The Catalina Foothills

Zillow’s Zestimates

Trying to Zestimate home values based on data gathered from public sources and plugged into an algorithm is a pretty tall order. And doing so in the Catalina Foothills where even on the same street homes values can vary widely, seems next to impossible. But that’s the much ballyhooed goal Zillow set for themselves.

And since I haven’t pestered them in a while and it’s pretty hot and slow out there I thought this would be a good time to do it. So I pulled all the recent sales in the Catalina Foothills for homes listed at $700,000 and Up (13 since July 1st)  and following are the actual sold prices v. Zillow’s Zestimate along with the % difference.

You may have a different opinion, but the way I look at it, if the Zestimate is within 5% of the sold price it’s a bulls eye, a BINGO!

5121 E Oakmont Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718, a foreclosure, sold for $781,000
Zestimate; $978,370 / 25% higher

2291 E Placita Sin Muerte, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $700,000
Zestimate; $862,448 / 23% higher

4239 N Via Bella Catalinas, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $680,000
Zestimate; $870,378 / 28% higher

5735 E Finisterra, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $739,000
Zestimate: $750,168 / 1.5% higher  BINGO!

6745 N Catalina Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $715,000
Zestimate; $614,131 / 14% lower

2985 E Manzanita Ridge Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $759,000
Zestimate: $755,426 / .5% higher  BINGO!

4419 E Quivira Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $745,000
Zestimate: $759,621 / 2% higher   BINGO!

5680 E Paseo Del Fuente, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $800,000
Zestimate: $752,348 / 6% lower, close but no BINGO!

7261 E Ventana Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $1,035,000
Zestimate; $1,197,745 / 15+% higher

4435 E La Paloma Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,020,000
Zestimate; $915,505 – 10% lower

5372 E Gleneagles Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,270,000
Zestimate; $1,370,154 / 8% higher

4076 N Sabino Mountain Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $1,450,000
Zestimate; $828,010 / 43% lower

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,450,000
Zestimate; $1,517,234 / 4+% higher   BINGO!

So 4 BINGO’s, 1 awfully close but no BINGO, and 8 that are anywhere from 8 to 43% off the mark. Not a stellar performance. Overall it’s clear that Zillow is more bullish, and sometimes much more bullish, on the foothills market than buyers or sellers.

Or, how bout this. Rather than being too bullish or just plain wrong, perhaps it’s because the algorithm is ahead of the curve and we’ll soon see the higher prices it’s predicting.  Aha!

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 7/20 – 7/26

From Monday July 20th through Sunday July 26th  17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 8/28/15)

14 were priced from $185,900 to $599,000
3 at $649,000, $990,000 & $995,000
and that’s it!

Not bad for a Hot week in July, unless you’re one of the 79 homes listed at $1million+, then it sucks.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

finally, a big sale in Pima Canyon

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive sold for $1,450,000 ($260/sf), cash, from a $1,599,000 list price – 90.6% of list price in 106 days. Quick for that price range but I figured they’d get closer to list. It’s a very impressive house with to-die-for mountain views, it’s newer and it’s in Pima Canyon. Key items that are found on many upper-end buyers wish list. And it was beautifully presented, easy to show and it showed very well.

But for some reason sales in Pima Canyon are way down this year. Of course upper-end sales are down all across the foothills. But in past years PC has held its own when sales were down in other areas of the foothills.

Incredibly enough, this is only the 2nd sale this year in PC, the other was for $975,000
– 6 remain for sale – and there’s nothing in contract.
During the same period in previous years;

2014 – 6 sales
2013 – 14 sales
2012 – 11 sales
2011 – 8 sales
2010 – 6 sales
2009 – 4 sales 
2008 – 4 sales

7707 last sold as a new spec home for $1,400,000 in 2012 after starting out in 2010 asking $2,250,000. But that was then, in the pits of a faltering economy, falling real estate prices and the dark shadow of gloom and doom. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

more good news for home sales

Fannie Mae ups its outlook for home sales

Published: July 23, 2015

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)—Mortgage-finance giant Fannie Mae raised its 2015 forecast for U.S. home sales on Thursday, chiming in with other economists who see the market ramping up this year.

