Remember when “the shadow inventory” was the byword of the day and heard repeatedly from every real estate prognosticator’s lips. And I don’t know about the rest of the country but “the shadow inventory’' failed, miserably, to ever materialize here in the Catalina Foothills.
In 2014 there were 36 foreclosure sales out of 774 total sales of single family homes – that’s a teeny tiny 4.6% of sales.
2013 – 880 total sales, 70 or 8% were foreclosures.
2012 – 818 total sales, 95 or 11.6% were foreclosures.
2011 – 679 total sales, 100 or 14.7% were foreclosures.
2010 – 639 total sales, 94 or 14.7% were foreclosures.
2009 – 577 total sales, 49 or 8.5% were foreclosures.
And the further back you go the further down it goes.
And today, out of a grand total of 466 homes for sale, 2 are listed as foreclosures – 0.429% – and there are 3 in contract.
Doing a search at Realty Trac they report about 35 homes in the Catalina Foothills are bank owned. But digging a little deeper it appears that most of them are actually not bank owned.
Because Realty Trac does a big back peddle, stating in the fine print;
‘We have not received a status update on this property in xxx days (fill in blank, usually somewhere between 300 and 1500 days). The property may or may not be bank owned. We recommend that you verify the status of this property with the lender or contact a local agent before proceeding’. Okey dokey.
So I checked the Pima County Tax Assessor and none of them show as bank owned. And while that’s not ironclad I also checked Zillow and they don’t show them as bank owned either. And I am a local agent, so I checked the MLS and none of them are listed as bank owned.
So, as far as I know, the following homes are the only one’s that are actually bank owned. And none of them are listed for sale in the MLS.
4540 E CERCO DEL CORAZON, TUCSON, AZ 85718 - which sold for $672,500 ($237/sf) in 2006, and failed to sell for $400,000 in 2013 - is now in the hands of Wells Fargo.
Zillow Zestimates its foreclosure value at $399,152, which they claim is about $70,000 less than it would sell for in a traditional, non foreclosure sale.
5435 E Placita De Royale,Tucson, AZ 85718 – built in 2007, there is no previous sale and it was never listed for sale – is located in an un-subdivided area of the Catalina Foothills where the most recent sale (2013) was at $495,000($143/sf).
Zillow Zestimates its foreclosure value at $536,731, about $95,000 less than it would sell for in a traditional, non foreclosure sale.
5480 N Waterfield Dr,Tucson, AZ 85750 – listed for sale in 2012 for $222,000 but didn’t sell – is now in the hands of LSF8 MASTER PARTICIPATION TRUST.
Zillow’s Foreclosure Estimate is $208,507, about $36,000 less than a non foreclosure sale.
And that’s it. 3 homes. And I’ll admit that that seems like too few. So I’m probably missing something somewhere. But there’s nothing, not one iota of evidence that I can find to show there’s a big “shadow inventory” lurking nearby and about to plunge our market into a big wave of foreclosures.
Realty Trac does list other homes that are in pre-foreclosure, but who knows what’ll happen, pre- foreclosure is kinda like being almost pregnant.
see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home
