From time to time since February I’ve observed, noted and sometimes touted the signs of an improving upper-end market. And, happily, to this day that upward trend continues – upper-end sales are up from last year and up from every year since they tanked (we thought) in 2009. But, unhappily, they tanked even further in 2011, 2013 & 2015. All odd numbered years, hmmm?
Since 2009 the market has seesawed, up one year and down the next.
It’s up this year but how do we know this is the real deal, that the market is going to continue on this upswing. My answer – I don’t know, do you.
Last year (from 1/1 – 8/31) 24 homes sold at $1,000,000+.
This year 37 sold - 54% more, hurrah, but from a pretty low base.
A similar scenario took place during the same period in 2011 – 2012.
27 homes sold in 2011 and 34 sold in 2012 – a 26% increase.
But instead of continuing on that upswing, sales dropped to just 25 homes in 2013 – a 26% decrease.
I think the upper-end market in the Catalina Foothills is still a fragile market, largely subject to the willingness and consent to participate of many discretionary buyers. If sellers become irrationally exuberant over the increase in sales and take it as an opportunity to unreasonably raise their prices (or, depending, raise them at all), then 2017 may well end up looking like a repeat of one of those other odd numbered years.
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