Fannie FNMA, -1.55%  now expects total home sales in 2015 to hit an eight-year high of 5.75 million, according to the company’s July forecast. Fannie’s June estimate pegged 2015 home sales at 5.65 million.

The company raised its forecast for sales of new single-family homes, as well as used residences.

“We expect to see strong sales, lean inventories, and rising confidence through the rest of the year, which should support increased home-building activity and give an added boost to economic growth,” said Doug Duncan, Fannie’s chief economist.

Fannie’s outlook tweak comes on the heels of the Mortgage Bankers Association pumping up its forecast for new home-purchase mortgages to $801 billion this year, up $71 billion from its prior estimate. In 2014 purchase-mortgage originations hit $638 billion.

“The housing market recovery has shifted to a higher gear,” MBA economists wrote. “More sales are being financed, and more applications are being approved. And we expect that this trend will continue into 2016 and beyond, as the broader economy and job market continue to improve.”

Sales figures for used homes, the bulk of the market, show that purchases recently hit the fastest pace since early 2007. The Great Recession started later that year.

Some of the recent buying growth may reflect buyers rushing to lock in mortgage rates before they rise further, and economists said the recent flurry of activity isn’t sustainable. Even if purchase rates pull back in upcoming data releases, economists do expect home sales to trend higher as the jobs market and larger economy continue to firm.

Read more: Existing homes sell at fastest pace in more than eight years

However, the housing sector also faces challenges. While a growing economy is helping more borrowers afford loans, some say lenders’ strict credit standards are making it too tough for young families and others to qualify for credit. Also, there are still pools of deeply distressed borrowers in the country.

Read all about it;
Fannie Mae ups its outlook for home sales

And then there’s this from Reuters;
U.S. home sales approach eight-and-a-half-year high, prices surge

U.S. home resales rose in June to their highest level in nearly 8-1/2 years, a sign of pent-up demand that should buoy the housing market recovery and likely keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise interest rates later this year.

The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 5.49 million units, the highest level since February 2007.

"The economy really has the wind at its back now," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York.

                        ……………………………………………………………………..

Here in the Catalina Foothills we’re experiencing a similar growth in home sales.

YTD - 498 single family homes have sold. Except for 2013 (with 545 sales) this is the highest number of homes sold since 2006 (511 sales) during the same Jan – July period. Here’s hoping it continues.

Recently I’ve met with a few of the top remodeling contractors in Tucson and all of them report that they’re busier now than they have been in years. So busy that they’re having a hard time keeping up with the demand. And that’s an exceptionally good measure of the mood of homeowners.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 7/13 – 7/19

From Monday July 13th through Sunday July 19th  20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 8/22/15)

18 were priced from $242,000 to $599,992
1 at $775,000
1 at $1,089,000

Last week’s contract numbers are an improvement from the weak performance of the 2 previous weeks and a reminder that the market is unpredictable, despite my prediction of a summer slowdown.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

fear of the unknown

A rarely found and perfectly charming and updated Joesler at 4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Road, which otherwise would have sold in a jiffy, had been on the market for quite some time due, I’m sure, to an adjacent vacant building lot on its north side that had been split off from the Joesler property. 

I had more than a few calls from buyers to show it and before going any further I always explained the situation with the vacant lot. But because the house looked so great buyers wanted to see it for themselves. So I showed it 3 or 4 times and everyone was crazy about the house, they loved it, but in every case the vacant lot quickly squashed their enthusiasm.

Wonderful house, fair price, nice location, but because there was no telling what type house -how big, how tall, how wide, how pretty or ugly - was going to be built on that lot, no one was interested in going any further. And I’m sure that was the stumbling block for other buyers. And perfectly understandable since the new build had a high potential for blocking the mountain views.

 

At one point I suggested the obvious to the listing agent, which she was well aware of, they should just build the house so buyers would know what they were getting into and there would be no fear of the unknown. I haven’t been up there in almost a year, so maybe they did build.

In any case it sold yesterday for $625,000 ($224/sf). Someone got a really wonderful Joesler with, hopefully, enduring mountain views.

The point is, if there’s a vacant lot that when built could impact the views of a house you are considering buying, be sure to thoroughly check it out. There are very few good vacant lots left in the foothills and you can be sure that one day they will be built.

4430 N Hacienda Del Sol Rd,Tucson, AZ 85718

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’ll it be, 85718 or 85750

The Catalina Foothills is essentially divided into two zip codes, 85718 and 85750, with Craycroft Rd. the dividing line between the two. (a smidgen of the foothills extends into 85704)

Most of the buyers I meet have a preference for one or the other. And aside from the homes that are for sale in each zip their preference is often based on the look, feel and geographic and convenience features of the two areas - which are fairly distinct.

85718 is more developed, with more plazas, restaurants, bars, boutiques, shopping and, dare I say, more pizzazz.  And it’s closer to downtown and to the University of Arizona. And if you’re looking for an older adobe home or a Joesler, you are, with very few exceptions, talking about 718. Because 718 is where John Murphey and Josias Joseler first established the Catalina Foothills Estates, the very first development in the foothills in the 1930’s. 85750 came much later. And though not to everyone’s taste, 718 also has many more gated communities than 750.

But 85750 also has its charms. With its main shopping, restaurant and retail plaza at one location, at Kolb & Sunrise, it’s less developed, less busy with fewer cars on the road and a quieter, more family oriented atmosphere than 718. It also has the fantastic Sabino Canyon in its backyard. And if you’re so inclined and have the means there’s nothing like the dramatic terrain and eagles nest views of the Mountain Estates at Ventana.

And beyond that there are also price differences between the two zips, with more higher priced homes in 85718. And, in general, you probably get a bit more home  for your money in 750.

Below is 85718, with 206 homes for sale – bordered on the north by the Coronado National Forest, Craycroft Rd on the east - River Rd on the south and 1st Ave on the west.

 

And 85750, with 192 homes for sale – also bordered on the north by the Coronado National Forest then Sabino Canyon and Sabino Creek on the east, River Rd on the south and Craycroft Rd on the west.

And for you number crunchers, 85718 vs.. 85750 by the numbers. The number of homes for sale, in contract and the number sold since January 1st, along with average/median prices.

85718

206 for sale     @ $903,977/$686,500 (avg/median)
62 in contract @ $642,134/$485,000
236 sold          @ $534,442/$488,000

85750

188 for sale     @ $691,011/$500,000
49 in contract @ $464,514/$399,000
192 sold          @ $470,117/$399,000

As you can see, prices are higher in 718. But it’s the list prices of homes for sale that are way higher in 718, 31% higher than 750. While sold prices are just 13+% higher in 718 than 750.

Why? Because 718 has many more higher priced homes for sale than 750 and higher priced homes are not flying off the shelf. Look at the difference between list prices and sold prices in 718 – list prices are 69% higher than sold prices – because higher priced homes are not flying….

While in 750 list prices are 47% higher than sold prices -  nothing to brag about but not as drastic a gap as 718. 

85718 v. 85750, they’re both in the Catalina Foothills but they look, feel and are different. If you’re new to town be sure to check out both areas.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Bidding Wars Return

No, not here.
But in a number of metro areas across the U.S. bidding wars are making a comeback.

Bidding Wars Return to Home Market

This time, the battles are prompted by too few homes offered for sale,
not easy-to-get mortgages

From WSJ.com
By Kris Hudson

the following are excerpts from the article; JS

Bidding wars, a hallmark of last decade’s housing boom, are making a comeback in a number of metro areas across the U.S. But while the earlier wars reflected enthusiasm fueled by easy-money mortgages, the current froth stems from a market short of homes for sale.

