The Catalina Foothills

2 big sales and a contract

Two homes sold today in, where else, Pima Canyon.

2067 E Desert Garden Drive was listed for $1,299,000 and went to contract in 126 days and sold today for $1,165,000 ($266/sf). And while that all sounds very neat and tidy, the current sellers paid $1,500,000 for it in 2009. It also sold in 2005, when it was brand new, for $1,899,000. So 22% off its 09 sale and a 38% drop from 05. Well, it’s only money.
(Listed by Long Realty)

So they’re selling well in PC, but not anywhere near yesterday’s prices.

7743 N Ancient Indian Drive also sold today – but it was a long haul – it started out in January 2013 at $1,690,000  and eventually dropped to $1,399,000 and sold for $1,314,000 ($271/sf).
No prior sales, it was custom built for the sellers in 2005. (Listed by Long Realty)

That makes it 3 for sale, 1 in contract and 9 sold this year in Pima Cyn, for a squeaky tight 2.7 months of inventory.

And 7525 E Crested Saguaro Place, the gigunda foreclosure on Sabino Mountain that was listed two weeks ago for the bargain basement price of $1,175,000 ($179/sf), went to contract today.

And talk about not selling at yesterday’s prices, see, Psst! a foreclosure for the gory details(Listed by Long Realty)

See them all HERE (link expires 9/27/14)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

The Popularity of Guesthouses

From WSJ.com
By LAUREN SCHUKER BLUM

Once the province of the ultra rich, who had endless acres of land on which to build and many visitors to house, the guesthouse is enjoying a moment with owners of (slightly) more modest means. "Before, you might see a builder of a $10 million house include a guest home in the project," says Ms. Knizek, who has remodeled guesthouses for clients. "Now, a lot of homes priced in the $3 million to $5 million range have guesthouses too."

Read all about it, The Popularity of Guesthouses  (may require a subscription to WSJ.com, or Google the title and try that link)

See Slideshow

   ________________________________________________________________________

With out of town guests flocking here in the winter months guest houses are also popular in the Catalina Foothills. And you don’t have to be filthy rich to find one. There are a handful in the $3 – $5mil range but there are many homes with a guesthouse available for way less.

Currently there are 38 homes for sale with guesthouses, priced from $300,000 to $5,250,000.
(link expires 9/26/14)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

it was fun while it lasted

In the last couple of weeks I noted, HERE HERE &  HERE, the unexpected surge in upper-end contracts. But, unfortunately, with the last contract on 8/21, and nothing since, it appears that we’re back to a normal, quiet and sluggish August.

And more disappointing, one of the bigger deals during that time -7808 N Ancient Indian Drive $1,789,900 – which went to contract in one day, has fallen thru and is back on the market. (link expires 9/20/13)

Let’s check the scorecard and see where we are vs. last year for sales at $1,000,000+;

SOLD 1/1 – 8/25;

2013 – 25 homes sold at $1.0+

2014 – 26 homes sold at $1.0+ 

And currently there are 12 homes in contract listed at $1.0+, so we may yet beat last year’s dismal numbers. ?? dismal numbers, yes, dismal, because 2013 was the slowest year for sales at  $1.0+ since 2003.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

August gone wild

Last week, in a post titled. “so much for a slow August”,  I marveled at the sudden surge of upper-end contracts in what is typically a very slow month for big deals.

And yesterday, reporting on the new $1,789,900 listing in Pima Canyon, while sticking my foot firmly in my mouth, I said, “But, no matter how much sense it makes on paper, sales at $1.7 are hard to come by these days”.

Well, not really. Because that brand new, one day on the market listing for $1,789,900 in Pima Canyon is in contract today.
7808 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (link to expire 9/20/14)
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

And there’s more, and it’s also in PC.

2087 E Desert Garden Drive, listed 45 days ago for $2,174,319, also went to contract today. 
In August. Almost unheard of. When it was listed I mentioned Desert Garden Dr, adding,
 “If you’re looking for opulent,lavish and luxurious, look no further. And well built too, with more stone than Stonehenge” 

And Desert Garden had been on the market before. For many moons. It last sold for $2,200,000 in 2003, and tried for and failed to get $3,300,000 in 2008. It then spent a few years on and off the market finally expiring at $2,495,000 in 2012. And now, in August 2014, it all comes together. Who’s up next.

2087 E Desert Garden Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 (link to expire 9/20/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

new in Pima Canyon

7808 N Ancient Indian Drive, all 6,962sf of it, hit the market today listed at $1,789,900 ($257/sf). It last sold in December 2011 for $1,600,000 and before that, in the happy days of 2005, for $2,650,000.

So, for the sake of argument, assuming those prior sales were close to market value then, $1,789,900 seems in the ballpark; -32% off its 05 sale and 7% above the 2011 sale. Leave a little room for negotiating and you’re there. But, no matter how much sense it makes on paper, sales at $1.7 are hard to come by these days.

7808 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718

(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

buyers are now taking a 2nd look at homes that didn’t pass muster the 1st time

Every day I spend some time going thru the MLS to get the latest on the foothills market.
I look at the new listings, (very few lately) the homes going to contract and the homes that sold. And during the last couple of weeks I kept noticing that many of the homes going to contract were homes that had been on the market for a long time. Many, a very long time.

These are homes that were on the market during winter/spring selling season, but didn’t sell, and are now getting a 2nd look, and often an offer, from buyers that now have fewer options. 
Why is that.

Well, because the best homes and the best priced homes always sell first. And many of them are gone. And because now, during the summer months, with very few new listings coming along, particularly at about $700k and up, buyers are left to look at the homes that didn’t sell and are leftover. Homes that were not at the top of their list, and often homes that didn’t even make the list. And they may be forced to reconsider their needs and to possibly consider making compromises and concessions.

Do we go for older instead of newer, or instead of move-in ready do we go for something that needs remodeling, or do we give up the mountain views, or how about a non-gated 2 story Mediterranean instead of a gated 1 story southwest contemporary. The list of possible compromises is personal and endless, and difficult to make. But I think quite a few buyers are now facing that dilemma.

Back in March the median days on the market for the homes that sold was 51 days.
In April it was 52 days and also 52 days in May. In June it jumped to 55 days.

Vs. the last two weeks – 41 homes went to contract at 141 median days on the market. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in your favorite Catalina Foothills subdivision

The Catalina Foothills market varies a great deal from one area or subdivision to another, and whether you’re buying or selling it’s important to understand the market in the specific areas you are interested in. The following chart is a quick guide to supply and demand in some of the more popular subdivisions in the Catalina Foothills.

Included is the # of single family homes currently for sale, the # in contract, and the # sold from January 1st thru August 15th - with the resulting MOI (months of inventory).

Also, click any of the subdivision names to see all the homes currently for sale, along with those that are in-contract as Active Contingent, the first stage of escrow.

Subdivision	# for sale	# in contract	# sold	MOI
Shadow Hills	7	3	15	3.5
Skyline Bel Air	9	2	7	9.6
Fairfield/Sunrise	3	3	18	1.25
Villages of Ventana	5	0	5	7.5
Las Alturas	3	0	3	7.5
Flecha Caida	8	2	9	6.6
Coronado Foothills	15	1	9	12.5
Foothills Clusters	6	1	10	4.5
Cimarron	12	0	16	5.6
Catalina Fthls Est 1-9	24	8	32	5.6
Catalina Fthls Est 10	6	2	4	11
Sabino Mountain	7	5	10	5
Alta Vista	12	3	7	13
Cobo Catalina Hills	5	0	1	37
Bellas Catalinas	2	1	0	?
Cobblestone	5	1	0	?
Finisterra	2	1	1	15
the Canyons	3	1	1	22
Pima Canyon	3	2	7	3
La Puerta	0	0	1	0
Pontatoc Canyon	1	0	3	2.5
Pinnacle Ridge	2	0	3	5
Sin Vacas	2	3	9	1.6
Hacienda del Sol Est.	4	1	2	15
Bonita Ridge	2	1	4	4
Skyline CC	9	2	12	5.6
La Paloma CC	24	2	27	6.6
Ventana CC	28	3	22	9.5
Totals	209	48	238	6.6

For many of the subdivisions noted, for instance, Shadow Hills, Pinnacle Ridge, Foothills Clusters, etc., etc., the supply/demand picture is fairly accurate as shown, because home prices in those subdivisions fall within a reasonably narrow band.

But in others, like Catalina Foothills Estates, Skyline CC, La Paloma, Ventana CC and Sabino Mountain, home prices run the gamut from below $500k up to $1, $2 and $3million or more. And there’s a BIG difference between how $500k homes and $$million+ homes are selling.
So for a more accurate picture of the market, those subdivisions need to be evaluated by price range as well.

Click the Market Snapshot tab at the top of the page for a view of the entire Catalina Foothills market broken down by price range, and you’ll see what I mean.

And to see how things have changed since earlier this year, check out the identical report I did in May -  supply and demand in the Catalina Foothills

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

                                   __________________________________________________

If you would like to work with a Realtor® who specializes in just one thing, representing buyers of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills, call or email today for a confidential consultation. 
                    John Schneider • [email protected] • 520 271-4164

Catalina Foothills Open Houses

There are 49 homes listed in the MLS as open today, homes priced from $279,000 to $1,695,000.

See them all here > Open House

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

Psst! a foreclosure

and a big one too. If not the largest, then certainly one of the largest homes on Sabino Mountain showed up this morning as a foreclosure listed at $1,175,000, just ($179/sf).
That’s for 6569sf – including guest house, 4 Beds/4.5 baths, built 2003, pool, etc., etc.

It sold in 2008 for $2,250,000 ($333/sf) – the highest price ever paid on Sabino Mountain (thru the MLS anyway). And talk about timing, the 08 sale closed two weeks after Lehman collapsed. I can’t imagine why the buyers didn’t pull the plug, or, for that matter, Wells Fargo. But they didn’t, and now it’s Wells Fargo’s turn to deal with it. Also, it was listed in 2011 for $1,950,000, and having failed to find a buyer expired in March 2013 at $1,690,000.

It’s listed as a Mediterranean, hmmm, I’d call it … eclectic, with a touch of Med.
But have a look, what would you call it.

7525 E Crested Saguaro PlaceTucson, AZ 85750  (link expires 9/14/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

in contract last week, 8/4 – 8/10

From Monday August 4th through Sunday August 10th  19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills. (link to expire 8/13/14)

10 were priced from $149,900 to $599,000
7 from $649,000 to $895,000
2 from $1,259,000 to $1,299,000

An exceptionally robust week for August. During the same week last year there were 13 contracts, and they topped out at $839k.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

so much for a slow August

The other day I reported that here we are In the dead of summer, when high-end sales are at their slowest and 6161 E Finisterra Drive, listed at $1,299,000, and on the market for a long-long time, went to contract back to back with 6261 E Placita Aspecto, listed at $1,259,000. 

And for August, that alone would have been quite an achievement.

But that was just the warm-up, since then 5 more upper-end homes have found a buyer.

4021 E Camino Montecillo, in La Paloma, listed at $815,000 and on the market for 165 days,
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

2131 E Camino El Ganado, in Cat 5, listed at $824,000, after 162 days,
(listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

4458 N Sabino Mountain Drive, on Sabino Mountain, listed at $899,000 for 178 days
(listed by Long Realty)

7700 N Calle Sin Miedo, in Sin Vacas, listed at $1,195,000, for 156 days
(listed by Long Realty)

And, finally, the big Kahuna,7248 N Cloud Canyon Place, in the Canyons, and currently listed at $2,500,000, for 258 days, (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's International Realty)

all went to contract this week, the golden week of August 11, 2014. 

