Home sales under $1,000,000 had another very good year and sales above $1,000,000 had another so-so year. No big surprises there, though I did expect the $1.0mil+ market to eek out a few more sales.
The numbers:
A grand total of 897 single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills in 2017.
That is 8.2% more homes sold than in 2016 and a great deal more than every year since 2006.They sold quickly too, at a median of 39 days on market, 38% quicker than it took in 2016. And 2017 median sold prices are 6.6% higher than they were in 2016.
Broken down into two price ranges, homes sold up to $999,999 and those sold for $1,000,000 & UP, it looks like this;
First up, the number of homes sold up to $999k each year from 2004 thru 2017. Clearly, a market with impressive gains that has grown stronger year by year.
Next up, the number of homes sold at $1,000,000 & UP each year since 2004.
Well, the good news is, with 53 homes sold in 2016 & in 2017 (yes, 53 sold each year) sales for the last 2 years are higher than they’ve been since 2009. But not by much. And with sales still 57% below where they were in 2006, it is, frankly, a rather pathetic recovery for the upper-end market.
And, median sold prices.
2017 Median sold prices are UP an impressive 6.6% over 2016. However, since bottoming out in 2012 median sold prices are up just 14% since then – and 6.6% of that gain is thanks to 2017’s impressive numbers. Bottom line, other than 2017, sold prices have risen at a snails pace, though, perhaps and hopefully, that is finally changing. We’ll see.
Happy New Year!
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The following charts track single family home sales & sold prices in the Catalina Foothills for January – November of each year from 2004 to 2017.
First up, the number of homes sold up to $999,999
Thru November Catalina Foothills home sales up to $999,999 are UP more than 11% over 2016.
And they sold quicker this year, 29% quicker than last year – in 38 median days on market v. 62 last year. Homes even sold quicker this year than they did in 2004 – 2005, when the market was going thru the roof, 91 & 65 days on market then v. a skimpy 38 days now.
Next up, the number of homes sold at $1,000,000 or more
Last month I said;
Sales at this price point have been bouncing along the bottom for the past 9 years, 9 years with very little (hardly any) improvement, with sales up a little bit one year and down the next.
And for the most part that is still true. Except that this year (for the first time in years) will be the 2nd year in a row of (marginally) growing sales. Sales rose in 2016 and they have risen again this year. Nevertheless, the big picture is more than twice as many $million homes sold in 2006 than will sell this year. That's a fact.
And median sold prices for Catalina Foothills homes.
Thru November median sold prices this year are UP 6% over 2016 - the largest yearly increase since 2013. And a pretty healthy increase for just one year.
However, since hitting bottom in 2012 median sold prices in the Catalina Foothills are up a measly 14%. Measly, I say, because prices dropped 32% from their 2006 high to their 2012 low. So we've still got a long way to go go go to get back to where we were 11 years ago.
Please keep in mind that sold prices do not perform uniformly throughout the Catalina Foothills. