The Catalina Foothills

in contract last week, 4/21– 4/27

From Monday April 21st through Sunday April 27th  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills.

18 were priced $226,000 to $575,000
6 from $625,000 to $999,000
1 at $1,265,000

A very respectable turnout for low to mid priced homes,

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

just 27 shopping days ‘til the snowbirds clear out of dodge

Memorial Day is generally recognized as the unofficial end of our snowbird season, and with its arrival comes the departure of many prospective foothills home buyers.

And that’s true at all price ranges, but it’s more true at the upper-end, at $1,000,000 & UP.

Using 2013 as an example;
Sales under $1mil were 16% higher from Jan – June than from July – December

But sales at $1,000,000+ were 50% higher from Jan – June than July – December.

However, since 2013 was such a dismal year for high-end sales, let’s look at 2006, the pinnacle, the peak, the height of the hilarity for high-end sales.

In that year, the same result, sales were 50% higher from Jan – June than from
July – December.  In 2012 the difference was 33%.

But as you might expect, it’s the 3rd quarter, July – September, that’s the real culprit, when high-end sales drop off most dramatically. In 2013 there were 266% more high-end sales in each of the 1st 2 quarters than in the 3rd. The 4th quarter, October – December, is kind of a mixed bag, with more sales than the summer but not as many as Jan – June.

Right now there are 106 homes for sale at $1.0+, 10 in contract and 10 sold since Jan 1.
Last year at this time there were 78 for sale, 11 in contract and 16 sold since Jan 1. So we may fail to even beat last year’s dismal record.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home
                               ________________________________________________

My observations and opinions of the Catalina Foothills market are based on the facts. I observe and analyze the market, I  crunch the numbers and tell it like it is. If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation.
John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

would you buy a home where broadband internet service is not available

Comcast covers a wide swath of the Catalina Foothills with cable tv and broadband internet service, but it does not cover all of the foothills. There are many streets and areas where it’s just not available.

You can get satellite tv in any of those areas and that solves the tv issue, if it is an issue, but, increasingly, broadband internet service is the must-have connection. I know it is for me, I could care less about cable tv.

As an alternative there’s Century Link,(DSL connection) which, on it’s website, prominently displays internet connection speeds up to 40 megabits/second. And that sounds great, if you can get it. But I plugged in a few different foothills addresses, where cable is not available, and found that the highest available Century Link connection is 1.5 megabits/second, agonizingly slow by today’s standards, and not nearly fast enough to stream from Netflix, Amazon, etc. And forget about doing anything while someone else is connected. You’re dead in the water.

It’s something to check out before you commit to buying a home.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

The New York Times seems to think that the stalled housing market is the cause of the still stalled economy

and not the other way around, hmmm

From NYTimes.com

Why the Housing Market Is Still Stalling the Economy

If the economy still feels stuck, blame the housing market.

That may not match how people in a handful of big, prosperous cities see things. After a disastrous and historic crash, housing is booming in places like San Francisco and New York. Bidding wars are back, and the question is not whether the real estate market is recovering but whether new bubbles are inflating.

But there’s another reality that is more important for the national economy. Except in a few booming markets, housing is nowhere close to pulling its economic weight. Consider this:

Investment in residential property remains a smaller share of the overall economy than at any time since World War II, contributing less to growth than it did even in previous steep downturns in the early 1980s, when mortgage rates hit 20 percent, or the early 1990s, when hundreds of mortgage lenders failed.

Continue reading,  Why the Housing Market is Still Stalling the Economy

And look at the bright side, at least they admit the economy is stalled.

asking $929k and in contract in 9 days, “nah, never happen”

I was planning to show 2457 E Calle Sin Condena next week to buyers coming in from out of town. It’s in Sin Vacas, asking $929,000 ($253/sf), it’s very good looking, has the right space indoors and out, gorgeous views and is very nicely updated. And it’s on the market just 9 days, so I figured “in this market, it’ll still be around”, but no, it did happen. 9 days and it’s in contract, even in this market.

Meanwhile, there are 9 other homes in contract listed from $800k to $1mil, the average days on market is 201, the median is 161.

2457 E Calle Sin Condena Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)  (link expires on 5/27/14)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                               ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation. 
                    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

3 contracts yesterday

on 3 good homes

6500 N Longfellow Drive, a very nice remodel in Coronado Fthls Est, listed 47 days ago for  $499,000, is now in contract. I mentioned it when it was first listed > from dowdy to delightful >

and figured it would be gone in a couple weeks. But in this market, 47 days is the new greased lightning. (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And the same goes for 4458 E Pinnacle Ridge Place, listed 57 days ago for $739,000, it too is finally in contract. Finally, because homes in Pinnacle that are single story, 3541 sf,
4 Beds/3.5 Baths, 3 car, for $739,000 ($208/sf) don’t sit around for 57 days. Until now.
  
