The Catalina Foothills

ready for summer?

the weather guru’s are predicting we’ll hit 100 this weekend – the official start of a Tucson summer. 

And, ready or not, real estate activity in the foothills is going to slow down during the next few months, and the slow down will be most noticeable for upper-end homes.
Fewer buyers, fewer showings and fewer offers – it’s a Tucson summer thing.

Here’s a snapshot of where we are as we head into the triple digits;

Price	# for sale	Avg. CDOM	# sold	Avg. CDOM	MOI
$0 – $999k	393	122	267	87	7.3
$1,000,000+	90	260	19	228	24

  # sold is YTD  1/1 – 5/31/14
MOI is Months Of Inventory (lower is better, well, for sellers anyway)
CDOM is Cumulative Days on Market (which includes re-listings within 30 days)

But aside from being slower there’s no predicting how much slower the market will be over the next few months. There’s a lot of momentum for lower priced homes, they’re selling well and, albeit with some slowdown, may continue to do well.

But there’s not much momentum at $1.0+ and last year was pretty much the same.
Last year 21 homes sold for $1,000,000+ from Jan 1 thru May 30th, and in the next 4 months - June 1 thru Sept 30th - 4 sold. The heat is on.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

want a faster deal for more money, set a deadline

From WSJ.com
By SANETTE TANAKA

When Deadlines Help Sell Houses

Want to get people moving? Set a due date. In real estate, deadlines bring results—and high returns.

So far this year, 58% of home listings with published offer deadlines sold above list price, according to an analysis of 37 major metropolitan markets in the U.S. by real-estate brokerage Redfin. Listings with offer deadlines also averaged 31 days on the market, compared with 61 days for listings without published deadlines.

Published offer deadlines—where real-estate agents cite a specific due date for offers in the listing and marketing materials—are rare. Less than 4% of U.S. listings include a deadline, according to the Redfin data, and most of those are written in private agent-to-agent comments instead of public listing descriptions.

In hot markets like San Jose and Oakland in California, more than 20% of listings in 2014 had deadlines, according to Redfin. In the 37 markets analyzed, offer deadlines are 89% more common in listings priced between $500,000 and $1 million when compared with homes priced under $500,000.

"As a buyer's agent, I have been one of 40 offers. It's scary, and it's exciting," says Abby Wentworth, a Redfin agent in San Francisco.

Offer deadlines are typically short—just a few days—and appeal to sellers because they can evaluate all offers at once. Setting a deadline expresses confidence in a property and price, and in some cases, can spark a bidding war.

Redfin examined for-sale listings in its coverage area of 37 metro markets from Jan. 1, 2009, through April 26, 2014, excluding foreclosures, short sales and other bank-owned homes. The brokerage searched keywords like "bid," "offer" and "best" used in conjunction with words like "due" and "deadline" followed by a date or day of the week to determine listings published with offer deadlines.

People tend to delay making decisions, but deadlines help them focus and act, says Dan Ariely, a professor of behavioral economics at Duke University and a Wall Street Journal contributor. The more public a deadline is, the more pressure people feel to make decisions, he adds.

The problem with real-estate deadlines is that they aren't binding. Agents can accept offers at any point during the listing and many do so.

"It's frustrating for everyone," says Rebecca Schumacher, an agent with Sotheby's International Realty in San Francisco. "It's an embarrassment to the agent representing those buyers, and it's not good for agent-to-agent relationships."

Hannah Driscoll, a Redfin agent who represents buyers in Boston, says one of her buyers recently decided to submit an early offer for a two-bedroom condo listed for $950,000. "We hit it with everything we had—$15,000 over asking, waived mortgage and inspection contingencies, and we showed a preapproval [letter] that showed they were strong buyers," she says. After a bit of back and forth, and an additional $10,000 from the buyer, the seller accepted before the offer deadline. "It's a seller's market, and sellers can choose whichever buyer they want," Ms. Driscoll says.
__________________________________________________________________________

Lower priced homes in the foothills are selling well and for the right home, particularly for a new listing, this could work. Or, if it’s a higher priced listing and the seller is ready to make a drastic price cut that puts it below market, it could help spur offers and maybe a bidding war.

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

two out of three

Listed for $549,900 ($204/sf) in Paloma Ridge, 5740 N Winding Woods Place is in contract after 238 days. And there are 3 others for sale that have been at it nearly as long.

And these are popularly priced homes we’re talking about, listed from $399 to $549k, a price where homes are selling very well. And they’re newer homes too, and more buyers want newer, built from 2008 to 2010 by AF Sterling, which has an excellent and well deserved reputation for building quality homes.  So what’s missing.

Paloma Ridge has struggled right from the start, and undoubtedly a good part of that struggle is due to its busy location bordering Sunrise Dr west of Hacienda del Sol Rd, with nonstop traffic.

One home did sell earlier this year, (the one with the star) and it sold in 25 days. But it’s set much further back from Sunrise and was listed for $499 and sold for $493k ($163/sf).
The 3 for sale + the one in contract are much closer to Sunrise and listed from $174 to $225/sf.

But you never know. Last September a buyer plunked down $670,000 ($222/sf) for a home that is the exact same model, same size, same-same, but with more lavish upgrades, as the one sold for $493,000 ($163/sf). And lucky them, $670,000 is the highest sale price ever in Paloma Ridge. (through the MLS anyway, when it first opened AF Sterling sold direct to buyers – cutting out listing agents, until the struggling began)

5740 N Winding Woods Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/19 – 5/25

From Monday May 19th through Sunday May 25th  (a measly) 14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills. (link will expire on 6/27/14)

10 were priced from $205,000 to $549,900
4 from $600,000 to $995,000
and that’s it! and fewer than during the same week last year

Meanwhile there are 484 for sale, including 91 at $1,000,000+

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

is it newer vs. older in Ventana CC

In Ventana CC, 6410 N Thimble View Place, built in 2012 and listed 26 days ago went to contract yesterday listed at $1,345,000 ($380/sf). And given its short time to contract we can assume the offer was reasonably close to list price.

How does that square with other homes for sale in that price range in Ventana, where
upper-end buyers have not been knocking down the doors lately.

Bookending Thimble View’s price by $250k there are 7 homes listed from $1,100,000 to $1,600,000, just 1 in contract(Thimble View) , and nothing sold since 1/1/12014. hmmm

The 7 for sale have been on the market an average of 152 days (with some as high as 264 & 466 days) vs. Thimble View sealing a deal in 26 days - the last one listed but the first to contract. And at $380/sf it’s also listed at the highest $$/sf price, by quite a bit. The next highest is $322/sf, then $289/sf, then down-down from there.

Who can say for sure but maybe it’s because TV is newer, built in 2012 and move-in ready. The others are older, mostly from the 1990’s.

6410 N Thimble View Place Tucson, AZ 85750 
(listed by Long Realty  (link to expire 6/27/14)

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

was it just the price

In Pima Canyon, 1347 E Desert Garden Drive was relisted on 5/16 for $995,000 ($216/sf) and went to contract 6 days later.

I say relisted because it had been listed before, with the same broker but a different listing agent, and had been at it for 352 days with no sale at $1,149,000. (down from $1,174,900 & $1,225,000)

But the new listing agent also had new pictures taken and a bit of staging done for the new listing,  (click photo for larger image)

           New Listing                                                       Old Listing

Which of the two has you rushing out the door to see it in person. 

Anyway, another one down in PC where there are now just 3 for sale, 3 in contract and 4 sold since Jan 1, for a very lean 3.5 MOI.

1347 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718   (link to expire on 6/23/14)
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage 70202)

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

welcome to the neighborhood

According to Realty Trac, the leading foreclosure site, 5128 N Calle Ladero is headed to a foreclosure auction, again. Yes again, this will the 2nd time around for 5128. 
It was built in 2007 as a brand new spec home, on a lot that was recently split from a nearby Joesler estate, and before you knew it there it was all shiny and new

and complete with cozy guest house, asking $1,650,000 ($384/sf).

Fast forward 18 months and it sold for $920,000 as a foreclosure, with the added distinction of being one of the very first foreclosures to show its face in the foothills. 

Fast forward again, to last July when it was listed for $975,000, dropped to $925,000 and expired unsold at $899,000 this January. When, I’m guessing, mr lender made his moves.

And I don’t know if it had anything to do with its demise but 5128 was, and is, about as out of place in that neighborhood as could possibly be. As I mentioned it was built on land split from a 1930’s Joesler estate.

It’s on Calle Ladero just north of Calle La Vela, which is the birthplace, the crossroads and the heart & soul of Joeslers in the old foothills. Homes like these that have been there for 70+ years

Simple, graceful, charming homes that were built for the desert.

 

I’m sure the neighbors were fit to be tied, but what could they do, the cc&r’s in Catalina Foothills  Estates had expired and with them went the prohibition against lot splits and any  sort of architectural oversight of new construction.

And for guidance, Realty Trac estimates its value at $1,008,028 and expects an opening bid of $690,000. I say it gets $700,000, tops.

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

supply and demand in the Catalina Foothills

Because the Catalina Foothills market varies so much from one area or subdivision to another, whether you’re buying or selling it’s important to understand the market in the specific areas that are of interest to you. To help with that here’s a snapshot of how the market is doing in some of the more popular subdivisions in the Catalina Foothills.

Included is the # of single family homes currently for sale, the # in contract, and the # sold from January 1st thru May 15 - with the resulting MOI (months of inventory). A handy-dandy guide to supply and demand in much of the Catalina Foothills.

Also, you can click any of the subdivision names to see all the homes currently for sale, along with those that are in-contract as Active Contingent, the first stage of escrow. 

Subdivision	# for sale	# in contract	# sold	MOI
Shadow Hills	10	4	5	9
Skyline Bel Air	6	2	5	5+
Fairfield/Sunrise	6	2	9	3
Villages of Ventana	4	1	3	6
Las Alturas	1	1	2	2+
Flecha Caida	5	3	4	6
Coronado Foothills	11	4	6	8+
Foothills Clusters	4	2	6	3
Cimarron	7	5	8	4
Catalina Fthls Est 1-9	28	15	12	10+
Catalina Fthls Est 10	13	1	2	29
Sabino Mountain	14	3	6	10+
Alta Vista	13	2	4	15
Cobo Catalina Hills	2	0	1	9
Bellas Catalinas	4	0	0	?
Cobblestone	5	1	0	?
Finisterra	4	1	0	?
the Canyons	5	0	1	22+
Pima Canyon	5	2	4	6
La Puerta	0	0	1	0
Pontatoc Canyon	3	0	2	7
Pinnacle Ridge	1	2	1	4+
Sin Vacas	4	5	3	6
Hacienda del Sol Est.	5	0	2	11
Bonita Ridge	6	0	3	9
Skyline CC	13	2	8	7+
La Paloma CC	25	3	19	6
Ventana CC	36	5	12	13+
Totals	240	66	129	8.4

And while there are many more subdivisions in the foothills, it turns out that this is a pretty fair representation of the foothills market.

Because the Totals for the # for sale, in contract and sold are almost exactly 50% of the entire foothills market – where there are 479 for sale, 138 in contract and 258 sold since Jan 1.
A nifty coincidence.

For most of the subdivisions noted, for instance, Shadow Hills, Pinnacle Ridge, Foothills Clusters, etc., etc. etc., the supply/demand picture is accurate because home prices in those subd’s fall within a reasonably narrow band. But in others, like Catalina Fthls Est, Skyline CC, La Paloma, Ventana and Sabino Mountain, home prices run the gamut from below $500k up to $1, $2 and $3million or more. And there’s a night n’ day difference between how $500k homes and $$million+ homes are selling. So they need to be evaluated by price range as well.

Click the Market Snapshot tab at the top of the page for a view of the foothills market broken down by price range (though not by subdivision) and you’ll see what I mean.

And to see how things have changed since early March – some areas for the better, others not - check out the identical post I did on March 7th Catalina Foothills real estate activity by subdivision

Happy Shopping,

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                                ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor® who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation. 
                    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

in contract last week, 5/12 – 5/18

From Monday May 12th through Sunday May 18th  24 single family homes went to contract
in the Catalina Foothills. (link will expire on 6/21/14)

20 were priced from $275,000 to $549,500 
1 at $820,000  
3 tightly grouped from $1,099,000 to $1,149,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

just what the doctor ordered

a new listing in Cat10, where there are now 14 for sale, 0 in contract and 2 sold since Jan 1.

But at $179/sf, it’s the lowest $$/sf listing in Cat 10,

5391 N Camino Sumo, 1.56 acres, built 1988, 4745 sf, 5 Beds/4 Baths/masonry construction/pool/3 car, with guest house – $850,000. May need some updating.

5391 N Camino Sumo  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Homesmart  Advantage Group)

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

what’s special

If you’re a fan of newer adobe construction, which is an almost extinct craft in the foothills, this may be right up your alley. 3039 E Placita Los Siete Adobes was listed the other day for $785,00 ($327/sf). Pricey, but special, this is one of seven Jim Gray adobes built around 2003 – 04 at the north end of Campbell Ave south of Skyline. (listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

2402 sf, 3 Beds/2 Baths/2 car, 1/4 acre lot, exquisite craftsmanship, 16” adobe walls, stained concrete floors, big beams, seldom available. This one sold as short sale a few months ago for $615,000, a very good deal. The next most recent sale was last July when the house next door, which is virtually identical, sold for $725,000 ($301/sf).

At the other end of the style spectrum, a top to bottom real contemporary,
7164 N Mercer Spring, with absolutely astonishing views of the entire valley. ( the photos offer just a glimpse of the views) (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s)

Built 2005, 5876 sf, 4 Beds/5 Baths, 3 car, 1 acre +/-, pool/spa, $1,895,000 ($322/sf).

When you get up high like this you often have to sacrifice something, and often that something is a flat, roomy lot for knock-your-socks-off views. It goes with the territory, so to speak.

And at the other-other end of the style spectrum, 901 Magee Rd, an authentic all masonry stucco hacienda on 6+ acres. A privately gated masterpiece. (listed by Long Realty)
(and, IMHO, more impressive in person than in the photos)

 

7,294 sf, 7 Beds/7 Baths/4 car, 6 acres backing up to the Coronado Nat’l Forest,

sold in 2009 for $3,200,000, now available for $2,400,000 ($329/sf) with a bunch of improvements thrown in free.

