The Catalina Foothills

where are the $million+ homes selling this year, 9/30/15

It’s no secret that sales of Catalina Foothills homes at $1million and up have been lackluster for the past 6 or 7 years.

 

Unlike the market for homes priced under $1million, which has been on the rise since it hit bottom in 2009, sales at $1million and up have pretty much bumped along the bottom since then.

That said, 25 homes have sold at $1million+ so far this year, where are they selling.  
(click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – the listings are continuously updated)

In alphabetical order;

2 in Alta Vista @ $1,005,000 & $1,100,000

1 in Canyon Vista Estates @ $1,250,000

2 in the Canyons @ $1,995,000 & $2,400,000

2 in Catalina Foothills Estates 10 @ $1,050,000 & a spec home @ $1,600,000

1 in Catalina Foothills Estates 9 @ $1,090,000

1 gorgeous Joesler in Catalina Foothills Estates @ $1,950,000

1 in Cobblestone @ $1,200,000

1 incredible steal in Cobo Catalina Hills @ a measly $1,525,000 (sold in 09 @ $3.2)

1 spec home in Coronado Foothills Estates @ $1,020,000

2 in Finisterra @ $1,150,000 & $1,600,000

1 in Foothills ll @ $1,005,000

1 in Pima Canyon @ $1,450,000 (the lowest #’s ever for PC)

1 brand new gorgeous contemporary on Sabino Mt. @ $1,450,000

1 in Sin Vacas @ $1,275,000

3 in Skyline CC @ $1,000,000, $1,270,000 & a knock your socks off remodel @ $1,302,000

1 very attractive contemporary in an unsubdivided area east of Sabino Cyn Rd at $1,300,000

3 in Ventana CC @ $1,035,000, $1,350,000 and $1,700,000

And that’s it, 25 homes sold at $1million+. Last year at this time there were 31 sales.
73 remain for sale, at this pace, enough to last more than 2 years. 

Also notable in today’s numbers is that Pima Cyn sold just 1 home this year – while last year at this time 6 had sold. And Ventana, which is tied at 3 sales each with Skyline CC for top honors, sold 7 homes during the same period last year. 

See where are the $million+ homes selling this year for the September 2014 report.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 9/21 – 9/27

From Monday September 21st through Sunday September 27th  18 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 10/30/15)

13 were priced from $159,900 to $550,000
4 from $764,000 to $935,000
1 at $1,200,000

A healthy take for late September

The numbers for the previous week are HERE 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Stop by and say Hi

We’re holding  5425 N Suncrest Place Tucson, AZ 85718 Open Today.
2790 Sq. Ft, 3 Beds/2.5 Baths, 1 Acre, Thoroughly Redesigned and Remodeled Contemporary Interior with an Open, Flowing Floor Plan + Dramatic Loft Space, District 16 Schools - $525,000

5425 N Suncrest Place  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman – Tierra Antigua Realty)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

recent sales, 9/26/15

4645 N Avenida Del Cazador, Tucson, AZ 85718, in Heatherwood Hills, was listed for $445,000 and went to contract 4 days later and sold for $445,000 ($187/sf). A slam dunk!!  But not for Zillow, they fumbled it at $388,722. Prior sale was $112,000 in 1989.

5842 N Placita Bacanora, Tucson, AZ 85718, in Skyline Bel Air – which is on a fast track of remodeling/updating older homes - was listed for $489,000 and cut to $487,000 then to $485,000 (scout’s honor) and went to contract and sold for $465,000 ($197/sf) in 54 days.
It last sold in 2003 for $310,400, after which some upgrades were performed. 
At $424,646, a swing and a miss for Zillow.

6334 N Via Lomas De Paloma, Tucson, AZ 85718, in Village 1 at La Paloma, listed for $555,000 and soon dropped all the way to $550,000 - but even that didn’t do it – so they got serious and dropped it to $519,500 and BAM!!! along came a buyer offering $519,500 ($258/sf) cash – 34 days to contract and closed soon after.
Zillow struck out  at $472,862.

