The Catalina Foothills

recent sales at $1,000,000 to $1,249,999

As we get up into the $million prices I’m expanding the price range to increments of $250k. Because upper-end buyers often have more flexibility in the range of home prices they are willing and able to consider.

36 single family homes for sale – 3 in contract – 3 sold in the last 30 days = 12 months inventory – with double the number of months inventory that is considered a normal, balanced market, this price range is smack dab in buyers market territory.

The 3 homes that did sell;

In Ventana CC, 7361 E Thimble View Way was listed at $1,049,000 and sold in the blink of an eye (3 days) for $950,000 ($259/sf). The sellers paid $871,500 in 2003. Zillow has it at $1,031,994.

In Cat 10, 4431 N Camino Sumo was listed at $1,065,000 and sold in 127 days for $960,000 ($202/sf). A one owner home, the seller paid $235,000 for the lot in 2002. Zillow = $1,181,614

In Alta Vista, 6601 N Placita Alta Reposa, a new spec home was listed for $1,175,000 last July, reduced to $1,025,000 this January and sold for $973,000 (212/sf). If it were up to Zillow it would have gone for way over list, for $1,291,775.

So, 3 sales of homes listed from $1.0 to $1.249. But all 3 were huddled at the low end of the range and all 3 sold for under the bottom of the range. And Zillow was overzealous on all 3. And 2 of the 3 in contract are also listed at the low end of the price range. So, not a booming market.

Recent sales in the $300’s

Recent sales in the $400’s

Recent sales in the $500’s

Recent sales in the $600’s

Recent sales in the $700’s

Recent sales in the $800’s

Recent sales in the $900’s

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

sold in Skyline CC

5322 E Gleneagles Drive just sold for $1,302,000 ($339/sf) - the highest $$/sf sold price anywhere in the Catalina Foothills this year. For a stem to stern thoughtfully re-imagined, beautifully renovated and remodeled 1977 home on a jaw dropping mountain and city view lot.

Since the early 2000’s Skyline CC has been the epicenter for knockdowns, remodels and renovation of older homes – because there are a lot of older homes in Skyline and many are sitting on pretty fantastic lots. Lots, the likes of which are virtually extinct in the foothills today. But when the market tanked in 2008 – 2012 the remodel craze came to a halt. But it’s coming back in Skyline and that’s a  good thing, because there are plenty of older homes on great lots waiting for someone to breathe new life into them.

I mentioned Gleneagles last month and took issue with Zillow’s zestimate ($954,190, absurd) and their nearly same priced zestimate for another home in Skyline that, while very nice, is just not in the same league as Gleneagles -  here’s where Zillow’s zestimates fall short
PS- if you read that piece, the other home is still for sale (asking $1,000,000) while Gleneagles is sold for $1.3.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

recent sales in the $900’s

a scant 12 homes for sale from $900,000 to $999,999 – 3 in contract – nothing sold in the last 30 days.

So nothing to write (home) about,

Recent sales in the $300’s

Recent sales in the $400’s

Recent sales in the $500’s

Recent sales in the $600’s

Recent sales in the $700’s

Recent sales in the $800’s

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/18 – 5/24

From Monday May 18th through Sunday May 24th  24 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 6/26/15)

18 were priced from $160,000 to $549,000
5 from $600,000 to $765,000
1 at $1,995,000

Now that it’s the end of May things may slow down a bit. Traditionally they have. But I have sneaking suspicion that that tradition is slowly fading and the difference in sales between the in and off season will become less pronounced.

I think the wealth of information now available on the internet is making it easier for buyers, and giving them the confidence, to shop for Tucson homes all year round. Whether they’re in Tucson, Teaneck or Tuscaloosa.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Foothills Clusters is batting a thousand

Get this, 3 for sale, 3 in contract (all 3 are PENDING, so they’re past the hurdles & soon to close) and 13 homes sold this year = 1 stingy month of inventory.

And with demand soaring, prices are also rising – median sold prices are up 30% since foothills prices bottomed out in 2012. Meanwhile, the overall foothills market is up just 11% since 2012. 

