The Catalina Foothills

what’s happening in Catalina Subdivisions, part 2

In case you have just tuned in this is a continuation of an earlier post done a few days ago

**the number of homes sold represents sales for the last 6 months.
Click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – continuously updated and up to the minute up-to-date.

Fairfield/Sunrise, you name it F/S has it. From 1500sf townhomes to 4000+sf SFR’s. In its various guises it’s attractive to empty nesters, snow birds, families and first time buyers.
And it covers a lot of ground too, spreading from just west of Kolb Rd all the way to Craycroft, with homes built from the 70’s – 90’s. Sticking with Single family homes there are;

11 homes for sale ($225,000 to $530,000) @ avg/median - $391,455/$349,000
3 in contract ($500,000 to $634,000) @ avg/median - $569,833/$575,000
15 sold ($275,000 to $635,000) @ avg/median - $468,227/$475,000
Another performer, with a lean 4.4 months of inventory and the prices for homes in contract and sold far higher than those of the homes for sale. Now that’s unusual. Whereas, back in March it was just the opposite – with high priced listings and low priced sales.

Pima Canyon, the newest upper-end gated community in the foothills with, of course, the newest homes - homes built from 2000 to 2015. Very popular with 2nd home owners, retirees, families with kids and empty nesters. So, very popular. But less popular this year.

5 for sale ($1,195,000 to $2,600,000) @ $1,657,800/$1,400,000
0, zip, zilch. Nothing in contract
2 sold ($975,000, $1,450,000) @ $1,212,500/$1,212,500
For a not so tidy 15 month supply of homes. 2015 has not been good to PC. Back in March when it was sitting on 14 months inventory I ventured; ‘Given PC’s track record of coming out at the top of the heap for high-end home sales I’m going to assume that this is just a temporary setback’.   So much for that.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
Guard gated, homes on 1.3 acre or larger lots, built from the late 80’s into the 2000’s, many on private hilltops with city and/or mountain views.

4 for sale ($995,000 to $1,795,000) @ $1,327,500/$1,260,000
2 in contract ($799,950 & $1,089,000) @ $944,475/$944,475
6 sold ($599,000 to $1,600,000) @ $866,500/$700,000
Chin-chin! a trim and tidy 4 months inventory. But with the price of homes listed far outstripping the price of those in contract and sold, the alleged 4 months inventory is strictly on paper, while in reality it may turn out to be just a tad longer. 

the Canyons
Ultra-luxe, guard gated, tucked away at the highest reaches of the Catalina Foothills with some of the highest prices to match.

2 for sale ($2,195,000 & $7,900,000) @ $5,047,500/$5,047,500
0 in contract
2 sold ($1,995,000 & $2,400,000) @ $2,197,500/$2,197,500
A fairly fantastic year for the Canyons. It wasn’t that long ago when it was wallowing in unsold homes and those that had sold went for peanuts v. list prices.

Pinnacle Ridge
homes built in the 2000’s by A.F. Sterling, lots approx 1/2 acre +/-, one and two story homes, very popular with families, very convenient to the retail plaza at Swan & Sunrise and Catalina Foothills high school, some homes with good mountain views, gated. Location, nicely built and appointed newer homes, district 16, the 21st century version of Shadow Hills.

2 for sale ($750,000,$825,000) @ $787,500/$787,500
1 in contract ($580,000)
4 sold ($630,000 to $900,000) @ $763,750/$762,500
You couldn’t ask for anything more – a 3 month supply of homes with list and sold prices singing the same tune.

Coronado Foothills Estates
High in the foothills with the potential for gorgeous city and mountain views, very convenient location to Swan/Sunrise shopping, homes built from early 1960’s to current day. A wide variety of sizes, styles and prices with many older homes offering ample opportunity for fix-up on great view lots. District 16 schools, not gated.

12 for sale ($384,500 to $1,500,000) @ $718,150/$584,200
4 in contract ($274,900 to $825,000) @ $497,225/$444,500
11 sold ($385,000 to $1,020,000) @ $659,818/$699,000
Another good news story with just over 6 months inventory and list and sold prices in sync.

La Paloma CC
In the last 12 years La Paloma has spread its wings and been developed far beyond its original borders, which included the subdivisions of La Paloma Ridge Estates, Las Palomitas, Paloma del Sol and Vista Serena on the north side of Sunrise Dr and La Paloma Estates on the south side. And that was it.

That is, until the early 2000’s when AF Sterling stepped in and developed La Paloma, a long single street, Placita Pajaro, that juts north just past the entrance to La P on the north side of Sunrise. And at about the same time, on a large tract of land on the south side of Sunrise, they developed the Villages 1, 2, 4 & 5 at La Paloma. And they sold like wild fire. And for good reason, there was nothing else like it in the foothills. Nothing, with new, well built homes in a super convenient, central foothills location on small, easy care lots in a guard-gated community, and all with the name La Paloma. Which couldn't hurt.

Looking at the more recently developed areas - La Paloma and the Villages 1,2, 4 & 5.
7 for sale ($400,000 to $699,000) @ $543,929/$499,500
2 in contract ($485,000 to $549,000) @  $517,000/$517,000
7 sold ($385,000 to $530,000) @  $476,143/$505,500
So a perfect 6 months inventory with list and sold prices in reasonable agreement.