And again I stuck my neck out when it was listed > let’s see how long this lasts < predicting it would be gone in 2 weeks. (listed by Long Realty)

And the quickest of the bunch, and one of my personal favorites, and one of the very last homes designed and built by David Tyson - 5543 N Camino Real, built 2007, 3722 sf, 3 Beds/3.5 Baths, range price listed for $900,000 – $940,000, is in contract after 42 days. It last sold as new construction for $1,000,000 in 09. (listed by RE/MAX Excalibur Realty)
And if anything I thought it would take the longest to find a buyer because it’s close to Cmo. Real, though it’s at the north end of it where there are very few cars passing by, and Cmo Real dead ends a little ways up.

See them HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                               ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation. 
                    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

real estate news

From WSJ.com
By ANYA MARTIN

Jumbo Mortgage Rates Lower Than Expected
Experts predicted a big upswing in jumbo interest rates this spring, but rates have remained fairly low.

For jumbo borrowers, April hasn't been the cruelest month after all.

Six months ago, some mortgage experts were predicting a tougher spring for borrowers of jumbo mortgages—loans above $417,000 in most parts of the country and $625,500 in some high-price areas. After record-low jumbo interest rates last spring, rates were expected to climb this year.

But the reality has been brighter: Interest rates for jumbo mortgages remain lower than previously expected for 2014 and are likely to stay stable for the next few months, experts say.

Jumbo rates for 30-year fixed loans averaged 4.46% between March 21 and April 18, according to HSH.com, a publisher of mortgage and consumer loan information. That is higher than a historic low of 3.95% for the same period a year ago, but the second-lowest average rate in the past 10 years. Rates in this spring period skyrocketed as high as 7.23% in 2008.

Low, stable rates are an especially bright spot for high-end home buyers, as prices have continued to climb, says Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Continue reading - Jumbo Mortgage Rates Lower

(a subscription to WSJ.com may be required)

   ___________________________________________________________________________

From WSJ.com
By SANETTE TANAKA

Discounts for Homes Above $20 Million
There's often a big gap between asking price and sale price at the highest end of the real-estate market.
**(reduce the $20mil figure to $2mil+ to reflect our Catalina Foothills highest-end of the market)

Want to find a home at a big discount? Look for one priced above $20 million.

At the top echelon of the market, agents struggle to pinpoint the right listing price when the usual pricing methods—using comparable properties and assessing land and space—fall short. The result: Pricing at the top tier can be a guessing game, and often sellers ultimately settle for far less than their asking price.

An enormous amount of discounting occurs in the $20 million-and-above listings market. The median sale-to-list price ratio is 0.72—a steep drop from the sale-to-list ratio of homes nationwide, which hasn't dropped below 0.95 since January 2009, according to an analysis by real-estate website Zillow. Zillow examined homes originally listed for more than $20 million that eventually sold. Since January 2008, only 210 homes fit the bill.

"You're in this rarefied space at this price point—one where fundamental value is really hard to ascertain so agents and homeowners are left to put a marker in the sand and see who comes," says Stan Humphries, chief economist at Zillow.

Continue reading - Discounts for Homes Above $20 Million
(a subscription to WSJ.com may be required)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OK, so now we know that we’re not alone, that pie-in-the-sky prices are in vogue in other cool places too, like NY, LA, … 
So just for the fun of it let’s see how our %’s stack up against their %’s.
Looking at all the homes that were listed for $2mil and UP and sold since Jan 1, 2013
(all 5, that is) in the foothills, here’s what our %’s look like.
This is not exactly apples/apples since theirs are median #’s for many homes and ours are exact #’s for individual homes. Nevertheless, the takeaway is loud and clear.

Property	Original List $$	Sold $$	%/Sold to List price
3705 Old Sabino Cyn Rd	$3,300,000	$1,700,000	52%
6921 E Rock Ledge Pl	$2,495,000	$1,900,000	76%
2102 E Desert Garden Dr	$4,199,000	$2,500,000	59%
7557 N Secret Canyon Dr	$5,500,000	$3,700,000	67% **
8375 E Canyon Side Rd	$6,900,000	$3,411,450	49%

**list price at time of sale was $3.5 and the final sale included an additional 3 acre parcel that was not included in the listing – hence the over list price sale and a higher %SP/LP than would have been the case.
_____________________________________________________________________

And finally, a little lite reading to relieve the strain and stress as you plot and peruse the listings for a weekend of house looking in the Foothills.

From NYTimes.com
By MICHELLE HIGGINS

The Million-Dollar Manhattan Apartment

(in a nutshell)
“Below a million is like a dying breed,” said Jonathan J. Miller, the author of Elliman’s report and the president of the appraisal firm Miller Samuel.
_______________________________________________________________________

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

big deal fell thru

Listed  at $2,795,000 ($374/sf), 6268 N Whaleback Place in Ventana CC went to contract earlier this month after about 440 days on the market and today it fell thru. And oddly enough it did so after the status had been changed to PENDING, indicating that the inspection period was over, and all was fine and dandy, and it was full steam ahead to COE. Something very unexpected, I suspect, must have occurred.

It sold well in the past, for $2,950,000 in 06 and $3,100,000 in 08 (in 75 days), so it’s not without a good track record, but in this market, we’ll see.

6268 N Whaleback Place  Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                               ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, please call or email today for a confidential consultation.     John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

a contract for Pima Canyon

1887 E Desert Garden Drive, now listed at $1,265,000 ($292/sf) is in contract after 188 days.
Built 2000, frame stucco, 4335 sf, 4 Beds/3.5 Baths, Pool/spa, 3 car – it last sold in 2010 for $1,075,000. Can’t wait to see the sale price.

With gorgeous, unobstructed Catalina mountain views - there is a vacant lot to the NE and eventually it will get built, but PC is all single story, with height limits, and very mindful of proper siting of homes to protect privacy and views, within reason.

Pima Canyon, a perennial favorite with upper-end buyers, has traditionally out-sold other
upper-end foothills communities, and while it too is taking its lumps in this slower market it’s holding up better than others. 
1887 E Desert Garden Drive  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty

Now In PC
7 for sale from  $1,149,000 to $3,250,000
2 in contract at $900,000 and, now, $1,265,000
3 sold since Jan 1 at $1,275,000 , $1,345,000, $1,370,000 (link will expire on 5/24/14)
= about 9 MOI - Happy days for times like this.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                               ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, please call or email today for a confidential consultation.     John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

a week of lopsided contracts, 4/14 - 4/20

From Monday April 14th through Sunday April 20th  20 single family homes went to contract*in the Catalina Foothills. And that’s good news for sellers priced under $600,000 because 19 of those contracts were for homes priced under $600,00. And not one for homes in the $600,000 to $999,999 range, and just one squeaked in over a million, at $1,050,000. (*link will expire on 5/23/14) 

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

And for comparison, during the same week last year there were 31 contracts and they weren’t all huddled at the lower end.

The score – 495 for sale, 144 in contract, 182 sold since Jan 1.

Tick-tock

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

you don’t have to spend a $$$million for a great house in the old foothills

4925 N La Lomita Drive , $725,000 ($198/sf) built 1952, but you’d never know it - top to bottom remodeled, kitchen, baths, floors, you name it - brick construction, metal roof, 3281 sf main house + 381 sf separate studio – 4 Beds/3 Baths. Elevated 1+ acre lot with privacy, city and mountain views, in the very heart of the old foothills, yet 2 minutes to everything.

$725,000! that’s not a misprint.

4925 N La Lomita Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home
                       ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, please call or email today for a confidential consultation.        John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

mountain lion sighted

Apr 22nd 2014

Earlier this year there was a report in Cat 7 that there was a mountain lion sighting and a few were skeptical. Just this past week there was another report in Oracle Hills which is just west of Cat 7 and here is that report.........

Oracle Hills.....

This week there was a credible sighting by a retired AZ Game & Fish manager of mountain lion in Oracle Foothills, crossing Agave near the wash in the 5400 block.

Recommendations from Arizona Game and Fish regarding mountain lion encounters:

Mountain lions are predators capable of seriously injuring or killing humans. The Arizona Game and Fish Department is committed to helping people learn how to behave responsibly and live safely in proximity to mountain lions, and to removing animals that are a potential threat to the public.

The risk of attack by a mountain lion is small, but real; children are most at risk. Mountain lions may return repeatedly if food, water, or shelter is available. However, mountain lions use natural areas, such as washes, to move through populated areas to more remote areas, and such movements are necessary to prevent problems with inbreeding and local extinction associated with habitat fragmentation. If food, water, and shelter are not available, mountain lions generally move on to other areas more quickly. If you live or recreate in lion country, remain aware of your surroundings and take steps to minimize risks to yourself, your family, and pets.

If you encounter a mountain lion:

• Do not approach the animal. Most mountain lions will try to avoid a confrontation. Give them a way to escape.
• Stay calm and speak loudly and firmly.
• Do not run from a mountain lion. Running may stimulate a mountain lion’s instinct to chase.
• Stand and face the animal. Make eye contact.
• Appear larger by raising your arms or opening your jacket if you are wearing one. Throw stones, branches, or whatever you can reach without crouching or turning your back. Wave your arms slowly. The idea is to convince the lion that you are not easy prey and that you may be a danger to it.
• Maintain eye contact and slowly back away toward a building, vehicle, or busy area.
• Protect small children so they won’t panic and run.
• Fight back if attacked. Many potential victims have fought back successfully with rocks, sticks, caps, jackets, garden tools, their bare hands, and even mountain bikes. Since a mountain lion usually tries to bite the head or neck, try to remain standing and face the animal.

Report all mountain lion attacks to 911. All mountain lion encounters and attacks, sightings in urban areas, property damage due to mountain lions or possession of a live mountain lion should also be reported to your local Arizona Game and Fish Department office (8 a.m. to 5 p.m., Monday - Friday excluding holidays). After hours and weekends, a radio dispatcher is available at (623) 236-7201

For more information, visit http://www.azgfd.gov/w_c/urban_lion.shtml

and another “interruption of service”

UPDATE- We’re back up, and I hope it sticks this time.

this blog was down on Saturday, back up on Sunday for a short while but went down again sometime Monday in the wee hours and is just now starting to come back. But it’s showing up in a very ragged and disarrayed format and so far it’s only available at > www.thetucsonfoothills.typepad.com < and not yet available at its main web address>  is now available at www.thetucsonfoothills.com

The problem is that typepad, the hosting platform for the blog, was apparently the target of a large hacker attack.

