70 homes have sold since Jan 1 (from 1/1 – 2/15) and, incredibly enough, the median sold price for those 70 homes is $527,000.
And that is huge, because $527,000 is an 18% jump from 2017’s median sold price of $445,000.
And, oddly enough, $4445,000 was also the median sold price for the 83 homes sold during the same 1/1 – 2/15 period in 2017.
So thinking I was on to something I looked at 2016 and the 2016 median sold price was $417,250 for the whole year. And it was $416,000 during the same 1/1 – 2/15 period.
Seeing two years where median sold prices for the entire year were, it appeared, being predicted by sold prices during the first 6 weeks made me wonder if I’d stumbled onto a fascinating new way to predict where the market is headed.
Wow!, was I onto something or what. Turns out, or what.
I checked 2013, 2014 and 2015. And my fascinating theory quickly fell apart. In each of those years the median sold price during the first 6 weeks of the year was not the same or even close to where it ended up for the entire year.
However, in every year the median sold price for the entire year was higher than it was during the first 6 weeks.
If that holds true this year, and I’m not saying it will, 2018 could experience the largest ever increase in home prices.
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