Median sold prices for the 13 sold this year is $279,000 @ $160/sf.
During the same period in 2012 it was $214,950 @ $142/sf.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

odds n ends

 In the once and usually always popular Pima Canyon just 1 home has sold this year. By this time last year 4 homes had sold.  And by this time in 2012 and 2013 there’d been 10 sales each year. What gives? I’ve often referred to PC as the most popular high-end subdivision in the foothills, because it routinely outsells outsold the others – because, for one thing, it has more newer homes than the others. And more buyers like newer homes. Just not this year.
                                             ………..……………………

Two homes in Skyline Bel Air went to contract yesterday (both listed by Tierra Antigua) leaving SBA with a squeaky tight 3 months of inventory – amongst the lowest in the foothills. Totaling  5 homes in contract, 4 for sale, 7 sold this year.  Average/median sold price $439,429/$421,000. During the same period in 2012 the average/median sold was $367,500/$362,500  - a jump of almost 20% in the average & 16% for the median. Which is more of an increase than for the foothills overall. See below,                                     
                                             ……………………………….

YTD - Median sold prices in the foothills are now up 11% from their bottom in 2012 but, even so, they’re still down 25% from their peak in 2006.
                                          ………………………………..

Buying a second home is a luxury. "A vacation home is the ultimate discretionary purchase,"
That, from an article on WSJ.com from May 2013, but still relevant to the Catalina Foothills getaway market today. And, along with a lack of high paying jobs, it is the other reason why the upper-end market continues to stumble.  Read all about it - Making a Getaway 
                                        ………………………………….

Dwindling sales at $1,000,000 & UP

From January 1st – May 22
25 sold in 2012
19 sold in 2013
16 sold in 2014
12 sold in 2015
                                       ………………………………….

Dwindling sales of foreclosures.
Remember mr. lender and the thrill of the hunt for the bargain-basement deals he brought to the table.

From January 1st – May 22
35 sold in 2012
34 sold in 2013
16 sold in 2014
3 sold in 2015

                                        …………………………………..

A.F. Sterling, who has built 100’s of homes for satisfied customers in the Catalina Foothills, last year started building and selling homes in a newly created little subdivision at the corner of Ina & Christie Dr – a busy location that may not have been high on everyone’s wish list.

Nevertheless, as a testament to the quality construction and excellent customer service that Sterling is known for, combined with very attractive prices and almost no new homes available elsewhere, that little subdivision is sold out. One home sold yesterday for $644,143 ($182/sf) - an awfully nice price for a brand new A.F. Sterling home, including about $50k in upgrades. 
                                         ………………………………….

It’s Sunday, Open House Day, see them all HERE 
from all Realtors® & Brokerages, who have listed their Open Houses in the Tucson MLS 
                                        …………………………………..

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/11 – 5/17

From Monday May 11th through Sunday May 17th  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ.

16 were priced from $269,900 to $595,000
7 from $649,900 to $899,900
1 @ $1,050,000 & 1 @ $1,490,000

Yet another strong week for the $600k - $999k price range. And, with just a tad over 7 months inventory, a turnaround from where its been until recently.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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big contract in the Canyons today

Listed for years for more $$$$, but on the market just 9 days with new listing agents for less $$$ a home in the Canyons went to contract today listed at $1,995,000 ($320/sf)

This is the 2nd big contract in the Canyons this year, the other at $2,750,000 ($433/sf), incredibly enough, went to contract in just 91 days.

There was long dry spell in the Canyons from 2009 thru 2013 when just 4 homes sold, and sold at drastically reduced prices (like 40 – 60% off) including a spec home that started at $5mil and sold 2 years later as a foreclosure for $1,850,000.

Then in 2014 there were 2 sales, at $2,175,000 ($305/sf) & $3,700,000 ($706/sf) including an additional 3+ acre lot totaling 6.7 acres. And they were also reduced from loftier heights, but not nearly as drastically.

