The Catalina Foothills

in contract last week, 5/22 – 5/28/17

From Monday May 22nd thru Sunday May 28th,  31 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/30/17)

22 were priced from $244,000 to $599,900
8 from $639,000 to $949,000
1 at $1,100,000

100° in the shade and the market is still cooking.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

May sales in the $500’s

In Skyline Bel Air, 5822 N Placita Bacanora, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed in mid January at $550,000, dropped to $540 then (gosh) to $535,000 and after 97 days went to contract and closed for $520,000 ($190/sf). PS – it last sold in October 2016 for $350,000 with the intent to remodel and flip it, and that they did, a very quick remodel and flip. Zillow had it at $486,510.

 

  In Sunrise Mountain View Estates, 5281 N Via Velazquez, Tucson, AZ 85750 was listed in February for $572,000, dropped to $540,000 in March, went to contract soon after and closed in May for $535,000 ($203/sf). Zillow nailed it at $541,625.

In Catalina Foothills Estates 9, 6990 N Solaz Segundo, Tucson, AZ 85718 started at $620,000 last December and after a few price cuts dropped down to $549,000, went to contract  shortly thereafter(127 days from listing) and closed in May for $540,000 ($166/sf). PS- it sold in 2004 for $618,000 and in 2010 for $544,000. Zillow had it at $586,533.

In Catalina Foothills Estates 5, 2030 E Cerrada Nopal, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed at $649,500 last October and after dropping to $550,000 went to contract (90 days after listing) and closed for $550,000, full price. How nice, except the sellers paid $680,000 for it in 2007. Zillow called it at $574,124.

In Rockcliff, 4520 N Quartz Hill Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750 was listed for $565,0000 in March, went to contract 3 days later and closed for $538,400 in May. Nice going, the sellers made out, they paid $429,900 in 2013, however, the $429 sellers got creamed, they paid $639,000 in 2007. Zillow - $582,149.

In Shadow Hills, 1340 E Calle Mariposa, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed for $575,000 in early January, went to contract in March and closed at $560,000 in May. At $706,178 Zillow was way off on cloud 9, instead of in Shadow Hills.

At the Ridge at Ventana, 6586 E Ventana Crest Place, Tucson, AZ 85750 was listed for $579,000 in March, went to contract 31 days later and sold for $550,000 cash. No muss, fuss or bother. And at $561,479, Zillow was also on board.

In Flecha Caida Ranch Estates, 4700 N Caida Place, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold quickly. Listed on 3/22 for $595,950, it went to contract 6 days later and closed in May for $552,500. Zillow - $582,812.

In Skyline CC, 4732 E Mission Hill Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718 (one of the few newer homes in Skyline) was listed for $610,000 in March, went to contract 10 days later and sold for $595,000. The sellers paid $610,000 in 2016 and those sellers paid $764,500 in 2008. Zillow nailed it at  $597,703.

That’s it, 9 sales in the $500’s so far in May.

From $500,000 to $600,000 there are 56 homes listed for sale, 22 in contract and 11 sold in the last 30 days. That works out to 5 months of inventory, an ever so slightly lean supply.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/15 – 5/21/17

From Monday May 15th thru Sunday May 21st,  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/23/17)

18 were priced from $179,900 to $599,000
5 from $650,000 to $995,000
2 at $1,195,000 & $1,250,000

In recent weeks I’ve noted that the number of contracts had dropped off a bit. However, with 25 contracts last week the numbers are up again. And so far this week, and it’s only 9:40am on Wednesday, there are already 20 homes in contract.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

web site down

my website, thefoothillstoday.com, is temporarily down.

Very sorry for the inconvenience, back up soon, I pray.

Thank you for your understanding.

John Schneider

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TheFoothillsToday.com is back up and running.

Thank you for your patience.

John Schneider

tedious tidbits

More tidbits than you may care to know about the Catalina Foothills market, but … 

Today, there are nearly 14% fewer homes for sale, 403, than the 468 that were for sale at the same time last year
Yet, YTD 13% more homes have sold this year, 364, than YTD last year, 321.

At what prices are they selling?
This year;
$0 - $299k – 59 sold
$300 - $599K – 220 sold
$600 - $999k – 65 sold 
$1.0mil+ – 20 sold

Last year;
$0 - $299 – 81 sold 
$300 - $599k – 165 sold 
$600 - $999k – 58 sold 
$1.0mil+ – 17 sold

Dollar Volume of all homes sold;
This year - $179,926,566  - Up 16+% over
Last year - $154,436,840
 

YTD median sold price is $425,000 - Up 9% over $390,000 last year

YTD median sold $$/sf is $167 – was $163 last year

YTD they’re selling quicker this year, 37 median days on market v. 55 last year

# of Sales in the 3 zip codes that comprise the Catalina Foothills;
This year:
85718 – 179 sold
85750 – 149 sold
85704 – 36 sold

Last year;
85718 – 141 sold 
85750 – 133 sold
85704 – 47 sold


Median sold price by zip code;
This year:
85718 - $485,000 
85750 - $392,500
85704 - $340,000

Last year:
85718 - $489,000
85750 - $375,000 
85704 - $255,800

Was that fun or what. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/8 – 5/14/17

From Monday May 8th thru Sunday May 14th,  17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/15/17)

13 were priced from $139,900 to $589,000
4 from $600,000 to $895,000
And that’s it!

tidbit - the number of contracts are down a bit, again, and last week is the first week this year without a contract at $1million+ -  but Hey it's May. Have you noticed how many fewer shoppers there are in your favorite grocery store today than there were 1, 2 or 3 months ago. Despite our unusually balmy May weather many snowbirds have already flown the coop.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Bought then, selling now

Unfortunately, if you bought during the boom years, 2005 – 2008 and are selling now, there’s a good chance that you will be selling at a loss. It’s not you, it’s the market. Overall median sold prices in the foothills are down 21% from their peak in 2006. Needless to say, many home owners are selling at a loss this year.

Hoping the market would improve, I believe that many homeowners held off for years listing their homes, or listed them at totally unrealistic prices and got nowhere. And many of them have now  thrown in towel or are just tired of waiting and have accepted the realities of the market and are listing their homes at more realistic prices. And the market has improved and, I hope, will continue to do so, but so far not enough to compete with sky high 2005 – 2007 sold prices.

The following is not a complete list, not nearly, it’s a small sample of selling prices then and now for homes in different subdivisions across the foothills.
- Click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale.

In Alta Vista - 6153 E Avenida De Kira, Tucson, AZ 85750
sold for $1,050,000 in 2004 and for $1,275,000 in 2005 (a 21% jump in 13 months, those were the days)  and for $950,000 last month - a 25% drop in 12 years.

In Coronado Foothills Estates - 6696 N Cocopas Road, Tucson, AZ 85718
sold for $950,000 in 2006 and for $700,000 this March, a 26% drop.

In Bellas Catalinas - 4239 N Placita De Sandra, Tucson, AZ 85718
sold for $650,000 in 2006 and for $640,000 this January, a 1.5% drop.

Yes, it’s true. The bigger they are the harder they fall. In general, there are exceptions, lower priced homes are not seeing the big price drops that are rampant at the upper-end.

In Sunrise Territory Village - 4998 N Fort Verde Trail, Tucson, AZ 85750
sold for $625,000 in August 2008 and for $625,000 this February

On Sabino Mountain - 4081 N Quail Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750
sold for $875,000 in 2005 and they added about $100,000 in improvements whereupon in 2009 they tried for $1,349,000 then  $1,299,000 then $1,195,000 with more cut, cut, cuts over the years, and sold for $845,000 2 weeks ago. down just 3% not counting the $100thou for improvements.

On un-subdivided land - 3950 N River Bluff Place, Tucson, AZ 85750
sold for $947,500 in 2008, for $432,000 in 2014 and for $620,000 last month.
- 54% in 2014 & up 43% in 2017.

In Cobblestone - 7421 N Moon Spirit Lane, Tucson, AZ 85718
sold for $1,600,000 in 2007 and for $1,296,500 this March, -19%.

In Catalina Foothills Estates NO. 2 - 4905 N Camino Antonio, Tucson, AZ 85718 got off easy. It sold for $1,350,000 on July 30, 2008, (the 11th hour for the boom years) and for $1,325,000 this March, down barely 2%,

In Cimarron - 6057 E Paseo Ventoso, Tucson, AZ 85750
sold for $912,000 in 2007 and for $779,000 two weeks ago, –14%

In Montanas De Paz - 4865 E Placita Provida, Tucson, AZ 85718
sold for $1,400,000 in 2007, for $1,136,500 in 2013 and for $1,250,000 last month. Down 19% in 2013 and up 10 in 2017.

In Pima Canyon - 1608 E Desert Garden Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
sold for $1,177,500 in 2007 and for $840,000 this April  - down almost 29%.

In Sin Vacas - 7660 N Camino Sin Vacas, Tucson, AZ 85718
sold for $1,285,000 in 2005 and for $899,000 last May – down 30%.

Almost all of the homes listed above tried for months, or even years, to sell at higher and often much higher prices and eventually gave in to the reality of the market place.

On the other hand, if you bought at the bottom of the market in 2012 or thereabouts you should be golden, overall median sold prices are up 20% since then. And rising. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 5/1 – 5/7/2017

From Monday May 1st thru Sunday May 7th,  20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/8/17)

11 were priced from $235,000 to $530,000
8 from $629,900 to $899,500
1 at $1,250,000

a somewhat slower week than we’ve come to expect,

The numbers for the previous weeks are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

The First 4 Months; Catalina Foothills Homes Sales & Sold Prices

The following charts track single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills for January thru April from 2004 to 2017.

First up, Homes Sold up to $999,999

Sales continue their upward climb, we’re just an iota behind 2004 sales and are now within striking distance of sales at the tippy-top of the Happy Days market of 2005.
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Next, oops!, sales at $1,000,000+

Not such a breezy outlook for sales at $1,000,000+. We’ve lost ground. Thru March of this year sales at $1.0+ were ahead of last year and every prior year (except 2012) back to 2008. Now we’re tied with 2016 and, even, a few sales below where we were in 2010, 2012 and 2013.  Glory is fleeting. But it ain’t over til it’s over – there are 14 homes in contract listed from $1,049,000 to $2,175,000, and there are still 8 months to go.  So, we’ll see.

                              --------------------------------------------------

And Median sold prices

Sold prices this year continue to hold their lead over prior years, median sold prices this year are up 10% over last year and 20% above scrapping bottom in 2012. And they are higher than every year since 2008. No small feat.

For what it’s worth, 
This may be a little late, no kidding, but I just came across a forecast from Realtor.com for nationwide home sales in 2017. And guess what, Tucson is forecast to be one of the top10 housing markets (in the entire USA) based on price and sales gains in 2017. Little old Tucson

Tucson shares the top honors and limelight with the other top performers;
1. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.; 2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.; 3. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.; 4. Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.; 5. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.; 6. Jacksonville, Fla.; 7. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.; 8. Raleigh, N.C.; 9. Tucson, Ariz.; and 10. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

Read all about it - Realtor.com® 2017 National Housing Forecast

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

part 2, the market is stronger this year, right

This is a follow-up to part 1 of “the market is stronger …., and here we look at subdivisions located east of Swan Rd where, in theory, we should discover evidence of this years 10% rise in median sold prices that were not evident in subdivisions located west of Swan. 

The following figures are for single family homes sold from Jan 1 thru April 30th 2016 & 2017.
off we go,

Alta Vista
2016
3 homes sold at a median sold price of $575,000 in 130 median days on market (MDOM)

2017
4 sold at a median sold price of $857,500 in 138 MDOM – BINGO!, up 49% in AV.

Cimarron
2016
3 sold at $525,000 in 195 MDOM

2017
8 sold at $702,250 in 67 MDOM – Cim’s up 33%, we’re on a roll

Flecha Caida
2016
10 sold at $370,000 in 132 MDOM

2017
8 sold at $440,000 in 65 MDOM – up 19%, & quicker too.

Fairfield/Sunrise
2016
9 sold at $392,000  in 89 MDOM

2017
also 9 sold but at $455,000 in 53 MDOM – up 16%

Villages of Ventana
2016
3 sold at a cheap-cheap $272,500 in 6 MDOM

2017
3 sold at $375,000 in 3 MDOM – up 37%

Ventana Country Club (including all of its meandering and constituent subdivisions)
2016
11 sold at $720,000 in 85 MDOM

2017
10 sold at $637,500 in 4 MDOM – party pooper, down 11%

and, last but not least,
Sabino Mountain
2016
5 sold at $369,000 in 218 MDOM

2017
6 sold at $594,000 in 41 MDOM – up a whopping 61%

Well, there you have it, mystery solved. Median sold prices are UP UP UP east of Swan and they’re flat or down west of Swan. Why is that? Is it because buyers prefer the east side of the foothills and therefore there’s more demand. Well, sort of but not exactly.

