The Catalina Foothills

where oh where are the $$$million homes selling

and not selling.

21 homes listed at $1million and UP have sold so far this year in the Catalina Foothills
(15 sold for a $$million or more, 6 sold for less than a million).

Here’s where its all happened and didn’t happen, along with the number of $$million homes still for sale. (click the highlighted subdivision names to see all the homes currently for sale)

Community	# Sold	# For Sale
Alta Vista	3	0
Canyons	2	2
Canyon Vista Estates	1	2
Catalina Foothills Est 10	2	5
Catalina Foothills Est	1	6
Cobblestone	1	7
Cobo Catalina Hills	1	1
Finisterra	2	2
Foothills ll	1	1
Sin Vacas	1	1
Skyline CC	2	9
UnSubdivided area	1	?
Ventana CC	3	13
Pima Canyon	0	7
Hacienda del Sol Est	0	3
Eleven Arches	0	1
Sabino Mountain	0	0
Coronado Foothills Est	0	4
La Paloma CC	0	5
Total	21 sold	69 for sale

And there are another 20 homes listed at $1million+ scattered here and there throughout the Catalina Foothills.

Unlike recent years when either Ventana or Pima Cyn lead the charge of big buck sales, not so this year - PC hasn’t had a single sale at $1million+ (and only 1 sale under a million this year) and while Ventana has had a few, it’s down 50% from this time last year. I wonder, have they locked the front gate at PC and thrown away the key, what else could it be, 1 measly sale in 6 months is insane. Unheard of.

by this time last year there were 6 sales, 4 of them over $1.0
2013 – 13 sales, 8 over $1.0
2012 – 11 sales, 8 over $1.0.

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Months of Inventory in the Catalina Foothills real estate market

Months of inventory (MOI) is a good measure of supply & demand in a real estate market. It measures the time it would take, at the current rate of sales, for all the homes for sale (the inventory) to sell.

6 MOI is considered a normal, balanced market. Much less than that, with a tighter supply of homes, it becomes a sellers market - with much more it becomes a buyers market.

Following are the MOI numbers based on sales over the last 6 months, and broken down by price range -showing the number of homes currently for sale and the number of homes sold from Jan 1 to the present.
calculated like this;  241 (for sale) ÷ 311 (sold)  = .7749 X 6 (months) = 4.6 MOI

	# for sale	# sold	MOI
$0-$599k	241	311	4.6
$600-$999k	104	79	8
$1.0-$1.499	61	15	24
$1.5-$2.0	13	5	15+
$2.0 - UP	15	1	90
Total MOI	434	411	6.3

 

And here are the MOI numbers based on sales over the last 2 months.

	# for sale	# sold	MOI
$0 -$599k	241	126	3.8
$600 - $999k	104	36	5.8
$1.0 - $1.499	61	6	20
$1.5 - $1.999	13	2	13
$2.0 - UP	15	1	30
Total MOI	434	171	5

The MOI numbers for the last 2 months are better, (lower is better) than those for the last 6 months, because the market improved in the last couple of months, especially for homes priced at $600k and UP. Though, as you can see, it is still very much a buyers market at $1.0 & UP.

Click the Market Snapshot tab at the top of the page for the most recent MOI numbers.

**if you’re counting $1,000,000 sales this year -  the 1st table above shows 21 homes listed at $1.0+ sold this year (15 + 5 + 1) And that’s correct, all 21 were listed at $1.0+, but only 15 sold at $1.0+, the other 6 sold for under $1.0.

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in contract last week, 6/15 - 6/21

From Monday June 15th through Sunday June 21st  19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 7/24/15)

16 were priced from $176,500 to $540,000
2 at $695,000 & $887,000
1 at $1,599,000 (the biggest, and only the 2nd deal this year in Pima Cyn. By this time last year 6 homes had SOLD in PC)

Summer is now in full swing and contract activity is bound to drop

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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Joesler Estate to contract

$2,750,000

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YTD

A quick summary of where we are with single family home sales and sold prices in the Catalina Foothills, from January 1st – June 19th, last year v. this year.