Assuming the 2 homes currently in contract make it to the finish line and close, it will be 4 sales in the last 18 months vs..... 4 fire sales in the previous 5 years. 

Leaving just 2 for sale, at $4,495,000 & $7,900,000

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recent sales in the $800’s

26 single family homes for sale – 9 in contract – 2 sold in last 30 days = a very long 13 months inventory. But with the promise of better things to come as the 9 in contract sell, assuming they make it past the hurdles.

Here are the 2 lucky home sellers who did make it past the hurdles;

4844 N Avenida De Castilla Tucson, AZ 85718, in Hacienda del Sol Estates, was listed in Feb 2014 for $1,125,000 and had 2 hefty price cuts, soon after to $990,000 then 9 months later to $880,000, and that did the trick. It sold for $800,000 ($218/sf). Zillow was overly optimistic, calling it at $950,787 - but I do admire them for continuing to display their zestimate, right or wildly wrong, alongside the actual sale price.

4162 N Quail Canyon Drive , Tucson, AZ 85750, on Sabino Mountain, was listed last September for $949,000, dropped to $899,000 and quickly dropped again to $875,000 and sold for $849,000 ($223/sf). Zillow nailed it at $846,095.

That’s all she wrote,

Recent sales in the $300’s

Recent sales in the $400’s

Recent sales in the $500’s

Recent sales in the $600’s

Recent sales in the $700’s

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

See it First, Before it Hits the MLS

Caroline Freedman and I have co-listed a wonderful home in the sought after Pinnacle Ridge subdivision - gated, newer homes, 4 minutes to Swan/Sunrise, District 16 Schools.
 
UPDATE: That was then, now, 2 days later, it hit the MLS today, 5/18 – see it here

The Details;
2001 built, 3541 sf, single story, 3 Bedrooms/3.5 Baths + Private Office, Open, Spacious Floor Plan with Split Bedrooms, Tall Ceilings, Large Cook’s Kitchen open to Family Room & Lush Park-like Backyard, 3 Car Garage, No Pool (plenty of room for pool)  Impeccable condition, meticulously maintained, shows like new.   $775,000 ($219/sf).

 

 

 

 

Contact me for a showing, before it hits the MLS - Qualified Buyers Only, please.
John Schneider - Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 – 271-4164
[email protected]

Caroline Freedman, Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
(520) 405-1794
[email protected]

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

big sale in Cat 10

A new spec home at 4675 N Via De La Granja sold for $1,600,000 ($324/sf) from a $1,695,000 list.

And that’s big news – it’s the highest price paid for a home in Cat 10 since 2012 and the highest $$/sf sale since 2008. (previously mentioned HERE)

In the glory days of 2005 to pre-Lehman 2008 there were 14 sales at $300+/sf in Cat 10, and then just 5 from 2009  thru today.

And while the lion’s share of the decline in Big $$$ sales throughout the foothills was obviously due to the market meltdown, it’s also true that there were very few new high-end spec homes built from 2010 until mid 2013 – early 2014. Hence, very few new homes available. And done right, in a good location and on a good lot, buyers love spec homes. And had they been available I think we would have seen at least a few more sales in the last 12 – 18 months.

But the key is done right. Not like some of the schlock that was built, and often built on schlock lots, during the boom years.

There have been just 3 new upper-end spec homes available this year and all 3 are spoken for, either sold or in contract.

PS- Zillow fumbled it on Via De La Granja, calling it at $1,381,792.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/4 – 5/10

From Monday May 4th through Sunday May 10th  24 single family homes went to contract  in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 6/13/15)

16 were priced from $199,000 to $525,000
  7 from $649,900 to $999,999
  1 at $1,495,000

The strongest week in weeks for the $600,000 to $999,999 price range which has been doing pretty good lately and now is the strongest it’s been this year.
118 homes for sale – 30 in contract – 20 sold last 30 days = 5.9 MOI

Back in February there was 23 MOI, 10 in March and 13 in mid April.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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bite the bullet or drip drip

After testing the waters and failing to sell their home at a pie-in-the-sky asking price the most popular strategy for sellers to entice buyers, and not leave money on the table, is to make small price cuts over however long it takes to snag a buyer - the drip-drip method. (on the market for 6 months at $1.5mil and cut it to $1.475, does anyone really care) But small price cuts don’t get noticed and if they do they tend to only reinforce the belief that the seller is unrealistic and may be difficult to deal with. And that’s a turnoff for buyers. And sitting on the market month after and month does nothing to enhance the value of any home in the eyes of potential buyers, so this strategy usually backfires.