In Skyline CC,  4905 E Mission Hill Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 – the saga of a fix-up & flip that flopped. Mission Hill last sold for $640,000 in 2005, when fix & flip was all the rage in Skyline. And, perfect timing, it was a tired old 1969 home in dire need of a big refresh.

So the new owners got right to it – time is $$$ – and turned that sow’s ear into the proverbial silk purse. But they never solved the biggest problem – there’s no backyard. None. The driveway winds around the house and occupies the space where the backyard should be. There is a cozy little patio tucked in between the house and the garage and a not so wonderful covered patio on the south side overlooking Mission Hill Drive. But that’s it.

And they priced it as if it were a dripping in diamonds-studded silk purse – nice upgrades and remodeling but, Hello, same sq. footage and still no backyard – so no pool and no place to put a pool. All for just $1,390,000 ($411/sf).

It’s been on and, occasionally, off the market ever since, dropping along the way from $1.390 > $1.275, $1,175, $1.069, $989, etc., etc. Earlier this month it hit the magic number, $599,999, and along came a buyer who didn’t give a hoot about a backyard and pool – and it closed yesterday for $585,000 ($173/sf) cash. Or, if they can figure out how to do it, at $585,000 they can afford to solve the backyard issue and have it all for somewhere around $685,000.  Zillow hit the bulls-eye at $587,107.

 

5040 N Post Trail, Tucson, AZ 85750, a 2 story in Sunrise Territory Village, sold for $525,000 in 2012 – then had a facelift in the kitchen and a nip and tuck in the baths – was listed for $674,000 in January and sold for $607,040 ($148/sf) the other day. Zillow was expecting more, $640,266.

Another notch in the belt for Skyline Bel Air; the hot spot for foothills fixer-uppers.  5212 E Camino Bosque, Tucson, AZ 85718, a 2005 built home - which is extremely rare in there where almost everything is from the 60’s and 70’s, with a handful of “newer homes” from the 80’s and 90’s – listed for $658,500 sold the other day, after just 4 days, for $650,000 ($224/sf). The highest $$/sf sale since 2008.

And it’s only fitting – it is by far the newest home in there - at least that I know of. Skyline Bel Air has been booming for the last few years and, assuming nothing weird happens, I’m confident it will continue. Location, location .. Zillow nailed it again, $657,923.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 9/14 – 9/20

Please note, 
The technical difficulties we were having with search results on my web site, TheFoothillsToday.com,have now been fixed. All listings, including all new listings, from the Tucson MLS are now showing up in all search categories. Thank you for your patience.
                 ……………………………………………………………….

From Monday September 14th through Sunday September 20th  14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (ink expires 10/22/15)

12 were priced from $184,900 to $575,000
2 at $699,900 & $799,000
And that’s it.

A less than auspicious week. And it’s no longer August, so there goes that excuse.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

maybe the real estate boom wasn’t all it’s cracked up to be

The chart below shows single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills from 1997 to the end of this year. For 2015 I predicted sales for the remainder the year, here’s how:
YTD 2015 sales are 13% higher than 2014. So I just added 13% to the total number of homes sold in 2014 to predict sales for the 2015 full year.  Simple, Voila’!, +/-, hopefully I’m in the ballpark.

The pre-boom years, the years 1997 -  2002, 2003, as you can see from the chart, were awfully good years for foothills home sales. So good, in fact, that they steal some of the thunder of the boom years brouhaha. Sales in the peak years of 2004-2005 were just 12.5% higher than sales were in 1998. And 2004/2005 sales are even less impressive (barely 6% higher) when compared to 1999/2000. Would you call that a boom or a very healthy jump in sales.

 
And sales were higher in those pre-boom years than they have been in any of the last 10 years. And that’s surprising because there are many more homes, and it seems like  many more people too, in the foothills today than there were back then. How many more homes – an educated guess,  700 – 800 sfr’s. How many more people, we’ll get to that in a minute.

