The Catalina Foothills

real estate 2022 / hopes, dreams, expectations

Following are a few articles from Bloomberg and FORTUNE addressing the big question, what to expect from the 2022 residential real estate market. 

Dwindling inventory

From Bloomberg Wealth
Available Homes Shrink More Than 30% in Hottest Housing Market
It would take less than a week to sell all the inventory in Seattle, and about 9 days for San Jose and Denver at current prices, according to Redfin.

By Allison McNeely

January 18, 2022, 10:35 AM MST

 

The time it would take to sell all available homes in some of the hottest U.S. housing markets continued to shrink in December as active listings fell. 

Seattle had the fewest months of supply, with San Jose and Denver close behind. Active listings in those markets fell by more than 30% in December compared to the previous month, according to data from Redfin Corp. It would take less than a week to sell all the inventory in Seattle, and about 9 days for San Jose and Denver at current prices.
Continue Reading Here

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From Me:

A comment about the 30% figure - there's a seasonal effect that comes into play in December ((hello Holidays, jingle jingle) that causes some would-be sellers to not list their homes in December + the surging Omicron virus may have given some sellers cause to pause. 30% drop, sure, but due to what?

 

In the foothills our current months of inventory varies from -1 to 1.5 months for homes priced up to $1,999,999 and jumps to 9 months for those priced $2M & UP.

In the foothills our inventory is way down;
January 2018  / 308 homes for sale
January 2019  / 310 
January 2020 /  228 
January 2021 /  82 
January 2022 /  70 
In 2021 the inventory bounced around from the mid 60's up to the mid 80's for most of the year. 

Check out the Catalina Foothills Market Snapshot for the number of homes for sale, in contract and sold + months of inventory broken down into 8 price ranges

 

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 Prices still rising 

From Bloomberg Wealth

A Typical U.S. Home Is Now Valued at $320,662 — 20% More Than a Year Ago

Low inventory and unrelenting demand are continuing to fuel price growth in the American real estate market. 

By Claire Ballentine

January 21, 2022, 9:48 AM MST

Mortgage rates are creeping higher, yet the U.S. real estate market is still breaking records. 

Home values on average jumped almost 20% in the past year, the most ever, according to a new report from Zillow. A typical house is now worth $320,662 — an increase of more than $50,000 from December 2020. 

After two years of surging prices for homes across the country, anxious buyers had hoped 2022 would bring some relief, as policy makers plan interest rates hikes that could cool down the market. That’s yet to happen though, with strong demand from millennials and a shortage of available homes still propping up prices. Mortgage rates just reached their highest level since the pandemic began, but at 3.56% are still historically low.
Continue Reading Here

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From Me;
The Catalina Foothills median sold price for Q4 2021 was $700,000, up 21.7% over Q4 2020 at $575,000. 

And, for what it's worth, the median sold price so far this January is $736,250, $710,000 (updated 2/5/22)
More sales will close on Monday the 31st and others that have already closed but have not yet been turned in to the MLS will likely bring that figure up or down.

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will it ever get back to normal

From FORTUNE
Homebuyers: Buckle up for another brutal spring housing market

BY LANCE LAMBERT

January 18, 2022 4:31 AM MST

It's usually around this time of year, with the holiday season firmly in the rearview mirror, that homebuyers and sellers alike begin to make their way back into the market. That will continue to pick up each week until March arrives. At that point, the industry's busy season—known as the spring real estate market—will be off to the races.

But this year there is more unease than excitement coming from the home shopper side of the equation. For one thing, last year's spring housing market, which was arguably the fiercest in history, is still seared into the collective memories of unsuccessful 2021 home shoppers. To understand how far the deck was stacked against buyers last year, just look at the data. The number of homes for sale last spring hit the lowest level in more than 40 years. Bidding wars hit an all-time high—with 72% of homes getting multiple offers in April 2021. And that frenzy saw home appreciation climb to the highest level in tabulated history.

That raises a question: Should homebuyers expect to find a spring housing market in 2022 that is friendlier when compared with 2021? After all, the rate of home price growth over the past year—up 19.1% between October 2020 and October 2021—just can't be sustained forever.
Continue Reading Here

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From Me

I see no signs of a more normal market coming anytime soon. There's been no meaningful increase in listings, nothing that comes even close to beginning to satisfy the demand. Meanwhile buyers have gotten into the swing of things and are participating in the silent auctions that have become more common these days. And when 8, 10 or 12 buyers bid on a property it's a pretty sure bet that that property is going to sell for over list price and that the 7 or 8 buyers that didn't get it this time are probably going to up their game the next time they make an offer.                            And up-up go prices. 

