The Catalina Foothills

The housing market is in a winter freeze ...

says Realtor.com Sr. Economist George Ratiu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et5DJ_Gt8L0

Much of what George says is also true here in the Catalina Foothills market.

• high mortgage interest rates combined with high list prices, plus the highly inflated cost of everyday goods and services have priced many buyers out of the market. Yet sale prices are staying high due to the continuing shortage of homes for sale.  And the continuing shortage of homes for sale is exacerbated by would-be sellers not wanting to trade their current home and low rate mortgage, for a hard to find high priced home with a much higher rate mortgage. 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/19 - 12/25/2022

From Monday December 19 thru Sunday December 25, 7 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/27/2023)

1 was priced at $385,900
5 from $695,000 to $895,000
1 at $1,595,000

Ho Ho Ho! 7 sellers & 7 buyers had their Holiday dreams come true

Happy Holidays!

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/12 - 12/18/2022

From Monday December 12 thru Sunday December 18, 11single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/22/2023)

4 were priced $545,000 to $595,000
6 from $625,000 to $850,000
1 at $1,050,000

11 contracts, not bad, better than the week before

Happy Holidays to all

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Waiting for Home Prices to Drop? Bad Strategy

 Bloomberg

By Alexis Leondis

December 13, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST

With mortgage rates  retreating from their highest since 2002 and the US housing market cooling, some buyers are expecting to get a deal next year instead of having to contend with sky-high home prices. Unfortunately, that’s just wishful thinking.

Although most economists think rates have peaked — or close to it — the consensus is that rates will hover around 6.5% or 7% for 30-year fixed mortgages for the foreseeable future.

And on home prices, there’s no reason to think we’ll see big declines any time soon. I surveyed half a dozen economists to find out where home prices are headed in 2023. By and large, most are anticipating prices on average to stay within 5% of where they are now.

One of the most bearish scenarios foresees a 20% drop in prices in 2023. But even analysts who expect a drop of that magnitude think it would be spread out over several years.

That’s little consolation for those who had hoped a big decline in home prices could soften the blow of mortgage rates that have doubled over the last 10 months. Consider this: To keep mortgage payments at the historical share of household income (about 18%), home values would need to drop 39% from where they are currently, according to Zillow.

Continue reading on Bloomberg
may require a subscription

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As noted in yesterdays post - Foothills Q4 median sold prices are down 3.44% from their peak in Q2 of this year - not terrible, but we'll see where it goes from here. And a good time to see where it goes is right around the corner, the beginning of what has traditionally been our busiest season kicks off in January and runs into May.

And Jan - May is our busy season because 2 things occur- there are more buyers and more sellers in the market. More buyers arrive to buy homes while enjoying our wonderful winter/spring weather and, traditionally, more sellers list their homes for sale during that time because there are more buyers in the market. Supply & Demand.

But if there are too few homes for sale it won't be a very busy busy season. And even now, before the season has begun, there are not enough. And so far there are no signs that a large number of sellers are going to list their homes. And without a sizable increase in inventory there will be more competition for the too small supply of homes which I imagine will keep prices high and once again prove frustrating for buyers. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

heads up on Q4 prices & DOM

While there's still 2 weeks to go before Q4 wraps up the year there's nothing to say that we can't take a peek at where median sold prices and days on market are as we head to the finish line. 
The following Q4 results are based on single family home sales from 10/1/2022 - 12/15/2022

From their peak in Q2 median sold prices are down 3.44% in Q4

From their low in Q2 DOM are up 300% in Q4

The beginning of what has traditionally been our busiest season kicks off in January and runs into May. What with Covid we haven't had a normal winter/spring market since 2019, with an awful lot of ups/downs and changes since then, so it will be interesting and telling to see how things go in the, hopefully, more normal upcoming winter/spring market. Being the busiest time the Jan - May period often sets the tone of the market for the rest of the year and beyond.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/5 - 12/11/2022

From Monday December 5 thru Sunday December 11 / just 6 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/12/2023) 

1 listed at $525,000
5 from $649,000 to $999,500
6, that's it!

Wondering, is it the Holidays or the market or just one of those weeks that come along every now and then.

Last year at this time it was also the Holiday season and 31 single family homes went to contract in the 2 weeks from12/6 - 12/19 - that was 2 weeks instead of 1, but with 5 times as many contracts. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

More from Fortune on where home prices are headed

 

BY LANCE LAMBERT

November 29, 2022 at 5:19 PM MST

In June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that the overheated U.S. housing market—which saw U.S. home prices rise over 40% in just over two years—needed a “reset.” And higher mortgage rates, he said, would slowly bring “balance” back to the market.

“We saw [home] prices moving up very, very strongly for the last couple of years. So that changes now… I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together,” Powell said.

While Powell was unsure what the Fed’s housing “reset” would mean for home prices, Fortune speculated it meant prices would fall. It looks like we were right.

According to the latest Case-Shiller report published on Tuesday, U.S. home prices fell another 0.8% in September. That marks the third consecutive monthly home price decline since Powell’s June statement. Prior to 2022, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index hadn’t published a month-over-month decline since the housing crash bottomed out in 2012.

This latest Case-Shiller report—which found a 2.2% price decline in U.S. homes since June—means we’ve moved into the second-biggest home price correction of the post–World War II era. On paper, it’s tied with the 2.2% drop between May 1990 and April 1991; however, given that the index is a three-month average, we know the October numbers will surpass that mark. That said, it’s still far below the 26% peak-to-trough decline that occurred between 2007 and 2012.