And the original sections of La P, the Ridge Estates, etc. on the north side and La Paloma Estates on the south.
11 for sale ($745,000 to $1,425,000) @ $1,039,273/$995,000
1 in contract ($800,000) huh, 1 in contract,
6 sold ($489,100 to $937,500) @ $693,850/$680,750
Nothing perfect here, not unless you’re waiting in the wings for a deal to appear. An 11 month supply of homes and list and sold prices that are nearly as far apart as Venus and Mars (119,674,400 kilometers, give or take)

Enough is enough, more to come.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

is this supposed to be good news

Pima County Bond to Fix Roads in 2021
Most road repairs could be between 2021-28

It’s 2015 and the roads are a mess,

Read it and weep,

on this last day of August

It’s almost over, just 14 hours - 13 minutes & 12 seconds and it will be September and, hopefully, the beginning of the end of the sluggishness of August.

I just updated the Market Snapshot (which was overdue) and the August effect is apparent. The number of homes in contract and sold are down and the months of inventory is up.

A grand total of *54 homes went to contract in August – 42 were priced from $100,000 to $500,000 – 11 from $625,000 to $975,000 – and 1 lucky homeowner priced at $1,100,000.

That’s the market for August. The longest lasting, slowest month of the year.

*we may see a few additional contracts from the weekend’s ‘activity’, the last hurrah for August

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

what’s happening in Catalina Foothills subdivisions,

If this seems faintly familiar it’s because I did the same piece earlier this year. But that was in March, at the beginning of the season and we’re now (still) in August, and well past the end of the season, in one of the slowest months of the year.

**the number of homes sold represents sales for the last 6 months.

Let’s start with a classic, the ever popular Shadow Hills. Popular because of its excellent foothills location, larger lots with a variety of home sizes and styles and quiet meandering and mostly level streets that encourage both kids and grownups to gather, walk and bike. 
And prices that aren’t off the charts. Plus it’s in District 16. Most of the homes were built in the 1980s and 90’s with a handful in the 2000’s.

9 homes for sale ($380,000 to $699,000) @ avg/median - $540,222/$534,000
3 in contract (($305,000 to $545,000) @ avg/median - $445,000/$485,000
17 sold  ($350,000 to $605,000) @ avg/median - $490,706/$509,000
With just a 3 month supply of homes for sale and sale prices very much in sync with list prices SH is the poster child for a flourishing sellers market. In my March report it was a very different story in SH – I concluded - a heavy load of 12 months inventory – good for buyers, difficult for sellers.

And for something a little different, the Villages 2, 4 and 5 at the Villages of La Paloma. Also a very popular spot, though with newer homes (built 2002 – 2005) on smaller lots and with a different clientele than Shadow Hills. More part timers, snow birds, empty nesters, fewer year round families with kids.

3 for sale ($475,000 to $699,000) @ avg/median - $557,833/$499,500
2 in contract ($485,000, $549,000) @ avg/median - $517,000/$517,000
6 sold ($385,000 to $530,000) @ $490,500/$510,250
A 3 month supply of homes for sale = a sellers market for the Villages, with list and sold prices in the same ballpark. And also a turnaround from where things were in March.

Foothills Clusters, sorta like Shadow Hills, but smaller homes on smaller lots at lower prices, with a wonderful high-up in the foothills location and District 16 schools. Homes built from 1970 to early 90’s.

3 for sale ($250,000 to $334,000) @ $303,000/$325,000
3 in contract ($262,500 to $364,000) @ $308,500/$299,000
13 sold ($220,000 to $399,500) @ $305,923/$285,000
With demand so high and supply so low - there is a 1 month supply of homes for sale - FC is a lean and mean sellers market. 5 of the homes sold went for list price or higher. Overall they sold for 98.88% of list price. But FC was also doing very well (with 6 months inventory) back in March when I said - ‘This is the market that’s driving the foothills real estate bus. HONK HONK!! ‘

Sin Vacas, guard gated, middle to upper end $$$, high in the foothills, views, homes built from 1980 thru the day before yesterday.

6 for sale ($585,000 to $1,499,000) @ $887,917/$834,250
0 in contract
7 sold ($650,000 to $1,275,000) @ $791,429/$725,000
Even with its upper middle to upper-end price range Sin Vacas is selling very well – with just a 5 month supply of homes for sale.

Skyline Bel Air, great central foothills location, location …with buyers renovating older homes and sometimes flipping them – and with most homes built in the 60’s and 70’s there’s both a need to renovate and an ample supply of older homes to do so.

7 for sale ($325,000 to $799,000) @ $575,557/$499,000
2 in contract ($485,000, $658,500) @ $571,750/$571,750
11 sold ($340,000 to $615,000) @ $435,309/$421,000
A lean 4 month supply of homes. But the list and sold price numbers are way out of whack. Why. Because the 3 highest priced listings (mid to high $700’s) are pushing the price envelope for Skyline Bel Air and of course upping the avg/median. It’s not unheard of to sell in the $700’s in SBA – 6 sellers have managed to do so sine 2006 – but that was 6 out of 154 homes sold. And 4 of the 6 sold in either 2006 or in pre-Lehman 08, and only 2 since then. That’s not to put a damper on SBA, I’ve a cheer leader for it since long before it started to turn around in 2012. It’s just a fact.

Alta Vista, upper middle to upper $$$, east foothills location, most homes built in the 90’s to 2000’s, styles run from SW contemporary to SW contemporary to Mediterranean to Sante Fe. District 16 schools and popular with families,

4 for sale ($579,000 to $995,000) @ $696,750/$606,500
1 in contract at $795,000
7 sold ($565,000 to $1,100,000) @ $858,857/$973,000
For a squeaky tight 3.5 month supply of homes for sale. Back in March the supply was tipping past 9 months.