  
And yes, it’s been on the market before and so far has failed to sell. And that’s surprising to me, but, nevertheless, it doesn’t diminish how very special it is.

None of these are my listings, and no one paid me or offered other irresistible inducements to mention them. They’re only here because I think they’re special. (the links to the listings will expire on 6/19/14)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                                ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation. 
                    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

spec homes this year

Spec homes were wildly popular and sold like hot dogs at a ball game during the boom years. Jumbo hot dogs that were going for $1,000,0000 to $2,500,000 and up. And they also sold very well when the market tanked, but for a different reason. Between 09 and 2011 many of them had reached the end of their ropes and turned to short sales and foreclosures and sold for a fraction of their boom-time prices.

And during those years when the smoke was clearing construction of spec homes pretty much came to a halt. And then last year builders started dipping their toes in the water by offering
homes to-be-built. This is where the builder or investor has the lot and the plans for a house ‘to be built’ on a particular lot for a specified price. The buyer signs a contract and puts down a deposit and makes progress payments as the house is built. But they’re not spec homes.

So after a few years of an improving market - and with high expectations and the smell of $$$ in the air for this year - builders started swinging their hammers again. And voila, we now have 5 new spec homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills, all built and ready to go. But this year’s market has not turn out as hoped. And while 5 for sale is barely a pittance compared to the glory days, it may still be too many and too soon. We’ll see, but the track record’s not too promising.

Just 2 specs have sold in the last 6 months, and one did well and the other did not.
1993 E Quiet Canyon Drive, in Pima Canyon, sold in 105 days for $1,370,000 from a $1,425,000 list. You can’t beat that with a stick, or a hammer. 

The other spec, in Skyline CC, was listed in September 2012 for $1,595,000 and didn’t sell until this March when it was reduced to $1,250,000 and sold for $900,000 ($170/sf).
And get this, whoever was behind this project paid $672,500 for the lot in 2004.

Building specs is a risky business because you’re guessing what the market will be 18 months or more down the line. And once you start swinging those hammers, you’re committed.
And so now we have 5 for sale and 2 sold in the last 6 months. And this is the middle of May.  (link will expire on 6/17/14)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

how to make money when you buy

4151 E La Paloma Drive, a 1976 burnt adobe, sold for $715,000 in 2006, whereupon the new owner renovated, remodeled and then relisted it in 2009 for $1,000,000. And, good renovation, but bad timing, so between then and 2011 the price was cut and cut again til it reached $849,000, but still no sale. And it left the market only to reappear 6 months later listed at $400,000, yes, $400,000, as a short sale. Hard to figure, but that’s what happened. And of course that was a screaming deal so it was immediately snapped up for $355,000 – 50% of its 06 sale, and with all the remodeling thrown in for free.

for example, it had gone from this in 2006;

to this, for the  2012 sale;

And like that, pretty much all through the house, talk about making a killing.

Well it’s back on the market today, with a new pool and assorted other goodies, asking 949,500 ($258/sf).  And if you’re not familiar with La Paloma Drive, it’s one of the highest streets in the foothills with some of the most magnificent views. City views from the south side of the street and Catalina mountain views from the north,

like this, and better;

4151 E La Paloma Drive Tucson, AZ 85718   for some inexplicable reason the link will expire on 6/15/2014 (listed by Long Realty)

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

throwing in the towel, or taking a summer break

6600 N Eagle Ridge Drive, up in the Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates called it quits today. On the market since November 2012, when it started out at $2,675,000, the listing was cancelled today at $2,250,000. It’s ancient history but they also took a swing at it in 06 asking $5.150 and in 07 at $3.650. Neither of which snagged a buyer. (listed by Long Realty)

Either way, given the track record for sales up there, the sellers are probably not missing out on much by taking a break. One sale this year at $1.9 from a $2.495 list, and, as things go, that was a very good sale. And just one sale last year, and pretty cheap for the Mtn Estates, at $1.375 that started out 2 years earlier at $1.899. And that’s it.

Meanwhile there are 7 for sale from $1.5 to $7.0mil, and most have been at it for many moons.

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

an awfully good sale for Skyline CC

6741 N Saint Andrews Drive, on the market for a measly 70 days and listed for $1,100,000 sold today for $1,000,000 (248/sf). Once upon a time this was a tired older home (built 1977) that last sold in 2011 for $600k. It was then gutted, rehabbed and had a 600 sf addition, bringing it to its current 4040 sf. Click here > for a then and now comparison <

6741 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718  link will (for some inexplicable reason) expire on 6/14/14
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

And click here > to shop all the homes for sale in Skyline CC < this link will never expire and will update continuously, showing all the new listings and dropping those that have sold or left the market. 

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

the incredible shrinking inventory

As the season kicks off in January sellers begin to list their homes and they continue to do so into February, March and even April. But as May rolls around, and the season begins to wind down, we see fewer new listings and the number of homes for sale begins to shrink.

We’re now at about 470 single family homes for sale vs. mid March when there were about 520, the high for the season. And I expect that as spring turns to summer we’ll see even fewer homes for sale. Because, in addition to seeing fewer new listings, some sellers who didn’t manage to sell during the season will pull their homes from the market during the slower summer months.

But even with less to choose from buying in the off season has it’s advantages. With fewer buyers on the prowl, and therefore fewer showings, sellers may be more receptive to an offer that they may not have seriously considered during the season.

In May 2008 I wrote about buying in the off season > buying snow blowers in July < and it still applies today. 

Also, for a glimpse at where the foothills market was in May 08, see > January - May home sales in the Tucson Foothills <

Cheerio!

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in Foothills Clusters

3451 E Nugget Canyon Place sold today for $320,000 ($177/sf)  from $326,000 list in 25 days.
And there’s no doubt that it sold at this price based on the lot. And it’s a terrific lot, end of cul de sac, with very nice mountain views from a north facing backyard. But while the house is nice enough, it needs updating – kitchen, baths, windows, etc - yet the buyers paid as much for it, in $$/sf, as other homes in the Clusters that have been updated have sold for recently.  
Sold prices this year run from $140/sf to $177/sf – with this at the tippy-top – and with little margin for error in the Clusters.

That makes 6 sold this year, plus 3 in contract, and 4 homes for sale for a tidy 3 months of inventory.

3451 E Nugget Canyon Place  Tucson, AZ 85718  link will expire on 6/13/14
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty)

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that was quick,

Listed in Eleven Arches just 43 days ago at $1,199,900, and quickly reduced to $1,099,900, 3490 E Camino A Los Vientos, the last hurrah of the great wave of boom time spec homes, has gone to contract - thanks to Bank Of Ny Mellon, who finally stepped in in March.

But they had to make up for some lost time. You see Los Vientos has been on the market since 2005 when it debuted at $3,200,0000, and failed to sell, and was raised to $3,600,000, and failed to sell, and so on and so forth, until mr lender took the reins. But they’re not getting off scot free either, it looks like they had to eat a $2,450,000 mortgage for the privilege.

3490 E Camino A Los Vientos , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Top Gun Realty)

The Eleven Arches subdivision was carved from land that originally belonged to a 15,000sf Joesler built in the 1930’s on 200 acres. The house, named Eleven Arches, is still standing, but the 200 acres has been whittled down to 5 acres.  (mentioned HERE at the end of a long winded piece I did in 2008)

And a gorgeous La Quinta at 3440 E VIA ALCALDE is also in contract after just 14 days, listed at $1,149,000 after selling in 07 for $1,450,000.  And it’s not a foreclosure, so no meddling from mr lender.

3440 E VIA ALCALDE  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/5 – 5/11

28 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills from Monday May 5th through Sunday May 11th. Which is probably the most we’ve seen this year. the link will expire on 6/12/114

20 were priced from $235,000 to $599,000
7 from $649,000 to $995,000
and 1 mega deal at $2,495,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

the quandary of falling sales & rising prices

Here are a couple of charts that track single family home sales and sold prices for the 4 months of January – April, from 2004 to 2014.

The first chart shows the number of homes sold.

And as you can see sales peaked in 05 and dropped steeply in 06  (-21%) and continued to drop thru 09, when they bottomed (at -57%). And then they rose nicely from 2010 thru 2013, only to drop -25% during this Jan – April.

 

And this chart shows average/median sold prices during that same period.
Notice that even though sales dropped 21% in 06, prices rose 29% avg/16% median in 06.
But those were very different times. Mortgages were there for the taking with few questions asked, distress sales had yet to even make an appearance, unemployment was around 4.4%, and in general the mood was upbeat. And there was a firm belief that real estate always goes up, so what’s to worry. 

Not so today. But, nevertheless, we’re seeing a similar phenomenon. Sales are down -25% from the same period in 2013, yet sold prices are up 6% avg/7% median.

It’s not nearly as dramatic a price rise as occurred in 05 – 06, but it’s still hard to figure. Because now you must actually qualify for a mortgage, distress sales have blazed a path thru the Catalina Foothills touching the lives of many, unemployment is much higher and in general the mood is one of extreme caution. And we’ve all learned the hard way that real estate doesn’t always go up.

So with overall sales down –25% from 2013, and upper end sales down -41% from 2013 – and, unlike the overall market, 2013 was not a banner year for sales at $1.0mil+. Not a wee bit, it was, in fact, the slowest year for $1.0mil+ sales since 2003, what’s next.

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How to Sell Quickly in a Slow Market

In Coronado Foothills Estates, 6521 N Columbus Boulevard sold for $783,500 in 2006. The new owners then remodeled the kitchen and baths, new cabs, counters, appliances, etc., new AC and other fix-ups here and there and listed it 5 days ago for $550,000 (-29% less than what they paid, GULP!) and, yep, it’s in contract.

