exactly where they were in 2010, but lower than every other year back to 2004 – where, once again, they’re within a hair's breadth of where they are today, but nowhere near 05 prices. 
And $/sf is $157 today, and was $160 in 2010 and 2004 – the closest match in all 11 years. So, take your pick, 2004 or 2010, that’s where sold prices are in the foothills today.

The numbers are for single family homes listed from $0 to $999,999 and sold from January 1 thru October 15 each year. I kept it to $999 because so many more $$million+ homes sold  back then, and so few have sold this year, that including them would have badly skewed the numbers. And besides, $million+ sales this year are barely a drop in the bucket, just 27 sold for $1.0+ vs. 705 sold up to $999,999.

However, sales are rising quickly (for homes listed under 1$million). 
For sales from Jan 1 – Oct 15, the peak year was 04 with 867 sold and the bottom was 09 with 416. Imagine, a 52% drop. But then 475 in 2010, 502 in 2011, 615 in 2012  and, as noted above, 705 this year.

So I keep wondering why these sharply rising sales have not given way to more sharply rising prices. And I’ve yet to stumble across the answer, but those listings at 06 prices may be testing the waters.

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months of inventory in the Tucson Foothills

Here’s a quick snapshot of the months of inventory from February thru today by price range.

This is for single family homes.

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lots of Open Houses today

57 listed so far for the foothills in the MLS,  to see them all  – from all Tucson area agents and brokers – click to the home page of my web site and scroll down to the Open House link at the bottom left of the page. From there you can sort them by price or # of bedrooms and save or email them, or, if you wish, print the ones you intend to visit.

Happy hunting,

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art festival today at St Phillips

St Phillips Plaza
B&W Photo is from St Phillips web site, the others from my phone cam as I breezed thru at the tail end of my morning bike ride.

 

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different markets

6530 N Finisterra Drive sold in 2006 for $725,000 and sold again this February as a foreclosure for $337,050. And then it was nicely remodeled and put back on the market in June, as a flip, for $595,000, but no-go. So it drifted down-down-down and earlier this month, when it got to $518,000, it finally went to contract. But that deal has now fallen thru and it’s back on the market.

So when the foreclosed owners bought it for $725k in 2006

it looked something like this 

and this,
 

and this,

 

but after the remodel this spring it now looks like this,

and this

and this,

 
and it’s at $518,000 and still waiting for a buyer.

6530 N Finisterra Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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ain’t that the truth

From WSJ.com
By CONOR DOUGHERTY

Home Shoppers Kicking the Tires, But Delaying Deals

Potential home buyers continue to look at properties for sale but are submitting far fewer offers, the latest sign that real estate activity has cooled from the white hot pace seen during spring and summer, according to a recent report by Redfin, and online real estate brokerage.

The number of offers by Redfin customers fell 11.8% in September from August — the biggest decline the brokerage has seen all year. In September 2012 — when the market was still in the early days of recovery — offers were up 4.5% during the same period.

The problem is that people are just confused. Early last year the real estate market was starting to recover and homes were supposed to be a bargain. Then, as if overnight, you couldn’t find a home to buy, and boom-time relics like home-flippingand bidding wars were all of sudden back.

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3 more higher-end homes to choose from

1887 E Desert Garden Drive in Pima Canyon debuted yesterday at $1,319,000 ($304/sf). 
Built in 2000, 4335 sf, 4 beds/4 baths, 3 car, pool/spa. Last sold in 2010 for $1,075,000.

4841 N Summit Ridge Road in Summit Ridge Estates, showed up at $1,375,000 ($312/sf).
Built in 2006, 4412sf, 4 beds/3 baths, 3 car, pool/spa. Original owner,

7322 N McManus Trail in Cobblestone listed at $1,475,000 ($264/sf).
Built in 1993, 5659sf, 4 beds/5 baths, 3 car, pool/spa. Last sold in 95 for $900,000 – and tried for, but didn’t get, $2,375,000 in 06.

1887 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 - 4841 N Summit Ridge Road Tucson, AZ 85750 - 7322 N McManus Trail Tucson, AZ 85718 (all listed by Long Realty)

That increases the selection at $1mil+ to 92 for sale vs. 2 sold in the last 30 days = 46 MOI (months of inventory). That sure looks like a buyers market to me, and, other than there not being any great foreclosure deals amongst them to spur sales, not terribly unlike the high-end market during the dark days of the bust. But, there is hope, we’re just coming off the slower summer market and approaching what is traditionally the height of the season for high-end sales. So there’s that, and we’ll see.

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a pocket listing

A Pocket listing is one where the listing agent has a listing agreement with the owner/seller but the listing is not in the MLS. But why would you list your house and not put it in the MLS.
- you or your agent already have a buyer who is ready, willing and able to pay your price.

- you want to sell but, for whatever reason, you’re not quite ready to put the house in the MLS,

- You’re in a very desirable house in a HOT market and believe that you can find a buyer,  without having to deal with the disruption of the many showings that will result from being in  the MLS.

- other

I suspect that one of those may have been why the owners of 4319 E Pinnacle Ridge Place chose to sell their house without putting it in the MLS, until it was in the can. 
It first turned up in the MLS this morning as a new listing, then 2 minutes later it was changed to Sale Pending and 2 minutes after that to SOLD, for $785,000 - 6 minutes start to finish.

And looking at the house I’m sure they would’ve been mobbed for showings had they listed it in the MLS. (we should all have that problem)
In Pinnacle Ridge - Built in 2002, 3541sf, 1 story, 4 beds/3 baths, 3 car, pool/spa – $799,000 ($226/sf) list, sold for $785,000 ($222/sf), with no muss, no fuss and no bother.

The overall market in the foothills at $700 to $800k is, or was, doing pretty well, but in Pinnacle Ridge it’s white HOT! And, to boot, they probably didn’t leave any money on the table either, or at most a few cents, at $222/sf it’s the highest $$/sf sale in Pinnacle this year.

4319 E Pinnacle Ridge Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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not in the foothills

The Old Ft. Lowell Historic Neighborhood is out of my usual stomping grounds, but I just happened to come across a listing in there that looks pretty special.  

Built in 1885, there’s nothing anywhere near that old, or historic, in the foothills, 5202 E Fort Lowell Road, listed for $599,000, 2564sf, 3 beds/2 baths on 1 acre with pool. Simplicity and charm with just the right touch of updating and appears to be in mint condition too.

 

Wow!
5202 E Fort Lowell Road Tucson, AZ 85712
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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in contract last week, 10/7 – 10/13

Geez, talk about an odd week. We usually have somewhere around 15 to 20something contracts/week, and the vast majority of the contracts are always at the lower end, priced from $0 to $599,999. Always.
So out  20 contracts you’d see maybe 3 or 4 above $599, and that’s it, and anything above $1.0mil has been rarer than rain. 

But not last week. Last week there were just 9 contracts - the fewest weekly contracts this year, which is understandable given the shenanigans in DC -  but 8 of them are priced from $799,000 to $1,395,000 and just 1 at $299,000. A complete flip-flop. What gives??

1 priced at $299,000
5 priced from $799,000 to $999,000
and, incredibly, 3 priced at $1,075,000, $1,195,000 and $1,395,000
(though the La Quinta at $1.395 has fallen out, but still)

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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sold for $2.2mil 2006, now $1,590,000

In Pima Canyon, 2335 E Long Shadow Place, listed in May for $1,695,000, dropped to $1,590,000 today. Built 2006, 4737sf, 1.2 acres, pool, spa and observation deck

There’s no mention of it in the listing, because maybe it isn’t, but it sure looks like a David Tyson design, to me.

2335 E Long Shadow Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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a Joesler

Listed today, 4320 N Alvernon Way, a 1950 built Joesler, 4,223sf on 3.36 acres,

with 4 stalls for the horses,

and a nice spot to wash off the trail dust

If you’re looking for charm and character, the listing aptly notes, “More character than words can describe”

4320 N Alvernon Way Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And if it looks familiar, it is, because it was first listed in 2008 for $1,495,000 and was on and off the market until they called it quits in March 2012 at $1,000,000. 
And I’ve mentioned here several times.