Who would have predicted that, not me. But the oddest thing about it is that except for Placita Aspecto, these homes have been on the market for many months or years, so why now, in August. 

See them all HERE (link to expire 9/13/14)

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

 

Zillow on Zillow

Here’s a little video from our friends at Zillow explaining the hows and whys of their Zestimates. It talks about how they compute the Zestimate, how Zestimates differ from appraisals and from Realtor generated market valuations, and what we as consumers and real estates guru’s should expect from a Zestimate. It’s helpful and puts it in perspective.

 

 

 

And the chart below shows the accuracy of Zestimates throughout the various counties of Arizona. Notice that our very own Pima County, along with Maricopa, are deemed the most accurate for Zestimates in Arizona. 

And a big thanks goes to a reader and client for sending me all this good stuff.

Take care,

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

awfully nice horse property

Often with horse property you’ll find that the property is nice enough but the house leaves something to be desired. 

With this one you get the whole enchilada. It’s on 2.5 acres of privately fenced and gated property with a really nice 2001 built house - 3866sf, 4 Beds/3.5 Baths, one story, stained concrete floors, 3 car garage, pool, privacy - and direct access to the Tanque Verde wash, where you can ride til the cows come home.

And it’s just a little ways east of Sabino Canyon Rd, so you’re not out in the middle of nowhere with no one but old Trigger for company.   $950,000 ($246/sf)
 7990 E Alvin Tucson, AZ 85750 
(listed by Long Realty) 

 

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

when you least expect it

Here we are In the dead of summer, when high-end sales are at their slowest, and two homes just went to contract.

In Finisterra, 6161 E Finisterra Drive, on and off the market since January 2012, when it debuted at $1,950,000, went to contract yesterday asking $1,299,000, just $185/sf - which likely takes in account the cost of some updating.

This is a big house, with palatial sized living areas.

It was for sale in 2005 for $1,999,000, and didn’t sell. So, in an attempt to keep up with a fast rising market, in 2006 they raised the price to $2,950,000, but still no go. And now, with that window of opportunity long-gone, they’ll be getting something closer to $1.299,000.
6161 E Finisterra Drive Tucson, AZ 85750   (link to expire 9/10/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

And in Alta Vista, 6261 E Placita Aspecto, on the market just 40 days and apparently priced just right, went to contract at its first list price of $1,259,000 ($252/sf). It was for sale at approximately the same price last year and the year before, and nothing happened.

6261 E Placita Aspecto Tucson, AZ 85750     (link to expire 9/10/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

real world prices vs. Zestimates

It’s always fun to compare, and useful to keep an eye on, where Zillow is with foothills home prices vs. actual selling prices here on the ground. So here’s the list price vs. the actual sold price vs. Zillow’s Zestimate for homes that recently sold in the Catalina Foothills.

2940 E Camino Juan Paisano Tucson, AZ 85718 – was listed in March 2013 for $825,000 and reduced again and again until it reached $699,000 and sold for $500,000 the other day.
According to Zillow the sellers gave it away and should have held out for $941,524.

5974 N Campo Abierto, Tucson, AZ 85718 – listed at $507,000 it sold for $488,000
and Zillow nailed it at $482,234

7756 N Canyon Spirit Way, Tucson, AZ 85718 – started at $1,279,000 and eventually dropped to $995,000 and sold for  $890,000, while the big Z was holding out for  $1,028,760.

4087 N Ocotillo Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750 – started at $479,000, dropped to $450,000 and sold for $440,000. And again Zillow nailed it, at $446,516.

5650 N Placita Amanecer , Tucson, AZ 85718 – was listed for $499,000 and sold for $480,000.
Coming in at $500,822, Zillow was awfully close.