Of course we went thru a nearly catastrophic economic/real estate crash in 2008 that hit everyone’s pocketbook very hard and scared the dickens out of us. But that was 7 years ago.

And after 7 years, not only are we still well below boom-time sales numbers, we’re well below where sales were in the late 90’s and very early 2000’s. Why.

Maybe it’s just that foothills residents were more carefree and mobile back then – buying, selling, downsizing, upsizing and upgrading with abandon. They just didn’t fret over making a move like we do today. No doubt about that. 

Because it was easier to buy and sell a home back then than in any of the last 7 years,
because;
- prices were more stable and predictable back then (though, admittedly, they have been pretty stable, actually have barely budged, in the last 12 months)
-  sellers weren’t under water on their mortgages like they’ve been, or not able or willing to  sell their homes at the drastically reduced prices we are still experiencing.   
- mortgages were easier to get than in the last 7 years
- even though the economy has improved since those very dark days there’s still a lingering fear that the other shoe could drop at any time.
- ……(fill in the blank)

- …….. “    “     “

And here’s one more reason, a drop in the foothills population. Surprising as heck to me – seems like so many more people now than when I moved here in 2000 – but,

according to US Census Catalina Foothills CDP, Arizona the population of the Catalina Foothills dropped 5.57% from 2000 to 2010.

2000 population 53,794
2010 population 50,796

3000 fewer residents could/should and would cause a drop in home sales. I haven’t been able to find any reliable data on population numbers for more recent years. If you have them please share them, thank you.

So the $64k question is, where are they going and why aren’t they staying here.
In a post in August that touched on this same subject I noted that the median price of foothills homes is $549,000 and in sunny San Diego it’s $547,800. And I wondered, “… are we really on a competitive footing with places like San Diego. Which perhaps answers the question of where all the baby boomers are headed, surf’s up”

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

technical difficulties

UPDATE – 9/22/15
The technical difficulties we were having with search results has now been fixed.
All listing, including all new listings, from the Tucson MLS are now showing up in all search categories.
My thanks to the talented staff at Flex MLS for their professionalism and hard work in getting it resolved ASAP.
And Thank you for your patience,
John Schneider

It appears that new listings, those listed in the last few days, are not showing up on my web site – TheFoothillsToday.com  

This glitch affects the following searches;
Just Listed
Quick Search 
Search by Subdivision

Clicking any of those search tabs will not return new listings that were entered in the MLS in the last few days. All other existing listings do show.

However, using the Custom Search will return everything for sale within the parameters you set, including all the new listings. Odd, but true.

I’ve contacted Flex MLS and I’m sure they are working to resolve this issue.
Sorry for the inconvenience.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home  (as long as it’s not a new listing)

recent sales

7450 E Valley Lights Place, Tucson, AZ 85750, in Bonita Ridge, a compact and cookie
cutter-ish gated subdivision off Snyder Rd between Kolb and Sabino Canyon Rd. The pain of buying then and selling now – Valley Lights sold for $538,000 in 2007 and for $420,000 ($216/sf) recently. But it was priced right ($427k) and went quickly (73 days). Zillow was on target at $407,373.

5500 N Entrada Quince, Tucson, AZ 85718, in Cat 7, a rambling old foothills subdivision that is anything but cookie cutter. Quince sold for $441,000 in 04, was remodeled in the intervening years – new kitchen, baths, etc. – and, also priced right, it sold for $542,000 from a $539,900 list in 7 days. Being unaware of the rehab, I’m guessing, Zillow low-balled it at $484,587.