The reasons for the scant supply are myriad, including a much-slower-than-expected recovery in home construction. Yet an equally significant problem is that millions of people aren’t listing their homes for sale because they suspect they can’t qualify for a new mortgage, can’t afford the costs associated with a sale or fear that they won’t prevail in the scrum for the few houses available.

At the end of May, there were 2.3 million existing U.S. homes for sale, enough supply to last 5.1 months at the current sales pace. That is below the six to seven months of supply that the National Association of Realtors says is needed for a balanced market.
(we also have a 5 month supply of homes in the Catalina Foothills)

But in more than one-third of the 300 largest metropolitan areas tracked by Realtor.com, homes listed for sale in June had been on the market for a median of less than two months. A low median figure indicates rapid turnover in inventory as demand for homes exceeds supply.
(the 426 homes listed for sale in the Catalina Foothills have been on the market for a median of 110 days)

Read all about it;   Bidding Wars Return to Home Market

_____________________________________________________________________________

And except for the occasional foreclosure bidding wars are extremely rare in our Catalina Foothills market. But we already know that, it’s not news.

What really popped out at me is the median list price of homes in the 25 frothiest markets. Take Santa Rosa, Calif. at $580,000;

So the median list price in Santa Rosa - a suburb of SF that is awash in tech companies and therefore in high paying jobs - is just a smidge (4%) higher than the median list price ($559,000) of homes in the Catalina Foothills. And, yes, I’m sure that $559,000 buys a helluva lot more house here than there, but that’s not the point. The point is our prices are in the big leagues but we don’t have the jobs to feed the till. And look at Seattle, Denver, Portland, San Diego, etc.

Believe me, I understand that many people come here for reasons other than jobs – for 2nd homes, for retirement, to get away from it all. And this is a great place to do it, but looking at that list of prices sure makes our numbers look steep and perhaps helps explain why home prices in the foothills are rising so stubbornly. Because so many of our purchases are discretionary purchases, 2nd homes, retirement homes - luxuries that, unlike homes near good paying jobs, buyers can do without.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Spec homes this year

Spec homes were wildly popular in the Catalina Foothills during the good old days of the real estate boom. Sunday open houses were big events and literally jam packed with lookers and buyers. But especially in Pima Canyon, which was a mad house, because it had many more specs than anywhere else in the foothills. But of course it all came tumbling down with the market crash of 2008 and over the next few years spec building ground to a halt.

But it now appears that specs are making a bit of a comeback, and that’s a good thing. Because it shows confidence in the market and because buyers like new homes, and right now there are very few no new spec homes available – because they’ve all sold.

So this would be a good time for you builders to start building. And while you’re at it you may want to consider building a contemporary. Not a sw contemporary, but a simple, modern, contemporary – like these.

Recent spec home history, such as it is;

In 2012 - 4 specs sold from $1,010,000 to $2,500,000

2013 - 3 specs sold from $779,000 to $1,680,000

2014 – 4 specs sold from $825,000 to $1,370,000

During 1st 6 months of this year – 7 specs sold from $428,000 to $1,600,000

So more specs sold in the first 6 months of this year than during the entire years of 2012 – 2014. But with no new spec homes available, that may be it for the year.

And just to reminisce, in 2006 - 35 specs sold in the foothills from $565,000 to $3,100,000 – 28 of them went for $1million+ – and 13 of them sold in Pima Canyon, from $1,090,000 to $3,100,000 – at a median sold price of $2,150,000 @ $437/sf – a feeding frenzy. Those were the days.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

simple, modern, one story luxury homes

Just the other day I mentioned two modern foothills homes, one old, one brand new, both single story and both of a style seldom found in the Catalina Foothills.

And according to this WSJ article modern, simple design is gaining in popularity along with a strong desire to live on one level.

