With steeply falling sales and growing inventory during the real estate bust, 2008 thru 2011, the real estate market here in the Tucson Foothills increasingly favored buyers. But despite that advantage relatively few buyers were buying. But in 2012 that began to change, as many sellers finally got real and dropped their prices to reflect actual market conditions, and as a result more homes started selling. And with that, the balance began to shift from an absolute buyers market to a somewhat more balanced market.
And that trend continued into this year, and with even more momentum, with rising sales and falling inventory, resulting in a sellers market up to about $600k and, if not quite a sellers market, certainly a much stronger market up to about 1 million. That is until August, when sales fell dramatically, followed by equally slow sales in September and October. And as sales have slowed, inventory has increased.
And now, even lower priced homes, a segment that has outperformed the market thru thick and thin, are succumbing to the slowdown.
Here’s a look at MOI (months of inventory) at key points in the transition.
In February the overall MOI (all price ranges) was 6 and for homes up to $599k it 4 MOI.
By mid May it dropped to 4.7 MOI overall and 3 MOI for homes up to $599k.
By mid July, it’s lowest point, it was 3.4 MOI overall and 2.4 for homes up to $599k.
By mid October it had risen to 5.6 MOI overall and 3.9 up to $599k.
Today, it’s at 10 MOI overall and 7.3 for homes up to $599k.
That’s the highest MOI has been since at least 2011.
And to flesh out the picture here’s a look at monthly sales from Jan 2012 thru this October.

And, needless to say, the upper-end, at $1.0+, is pretty much where it’s been all year long, very few sales and bloated with inventory – 100 for sale and 3 sold in the last 30 days = 33 MOI.
In Phoenix they’re experiencing a similar slowdown and turn toward a buyers market.
And for a snapshot of the current foothills market click the Market Snapshot tab at the top of the page.
see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home