4291 N Camino De Carrillo, Tucson, AZ 85750, in the sprawling Fairfield community, sold for  big bucks in 2013, too big - @ list price $625,000 in 10 days. And after starting out this February trying for $669,000 it dropped to $575,000 and recently sold for $550,000 ($226/sf). And prices aren’t down since 2013, they’re UP, about 7% – but if you overpay when you buy it’s tough to do well when you sell. Especially after just 2 years. And they didn’t give it away, it sold for the highest $$/sf price in Fairfield this year.  Zillow wasn’t swayed by the 2013 sale either, not one bit, they low-balled it at $492,870.

4400 N Territory Place, Tucson, AZ 85750, in Sunrise Presidio, sold for $510,000 in 2003 and for list price, $585,000 ($173/sf) the other day after 159 days. Zillow had it at $608,245.

3419 E Via Palomita, Tucson, AZ 85718, in La Paloma, sold for $865,000 in 2005 and recently for $771,000 ($217/sf) from an $800k list in just 31 days. Taking an 11% hit from 05 is nothing to sneeze at, but considering where prices were then and are now they did better than one might expect.  And Zillow was onboard at $792,753.

6242 N Desert Moon Loop, Tucson, AZ 85750, in Ventana CC, with no record of a previous sale, it was listed for $995,000 and sold for $949,000 ($263/sf) in 49 days. How sweet it is! At $955,500, a hole-in-one for Zillow. 

One thing’s for sure, at least for this batch of sales, list prices and buyer expectations were very much in sync. And Zillow was on their game.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 9/7 – 9/13

From Monday September 7th through Sunday September 13th  21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 10/15/15)

19 were priced from $212,000 to $599,999
1 at at $749,000
1 at $1,505,000

With August now behind us contracts are increasing, though, for the moment, with most huddled at the bottom end. From here on market activity should remain strong, and hopefully grow, but with the usual ups and downs. 

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s happening in Catalina Foothills subdivisions, part 3

This is a continuation of 2 previous posts; Part 1 is HERE & Part 2 is HERE
**the number of homes sold represents sales for the last 6 months.

Let’s start with a biggie, Flecha Caida

Flecha Caida covers a lot of ground; starting a little ways south of Sunrise Dr and continuing south nearly to River Rd, and stretching from just east of Swan to Craycroft and west of Swan to Alvernon Way. Homes in FC come in all shapes, sizes and were built from the 1950’s to the mid 2000’s.

12 homes for sale ($299,000 to $1,475,000) @ avg/median - $652,542/$517,250
  2 in contract ($241,000 & $367,000) @ avg/median - $304,000/$304,000
10 sold ($360,000 to $525,000) @ avg/median - $416,765/$409,450

FC is doing OK. 7 months inventory, 2 in contract. And homes listed up to about $550 - $600 should continue to sell well. But recent and historical sales in FC don’t bode well for higher priced homes, let’s say, from about $750,000 & up.

Since January 2012  69 homes have sold in FC –
66 of them sold from $200,000 to $550,000, plus 2 at $600,000 and 1 at $690,000. And that’s it, nothing higher. And it’s not for lack of trying. Homes have been listed from the $900’s to more than $2,000,000, but none have sold.

Skyline Country Club, location, location …, guard gated, the first golf course community developed in the Foothills features homes that were built from the 1960’s to the 2000’s - though the majority are 30 – 40 years, or more, old. But with some of the most magnificent view lots in the Catalina Foothills, and with the real estate bust more or less behind us, the pace of remodeling and renovation is on the rise in Skyline. And with the newly refurbished country club facilities and the bulk of the club’s financial woes on the mend Skyline CC is coming back stronger than ever.

17 homes for sale ($490,000 - $1,900,000) @ avg/median - $1,070,318/$945,000
  4 in contract ($599,999 - $1,000,000) @ $766,000/$732,000
11 sold ($500,000 - $1,302,000) @ $768,000/$650,000
But with 9 months inventory and, more importantly, a large gap between list and sold prices, the upper-end market in Skyline still has a ways to go.

Hacienda del Sol, guard gated during daylight hours – mechanical gate from dusk to dawn. Conveniently located off Hacienda del Sol Rd with homes built from the 1990’s well into the 2000’s.