Thank you for your patience.

John Schneider

someone must have really liked this house

2355 E Miraval Segundo caught my eye because it sold today for $421,500 ($231/sf) in 3 days from a $425,000 list price. I’m sure the sellers are happy and I’ll bet the neighbors are thrilled.

Because $231/sf is kinda high for a house like this in Cat 8.  There’ve been 2 other sales in the last 6 months, one at $515,000 ($186/sf), the other at $745,000 ($189/sf) and it was completely, top to bottom, remodeled with very high quality materials and finishes, for $189/sf. Going back to last April there’ve been 7 sales in Cat 8 and the next highest was $208/sf for a home on La Brinca that was also totally remodeled.  

But the buyers wanted it and were willing to pay the price, and that’s up to them. And, surprisingly, it also appraised. Though I don’t see how it could have.

Shop around, do your homework and get to know what others have paid for similar homes in the same area that you’re looking. You want to look at sold prices, list prices don’t count because often they’re just wishful thinking.

2355 E Miraval Segundo  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty) link expires on 5/21/14

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home
                     ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, please call or email today for a confidential consultation.        John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

an exceptional contemporary Sante Fe

I’ve shown this home to two different buyers in the last few weeks and they both agreed that it’s exceptional. And though it wasn’t quite right for them for one reason or another, they were so impressed with the setting, the views, the design and the unstinting attention to quality and detail. And we all felt it was more than just very well priced, that it was a bargain. Particularly considering other much more ordinary homes that are selling at similar prices.

And so I’m stumped as to why it hasn’t sold. But since it didn’t quite work for my buyers, I thought I’d try and give it a little boost, and maybe even find a buyer who would like to call it home. 

Custom built by Mike Wachs, perhaps the best of the best of the handful of premier builders in town, my educated guess is they’ve got a lot closer to 2$$million in it than to the $1,295,000 ($243/sf) it’s now listed for.

Custom built 2002, masonry construction, 5327 sf, one story, (a few interior steps) 4 Beds/4 Baths + 2 half baths, 2 offices, pool/spa, huge 3 car garage, outdoor bar under covered patio adjacent to pool and absolutely gorgeous city views, in like-new condition. As lightly lived in as I’ve seen.

It’s not my listing and not even listed by Tierra Antigua, the brokerage I work for.
I just admire and appreciate homes that are well designed and built with superior quality.

2376 E Placita De La Victoria Tucson, AZ 85718 (link expires 8/30/14)
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                                ____________________________________________     

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, please call or email today for a confidential consultation.    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

it’s sort of a buyers market

Last year at this time there were;	This year at this time there are;
378 single family homes for sale	490 single family homes for sale
173 homes in contract	140 homes in contract
251 homes sold since Jan 1	180 homes sold since Jan 1
and 5 months of inventory	and 10 months of inventory

Because there is more supply and less demand - 30% more homes for sale and 19% fewer homes in contract and 28% fewer sold this year – it should be more of a buyers market this year than last year.

And last year at this time there was a very lean 5 months of inventory, i.e., a 5 month supply of homes for sale, whereas this year the supply has doubled to 10 months, which, in theory, puts us way deep into a buyers market. Which, with more to choose from and less competition,  should lead to lower prices. Would you settle for 2 out of 3.

Because with all of those pressures to drive prices DOWN, they’re still UP.

Last year - Average/median sold & $/sf	This year - Average/median sold & $/sf
$467,835/$381,000 @ $161/sf	$497,627/$409,000 @ $174/sf

So sold prices are UP 6.4% avg/7.3% med. and 8%/sf. How can that be?
With supply UP and demand DOWN, why would prices rise.
Fewer distress this year, maybe? Yep, that must be it.

Of the 251 sold last year 44 were distress sales (31 Reo’s 13 short sales)
Of the 180 sold this year 17 were distress sales (15 Reo’s, 2 short sales) 
Bingo!– 61% fewer.

Distress sales sell for cheap and they drag down overall sold price numbers. And with 61% fewer distress sales this year, and less drag on sold prices, it makes sense that sold prices are UP. 

So for an apples to apples comparison let’s eliminate the distress sales – doing so we end up with 207 normal sales last year and 163 this year.

And the sold prices;

Last year - Average/median sold & $/sf	This year - Average/median sold & $/sf
$488,934/$398,850 @ $168/sf	$513,584/$415,000 @ $177/sf

less than when distress sales are included, but they’re still UP - 5% avg/4% med and 5%/sf.

Go figure!

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

interruption of service

The good news is ‘we’re back up’. If you were trying to connect to this blog, but couldn’t, it was because of a denial of service attack on typepad, the service that hosts this blog.

Very sorry for the interruption.

John Schneider

yesterday’s contracts

6760 N Montezuma Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 - a very special home, a newer adobe built by Jim Grey in 2002 - has finally gone to contract after 334 days, now listed at $1,050,000 ($305/sf) after starting at $1,195,000 last May.

