The Catalina Foothills

are we on the cusp of a stronger, more competitive market?

As we get ready to close out 2015 there are fewer homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills than there have been all year long; 401 single family homes for sale – down about 20% from the peak in March/April.

Traditionally, after dipping from summer into the fall, this is a time when the inventory begins to climb. Yet it’s down about 8% from late summer/fall and down 8% from where it was on this day in 2014.

On the other hand November/December sales are up 11% this year over where they were in 2014. All of which is good news for sellers and, if it continues, who knows, may lead to prices rising more quickly. (median prices are up 3.75% over 2014)

For a few months now I’ve had an inkling that the pace of our heretofore ‘oh so slowly improving market’ is on the cusp of picking up. Because so much of our market is dependent on discretionary purchases by second home and retirement home buyers the foothills market takes a backseat to those primary markets getting back on solid ground before seeing significant improvement here. And by now, and for some time now, much of the country has recovered from the real estate bust and in many cases has met or even exceeded where they were in the boom years.

Here in the foothills I’m seeing buyers who have finally put their wariness and fear of buying behind them and are now feeling positive, even enthusiastic, about buying a home. And gone are the days when every buyer expected to make a killing, and would only buy if they could. (besides there are very few killings out there to be made) Realistic list prices have helped, they’re now much more in tune with reality than a few years ago and have lead, if not to rampant bidding wars, to a realization that once buyers do find their dream home they may need to move on it sooner than later. Foreclosures are few and far between (3% of total sales this year vs.....11% -15% in 2010 –2012).  Home appraisals and mortgages are clearing the hurdles more easily than in the past. There’s more new home and commercial construction in the foothills than in any of the last 6 –7 years and, I’m told, home remodelers are busier than ever.

And in general, and most important, there’s a more upbeat attitude and more confidence from everyone involved in buying and selling real estate in the Catalina Foothills.

No crystal ball here, just my observations. I welcome your opinion – just click the Comments tab below this post and fire away.

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in contract the last 2 weeks

From Monday December 7th thru Sunday December 20th,  32 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 1/21/16)

23 were priced from $149,900 to $590,000
5 from $639,000 to $799,000
and here’s the big news,
4 from $1,025,000 to $1,475,000 (an out of the blue performance at one of the most unlikely times of the year)

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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buyers still holding the line on prices

4450 E Coronado Drive sold for $1,150,000 in 2005 and for $960,000 ($194/sf) the other day. And it wasn’t for lack of trying; it was listed more than 1 year ago (October 2014) for $1,195,000 and over time, and with no takers, it was reduced until it reached $1.0mil. And only then did it go to contract.

It’s a southwest contemporary, a desirable and popular style in the foothills; built in 2004, 4943 sf, 4 Beds/5 Baths, location, pool, views and all the fixings and still it took more than a year to find a buyer – because, obviously, no one liked it at more than $1,000,000.

It beats me, but there is a down side to being a southwest contemporary. There’s a lot of competition - in  the foothills, you can look at southwest contemporaries all day long. And there’s a lot similarity to them, even sameness, and after a day of looking they all start to blend together and you may have a hard time picking one from the other.

4450 E Coronado Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718

Zillow had it at just over a $mil - $1,006,164

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January – November Home Sales & Sold Prices

Here are the latest numbers for single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills for the period of January thru November from 2004 to 2015 – offering a glimpse of the market during the boom, the bust and now, during our prolonged recovery. 

Single family homes sales up to $999k are UP 46% from their bottom in 2009 – but still off 26% from their 2004 peak.

 

To our continued dismay sales at $1,000,000+ are down 18% from what we thought was the bottom in 2009 - and down 74% from their 2006 peak.

 

Median sold prices are up 12% from their 2012 bottom – but still 25% below their 2006 peak. And that makes it tough going for the many people who bought between 2005 - 2008 and would now like to sell.

They say Good things take time, if so, one of these days we should be in for a lollapalooza of a comeback.

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Very Good Sale for Cat 10

And even though they lucked out, the sellers may not agree.

3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido JUST SOLD for $1,450,000 ($254/sf) from a $1,499,999 list price. What’s not to like. (link expires 1/14/16)

For the sellers, who started out asking $2,195,000 in 2014 (and paid $1,750,000 in 2011), let me count the ways. But that’s the market for luxury/discretionary purchase homes. Which is much, if not all, of the market at the upper end - very few who are paying $1.450 in the Catalina Foothills are buying a roof over their head.

And the sellers knew the drill. When they bought it in 2011 for $1.750 - which, at the time, may have seemed like the deal of a lifetime - Boscaje Escondido was asking $1,899,000, reduced from $2,690,000. And here we are 4 years later and still this market continues to disappoint.

That’s the 3rd $1million+ sale this year in Cat 10, (and, barring a miracle, the last).
Though it could happen, a very attractive home on Sumo Noveno went to contract today listed at $1,475,000.

All Sales This Year in Cat 10  (link expires 1/14/16)

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what’s happening in Catalina Foothills Subdivisions, part 2

Because market conditions vary widely from one area of the foothills to another, though much of the variance is due to price alone, it’s important to be aware of how the market is doing in the areas and subdivisions that interest you.  This a continuation of where I left off last week

Click any subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – single family & townhomes.

Ventana Country Club
26 for sale at $1,224,187/$924,000  (avg/median list price)
5 in contract at $894,779/$979,000  (avg/median list price)
11 sold in the last 6 months at  $756,000/$725,000  (avg/median sold price)
=  a hefty 14 month supply of homes in Ventana and avg/med list prices that tower over sold prices. Why, supply & demand, a big supply and a small demand for higher priced homes while those at lower prices are selling well.

Cimarron
9 for sale at $633,644/$599,900
2 in contract at $641,950/$641,950
5 sold in the last 6 months at $586,500/$489,000
= an 11 month supply of homes, but, at least, with list & sold prices fairly in sync.

Fairfield/Sunrise
11 for sale at $362,900/$339,900
5 in contract at $476,000/$510,000
12 sold in the last 6 months at $485,253/$476,000
= a perfectly balanced market with a 5+ month supply of homes and with more higher priced, than lower priced, homes selling - the opposite of most other foothills communities. (higher priced for Fairfield, that is)

 Coronado Foothills Estates
11 for sale at $734,391/$650,000
2 in contract at $637,450/$637,450
16 sold in the last 6 months at $635,906/$562,500
= a skimpy 4 month supply of homes. Buyers like views and Coronado has them up the wazoo

Finisterra
4 for sale at $910,750/$924,500
1 in contract at $1,649,000
5 sold in the last 6 months at  $555,409/$454,175
= a very comfy 5 month supply of homes but with a not so comfy gap between the price of those for sale and sold.

Sabino Mountain
10 for sale at $458,330/$386,750
1 in contract at $370,000
3 sold in the last 6 months at $745,667/$430,000
= a burdensome 20 month supply of homes

Hacienda del Sol Estates
2 for sale at $1,067,000/$1,067,000
0 in contract
1 sold in the last 6 months at $675,000
Kinda quiet in HDSE

At the risk of repeating myself - Starting next month the market will should may begin to pick up, even for the upper-end, as our high season kicks off here in the Catalina Foothills.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 11/30 – 12/6

From Monday November 30th thru Sunday December 6th,  20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ - an unusually large number of contracts for this time of year. Motivated, perhaps, by the looming rise in interest rates which, this time, seems likely to actually happen. (link expires 1/8/16)

16 were priced from $225,000 to $599,000
3 from $749,000 to $899,000
1 lucky high-end homeowner priced at $1,499,999 (was $2,195,000 exactly one year ago)

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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Cobblestone holding its own during the $million+ slump

3200 E Crest Shadows Drive sold the other day for $1,090,000 ($241/sf) from a $1,250,000 list  in 141 days. And a few weeks ago 7460 N Catalina Ridge Drive sold for $1,350,000 ($280/sf).

3200 E Crest Shadows Dr Tucson, AZ 85718

All told this year, that’s 5 sales for Cobb with 3 of them at $1million+ and another, nipping at its heels, at $975,000. Last year Cobb had no sales at $1million+.

Throughout the Catalina Foothills there’ve been 32 sales at $1million+ this year,

Ventana CC, usually one of the top 2 players in that market, has had 3 at $1million+
Pima Canyon,  ditto, has had 1
Skyline CC, 3
La Paloma, none
Finisterra, 2
Canyons, having its best year ever, 3 mega $$$$ sales
Cat 10, 2
Alta Vista, 2
Sin Vacas, 1
Sabino Mountain, 1 
Cat 9, 1 
etc.,

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Catalina Foothills November Home Sales

It’s like clockwork, during the November – December holiday season home sales drop off. And this November is no different. Don’t fight it, Enjoy it.

In last month’s report I noted - ‘The big news for much of this year was that sales were UP as much as 14% over 2014. But by September sales had lost ground and were UP just 10%. And now, with the October numbers in the can, we’re UP just 7.4% over 2014’

And now, with the November numbers in the can (and at the risk of splitting hairs) sales are up 6.9% over 2014.

                                   …………………………………………

And depending on how you read the tea leaves - are you an average or a median price disciple - prices for November were either up or down somewhat from October. But no matter how you read them prices this November are eating the dust of last November’s eye popping price performance.

And YTD; ho-hum price performance.
The average is DOWN 2.6% & the median is UP 2.5% over 2014.

And, last and least, sales at $1million+ are now down 29% v. last year. A drop of 7% since October.

The October sales and price report

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in contract last week, Thanksgiving week

From Monday November 23rd through Sunday November 29th - 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 12/31//15 at midnight)

9 were priced from $209,900 to $519,000
1 at $699,000
and 1 at $1,195,000 (after 1048 DOM, and nary a price cut) stick-to-itiveness, Bravo!

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s happening in Catalina Foothills subdivisions

As we enter the final countdown to years end here’s a summary of activity in some of our favorite subdivisions.

Shadow Hills 
6 homes for sale at $494,500/$489,000 avg/median list price
3 in contract at $669,667/$599,000  avg/median list price
18 sold in the last 6 months at $483,333/$491,000 avg./median sold price
= a lean 2 month supply of homes for sale and for sale and sold prices in sync = a sellers market

Sin Vacas
7 for sale at $800,214/$680,000
1 in contract at $449,000/$449,000 (at Villa Milano)
3 sold in last 6 months at  $713,333/$715,000
= a heavy 14 month supply of homes = a buyers market

Alta Vista
8 for sale at $769,250/$769,500
0 in contract
4 sold in last 6 months at $834,250/$891,000
= a heavy 12 month supply of homes = a buyers market

Catalina Foothills Estates (1-9)
35 for sale at $856,569/$729,000
9 in contract at $812,758/$619,025
26 sold in last 6 months at $606,177/$541,000 
= an 8 month supply of homes = drifting into a buyers market, and with a large spread between the price of homes for sale and homes sold in CFE because the cheaper homes are outselling the costlier homes. What else is new.

Skyline Bel Air
3 for sale at $544,633/$469,900
3 in contract at $428,000/$425,000
8 sold in last 6 months at $499,550/$460,000
= a squeaky tight 2 month supply of homes = a strong sellers market in SBA

Pima Canyon
7 for sale at $1,531,286/$1,395,000
0 in contract
1 measly sale in the last 6 months at $1,450,000
= a whopping 42 month supply of homes for sale = PC’s slowest ever 6 months

Skyline CC
20 for sale at $1,096,025/$1,012,500
2 in contract at $894,500/$894,500
8 sold in the last 6 months at $740,125/$605,000
= a 15 month supply of homes for sale and a gaping gap between the price of those for sale and sold = a buyers market, particularly at the upper end. Why, because lower to mid priced homes are selling pretty OK, but higher priced homes are not - there are 10 for sale from $1,095,000 to $1,900,000.

La Paloma
27 for sale at $695,496/$649,000
  3 in contract at $376,300/$400,000
22 sold in last 6 months at $503,073/$489,550
= just over a 7 month supply, not bad at all. Except, of the 22 sold 18 went for $550k or less and just 4 more from $663,500 to $741,000. Leaving the 8 homes listed from $779,000 to $1,425,000 out in the cold. 

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
7 for sale at $1,296,286/$1,325,000
0 in contract
4 sold in last 6 months at $772,250/$720,000
= a 10+ month supply of homes and, once again, a chasm between the price of homes for sale and those that sold. 

Starting next month the market will should may begin to pick up, even for the upper-end, as our high season kicks off here in the Catalina Foothills. And we will likely see an increase in the number of homes for sale. Even, maybe, at the upper-end.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home