The other option, making a big price cut, the kind of cut that gets buyers attention and rouses them to make an offer is, admittedly, a difficult step to take. And once you take it there’s no turning back. But the reward is it usually gets the job done, and done quickly, and in the end for more money than the drip-drip method. Though I can’t prove that.

7401 E Thimble View Way sold in March 2008 (pre-Lehman) for $1,575,000. And in 2011 it was listed for $1,650,000, and after one year and no sale they called it quits. Then, I’m guessing, after waiting 4 long years for a better market to appear – which has yet to appear – they bit the bullet and listed it this February for $1,100,000 and sold it for $975,000 in a very respectable 34 days.

6261 E Vista Del Canon was listed for $1,595,000 then $1,495,000 for almost 8 months, and nothing happened. Then one bright and sunny day this January it was relisted for $1,195,000, went to contract 22 days later and sold shortly thereafter for $1,150,000.

7322 N McManus Trail was listed for $1,495,000 for more than one year with no sale. What to do. Well, they dropped it to $1,250,000 in one fell swoop and it went to contract 11 days later and sold for $1,200,000. Just like that.

Alternately, some sellers opt for the drip-drip method to ease the jolt of getting to the right price and to make sure that no money is left on the table. 
It’s like a layaway plan in reverse. Though in this case you already have the merchandise and continue to pay month after month to try and get rid of it.

Like this house. It sold in 2004 for $1,200,000 and was listed in 2009 for $1,795,000 (talk about pie-in-the-sky). But $1.795 just didn’t cut it and after years of price cuts it finally dropped to $1,000,000 and sold this February (almost 6 years later) for $925,000.

There are countless examples of homes that took the drip-drip path to a sale and many others that are still on the market. And most end up selling for what they could have sold for long ago, or even less, and with much less pain and ongoing expense.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

cutting prices

Surprise Surprise, with June drawing near we’re starting to see an increase in the number of homes with price cuts. And unlike a month or two ago they’re not all coming from the lower end of the market. Increasingly we’re seeing cuts - some fairly meaningful, some token – at the $1,000,000+ range.

Still no game changers though, nothing to rouse a buyer to jump in and write an offer.

See all the homes with a price cut in the last 7 days

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the first 4 months

As shown in 3 Charts; showing the number of homes sold & Median Sold Prices from January – April,  for the years 2004 – 2015.

First up, (and by far the most positive & important number) the number of single family homes sold up to $999,999. Important because homes sold up to $999k are the bulk of the market – about 94% of all the homes sold in the Catalina foothills in recent years.  

 

Then there’s the number of homes sold at $1,000,000 & UP.
A tiny fraction of the total homes sold, about 3% so far this year.  But, unfortunately for sellers, about 20% of the total homes listed for sale. (in 2006 $1,000,000+ sales were 16% of the total homes sold)

 

And Median Sold Prices which have been the most onerous burden for many home sellers, who, if they bought between 2005 – 2008,  just can’t get out from under. 

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recent sales in the $700’s

As we go up in price the number of homes in play goes down, and more of the homes that do sell sell below the stated range.

32 homes for sale – 8 in contract – 4 sold in the last 30 days = 8 months inventory.
Like homes in the $600’s this price range is also seriously flirting with becoming a buyers market, though with 8 homes in contract that should change.

But unlike the $600 price range, homes in the $700’s took their sweet time finding a buyer, 165 CDOM. And they sold for just 93.4% of list price (vs.. 45 CDOM & 97.8% for the $600 range). And of course longer days on market and a wider gap between list and sold prices point to a weaker market, with overly optimistic sellers and not so enthusiastic buyers.