# of homes Sold up to $999,999

2014 - 326

2015 – 382 (a 17% increase)

# of homes sold at $1,000,000 & UP

2014 - 21

2015 – 15 (a 28% decrease)

Average/Median Sold Prices

2014 -  $499,018/$419,000

2015 - $481,831/$420,000 (a 3% drop in the average, and let’s call the median a draw)

So even with a healthy bump in sales, prices STILL haven’t budged from last year.

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higher, better, newer, nicer

5345 E Mission Hill Drive, in Skyline CC. A beautifully crafted top to bottom 2014 renovation and remodel of a 1980 home on one of the highest lots, with the most stunning views, in the Catalina Foothills.

 

 

 

Covered patio with views and no-mow, no-water emerald green turf,

 

the Greatest of Great Rooms with kitchen, dining and living areas surrounded by walls of glass and forever views.

 

 

 

More views from the Master Bedroom

 

and from the opulent Master Bath

 

And all of it tucked behind this smartly classic exterior

6670 sq. ft, 5 Bedrooms/6 Baths, massive great room, pool, 3 car garage - all on the entry level, with the game room and wine room down below. Day and night, this home is remarkable.

$1,950,000

5345 E Mission Hill Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Troy Goodwin at Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)

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in contract last week, 6/8 – 6/14

From Monday June 8th through Sunday June 14th  21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 7/21/15)

14 were priced from $237,500 to $529,000
6 from $699,999 to $859,000
1 at $1,185,000

Another good haul for homes priced into the $800’s

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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take me higher

Flipping thru recent sales in the Catalina Foothills I noticed a handful that stood out because the sale prices were higher than the norm.

In Cimarron, where the average/median sold price this year is $457,452/$466,637, 5733 N Via Amable sold the other day for $830,000 (212/sf). The highest sale price in Cim since 2011.

Likewise in Coronado Foothills estates, where the average/median sold price this year is $512,550/$508,750, 6525 N Longfellow Drive sold the other day for $980,000 ($199/sf) - the highest sale price since 2012. And there’s a home in contract listed at $1,185,000 ($314/sf).

In Catalina Foothills Estates 6, where there’s been just one other sale this year, for $465,000, and the average/median for the last 3 years is $444,083/$442,500, with the highest sale at $499,000, 6235 N Camino Escalante sold the other day for $790,000 ($233/sf)  - from an $800 list.

In the Canyons, 3508 E Secret Canyon Place sold yesterday for $2,400,000 - after just 3 months on the market - the 2nd highest sale since 2009. (the other was $3.7 in 2014).

5322 E Gleneagles Drive sold for $1,302,000 ($339/sf) last month in Skyline CC - the highest sale this year and the 2nd highest since 2012 -  and the highest $$/sf sale since 2008.

Sold last month at $1,600,000 ($324/sf) 4675 N Via De La Granja was the highest sale in Cat 10 since 2012.

In Cobblestone, 7322 N McManus Trail sold for $1,200,000 ($212/sf) the highest sale in Cob since Feb 2013.

Other subdivisions have yet to reach new highs this year. Amongst them – La Paloma, Pima Canyon, Hacienda del Sol, Ventana CC, Shadow Hills, Foothills ll …

This is not a comprehensive list, it’s just those I’ve noticed recently. But I wonder if this isn’t a sign that buyers are more confident and are now more willing to go further out on a limb to get the homes they want. Could be.

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on this HOT day in June

I just updated the Market Snapshot data and the market is fit as a fiddle for homes listed up to about 1$million.

Homes for sale up to $600,000 are still selling like crazy – no news there - and now homes listed up to $999k have also caught fire; the inventory is down to a trim 5.6 month supply of homes and there are 30 homes in contract. 

And with 8 in contract homes listed from $1.0 to $1.499 may also be starting to see the light of day.  

Check it out – Market Snapshot

Usually there are fewer buyers looking in June but those that are are usually not just tire kickers.

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what’s a great view worth

In a blog post the other day - $$/sf sales this year – I talked about the value to buyers of a spectacular view, citing 3 homes that recently sold in Skyline CC - “all 3 had one thing in common, ‘take your breath away’ city views from way high up in Skyline. Without the views, my guess is they’d have sold for 20 – 25% less”

And, conveniently, today I came across an archived article from 2010 at WSJ.com that addresses the value of views to well off 2nd home buyers. And it goes without saying that many of our high-end Catalina Foothills home buyers are 2nd home or retirement home buyers.