These newer adobes are rare but, apparently, buyers for them are rarer still. I figured this would’ve been gone in 3 months, but that was last year when it was listed in May, when things looked a bit more rosy. (listed by Long Realty)

On the other hand some lower priced homes are still flying off the shelf. 
6521 N Columbus Boulevard Tucson, AZ 85718, listed at $550,000 ($180/sf) is gone after just 3 days and, word is, there were 4 offers. (listed by Long Realty)

 

And 7151 N Lemmon Rock Place Tucson, AZ 85718, listed at $450,000 ($185/sf) also went in 3 days. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s)

In 2nd and 3rd place are 4540 N Scenic Mountain Drive Tucson, AZ 85750, listed at $459,000 ($153/sf), gone in 56 days, and 6043 E Country Club Vista Drive Tucson, AZ 85750, listed at $475,000 ($156/sf) which took 79 days for an acceptable offer. (both by Long Realty)

See them all HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

déjà vu, at least we’re not alone

From WSJ.com
By CONOR DOUGHERTY and NICK TIMIRAOS

Housing Market Slow to Hit Its Spring Stride
Expected Growth Remains Sluggish as Supply Issues Persist

A flurry of recent housing data suggests that the market's spring selling season is getting off to a slow start, a worrisome sign after a winter of expectations that warmer weather would rekindle growth.

Reports from local real-estate agent groups in some of the markets that were the first to rebound, including Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego, show year-over-year declines in March home sales. February data for pending home sales nationally—a barometer of early-spring activity—show a decline of 11% from a year ago.

And in markets around the country, fewer people are showing up at open houses. An index of home-buyer traffic in 40 U.S. markets compiled by Credit Suisse was down a little more than a third from March of last year. In some parts of the country, cold weather has put a damper on traffic.

"Overall, even after adjusting for weather, it has been worse than what most people expected," said Tom Lawler, an independent housing economist in Leesburg, Va.

The sluggish start to the spring home-buying season—a crucial period for sales because families typically want to lock into a school district by the end of summer—comes as investors cut back on purchases of homes that can be rented or flipped for a quick profit. Meanwhile, potential buyers are still adjusting to a sharp rise in both home prices and borrowing costs over the past year. With prices and mortgage rates up, the nation's median monthly home payment—including principal and interest—has risen 20% in the past year to about $900, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting.

The slow spring so far is in some ways a testament to just how swift the past two years of recovery have been. There are fewer distressed properties like foreclosures, and prices of those that remain are higher, so investors are buying fewer homes. At the same time, there has been a continued increase in the number of non-distressed purchases made by ordinary buyers and families, further reducing the inventory of homes for sale.

That has allayed economists' fears that the "shadow inventory" of unsold homes would choke off the recovery.

But there are now two trends at play that potentially could extend a springtime swoon into a summer slump: a dearth of properties for sale in some markets and an abundance of too-richly-priced homes in other markets.

A report released Tuesday by DataQuick, a San Diego research company, showed that Southern California home sales had their second-slowest March in two decades, as rising prices and a thin supply of homes damped sales.

In Phoenix, the supply of homes for sale is adequate, if not ample, but prices are keeping buyers at bay. There, sales of previously owned homes fell nearly 18% in March from a year earlier, while inventories rose 44% to a three-year high, according to the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service Inc.

With more inventory, potential buyers such as Sarah Coffeen can afford to be deliberate with their search.

Ms. Coffeen, 31 years old, has been looking for a home in the Phoenix area since January. Her hope is to find a single-family home in the $120,000 range, and until then she and her daughter are living with her parents to help save for a down payment.

Her wait may pay off. While the Phoenix market is still fairly competitive, the inventory of homes for sale has started to tick up, and price gains are slowing.

"I'm pretty much willing to take my time because so much stuff is coming on the market," said Ms. Coffeen, a paralegal. "Prices are definitely down from the fall. I don't know if that mini bubble burst…but homes seem more reasonable now."

Indeed, Phoenix has been one of the nation's hottest housing markets over the past two years, leading the nation in what has to this point been a strong recovery. Now—along with Las Vegas and the Inland Empire region of California that is east of Los Angeles—it is among those cities where many sellers are reducing prices.

For now, real-estate agents see a buyers' market that helps explain the slow spring so far.

Torrey McHale, Ms. Coffeen's real-estate agent in Phoenix, said that when he looks at listings data, he sees more homes for sale and less buyer activity. And when he hits the street with clients, it is harder to get them to close.

"It's been more difficult getting buyers under contract because if they don't like one house they'll just go onto the next," he said. "Last summer was a huge sellers' market. I'd walk into homes with buyers and there would already be three offers on the home. Listing agents and sellers got greedy and start raising prices really fast. I think they did overshoot and now it's kind of turned."

There’s more, graphs, charts and whatnot, read all about it – (a subscription to WSJ may be required)    Housing Market Slow to Hit Its Spring Stride

   _______________________________________________________________________

And for the latest on our real estate market here in the Catalina Foothills and the parallels to what’s happening elsewhere in the country, see > 
March home sales, Catalina Foothills  

1st Qtr. Home Sales in the Catalina Foothills

Catalina Foothills 1st Qtr. Home Sales at $1,000,000 +
                            
                       __________________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, please call or email today for a confidential consultation.    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

in contract last week, 4/7 – 4/13

From Monday April 7th through Sunday April 13th  22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills. link will expire on 5/15/2014

16 were priced from $179,900 to $595,000
4 from $649,000 to $895,000
1 at $1,100,000 & another at $2,395,000

a little something for nearly everyone,

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

                               __________________________________________ 

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, please call or email today for a confidential consultation.    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

lots to choose from in Cat 10

12 homes currently for sale priced from $785,000 to $1,685,000.
But not much is selling – just 2 sales since Jan 1, one at $815,000 ($212/sf) and one at $975,000 ($214/sf), which was a wonderful house at a bargain price.