From WSJ.com

The Ranch House, Reinvented
By KATY MCLAUGHLIN

the following are excerpts from the article; JS

Homeowners and architects are reinventing the low-slung ranch house with high ceilings, wide-open spaces and luxury amenities, all on a single floor

When Amy and Matt Ross decided to build their dream home in Scottsdale, Ariz., they wanted modern style, high ceilings, indoor-outdoor integration, energy efficiency and vast family gathering spaces—all on one floor.

The result was a 5,900-square-foot rambler with walls of windows.

“We like a sprawling floor plan and not just a box on top of a box,” said Ms. Ross, a 45-year-old small-business owner.

The Rosses are among a new breed of home buyers who want a single-story house for reasons unrelated to creaky knees. To capture these buyers, architects and builders are reinterpreting one-story living and putting a modern twist on the classic midcentury ranch house.

Luxury single-family homes—the top 5% most expensive houses—are a hot commodity today, according to data examined by realtor.com, a San Jose-based listings site. The median sale price for a luxury single-story last year was $510 a square foot, 18% more expensive than during the peak of the housing bubble in 2006. Multistory luxury homes are selling for a median price of $350 a square foot, realtor.com data show. Transactions of single-story homes are 20% higher than in 2009, while multistory homes are selling 3% more frequently than in 2009.

Not every single-story home buyer wants full-blown modernism. Rick Bell, president of Landmark Custom Homes in Southwest Ranches, Fla., is currently building an 8,600-square-foot, one-story spec home he plans to list for about $3.8 million. The home will have a “rear wall of glass, 20-foot ceilings, and the outside and inside will feel like they are together,” Mr. Bell said, though the look won’t be completely modern or “cubist,” he said. His bet on a contemporary look and single-story construction adds proof to the popular theory in the building community that the Mediterrean-style mansion, once so popular, has jumped the shark.

“They say ‘Med is dead,’ but I think Med is just resting a bit,” said Mr. Bell. Meanwhile, he’s focusing on modern finishes and long, clean lines.

Read all about it - The Ranch House, Reinvented

PS- WSJ is a subscription site, if you can’t get in just Google the article’s title and click that link,
                          ……………………………………………………….

98.6% of spec homes in the foothills  come in three flavors (I made up the 98.6%, but I’ll bet it’s very close); the ubiquitous Southwest contemporary, the over the top Tuscan and, now and then, a Mediterranean.But a simple, modern contemporary, almost never.

A little variety couldn’t hurt, I hope the trend to modern style homes makes its way here. And single story, well, on that, we’re way ahead of the trend.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 7/6 – 7/12

From Monday July 6th through Sunday July 12th  13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 8/14/15)

all 13 were priced from $224,900 to $595,000
And that’s it! Nothing higher.

This is the 2nd straight week of weak contract numbers –  there were 11 during the previous week. So it’s beginning to look like the doldrums of summer - with higher temperatures and lower sales - are upon us. And nothing has gone to contract at $1million+ since June 23rd.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

the 1st 6 months; home sales in individual Catalina Foothills subdivisions

The other day I posted 3 charts showing single family home sales for the 1st 6 months in the overall Catalina Foothills market - from the boom years thru the end of this June. 

And wanting to get more up-close and personal - because knowing what’s happening in your neighborhood is what really hits home - I’ve broken it down into individual subdivisions showing sales and median sold prices for the 1st 6 months of 2006 (the peak year for sold prices) 2014 and 2015.

The %’s are the drop in median sold prices from 2006 to 2014 and the % change, up or down, from 2014 to 2015.

Click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – continuously updated and always current.

Shadow Hills;
2006 – 9 sold at $650,000
2014 – 11 sold at $475,000 (-27%)
2015 – 13 sold at $499,000 (+5%)

Catalina Foothills Estates 1-9;
2006 – 29 sold at $655,000
2014 – 25 sold at $515,000 (-21%)
2015 – 27 sold at $555,000 (+8%)

Catalina Foothills Est. 10;
2006 – 7 sold at $1,085,000
2014 – 3 sold at $815,000 (-25%)
2015 – 6 sold at $700,000 (-14%)

Sin Vacas;
2006 – 6 sold at $1,020,667
2014 – 6 sold at $592,500 (-42%)
2015 – 5 sold at $740,000 (+25%)

Pima Canyon;
2006 – 10 sold at $2,050,000 
2014 – 6 sold at $1,260,000 (-39%)
2015 – 1 sold at $975,000 (-23%)

Cobblestone;
2006 – 0 sold
2014 – 0 sold
2015 – 2 sold at $915,000 (???)