Rich Just Want a Room (or 20) with a View

When the wealthy buy a primary residence, their top three priorities are fairly predictable.

“Reputation of the area” is first, which translates to the “right address.” West Palm Beach, Fla.? Wrong address. Palm Beach, Fla.? Right address.

According to the annual Wealth Report from real-estate brokerage Knight Frank and Citi Private Bank Wealth Report, the second priority for rich primary home buyers is security and the third is design. Size ranks fourth, while price ranks seventh and proximity to schools is last.

When it comes to buying a vacation home, however, the priorities of rich real-estate buyers gets scrambled. Their first priority? View. Second is climate and third is reputation of the area. Price ranked fifth (slightly higher than the primary-home ranking) and proximity to schools again ranked last.

This is a report by a real-estate firm, so not surprisingly, the survey found that the wealthy are bullish on buying real estate. And more wealthy investors in their survey cited property as a “good investment” this year than any other investment class. Half said residential real estate would be the best-performing property asset class in 2010.

In other words, add large grain of salt.

Still, the fact that “view” ranked above climate, reputation, price and size for vacation homes bears considering. What the wealthy want from a vacation home is to get away from it all. A giant window overlooking the waves or sunset or white-capped mountain tops can help wipe away a lot of stress. Who cares about the address?

Maybe high-end home builders should focus less on creating non-view homes in the same high-end neighborhoods (i.e., Aspen, Colo., Palm Beach, etc.) and more on selling homes in lesser locales with great views.

How do you rank “view” in your second-home priorities?
                                          …………………………………….

You can remodel the kitchen and the baths, get rid of the fuzzy carpets and the popcorn ceilings, but you can’t remodel the view.

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the first 5 months

As shown in 3 Charts; showing the number of homes sold & Median Sold Prices for homes sold from January – May,  for the years 2004 – 2015.

First up, (and by far the most positive & important number) the number of single family homes sold up to $999,999. Important because homes sold up to $999k are the bulk of the market – about 96% of all the homes sold in the Catalina foothills this year. 

 

Then there’s the number of homes sold for $1,000,000 & UP.
A tiny fraction of the total homes sold, about 4% so far this year. But, unfortunately for sellers, about 20% of the total homes listed for sale. (in 2006 $1,000,000+ sales were 16% of the total homes sold). And as is all too obvious sales at $1.0+ have been bumping along the bottom and gulping for air for 6 years now.

 

And Median Sold Prices which, even though they have improved, have been the most onerous burden for many home sellers, who, if they bought between 2005 – 2008,  just can’t get out from under.

If the preceding commentary sounds familiar, it should, because I lifted it from last month’s report – the first 4 months   (why reinvent the wheel)

These charts can also be found by clicking the Market Snapshot tab up-top.

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in contract last week, 6/1 – 6/7

From Monday June 1st through Sunday June 7th  21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ.  (link expires 7/11/15)

14 were priced from $219,500 to $569,000
4 from $600,000 to $987,000
3 at $1,000,000, $1,490,000 & $1,799,000 – 3 deals at $1million+ in JUNE

Fewer contracts than recent weeks, nevertheless, a well rounded week, with something for everyone

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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getting to the right price

up in the Canyons, 7391 N Finger Rock Place was listed in April 2012 for $2,995,000. And after 3 years and 9 price cuts last month it dropped to $1,995,000 and sold yesterday for $1,995,000 cash, $320/sf.

And there’s another one in contract, listed at $2,750,000 that should close any day now – leaving just 2 homes for sale in Canyons. A situation that, just a couple of years ago, seemed very unlikely.

Finger Rock is the 14th home sold at $1million+ in the Catalina Foothills this year 
vs.... 17 sold same period last year, But who’s counting.

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recent sales at $1,250,000 to $1,499,999

27 single family homes for sale – 3 in contract – 1 sold in the last 30 days = a hefty 27 months supply of homes. Though you may feel differently if you’re a buyer, that there’s not nearly enough to choose from.