And there's also no way to build our way out of the lack of homes for sale. 
Why? Because there are very few lots available (33 currently for sale from $19,500 to $1,450,00 scattered all across the foothills) and no big chunk of land to build a sizable number of homes, 40, 100 or more homes, in one spot. The foothills is pretty much built out.
Recently a few builders that years ago had built 40 or 50 or more homes on what large tracts of land remained in the foothills have acquired a lot here or a few lots there to build homes. But that's not nearly enough to make even dent in the demand. Currently there are 13 new homes listed for sale from $693,900 to $4,595,000 that are not yet built and that may not be built until a buyer comes along who is willing to wait a long time for the finished product. 

That's it.
Thank you for stopping by, I look forward to your comments, questions and suggestions. 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 1/17 - 1/23/2022

From Monday January 17 thru Sunday January 23,  12 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ 
(85718 / 85750)  (link expires 3/1/22)

3 were priced from $525,000 to $599,000
6 from $625,000 to $995,000
3 from $1,150,000 to $2,650,000

a pretty slow week, hmmm ?, could it be, little or nothing for buyers to choose from, meanwhile, the 12 that did go to contract went fast, in 5 median DOM

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

more buyers, fewer listings = more competition

With winter visitor/snowbird season in full bloom it's no surprise the real estate market in the Catalina Foothills is now even more busy, more competitive and more frustrating for buyers than it was last year. And, to put it politely, last years market was very challenging.

In the last few weeks there have been a constant stream of buyers at showings that I've attended. Constant. And the number of offers being tossed at anything that's halfway decent combined with a dearth of new listings is making it very difficult to buy a home. 

And the 22% increase in median sold prices for the 960 homes that sold last year does not appear to be putting even a dent in buyers enthusiasm to further bid up the price of homes. Also we're seeing more new listings that are structured to create a silent auction. They contain specific information as to when the seller will review and respond to offers. Yes, increasingly it is now assumed that the listing will receive multiple offers.

For instance; a new listing appears in the MLS on Thursday March 10th with the following information;
Please submit your offer by Sunday March 13 and allow adequate time for the Seller to review and respond to offers on Monday March 14.  

They're setting up the conditions for a silent auction and inviting a bidding war. And because there are more buyers than there are homes for sale it is becoming more commonplace to do so. And since there are more buyers out there with cash, more sellers are looking only at CASH offers. They don't want to and don't have to deal with the contingencies and uncertainties of an offer that comes with a mortgage.

In those circumstances it boils down to making the best offer you are willing to make for that home, period. Because it is likely you will get just one shot at it. And if your offer isn't the best offer the house is going to go to someone else. And if you don't get it, with so few homes for sale, how long will it be before you find another home that you like as much. And if and when you do find another one, is it going to be less $$ or more, than this one. Harsh, grim, yep kinda, but that's the market. 

Checkout the Market Snapshot for the latest numbers on what's for sale, in contract and sold 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

in contract last week, 1/10 - 1/16/2022

From Monday January 10th thru Sunday January 16th,  19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ 
(85718 / 85750)  (link expires 2/20/22)

5 were listed from $455,000 to $599,000
9 from $625,000 to $975,000
5 from $1,029,000 to $2,499,000

 all 19  went to contract in 9 median DOM - while 8 of them went in 3 days or less

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

2021 was an Extraordinary Year for Catalina Foothills Upper-End Home Sales

182 homes sold from $1,000,000 to $4,063,564 - way more sold than in any other year, ever.
Where did most of them sell
the following were the top 11* subdivisions + unsubdivided sales for high-end sales in 2021
(*based on # of homes sold)
Click any subdivision name to see all the homes that are currently for sale = Active + Active Contingent = 1st stage of in-contract. 
if you get 0 results it is because there is nothing for sale at this time. 

Catalina Foothills Estates (1 - 9)
16 sold $1,047,098 to $2,610,000
$1,422,500 MSP / 7 DOM / @  $334/sf 

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
12 sold $1,100,000 to $1,695,000
$1,399,520 MSP / 12 DOM / @ 280/sf

La Paloma (including Ridge, Estates)
9 sold $1,200,000 to $2,500,000
$1,294,300 MSP / 6 DOM / @ $304/sf

Pima Canyon
25 sold $1,020,000 to $3,175,000
$1,595,000 MSP / 8 DOM / $383/sf

Ventana Canyon (including CC, Estates, Mountain Est, Whaleback)
11 sold $1,000,000 to $4,063,564
$1,371,000 MSP / 24 DOM / $270/sf

Skyline CC
10 sold $1,000,000 to $3,337,500
$1,525,500 MSP / 32 DOM / $348/sf

Flecha Caida
5 sold $1,104,700 to $1,400,000
MSP  $1,225,000 / 45 DOM / @ $288/sf

Alta Vista 
6 sold $1,050,000 to $1,400,000
MSP  $1,087,500 / 10 DOM / $282/sf

Sabino Mountain
4 sold $1,280,000 to $1,590,000
MSP  $1,335,000 / 2 DOM / $347/sf

Canyons (The)
5 sold $2,600,000 to $3,795,000
MSP  $3,200,000 / 28 DOM / @ $470/sf

Finisterra
5 sold $1,325,000 to $2,950,000
MSP  $1,895,000 / 137 DOM / @ $335/sf

last but not least,
Unsubdivided 
foothills homes that are not located in a subdivision, no ccr's, no hoa, no hoa meetings, fees. Unsubdivided homes are located in different areas throughout the foothills. 
Unsubdivided    (link will expire 2/17/22)
13 sold $1,025,000 to $3,250,000
MSP  $1,535,000 / 17 DOM / @ $399/sf

That should be 121 of the 182 homes sold at $1,000,000+ last year, the remaining 61 are located here and there in a variety of subdivisions throughout the foothills.

To sum it up,
182 sold $1,000,000 to $4,063,564
MSP  $1,347,400 / 10 DOM / $320/sf

Wow!

Best year for upper-end sales before 2021?,  long time ago, 2006

Have a look, this first chart is 2005 to 2020

and this one is 2015 thru 2021, POW out of the park

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider, Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
(520) 271-4164
johnschneiders@gmail.com

see thefoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills home

what’ll it be, 85718 or 85750

THIS IS A RE-POST OF A BLOG POST I WROTE IN 2015, 
this new version is updated here and there, the graphs and the numbers, the # of homes for sale, in contract, sold etc, 

The Catalina Foothills is divided into two zip codes, 85718 and 85750, with Craycroft Rd the east/west dividing line between the two. 

Most of the buyers I meet have a preference for one or the other or they quickly develop a preference as they investigate the two areas.  And aside from the homes that are for sale in each zip their preference is often based on the look, feel, geographic, topographic, tempo and convenience features of the two areas - which are fairly distinct.

85718 is more developed, with more plazas, restaurants, bars, boutiques, shopping and, some would say, more pizzazz.  718 is also closer to downtown Tucson, to Banner Medical Center and to the University of Arizona.  And if you’re looking for an older adobe home or a Joesler, you are, with some exceptions, talking about 718. 718 is where John Murphey and Josias Joesler first established the Catalina Foothills Estates, the very first development in the Catalina Foothills in the 1930’s. 85750 came much later. And though not to everyone’s taste, 718 also has many more gated communities than 750.

But 85750 has its charms as well. With its main shopping, restaurant and retail plaza at one location, at Kolb & Sunrise, it’s less developed, less busy with fewer vehicles coming and going and has a calmer, more tranquil atmosphere than 718. For recreation and rejuvenation 750  is home to the hard to beat combination of  Sabino Canyon, Canyon Ranch and Ventana Canyon Golf & Racquet Club.

And beyond that there are also price differences between the two zips, with more higher priced homes in 85718. And, in general, you probably get a bit more home  for your money in 750. Though, with the current crazy market, who knows. 

Below on the left side is 85718 with a grand total of 42 single family homes for sale – bordered on the north by the Coronado National Forest, Craycroft Rd on the east - River Rd on the south and 1st Ave on the west.

And on the right is 85750 with an equally meager selection of 38 single family homes for sale –  bordered on the north by the Coronado National Forest then Sabino Canyon and Sabino Creek on the east, River Rd on the south and Craycroft Rd on the west.

When this post originally appeared in 2015 there were 206 homes listed for sale in 718 and 192 in 750... those were the days when you could find a home that you liked and sleep on it and it would still be there in the morning. Now, not so much.

For you number crunchers, 85718 v. 85750 by the numbers.
The number of homes for sale, in contract and the number sold in the last 6 months, along with median list and sold prices and DOM.

85718
42 homes for sale
$1,237,500 - Median List Price

44 homes in contract
$774,500 - Median List Price

239 homes sold in the last 6 months
$750,000 - Median Sold Price
8 - DOM  

85750
38 homes for sale
$1,299,000 - Median List Price

38 homes in contract
$699,500 - Median List Price

194 sold in last 6 months
$635,000 - Median Sold Price
5 - DOM

Why are the median list price numbers so much higher than median sold prices.