And there’s also nothing in contract. So they’re sitting on about 21 months of inventory with no relief in sight.

And last year was also a clunker for Cat 10, with just 4 sales from a bottom scraping low of $386,000 – for the former sales office converted to a house but, nonetheless, still located cheek to jowl with the entry/exit gate – to a not very high high of $870,000 ($158/sf) for a home that needed a ton of updating. And that’s it, not one sale cracked the $million mark.

Yet, weirdly enough, 2012 was a very good year – 14 sales from $625,000 to $1,912,500, with half of them going for $1,050,000 to $1,912,500. WOW! And that’s more like a normal year for Cat 10, the trouble is we haven’t had another normal year in years. 

I think it’s safe to say that those 14 sales encouraged sellers, who’d been waiting in the wings for the market to turn up, to list their homes. And now it’s turned again, but not up.

There are 2 homes for sale that I think are special, not least of which because both are built by
La Quinta and designed by Michael Franks , that are also extremely well priced – one at $1,275,000 ($209/sf), the other at $1,299,000 ($233/sf), on classic Cat 10 hilltop lots with views and privacy. And there are 10 others, some attractively priced, others maybe not.

See them all here > Catalina Foothills Estates 10
this link will update continuously, from now until the cows come home, showing everything
for sale at the time you click it, and will never expire.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

                                       ___________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills,  please call or email today for a confidential consultation.    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

Catalina Foothills 1st Qtr. Home Sales at $1,000,000 +

Since the 1st Qtr. of 2009 sales at $1,000,000 + have hovered between 7 – 13 sales/1st Qtr – the lowest in years, while the # of homes for sale, 108 currently,  is way up there. 
If this is the new normal, and at 5 years running it sure looks like it, sellers will need to greatly scale back their expectations. The 2nd Qtr. is also a big one for upper-end sales, but will have to show tremendous improvement to makeup for a lackluster 1st Qtr. Prices that are more
in-line with the realities of the marketplace might be just the thing needed to move the needle.

And here are the 10 lucky winners who did manage to sell their homes in this 1st Qtr.
link will expire on 5/14/2014

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home
                                         ___________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills please call or email today for a confidential consultation.
John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

aren’t you glad you waited

6641 N Placita Arquilla has been on and off the market since 2006 when it was first listed for $1,989,000, and then dropped to $1,400,000, to $1,300,000 and on and on until today when, 
5 listings agents later, it showed up as a shiny new listing asking $649,000 ($144/sf).

Another glaring example of, “you can ask whatever you want” but it’s not going anywhere until buyers agree with what you’re asking.

6641 N Placita Arquilla  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)- link will expire on 5/13/14

In Coronado Foothills Estates – click link to see all the homes for sale in Coronado
this link will update continuously with new listings as they come to market and will never expire.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

Open Houses in the Catalina Foothills

Click Open Houses to see all that are scheduled for this weekend and listed in the Tucson MLS, from all Realtors® & brokers.

There are currently 59 listed from $274,014 to $1,799,000

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

a rare find for the Catalina Foothills

A sleek contemporary, but, sorry, it’s already gone. It sold today for $625,000 ($176/sf) from a $650,000 list in 5 days.

I went to see it within an hour of its hitting the MLS and tried to find a buyer for it, but no such luck.

It was built in 1978 and was showing some wear, and could use some freshening and fixing up here and there, but nothing huge. 

4341 E Coronado Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty) – link will expire on 5/11/14

Click Coronado Foothills Estates to see all the homes for sale in Coronado
this link will update continuously and never expire

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

another hit for Skyline CC

6741 N Saint Andrews Drive, listed for $1,100,000 ($272/sf) is in contract after just 70 days.

The timing doesn’t quite add up but this may be another fix-up and flip for Skyline, ground  zero for that sort thing in the foothills. The current owners bought in late 2011 for $600,00, when it was more or less vintage1977 throughout, and embarked on a big renovation and also added about 600sf. All of which could easily have taken a year or more. But it wasn’t listed until this January, 2 years later, so maybe they had no intention of flipping it but just couldn’t resist taking advantage of our HOT high-end market. Ha!

It went from this;

to this,

 

and from this,

to this,

 

and all through the house.

And it looks like it paid off, 70 days from listing to contract is lightning fast at this price, in this market.
6741 N Saint Andrews Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage 70202)
link will expire on 5/11/14

Click Skyline CC to see all the homes for sale in Skyline
this link will update continuously and never expire

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

the 1st born, the 2nd marriage and the 3rd listing agent

4990 N Camino Antonio went to contract today after 22 days, with agent # 3, after spending 550 days with agents 1 & 2. It’s just the way it goes sometimes. After 550 days, and no good offers, sellers tend to get realistic and soften up on their price. Meanwhile, agents 1 & 2 get all the blame, and agent #3, who wasn’t even in the picture, gets all the glory. It’s the luck of the draw.

