The Catalina Foothills

in contract the last 2 weeks, 11/14 - 11/27/2022

From Monday November 14 thru Sunday November 27 -  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - that's 85718/85750 (link expires 12/29/2022)

 6  were listed from $350,000 to $585,000
13 from $600,000 to $999,000
 6  from $1,000,000 to $2,250,000

40 MDOM for the 25 contracts

last year at this time, when the market was getting hotter by the day, 34 homes went to contract 
v. now, with 25 contracts covering a wide range of prices at a time with much weaker economic environment, looks to me like a pretty good showing that may be a vote of confidence from buyers. We'll soon see.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Fortune reports on the latest from CoreLogic research on where home prices are headed

This is the 3rd in a series of articles I've posted from Fortune reporting on CoreLogics outlook on where home prices are headed. 
In previous articles, which started in March, CoreLogic was not overly concerned about where home prices were headed as they identified just 13 markets, out of 385, that had a high to very high risk of declining prices. In May that number jumped to 70 markets and now in November, with 354 markets in high or very high risk territory, it's a whole new ballgame.
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Here's Fortune's summation of CoreLogic's November findings 

The November assessment finds 354 markets have a greater than 50% chance of notching a negative year-over-year reading (i.e. markets in either the "high" or "very high" risk groups) over the next 12 months. That's up from 335 markets in October that had a greater than 50% chance of falling home prices. In August, there were 125 markets at risk. In July, there were 98 markets at risk. In June, 45 markets were at risk. And in May, just 26 markets (see chart above) fell into those "high" or "very high" risk camps.

Read all about it
Where are home prices are headed in 2023—this map shows CoreLogic’s revised outlook for 392 housing markets

BYLANCE LAMBERT

November 22, 2022 at 2:56 AM MST

 

When a buttoned-up Fed economist says the U.S. housing market has entered into a “difficult [housing] correction”, it’d be wise to believe them. When it comes from the lips of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it’s more of a warning. 

Powell is right: Not only does housing activity continue to plummet, but U.S. home prices are falling for the first-time since 2012.

Unlike the 2000s housing correction, which saw U.S. home prices fall 27% between 2006 and 2012, this ongoing housing correction isn’t underpinned by bad loans nor by a supply glut. Instead, this correction is driven by what Fortune calls “pressurized affordability.” The Pandemic Housing Boom‘s 43% run-up in U.S. home prices combined with spiking mortgage rates has simply pushed affordability beyond what many borrowers can stomach.

The only levers available to depressurize affordability are for either mortgage rates or home prices to fall. In recent months, we’ve seen the latter.

Continue Reading All About it

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Here in the Catalina Foothills sold  prices are up or down depending on the time period being compared
MSP = Median Sold Prices 

MSP's this year
Feb/Mar 2022 - $765,000
Apr/May 2022 - $780,000 +2%
Jun/Jul 2022 -   $825,000 +5.76%
Aug/Sep 2022 - $765,000 -7.27%
Oct/Nov 2022 -  $780,000 +1.96%

Comparing median sold prices from their high point in Jun/Jul  to now, Oct/Nov, shows a -5.4% price drop.
While CoreLogic notes the following regarding price drops from their high point.

Nationally, home prices are down 1.3% from their 2022 peak. At least that’s according to the lagged Case-Shiller reading through August. However, markets like Austin and Reno are down 10.2% and 8.4%, respectively, while markets like Des Moines and Baltimore remain at their all-time highs. (Here’s the shift in the nation’s 400 biggest markets.)

 
Bimonthly prices this year V. last year

Feb/Mar 2021 - $661,000
Feb/Mar 2022 - $765,000 +15.7%

Apr/May 2021 - $700,000
Apr/May 2022 - $780,000 +11.4%

Jun/Jul 2021 -  $715,000
Jun/Jul 2022 -  $825,000 +15%

Aug/Sept 2021 - $680,500
Aug/Sept 2022 - $765,000 +12+%

Oct/Nov 2021 - $695,000
Oct/Nov 2022 - $780,000 +12+%

While sold prices have slid a bit in recent months, when compared to last year sold prices are solidly UP this year over last year. they're UP somewhere between 11% - 15% over last year.

Where we go from here is unknown. And I agree with the statements expressed in the article;
The Pandemic Housing Boom‘s 43% run-up in U.S. home prices combined with spiking mortgage rates has simply pushed affordability beyond what many borrowers can stomach.

and there are just two options, either home prices or mortgage rates must fall. What else is there? 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 11/7 - 11/13/2022

From Monday November 7 thru Sunday November 13 - 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/19/2022)

5 were listed from $400,000 to $595,000
4 from $750,000 to $969,000
4 from $1,200,000 to $2,495,000

and though they took a little longer,
36 median DOM v. 19 DOM the week before last,
homes in all price ranges found a buyer last week

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Recent List & Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / November 2022

The following are the Listed and Sold Prices of the 22 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from November 1 - November 15, 2022.

I hope that keeping up with Listed/Sold posts and other market info posted to this blog helps you get a sense of where the Foothills market is currently and perhaps shines a bit of light on where it may be going.

Caveat #1, The Listed/Sold reports are a snapshot of recent sales during a short 15 day time period and are just a piece of the puzzle that, on their own, are not intended for anyone to bank on as to where the market is currently or where it may be going.
Caveat #2, while the sales figures shown are for homes sold in the last 15 days the contracts for those sales were signed on the dotted line approx 30 to 60 days prior to when the sale closed. E.g., sales closing from 11/1 - 11/15 likely went to contract from around early September to mid October and therefore reflect the market as it was approx 30 to 60 days ago.
Green Sold prices identify the homes sold for over list. 