Cimarron, lower to upper middle, east foothills location, homes built from the late 70’s into the 90’s. District 16 schools.

9 for sale ($365,000 to $735,000 then 1 @ $1,150,000) @ $665,100/$629,000
0 in contract
8 sold ($265,000 to $830,000) @ $471,091/$452,887
With almost a 7 month supply of homes Cim is straddling the edge between a balanced market and the beginnings of a buyers market. And with nothing in contract and the gapping gap between list and sold prices, right now it’s a crap shoot.

So, you may be wondering, with all these subdivisions doing so well and homes selling and the months supply of homes (with the exception of Cimarron) down below 6 months, it appears the market is going gangbusters. And it is, in the aforementioned subdivisions. But we’ve just begun to scratch the surface. Stay tuned. The plot is bound to thicken.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

someone got a beautiful house

7461 N Moon Spirit Lane Tucson, AZ 85718 in Cobblestone just sold for $975,000 ($267/sf) from a $1,000,000 list (reduced from a previous listing at $1,129,000) in 184 days. Zillow is onboard at $999,107.

But Zillow is still showing the old listing with the old photos and old list price - $1,129,000 - that dropped to $1,000,000 way back in May when it was relisted with a new brokerage and listing agents and new much better photos. The above link is to Realtor.com, showing the correct listing, photos and price.

It was one of the best looking houses on the market (my opinion). It feels very substantial, with lots of character and charm yet also feels very fresh and today. So why did it take 184 days to sell.

 

 

 

Could be;

- the old photos did not do it justice, not one wee bit. And the new listing with the new photos didn’t get into the MLS until it was relisted in May (after 3+ months on the market) and by then many buyers and their agents had already seen it on the MLS/internet (including on Zillow) and passed it by. (you only get one chance to make a great first impression)

- Zillow never posted the new listing with the reduced list price, and to this day continues to show the old listing, the old photos and the old price - $1,129,000 – a significant faux pas.

- it has just 2 1/2 baths. Could be a deal killer for some buyers who want 3 1/2 or more.

- it has a beautiful covered patio, backyard and pool area but they’re all west facing. A major turnoff from mid May to mid August when the afternoon/evening sun roasts everything in its path.

- because of its orientation the Catalina’s are barely visible from the house – with mostly west facing views to the less impressive and pretty far off Tucson Mountains.

- that’s probably enough to give more than a few buyers pause.

If I were the homeowner or listing agent I’d be furious with Zillow – check out their outdated version of the Moon Spirit listing and compare it to Realtor.com's and you’ll see what I mean. It’s one thing for their zestimate to be off, or way off, target,(everyone takes them with a grain of salt) but it’s quite another for them to be featuring a 3 month old canceled listing and not showing the actual current listing.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

here’s how the market’s doing today

7841 E Highview Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $440,000 in April 2010 and for $375,000 today. Zillow nailed it at $388,341.

801 E Camino Alberca, Tucson, AZ 85718 practically made a killing. It sold for $390,000 in 2012 (the very bottom of the market) and for $443,000 today in just 1 day. Zillow was in at $484,306

5337 E Camino Rio De Luz, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $755,000 in 05, for $570,000 in 2012 and for $580,000 today. Zillow was on track at $567,858.

3715 N Pantano Road, Tucson, AZ 85750 sold for $550,000 in 2001 and for $527,150 today -  Huh! Even Zillow disagreed calling it at $671,630

7356 E Quiet Mountain Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 made out better, sort of. It sold for $762,418 in 2013 (sans pool), they added a pool with all the trimmings (guessing $50k+) and sold it today for $825,000.  The algorithm must have overlooked the pool and trimmings, since Zillow called it at $763,359, its 2013 sale price. Which is basically what they got once you subtract the cost of the pool.

6258 N Campo Abierto, Tucson, AZ 85718 made out like a bandit. It sold for $549,000 in 05, for $446,000 in 09 and for $487,500 today. They tried for $575,000 but didn’t get an offer until they dropped to $500,000. Zillow had even higher hopes calling it at $543,761.

It’s a tough market, a market that’s not offering sellers much, if any, payback on their investment.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 8/17 – 8/23

From Monday August 17th through Sunday August 23rd  13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 9/25/15)

10 were priced from $299,000 to $489,500
3 from $634,500 to $795,000
and that’s it!

Can you believe it, it’s still August. And in more ways than just slow real estate activity August is a slow-go month. By mid August I’m ready for August to be over, but I wake up everyday and it’s still August.

The numbers for the previous weak August week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

 

Joesler still brings home the bacon

though a bit less than hoped 
A 1936 mud adobe Joesler located in the old Catalina Foothills, 5645sf (including guest house) on 13 acres and listed for $2,750,000 ($487/sf) sold today for $1,950,000 ($345/sf) after 574 days. It was also listed for $2,200,000 with 8 acres.

5353 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718, 

 

This the 11th Joesler to sell since January 2012 and by far the largest in size of the house, the land and the price. The other 10 sold from $399,000 to $895,000.
3 Joeslers remain for sale from $1,100,000 to $3,250,000. Call if you are interested.

Zillow absolutely muffed it at $1,200,640.

5353 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718
 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

buyers and sellers want to know, how’s the market doing

Someone asked me that recently and I said;
It’s selling well, relative to recent years at less than 1$million and not selling well at all at 1$million+ and UP, with prices rising ever so slowly. (and yes, this is treading old ground but there is some new material that may surprise you)

Here’s why I said that;

For homes listed up to $999,999; more single family homes have sold from January thru July this year than in any year (except for 2013) since 2005 – the peak year for sales. 
Thru July 2005 there were 669 sales, this year there were 501. So we’re climbing but still 25% below the peak.