4990 N Camino Antonio (sturdy and with good bones) –
went to contract today listed at $742,000 after starting 572 days and 2 listing agents ago at $900,000.

4990 N Camino Antonio Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

you can ask whatever you want

In Ventana C.C. 6251 N Whaleback Place sold for $1,150,000 in 2006 and was listed for the make-me-move price of $1,200,000 in 2012. But, not surprisingly, that didn’t cut it and after dropping to $850,000, and still no sale, it fell into foreclosure. And with mr. lender holding the  reins it was listed for $835,900 and quickly reduced to $829,900 and finally to $789,900, and Bingo!, it sold for $789,900.

6251 N Whaleback Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Keller Williams Southern Arizona 478306)
link will expire on 5/10/14

and here’s another.

In Skyline CC 5461 E Gleneagles Drive started in 2012 at $1,295,000 and sold today for $850,000 from a $950,000 asking price.

Buyers can afford to wait, time is on their side.

5461 E Gleneagles Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage 70202)
link will expire on 5/10/14

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

a buyer from San Francisco?

The foreclosure I mentioned a couple of weeks ago at 4665 N Quartz Hill Place is in contract after 16 days. At the time I mentioned it I hadn’t yet seen it in person, and, given the price, guessed that there might be a bidding war. And there may have been, but it took longer than I anticipated to get to contract – and when I saw it a day or 2 later and saw how steep the driveway really is I had 2nd thoughts on the bidding war. Who  knows, bidding war or not, it’s in contract now and for the right buyer it’s quite a deal.

2010 built contemporary, Kevin Howard design, 4325 sf, $649,000 ($150/sf), with elevator.

4665 N Quartz Hill Place Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty 472203)
- link will expire on 5/9/14

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

in contract last week, 3/31– 4/6

From Monday March 31st through Sunday April 6th a whopping 26 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills - the most we’ve seen in many moons.
(the link will expire on 5/9/14)

21 were priced from $245,000 to $549,900
5 from $649,900 to $900,000
0 from $1,000,000 & up

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

and possibly a new high for Pinnacle Ridge

A few weeks ago when 4303 E Pinnacle Ridge Place was listed for $950,000 ($268/sf) 
I questioned whether it would go at that price. And though it’s had a smallish price cut since then – to $895,000 ($253/sf) – and we don’t know the contract price, it is now in contract after just 22 days. And still higher priced, by a bunch  than anything in contract or sold recently in Pinnacle.

But, given the past performance and proven popularity of Pinnacle, it’s not the least bit earthshaking.

4303 E Pinnacle Ridge Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by CNN Realty Services, LLC 3136) link will expire on 5/8/14

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

 

 

big contract today

With patience, perseverance and plenty of price cuts, 4521 N Hacienda Del Sol, currently listed at $2,395,000 ($306/sf) has finally found a buyer.
Built 2008 and on the market ever since, 7,831 sf, 5 Beds/6 Baths + 2 half baths, 2 story w/elevator, pool/spa, 4 car, and the fixings. As mentioned, it was first listed in 08 when it was brand new spec and started out asking $4,295,000. And unlike many of the homes along Hacienda Del Sol this one is set way back from the road. So I don’t see that that would’ve been an issue. So maybe it was the price, you think.

4521 N Hacienda Del Sol , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

1st Qtr. Home Sales in the Catalina Foothills

If you’re wondering why you’re getting fewer showings and your home is sitting on the market, here’s why.

Sales are down. After 4 years of going up, sales are back down to where they were in 2010.
And there’s more competition too, last year at this time there were 396 homes for sale, today there are 518 – about the same number as in April 2010.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

in contract last week, 3/24–3/30

From Monday March 24th through Sunday March 30th 22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills.

15 were priced $239,000 to $499,000
4 from $685,000 to $965,000
3 from $1,100,000 to $1,525,000

finally, a fairly normal week for this time of  year.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

a new high at Villa Milano

If you’re not familiar with it, Villa Milan is a smallish subdivision of 1800 – 2400 sf homes and townhomes on small lots (0.11 acre +/-) within Sin Vacas. It made it’s debut in 2006  and while the homes were very nice the prices were also very high. And they had a hard time getting off the ground – and weirdly enough as the market went from bad to worse they raised their prices – and of course that didn’t cut it and ultimately it all came tumbling down – with a great many of the homes going to foreclosure and a number of others stopped in mid construction.

But today 7678 N Viale Di Buona Fortuna Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $611,000 ($252/sf), full list price. And that caught my eye. And while I hope they’re happy with their new purchase, given what homes have sold for in there in the last 5 years and the many distress sales, I can’t help wondering how anyone could justify plunking down $611,000 ($252/sf). But hey, it’s only money.

Since January 2009, 15 homes or townhomes sold in there for an average/median of $356,593/$340,000 @ $181/sf – 7 were distress sales – with the highest sale at $462,500 but the great majority in the $300’s and in the $170’s - $180’s/sf

This was a cash sale, so very likely no appraisal.

