The Catalina Foothills

they don’t come along very often

Looking for something different, something authentic and beyond the hum-drum of yet another southwest contemporary or Sante Fe, or another all too typical territorial.

There are a few out there, here and there, now and then, but often they’re sold before they ever hit the MLS.

6150 N Piedra Seca is a good example. It went to contract twice before it ever hit the MLS - for some reason the first deal fell thru – but before it was back in the MLS it was back in contract with a new buyer and it sold in 0 days for $1,075,000 ($267/sf), cash.

It’s a Jim Gray adobe with 16” thick adobe walls, built in 2003, 4022 sf, 4 Beds/4 Baths. Almost no one is building with adobe these days and the style and features found in these homes are distinct and special, so they’re not for everyone. And apparently not for Zillow – they guesstimated it at $817,392.  6150 N Piedra Seca Tucson, AZ 85718 

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Another special home sold today, a Tuscan, but not the garden variety faux Tuscans that we often see. This is the closest I’ve seen in the foothills to an authentic Tuscan, something that wouldn’t be out of place in Tuscany.

It was built in 2007 and had the unfortunate timing of coming on the market in 2008 listed for $1,150,000 then $995,000. As the market was tanking in 2008, buyers, real estate agents and appraisers were having a hard enough time figuring out market values for average run of the mill homes. For something as different as this Tuscan there just wasn’t anything to compare it to. So, terrible market, unique home, it's not surprising it went nowhere. But today, out of nowhere, it showed up in the MLS as a new listing one minute and as a sold listing the next. And I’m not sure why but it sold for just $650,000 ($182/sf), which seems cheap-cheap to me. But there may be more to it than meets the eye. The big Z guessed it at  $731,411

2761 E Camino Pablo, Tucson, AZ 85718 – 3569 sf, 2 Beds/2.5 Baths, 2 story,

No pictures from the recent listing, these are from the 2008 listing - it's much better looking in person.

 

 

There’s not another one like them on the market today and there hasn’t been in a long, long time.

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why did Quarterly Sold Prices turn so erratic starting in Q2 of 2014

The following chart shows Quarterly Median Sold Prices for Catalina Foothills Homes from Q1 of 2012 thru Q3 of 2015

Beats me, your thoughts and comments are appreciated.

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in contract last week, 10/19 – 10/25

From Monday October 19th through Sunday October 25th 19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 11/27/15)

15 were priced from $185,000 to $599,000
4 from $673,000 to $979,000
And that’s it.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

 

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listed in the $500’s and recently sold

There are 55 homes for sale listed from $500,000 to $599,999. There are also 20 in contract and just 4 sold in the last 30 days. Which tells us the market was slower in August-September but picked up in October. With 55 for sale and just 4 sold the months of inventory stands at a hefty 14 month supply of homes in the $500’s. But if even just 15 of the homes in contract sell in the next 30 days that 14 MOI will be whittled down into the low single digits. The following sales are just a few straightforward sales, interesting mainly, if at all, if you’re buying or selling in the $500’s.

6891 N Casas Adobes Drive, Tucson, AZ 85704 was listed for $525,000 in 2013 and after 6 months and no sale they called it quits. It was listed again this past July for $500,000, went to contract 6 days later and after a long escrow – which is always nerve wracking – it closed on the 6th of October for $500,000. 6 months, 6 days and the 6th of October, what are the chances. Zillow was right-on at $504,456, but shows that it closed on 2nd of October.

5781 N Winding Woods Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 in the ever popular Paloma Ridge – sold for $540,000 in 2011 and for $550,000 earlier this month, but it was over quickly, just one day on the market.  Zillow was in at $567,119.

5661 N Placita De La Noche, Tucson, AZ 85718 in the eternally popular Shadow Hills - sold for $551,000 ($158/sf) from a $560,000 list price after 46 days. The last sale was in 91 when the sellers bought the lot and then built the house, so I expect they walked away with a tidy stash.  Zillow guessed it at $560,276.

And then there’s 4295 N Camino Kino, Tucson, AZ 85718 but I covered that one HERE the other day

And that’s it. Just 4 sales in the $500’s, but that’s about to change dramatically.

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how’s the market doing this year compared to last year

Let’s have a look at the important stuff, and with no charts, just hard numbers.
The following numbers are for single family homes SOLD UP TO $999,999 in the Catalina Foothills from January 1st thru October 15th for last year and this year.

	2014	2015	+/- %
# Homes Sold	593	657	+ 11%
Avg Sold Price	$435,270	$443,636	+  2%
Med Sold Price	$385,000	$405,000	+ 5%
Med $$/sf Sold	$157/sf	$160/sf	+ 2%
CDOM	60	66	+10

(CDOM, is Cumulative Days on Market - Lower is Better)

Those numbers are fairly benign – sales are up nicely and prices have edged up a little bit too. Nothing much to complain about. 

And the same comparison but this time for homes sold at $1,000,000 & UP

	2014	2015	+/-%
# Homes Sold	36	27	- 25%
Avg Sold Price	$1,344,750	$1,356,741	+ 0.89%
Med Sold Price	$1,202,500	$1,275,000	+ 6%
Med $$/sf Sold	$249/sf	$249/sf	0%
CDOM	150	182	+21%

OOPS, sorry, a lot of numbers up there but the most striking one is the number of homes sold, it’s so small. Barely 4% of the 684 homes sold this year. And this year it took 21% longer than last year to sell 25% fewer homes. And last year was nothing special, far from it. As a matter of fact we haven’t had a good year at $1million+ since 2007, when YTD 81 sold.

Anyway, one thing’s for sure, you have to be pretty special to sell in this market.
Have a look at the 27 homes that did make the grade - SOLD AT $1MILLION+ IN 2015

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you can’t have it all

Listed for $587,827 a new home by Miramonte Homes sold today for $550,000 ($189/sf) – for that you get a brand new 2906 sf house with tall ceilings, new everything, energy efficient HVAC, windows and appliances, a spiffy modern kitchen open to dining and living areas, a 3 car garage and a builder warranty – and all very nicely done. Miramonte builds a good house. And that beats the pants off just about any resale home you could buy for $550ish in the foothills.

But at that price you’ve got to give up something. And here they gave up the location, location thing. The general location is good but the house, at 4295 N Camino Kino, Tucson, AZ 85718, sits awfully close to River Rd., on the 2nd lot north of River about a mile east of Campbell. Not awful, and it is a convenient location, but pretty busy and noisy given its proximity to the traffic of River Rd. And bald as a cue ball too.

Starting in 2013 we began to see more new builder homes in the foothills. And not the multi-$$million McMansions that sprouted during the boom years, but more modest homes at more modest prices. Homes from Miramonte, Maracay and AF Sterling. And from what I’ve seen they’re very nice homes but they’re on what I consider to be 2nd rate lots. Or, take your pick, on tiny little ‘reach out and touch your neighbor’ lots.

And that’s because good lots are few and far between in the foothills and those that are available are very costly. They’re not making anymore good lots. The lot at 4295 Camino Kino has been there since the beginning of time and until now has never built on – and, I’m guessing, not because of anything other than it’s proximity to River Rd. It was asking $144,000 when it was first listed in 2012 and sold to Miramonte for $65,000 in 2013. And this is not a criticism of these builders, not at all, they’re hitting the sweet spot of buyer demand. It’s an observation of what I see happening in the foothills today and perhaps a hint of what may come in the years ahead.

I think it’s likely that as more homes are built and sold on compromised or tiny little lots that in time they will be more acceptable and more accepted. When Joesler and Murphey built homes in the 1930’s – 1950’s they were carefully sited and tucked away on splendid lots of 5 to 15 acres. That was the norm then. Now, most of those estates have been split into a multitude of one acre lots that are chock-a-block with new homes. What’s up next in the name of progress.

PS- I can’t find hide nor hair of the listing or sale of Camino Kino on Zillow. So here it is on Realtor.com

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rolling the dice on prices, then and now

Perfectly situated to count the passing cars on Hacienda del Sol Rd on one side, and to oversee the comings and goings at the Eleven Arches entry/exit gate on the other, 3550 E Camino A Los Vientos  was listed for $2,450,000 in 2006. And after some time and no takers it dropped to $2,000,000 in early 2007, but that didn’t do it. So in a daring and counterintuitive move it was raised back up to $2,400,000. But incredibly enough, still no-go. So in 2008 it dropped back down to $1,999,000 and that eventually did the trick - it sold for $900,000 (yep $900k) in early 2009 as a short sale.  Boo-hoo.

