In 2008, as the economy was teetering on the brink, some foothills sellers apparently believed that the value of their homes had gone Up.
A house in Alta Vista sold in 2004 for $1,200,000 and, get this, was listed for $1,795,000 in January 2009. By the end of 2010 it was still for sale and down to $1,100,000, but still no takers, so it left the market. But all’s well that ends well - it was relisted with a new LA in late 2013 for $1,150,000 and sold recently for $925,000.
Desert Garden Drive in Pima Canyon sold for $2,200,000 in 2003 and on October 6th, 2008 it was listed for $3,300,000 and eventually sold in November 2014 for $1,999,500.
Well, maybe so, just not this house
Ancient Indian Drive sold for $2,650,000 in 2005 and on October 6th 2008, yep, again with October 6th, with the economy in full meltdown, it was listed for $3,599,000.
It eventually sold in 2011 for $1.6 and sold again in 2014 for $1.4.
So eventually those sellers with visions of sugar plums dancing in their heads had a rude awakening. And when the dust finally settled, which it mostly has, prices for these upper-end homes were drastically re-set.
And there were dozens and dozens more homes that went through similar travails.
See more > HERE HERE HERE HERE HERE HERE HERE ….
And today the economy is in much better shape, the stock market is booming, thank God, jumbo mortgages are cheap and upper-end prices are down. And sellers of upper-end homes, many of whom have been through the wringer, are much more flexible and reasonable than they were. They want out. Yet many high-end buyers continue to sit it out. And I don’t know why.
Upper-end sales peaked in 2006 – when prices were at their highest - and sales dropped dramatically after 06. And they basically bumped along the bottom from 2009 into the first half of 2014. And then, suddenly, in the latter half of 2014, sales took off.
And of course we were expecting that that upward trend would continue into 2015.
But so far it’s not happening.
Here it is the end of February and what do have - 4 homes in contract listed at $1million+, but just barely at $1million+. They’re listed at $1.090, $1.195, $1.295 and a biggie at $2.495 – but $2.495 has been in contract since May 2014. So it is by no means a 2015 contract and the other 3 are at the very bottom end of the $million+ market.
And just 2 sales so far this year from 2015 contracts – one at $1,005,000 plus the steal in Cobo that went for $1,525,000 (which sold for $3.2 in 09) And that’s it.
In 05 – 06 - 226 homes sold at $1.0+ for an avg/med $/sf of $306/$317
In 13 – 14 - 80 homes sold at $1.0+ for an avg/med $/sf of $255/$267
In 05 – 06 31 homes sold from $2.0 to $3.650
In 13 – 14 we had a grand total of 5 sales in that price range.
But maybe we’re expecting too much. It’s been 8 long years since the upper-end market peaked and 5 years since it hit bottom. And let’s face it, maybe this is it. Maybe this market is not destined to return to those glory days of yesteryear. (as many places in the US already have) Maybe 40 – 50 sales/year at $1.0+ is the new normal. Could be. We’ll see.
What got me on this jag was a reader of this blog who wrote in asking me about the doldrums of the upper-end market. Comparing the upper-end market in the Catalina Foothills to that in Phoenix, and wondering why Phoenix is doing so well while Tucson is not. He wondered if there is a problem with the politics or the economy in Tucson that is causing upper-end buyers to stay away.
Politics, no thank you, I’m not touching that. And the only problem with the economy in Tucson that I’m aware of - as it relates to high-end home sales - is that there is no big, strong and growing industry that pays really well and would therefore contribute to a more competitive and vibrant upper-end market. And that’s a pretty big problem. Because as it is the upper-end market is largely dependent on the whims of discretionary buyers - buyers of 2nd homes or retirement homes. Buyers who can afford to wait until everything is just so before they buy. Buyers who are aware that there is little competition for the many upper-end homes for sale, many of whom are waiting for even better deals to come along.
Phoenix has lots of jobs, high paying jobs. We don’t. And on those occasions when someone relocates to Tucson or Phoenix for a high paying job they need to find a home in a reasonable amount of time. They can’t afford to dilly-dally and wait for everything to be just so. They need to get settled, get their family settled and hit the ground running.
In the lingo of real estate, they are motivated buyers.
see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills Home
