The Catalina Foothills

a new low

there are 65 single family homes for sale in the foothills today

End of February, beginning of March is (used to be) the height of the season, with more activity, more showings and more contracts than at other times of the year. But with just 65 homes for sale that is not likely this Feb/March

Feb/March 2019 there were 318 for sale

Feb/March 2020 (on the cusp of covid) there were 232 for sale

Feb/March 2021 there were 72 for sale, and so it goes 

Today there are 65 for sale, see them here
(link expires 3/30/2022)

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

 

Zillow says ...

The spring 2022 housing market will absolutely crush buyers — Zillow says home prices to spike 22%

 Fortune.com

BY 

LANCE LAMBERT
February 17, 2022 3:20 AM MST

 
Heading into 2022, there was a wide consensus among real estate firms that the annual rate of home price growth—which peaked at 20% in August 2021—would steadily decelerate this year as some normalcy began to return to a housing market that had boomed during much of the pandemic. But now some experts aren't so sure.

Back in December, Zillow forecast that the 12-month rate of home price growth would decelerate to 11% by the end of the year. Then in January, Zillow revised that figure—saying that we would finish 2022 up 16.4%. On Wednesday, Zillow once again shifted its forecast upward: It now expects the year-over-year rate of home price growth to peak at 21.6% in May and to close the year at 17.3%. Simply put: Instead of decelerating, Zillow sees the 2022 spring housing market getting even hotter.

What's going on? Instead of inventory levels beginning to normalize this year, the situation is getting worse. In January 2021, the number of homes for sale was 26% below the level hit in January 2020. Last month we were 42% below January 2020. That lack of inventory means buyers will once again be forced to bid up prices if they hope to land a home.  
Continue Reading the Article

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Speaking only for the Catalina Foothills single family home market the low inventory and high demand that began in the 2nd half of 2020 has not eased or improved at all this year. And I don't see any signs that it will improve anytime soon. With continuing low inventory, high demand and buyers who are not shying away from multiple offer situations I don't see how prices have anywhere to go but up. How far up I have no idea but the experts do. Take your pick, Zillow, Core Logic, Fannie Mae and others are predicting increases ranging from +3.5% to +22%. 

And many headlines and talking heads are predicting that rising mortgage rates will dampen the market - maybe a tiny bit but, in this market in the Catalina Foothills, not much, not a sea change. For me the last sentence in the article nails the negligible effect of rising rates ; There are so many sidelined homebuyers that even if some are priced out by rates, there will be others waiting to replace them. 

We'll soon see.

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Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

in contract the last 2 weeks, 2/7 - 2/20/2022

From Monday Feb 7 thru Sunday Feb 20 - 36 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ   (85718 / 85750)  (link expires 3/24/2022)

4 were listed from $479,000 to $579,500
21 from $615,000 to $998,000
11 from $1,190,000 to $1,999,999

they went to contract very quickly, in just 5 DOM, which I'm guessing may have something to do with why 5 other homes that went to contract fell thru
Yes, there were 41 in contract but 5 have fallen thru and, as I mentioned last week, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some them fell thru due to buyer remorse - buyers having to make offers too quickly and perhaps for more $$ than they thought they should, in order to be the winning bidder.. 

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 1/31 - 2/6/2022

From Monday January 31, thru Sunday February 6, just 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ 
(85718 / 85750)  (link expires 3/15/2022)

1 was priced at $595,000
6 from $650,000 to $975,000
4 from $1,100,000 to $1,900,000

That's it, and It is the lowest number of weekly contracts that I can recall. Also, there were 15 in contract but 4 of them fell thru - 4 out of 15 is a high percentage (26%) of deals falling thru in one week. Don't know why they fell thru but I wouldn't rule out buyer remorse, due to having to make their offer super quickly and perhaps for more $$ than they reasonably thought they should, in order to be the winning bidder.. 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

January home sales, now and then

As we start the new year here's a snapshot of January single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills;
It's pretty much the same pattern as last year, of rising prices, quicker sales, an increasing percentage of cash sales and a dwindling number of homes for sale, resulting in fewer sales this January. 

Year	# Homes Sold	# Sold for Cash	Median Sold Price	Days on Market	# Homes for Sale
2022	64	23	$710,000	12	70
2021	86	22	$638,000	17	82
2020	55	12	$577,000	30	228
2019	50	15	$508,000	62	310

 

 

 

 

 

To add some perspective to those numbers, here's a piece from MarketWatch:
These 2 numbers sum up why the housing market won't get back to normal for a long time.

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 1/24 - 1/30/2022

From Monday January 24, thru Sunday January 30,  20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ 
(85718 / 85750)  (link expires 3/6/2022)

 5 were listed from $505,000 to $599,000
10 from $625,000 to $925,000
 5 from $1,395,000 to $4,900,000

Of this group of 20 homes, 8 of them were listed and structured with the expectation that they would receive multiple offers - the listings contain language in the Agent Only section of the listing providing the date (usually 2 - 4 days from when it first appears in the MLS) when offers need to be submitted by and when the seller will respond to those offers. Thereby allowing a few days for multiple buyers to view the property and multiple buyers to submit offers, setting up a competitive silent auction scenario. A what are you willing to pay for this home, put your best foot forward.  

This is becoming more common, and why not, there are more buyers than there are desirable homes for sale, is there a better, more fair way to do it. And, an unintended consequence, since it delays by a few days the acceptance of the winning offer it also increases the number of days on market (DOM) that will be showing up in the data. 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home