My theory, it is not, per se, about a preference for the east side, it’s about the cost of homes east side v. west side. 

Homes on the east side of the foothills are generally cheaper than those on the west side. Generally, not absolutely, with Ventana being the most obvious exception. Said another way, for the same $$ amount you can get more house for your $$ on the east side than on the west side. And, and this is important, homes on the east side are, overall, also newer (or at least less old) than homes west of Swan. And that demand (and low supply) is driving up prices for lower priced homes on the east side.

Lower priced homes have been selling like crazy for  a few years now, the supply of homes priced up to $599k has been and continues to be (very low) in the 3 – 4 month range. While higher priced homes have not fared nearly as well, the inventory is higher and sales are not nearly as brisk. 

Got a different, better, more amusing theory, love to hear it.
Thanks, JS

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the last 2 weeks, 4/17 – 4/30/2017

From Monday April 17th thru Sunday April 30th,  51 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/1/17)

40 were priced from $245,000 to $575,000
7 from $600,000 to $874,000
4 from $1,070,000 to $1,599,000

With just a 3 month supply of homes for sale homes priced up to $599,999 continue to be in very short supply. The middle of the market, from $600k to $999k is at 7 months inventory, a tad over 6 months, which is considered a normal balanced market. And while homes priced at $1million and Up are still bloated with inventory they continue going to contract at a healthy clip. See the Market Snapshot for a breakdown of contracts, sales and inventory by price range.

The numbers for the previous weeks are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

the market is stronger this year, right

For the last few months I’ve gabbed about and posted data showing that sales and median sold prices are UP appreciably this year over last year and that homes are also selling faster this year. And it’s true, they are, but is it true across the board. Heck no.

Let’s have a look at how sales are doing in some of the more popular subdivisions across the Catalina Foothills. The following figures are for single family homes sold from Jan 1 thru April 30th each year.

Let’s start with,
Shadow Hills 
2016; 
8 homes sold at a median sold price of $462,500 in 19 median days on market (MDOM)

2017
7 sold at a median sold price of $500,000 in 35 MDOM

Skyline Bel Air
2016
2 sold at $408,500 in 18 MDOM

2017
11 sold at $402,000 in 13 MDOM

Foothills Clusters
2016
3 sold at $269,900 in 5 MDOM

2017
2 sold at $286,500 in 9 MDOM

Pima Canyon
2016
1 sold for $1,751,330 in 13 DOM (my listing)

2017
4 sold at $1,195,000 in 228 MDOM

Cobblestone
2016
1 sold for $1,350,000 in 67 DOM

2017
3 sold at  $1,075,000 in 38 MDOM

Sin Vacas
2016
2 sold at $666,660 in 202 MDOM

2017
4 sold at  $645,000 in 84 MDOM

La Paloma (including all of its meandering and constituent subdivisions)
2016
14 sold at $624,500 in 44 MDOM

2017
19 sold at $465,000 in 106 MDOM

Catalina Foothills Estates 1-9
2016
20 sold at $525,000 in 25 MDOM

2017
24 sold at $511,000 in 45 MDOM

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
2016
3 sold at $1,000,000 in 62 MDOM

2017
5 sold at $1,040,000 in 63 MDOM

Hacienda del Sol Estates
2016
3 sold at $895,000 in 14 MDOM

2017
nothing sold

Foothills ll
2016
nothing sold

2017
1 sold at $425,000 in 0 DOM

Pinnacle Ridge
2016
2 sold at $677,000 in 15 days

2017
1 sold at  $779,000 in 81 DOM

Skyline Country Club
2016
7  sold at  $600,000 in 64 MDOM

2017
9 sold at $500,000 in 2 (two) MDOM
earlier in the year I mentioned that fixer uppers were flying off the shelf in Skyline , and here they are.

Coronado Foothills Estates
2016
6 sold at $610,000 in 62 MDOM

2017
10 sold at $530,000 in 24 MDOM

The rise in sales is evident, even from this small sample, but obviously I haven’t yet tapped into the areas where prices are rising. Perhaps it’s all happening east of Swan. We’ll see, I’ll run through the subdivisions in that area in the next day or two.

Preliminary numbers for sales and prices Jan – April 2016 & 2017

2016 – 273 sold at median sold price of $389,900 in 54 MDOM

2017 – 319 sold at median sold price of $430,000 in 38 MDOM

That puts 2017 sales up a tad shy of 17% and median sold prices up 10%. So it's happening somewhere.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home