The Catalina Foothills

$$/sf Sold Prices are taking their sweet time

After peaking in 2006 and hitting bottom in 2012 median $$/sf sold prices for single family homes in the Catalina Foothills are still far below their boom time highs.

 

Homes in Gated communities dropped 29% from 06 to 2012 and since then have risen just 3%.

Non-gated home prices dropped 34% from 06 to 2012 and since then have risen 11+%.  Nice, but not nearly nice enough.

And lest you think, ‘oh well, gated, who cares about them, they’re all mega-buck luxury homes’ – they’re not. Of the 213 homes sold last year in Catalina Foothills gated communities 115 sold from $225 to $599k. And just 25 sold for $1million or more.

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things must be getting better

Camino Blanco sold for almost $300k more than it did in 2010

3900 N Camino Blanco, a 10,529sf home that was built as a spec in 2007 and listed for $3,400,000 ($323/sf) and sold 3 years later as a foreclosure for $710,000 ($73/sf), Yep $710K, sold again the other day for $995,000 ($95/sf, including its 2.6 acre lot) from a $999,000 list price (reduced from $1,299,950).

Cmo Blanco was the poster child for the outlandish spec building, and list prices, of the boom years and the crash that followed. I wrote about it often, HERE  HERE HERE and elsewhere, following its many price cuts from $3.4mil to its eventual sale at $710k.

Say what you will, but one thing’s for sure, if you’re looking for a 10,000sf home that’s less than 10 years old, for the $$$, nothing comes even close to  3900 N Camino Blanco, Tucson, AZ 85718.

PS – meanwhile, Zillow zestimates its value at $1,707,770, and that’s down almost $200k from where they had it just last month. Huh! And once again they don’t show the sale, but show it as off the market.

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in contract last week, 1/18 – 1/24

From Monday January 18th thru Sunday January 24th,  30 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 2/27/16)

25 were priced from $169,000 to $599,000
4 from $675,000 to $949,000
1 at $1,495,000

During the same week last year there were 20 contracts - 19 priced up to $599,000 + 1 at $659,950. And that’s it.

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Buyers, Sellers and Zillow

Here’s a look at some of the homes that have sold since January 1st; at what they were listed for, what they sold for and what Zillow thought they should have sold for.

5570 E Paseo Bueno, Tucson, AZ 85750 was listed for $575,000 and sold in 25 days for $533,000. The big Z hit the nail on the head calling it at $533,867. But for some reason, even though it closed a week ago, Zillow still does not show it as sold, but merely as Pending. ??

6960 N Montecatina Drive, Tucson, AZ 85704 was listed for $585,000 and sold in 7 days for $573,300. Z zestimnates its value at $524,658 and shows it as off the market and does not show the sale. 3 strikes 

4375 E Pinnacle Ridge Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed for $679,000 and sold in WOW!  3 days for $679,000. Calling it at $673,205 Zillow nailed it again – but once again they do not show it as sold but merely as off the market, despite its having sold almost 3 weeks ago. What gives Zillow.

5710 E Paseo Cimarron, Tucson, AZ 85750 was originally listed at $765k, reduced to $735 reduced to $699 and sold in 195 days for $690,000.  Zillow low-balled it at $621,280 and, despite closing on 1/14, still shows it as Pending.

5050 N Camino Arenosa, Tucson, AZ 85718 listed for $749,000 it sold for $717,000 after 129 days, with no price cuts. At $660,642 Z missed the boat. Though they correctly show that it sold on 1/11 for $717. Why do they get the sold date & price correct on this one and not the others. Earth to Zillow, can you hear me now ..

The travails of 7171 E Desert Star Court, Tucson, AZ 85750 – First listed in August 2012 for $879,000 then > $849, $799, $749, $725, then in the gold rush month of August 2014 for $995, then $949, $925, $899, $874, $862, $837, $799 and finally for $774, causing it to sell on Jan 9th for $720. Hip-hip .. But don’t blame the sellers, they were probably just going by Zillow’s $1,125,312  zestimate and figured they were pricing it cheaply.

3031 E Placita Los Siete Adobes, Tucson, AZ 85718 – was available for $895,000 (but was not yet in the MLS) and sold in 0 days (off the market) for $840,000 on 1/12. Zillow had it at $533,309 and does not show the sale. 

6223 N Desert Moon Loop, Tucson, AZ 85750 – was listed for $979,000 and sold for $950,000 in 55 days. It appears that Zillow is bullish on Ventana because along with Desert Star Court up above (which they totally blew) they had Desert Moon at $1,078,467.

4991 N Avenida De Castilla, Tucson, AZ 85718 – was listed in Nov 2014 for $1,275,000 dropped to $1,175,000 , $1,139,000 and sold for $1,095,000 two weeks ago. Zillow nailed it at $1,118,545. Yet they don’t show the sale, they just show it as off the market.

And finally, 5980 E Terra Grande, Tucson, AZ 85750 – listed for $1,649,000 sold in 44 days for $1,550,000. Given the price that’s an exceptionally quick sale these days. But since Zillow liked it at $1,780,353 it may have looked like a bargain. And Zillow also shows the sale date and sale price correctly.

More evidence that, unlike the bad old days, a majority of the homes that are selling these days are selling reasonably close to list price , because list prices are now more reasonable,  and they’re selling fairly quickly, too.

On the other hand Zillow appears to be losing their famous edge. Because without the latest sold data they can’t feed the algorithm and if they don’t feed the algorithm their zestimates won’t reflect current market prices and will become less accurate. Not to mention that without sold data they are bound to lose some viewers.

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Just Listed in Sin Vacas

Our New Listing at 2462 E Calle Sin Controversia Tucson, AZ 85718

An impeccable burnt adobe territorial on a premium view lot high-up in gated Sin Vacas. Spacious living areas are complemented by sweeping city and Catalina Mountain views.

Classic details throughout - with portico entry, wood beamed ceilings, Talavera tile, Saltillo floors

The superb updated kitchen-newer Mesquite cabinets, granite counters, premium stainless appliances, 2 breakfast bars - is open to a generously sized family room and casual dining area - all with mesmerizing city views.

Party sized covered patio overlooks the pool and city lights beyond.

Master Suite with fireplace, private patio and spa tub, walk-in closet

Two additional bedrooms & bath at opposite side of home

with adjacent game room.

 

2462 E Calle Sin Controversia Tucson, AZ 85718

Burnt Adobe, Built 1981, .83 acre lot, 3912 sf, 4 Beds/3 Baths + Game Room + Bonus/Exercise/Craft Room, Single Story, Pool, 2 car garage, Gorgeous Mountain and City Views - $795,000 ($203/sf)

Listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman

John Schneider – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 271 – 4164
johnschneiders@gmail.com

Caroline Freedman – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 405 – 1794
Caroline@ok4u.com

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

it’s a January thing

Starting in January and continuing into March more homes are listed for sale in the Catalina Foothills than at any other time of year. Meanwhile, in January, buyers are still warming up and kicking tires. So initially, until buyers really get going, the supply of homes for sale far outstrips the demand. And consequently the MOI (months of inventory) numbers are very high.

I was reminded of this when I updated the Market Snapshot figures this morning - the MOI for all price ranges are way high. Because, since Jan 1 there’ve been 97 new listings and another 54 relisted old listings. And even with the 40 contracts I mentioned in the post just below this one, that’s 111 more listings than contracts.  For now.

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in contract this year

So far we’re off to an active start to 2016 – 40 single family homes have gone to contract in the first 19 days. (link expires 2/19/16).

31 are priced from $189,000 to $589,000  (255 are for sale)
8 from $625,000 to $989,000  (103 for sale)
And 1 lucky seller asking $1,495,000  (84 for sale)

With the lower-end of the market still on fire it’s no wonder that buyers are wasting no time to make deals. And the mid-priced market is also off to good start. The upper-end, well, 1 is better than none, we’ll see. 

Here’s a link to the number of contracts at this time last year.

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speaking of upper-end listings

We’re holding one of ours open this Sunday (1/17) from 1 to 4.

If this looks like your cup of tea, or you’re just curious, please stop by, say Hi, and see it in person.

An architecturally significant, thoroughly restored and carefully updated Spanish Colonial that exudes the grace and charm of classic old foothills living. Its design was inspired by a home in Guanajuato, Mexico, and it is rich in historic architectural elements, details and artifacts from Guanajuato and historic Tucson sites.

5330 N. Via Alcalde
Tucson, AZ 85718

Built 1969, 1.37 acres, masonry stucco construction, 4361 sf, 4 Bedrooms/3.5 Baths, Living Room, Dining Room, Library, unique “rec room”, glorious patio spanning the south side, 2 car garage. $1,225,000. 2 additional and adjacent lots are also available.

 

There’s nothing else like it.

5330 N. Via Alcalde
Tucson, AZ 85718

Listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman

John Schneider – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 271 – 4164
johnschneiders@gmail.com

Caroline Freedman – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 405 – 1794
Caroline@ok4u.com

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

even the upper-end is feeling its oats

well, sellers and listing agents are anyway.

12 brand new listings have debuted since Jan 1 priced from $1,000,000 to $2,150,000.

And another 7 homes priced from $1,095,000 to $6,500,000, that were listed before, have been listed again.

Bottom line, 84 homes for sale (and counting) from $1,000,000 to $13,900,000 vs... 33 sold from $1,000,000 to $2,400,000 all of last year.

Because our upper-end market has been so weak for so long we need nothing less than a game changer to reignite it.

 

And the only possible real game changer I see is upper-end buyers (comprised, largely, of 2nd home and retirement home buyers) finally giving in to their pent-up desire to buy a home and making a move this year.

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

it’s only 12 days but it’s a good start

17 homes sold in the first 12 days of 2016. Of course those sales are based on deals that were made in November/December 2015, so let’s compare the first 12 days of 2015 to the first 12 of this year.

First 12 days of 2015:
13 homes sold from $220,000 to $597,500 (and that’s it)
avg/median sold price of the 12 sold $345,404/$315,250

First 12 days of 2016;
17 homes sold from $204,000 to $1,550,000 (yes a $$million+ sale already, actually 2 $$million+ sales) – the other sold for $1,095,000 - and quick too, 44 & 70 days on market. avg/median sold price of the 17 sold $580,282/$429,000 - (link expires 2/12/16)

Average/median sold prices for 1st 12 days of 2016 are up 68% & 36% over 2015

Could just be a fluke or it could be a sign of things to come. I’m thinking it’s the latter, but we’ll soon see.

 

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the 1st 7 days

Judging by the number of new listings expectations for 2016 appear to be running high - 38 new listings since Jan 1 priced from $169,900 to $1,500,000. And another 36 that were listed before and failed to sell have been listed again.
(link expires 2/8/16)

And right out of the gate buyers have already put 11 homes priced from $185,000 to $725,000 in contract. It’s a start. (link expires 2/8/16)

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

 

2015, by the numbers

2015 Single family home sales up to $999,999 are Up 11% over 2014. 2015 was the 2nd best year for foothills home sales since 2005 - and Up a whopping 54% since scraping bottom in 2008. December sales provided the final push – they’re up 37% over December 2014.

 

On the other hand, uh … at $1,000,000 & UP the market is D-O-W-N 
2015 is tied with 2013 for the honor of fewest sales of any year since 2003 – when 27 sold. Yikes!

I want to think this market will (somehow) turn itself around. But at this point it’s just wishful thinking. So ignore it. There are 74 homes for sale priced from $1,000,000 to $13,900,000 and 6 in contract priced from $1,025,000 to $1,649,000. Plus one listed at $2,495,000 that's been in contract since May 2014. And that’s it.

While sales up to $999k are recovering nicely, sold prices are increasing at a snails pace. Median sold prices are up just 2.75% over 2014 – and up less than 10% since scraping bottom in 2012. And they’re still down 25% from their 2006 peak. You’d think with sales increasing as nicely as they have that we’d see a more robust increase in prices.

 

Hail Hail 2016!

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

and another thing

that hasn’t happened in years.
On 3 recent offers I made for buyers I was representing I was surprised to find there were other buyers also making offers on the property – incredibly enough, we were in a bidding war. And on another property, where we just beat the other buyers to the punch, they made a full price cash backup offer a day or two after we had put it in contract. And a month later, on the day before we closed, the backup buyers offered my buyers 12% (about $137,000) over my buyers offer.  My buyers declined.

And these weren’t cheapo homes, they were priced from the high $900’s to about $1.250. And then just the other day I got into a 3-way bidding war on a home listed in the mid $600s. Unfortunately, we lost that one. 

If it were just one or two instances I’d chalk it up to ‘whatever’, but 4 times in 6 or 7 weeks is not ‘whatever’.  It’s a pretty good sign of a stronger market.

Of course this sort of thing only happens when homes are desirable and attractively priced. 

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it’s hardly all the rage, but it does seem to be catching on

After years of the drawn out tug-of-wars over prices between buyers and sellers, increasingly we’re seeing list prices that are more closely aligned with current market values rather than being based on what the seller paid, how much they have in it or what they wish it was worth. The result is that more homes are selling and, when priced right, they’re selling quicker.

A couple of recent examples;
5980 N Placita Del Lagarto, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Shadow Hills.
The sellers paid $1,100,000 in May 2008 – just months before it all hit the fan
And last September they listed it for $917,995, soon dropped it to $885,000 and about 30 days later it went to contract and sold the other day for $873,000, after a total of 50 days on the market. And by the way, $873,000 is big buck$$$$ in Shadow Hills, real big. Since Jan 1, 2010 146 homes have sold in SH, and just one, this one, sold for $800,000 or more.

5610 E Territory Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 in Sunrise Presidio
The sellers paid $469,000 in March 2005
And last July (not the most opportune time to sell) they listed it for $445,000, soon dropped it to $425,000 and it sold the other day for $412,000 after 113 days.

And now, 3+ years after prices hit bottom, we’re also seeing a bit of price appreciation in homes that were purchased since 2011 - 2012.  
1940 E Calle La Brinca, Tucson, AZ 85718 in Cat 8 (Catalina Foothills Estates 8)
sold in 2013 for $575,000. It was then listed this past October for $625,000, went to contract in 14 days and sold for $610,000. After all was said and done the sellers didn’t make a nickel, but they didn’t lose their shirt either.

And in case you’ve forgotten how it used to go, and too often still does;
5965 N Sabino Shadow Lane, Tucson, AZ 85750
Sold in March 2006 for $760,000.
Was listed in October 2012 for $800,000 – When you wish upon a star ….
Dropped to $775 then to $720 and held on to $720 until August 2015. 
Finally, in October 2015, they threw in the towel and listed it for $589,900 and it went to contract shortly thereafter and sold the other day for $580,000.

My sense is that the tide is turning and that many of those involved in buying and selling homes in the foothills have had it with the unrealistic expectations and stubbornness of the old days. And are now looking forward to, and working both sides of the aisle, to achieve a more rational and normal market. It’s about time.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

2015 ends with a stronger, more competitive market

The end of year Market Snapshot numbers support my inkling (mentioned the other day) that the Catalina Foothills market is on the cusp of picking up its pace.

Active Listings are down 13% over end-of-year 2014
The number of Homes in contract is up 28%
Home Sales for the last 30 days are up 52% 37% (I entered 52% in error) 
On 12/31/2014 there was a 10 month supply of homes for sale
On 12/31/15 there is a 6 month supply

Today is day 1 of the New Year and day 1 of our high season for home sales here in the foothills. And while anything can happen in the months ahead, right now I see numerous signs of a market that is primed and ready to sell more homes and the potential for a bigger rise in prices than in the recent past.

We’ll soon see.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home