Here are the 4 homes that sold;

In Skyline CC,  6619 N St.Andrews Drive was listed for $725,000 (after dropping from $789) and sold for $650,000 ($189/sf) after 176 CDOM. (cumulative days on market). Zillow was spot on at $637,052.  Unfortunately, the sellers purchased it in 2005 for $894,500.

In Cat 9, 6742 N Altos Primero  was listed for $729,900 and sold 167 days later for $660,000 ($149/sf). Had it been up to Zillow it would have gone for $807,063.

In Sin Vacas, 7182 N Placita Sin Codicia was listed for $750,000 (after dropping from $847) and sold for $740,000 after 224 days. And at $738,525 a homerun for Zillow. But not so for the sellers who paid $915,000 in 2006.

4370 E Placita Rio Robles in River Oak Estates did better. It was listed for $779,000 (down from $795) and sold for $740,000 after 96 days. It last sold for $550,000 in 2011, with improvements made since then. Zillow – at $717,830, awfully close for an algorithm.

Click for >

Recent sales in the $300’s

Recent sales in the $400’s

Recent sales in the $500’s

Recent sales in the $600’s

 

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in contract last week, 4/27 – 5/3

From Monday April 27th through Sunday May 3rd  17 single family homes went to contract  in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 6/5/15)

11 were priced from $167,500 to $599,000
  5 from $615,000 to $869,000
  1 at $2,750,000
and that’s it, the weakest week in weeks,

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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April Home Sales in the Catalina Foothills

Overall sales were down from March’s stellar numbers, but all of the lost sales were at the lower end of the market – under $600,000. While $600,000 to $999,999 sold the same number in April as in March (17) and from $1,000,000 UP there were 4 sales vs.. 2 in March.
And sales under $600,000 have been blazing along forever, so a little breather is not out of the ordinary. Also, sales for this April trounced April 2014.

And taken together, average/median sold prices are near the top for the last 15 months

Overall an upbeat month for single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills.

May/June are usually big months for home sales, and with 140 single family homes in contract this May/June are on track to continue that trend.

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behind those pearly gates

My, how time flies. It’s already May, with less than one month to go before the snow birds clear out for the season and high-end home sales wind down.(though they’re pretty wound down already)

Traditionally, more high-end homes, homes listed at $800,000 & UP  ($800,000 is the new $1,000,000) sell between January and June than between July and December. Since 2006 an average of 40% more high-end homes sold in gated communities between Jan & June than July & December. (not counting the odd ball years of 2008 – 2009).

And keep in mind, sales that close in June are for the most part based on deals that were made in May. And here we are in May, in the home stretch, a fine time to check on how things are going behind those pearly gates - for homes listed at $800,000 & UP.

First victim;
Pima Canyon – 7 homes for sale - $1,159,000 to $2,600,000, 0, nothing, nada in contract, 1 sold this year for $975,000 ($252/sf).

Cobblestone – 8 for sale $995,000 to $3,495,000, 0, zip, zilch, in contract, 2 homes sold this year for $1,200,000 ($221/sf) & $630,000 (a short sale for $137/sf).

Sin Vacas – 2 for sale at $849,900 & $1,499,000, 1 in contract at $1,295,000, 1 sold at $950,000 ($283/sf).

Canyons – 2 for sale at $4,495,000 & $7,900,000, 1 in contract at $2,750,000 ($433/sf), and nothing sold.

La Paloma – 8 for sale $800,000 to $1,495,000, 2 in contract at $800,000 & $965,000, and nothing sold.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10 – 7 for sale $899,950 to $1,999,500, 2 in contract at $1,035,000 and $1,695,000, but no sales this year.

Hacienda del Sol Estates – 3 for sale from $1,150,000 to $1,250,000, nothing in contract and 1 sale at $800,000 ($218/sf).

Skyline CC – at $800k+ there’s plenty to go round, 16 for sale from $800,000 to $2,500,000 (with 2 listed at $2.5 vying for attention ), 3 in contract from $810,000 to $1,395,000, and just 1 sale at $945,000.

