The Catalina Foothills

a quick peek at home sales so far this year

The following data is for all single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson Arizona during the first 4 weeks of this year and last year. However, keep in mind that most, if not all, of the sales are the result of deals that were made in November/December of the previous year, that is, 2017 and 2016.

2018
39 homes sold
$525,000 median sold price
sold in 28 median days on market
Lowest priced sale – $195,000
Highest – $2,200,000

vs.

2017
52 homes sold
$437,500 median sold price
sold in 69 median days on market
Lowest priced sale – $206,600
Highest - $1,100,000

So far,
- home sales this year are down 25% from last year
- median sold prices are up 20% over last year
- homes sold 59% faster this year than last year

And it’s just 4 weeks so we’ll see where things go from here; we will continue to track sales as the year progresses. Your questions, suggestions and comments are most welcome. Just click the Comments tab at the bottom of this post. 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the last 2 weeks, 1/15 –1/28/2018

From Monday January 15th thru Sunday January 28th  42 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link will expire on 2/28/18)

26 are priced from $244,900 to $550,000
13  from $615,000 to $950,000
3 from $1,049,000 to $2,399,000

A few comments on a few contracts;
A foreclosure with 4 acres on Sabino Canyon Rd listed for $245,000 went to contract in 36 days. Prior to this current listing it had been on and off the market from 2008, when it was listed for $1,200,000 (seriously,$1.2mil), until 2013 when it left the market listed at $324,500. During that time it was listed for $950,000, $900,000, $850,000, $820,000, $749,000 $450,000 and so on. But no one went for it until the bank came along and priced it to sell. It doesn’t always happen that way. Occasionally, when a property is listed way high and the price is reduced and reduced again it can be tempting to think that because of the drastic price cuts that the property is now a really good deal. And it may be, but often it’s not. It’s just a drastically overpriced property that has had a few big price cuts but still has a way to go. 

The slow rise in Catalina Foothills home prices is vividly illustrated by a home in Shadow Hills, one of the most popular subdivisions in the foothills. It sold for $350,000 in 2009 and one year ago it was listed for sale again, this time for $429,900. But no takers and after a few price cuts it got down to $365,000, and finally went to contract listed at $365,000. Essentially its 2009 price.

On the other hand; a luxury home in Skyline CC that had been on and off the market for about 6 years before it sold in 2016 for $2,100,000, was listed this January for $2,399,000 and went to contract in 14 days.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the 1st 2 weeks of 2018, 1/1–1/14/2018

From Monday January 1st thru Sunday January 14th  34 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 2/18/18)

23 were priced from $269,900 to $599,000
10 from $649,000 to $899,000
1 at $1,099,000

34 contracts during the 1st 2 weeks is a pretty good start to the new year. Though, not great, during the 1st 2 weeks of 2017 there were 41 contracts.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

sold prices, from peak to trough to now

I've mentioned previously that median sold prices in the Catalina Foothills had dropped 31% from their 2006 peak to their bottom in 2012, and that since then prices have inched up just 14%, resulting in a very weak price recovery.  But a big chunk of that 14% increase was due to prices rising 6.6% last year alone, in 2017.

And that is accurate, but it’s an overall figure, for all homes sold throughout the foothills. And as I’ve mentioned before, ‘…prices across the foothills do not march in lockstep. Some areas, price ranges and even individual homes, perform better or worse than others’.

So here’s a look at how much better or worse individual subdivisions performed during the peak year 2006 to the bottom in 2012 and then in 2017. The following figures are median sold prices for all single family homes sold in each subdivision during the full year shown.

