I’ve noticed a few recent sales that were at or near their 2005 sale price. And, more surprisingly, I’ve also noticed a few homes listed for as much, or even a bit more, than they sold for in 2006. They haven’t sold or gone to contract, so we’ll see, but they are being listed.
And it got me wondering, did I miss something, have I snoozed thru a sharply rising market
( 05 – 06 prices were way-way up there) or are these few sales just an anomaly. So I started pulling the numbers, and poked and prodded, and kept pulling until I got back to 2003, and nowhere did I find evidence of the market being at 05 prices. And if we're not at 2005 prices, then a listing at 06 prices is probably just another overpriced listing. At least for now.
In terms of sold prices the market hit bottom and was essentially flat in 2011/2012. And so far in 2013 prices are up from there about 5% avg and 7-8% med. Beyond that they’re almost exactly where they were in 2010, but lower than every other year back to 2004 – where, once again, they’re within a hair's breadth of where they are today, but nowhere near 05 prices.
And $/sf is $157 today, and was $160 in 2010 and 2004 – the closest match in all 11 years. So, take your pick, 2004 or 2010, that’s where sold prices are in the foothills today.
The numbers are for single family homes listed from $0 to $999,999 and sold from January 1 thru October 15 each year. I kept it to $999 because so many more $$million+ homes sold back then, and so few have sold this year, that including them would have badly skewed the numbers. And besides, $million+ sales this year are barely a drop in the bucket, just 27 sold for $1.0+ vs. 705 sold up to $999,999.
However, sales are rising quickly (for homes listed under 1$million).
For sales from Jan 1 – Oct 15, the peak year was 04 with 867 sold and the bottom was 09 with 416. Imagine, a 52% drop. But then 475 in 2010, 502 in 2011, 615 in 2012 and, as noted above, 705 this year.
So I keep wondering why these sharply rising sales have not given way to more sharply rising prices. And I’ve yet to stumble across the answer, but those listings at 06 prices may be testing the waters.
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