And looking at it that way you can easily dismiss the peak years as an aberration, a quirk -  brought on by easy money which lead to the irrational exuberance that sent sales thru the roof – and therefore see today’s numbers as more normal and sustainable. And that may be.

But there’s more to it. Those peak year sales were not just a boom-time phenomena. Being so fixated as I am (and many of us are) on the boom years I tend to forget that more homes sold in the pre-boom years, the so-called ‘normal’ years before the boom, from 1998 – 2003 than are selling today ,12 to 17 years later.
Here are the number of  homes sold up to $999k January thru July;
1998 – 589
1999 – 663
2000 – 640
2001 – 600
2002 – 568
2003 – 645
2015 – 501

Ain’t that a kick in the pants – more sales in 1998 than today. And virtually the same sales in 1999 as in 2005, the peak with 669 sales. But of course $999k was worth more and bought more house in 1998 – 2001 than it does today. But even so, if I include sales at all prices, the noted pre-boom years are still way ahead of sales today.  And equally mindboggling is the slowdown in sales has occurred in these recent years when baby boomers were (supposedly) retiring in droves and have by now (supposedly) accumulated the funds to acquire 2nd homes and retirement homes, in droves. Perhaps so, but where are they.

On the bright side sales are up 60% from their bottom in 2009 (311 sales thru July 09) v. 501 this year, with no signs yet of a pullback - though the current stock market retreat may prove otherwise.

Sales at $1million+ and UP have been, and continue to be, another matter. They STINK and have stunk for the last 6 or 7 years. And historically they had a very short sweet spot, a blip really, from 2004 – 2007, and have fizzled ever since.

And sales at $1million+ were nothing to write home about during the pre-boom years either.
Here are the number of homes sold at 1$million+ January thru July;
1998 – 4
1999 – 5
2000 – 12
2001 – 17
2002 – 14
2003 – 16
2015 – 21
So you have to ask yourself if the boom-time bubble of $million+ home sales was just that, a one time bubble that burst and blew away, far, far away. 

As for sold prices, we know they are trending upward but at a snails pace. And as I inferred the other day it looks like it could be eons, if ever, before they get back to where they were during the boom.  

 
And just to rub it in I just noticed this article on CNNMoney 
Home prices are soaring across the country, increasing in 93% of markets in the U.S., according to the National Association of Realtors, with 19% experiencing double-digit growth.

For the record, the median price of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills is $549,000. Compare that to the locations and median prices listed in the article and ask yourself,  are we really on a competitive footing with places like San Diego. Which perhaps answers the question of where all the baby boomers are headed, surf’s up.

That’s how the market is doing. Good, in a grudging sort of way, for homes under 1$million.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 8/10 – 8/16

From Monday August 10th through Sunday August 16th 10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 9/18/15)

8 were priced from $148,900 to $410,00
1 at $699,000
1 at $1,250,000

The lowest numbers this year. But what can you do, it’s August.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

recent Catalina Foothills single family home sales

4860 N Paseo Del Tupo, Tucson, AZ 85750 – in Sunrise Presidio Village – sold for $505,000 ($154/sf) from a $529,000 list in 129 days. It last sold in 2002 for $460,000 – so 13 years and the sellers basically broke even. It was also for sale in 2014 for $560,000 and in 2013 for $590,000 & $615,000 and nothing happened. Zillow was close at $521,370.

5732 N Camino Arturo, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Shadow Hills – sold for $510,000 from a $540,000 list in just 65 days. But the sellers paid $520,000 for it in 2014. And prior to that it sold for $605,000 in 2005. Calling it at $503,798 Zillow was on their game.

2651 E Ozona Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 – in Las Lomas De Kino – an enchanting Sante Fe style mud adobe, sold at list price, $545,000 ($204/sf), in 3 days. Having purchased it for $185,000 in 1990 the sellers had lots of wiggle room. And Zillow nailed it at $540,423.

Not so for the sellers of 7020 N Camino De Fray Marcos, Tucson, AZ 85718 – in Vista De Las Candelas - They paid (a lot) $725,000 in 2013 and somehow came to the realization that that was a mistake that probably wouldn’t fly again and listed it for $579,000 and sold it for $546,000 in 97 days – which is the upper end of recent sold prices in VDLC. Meanwhile, Zillow’s algorithm scoped out the sold prices of neighboring homes and came up with $494,988.

Buying at $725,000 in Vista De Las Candelas is, to put it mildly, pushing the envelope.
The vast majority of homes sold since 2008 (42 out of 45 sales) sold in the $200,000 to $500,000 range. The old adage applies – you make your money when you buy not when you sell.

8501 E Solar Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 - Solar Village – started out in January at $825,000 and dropped and dropped again til it hit $695,000 and sold for $675,000 ($166’'/sf) after 147 days. And here again the sellers took a big hit, they paid $945,000 in 2007. Zillow was awfully close at $650,319.

A quick, no pain, pretty good gain sale at  6570 N Silversmith Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 in Silverton. Listed for $725,000 it sold for $700,000 ($184/sf) in 6 days. Clear sailing, the sellers paid $455,000 in 2001, a 54% increase over 14 years. At $703,915 the big Z nailed it again.

2701 E Calle Sin Pecado, Tucson, AZ 85718 – in Sin Vacas – sold for $640,000 in 2004 and for list price, $715,000 ($230/sf) today. On paper, a pretty decent outcome. But between buying in 04 and selling in 15 the sellers did a major remodel - kitchen, baths, floors and more. So they too took a big hit.  Zillow muffed it at $384,498.

Talk about prices going nowhere fast - 7137 N Finger Rock Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 – in Foothills ll – sold for $650,000 in 2000 and for $735,000 ($208/sf) today – a 13% increase in 15 years. Zillow was in at $810,463.

And finally, 6755 N Hole in the Wall Way, Tucson, AZ 85750 – in Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates – mentioned HERE the other day.

 

Two things stand out;

- unlike a few years ago, when many sellers tried to ignore the market and listed their homes at unsellable pie-in-the-sky prices, today’s sellers are stepping up to the plate, facing the music and doing what they have to do to sell.

- and because they are, current Catalina Foothills sold prices are slowly wiping away the excesses of the boom. With the effect that, increasingly, foothills sold prices are being reset to current, more realistic levels – which puts the market on firmer ground - while boom era prices continue to fade into the distant, fuzzy past.

 

 

 

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills home

Best Deal on a Newer Luxury Home in the Catalina Foothills

Bar None.
6700 N Saint Andrews Drive, impeccably designed and custom built by John Kline in 2009, all masonry construction, over 6,700 sf, 4 BR/5 Baths + 2 half baths, plus office & detached guest house on a 1.5 acre city, mountain, & golf course view lot in Skyline Country Club. Pool/Spa, 3+ car garage, single story, no interior steps. Pure quality through and through, it’s the real thing. 

It just dropped to a range price of $1,800,000 - $2,500,000.
At $1.8 it’s $266/sf.

 

More info, more pictures
6700 N Saint Andrews Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Lynn Kline Realty)

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

resetting prices at Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates

6755 N Hole in the Wall Way, a 2002 built, 6400sf, 2 story soft contemporary on approx 1 acre, sold for $2,495,000 in 2006, $2,200,000 in 2010 and for $1,700,000 today.  

And they didn’t let it go easily either; it was listed for $2,200,000 in October 2013 but didn’t draw a buyer until it dropped to $1,799,000 this April.

Yet median sold prices in the foothills are virtually the same today as they were in 2010. So going by the numbers it should have sold for about $2,200,000, which is what it sold for in 2010. But it sold for half a mil less. Why?

I touched on this in an earlier post, asking;
Why are upper-end homes selling for less today than they did in earlier years, even though foothills average/median sold prices are higher today than they were back then.

And I answered - the market for homes listed at $1million+ has been bumping along the bottom since 2009 and so far this year has the lowest sales since 2008.  So  in order to sell (aside from pulling their hair out) many sellers of upper-end homes must be willing to price their homes to sell in today’s upper-end market, such as it is, (big supply – little demand). And ignore the fact that average/median sold prices are UP from when they bought 4 or 5 or even 10 or 12 years ago. Because the rise in prices has everything to do with price increases for homes listed and sold in the $100,00 to $900,000 range – which is about 96% of all sales – and nothing to do with $$million+ sales. Sad, but true.

FYI - Zillow was in at $1,982,201

The buyers did quite well and the sellers did the best they could.

see thefoothillsToday.com
to find your Catalina Foothills home

in contract last week, 8/3 – 8/9

From Monday August 3rd through Sunday August 9th 19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 9/10/15)

15 were priced from $160,000 to $500,000
3 from $635,000 to $800,000
1 at $1,000,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

And just for the heck of it I looked back to this same week last year and there were also 19 contracts. But with fewer low priced and more high priced contracts than today.

If you recall last summer, out of nowhere, we had a rare and unexpected surge of high priced deals - mentioned HERE   HERE  - but so far this summer August is just being August. Sit back and enjoy it.

Many of the things you can count, don’t count. Many of the things you can’t count, really count. – Albert Einstein

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Tucson Housing Survey

I participate in a monthly housing survey conducted by Credit Suisse. The following are the results of the July survey which covers the entire Tucson metro market, not just the Catalina Foothills. Nevertheless, the results indicate that the overall market is on the mend, with strong demand and slowly rising prices. Which is very much inline with what’s happening in the Catalina Foothills.

Survey Methodology
Source: Credit Suisse
We survey real estate agents, as we believe agents provide an accurate assessment of local housing market trends in both the new and existing home markets. We view an understanding of the existing home market as crucial to homebuilders as it represents over 90% of total sales, and trends in the existing home market often dictate trends in the new home market.
Each month, we survey agents about trends in buyer traffic levels, home prices, incentives, inventory levels, and the length of time needed to sell a home. In July, we received responses from 650 real estate agents across the country. We review responses and calculate a diffusion index for each of the questions with levels above 50 indicating positive trends, levels below 50 indicating worsening trends, and a level of 50 indicating a neutral trend.

Now you probably think, well of course real estate agents say the market’s on the upswing, what else would you expect. For what it’s worth, I’ve participated in this monthly survey for 6 or 7 years now, and by and large I’ve found that the results and comments by real estate agents have in fact accurately reflected the ups, downs, good, bad and changing mood of the market over the years.

Tucson, AZ – Trends Picking Up as Confidence Improves and Gradual Rising Prices Drive Motivation

Our Take:
• Strong demand trends continued through July, as our Traffic Index accelerated to 72 from 64 in June. Agents noted the improved confidence from buyers. Gradual increases were seen motivating both buyers and sellers, helping to drive activity. However, agents continue to discuss the limited selection of quality inventory. • Home prices increased again in July, with our Price Index landing at 72 in July from 73 in June.• Inventory contracted, as the time needed to sell decreased in July.