Fast forward to now – it was listed for $1,325,000 this past May, had two price cuts to $1,275,000 and to $1,200,000 and sold today for $1,100,000 ($227/sf).
A fairly normal, uneventful and boring sale. 

Zillow was pretty close at $1,183,013. But once again Zillow doesn’t show the sale and shows that the listing was withdrawn today, 10/21. And of course it wasn’t. What did happen today is the listing changed status from Active Contingent to Pending and then to Sold. And the minute a listing changes from Active Contingent to Pending it disappears from public websites, including my own. I noticed this same pattern the other day when reporting recent sales. Which leads me to wonder if Zillow isn’t getting their listing info, or at least some of it, from public websites. Maybe even from mine, and not from a direct and paid for feed from the Tucson MLS. Wouldn’t that be a twist.

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in contract last week, 9/12 – 9/18

From Monday October 12th through Sunday October 18th 16 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 11/19/15)

14 were priced from $178,000 to $584,900    
1 at $910,000      
1 at $1,200,000   
  Kinda lopsided, eh!

The numbers for the previous week are HERE 
 
Here’s another fun way to look at our lopsided market.
The median list price of the 441 homes for sale is $549,000 – half the homes are priced below and half above $549,000.

In the last 90 days 206 homes sold;
157 sold under the $549,000 median & just 49 sold above it.
Or, 76% of all sales were under the $549,000 median & just 24% above it.
LOP-SIDED, no matter how you look at it.

But the weather is gorgeous, so who cares.

Happy Fall!

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recent sales, 10/18/15

In Bellas Catalinas,  4380 N Via Entrada Hermosa, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $490,000 in 2004 and after a little freshening up and new appliances in the kitchen listed it for $899,000 in 2006. It eventually sold for $717,500 in pre-Lehman 2008. Those owners put it on the market this past August – and priced it to sell at $665,000 – and sold it in 16 days for $650,000 ($239/sf). Zillow has it at $616,096, but even though it closed 2 weeks ago they still do not show the sale.

In Pontatoc Canyon Est, 5451 N Paseo Pescado, Tucson, AZ 85718 took the scenic route to a sale. It also sold in pre-Lehman 2008, for $490,000, and was listed for $535,000 in 2013 – by no means an off the charts high price but one that nevertheless did not attract buyers. When it finally got down to $489,500 this past August it quickly went to contract and sold for $479,000 ($188/sf) two weeks ago. Zillow was all over it at $479,275.

In Shadow Hills, 991 E Calle De La Cabra, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold $419,000 in 2004, for $440,000 in 2014 and for $460,000 ($163/sf) last month. Steady as she goes.
Zillow values it at $476,334 but shows the listing was removed on 9/24 and does not show the sale - even though it sold more than 2 weeks ago. Earth to Zillow …

They say you don’t get back what you put into a remodel. Looking at the recent sale of 6011 N Desert Sun Court, in Ventana CC, the sellers found out the hard way. They paid $717k for it in 2012 and did an extensive remodel – big new kitchen, nice new baths and this n’ that - and listed it for $995k in February and sold it for $835,000 ($276/sf) the other day. No payday there. And what gives with Zillow. They value it at $882,975, OK not too far off, but they show that it’s for sale by owner for  $442,000 – presumably the owner who just paid $835k cash for it. Yeah sure. And they do not show the $835 sale either. Zillow, can you hear me now

If you want to sell really fast, do what they did at 5873 E Placita Alta Reposa, Tucson, AZ 85750 in Alta Vista. The sellers paid $868,500 in January 2013 and listed it for $795,000 this past August - even though prices are clearly higher today than they were in 2013. Being the no-brainer that it was, it went to contract in 1 day and sold for full list, $795,000 ($221/sf). The buyers did well and the sellers got what they asked for.  Zillow did connect on this one - they have the listing and the sale, way to go.
And they too algorized it for more $$$ -  $915,185.

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in contract last week, 10/5 – 10/11

From Monday October 5th through Sunday October 11th 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ.  (link expires 11/14/15)

10 were priced from $229,900 to $599,500
2 from $769,000 to $775,900
1 at $2,195,000

a meager take for an otherwise fine week in October

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

During that same week 43 ‘New Listings’ came to market (including 34 actual new listings and 9 homes that were re-listed) – bringing the number of homes for sale to 433 – up 20 from last week’s 413.

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another contemporary sells

Last sold in 2007 for $1,900,000 after 49 days, 7164 N Mercer Spring, Tucson, AZ 85718, sold yesterday for $1,460,000 ($248/sf) after 484 days. No surprise there, it sold for 23% less than 2007 which, oddly enough, is exactly where median sold prices are today vs 2007 – down 23%.

Nevertheless, it was listed in May 2014 for $1,895,000 and eventually dropped to $1,505,000, and that did the trick. It’s a dramatic, newer contemporary with astonishing views – because it is a true contemporary and they are rare in the foothills, I was more optimistic figuring it would sell sooner and for more $$$ - previously mentioned HERE soon after it was listed.  Zillow, on the other hand, was less optimistic, calling it at $1,293,377.

Despite the overall poor performance of the upper-end market newer contemporaries seem to be gaining in popularity and have done relatively well this year. There’s an exceptional Rick Joy contemporary in Pima Canyon that I’m betting will be the next to go.

 

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a very good year for the Canyons

So far this year two homes have sold; one at $1,995,000 ($320/sf) and another at $2,400,000 ($377/sf). And the other day a home listed at $2,195,000 went to contract. And if it weren’t for a new listing that popped up yesterday, at $3,900,000, there would be nothing for sale.

Granted, the sales, contracts and new listings have been at greatly reduced prices from what they were originally listed at 3, 4 and 5 years ago. But now they’re selling.

And while the overall foothills upper-end market is having one of its worst years - isn't it ironic that the Canyons, the uber-luxe of the foothills upper-end, is having its best year in years.

 

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median prices are UP 12%, oh yeah, where

As I’ve mentioned recently – HERE  &  HERE  - median sold prices of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills are now up 12% over their 2012 market bottom.

 

But that doesn’t mean that median sold prices have gone up in lockstep 12% across the many different subdivisions in the foothills. Not hardly. As you might expect they vary from one to another.  And some vary enormously from 12%.

Here’s a look at how median sold prices have performed since 2012 in a variety of foothills subdivisions. The data represents sales from January 1st thru October 9th for 2012 & 2015.
(click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – continuously updated)

In Shadow Hills, Median sold prices are now UP almost 15% over 2012

Sin Vacas – is UP just over 8%.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10 – is DOWN 14%

Skyline Bel Air – UP a whopping 32%

Alta Vista – UP a tad over 3%

Pima Canyon – UP (technically) almost 4% (13 sales YTD in 2012 vs. 2 in 2015)

Foothills Clusters – surprisingly, DOWN 6%

Cimarron – UP just over 4%

Fairfield/Sunrise – UP 32%

Cobblestone – DOWN 3% (though, with razor thin data)

Flecha Caida – UP nearly 22%

Villages of Ventana – UP 10%

Coronado Foothills Estates – UP 34%

Pinnacle Ridge – UP 16%

The following subdivisions have many homes that cover an exceptionally wide range of prices, from the low $200’s to $300’s to well over $1,500,000. In an attempt to present a more accurate picture of how median prices have performed - because the market at $300K and at $1.5mil+ are vastly different - I’ve broken the data into two parts; homes listed up to $999k and homes listed at $1,000,000+. 

Sabino Mountain (up to $999k) – UP an astonishing 105%
Sabino Mountain ($1,000,000+) – ? - no sales in 2012/ 1 sale at $1,450,000 in 2015

Skyline CC (up to $999k) – UP 14%
Skyline CC ($1,000,000+) – DOWN 8%

La Paloma (up to $999k) – UP 21%
La Paloma ($1,000,000+) – ? - 2012 median was $1,407,500/no sales in 2015

Ventana CC (up to $999k) – UP 34%
Ventana CC ($1,000,000+) – DOWN 23%

And there you have it, median sold prices are UP and DOWN all over the place. And not even one is up 12%, the benchmark for the entire foothills market. 

These numbers support my belief – mentioned HERE - that by and large the upper-end market is not contributing to the rise in prices. And that the rise is being carried, almost exclusively, on the shoulders of lower priced homes.

 

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I’m looking for a Jim Gray Adobe Home

in the Catalina Foothills.
Ideally, it would be approximately 3500 – 4000 sf, including a guest house, 3+ bedrooms/3+ baths, pool, on a mountain and/or city view lot.

If you have one and you’re thinking of selling, I have a buyer who would like to see it.

Please call me at 520 271-4164 or email at johnschneiders@gmail.com

Thank you!

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duh, the economic gurus have finally realized

that the road to economic recovery in Arizona apparently does not go through Tucson.

From the AZ Daily Star

Economists: Pima County lagging badly in job growth

Data presented Thursday by a panel of state economists finds Pima County lagging the rest of the state in job growth.

How bad is Pima doing?

Overall, Arizona has recovered more than 250,000 jobs since the economy hit bottom five years ago. Put another way, four out of every five jobs are back.

But Pima County, which bottomed out employment-wise in July of 2011, has added only 15,500 jobs since then. That brings the county less than half way back to its employment peak of 387,000 in March 2007……

Read all about it - Economists: Pima County lagging badly in job growth

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I touched on this subject a few times earlier this year though, selfishly, the thrust of my interest was in the lack of high paying jobs as they relate to the puny performance of the upper-end home market in the Catalina Foothills.

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stuck between seasons

I just updated the Market Snapshot numbers and as you’ll see the MOI numbers are higher than they’ve been – even at under $1million - at over $1million they’re incalculable.

That’s because on the one hand contract and sales activity has slowed during this transitional time between summer and fall, and on the other new listings activity has picked up in anticipation of the snow birds arrival. 

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Basking in the Glow of Notoriety

soon to be followed by Fame and Fortune!  
 
I was recently featured in an article in Foothills News The Voice of the Catalina Foothills > Foothills housing: The tale of two markets

And thank you to Chris Flora, the reporter, for accurately reporting what I said, and for not fluffing it up.

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in contract last week, 9/28 – 10/4

From Monday September 28th through Sunday October 4th 15 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 11/6/15)

13 were priced from $237,400 to $579,000
1 at $899,000
1 at $1,445,000 (3rd times the charm)

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

During that same week 34 homes were listed or relisted for sale. After dipping to its lowest point last month, the inventory of homes for sale is on the rise, (now at 413 single family homes) and will likely continue to rise as we transition from summer to fall. I also think there’s a good chance that a number of sellers who have held off listing their homes, because of low sale prices, may get into the fray this coming season. If you’re looking for a new home keep you eyes on the New Listings.

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Catalina Foothills September Home Sales

Following a hefty drop in August, sales fell again in September. With those drops sales for August-September 2015 are down 6.6% from August-September 2014.

But YTD sales this year are still UP 10% over 2014 – but we’ve lost some ground – at various times earlier in the year sales were UP as much as 14% over 2014.

 

And September sold prices didn’t help the bottom line either. Average/median sold prices dropped –9% & -1% from August.

YTD, average/median sold prices are –1% & +4% vs. 2014.

It’s a long, slow slog, but prices are rising - they hit bottom in 2012 and have risen each year to where the average/median is now up 4% & 12% over 2012.

The puny performance of average prices is likely due, at least partly, to the fact that average sold prices are being dragged down by the many fewer upper-end sales this year. Sales at $1million+ this year are down 34% from where they were in 2012. And 2012 was by no means a banner year.

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prices have risen enough that if you bought in the last few years it may be safe to sell again – without losing your shirt

5130 E Mission Hill Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Skyline CC sold in September 2013 for $575,000 and sold again today for $625,000 – up almost 9% in 2 years with no improvements.
Zillow was even more optimistic, calling it at $671,307

6886 N Casas Adobes Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Casas Adobes sold in August 2013 for $550,000 and sold again today for $629,000 – a 14% increase in 2 years. Again, with no meaningful improvements. At  $503,926 Zillow didn’t see the value here.

It wasn’t too long ago that you just couldn’t sell if you’d bought anytime in the previous 1 to 8 years, not without taking a bath anyway.

YTD median prices are up 4% over 2014 and 12% since prices hit bottom in 2012.  But of course those are median numbers for all the homes sold during those periods – while in real life individual homes appreciate or depreciate at different rates. And some buyers and sellers made good deals when they bought or sold and others didn’t do so well. All of which gets tossed into the pot, stirred around, and out comes 12% - which is not a hard and fast number. Just  look at the difference in appreciation between Mission Hill and Casas Adobes over the same two year period. 

And though I can’t prove it - because sales at $1million+ have been so low for so long and with a chronically lopsided supply/demand picture - in my opinion the 12%, or thereabouts, rise in prices is happening for homes priced well under $1million, and not for the high flyers.

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