They're going up here, there and everywhere. That was true in the short-lived hot market of 2004 - 2006, the market that came to a screeching halt in the throes of the Great Recession of 2007 - 2009 and took years, until 2018 or so to recover, depending on your definition of recover. In its wake it left dozens of vacant high-end spec homes sold for a fraction of their original asking prices and often fell to short sale or foreclosure with builders and banks left holding the bag.
More recently, as the market began to heat up in 2020, and got hotter by the day, news of new spec homes to come kept pace with the booming market.
** DOM begin to accrue the day a home is listed in the MLS and Spec homes are typically listed long before the home is completed, suggesting that DOM figures for spec homes should be taken with a large grain of salt.
Today there are 10 high-end spec homes for sale listed from $1,452,415 to a cool $10,000,000 / all built 2023 - 2024
MLP is $2,872,000 / 168 MDOM & counting
And, coincidentally,10 high-end spec homes Sold this year
MLP was $2,607,500 / MSP is $2,519,200 / 158 MDOM
They may not be flying off the shelf but aside from DOM, those numbers look good
And there is competition,
there are 50 resale homes listed from $1,400,000 - $12,500,000 / built 1963 - 2022.
MLP is $1,772,500 / 99 MDOM & counting
And 95 resale homes listed at $1,400,000 & UP built 1958 - 2022 Sold this year.
MLP $1,750,000 / MSP $1,695,000 / 9 MDOM (yes, Nine)
The Catalina Foothills is a desirable area that is largely built-out with relatively few well located, buildable lots remaining. And while many of the current crop of new spec homes are located in desirable locations, unfortunately, the scarcity and cost of good buildable lots may have led some builders to ignore the first rule of real estate, 'location, location…’ and build high-end homes in less-than high-end locations - such as those adjacent to busy roads like 1st Ave, Craycroft, Swan, River, etc. And others, ignoring the common sense practice of not being the most expensive house on the block, are building high-end homes in neighborhoods surrounded by older, smaller, lower-priced homes.
One of the risks for spec builders is the 2 - 3 year timeframe from hatching the idea for the house to completing its construction in what may be a very different market than it was when they started.
There is no doubt that the frantic market of the covid years, when many of the ideas and plans for these homes were hatched, brought an ‘anything goes wildcatting approach’ to the building, pricing, selling and buying of homes.
That was then, this is now and those days are gone. We're phasing into a more normal market, a market where buyers are becoming increasingly discerning, prioritizing location, quality, and value. The normal due diligence stuff.
As always, the market will decide, yay or nay on what flies and what doesn't. Me, I’m a location hawk.
Catalina Foothills Homes
With The Real Scoop on The Foothills Market
TheFoothillsToday.com | TheTucsonFoothills.com
John Schneider, Realtor® | Tierra Antigua Realty
[email protected] | 520 271- 4164 ________________________________________________________________________________________________
The homes noted in this post are homes that have been listed and sold by us, the Realtors® of the Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona, the MLSSAZ