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a contract in Cobblestone

and on a very nice house, too. 3371 E Finger Rock Circle, listed at $1,075,000, is finally in contract after 511 days. It was first listed in May 2012 for $1,350,000, dropped to $1,249,000 in October and dropped again this March to $1,095,000, then to $1,075,000 in May.

I showed it last month and was crazy about it – spacious open floor plan with tall ceilings and, literally, wall to wall windows overlooking gorgeous city views, it appeared to be in mint condition, masonry construction, and on a very nice, private and beautifully landscaped lot in Cob. And for my buyers it came very close, but not close enough. And though it wasn’t what killed the deal for them, it’s a 3 bedroom, not a 4, and not 3 + an office. 3 bedroom, period. 
And it’s a 2 car garage, not a 3.
And I’ll bet one or the other, or both, are what held up the sale. I can’t imagine what else it could be.

3371 E Finger Rock Circle  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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Skyline Bel Air

Skyline Bel Air has had nothing short of a stellar year.

21 homes sold this year, with the latest sale at 5960 N Camino Esplendora turning in the highest sale price of the year at $625,000. 
+ 1 in contract and 5 for sale = a very lean 2.25 months of inventory.
The average/median sale price is $426,934/$390,000

During the same period in 2012 there were 16 sales,
highest sale price was $505,000
Average/median sale price $357,875/$340,000

So maybe Skyline Bel Air is finally going to have its day. 
During the early years of the boom I was predicting that it would see substantial investment by home owners and investors renovating/remodeling its older housing stock. And it started off pretty good but was quickly choked off by the bust, at which time I stuck to it and predicted that someday it would be - the next hot-spot for fixer uppers in the Tucson Foothills – and now that the dust has settled and the market is recovering – at least at the lower end – I’m once again holding to that prediction. And one of these days I’ll be right. The location, location, the good lots and the modest prices are just too good to pass up. And I’ll bet that in the months ahead we’ll see at least a few of those 21 homes that sold this year come up for sale again, but renovated and remodeled, and, of course, at a higher price. Raising the bar is Skyline Bel Air.

It’s while not exactly the type of investment and turnover I was referring to, the sellers of Camino Esplendora purchased it in 1982 for $180,000, and sometime in the recent past did a thorough and very nice renovation and sold it in 15 days for $625,000.

 5960 N Camino Esplendora Tucson, AZ 85718 
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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looking for something really BIG

This is it - 3900 N Camino Blanco, if you’ve cruised past Cmo Blanco along River Rd you’ve seen it, you can’t help but see it. It is, according to the current listing, 13,344sf, 2 story with 5 garage bays on 2.6 acres, built in 2007, and an indoor pool too. One of the bigger and more daring spec homes built during the spec home boom. I showed it once or twice back then, and it’s really big.

It was first listed in 2007 for $3,400,000 (as10,529sf) and over the years drifted down to $749,800, whereupon these sellers picked it up as a foreclosure for $710,000 in 2010, yep, $710,000 ($72.63/sf) – though by that time it had shrunk to 9,776sf.

So it’s big, but a buyer may want to satisfy themselves as to just how big it really is.

3900 N Camino Blanco  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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Sold

Billed as a pure contemporary, a home in Pima Canyon that has been on and off the market since 2010, when it started at $1,999,000, has sold today for $1,200,000 off a $1,349,000 list.

I often find that there aren’t enough contemporaries in the foothills, so when a contemporary, particularly one in a terrific location like Pima Canyon, goes wanting for months and years, I begin to wonder. But I think this drawn-out sale was all about price. The sellers paid $1,725,000 in 2004 – and what you paid usually influences what you list it for – hence the $1.999 starting list price. And I know this house and it’s a nice enough contemporary, but not dazzling, no big WOW here, and in my opinion was never a $1.725 house. Not in this century.

Today, $1,200,000 ($278./sf), sure, because if you want a real contemporary there are very few to choose from.