 

Listed	Sold
565,000	554,000
670,000	650,000
674,900	668,000
695,000	720,000
700,000	736,000
700,000	700,000
785,000	770,000
799,000	799,000
845,000	800,000
845,000	870,000
894,900	888,000
975,000	900,000
995,000	995,000
1,085,000	985,000
1,200,000	1,200,000
1,295,000	1,305,000
1,449,500	1,395,000
1,545,000	1,450,000
1,750,000	1,700,000
1,800,000	1,740,000
3,700,000	3,381,360.93

 

See the sold listings for the 22 homes sold  (link expires 12/16/2022)

  4 (18+%) sold for over list price (1 more than in October Report)
  4 (18+%) sold at list price
14 (63+%) sold for less than list price

Compared to the October Report - fewer homes sold at list price & way more sold for less than list.
+ a big jump in DOM, from 17 DOM in the October report to 35 DOM for this group.  However, with the Sold/Listed price ratio at 97.14%, prices are holding up pretty well. Speaking of which, BAM!! the median sold price for the 22 sold is a whopping $894,000, UP higher than any previous Listed/Sold report - but, caveat-caveat, it is just 22 sales in 15 days. 

Click to Octobers numbers, when 22 homes also sold in 15 days.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

From CNN Business; It’s a terrible time to buy a house. Here’s what to know if you have to do it anyway

By Anna Bahney, CNN Business

Published 7:01 AM EST, Sat November 12, 2022

There is no sugarcoating it: This is a terrible time to buy a home.

Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate loan are now hovering above 7%, more than 4 percentage points higher than a year ago. That has slashed a typical buyer’s purchasing power by 14%, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data company.

With fewer people able or interested in buying now, home sales have been falling. Just 16% of people say now is a good time to buy a home, a record low, according to a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae in October.

Still, that’s barely made a dent in home prices, which soared to new heights during the pandemic and are now just easing off of all-time highs.

Another thing tamping down sales is stubbornly low inventory of available homes for sale, said Jackie Lafferty, a real estate agent with Baird & Warner Real Estate in Chicago.

“It is something I’ve never seen a combination of, this lack of inventory and higher interest rates,” Lafferty said. “There is no motivation for people to move unless they have to.”

But whether people need to move because of a new job, a divorce, an addition to the family or they simply don’t want to give up after years of trying to buy a home, there are still buyers out there.

“Even if sales slow down, real estate doesn’t stop,” said Lafferty. “People need a place to live.”

For those who are pressing on, here are a few ways you can take some of the sting out of buying a home.

Continue reading article

which goes on to discuss, propose various mortgage strategies to help buyers navigate the high rates
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Many of the things noted in the article that are affecting the national real estate market - high interest rates, falling home sales, still high home prices and low inventory - are also playing a role in our Catalina Foothills market, with at least one big difference,

Toward the end the article notes that, according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors 97% of homebuyers over the past year needed to finance their home.

Whereas, in the Catalina Foothills, of the 671 homes sold so far this year, 43% (271 homes) were cash purchases. Which I believe has lessened and may continue to lessen the damaging effects of high mortgage rates on our market and should also tend to make a cash offer even more attractive than it has ever been.  Let's hope!

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 10/31 - 11/ 06/2022

From Monday October 31 thru Sunday November 6,  10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/09/2022)

3 were priced from $475,000 to $499,000
4 from $620,000 to $825,000
3 from $1,195,000 to $2,150,000

they went to contract in 19.5 median DOM

At normal times that would be a pretty weak-week for contracts but with circumstances as they are, high mortgage rates, high home prices, volatile stock market and few homes to choose from, I think it was a pretty good week.

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Markets go up, markets go down

And right now the Catalina Foothills single family home market is tilting down as evidenced by fewer sales, lower sold prices, more days on market before homes sell, and with fewer homes selling for list or over-list prices.  To me, for now, this appears to be a market that is correcting its course. Correcting its course from the unsustainable super-hot market that took off in January 2021 and burned bright and hot til several months ago when it began to cool.  Where it goes from here is anyone's guess.

2022 Monthly Sold Numbers

2022	# Homes Sold	Median Sold Price	DOM	Sold/List Price Ratio
October	44	$737,000	14	97.22%
September	52	$710,000	13	97.49%
August	51	$840,000	10	99%
July	52	$830,000	6	99.75%
June	65	$811,000	5	101.39%
May	66	$818,000	5	101.26%
April	77	$750,000	4	103.23%
March	88	$796,669	5	100%
February	53	$715,000	5	100%
January	66	$710,000	5	100%

 

Meanwhile October 2022 sold prices are appreciably higher and days on market numbers are still lower than any past October of pre-covid years.

	# Homes Sold	Median Sold Price	DOM	Sold/List Price Ratio
October 2022	44	$737,000	14	97.22%
October 2021	62	$685,000	7	99.4%
October 2020	99	$525,000	7	98.75%
October 2019	63	$500,000	22	95.76%
October 2018	61	$435,000	23	97.69%

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 10/24 - 10/30/2022

From Monday October 24 thru Sunday October 30,  14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/01/2022)

2 were priced at $389,900 & $549,900
5 from $674,900 to $799,000
7 from $1,050,000 to $1,750,000

the lower-end of the market continues to struggle under the weight of 7% mortgages while, somehow, the mid and particularly the upper-end continue to flourish.

44 homes went to contract in October
(link expires 12/01/2022)

4 were priced from $389,900 to $565,000 
21 from $670,000 to $995,000
19 from  $1,050,000 to $6,788,000

Thanks for stopping by,

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)