6279 E Placita Chiripa, Tucson, AZ 85750 – was listed for $539,000 and sold for $521,200 with Zillow basically hitting the bull’s eye at $516,579

6822 N Table Mountain Road , Tucson, AZ 85718 – listed at $575,000, dropped to $549,900 and sold for $537,500. And once again, at $510,605, Zillow was awfully close.

6219 N Zorrela Segundo Road , Tucson, AZ 85718 – was listed for $625,000 and sold for $625,000, while Zillow low-balled it at $535,310.

6721 N Los Leones Drive , Tucson, AZ 85718 – was listed for $749,000, dropped to $685,000 and sold for $565,000, while Zillow had it at $648,257.

So all in all a pretty good showing for Zillow. Though I wish there were more recent higher priced sales to more rigorously test Zillow’s accuracy. But it’s August, and August is not noted for its big buck sales.

And a prediction from Zillow;

Zillow predicts 85718 home values will rise 4.5% next year, compared to a 4.8% rise for Catalina Foothills as a whole.

Foreclosures will be a factor impacting home values in the next several years. In 85718, the number of foreclosures waiting to be sold is 22.2% less than in Catalina Foothills, and 45.5% lower than the national average. This lower local number could help 85718 home values rise more quickly than other regions in Catalina Foothills.

A 4.5% increase for next year would be in keeping with the increase in prices we’ve seen since last year. Steady as she goes.

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

another re-set for Catalina Foothills home prices

In Hacienda del Sol Estates, 4971 N Avenida De Castilla sold in 2007 for $1,015,000 and was listed this past February for $869,000, dropped to $842,000, then to $820,000 last month and it went to contract today, most likely, for something  less than $820,000.

And the sellers also made some good and costly improvements since they bought in 07 - the master bath has been completely remodeled with therapeutic air tub, waterless urinal, bamboo floors and walls of handmade tile. 2 new VS HVAC units and 2 new water heaters + a newly plastered pool and a 9.2kW photovoltaic solar system brings electric bills down to almost NOTHING.

But what are you going to do, that’s the market.

4971 N Avenida De Castilla , Tucson, AZ 85718  (link to expire 9/6/14)
(listed by RE/MAX Catalina Foothills Realty)

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
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sales at $1,000,000+

As noted the other day, home sales for the overall Catalina Foothills market are down 23% this year from last year. And for much of this year the $1,000,000+ market was also lagging 2013 sales.

But no more, it has now caught up. Sales from Jan 1 thru 7/31 are exactly the same as 2013,
25 homes sold each year at $1,000,000+.

Hurrah!, but still a dubious honor. Because 2013 had the lowest number of sales at $1,000,000+ since 2003. Hard to believe, but true. More homes sold at $1,000,000+ in every year from 2004 – 2012, than in 2013.

Here’s a chart showing full year sales 2000 – 2013;

And in the Catalina Foothills alone there are still 78 homes for sale from $1,000,000 to $13,900,000. So a good 2+ years of supply at the current pace.

While another 81 homes listed at $1,000,000+ linger on the market in the surrounding areas of the Northwest, Northeast, Central, Southeast, etc.

Not a pretty picture if you’re trying to sell.

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in contract during the last 2 weeks, 7/21 – 8/3

And again I skipped a week, I blame it on the heat, my apologies.

From Monday July 20th through Sunday August 3rd  30 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills. (link to expire 9/4/14)

22 were priced from $174,500 to $490,000
6 from $625,000 to $895,000
2 from $1,295,000 to $1,299,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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Catalina Foothills home sales and sold prices drop in July

Except for a spurt in June, which we hoped would continue in July, but didn’t, home sales this year continue to lag last year’s numbers. July sales are down from May and down from June and way down from last July.
 

 

So YTD, here’s the total # of homes sold from January thru July, 2013 vs. 2014,

2013 – Jan - July  575 homes sold
2014 – Jan - July 456 homes sold
sales are now down 23% vs.2013 – a further drop from June when they were down 20%.