2 homes for sale ($659,000 & $1,095,000) @ $877,000/$877,000
0 in contract
2 sold ($675,000 & $800,000) @ $737,500/$737,500

Foothills ll, gated, high up in the foothills off Alvernon Way north of Skyline Dr, often with good mountain and/or city views. Homes built from late 70’s to the mid 2000’s.

0 for sale 
1 in contract ($1,505,000) 
1 sold ($735,000)

Bellas Catalinas, gated, north of River Rd off Alvernon Way with homes built from the mid 90’s well into the 2000’s.

4 for sale ($541,000 to $1,175,000) @ $771,250/$684,500
1 in contract ($655,000)
5 sold ($625,000 to $720,000) @ $662,200/$661,000
A tidy 5 months inventory and, aside from the one home listed at $1,175,000, a tight grouping of list, in contract and sold prices.

Finisterra, guard gated, high up in the foothills off of Craycroft Rd north of Sunrise. With larger more $$$ homes at the top of Fin with some bordering the Coronado National Forest. Lower priced homes and townhomes located lower in the community.  Homes built from the early 80’s to 2013.

4 for sale ($445,000 to $1,150,000) @ $798,500/$799,500
0 in contract
6 sold ($380,000 to $1,600,000) @  $853,863/$769,500
Fin is doing just fine, 4 months inventory with homes selling at top to bottom prices.

Sabino Mountain, gated and located high on a ridge on the east side of the Catalina Foothills, all newer homes built from the early 2000’s to 2015 – and from 1600 to 7000 sq. ft.

5 for sale ($340,000 to $849,000) @ $480,800/$415,000
0 in contract  
6 sold ($319,000 to $1,450,000) @  $749,667/$722,500
5 months inventory with costlier homes selling very well.

Part 1 is HERE

& Part 2 is HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

AZ Star on the Tucson Luxury Market

Last week I noted that luxury home sales in the Northwest are stronger than they are in the Catalina Foothills.

And, coincidentally, today we have an article in the AZ Daily Star titled,
Luxury home sales in up Tucson — see what $1M will buy
(I assume they meant – Luxury home sales up in Tucson ….)

And without getting into the gory details the Star more or less comes to the same conclusion, stating;
“Traditionally, the luxury market has been concentrated in the Foothills, but now about one-third of those sales are on the northwest side, such as the Residences at The Ritz.”

Also, note that The Star uses $1M as the price point for Luxury in their headline but $800,000 as the price point in the article when touting market growth. And no mention of how the Luxury Market in the Northeast, or anywhere else, is doing. Which btw, at $1M+, YTD last year, 5 homes sold in the NE and YTD this year, 4 sold. So no improvement there.

And we know the Luxury Market is not up in the Catalina Foothills, but no mention of that either.

And yet the Star’s headline reads, “Luxury home sales up in Tucson …”, which of course just might lead you to believe that the entire Tucson Luxury market is up.  
Even though it’s not. And there’s nothing in the article to explain that the Luxury Market is only up in the Northwest. I wonder why?

With those nitpicks aside, read all about it;
Luxury home sales in up Tucson — see what $1M will buy
 Arizona Daily Star
By Gabriela Rico

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Our Attractive Sign Found a Very Good Home

 

Caroline and I just listed 5245 N Suncrest Pl.

Built 1980, 1.22 acres,2790 sf, 3Beds/2.5 Baths, 3 car garage, all on one level + a 2nd level loft space overlooking the living room. The home has been thoroughly renovated and remodeled with walls removed and ceilings raised to make way for an open and flowing floor plan. the improvements include; a completely new kitchen, new ceramic and wood floors throughout, many new windows and sliders, new Lennox HVAC, new water heater, new roof, and all of it freshly painted inside and out, and more. $525,000 ($188/sf)

 

 We’re ready to show it whenever you would like to see it.

5425 N Suncrest Place, Tucson, AZ 85718
Listed by Tierra Antigua Realty

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

the luxury market is younger and stronger in the Northwest than in the Foothills

Northwest
41 single family homes currently listed for sale at $1,000,000 & up
21 have sold since Jan 1, which works out to a current 15.6 month supply of homes
the 21 homes that sold sold at an average of $355/sf.

Catalina Foothills
76 single family homes currently listed for sale at $1,000,000 & up
25 have sold since Jan 1, which works out to a current 24 month supply of homes
the 25  homes that sold sold at an average of $259/sf – 27% less than those in the NW.

Why is that. Just guessing, but I think it may have something (or a lot) to do with age.

Northwest
of the 21 homes sold 2 were built in 1984 and 1998
and 19 were built from 2001 to 2015. Median age was 2008
Median age of the 41 currently for sale is 2006

Catalina Foothills
of the 25 homes sold 15 were built from 1936 to 1998
and 10 were built from 2000 to 2015. Median age was 1995
Median age of the 76 currently for sale is 1997

Age before beauty does not apply in housing

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the last 2 weeks, 8/24 – 9/6

I missed a week, and I blame it on the doldrums of August

From Monday August 24th through Sunday September 6th  27 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 10/10/15)

20 were priced from $100,000 to $585,000
6 from $625,000 to $789,000
1 at $1,249,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

a quick start to the post summer season

we’re just past Labor Day and already the pace of new listings has increased

To see them within moments of their hitting the Tucson MLS click the Just Listed tab on my website.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Attractive Sign Looking for a Good Home

Friendly, candid, professional and house broken - 30 years combined
experience representing homeowners and buyers - and not one accident.
Know the market inside and out.
Seeking homeowners who would like this attractive sign in their front yard.

Please call Caroline at 520 405-1794 or John at 520 271-4164 to see how this sign
can work for you.
                      ……………………………………………………..

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Hot off the press, January – August Home Sales

from 2004 – 2015 (single family homes)
First up, the rise of homes sold up to $999,999

and the ongoing struggle of homes sold from $1,000,000 & UP

 

plus, median sold prices 

Happy Labor Day!

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

recent sales

6256 N Camino Miraval, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Catalina Foothills Est 8 sold for $395,000 in 02, for $742,000 in 05, for $415,000 in 2012 and for $450,000 ($159/sf) the other day – up 8.4% from 2012. Zillow $495,183 .

6226 N Via Paloma Rosa, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Villages Two & Four At Villages Of La Paloma sold for $455,000 in 2010 and for $520,000 ($226/sf) today – up 14% from 2010.
Zillow was in the ballpark at $539,327.

4373 N Via Entrada Hermosa, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Bellas Catalinas sold for $399,900 in 1998, for $485,000 in 2000, for $475,000 in 2003 – huh, for $625,000 this past May and for $625,000 again ($222/sf) today – up nearly 32% since 03. Zillow nailed it at $624,073.

6551 N Longfellow Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Coronado Foothills Estates sold for $540,000 in 2000, for $940,000 in Feb 2008, as the market was cratering, and for $780,000 ($185/sf) today – down 17%. The big Z liked it at $820,872, but no one else did.

3840 E Placita Sumo, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Catalina Foothills Estates 10 sold for $515,000 in 1996 and for $1,050,000 ($201/sf) today – up 104%, buy and hold. Incredibly enough, Zillow had it at $1,055,465 – a masterful call given that the last sale was 19 years ago.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Catalina Foothills August Home Sales

No Surprises, August being August, sales dropped from their lofty heights of the previous 3 months.

But the big picture is much brighter, Thru August, home sales this year are 14% ahead of where they were at this time last year – 595 sold v. 523.

Sale prices in August mimicked those in July, nearly down to the penny.

And the big picture is pretty much the same.
Thru August, sale prices this year are basically flat v. last year.
The average sale price is down –1% and the median is up +1.5%.

With sellers boxed in it’s no wonder that homes are selling.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home