La Paloma;
2006 – 33 sold at $625,000
2014 – 22 sold at $529,950 (-15%)
2015 – 20 sold at $495,750 (-6%)

Hacienda del Sol Est;
2006 – 2 sold at $1,550,000
2014 – 2 sold at $814,000 (-47%)
2015 – 0 sold (???)

Foothills ll;
2006 – 1 sold at $950,000
2014 – 0 sold (???)
2015 – 1 sold at $1,005,000 (???)

Pinnacle Ridge;
2006 – 2 sold at $930,000
2014 – 3 sold at $780,000 (-16%)
2015 – 4 sold at $762,500 (-2%)

Skyline CC Estates;
2006 – 7 sold at $1,195,000
2014 – 9 sold at $775,000 (-35%)
2015 – 10 sold at $605,000 (-22%)

Skyline Bel Air;
2006 – 8 sold at $597,250
2014 – 7 sold at $445,000 (-25%)
2015 – 11 sold at $421,000 (-5%)

Cimarron;
2006 – 6 sold at $762,500
2014 – 13 sold at $420,000 (-45%)
2015 – 11 sold at $475,000 (+13%)

Fairfield/Sunrise;
2006 – 19 sold at $543,750
2014 – 13 sold at $445,000 (-18%)
2015 – 13 sold at $470,000 (+6%)

Ventana CC;
2006 – 21 sold at $1,122,500
2014 – 18 sold at $765,000 (-32%)
2015 – 16 sold at $490,000 (-36%)

Bonita Ridge:
2006 – 6 sold at $630,750
2014 – 3 sold at $415,000 (-34%)
2015 – 3 sold at $420,000 (+1%)

Sabino Mountain;
2006 – 11 sold at $1,060,000
2014 – 8 sold at $576,250 (-46%)
2015 – 8 sold at $571,250 (-1%)

Needless to say there’s a big difference in how different subdivisions have fared in the years since the 2006 peak. Though many of those who’ve been hit the hardest were the highest flyers during the boom – Cat 10, Pima Canyon, Hacienda del Sol, Skyline CC, Ventana, Sabino Mountain. But regardless of where your home is in the foothills, we still have a long way to go before prices get back to where they were.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Gorgeous Minimalist Contemporary

On Sabino Mountain, 4076 N Sabino Mountain Drive, a spec home, sold for $1,450,000 ($317/sf) from a $1,490,000 list in 44 days. Hurrah!!

 

 

 

Perhaps this sale will encourage other builders to think outside the box. And rather than more of the same old thing - yet another Southwest contemporary, an over the top Tuscan or Mediterranean – to consider a simple, true contemporary. What a breath of fresh air.

Meanwhile, valuing it at $823,963, Zillow’s algorithm missed it by a country mile.

4076 N Sabino Mountain Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby’s International Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

the 1st 6 months; home sales in the Catalina Foothills

Here’s a snapshot of single family home sales for the period of January thru June for the years 2004 – 2015.

First up is the upbeat and positive picture of the continuing recovery in the number of homes sold up to $999,999. UP 78% from its bottom in 2009 – though still down 28% from its 2005 peak.

 

 

Followed by the gloomy picture of the ongoing lack of recovery for homes sold at $1,000,000 & UP – a market that has bumped along the bottom since 2009 and is down 32% from last year and an astonishing 80% from its 2006 peak.

 

And finally, the recovery of median sold prices – up 17% since they bottomed in 2012 – nice, but not nice enough, still down 22% from their 2006 peak.