Continue Reading All About it

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Right now the Catalina Foothills single family home market appears to be tilting down. There are fewer sales, more days on market (DOM) and fewer homes selling for list or over-list prices.  To me, for now, this appears to be a market that is correcting its course. Correcting from the unsustainable super-hot market that took off in January 2021 and burned bright and hot til several months ago, when it began to burn less brightly.  Fewer homes selling, longer DOM and lower Sold/List Price Ratios are key indicators of a cooling market. Lower prices often follow. But where it goes from here is anyone's guess. 

2022 Monthly Sold Numbers

2022	# Homes Sold	Median Sold Price	DOM	Sold/List Price Ratio
January	66	$710,000	5	100%
February	53	$715,000	5	100%
March	88	$796,669	5	100%
April	77	$750,000	4	103.23%
May	66	$818,000	5	101.26%
June	65	$811,000	5	101.39%
July	52	$830,000	6	99.75%
August	51	$840,000	10	99%
September	52	$710,000	13	97.49
October	44	$737,000	14	97.22%
November	48	$822,500	20	98.12%

Yep, not a typo, the MSP for November is $822,500

Meanwhile November 2022 sold prices are UP rather than DOWN yet days on market numbers keep climbing even though inventory remains very tight - as shown on the latest Market Snapshot numbers. Nevertheless, I wouldn't bet a nickel on just one months' worth of numbers.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

they were way over due

and I have finally updated the Market Snapshot &  Just Sold

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 11/28 - 12/04/2022

From Monday November 28 thru Sunday December 4 / 21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/06/2023)

 6 were listed from $500,000 to $599,000
10 from $600,000 to $825,000
 5 from $1,125,000 to $3,499,000

55 MDOM for the above contracts 

... no-end in sight high interest rates, wobbly stock market, high inflation, mediocre (at best) economic outlook and, despite all that, the Catalina Foothills flips 21 homes, across all price points, into contract. Last week I happily mentioned that 25 homes went to contract during the previous 2 weeks and now, with more good news, we have 21 contracts in one week. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

what'll it be, 85718 or 85750 (December 2022)

This is an update of a blog I originally wrote and posted in 2015. Then in January 2022 I updated it and posted it a 2nd time and now, since it is still relevant, I'm recycling it again. 

This new version is updated here and there, mostly regarding the data for home sales. 

The Catalina Foothills is divided into two zip codes, 85718 and 85750, with Craycroft Rd the east/west dividing line between the two - 718 on the west side and 750 east of Craycroft

Most of the buyers I meet have a preference for one or the other or they quickly develop a preference as they investigate the two areas.  And aside from the homes that are for sale in each zip their preference is often based on the look, feel, geographic, topographic, tempo and convenience features of the two areas - which are fairly distinct.

85718 is more developed, with more plazas and a more diverse selection of restaurants, bars, boutiques, shopping and, some would say, more pizzazz.  718 is also closer to Banner Medical Center, The University of Arizona and to downtown Tucson.  And if you’re looking for an older adobe home or a Joesler, you are, with few exceptions, talking about 718. 718 is where John Murphey and Josias Joesler first established the Catalina Foothills Estates, the very first development in the Catalina Foothills in the 1930’s. 718 is also home to many more gated communities than 750.

85750 came later and has its own charms and appeal. With its main shopping, restaurant and retail plaza at one location, at Kolb & Sunrise, it is less developed, less busy with fewer vehicles coming and going and has a calmer, more tranquil atmosphere than 718. For recreation and rejuvenation 750  is home to the hard to beat combination of  Sabino Canyon, Canyon Ranch and Ventana Canyon Golf &  Racquet Club.

And beyond that there are also price differences between the two zips, with more higher priced homes in 85718. And, in general, you may get a bit more home for your money in 750. Though, with the crazy market we've had, who's to say. 

Below on the left side is 85718 with a grand total of 67 single family homes for sale & on the right is 85750 with 51 for sale today, 12/5/2022.

When this post originally appeared in 2015 there were 206 homes listed for sale in 85718 and 192 in 85750..No kidding, the days when you could find a home that you liked, sleep on it, and sleep on it again, and it would still be there in the morning. Now, ???.

Here are the important numbers for 85718 & 85750.
The number of homes sold in the last 6 months (6/1/2022 - 11/30/2022) along with median sold prices and DOM.

85750
162 Homes Sold // $722,500 MSP // 9 DOM

85718
151 Homes Sold // $889,000 MSP // 7 DOM
MSP 23% higher in 718 over 750

Looking back to the same 6 month period in 2019 
MSP $549,000 in 718 
MSP $445,000 in 750
MSP 23% higher in 718 over 750

One more
In 718 MSP rose from $549,000 in 2019 to $889,000 in 2022 - a 61.9% increase, let's call it 62%
In 750 MSP rose from $445,000 in 2019 to $722,500 in 2022 - a 62.3% increase,  ditto

So while median sold prices may be different from each other in 718 & 750, overall price appreciation has been marching in lockstep across the foothills.

85718 & 85750, they’re both in the Catalina Foothills but the look, feel, tempo, home styles and prices of each offer a variety of different options for foothills living. If you’re new to town be sure to check out both areas.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)