2004 E DESERT GARDEN Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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did I say that

A few days ago in a post titled - even Pinnacle Ridge has slowed I said; Today there are 3 homes for sale, and, while it’s not time to panic, they’ve been on the market for 39 days,11 days and 39 days. Well, not anymore, today two of those three homes are reported in contract, and they’re twins too – both built in 2001 by AF Sterling, 4446sf, 2 story, pool, etc. 

One, listed at $824,900, has been on the market 14 days, and the other, listed at $840,000, dragged it out to 42 days – if you can believe it, the slowest contract in PR this year.

Proving once again that they can’t keep them on the shelf in Pinnacle Ridge

4438 E Pinnacle Ridge Place Tucson, AZ 85718 & 6325 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Integra Group Real Estate, LLC & Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

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what’s your pleasure, older or newer

In response to a post I did showing the still dwindling sales at the upper-end – vs. a strong recovery for lower priced homes - a reader wrote in wondering if today’s skimpy upper-end sales have anything to do with the fact that in 05/06, and thereabouts, there were many more newer homes for sale (homes less than 5 years old) than there are today. Because, of course, there were many more spec homes then than now.

And I think he may have something. As I mentioned to him, I’ve often attributed the success of Pima Canyon selling many more pricey homes than anywhere else in the Foothills to the simple fact that there are many more newer homes for sale in Pima Canyon than anywhere else – and more buyers of high-end homes prefer newer to older. But I never put 2 & 2 together and connected the overall decline of upper-end market to the fact that there are many fewer newer homes available for sale.

Anyway, I pulled together a chart showing sales at $1,000,000+ over the years and the percentage of those sales that went to newer homes - a max of 5 years old 
(the sales shown are for January 1 thru September 30 each year)

At first glance this chart may be a bit confusing – because the %’s (the red bars) are often higher than the total sales for the year (blue bars). But the total sales refer to the numbers on the left side of the chart and %’s refer to the %’s on the right side of the chart.

So in 2004 there were 51 sales at $1.0+ and 61% of them, WOW!, went to newer homes. While in 2013 there have been just 25 sales at $1.0+ and only 16% went to newer homes.
And I don’t think it’s because buyers tastes have suddenly changed, I think it’s all about availability.

UPDATE:
And, now, thanks to the kindness of one of my clients, who is able to produce spreadsheets and charts with one hand tied behind his back, here’s a more vivid representation of older vs. newer home sales over the years.

 

So not only are the number of upper-end sales way down, but the % of those sales going to newer homes is also way down. And, as that reader imagined, it looks like part of the slowdown may be due to the fact that there are many fewer newer homes for sale these days. Right now there are 91 homes for sale at $1,0+ and just 9 of them are built since 2009.

Back in the day it wasn’t unusual to find a dozen or more new spec homes for sale in just Pima Canyon. 

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another quick contract on a specially constructed house

Listed on 9/19 at $999,000, 4427 E Saranac Drive is reported in contract today, just 21 days later. (it was listed earlier this year and the listing was cancelled in June, and also listed last year and the year before, all for more $$$, but the DOM stop accruing after a home has been off the market for 30 days)

But what’s special about this house is its construction – steel frame and Rastra construction. Which would seem to indicate exterior walls of Rastra with interior steel framing. Seem to, but I’m not certain. You just don’t come across many steel frame or Rastra constructed homes in the foothills. also see Rastra.com

The other interesting tidbit is that it’s located in the Manitou Ridge subdivision, where, since Jan 1 2010, there’s been just one sale, for $635,000. But if you want Rastra, the pickins are slim.

4427 E Saranac Drive  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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in contract last week, 9/30 –10/6

From Monday September 30th through Sunday October 6th  17 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills – an improvement from the previous week for the lower priced rung, with a couple of crumbs for those above $600k.

15 were priced from $225,000  to $570,000
1 at $750,000
1 at $1,1,79,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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cutting to the head of the line

Down below I mentioned the house in Cat 10, listed at $1,395,000 two weeks ago, that went to contract while the 7 others for sale in there have been at it for months.

