A Zillow representative contacted me this morning about a blog post I did last December. And in the course of our communication I was reminded of the Zillow Home Values page.
A nifty page where you can enter a neighborhood, zip code or city and, presto!, get the big Z’s take on the market.
One quirk though, I found that if you enter Catalina Foothills as the neighborhood the data only encompasses the area as far east as Craycroft Rd, rather than further east, as it should, to Sabino Canyon Rd. So instead, I entered 85718 and, separately, 85750. If you enter them together the system returns data for one or the other, not both.
First up Zillow’s take on 85718 :
The median home value in 85718 is $407,500. 85718 home values have gone up 4.6% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will rise 3.5% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in 85718 is $181, which is higher than the Catalina Foothills average of $18 [sic].
The median price of homes currently listed in 85718 is $475,000 while the median price of homes that sold is $345,250.
- I can’t comment on the the Zillow median home value since it is derived from algorithms created by Zillow and I have no other similar tool. Moving on, the $181 list price/sf is actually correct for the foothills overall, but incorrect for 85718 where it is currently $197/sf.
The 4.6% rise in home values in the past year is likewise tied to the median home value algorithm, so, no comment there either. But for the actual numbers here on the ground, check out my report on May home sales in the Catalina Foothills.
The median price of homes currently listed, from Tucson MLS data, is $691,500
(not $475,000/Zillow). While the median price of homes that sold is $475,000 (not $345,250/Zillow). So maybe they’ve gotten their medians mixed up -
Market Temperature: Cold Buyers' Market
Based on three metrics—sale-to-list price ratio, the prevalence of price cuts on home listings, and time-on-market—the market temperature provides information on the current balance of bargaining power between buyers and sellers in this zip code relative to other zip codes in the same metropolitan area. A particular zip code may be identified as a good market for buyers in a metro market favorable to sellers overall.Learn more
- Zillow claims that based on the three metrics noted above the 85718 market is COLD, a buyers market. And if we were talking about the upper-end I’d agree wholeheartedly.
But even if we push it and split the market in two, including homes listed/sold up to $999,999 – the bulk of the market – right now we’re looking at 5.8 MOI inventory, (the very definition of a balanced market), but with homes sold in an average of 120 days (too high, so we get nicked for that). And truth be told the lower end, up to about $600 – $700k, is where most of the action is.
And they sold for 96+% of list price - which sounds like pure harmony - with buyers and sellers in close accord. But that’s a fairy tale.
Because the 96% figure is based on the latest list price, which in many-many cases is after price cuts and re-listings,(nicked again) so it’s totally meaningless. And, unfortunately, to calculate the ratio of sold price to Original list price requires pulling the original list prices and calculating each sale individually. Sorry, no can do.
But I’m sure Zillow effortlessly tracks and crunches those numbers and I’ll bet the results do justify a COLD rating. (3rd nick)
I think I’ll save 85750 for another day.
Cheers!
visit TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home