1 Sold - 5322 E Gleneagles Drive – the very special, gorgeous, gut-renovated beauty on a spectacular view lot in Skyline CC, listed at $1,395,000 and sold for $1,302,000 ($339/sf). at $947,151, Zillow sure missed the boat.

And that's it, short and not so sweet.

One of the homes in contract was recently in contract twice before and fell out both times and has now found a 3rd buyer in less than 2 months. Astounding. Say what you will, I don’t know why it fell out. But one thing’s for sure, priced at about $1.5mil in this market, it has to be something special to have gone to contract 3 times in less than 2 months. Meanwhile, none of the 27 homes still for sale show any record of having gone to contract even once.

We don’t need more homes for sale, we need more ‘better priced’ homes for sale.

Recent sales in the $300’s

Recent sales in the $400’s

Recent sales in the $500’s

Recent sales in the $600’s

Recent sales in the $700’s

Recent sales in the $800’s

Recent sales in the $900’s

Recent sales $1,000,000 to $1,249,999

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$$/sf sales this year

Since January 1st 358 single family homes have sold in the Catalina Foothills at an average of $168/sf.

And just 9 of those 358 homes sold for $275/sf or more. 
Where are they located and why did the sell for so much more than the average.

1. One was a small 1939 Joesler in the old foothills that sold for $515,000. The house itself was in pretty rough shape. But it sat on nearly 4 acres. So I’m guessing it was a land sale, someone is going to split the lot and build two or three homes, and, unfortunately, maybe knock down the Joesler.  It sold for $275/sf.

 

2. A home in Alta Vista that sold in one day for $987,000, $280/sf. I never got to see it so I have no idea why it fetched $280 - the 2nd highest $/sf sale in AV this year, the highest came in at $284/sf (see # 3.) the next highest was $217 and down from there.

3. And the $284/sf sale in Alta Vista - $1,100,000. When it went to contract I wrote “And sometime between then and now had a total, and pretty splashy, renovation. Which apparently paid off”. So a splashy and apparently, very appealing renovation.

4. A very nice Tuscan in Sin Vacas that had gorgeous city views sold for $1,275,000, $290/sf in 2 days.

 

5. Another home in Sin Vacas, newer, built 2013, sold for $950,000, $283/sf.

 

6. A lavish and luxurious new spec home in Cat 10 sold for $1,600,000, $324/sf. With few spec builders willing to bet the farm these days, lavish, luxurious and pricey spec homes are virtually non-existent.  

 

and 7. 8. and 9. are all in Skyline CC.
3 homes in Skyline CC sold for $278, $280 and $339/sf - $500,000, $750,000 and $1,302,000 respectively. And all 3 had one thing in common, ‘take your breath away’ city views from way high up in Skyline. Without the views, my guess is they’d have sold for 20 – 25% less. 

Really great - ‘knock your socks off’, ‘take your breath away’ - city views are much harder to come by than mountain views. For one simple reason. There are thousands more homes in the lower foothills than there are high up in the Catalinas - where you need to be for those ‘take your breath away’ city views. Whereas, while they’re not quite a-dime-a-dozen, down in the lower foothills you’ll find yourself staring at beautiful mountain views from almost everywhere, say, the parking lot in front of Walgreens or Safeway.

And with a few exceptions almost all of the spectacular city view homes are located in upper-end, gated foothills communities way high up in the Catalinas – the Canyons, the mountain estates at Ventana, Cobblestone, the upper reaches of Skyline CC, Sin Vacas,  Finisterra, and Sabino Mountain. And that’s about it. And a majority of them are big, expensive homes, 4500 – 6500 sf or more, at $1,000,000 & UP, UP, UP. If you’re looking for 3500sf with spectacular city views; my advice is, be patient, or flexible, or both, because the pickings are going to be slim. 

PS - during the same Jan to June period at the height of the market in 2006 – 10X as many homes sold for $275/sf or more as today.

