The Catalina Foothills

in contract last week, 9/19 – 9/25

From Monday September 19th thru Sunday September 25th,  22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 10/29/16)

14 were priced from $239,900 to $589,900
7 from $619,000 to $899,000
1 at $1,198,500

Median days on market for the 22 contracts was a quick 34 days, average was 61 days and 9 of the 22 went to contract in 7 days or less. Numbers like that are indicative of a robust market.

On that note, there were 28 actual new listings last week - plus 2 relisted old listings. But still the inventory is LOW, 369 homes for sale.

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a blast from the past

They were fairly routine back in the day, 2010 – 2012, and I thought we’d seen the last of them, but apparently this one’s been lurking in the shadows - 8511 sf, 2 story on 2.6 acres in the Mountain Estates at Ventana CC – built in 1993 and listed in 2006 for $5,150,000 ($605/sf), dropped to $3,650,000 to $2,850,000 to $2,675,000 to $2,250,000 (then about 20 itty-bitty price cuts stretched out over 2 years from $2,250,000 to $1,275,000) where it expired in April. Only to return 2 weeks ago as a foreclosure asking $949,900 ($112/sf), and (all’s well that ends well) swiftly went to contract today.

Even at the height of the market 2004 to 2007 the biggest $$$$ sale in the mountain estates was $2,476,000 in 06 – and, though many have tried, nothing higher since.

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a strong sellers market at $0 - $599,999 price range

The market at $0 to $599,999 is down to a skimpy 3.5 month supply of homes for sale - almost half the amount that is commonly considered a normal balanced market. And while this price range has done well for a long time it now appears to be kicking it up a notch or two. 

The rest of the market is not nearly as hot, though $600k - $999,999 is gaining ground with current inventory in the 7 month range - lower than most of this year.

Above that price the numbers jump into the double digits but are, for the most part, better than earlier this year.

And it’s not just us, apparently the housing market across the US is squeezed for inventory -  It’s a seller’s real-estate market, but who’s selling?

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in contract last week, 9/12 – 9/18

From Monday September 12h thru Sunday September 18th,  19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 10/21/16)

16 were priced from $225,000 to $595,000
  3 from $649,900 to $925,000
and that’s it,

The inventory is very low, just 366 single family homes for sale, while the market appears to be quite vigorous for this time of year. As a result, new listings are getting snapped up fairly quickly and older listings, that have been going nowhere, are now getting  noticed.

The numbers for the previous weeks are HERE

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Sold, 1st 2 weeks of September

 

5940 N Camino Esplendora, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Skyline Bel Air – listed $355,000 - Sold $335,000 in 82 days. Last sold in 2010 for $330,000

5931 N Camino Hombre De Oro, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Skyline Bel Air – listed $425,000 – Sold $405,000 in 7 days. Last sold 2011 as estate sale, as-is, for $305,000.

5935 N Camino Arizpe, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Skyline Bel Air – listed $435,000 – Sold $400,000 in 91 days. Last sold 2002 for $312,000.

5045 E Calle Guebabi, Tucson, AZ 85718 – yep, Skyline Bel Air, again – listed $425,000 – Sold $410,000 in 42 days. Last sold 2008 for $446,500.

6001 N Camino Esquina, Tucson, AZ 85718 – guess where, you got it, Skyline Bel Air – listed $485,000 – Sold $475,000 in 22 days.

with all those sales in just two weeks,  there are still 10 homes for sale in SBA

What else sold;

6171 N Camino De Michael, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Shadow Hills – listed $549,500 – Sold $535,000  in 145 days. Last sold 2014 for $555,000.

5791 N Camino De La Sombra, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Shadow Hills, again  – listed $469,000 – Sold $447,500 in 10 days. Last sold 1992 for $158,000.

1180 E Calle Mariposa, Tucson, AZ 85718 – and again, Shadow Hills – listed $729,000 – Sold $675,000 in 74 days. Last sold 2001 $333,000.

and 10 homes still for sale in Shadow Hills

What else;

5935 N Via Paloma Silvestre, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Village Five At the Villages Of La Paloma – listed $543,000 (Feb 2015) – Sold $401,500 in 542 days. 
No record of previous, 2004, sale price. 

4635 N Black Rock Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Sabino Mountain – listed $472,500 – Sold $460,000 in 3 days. Last sold 2004 $472,500.

5014 N Bonita Ridge Av Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Bonita Ridge – listed $475,000 – Sold $465,000 in 14 days. Last sold 2007 $518,000.

4420 E Havasu Road, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Coronado Foothills – listed $500,000 – Sold $480,000 in 66 days. Last sold 2013 $410,000.

2111 E Camino El Ganado, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Catalina Foothills Estates 5 – listed $615,000 – Sold $560,000 in 67 days.

6481 N Silversmith Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Silverton – listed $660,000 – Sold $559,350 in 368 days.

5276 N Via Velazquez, Tucson, AZ 85750 - Sunrise Mountain View Estates – listed $595,000 – Sold $595,000 in 5 days. Last sold 2013 $443,000.

6441 N Placita Alta Reposa, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Alta Vista – listed $810,000 – Sold $752,500 in 183 days. Last sold 1998 $525,000.

7190 E Desert Moon Loop, Tucson, AZ 85750 – Ventana Canyon Estates – listed $1,149,000 (Feb 2015) – Sold $740,000 in 502 days. Last sold 1993 $500,000.

7142 N PLACITA SIN CODICIA, Tucson, AZ 85718 – Sin Vacas – listed $925,000 – Sold $743,500 in 384 days. No previous sale records.

2462 E Calle Sin Controversia, Tucson, AZ 85718 – also Sin Vacas – listed $795,000 – Sold $740,000 in 214 days. Last sold 2011 $585,000.

3100 N Lodge Road, Tucson, AZ 85750 – un-subdivided – listed $1,000,750 – Sold $760,000 in 212 days.

That’s it, thank goodness.
Tedious, to be sure, but a hot-off-the-press example of how the market’s doing right now - Selling quickly and for close to asking up to about $600k, slower and with more give on prices above that. Also, there were 9 other lower-priced sales ($200 - $300k) during this period that I did not include.

So far, September 2016 median sold prices are up 8% over Sept 2015.

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in contract the last 3 weeks, 8/22 – 9/11

From Monday August 22nd thru Sunday September 11th,  54 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 10/13/16)

45 were priced from $228,000 to $598,000
6 from $625,000 to $889,500
3 from $1,060,000 to $1,899,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

Currently there are just 375 single family homes for sale – a very lean inventory. Any day now that number should start to increase as we transition from a summer to a fall market.

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Catalina Foothills August Home Sales

Another solid month for home sales - 80 homes sold in August – the most homes sold in August since August 2005.

Thru August 634 single family homes sold this year – a 6.5% bump over last years 595 sold.

Average sold prices were higher this August than in any of the last 20 months – due largely to 9 homes (nine) selling at $1,000,000+, in August - that’s huge for any month, for August it’s xtra-huge. 3 sold in August 2015, 4 sold in Aug 2014 and 9 sold in Aug 2006  - the peak year for $1.0m+ sales.

On the other hand median sold prices went nowhere.

Thru August average/median sold prices are $493,863/$400,000
Thru August 2015 they were $484,291/$418,000 – so even with the big $$$$ bump in August average prices are up barely 2% while median are down 4.5%.
Nothing to brag about there.

Meanwhile, the number of homes for sale is at a new low – 373 single family homes for sale, including just 69 for sale at $1,000,000+, the lowest it’s been in years. 

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putting the rise in upper-end sales in perspective

From time to time since February I’ve observed, noted and sometimes touted the signs of an improving upper-end market. And, happily, to this day that upward trend continues – upper-end sales are up from last year and up from every year since they tanked (we thought) in 2009. But, unhappily, they tanked even further in 2011, 2013 & 2015. All odd numbered years, hmmm?

Since 2009 the market has seesawed, up one year and down the next.

It’s up this year but how do we know this is the real deal, that the market is going to continue on this upswing. My answer – I don’t know, do you. 

Last year (from 1/1 – 8/31) 24 homes sold at $1,000,000+.
This year 37 sold - 54% more, hurrah, but from a pretty low base.

A similar scenario took place during the same period in 2011 – 2012.
27 homes sold in 2011 and 34 sold in 2012 – a 26% increase.
But instead of continuing on that upswing, sales dropped to just 25 homes in 2013 – a 26% decrease.

I think the upper-end market in the Catalina Foothills is still a fragile market, largely subject to the willingness and consent to participate of many discretionary buyers. If sellers become irrationally exuberant over the increase in sales and take it as an opportunity to unreasonably raise their prices (or, depending, raise them at all), then 2017 may well end up looking like a repeat of one of those other odd numbered years.

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a new high for Shadow Hills

1180 E Calle Mariposa, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold the other day for $675,000 ($232/sf) – the highest $/sf sold price this year, and last year and …

21 homes sold since Jan 1 – 13 sold for under $200/sf – from $135 to $196,
+ 8 from $201 to $232. The 2nd, 3rd and 4th highest $/sf sales were $220, $212 and $207/sf. Average $/sf sold for the group is $182/sf.

During the same period last year 20 homes sold with the highest $/sf at $202 - the only sale above $200/sf. The other 19 ranged from $120 to $189/sf. Average $/sf sold for the group was $165/sf.

So, $/sf sold prices in SH are UP 10% over last year - good news for Shadow Hills sellers - yet still have a long way to go to catch up to where they were at the height of the market in 2006 when average $/sf sold prices were $226/sf.

PS - just for the ‘fun’ of it I looked at sales from January 2008 and, with 200 homes sold in SH since then, Calle Mariposa is still in the top 4 for highest $/sf sold price. It should be noted that a mortgage was taken and, apparently, Mariposa appraised for at least the sale price – even better news for Shadow Hills sellers. 

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has the upper-end market improved this much

4665 N Quartz Hill Place, Tucson, AZ 85750, a contemporary built off the side of a ridge in 2010, sold quickly as a foreclosure in 2014 for the bargain basement price of $630,500. No surprise there. But it sold again the other day, after just 17 days, for $1,025,000 (from $1.099 list price). When it sold in 2014 it was in good condition, not perfect, but not beaten up like many foreclosures – so there wasn’t a ton of $$ that needed to go into it, not that I could see.

I showed it in 2014 but my buyer wasn’t ready to take that steep a leap

Literally, yep, an awfully steep driveway. And I can tell you from experience that homes with steep driveways, when they’re steep going down to the house – like this one is, are usually a very tough sale. At $630,500 it was a deal, steep driveway and all. That seller took a risk and made a quick bundle.  

 

3174 E Via Palomita, Tucson, AZ 85718 was on and off the market since 2007, when it started out asking $1,850,000, and ended up selling the other day for $1,200,000 from a $1,200,000 list price.

A perfectly nice house, very attractive inside and out, newer, built 2005, it appeared to be very well built masonry construction, in meticulous condition and a great location in La Paloma Estates. For a long time it was overpriced but by 2014 it had dropped to $1,350,000 but still no sale. So what gives, why no sale. Because the sellers were looking for a needle in a haystack – looking for a buyer willing to spend $1.2 or more for a house with no views.
There are no views from the house and just a sliver of a mountain view from the middle of the back yard. I’d guess that if it had a north/south orientation with good mountain views it would have sold years ago for $1,400,000 or more.

As I’ve mentioned previously (over and over again), the upper-end market has improved this year. But I’m still very surprised that Quartz Hill went so quickly (and for so much) and that Via Palomita got $1.2 with no views.

But there you go, I don’t call the shots, buyers do.

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