And now another upper-end line jumper, 4865 E Placita Provida, listed 26 days ago for $1,195,000, is also in contract. Built 2007, 4748sf, 1 story, $252/sf, last sold in 07 for $1,400,000. So instead of pussyfooting around trying to recoup what they paid when the upper-end market was HOT, they priced it for today’s much cooler market.

good looking house, attractive price,

4865 E Placita Provida Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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even Pinnacle Ridge has slowed

Earlier this year 6 homes sold in PR and they sold in 21 days, 11 days,  2 days, 1 day, 30 days and 5 days, average DOM  11.

Today there are 3 homes for sale, and, while it’s not time to panic, they’ve been on the market for 39 days,11 days and 39 days, average DOM 29, and counting.

the way it was -  they can’t keep them on the shelf in Pinnacle Ridge

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Bingo!

When 3780 E Sumo Quinto, a La Quinta, was listed for $1,395,000 2 weeks ago, I said; maybe this La Quinta is just the thing to break Cat 10’s rather limp track record this year.

And wouldn’t you know it, Sumo Quinto is reported in contract today.

The limp track record being;
8 for sale from $875,000 to $1,895,000 - avg/median list - $1,336,250/$1,312,500
0 in contract – (now 1 in contract at $1,395,000) yeah!
4 sold since Jan 1, and all at the lower to mid end for Cat 10, from $386,000, to $870,000    avg/median sold -  $646,500/$665,000.

3780 E Sumo Quinto Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s Int Realty)

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you can ask whatever you want

A long time coming but 3390 E Finger Rock Circle, up in Cobblestone, has finally hit on the right price. It was first listed in 2007 for $1,625,000, but no bites. So it called it quits for 3 years and reappeared in 2011 – with a new agent & broker - asking $1,399,000, but still no-go. So it dropped to $1,299,000, and nothing happened and, cut-cut-cut, it finally dropped to $750,000 and, Bingo!, it’s in contract. $750,000, after all that. 

3390 E Finger Rock Circle Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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the big picture, from Credit Suisse

As I’ve mentioned before I participate in a monthly survey of real estate agents conducted by Credit Suisse. The survey covers 42 market across the USA and in September they received responses from 700 real estate agents, myself included.  Here are their findings for the 42 markets covered.

September Survey of Real Estate Agents:
Buyer Traffic Slips Further, Despite Stabilization/ Pullback in Rates

Market continues to cool at start of fall season: The housing market’s fall season started slowly as fatigue over rising rates, home prices, and a lack of attractive inventory persisted across most markets in September. The decline in mortgage rates will hopefully help traffic over time, but hasn’t yet. Buyers are pushing back on the aggressive price increases from recent months, and while agents generally saw rising prices in September due to limited available inventory, we saw slowing momentum and increased incentive use (not surprising, especially as builders can tailor incentives to address hot-button issues such as interest rate buy-downs).

• Buyer traffic drops again in September, well below agents’ expectations as hesitancy continues, despite the  recent pullback in rates: Our buyer traffic index fell to 36 in September from 45 in August, pointing to a second straight month of traffic missing agents’ expectations (a reading of 50 indicates in-line traffic). This is also the lowest level since November 2011. Agents blamed the increase in mortgage rates and home prices, and we didn’t see signs that the recent pullback in rates has led buyers to re-engage yet. Weakness was broad-based, with none of the top-20 markets exceeding expectations, though markets in Texas and Florida (aside from Jacksonville) appeared comparatively more healthy. Investor-heavy markets (Atlanta, Phoenix, Vegas) continued to take a hit as investors pulled back.

• Lack of inventory still driving prices higher, though momentum appears to be easing: Our home price index fell to 72 in September from 76 in August. This still indicates rising home prices, but less broad-based than in prior months, suggesting momentum is slowing. The key driver lifting prices remains the lack of supply, which is offsetting weaker traffic in most markets. We also saw signs of increased incentive use, a negative for pricing.

• Inventories and time to sell trend modestly lower: Our home listings was unchanged at 57, while our time to sell index edged down to 57 from 58 in August, modestly above neutral readings. These indicators remain supportive for home price trends, though continued weakness in traffic would likely lead to less favorable conditions.
____________________________________________________________________________

Survey Methodology

We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an understanding of the existing home market as crucial to homebuilders as it represents over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the new home market.

Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives, inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In September, we received responses from 700 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and calculate an index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends, levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend.

Source: Credit Suisse

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like crocus in the spring

There’s been a flurry of new upper-end listings this week, and like crocus in the spring they signal a change of season. In our case we’re leaving behind, we hope, the doldrums of the summer market and entering the more robust fall-winter-spring season. Which, traditionally,
is prime time for the upper-end market.

Since Monday there have been 29 new listings and 7 are priced from $1,095,000 to $2,200,000. And they’re all across the foothills, in Cat 10, Alta Vista, Cat 10 again, the Old Foothills, Sabino Mountain and Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates. And you can bet your booties that more are on the way.

That increases the upper-end selection to 89 homes for sale priced from $1,000,000 to $13,900,000 – vs. 26 sold since Jan 1 = a 30 month supply. Well, the supply is there, now let’s see how the demand side measures up. Stay tuned.

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September Home Sales and Sold Prices in the Tucson Foothills

Once again, not a rousing report for September home sales. Have a look, they actually dropped a notch from where they were in August, and I was hoping that August was just a freak month. Now we have two freaks.

And though sale prices are up a smidge from their record lows of August, it’s hardly worth cheering about.

 

Here’s a link to the 62 that did sell in September.

And let’s see where this puts us for January thru September, this year vs. last year.

2012 – 634 sold @ $461,688/$370,500   (avg/median sold price)

2013 – 703 sold @ $458,091/$390,000

So YTD sales are up almost 11% and sold prices are down .77% average and up just over 5% median. The good news though, for buyers anyway, is there are no bubbles in the Tucson Foothills single family home market.

The August report is HERE 

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gee, I wonder what the new owners plan to do with this

3705 N Old Sabino Canyon Road sold today to a cash buyer for $1,720,000 ($341/sf) – built in 1954, 5042sf, encompassing a main residence and an assortment of outbuildings,

oh, I did wonder, until I saw that it’s on 19 acres,

 

3705 N Old Sabino Canyon Road Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty )

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another win for Sabino Mountain

4147 N Sabino Mountain Drive sold in 2006 for $1,150,000 and again today for $875,000.
Huh, you call that a win.

Well, it may not be a fond memory for the sellers, but what can you do, they bought in March 2006, like millions did. And it wasn’t a distress sale either. But it is a win for Sabino Mountain, which is finally having a very good year after 3 or 4 not very good years.
16 sales this year – 9 of them in the section devoted to smaller homes (which has done well all along) from $257,000 to $335,000, but also 7 sales from $797,000 to $1,374,000 on the greener pastures of the mountain.

In all of 2012 there were 14 sales with the highest of the high at $610,000. And in 2011 a grand total of 7 sales with the highest at $675,000 and from there to $535,000. 

4147 N Sabino Mountain Drive Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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getting competitive

In Alta Vista, 6661 N Placita Alta Reposa was listed today for $1,150,000 (by  Long Realty). And if the past is any guide – it sold for $1,200,000 in 04 – this may be attractively priced.

Likewise for 3805 E Placita De Piacho in Cat 10, which was relisted today with a price reduction to $1,295,000, it sold for $1,575,000 in 2007. (also by Long Realty)

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in contract last week, 9/23 – 9/29

From Monday September 23rd through Sunday September 29th  14 single family homes went to contract in the Tucson Foothills – a weak week for contracts.

10 were priced from $249,500 to $559,000
3 from $600,000 to $799,000
and 1 mega deal at $1,895,000

Meanwhile, during that same week 46 homes were listed for sale, 7 of which are priced from $1,095,000 to $1,799,000.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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our lopsided recovery

A picture is worth 1000 words so I’ll keep it short.

the two charts show the number of single family home sold for the period of Jan 1 thru Sept 30th for two broad price ranges;  homes sold up to $999,999 and homes sold from $1,000,000 &  up.

&

Startling, isn’t it. Notice too, in 2006 when sales of homes under $$million plummeted, sales of homes over  $$million rose quite dramatically. But unlike homes under $$million that have seen steady growth since bottoming out in 2009, the upper-end is still scrapping around the bottom of the barrel.

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