7678 N Viale Di Buona Fortuna Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

back to the drawing boards

6755 N Hole in the Wall Way in the Mountain Estates at Ventana CC, listed at $2.2,  went to contract 2 weeks ago, but fell out today.

It last sold for $2.2 in 2010 and has been on and off the market since 2012. Obviously it’s a royal pain when your house falls out of contract, but if you’ve been at it for a couple years, and you’re in the $2.2 price range – where very few buyers are flocking – chances are, you may be facing another long haul.

This was one of the two homes that went to contract in the Mountain Estates on the same day last month, and mentioned HERE - as an unprecedented event. So much for that.
The other one, 6921 E Rock Ledge Place, did go the distance and closed for $1.9 from a $2.495 list and mentioned HERE when it sold.

6755 N Hole in the Wall Way Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

targeted marketing

5764 N Camino Miraval Tucson, AZ 85718 is, to say the least, not your average foothills hacienda. And a listing agent’s first reaction might be, “OMG, how we gonna sell this”

 

But rather than marketing it as if it were just another foothills hacienda, the listing agent brought a targeted and attention getting twist to the mix of traditional listing pictures.
I’ll say.

And it worked, 55 days on the market and this very unique home is in contract. 
“Bravo!” to Michelle Hotckiss of RE/MAX Catalina Foothills Realty
5764 N Camino Miraval Tucson, AZ 85718

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

March home sales, Catalina Foothills

The good news is that home sales in March weren’t any lower than they were in February, but they’re weren’t any higher either. 

And just like February, sales for this March are lower than they were in March 2013, 2012 and 2011. February’s report is HERE

But for those homes that did sell in March, average sold prices jumped back up and median prices are up too, they are from February anyway.

So there we are, March, in, and out with a whimper.

And to make better sense of what’s happening with prices, here’s a chart showing quarterly prices from the1st Qtr 2012 thru the current Qtr.

So prices are drifting up. And it’s interesting, this phenomena of falling sales and rising prices reminds me of 2006 when sales fell about 25% from 2005 but prices continued to rise. Until they didn’t.

Also, the number of homes going to contract has risen during the last few weeks and that will lead to higher sales in April. So maybe this season is just a late bloomer, aha.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

The latest scam alert from the Sheriff's Dept........

 

The Pima County Sheriff’s Department would like to alert the public of the latest scam in our area. The suspect claims to be Lt. Brown from the Pima County Sheriff’s Department. He tells the victims they have fines for unpaid tickets, outstanding warrants, or missed jury duty that needs to be taken care of immediately. The suspect informs the victims a warrant will be issued for their arrest if they do not make their payments quickly. The victims are told to purchase a Green Dot card for the amount owed and call him to provide the number on the back of the card. The suspect’s phone number returns to a pre-paid cellular out of Casa Grande.

The Sheriff’s Department has received numerous reports about this scam in the last week. Here are a few tips to prevent you from becoming a victim: • Do not give out personal information over the phone

            • Contact the Sheriff’s Department to see if someone called you

            • The Sheriff’s Department does not collect fines for unpaid tickets If you become a victim of this scam, call 9-1-1 and make a report. -

2 contracts

One quick, the other not
Someone got a lot of house for the money in Cimarron, 5665 E Paseo Cimarron Tucson, AZ 85750 is in contract listed at $825,000 ($188/sf) and on the market just 28 days.
(listed by Long Realty) 4,390 sf, north/south orientation, 4 Beds/3 Baths, 1.9 acres, 1 story, 3 car, pool/spa on a nice lot at the north edge of Cimarron.

 

And in Pima Canyon 7598 N Mystic Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718, range price listed from
$900,000 – $950,000 is in contract. (ever wonder why anyone would offer more than $900, me too) Mystic Cyn has been at it for 369 days, and I’m guessing that may have something to do with its location at the far southwest edge of PC and adjacent to a TEP booster station. But the right price can go a long way to alleviating those concerns.

This was a spec home that made its debut in late 2006 for $1,400,000 and in baby steps was eventually reduced to $974,000 and sold to the current owners for $875,000 in 2010. (listed by Long Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

a foreclosure

In Eleven Arches, 3490 E Camino A Los Vientos, now offered for 1,199,900 ($165/sf) courtesy of BofA. This has been for sale, on and off, since 2005 when it started at $3.2, didn’t sell and was bumped to $3.6. And then in a recent last ditch effort it was listed as a short sale for $950,000, but still it didn’t sell.

All that time for sale and I’ve never seen it, but I’ve never been a big fan of Eleven Arches and haven’t had any clients who were either. Eleven Arches opened to great fanfare in 05 (I think), you know the usual ra-ra, but mostly it fizzled.

Is this a good deal, perhaps. If you’re looking for a 2 story, 7300 sf, that’s close to Hacienda del Sol Rd, has an indoor pool and was built as a spec during the boom. Go for it.

It looks like BofA is going to get creamed on this one, the tax records show $2.8 in mortgages from Countrywide.

5171 N Hacienda Del Sol Road , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Top Gun Realty 5106) link expires 5/1/14

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home