Comments from Real Estate Agents:
• “Prices are starting to creep up a bit which is stimulating
both buyers and sellers.”
• “Good property is hard to come by.”
• “Buyers are more confident and upbeat now than they have
been in years.”
• “Traffic has definitely picked up. Lots of activity on listings.”

There are charts in the survey which support the findings but, unfortunately, I’m not able to copy and paste them to this post.

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On the other side of the fence Housing Wire reports on a survey by Fannie Mae showing that

Consumers don’t think it’s the right time to buy
Fannie Mae survey hits an all-time low

Brena Swanson    August 7, 2015

The percentage of consumers who believe it is a good time to buy dropped to 61%, an all-time survey low­, right as summer is about to come to a close.

According to the July Housing Survey from Fannie Mae, consumer attitudes toward the home-buying environment stumbled last month despite positive home-price change expectations. 

And the share of consumers who believe now is a good time to sell a home didn’t fare too much better, dropping 7 percentage points to 45%.

Continue reading;Consumers don’t think it’s the right time to buy

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That may be true on a national level, but as far as the Tucson market is concerned, and as I was quoted in the Credit Suisse survey (under Comments from Real Estate Agents);  “Buyers are more confident and upbeat now than they have  been in years.” And I’m sticking to it.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

good news for Tucson

Banner-University Medical Center (formerly University of Arizona Medical Center) is expanding in Tucson.

Banner to neighbors: 3 years of construction

From the Arizona Daily Star
By; Stephanie Innes

(excerpts from the article)

Phoenix-based Banner Health’s promised Tucson expansion is taking shape: The new owner of the area’s only academic medical center is preparing to build an 11-story tower and recently revealed plans for a massive north-side outpatient clinic.

Banner officials, in Tucson for nearly six months, have begun meeting with neighbors about expanding and reconstructing Banner-University Medical Center Tucson, 1501 N. Campbell Ave.

Plans include a new entrance anchored by a hospital tower that will be nearly 700,000 square feet. Construction, which will include demolishing nine buildings on the north side of the campus, is to begin next year pending approval by the city of Tucson.

Banner officials say they are also planning a new $80 million outpatient clinic on Tucson’s north side.The expansion anticipates a future when more health care will be done on an outpatient basis and only the sickest patients will be hospitalized.

“We are only adding seven or eight more beds to the hospital. The purpose is a better hospital, not a bigger one,” said Kathy Bollinger, president of Banner-University Medicine Division.

The company, looking to grow its market share in Tucson, is recruiting to fill 132 physician openings — about half replace doctors who have left, and about half are new positions, Bollinger said. Some will go to Banner-University Medical Center Phoenix, but the vast majority will be in Tucson.

The new doctors will come on board between now and next summer, and officials recently announced the first wave of 30 hires.

“This is a game changer for this organization,” Bollinger said. “It’s time to return to this organization’s former best self — and then some.”

Continue reading; Banner to neighbors: 3 years of construction

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And it’s also very good for Tucson. Primarily, more access to better medical care and facilities, but also more jobs. I can’t even imagine how many construction jobs this project will require, plus the huge increase in demand for ancillary goods and services. And with 100 or so more physicians they’ll need to hire more support staff, and some of the new physicians and staff will likely come from out of town and will be looking to buy homes. More jobs all the way around. Just what the Doctor ordered.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

maybe we just need some fresh blood to reinvigorate the market

As I may have mentioned once or twice in the past, the $$million market is not selling very well. Nonetheless, this week 3 new listings came on the market priced at $1,449,950, $2,195,000 and $3,900,000. Who knows, maybe that’s just what we need,

See them at Just Listed and set the Sort By tab to - List Price (High to Low)

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

the Rillito is running

That was a pretty great rain we had yesterday, enough that the Rillito is running this morning. I was on my bike and was able to get ahead of the rushing water and watch as it filled up.

 

 

Anyone who says sunshine brings happiness has never danced in the rain. ~Author Unknown. (and lived in the desert ~John Schneider)

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 7/27 – 8/2

From Monday July 27th through Sunday August 2nd  22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 9/6/15)

18 were priced from $210,000 to $595,000
3 from $725,000 to $825,000
1 at $1,100,000

Impressive numbers for the dead of summer.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

July Home Sales in the Catalina Foothills

This is now the 3rd month in a row of exceptional sales numbers for single family homes.

Thru July home sales are 14% ahead of where they were at this time last year.

Sold prices, however, pulled back from where they were in April, May and June. 

Thru July the average sold price is down .78% and the median is up 2% from last year.  In other words prices are going nowhere fast.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s ailing the Catalina Foothills luxury home market

At a glance, the Catalina Foothills Luxury Home market;

As you can see from the chart even fewer $$million homes have sold during this Jan – July period than in all the lean years since 2009 - when we thought we’d hit bottom and there was nowhere to go but up.

 

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The Luxury market elsewhere; 

As Luxury Market Soars, A Moment for Concern
From; NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Exceptional growth has been the storyline of the luxury real estate market the past few years. No other price segment has rebounded from the housing crash with as much gusto as that of million-dollar-plus homes, which are selling at twice the historical average. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, home sales above $1 million in 2014 grew nearly 9 percent over 2013 — more than double any other price point. And the conservative expectation is that luxury sales will at least repeat that performance this year. Nearly every major city — if not all of them — shattered its record for most expensive residential sale in the last year, and each one has a listing today that, if purchased at asking price, would break it again.