There are more homes listed for sale at $1Mil+ (44 ) than there are listed for up to $999k (35), which puts the median list price up in the $1Mil+ range.
In terms of sales though, homes listed for up to $999k sell many more (53 in the last 30 days) than sell at $1Mil+ (20 in last 30 days), which puts the median sold price at well under $1Mil. 

Check out the Market Snapshot for a closer look at the number of listings, contracts and sales by price range.

85718 & 85750, they’re both in the Catalina Foothills but the look, feel and tempo of each are  different. If you’re new to town be sure to check out both areas.

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider, Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
(520) 271-4164
johnschneiders@gmail.com

see thefoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills home

 

in contract the 1st week of 2022, 1/3 - 1/9/2022

From Monday January 3rd thru Sunday January 9th,  19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ 
(85718 / 85750)  (link expires 2/10/2022)

5 were listed from $525,000 to $595,000
9 from $600,000 to $879,000
5 from $1,089,000 to $1,850,000

and, as has been the case for the last 12 months or so, the 19 homes went to contract in a flash, in 5 MDOM (median days on market)

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

a rip roaring start to the New Year

9 new listings in last 3 days and 5 of them, priced from $799,000 to $1,300,000, are already in contract - and 4 of the 5 went to contract on the same day they were listed. 

Take care, stay well. 

John Schneider, Realtor®
Catalina Foothills Homes
(520) 271-4164
johnschneiders@gmail.com

see thefoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills home

Catalina Foothills Home Sales Data 2015 thru 2021

Hello and welcome

If you've been following my monthly sales reports from previous months, this one is pretty much the same. A continuation of the same hectic, low-supply / high-demand, fast moving market we've seen for all of 2021. The only difference here is that this report includes the sales data for the full years from 2015 thru 2021. 

The following charts track the single family home market in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ and include the number of homes sold, median sold prices (MSP) and days on market (DOM) for each year from 2015 thru 2021.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

First up is a chart showing the number of homes sold for up to $999,999, which comprises about 80% of all the homes sold in the Catalina Foothills. It's a market that had been fairly stable and slowly improving in recent years, that is, until everything changed in Feb-March of 2020.
The  drop in sales of homes sold for under $1Mil is due to the all-time low supply of homes for sale, a predicament that began in Feb-March 2020 and has continued and worsened since then. The drop in sales in 2021 was not due to lack of motivated buyers. No. There were and still are plenty of buyers. There are not nearly enough homes for sale to satisfy those buyers.

On the other hand sales at $1,000,000 & UP are Way UP. Huh?  How? Why? After peaking in 2006 at 126 homes sold, followed by the devastating market crash of Sept. 2008, by 2009 $Mil+ sales had dropped 68%, to 40 homes sold that year. Upper-end sales continued to bounce along the bottom - averaging about 46 homes sold/year from 2009 to 2019 - until 2020 when things perked up in the 2nd half of the year with 86 sold. As you might imagine, there were a lot of high-end homes unsold and left over from those stagnant years. And many of those homes, and others that recognized the opportunity, came back on the market in time for 2021 when the market really took off with a record shattering 182 homes sold from $1,000,000 up to $4,063,564. 

Next up, median sold prices for all homes sold. Prices are also Way UP. They're up 22.5% over 2020 and up 40% over 2019

Some of that price jump is due to the big increase in the number of homes sold for $1,000,000 & UP in 2021.
If we include only homes sold for up to $999,999 the 2021 price increase is 16% over 2020 and 32.8% over 2019. 

Next, DOM.. Homes sold faster, by a wide margin, in 2021 than in any other year

at the risk of beating it to death ...
The supply of homes is both very skimpy and also lopsided. 959 total homes sold in 2021
As I noted up above, home sales up to $999,999 comprise about 80% of the market - 777 sold in 2021
while home sales at $1Mil and Up comprise about 20% of the market - 182 sold in 2021

yet, of the overall skimpy supply, just 77 homes for sale at all prices
33 of them (43%) are listed for up to $999,999
while 44 of them (57%) are listed at $1Mil and UP

Which makes for a very tight market across the board, but even more so at under $1Mil.

Check out the Market Snapshot for a more detailed look at current supply and demand

Contact me if you have a question or would like my help navigating the market.  Thanks for stopping by.

Take care, stay well. 

John Schneider, Realtor®
Catalina Foothills Homes
(520) 271-4164
johnschneiders@gmail.com

Tierra Antigua Realty, Foothills Office
1650 E. River Rd
Tucson, AZ 85718

see thefoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills home