The Catalina Foothills

in contract last week, 7/17 – 7/23/17

From Monday July 17th thru Sunday July 23rd, 15 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 8/28/17)

14 were priced from $179,900 to $550,000
1 at $745,000
and that’s it.

A slow week in the middle of July, whodathunkit!

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

Maybe there just aren’t enough homes to choose from, with homes priced from $180,000 all the way up to $4,900,000, and just 330 homes for sale, that’s a lot of ground to cover.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Last year at this time …

I wrote about the unusually large number of contracts for upper-end homes that were initiated during the typically slower months of June and July – 13 contracts for homes priced from $1,100,000 to $2,000,000 initiated from June 1st – July 21st.

This year, June and July are doing pretty good, but not quite as good as last year, just 9 homes priced at $1.0+ have gone to contract since this June 1st.

What’s more, the price spread on last year’s 13 contracts was from $1,100,000 to $2,000,000, and - with contracts at $1.2, $1.250, $1.395, $1.495, $1.590, $1.6, $1.799, $1.950, $1.975 - everything in between.

This year the upper and lower end are similar, from $1,000,000 to $2,000,000, but the in between is pretty different, with contracts at $1.025, $1.049, $1.179, $1,199, $1.199, $1,250 and $1.475 -----------------------to $2.0.

Last year was a (relatively) very good year for the upper-end market and for a while it looked like this year was going to be even better. But, with fewer homes in contract and only a slim lead over last years sales (33 v. 28), it's looking less certain than it did a few months ago.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 7/10 – 7/16/17

From Monday July 10th thru Sunday July 16th, 24 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 8/18/17)

19 were priced from $259,900 to $599,000
  5 from $674,995 to $730,000
and that’s it. A (rare) week with nothing at $1.0+

And, aside from no deals at $1.0+,  there goes my observation that we are in the doldrums of a summer slowdown. 24 contracts is not shabby.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

The number of homes for sale keeps dropping, now at 335 single family homes for sale in Catalina Foothills.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in your favorite Catalina Foothills subdivision, July 2017

With the winter/spring selling season behind us it’s a good time to check out how different Catalina Foothills subdivisions fared during the first 6 months (1/1 – 6/30/17) – our busiest time of year. The following is a snapshot of market activity in a variety of subdivisions across the Catalina Foothills.
Click any of the highlighted subdivision names to see all the homes currently for sale – continuously updated.

Let’s start with

Alta Vista

6 homes for sale  from $649,000 to $995,000 + one at $2,000,000
median list price $902,500

0 homes in contract

9 homes sold from $575,000 to $950,000
median sold price $765,000

AV enters our slower summer market with a tidy 4 month supply of homes. And, except for the $2.0 listing, with list and sale prices that are more or less in accord.

Foothills Clusters

Gone Fishing! Nothing for sale

2 homes in contract at $275,000 & $360,000
median list price $317,500

8 homes sold from $245,000 to $375,000
median sold price $318,000

The 8 homes that sold sold in just 14 median days on market.

Skyline Bel Air
7 homes for sale from $385,000 to $775,000
median list price $608,500

3 homes in contract from $399,900 to $525,000
median list price $465,000

14 homes sold from $285,000 to $750,000
median sold price $419,500
Last year at this time there were 10 homes for sale and just 4 sold in SBA, a 15 month supply of homes. This year there’s a squeaky tight 3 month supply. But, with a big gap between median list and median sold prices. Why, because every year more and more homes are renovated and relisted (flipped) at higher prices and the upper-end in SBA (around $700k+) is meeting some resistance. Since 2012 114 homes have sold in SBA, but just 4 of them sold for $700k or more. Nevertheless, it may take a little longer but I have no doubt (or very little anyway) that sales at $700k+ will become more commonplace. The potential and the location-location is just too good to keep it down.

Shadow Hills
4 homes for sale from $425,000 to $659,000
median list price $642,500

8 homes in contract from $395,000 to $600,000
median list price $512,450

14 sold from $405,000 to $765,000
median sold price $560,000

As popular as ever Shadow Hills has barely a 2 month supply of homes for sale.