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in contract last week, 5/25 – 5/31

From Monday May 25th through Sunday May 31st  29 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 7/5/15)

22 were priced from $179,000 to $575,000
5 from $639,000 to $699,000
1 each at $1,049,000 and $1,495,000

Another big week for homes priced up to $599,999, and a smattering of interest above it.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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discretionary purchases

As I’ve mentioned before, many of the upper-end homes sold in the Catalina foothills are discretionary purchases - 2nd homes, retirement homes – purchases with little or no urgency to buy. And as we’ve seen in recent years most of those buyers are perfectly willing to wait for the right house to come along at the right price.

It took a while but that perfect storm of the right buyer, the right house and the right price just came together in Ventana.  A home that sold in 2010 for $2.2 was listed in 2012 for $2.6.  And, not surprisingly, nothing happened.

But time has a way of chipping away at asking prices. And in late April, after 4 or 5 prior price cuts, it dropped again, this time to $1,799,000 ($281/sf), and today it’s in contract.

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May Home Sales in the Catalina Foothills

May sales were strong, even stronger than March, with the 2nd highest monthly sales since Jan 2014.

Thru May, the number of homes sold up to $999,999 is UP 18% over 2014, while the number sold at $1,000,000+ is DOWN almost 19%. But at $1.0+ we’re talking small numbers, 16 sold last year thru May, 13 this year. Barely a ripple in the pond.

Upper-end sales thru May of 2014 were the slowest in the previous 10 years. And then, uncharacteristically, in June the market suddenly woke up and there was a  surge of sales thru October (21 sold June – Oct. v. 16 sold Jan – May) which ultimately made for a better year than expected.

Prices didn’t set any records in May, they drooped a little, but more or less held their own.

Thru May, avg/med sold prices are down a scosh from last year – almost –4% avg and –.3% median. So, as I’ve said before, look on the bright side, no price bubbles on the horizon.

There are 143 homes currently in contract – 135 listed up to $999k, 8 from $1,049,000 to $2,750,000 -  which should boost June sales numbers across the board.

 

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considering Cobblestone?

Cobb is a quietly elegant established community in one of the best locations (I think) in the Catalina Foothills. It’s at the very top of Campbell Ave, bordering the Coronado National Forest, tucked away and private, with big city and mountain views. Yet just 2 minutes to the many temptations of La Encantada and the restaurants and shops at the adjacent corners of Skyline & Campbell. Homes in Cobb were built from the 1980’s well into the 2000’s.

Currently, there are 7 homes for sale – 1 in contract – and 2 sold this year.

The 7 for sale are listed from $1,000,000 to $13,900,000 – 1 in contract at $1,495,000 - 2 sold for $630,000 (for a short sale that started in 08 listed at $1,625,000) and another sale for $1,200,000. And that’s it.

So, despite the good location, elegant entry, etc., buyers are not breaking down the doors in Cobblestone. And aside from the doldrums of upper-end market I think part of the problem is that some of the homes that were built in the 80’s and 90’s are in need of updating and remodeling. I showed 3 or 4 homes in Cobb this year to 3 different buyers and considering the asking prices and the need for updating/remodeling, for them it just didn’t add up.

And the money is part of it, but it’s not all of it. My 3 buyers are coming here from out of state. And making a big move to another part of the country is one thing, but to then have to go through a big remodeling job on top of it, in an area you’re not familiar with and where you have no trusted suppliers, is more than many buyers are willing to tackle.

And this is not unique to Cobblestone, it’s an issue that is holding up the sale of many older upper-end homes throughout the foothills.

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getting back in the black in Shadow Hills

On March 17th I did a piece on SH and was surprised to find there was a 12 month supply of homes for sale - 14 homes for sale, 7 sold in the last 6 months = 12 months of inventory – a heavy load – and way more than I expected.

But that was then. Now, just 2 1/2 months later, 8 homes have sold since then, there are now 7 for sale, resulting in a much more competitive market with just 4 months inventory. And there are 5 homes in contract. So SH is back to its old self, popular, in demand and selling.

Prices in the overall foothills market scraped bottom in 2012, and are up 11% since then.
Shadow Hills did better; 
Jan 1 – May 31, 2012, 5 homes sold at a median sold price of $436,000
Jan 1 – May 31, 2015, 9 homes sold at a median sold price of $515,000 – an 18% increase since 2012.

However, for those who bought at the 2006 peak, SH prices are still down 19% from those wild and carefree days.

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