Under the sold price is the % change from 2006 to 2012 and from 2012 to 2017.     
Click any of the highlighted subdivision names to see all the homes currently for sale.
** indicates just one home sold

Area	2006	2012	2017
All Foothills Sales	$570,000	$390,000 -31%	$445,000 +14%
Shadow Hills	$633,750	$425,000 -33%	$518,500 +22%
Pima Cyn	$1,766,500	$1,082,500 -39%	$1,105,000 +2%
Sin Vacas	$915,000	$625,000 -32%	$642,500 +3%
Catalina Fthls 1-9	$677,500	$530,000 -22%	$557,000 +5%
Catalina Fthls 10	$1,200,000	$992,500 -17%	$1,065,300 +7%
La Paloma Est	$2,475,000	$1,065,000 -57%	$1,078,750 +1%
La Paloma (not Estates)	$625,000	$472,500 -24%	$475,000 +a smidge
Cobblestone	no sales	$1,004,965**	$867,000 -14%
Canyons	no sales	$2,100,000	$1,789,348 -15%
Hacienda del Sol	$1,200,000	$767,500 -36%	no sales
Foothills ll	$1,062,000	$979,750 -8%	$1,257,500 +28%
Pinnacle Ridge	$952,500	$651,000 -32%	$775,000 +19%
Skyline CC	$1,000,000	$641,000 -36%	$612,000 -4%
Skyline Bel Air	$597,250	$345,500 -42%	$422,000 +22%
Alta Vista	$1,050,000	$845,000 -19%	$825,000 -2%
Cimarron	$722,500	$435,000 -40%	$604,000 +39%
Flecha Caida	$528,500	$343,000 -39%	$424,500 +24%
Fairfield	$560,000	$360,000 -35%	$430,000 +19%
Villages of Ventana	$485,000	$341,500 -19%	$380,000 +11%
Ventana Golf Villas	$619,900	$340,000 -45%	$495,000 +46%
Ventana Lake, Cyn Est, Whalebck	$1,150,000	$1,207,500 +5%	$775,000 -36%
Ventana Cyn Mountain Est	$2,212,500	$1,700,000** -23%	No sales
Sabino Mtn	$839,250	$319,950 -62%	$366,250 +14%

Nope, prices sure didn't march in lockstep, they’re all over the lot, both in how far they fell and how much they’ve recovered. Though there is some similarity in the subdivisions that are showing a stronger recovery. Mostly, they are moderately priced, long time favorites such as Shadow Hills, Fairfield, Pinnacle Ridge, Flecha Caida, Skyline Bel Air and Cimarron. Communities that are home to families and people who live and work in Tucson year round. And who therefore need to buy a home to have a place to live, rather than those communities that cater to a large number of 2nd home & retirement home buyers who are making a discretionary purchase, one that is usually not a must have purchase and can therefore be delayed and delayed indefinitely. There my be other reasons for the disparity, but that's my theory.

Nevertheless, this has been a painfully slow recovery, it's six years since prices hit bottom and we're still well below where they were in 2006. 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

2017 Catalina Foothills Home Sales

Home sales under $1,000,000 had another very good year and sales above $1,000,000 had another so-so year. No big surprises there, though I did expect the $1.0mil+ market to eek out a few more sales.

The numbers:
A grand total of 897 single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills in 2017.

That is 8.2% more homes sold than in 2016 and a great deal more than every year since 2006.They sold quickly too, at a median of 39 days on market, 38% quicker than it took in 2016. And 2017 median sold prices are 6.6% higher than they were in 2016.

Broken down into two price ranges, homes sold up to $999,999 and those sold for $1,000,000 & UP, it looks like this;

First up, the number of homes sold up to $999k each year from 2004 thru 2017. Clearly, a market with impressive gains that has grown stronger year by year.

 

Next up, the number of homes sold at $1,000,000 & UP each year since 2004.
Well, the good news is, with 53 homes sold in 2016 & in 2017  (yes, 53 sold each year) sales for the last 2 years are higher than they’ve been since 2009. But not by much. And with sales still 57% below where they were in 2006, it is, frankly, a rather pathetic recovery for the upper-end market.

 

And, median sold prices.
2017 Median sold prices are UP an impressive 6.6% over 2016. However, since bottoming out in 2012 median sold prices are up just 14% since then – and 6.6% of that gain is thanks to 2017’s impressive numbers. Bottom line, other than 2017, sold prices have risen at a snails pace, though, perhaps and hopefully, that is finally changing. We’ll see.

Happy New Year!
see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home