The market is on a slow mend, except at $1million and up - where it’s on a dead end.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 6/29 – 7/5

From Monday June 29th through Sunday July 5th  11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 8/8/15)

7 were priced from $299,900 to $579,000
4 from $675,000 to $899,000
and that’s it!

We can reasonably assume that the low number of contracts is likely due, at least partly, to the July 4th weekend. And whether or not it is also due to an overall sudden summer slowdown is impossible to say. But in a week or so we’ll know. Stay tuned.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

June Home Sales in the Catalina Foothills

Another exceptional month for single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills – the 2nd highest sales (nudging out May by a nose) since January 2014.

That puts home sales thru June 2015 UP 12% over the same period last year.

 

Median sale prices for June were off the charts - higher than any month since January 2011, (and possibly further since I only looked back to Jan 2011), and average sale prices lagged only those of last November and July 2011.

Nevertheless, all that brouhaha aside, average sale prices thru June are still down about 2% from 2014, and the median is up just 1.5%.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

would you buy a home where broadband internet service is not available

Because it’s been high on the list of ‘must have’ features of nearly every buyer I’ve worked with in recent years, and I can’t imagine doing without it myself, I touched on that subject in a blog post last April

And now an article in today’s Wall Street Journal takes it a step further; citing studies showing that homes without high speed internet service are increasingly tougher to sell and sell for less $$ than those with high speed connections. Which makes perfect sense to me – less demand = tougher sale = less $$.    

From WSJ.com

How Fast Internet Affects Home Prices

In May, Kara Burke and Tom Cairns thought they had found their ideal house: a nicely-updated older three-bedroom home in Worthington, Mass.

But they didn’t make an offer because it didn’t have high speed Internet.

“We wouldn’t choose a house that didn’t have electricity,” Ms. Burke, 26 years old, said as she explained why. “It’s right on par with those things.”

As the Internet becomes central to the way Americans work and live, the digital divide is taking on greater economic significance. Students without Internet access at home may struggle to keep up with school assignments. Towns with less access find themselves falling behind economically, researchers say. Now, the availability of speedy Internet service is starting to affect Americans’ biggest purchase: their homes.

Real-estate agents across the country say more buyers like Ms. Burke and Mr. Cairns are turning their noses up at homes without fast Web access. Some studies suggest those buyers are having a keen effect on home prices. A nationwide study released on Monday by researchers at the University of Colorado and Carnegie Mellon University finds fiber-optic connections, the fastest type of high speed Internet available, can add $5,437 to the price of a $175,000 home—about as much as a fireplace, or half the value of a bathroom.

Continue reading - How Fast Internet Affects Home Prices

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The Tucson MLS listing sheet contains the category; Cable Available - Yes or No.
And it is not uncommon to find it is marked Yes, that cable is available, when in fact it is not. Though, perhaps it’s a matter of interpretation. Is DSL Cable, is Satellite tv/internet cable, is dial-up from a phone wire cable. No, none of those are cable. Cable, as it’s commonly understood, is the coaxial cable that Comcast or Cox Cable delivers to your front door to transmit cable tv and high speed internet access. (as far as I know Verizon’s FIOS and Google fiber are not yet available in the foothills) Though, Simply Bits may provide a viable alternative.

But the only game in town in the Catalina Foothills for actual cable access is Comcast. (Cox serves other parts of Tucson). And if having cable is important to you, you should call Comcast or go to their website to check whether they provide service to the home you are considering.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

A mid century gem by Tom Gist

Located at 4161 N Camino Arco this home will be featured in the Tucson Historic Preservation Foundation's upcoming book on the work of Tom Gist, and has been recognized as one of Tucson's Top 50 Modernist Residences. It is also eligible for listing on the National Register of Historic Places.

Serene desert setting

 

 
Designed and built by Tom Gist - Burnt adobe, built 1959, 1775 sf, 3 Bedrooms/2 Baths, Pool, 2 car garage on an elevated1+ acre lot with nearly 360° city, sunset and mountain views. Restored and renovated,  $439,000 ($247/sf) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I previewed it the other day and was so taken by the house, the setting and the views that I just hung out there, chilling, for nearly an hour. 