Pima Canyon
14 homes for sale from $799,000 to $2,000,000
median list price $1,219,500

1 home in contract at $1,049,000

6 homes sold from $840,000 to $1,500,000
median sold price $1,237,500 
The good news is that median list and sold prices are in sync, but there’s a lot more for sale than has sold in the last 6 months (our busiest time of year) and it’s now the middle of July. And sales for the first 6 months of this year beat the pants off last years' numbers, just 2 sold from Jan – June.  

Sin Vacas (not including Villa Milano)
4 homes for sale from $562,000 to $1,445,000
median list price $860,000

1 home in contract at $799,000

5 homes sold from $450,000 to $787,000
median sold price $600,000
With just under 5 months of inventory + 1 in contract SV is holding its own.

La Paloma 
23 homes for sale from $299,000 to $1,249,000
median list price $539,000

3 homes in contract from $399,000 to $539,800
median list price $539,800

and the winner is La Paloma, with a whopping
29 homes sold from $258,000 to $1,115,000
median sold price $430,000
Which, if nothing else, speaks to the popularity of La P.
A beautiful place in a great location with a choice of homes in just about every price range.

Flecha Caida
12 homes for sale from $345,000 to $950,000
median list price $602,450

5 homes in contract from $349,000 to $680,000
median list price $439,000

12 homes sold from $290,000 to $666,000 + 1 at $900,000
median sold price $417,500.
Homes are selling in Flecha but mostly at the lower to lower middle end of the market. Since Jan 1, 2012, 129 homes sold in Flecha at a median sold price of $400,000, and just 5 of them sold at $700k or more.

 

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
8 homes for sale from $925,000 to $2,495,000
median list price $1,224,250

0 homes in contract

6 homes sold from $525,000 to $1,300,000
median sold price $1,065,300
An 8 month supply of homes for Cat 10, not bad for a community of mostly upper-end homes. The home that sold for $525k is technically in the Cat 10 subdivision, but only technically. It is located on Hacienda del Sol Rd and is not accessible from nor located within the gated area of Cat 10.

Cimarron
10 homes for sale from $350,000 to $1,095,000
median list price $602,500

3 homes in contract from $500,000 to $849,900
median list price $650,000

11 homes sold from $338,999 to $1,010,000
median sold price $650,000
Just under a 6 month supply of homes for sale, and list and sold prices that are on the same page.

Fairfield
3 homes for sale from $353,900 to $500,000
median list price $374,500

1 in contract at $270,000

13 homes sold from $254,000 to $625,000
median sold price $440,000

With just over a 1 month supply of homes it’s a strong sellers market in Fairfield. The 13 sold sold in just 53 median days on market.

Ventana CC
17 homes for sale from $400,000 to $4,900,000
median list price $995,000

1 home in contract at $624,000

16 homes sold from $380,000 to $1,647,313
median sold price $655,000
Overall, sales were quite good in Ventana. But there are still 8 homes for sale from $1,100,00 to $4,900,000. And that may take a while.

And that’s it! Thanks for tuning in.
Contact me if you have any questions.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

in contract last week, 7/3–7/9/17

From Monday July 3rd thru Sunday July 9th, just 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 8/12/17)

10 were priced from $189,500 to $565,000
  2 at $635,000 & $749,900
  1 at $1,000,000

This is the 2nd week in a row with the number of contracts in low teens v. the mid twenties a few weeks ago. No worries, it”s a summer thing, it’ll pass.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

In contract last week, 6/26 – 7/2/17

From Monday June 26th thru Sunday July 2nd, just 14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link will expire 8/7/17)

10 were priced from $295,000 to $539,900
  3 from $650,000 to $799,000
  1 at $1,049,000

14 homes to contract is a pretty big drop in contracts from recent weeks. The doldrums of summer may finally be upon us. If you’re a buyer it’s a good time to buy, because there are fewer buyers, less competition but, on the other hand, also fewer homes to choose from as fewer sellers are listing their homes at this time of year. Currently, just 358 homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills. A low for the year and not likely to go up much, if at all, until September or October.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

The First 6 Months; Catalina Foothills Single Family Home Sales & Sold Prices

The following charts track single family home sales & sold prices in the Catalina Foothills for January - June of each year from 2004 to 2017.