There’s no doubt the industry has a lot to celebrate because of the roaring success on the top end of sales. But underneath that fanfare appears to be a little bit of nervousness that only a few will openly — or even hesitantly — admit. Is the upward trajectory of high-end sales and prices rising too fast?

Continue reading;  As Luxury Market Soars, A Moment for Concern
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The List: Home is where the luxury is

Phoenix Business Journal

By Jesse A. Millard

In Phoenix, recent sales of luxury homes have been strong, according to Michael Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at Arizona State University.

“It’s been the best period since 2006,” he said, adding that prices in the luxury market have drifted upward, though not dramatically.

Continue reading; The List: Home is where the luxury is

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RE/MAX Luxury Report on Metro Chicago Real Estate: Changing Market for Million-Plus Homes Evident in April-June Sales Results

CHICAGO, Aug. 4, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The market for homes selling at a million dollars or more in the metropolitan Chicago area is showing signs of geographical expansion even as sales activity rose to a new post-Great Recession high for the second quarter of the year. The quarterly RE/MAX Luxury Report on Metro Chicago Real Estate pegged second quarter luxury sales at 737 units, 20 percent more than during the same period last year and the most second-quarter sales since RE/MAX began tracking luxury market data in 2009.

The median sales price for homes selling for a million or more was $1,350,000 during the second quarter, unchanged from the 2014 results. The RE/MAX report is a quarterly analysis of $1-million-plus home sales in Cook, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry andWill counties.

While prices in the luxury segment were fairly stable, the geography of the luxury home market showed signs of expansion.  

Continue reading:   RE/MAX Luxury Report on Metro Chicago Real Estate

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Million-dollar home prices soften

Robert Frank | @robtfrank
CNBC

The wealthy continued their buying spree of luxury homes in the second quarter, but there are signs that prices may be nearing a top.

The CNBC Luxury Real Estate Report, compiled by RedFin, found that sales of homes priced at $1 million or more increased 14 percent over the same quarter a year ago to 24,064 homes. Sales of homes priced at $5 million or more jumped 20 percent to 584. (The report tracks sales in major metro areas measured by RedFin, but not New York City).

Still, prices for luxury real estate seem to be getting a bit rich, even for the rich. Prices for million-dollar-plus homes were flat, and prices for homes priced at $5 million or more fell 1.2 percent. The decline marks the second-straight quarter of price drops.

Continue reading; Million-dollar home prices soften

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Seattle’s Luxury Homes Get a Tech Boom Boost
By ALINA DIZIK

July 9, 2015
WSJ.com

The technology boom is pushing its way north up the Pacific Coast, boosting real-estate prices, sparking neighborhood squabbles and creating new demand for luxury homes asking $1.5 million or more.

Continue reading; Seattle’s Luxury Homes Get a Tech Boom Boost

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Sacramento-region luxury home market heating up
BY MARK GLOVER
The Sacramento Bee

The Sacramento region’s upscale home market continued to heat up in this year’s second quarter.

There were 166 closed luxury home sales in the greater Sacramento region in this year’s second quarter, a 37 percent increase over the previous year, according to Lyon Real Estate.

Lyon called it the strongest quarterly showing in the high-end segment since the summer of 2007. Lyon’s report on the region’s upscale homes – those priced at $900,000 or more – was based on data from the Sacramento-based real estate tracking firm Trendgraphix Inc.

“Luxury momentum is very strong and likely to continue through summer,” said Lyon President Pat Shea.

Continue reading: Sacramento-region luxury home market heating up            

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Vancouver Luxury Demand Prompts Increase in Home Flipping

BloombergBusiness
by Katia Dmitrieva

Demand for luxury homes in Vancouver is so high that shoppers are willing to pay a premium for residences that already have buyers, spurring people with deals in place to flip the properties.

Rising demand has led to an increase in bidding wars, more sales over asking price and a greater number of “contract assignments,” where buyers sell their rights to a home before completing their purchases, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada said Thursday. In the first half of 2015, 2,465 Vancouver homes sold for C$1 million ($785,000) or more, up 48 percent from a year earlier, the brokerage said in a midyear report on luxury real estate.

“The person who wins the bid says, ‘Listen, there are two other people here who desperately want that home and will pay C$500,000 more,’” Ross McCredie, chief executive officer of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said in a telephone interview from Vancouver. Losing bidders often offer 20 percent more than the list price, and the buyer flips it for even more, he said. “We’re seeing it more and more.”

Continue reading: Vancouver Luxury Demand Prompts Increase in Home Flipping

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So why are so many other luxury markets doing so well while we continue to stumble along the bottom. 

In the past I’ve mentioned that Tucson lacks a growing industry to provide high-paying jobs and therefore the upper-end market is a  largely dependent on the whims of discretionary buyers - buyers of 2nd homes or retirement homes. Buyers who can afford to wait until everything is just so before they buy. And who are aware that there is little competition for the many upper-end homes for sale.

And that is true. But it was also true in 2004 – 2007 and the luxury market was going gangbusters back then. What changed.

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home

recent Catalina Foothills home sales

5735 E Finisterra, Tucson, AZ 85750 – in Finisterra- sold $739,000 ($179/sf) from a $749,000 list in just 50 days. Previous sales; 2011 - $675,000, 2005 - $750,000. So it’s back to 2005 prices. Yet if you look at sold prices for 2005 v. now foothills prices are still about14% below 05 prices. Nevertheless, Zillow nailed it at $750,471.