 

4161 N Camino Arco Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Michelle Hotchkiss – Re/Max Results)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

recent sales in the Catalina Foothills

An adobe charmer in the old foothills, 4755 N Camino Real sold the other day for $725,000 ($224/sf). A very decent price in today’s market. But, unfortunately, the sellers purchased it in a very different market, in June 2006 for $960,000. And try as they might, listing it at $985k, $899K, $849k, no one would take it off their hands until it dropped to $769,000. Mentioned HERE soon after it was listed in 2009. Zillow has it at $679,264.

6382 N Pinnacle Ridge Drive - in Pinnacle Ridge - sold in 2012 for $698,000 and sold again the other day for $755,000 ($213/sf) - in 16 days from a $775,000 list. I co-listed it with Caroline Freedman of Tierra Antigua. This was my first foray back into listing homes after 5 or 6 years of only representing buyers. We liked it and we look forward to representing more sellers. Zillow had it at $775,557

Also in Pinnacle, 4358 E Pinnacle Ridge Place sold in one day for $900,000 ($202/sf) from a range price listing of $887,000 to $949,000. Previous sale was in 2004 at $779,000.
Zillow - $965,653.

 

In Ventana CC, 6414 N Desert Wind Circle sold for $980K in 2010, $750K in 2013 and for $725K the other day – after 398 days of trying for $879, $799. Zillow had it at $772,088.

Also in Ventana, 6331 N Whaleback Place sold for $800K in 2004, $795K in 2011 and again yesterday for $800k, again. You can’t find a tighter grouping than that. Yet Zillow had it at $916,424.

In La Paloma, 6330 N Cadena De Montanas sold for $699K in 2005 and again the other day for $735K ($263/sf) from an $800K list in 127 days. And even though they bought in 05 it looks like the sellers did OK. But the listing points out that a great deal of remodeling was done.
So maybe not. Meanwhile, Zillow - $618,906.

535 E Monaco Place, a spec home built on the foundation of an older home that was knocked down, and located at the very northwest corner of the foothills was listed in April 2014 at $1,100,000 jumped to $1,150,000 dropped to $1,050,000 then to $999,999 last November and stuck to it and sold recently for $975,000 ($305/sf). Zillow’s algorithm may have short circuited on this one, they have it at $430,171.

And in Skyline CC, a fixer-uppers fixer-upper. 5271 E Mission Hill Drive – built 1967, 5308 sf, 2 story - on a high lot with outstanding views of the entire Tucson valley and beyond, sold the other day for $545,000 ($103/sf) after 200 days on market from a $650,000 list.

$103/sf sounds awfully cheap, but, you’d have to see it in person, given its rough condition this is not a property that your average Joe ordinary buyer would even consider.

But for someone with the experience, the time, the daring and determination and a big fat checkbook, it could pan out. Skyline CC has had a string of homes on great city view lots sell this year – mentioned HERE (#’s 7,8,9 toward the bottom of post).

The fact that someone is willing to tackle this project is a sign of confidence in the market in general, and in Skyline CC in particular. And yet another testament to the value of great city views. Zillow’s algorithm obviously did not do a walk thru of this property and sight unseen valued it at $1,094,657 ($206/sf) – twice its sale price.

 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 6/22 – 6/28

From Monday June 22nd through Sunday June 28th  23 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 7/31/15)

16 were priced from $245,000 to $590,000
6 from $649,000 to $799,000
1 mega deal at $2,750,000 

Last week I said ‘Summer is now in full swing and contract activity is bound to drop’. Well, with highs in the 103 – 110 range summer is definitely in full swing. But so are buyers, they are not cooling their heels in the shade. Not yet anyway. 

The sales numbers for June are still dribbling in but from what I see so far it looks like June sold prices may hit a new high for the year.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home