And sold prices, which have been rising this year, also fell in July, and are tied with February for the lowest sold prices this year – and are also drastically lower than last July.

The following are average/median sold prices for January – July, 2013 vs. 2014.

2013  Jan - July  - $468,582/ $394,000                                        
2014  Jan - July - $489,018/ $411,000, 
So prices are now UP 4.4% & 4.3% from last year. And that’s nice, but it’s a drop of almost 3% since June, when they were UP 7% vs.last year.

The June report is HERE

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

DFT

the most hated acronym in the real estate world – (deal fell thru). Everyone involved, the buyers and sellers and their respective agents, and the title and escrow companies have all worked hard and spent a lot of time and money to bring the deal together and move it forward. And when it falls thru it’s all down the drain.

Because once the deal falls thru everyone’s back to square one– you know the drill.  
The sellers put their home back on the market and wait for another buyer to come along and the buyer goes back to looking another home, write another offer, counteroffer, do, and pay again for new inspections. And hope that it goes better than the last one.

Sometimes it’s just unavoidable, but other times’ it’s very avoidable. I had one fall thru recently where the buyers offer, which was accepted, was 96.4% of list price. So a pretty darn good offer for this market, and in the heat of summer too. But the inspections discovered some electrical, plumbing and roof issues that the buyers wanted the sellers to take care of. Approximately $4000 in repairs, about .6% of the purchase price, peanuts, which they were prepared to accept as a credit in lieu of repairs, if that was more acceptable. And they were all legitimate items, not fluffy picky little cosmetic stuff.

But the sellers refused to do any of it, nothing. Not a thing. Take it or leave it. And guess what, they left it, the buyers cancelled the contract. Which I think surprised the heck out of the sellers, and their agent too. They may have figured, incorrectly, that we were in too deep to cancel.

And it’s rare these days, but when sellers refuse to recognize legitimate repair items, and at least pitch in to get them taken care of, especially when they refuse to do anything at all, it’s an insult to the buyers. And in my experience, more often than not, they cancel.

I’ve been in that situation as a buyer and I’ve done the same thing, I cancelled. And I never regretted it. And the old saying sounds corny,  “it wasn’t meant to be“, but in every instance where my buyers cancelled because of an uncooperative seller, they ended up finding another house they liked better, and thanked their lucky stars they let the first one go.

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
at TheFoothillsToday.com

sold for 24% off 2012 sale price

In Pima Canyon, 7756 N Canyon Spirit Way sold for $1,175,000 in 2012 and for $890,000 ($215/sf) today. After 286 days.

But – and this may’ve been the fly in the ointment – they started out asking $1,279,000. 
Previously mentioned HERE

Of the 7 sales in PC this year, at $215/sf, this is the 2nd lowest $$/sf sold price. The average is $257/sf, the high $321 and the low $205. But unlike many others, it sold.

7756 N Canyon Spirit Way Tucson, AZ 85718 (link expires 8/31/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

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sold for list price in Cat 8

6219 N Zorrela Segundo, listed for $625,000 ($255/sf), went to contract in 15 days and sold for $625,000. Previously mentioned here >  prices in Catalina Foothills Estates # 8 < where I used ZS to discuss just that, prices in Cat 8 over the last few years.

And at the time of that writing Zorrela Segundo had just gone to contract and I guessed that it went for at least $590,000. Despite the fact that our friends at Zillow had it at $474,889.
And since then, just a little over a month, they’ve upped their zestimate to $526,457, which also doesn’t add up. Because prices surely haven’t risen 11% in 5 weeks. 

And I can’t help wondering if zestimates like this, that are off by that much, are needlessly scaring buyers away from homes. There was also a backup offer for Zorella Segundo, though I don’t know for how much.  

PS- this is the highest $$ and $$/sf sale in Cat 8 this year.

6219 N Zorrela Segundo Road , Tucson, AZ 85718  (link expires 8/31/14)
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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