Ventana CC –  at $800+ there’s an ample supply – 22 homes for sale $849,000 to $7,000,000, 1 lucky homeowner in contract at $1,049,000, and an underwhelming 2 sold this year - $975,000 ($266/sf) & $1,350,000 ($200/sf).

Sabino Mountain – 4 for sale from $865,000 to $1,499,000, 1 in contract at $1,490,000, 1 sold at $845,000 ($223/sf).

The score, 79 for sale behind those pearly gates and 9 sold this year. Not a pretty picture, not for May it’s not.

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recent sales in the $600’s

where it appears the wheels start to get wobbly

57 for sale – 7 in contract – 7 sold in last 30 days = 8 months inventory. A market with 8 months inventory is usually considered a weaker market, a market teetering into buyers market territory. And the change occurred abruptly, just by jumping from $500k (with 5 months inventory) to the $600k price range.

But the homes that sold, sold fast, in an average cumulative days on the market (ACDOM) of just 46 days. And that is super fast – and much faster than homes sold in lower price ranges. And they sold very close to list price – 97.8% of list price. And those numbers point to a strong market.

Could it be that buyers are out there with $$$ burning a hole in their pockets but there just aren’t enough homes of the type they are looking for. Maybe not enough newer homes, or, …??…or, maybe just one of those things 

Here are the 7 sales;

6988 N Pusch Peak Place was listed for $629,000 last October, dropped to $615,000 and went to contract in February and sold for $610,000 ($194/sf) last month – 137 DOM. Zillow had it at
$548,570.

5704 N Williams Drive a 2005 built home listed for $645,000 in February, went to contract 27 days later and sold last month for $630,000 ($164/sf). Zillow hasn’t picked up this latest sale but zestimates its current value at $647,529.

5455 E Camino Bosque  - in Skyline Bel Air - was listed for $649,000, went to contract 38 days later and sold for $615,000 ($133/sf). And a near bulls-eye for Zillow at $621,623.

Another quickie in La Paloma,  5780 N Calle De Los Camarones was listed on February 6th for $650,000, went to contract 39 days later and sold for $640,000 ($240/sf) last week after selling one year ago for $620,000.  Zillow wasn’t too far off at $616,659 .

In Alta Vista,   6035 E Fangio Place didn’t dilly-dally either. It sold for $632,000 ($204/sf) from a $669,000 list price (reduced from $695) in 73 days. And once again Zillow nailed it at $639,033.

And 5761 N Campbell Avenue sold in 5 days, even though it is adjacent to Campbell Ave, which is usually a difficult location to sell. And it basically sold for list price, listed for $678,000, sold for $677,500 ($198/sf). But it’s newer, built in 2005. And there’s very little, almost none, to choose from that’s newer, in that price range and in the old foothills. And get this, it sold for $700,000 in 2007, one of the lightest losses from buying then and selling now that I’ve come across. And at $720,139 Zillow was even more bullish.

And 4601 E Quivira Drive in Coronado Foothills wasn’t far behind. It sold in 6 days – listed for $699,000 it sold for $699,000 ($200/sf). Zillow liked it at $743,341.

Click for >
Recent sales in the $300’s

Recent sales in the $400’s

Recent sales in the $500’s

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the trifecta of wishful pricing

couldn't help it, had a laugh when I noticed this today in the MLS,

Brand New Spec Home completed in 2004 and listed for $1,600,000 - no takers

Off the market in 2005

Relisted in 2006 for $1,995,000 – no takers
reduced, reduced, reduced to $1,595,000

it Sells in 2006 for $1,450,000

In 2007 the 2nd owners (who paid $1.450 one year ago) list it for $1,999,995

it Sells in May 2008 for $1,150,000

In 2013 the 3rd owners (who paid $1.150 in 08) list it for $1,449,000
reduced, reduced, reduced to $945,000

it Sold the other day for $820,000

And at $1,027,109 even Zillow blew it,

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