6521 N Columbus Boulevard Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty) link will expire on 6/10/14

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

downturn, what downturn

In La Paloma Estates, 5969 N Camino Preciado sold in the carefree days of 2003 for $1,600,000 and was listed in the much gloomier days of 2008 for $1,799,000, and, after 6 years, 4 listing agents and numerous price cuts, it finally sold yesterday for $1,058,000. 
To a very patient and savvy buyer.
5969 N Camino Preciado Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

One could easily look at this and wonder what the heck were the owner and listing agent thinking when they priced it at $1.799mil in 08.

But they weren’t the only ones doing their best to ignore the gloomy reality of the falling market, and may well have been influenced by a campaign from the NAR, National Association of Realtors®, that at that very time was loudly touting real estate as a great investment – to the detriment of all. Remember those days, “it’s a great time to buy and sell a home” 

From WSJ.com
from deep in the dusty archives of January 2008

NAR Campaign Touts Real Estate as a Great Investment

Is it just us, or does the National Association of Realtors’ new public awareness campaign –- launched earlier this month – seem just a tad out of whack?

As home prices slide and some debt-straddled homeowners lose their homes to foreclosure, the trade group is pushing the concept that buying a house is nothing but a sure-fire, winning investment.

In a NAR television ad that is now running, the trade group maintains: “A home isn’t just a great place to raise a family, it’s also the key to building long-term wealth. On average, the value of a home nearly doubles every 10 years,” the ad says.

It’s a “very misleading statement,” said James R. Webb, director of the Center for Real Estate Brokerage and Markets at Cleveland State University and a professor of finance.

Continue reading - NAR Campaign Touts Real Estate as a Great Investment
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I also mentioned it on the blog back then -  NAR bashing

The NAR took a lot of heat for that, as well they should have. And as a result they seem to have mended their ways, and these days, when they do offer an opinion, it is a much more cautious and realistic appraisal of the market. And with no sure-fire promises.

But for many buyers, sellers and various real estate people, the NAR’s patently false rah-rah campaign was just the thing to allow them to continue to ignore reality and keep on chanting, downturn,  what downturn.

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

villages 1,2, 4 & 5 at the villages of La Paloma

This is a newer single family home community developed and built by AF Sterling Builders in the early to mid 2000’s. It’s very popular with snowbirds, 2nd home owners – newer homes (1900 – 3000sf), small lots, low care, gated, central foothills location close to everything, with homes in the $400 to $700k price range. What’s not to like. And except for Placita Pajaro, on the north side of La P, there’s nothing else quite like it in the foothills.

When it was first built it sold out in the blink of an eye at average/median sold prices of $533,732/$520,000. Then, during the downturn of 09 – 2012, it took a hit, but less so than other areas, with the average/median dropping to $476,641/$452,500, -11% & –13%. While other areas were easily down 25% and more.

And now, during the last 6 months, 6 homes have sold at an average/median of $527,033/$545,000. So it’s back to where they were during the boom years of 03 – 2006. 

It caught my eye again today because a home in there went to contract after just 6 days on the market. Currently there are just 3 for sale, 1 in contract and 6 sold in the last 6 months.
Link will expire on 6/8/14

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

this Friday in the Catalina Foothills

John W. Kline's custom Designed Spanish inspired masterpiece in Skyline CC dropped $400 thou today, to $2,995,000 ($443/sf). 6700 N Saint Andrews Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Lynn Kline Realty)

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In Sin Vacas, 2457 E Calle Sin Condena, which went to contract 2 weeks ago after just 9 days on the market, and subsequently fell out, is now back in. You can’t keep a good house down, not even in a crappy market. 2457 E Calle Sin Condena Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

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And, surprise-surprise, for some, bigger is still better. 
5600 N Via Elena, a 10,318 sf, 6 acre estate, listed at $2,495,000 ($242/sf), went to contract today. 5600 N Via Elena Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Sales of homes at this size are pretty rare. Just 2 at 10,000sf or larger have sold in the foothills since January 08. One in Skyline CC and one in Finisterra, and both of them were foreclosures that had been on the market forever.
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Also rare, and at long last, 6760 N Montezuma Drive has sold. This time for $975,000 ($284/sf), which seems about right, considering. This the Jim Grey adobe – a very special home - up in Coronado Foothills that has been on the market much longer than I thought it would.
But that’s 2014 for you. It last sold in 02 for $828,000 and was listed last May for $1,195,000 and eventually reduced to $1,050,000, which did the trick.

6760 N Montezuma Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty
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And up in Sin Vacas someone entered into a contract for a home ‘to be built’. The is where the builder or investor has the lot and the plans for a house ‘to be built’ on a particular lot for a specified price, in this case $750,000 for 2706sf on a .97  acre lot, comes out to $277/sf.