2985 E Manzanita Ridge Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 – in Manzanita Estates – sold for $759,000 ($196/sf) from a $759,000 list in 80 days. Once again Zillow nailed it at $756,149. Previous sales; 2003 $680,000.

6039 N Pinchot Road, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Ventana Vista – finally sold for $700,000 ($167/sf) from its most recent list of $775,000 which had been reduced from the $1,400,000 list it started at 707 days ago. Zillow missed the side of the barn on this one calling it at $950,595.

6414 N Desert Wind Circle, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Ventana CC – sold for $980,000 during the depths of the market crash in 2010, then for $750,000 in 2013 and after being listed for $879,000 in April 2014, it sold for $725,000 last month. That just doesn’t add up.

Foothills sold prices are UP about 3% since 2010 and UP a teensy bit since 2013 – yet it sold for 26% less today than it did in 2010. Makes you wonder, did they overpay in 2010, or did today’s buyers (and 2013’s buyers) both just happen to get really good deals. Zillow figured it for $780,627.

4103 N Lindstrom Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 - River Heights Estates – sold for $780,000 ($155/sf) from an $800,000 list that started at $995,000 in Jan 2014. Previous sale; $1,175,000 in 2006, it was fun while it lasted. Zillow was high at $906,869.

8730 N Glenhurst Place, Oro Valley, AZ 85704 - Sunnyslope Amended. Even though it’s in the town of Oro Valley it’s also just within the North area boundaries of the MLS and therefore, technically, it’s in the Catalina Foothills. It sold for $820,000 ($149/sf) from a $945,000 list that was drastically reduced from the $1,449,000 list it started at exactly two years ago. Previous sales; $1,150,000 in 2008 and $1,450,000 in 2006. Zillow highballed it at $929,862. 

And you might think, oh my, what a deal they got. Well, maybe. As long as you don’t mind being the biggest house on the block, in the subdivision. Since 2010 there’ve been 13 other sales in Sunnyslope; 11 from $220,000 to $550,000 and 1 each at $650,000 and $725,000. And that’s it.

6251 N Via Acacia, Tucson, AZ 85718 – La Paloma – sold for $937,500 ($211/sf) from a $965,000 list in a jiffy, 7 days. Previous sale; $1,080,000 in 2003. But hang on, current foothills prices are up 23% from 2003 yet it just sold for 13% less than it did in 2003. Nevertheless, Zillow wasn’t swayed by its prior sale, with not a whimper of emotion they pegged it at $943,957.

6290 N Paseo Valdear, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Alta Vista – is a textbook case for foothills market prices. It sold for $1,005,000 ($281/sf) from a $1,049,000 list in 5 days. Previous sales were $900,000 in 2004 and $775,000 in 2002. But Zillow couldn’t agree less, they had it at $912,820.

And talk about priced to sell, 7261 E Ventana Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Ventana Canyon Estates – sold for $1,035,000 ($252/sf) from a $1,050,000 list in 2 days. Which is a few bucks less than the previous sale for $1,065,000 way back in 2000. Zillow had it at $1,196,006.

Over at 5372 E Gleneagles Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Skyline CC - the sellers paid $1,875,000 in 2006 and after taking a swing at $1,895,000 and $1,599,000 in 2013 they came back in 2015 looking for $1,390,000 and quickly dropped to $1,290,000 and went to contract in 31 days and sold for $1,270,000 ($168/sf). Zillow was pretty close at $1,372,623.

2591 E Calle Sin Ruido, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Sin Vacas – sold for $1,275,000 ($290/sf) from a $1,295,000 list in 2 days. Previous sales; $1,400,000 in 2009, $1,500,000 in 2002.
Yet foothills sold prices are UP from 2002 and about the same as in 2009.
Zillow nailed this one too - $1,241,801.

Why are upper-end homes selling for less today than they did in earlier years, even though average/median sold prices are higher today. Because we have 2 markets in the Catalina Foothills. The market for homes listed up to about $900,000 and the market for homes listed at $1million+. With homes listed at about $900,000 to $1million in a gray area.

Average/median sold prices are higher today due to rising sold prices of homes sold from $200,000 up to about $900,000 – a market that is selling like crazy and pumping up average/median sold prices.

While the market for homes listed at $1million+ has been bumping along the bottom since 2009 and so far this year has the lowest sales since 2008.  So in order to sell many sellers of upper-end homes must be willing to price their homes to sell in today’s upper-end market, such as it is, and ignore the fact that average/median sold prices are UP from when they bought 4 or 5 or even 10 or 12 years ago.

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

how long does it take for a house to sell in the Catalina foothills

This long;
261 single family homes sold in all prices ranges in the last 3 months in an average of 119 days on market.

190 of them were listed from $0 to $599,999 and they sold in an average of 101 days

57 were listed from $600,000 to $999,999 and they dragged it out to 173 days

while the big Kaunas, 14 homes listed at $1,000,000 & up, sealed the deal in just 132 days.

And there are 416 homes still for sale that have been on the market for an average of 175 days and counting. (way more days than the 261 homes that sold)

229 for sale at $0 to $599,000 have been at it for 116 days

108 for sale at $600,000 to $999,999 are tipping the scales at 197 days

and the 79 for sale at $1,000,000+ have been sweating it out for 313 days

Notice that across the board the homes for sale have rung up more days on the market than those that sold. Which suggests that the homes still for sale are somehow less desirable than those that sold; be it price, location, condition or any number of other considerations. Like price.

Homes are selling pretty well this year. If yours is for sale and it’s not selling you may want to take a hard look at the price. The right price can make up for just about any other deficiency.

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to find your Catalina Foothills home