In response to a post I did showing the still dwindling sales at the upper-end – vs. a strong recovery for lower priced homes - a reader wrote in wondering if today’s skimpy upper-end sales have anything to do with the fact that in 05/06, and thereabouts, there were many more newer homes for sale (homes less than 5 years old) than there are today. Because, of course, there were many more spec homes then than now.
And I think he may have something. As I mentioned to him, I’ve often attributed the success of Pima Canyon selling many more pricey homes than anywhere else in the Foothills to the simple fact that there are many more newer homes for sale in Pima Canyon than anywhere else – and more buyers of high-end homes prefer newer to older. But I never put 2 & 2 together and connected the overall decline of upper-end market to the fact that there are many fewer newer homes available for sale.
Anyway, I pulled together a chart showing sales at $1,000,000+ over the years and the percentage of those sales that went to newer homes - a max of 5 years old
(the sales shown are for January 1 thru September 30 each year)
At first glance this chart may be a bit confusing – because the %’s (the red bars) are often higher than the total sales for the year (blue bars). But the total sales refer to the numbers on the left side of the chart and %’s refer to the %’s on the right side of the chart.
So in 2004 there were 51 sales at $1.0+ and 61% of them, WOW!, went to newer homes. While in 2013 there have been just 25 sales at $1.0+ and only 16% went to newer homes.
And I don’t think it’s because buyers tastes have suddenly changed, I think it’s all about availability.
UPDATE:
And, now, thanks to the kindness of one of my clients, who is able to produce spreadsheets and charts with one hand tied behind his back, here’s a more vivid representation of older vs. newer home sales over the years.
So not only are the number of upper-end sales way down, but the % of those sales going to newer homes is also way down. And, as that reader imagined, it looks like part of the slowdown may be due to the fact that there are many fewer newer homes for sale these days. Right now there are 91 homes for sale at $1,0+ and just 9 of them are built since 2009.
Back in the day it wasn’t unusual to find a dozen or more new spec homes for sale in just Pima Canyon.
see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Tucson Foothills home