It’s a custom/spec home hybrid, where everyone gets and gives something. The builder takes a much smaller risk than building it and waiting and waiting for a buyer to come along all the while financing their creation and watching their profits dribble away. And along the way the buyer gets to nag the builder about this and that and to choose the finishes they like and maybe even make some modifications to the overall plan. But they do have to cool their heels for the time it takes to build it.

7316 N Camino Sin Vacas Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

I’m sorry to say that all links will expire on 6/8/14. It’s just the way it is.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

more buyers prefer newer homes

A brand new spec home was listed today in Cat 10, where there hasn’t been a new home for sale in years. (there was 1 in 2011 and it sold in 1 day for full list price, $1,400,000) 

And now we have 4675 N Via De La Granja. 4934 sf, 4 Beds/3 Baths + 3 half Baths, exercise room, Pool/Spa, 3 Car, along with Subzero, Wolf, Travertine floors listed for $1,695,000 ($343/sf) in Cat 10. Where already there are 12 homes for sale – but they’re all older, built from 1990 to 2001 – and which, so far, have failed to bring buyers to the table.

So we’ll see if new trumps older, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if it does.

4675 N Via De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

                           ____________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation. 
                    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

"What, me worry?"

Single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills are down for the 1st 4 months of this year vs. last year and the year before, and also the year before that.  And they are just a hair’s breadth higher than 2010. 2010!!!

 

But we can take some solace in knowing that it’s not just us.
According to Yahoo.com “… housing has the blahs in 2014 …”

Why the housing market is suddenly struggling
from Yahoo.com

For most of 2013, it looked as if a robust housing recovery was underway. Since housing is a huge part of the overall economy, that bred hope for stronger growth in 2014, along with the hiring and spending that ought to come with it.

But housing has the blahs in 2014, prompting concern that the 2013 spurt may have been a false spring driven by temporary factors or a misreading of events. The latest data show sales of new homes down 13% year over year and sales of existing homes — which is most of them — down 8%. Applications for new mortgages recently hit a 14-year low, as potential buyers seem to be backing away.

Continue reading; Why the housing market is suddenly struggling

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in contract last week, 4/28 – 5/4

From Monday April 28th through Sunday May 4th  20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills.

14 are priced from $229,500 to $569,500
5 from $649,000 to $789,900
1 lonely contract at $1,049,000
And that’s it!

An fair to middling week for the low to mid price range, with barely a scrap for the upper-end.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

the bigger they are …

Completed in 2008 as a brand new spec listed for $4,295,000 ($548/sf), 4521 N Hacienda Del Sol sold today for $1,900,000 ($243/sf) after dropping to $2,395,000 in March.

4521 N Hacienda Del Sol Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty) link will expire 6/5/14

But this house is not alone in missing the mark by a wide margin. There’s a distinct pattern with these uber high-end listings. Previously mentioned HERE

Have a look at all the homes that were listed for $2mil and UP and sold since Jan 1, 2013,
(all 6, that is) in the foothills

Property	Original List $$	Eventual Sold $$	%/Sold to List price
3705 Old Sabino Cyn Rd	$3,300,000	$1,700,000	52%
6921 E Rock Ledge Pl	$2,495,000	$1,900,000	76%
2102 E Desert Garden Dr	$4,199,000	$2,500,000	59%
7557 N Secret Canyon Dr	$5,500,000	$3,700,000	67% **
8375 E Canyon Side Rd	$6,900,000	$3,411,450	49%
4521 N Hacienda Del Sol	$4,295,000	$1,900,000	44%

** the list price at time of sale was $3.5 and the final sale ($3.7) included an additional 3 acre parcel that was not included in the listing – hence the over list price sale and a higher %SP/LP than would have been the case.

It seems safe to say that swinging for the fences may not be the way to go.

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

the good, the bad and the ugly

See the number of homes currently for sale & the number sold from Jan 1 to the end of April, broken down by price range, with resulting MOI (months of inventory)

$0 – $599,999
281 for sale
164 sold
= 7 MOI

$600,000 – $999,999
118 for sale
40 sold
= 12 MOI

$1,000,000 & UP                 
104 for sale
12 sold
= 34+ MOI

So we have high inventory and low sales above $600k. And very high and very low above $1.0. What else is new.

I think a good part of why this has happened is due to the mistaken impression by would-be sellers that this was going to be a bang-up year for sales. So they listed their homes in droves, and some, after waiting it out for 3 or 4 years for a good year to come along. Very frustrating. But it’s also true that many of them had vey high hopes for this year. Way too high.

And the longer this stalemate goes on, the further prices are going to fall. I’m mostly referring to the $1.0+ market, where list prices are falling, and where there are some homes that appear to be very well priced but are still not selling.The market that, back in the early days of the recession and RE bust, was touted by many as being virtually recession proof. Yeah sure.
And, incomprehensibly, in some ways it’s even worse today than it was back then.

For a trip down memory lane, to those early days, see the almost identical piece I posted 5 years ago to the day –  May 4, 2009, HERE  - the only difference being that back then the low-end went to $649k and the mid range started at $649,001.

Tick-tock

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

Skyline CC, more than any other community in the foothills, is full of surprises. Some, like this one, very pleasant, others not so much

4825 E Placita Tres Vidas,  a 1982 custom contemporary and, until now, a one owner home sold for $749,000 ($225/sf) from a $749,000 list price in 19 days.

4825 E Placita Tres Vidas Tucson, AZ 85718 (link to expire 6/1/14)
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty)

Previously mentioned > one of a kind in Skyline CC

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

well, at least it’s over

1001 E Magee Road, in Cobo Catalina Hills, was first listed in January 2010 for $2,900,000 and sold today for $1,350,000 ($200/sf) from its most recent list price of $1,525,000.  Oh my.

That’s for a home built in 2006 of concrete block, 6755sf, 1 story on 6.5 acres backing up to the Coronado National Forest, with mesmerizing mountain views. And apparently purchased by someone who did not utilize the services of a Realtor®. Harrumph! Nevertheless, they stole it.

In March, when it dropped to $1,525,000, I said > one of these days

1001 E Magee Road Tucson, AZ 85718  (link to expire on 6/1/14)
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

April Home Sales in the Catalina Foothills

It wasn’t by much, and the competition wasn’t very stiff, but April turned in the highest sales numbers so far this year. On the other hand they’re much lower than last April and also lower than April 2012 and 2011, though they are a bit higher than April 2010.

And sold prices are a mixed bag. The average is down from the exuberant burst of spending in January and March, but the median is UP. And it’s way up, higher than any month (except last October) for the last 2+ years. And there were no big sales in April either, the highest sale was $908,000, yes, not a single home sold in the 7 figures in April. But that too will change. With 10 homes listed at $1,000,000+ currently in contract May may turn out to be a banner month for $1,000,000+ sales. And if so, it’s about time.

The March report is HERE

If you read the real estate news from around the country you’ve seen that sales are down and prices are UP in other cities too. But there’s a difference. In each of those cities the low sales and rising prices are attributed to a very low supply of homes for sale. Hence, the buyers that there are are competing for a low and dwindling supply of homes, and being forced to pay up.
That’s not the case here, the supply of homes for sale is higher than it’s been in the last few years. And way more than during the boom years when homes were selling hand over fist. 
It’s baffling.
                     _____________________________________________________

My observations and opinions of the Catalina Foothills market are based on the facts.
I observe, track and analyze the market, and tell it like it is. If you would like to work with a Realtor who specializes in representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation.
John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

there are a few bright spots in the Catalina Foothills market

In the face of an otherwise ho-hum market (putting it politely) I thought some good news might be refreshing. The choices to include or exclude a particular subdivision in the list of bright spots are based largely on MOI (months of inventory) an accepted measure of how well or poorly an area is doing. And with high inventory in the overall foothills market, and lower sales, it’s worth recognizing those few subdivisions that are holding their own.   
6 months inventory is considered a balanced market, much less and it teeters into sellers market territory, much more and it becomes a buyers market. Which is where most of the foothills is, with these exceptions.

Skyline Belair – barely squeaked in, with 8 homes for sale, 0 in contract, 5 sold since Jan 1
= 6.4 MOI
avg/median sold price $482,780/$389,900
avg days on market (DOM) = 33

Foothills Clusters – 5 for sale, 4 in contract, 5 sold since Jan 1 = 4 MOI
avg/median sold price $320,500/$322,500
DOM = 159

Pinnacle Ridge – 1 for sale, 2 in contract, 1 sold since Jan 1 = 4 MOI
$780,000/780/000 – 
DOM = 26

Fairfield/Sunrise – 6 homes for sale, 1 in contract, 8 sold since Jan 1 = 4 MOI
$394,375/$407,500
103 DOM

Cimarron – 8 for sale, 4 in contract, 7 sold since Jan 1 = 4.6 MOI
$480,943/$408,000
DOM = 74

Santa Catalina Estates – 6 for sale, 3 in contract, 4 sold since Jan 1 = 6 MOI
$272,454/$268,658
DOM= 47

La Paloma (not including the estates) 6 for sale, 0 in contract, 5 sold = 4.8 MOI
$546,380/$534,900
DOM = 48

Pima Canyon – 6 for sale, 1 in contract, 4 sold since Jan 1 = 6 MOI
$1,220,000/$1,310,000
DOM = 172
Pima Canyon is the only upper-end subdivision that’s holding its own. Why? Because more upper-end buyers like Pima Canyon, and they have since the beginning of time.
For more on PC see > why Pima Canyon >  Pima Canyon is eating the competition alive > upper-end buyers like Pima Canyon >  when you’re hot you’re hot 

And that’s it!

If I’ve overlooked a subdivision that is selling well and should be included, please write-in and set me straight. Click Comments just below and let’s hear about it.

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