First up, the number of homes sold up to $999,999

For the first 6 months, sales this year are UP 8.4% over 2016 and are higher than every year since 2005.

Next up, the number of homes sold at $1,000,000 or more

 
 For the first 6 months, sales at $1,000,000+ are UP 24% over 2016 and are higher than every year since 2008. For the first time in years we have now had 2 years in a row of rising sales. However, with 73 homes still for sale and 31 sold in the last 6 months, it is still a market that has a long way to go.

Finally, Median sold prices for Catalina Foothills homes.

Median sold prices continued to rise in June. They are UP 7% over this May and UP almost 4% over June 2016. And for the first 6 months sold prices this year are UP 8.4% over Jan – June 2016. And they are higher than any Jan – June period since 2008. So no matter how you look at it, sold prices are UP.

The May report is HERE

A very positive and encouraging 6 months for Catalina Foothills home sales.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Fun facts about the Tucson $1,000,000+ home market

Let's first look at the three main areas where $1,000,000+ homes sell. The following chart shows the number of homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the first 6 months of each year, in the Catalina Foothills, in the Northwest including Oro Valley and Marana, and in the Northeast including Tucson CC.

area	2015	2016	2017
Catalina Foothills	15	25	31
Northwest	14	16	16
Northeast	3	3	3

  

 So, since 2015 sales in the Catalina Foothills have doubled while sales in the Northwest and Northeast have barely budged. 

For comparison, from January 1st - June 30th 2006, the peak year for $1,000,000+ home sales in Tucson
76 homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the Catalina Foothills - 145% more than sold this year
11 homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the Northwest - 31% less than sold this year. (due to the fact that the number of $1.0+ homes for sale has grown -  because so many $1.0+ homes and spec homes have been built in the NW since then, though not many more are selling) 
8 homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the Northeast - 166% more than sold this year, but still small potatoes, a fraction of the market.

Currently, at $1,000,000 & UP;

• in the Catalina Foothills there are 74 homes for sale and 31 sold in the last 6 months, equals 14 Months Of Inventory, MOI.
• in the Northwest there are 53 homes for sale and 16 sold in the last 6 months, equals 20 MOI
• in the Northeast there are only 14 homes for sale but only 3 sold in the last 6 months, equals 28 MOI.
  Computed like this > ( # of homes for sale  ÷  # of homes sold in last 6 months X 6 (months) = the MOI ) 
  
  6 months of inventory is considered a normal, balanced market. Much less than that and it becomes a sellers market, while, with much more it becomes a buyers market.  MOI is a basic measure of recent supply and demand.
  So with MOI way above 6 months, all three areas are deep in buyers market territory, at least on paper they are. In real life, in the Foothills anyway, (I can't speak for the NE or NW)  the nicest, most desirable homes are not going for the deep discounts one might expect given the high MOI. 
  
  Of all the homes sold from Jan 1 - June 30th 2016, where were the top 10 highest priced sales located; in the Catalina Foothills, the Northwest or the Northeast. The envelope please,  
• 3 in the Northwest sold for; $3,000,000, $2,272,554 & $1,593,000
• 7 in the Catalina Foothills sold for; $2,800,000, $2,100,000, $1,800,000, $1,751,330, $1,750,000, $1,715,000 & $1,625,000
  
  Tidbit - I recently ran across an online article from the AZ Daily Star that purported to show where the top 25 highest priced sales occurred in 2016. And after a quick check I found that at least two sales in the Catalina Foothills that were conspicuous by their absence from the top 25 list. Sales that should have been included in the top 10, never mind the top 25, but were not included at all. Yet, oddly enough, quite a few much lower priced sales in the Northwest were included. Hmm! Oh well, who knows how or why. 
  
  Same exercise for this year, Jan 1 - June 30th 2017
• 5 in the Northwest sold for; $2,200,000, $1,768,000, $1,744,900, $1,500,000 & $1,412,500
• 5 in the Catalina Foothills sold for; $2,000,000, $1,960,000, $1,920,000, $1,647,313 & $1,500,000.
  
  
• That's it for now. 
  
  see TheFoothillsToday.com 
  to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home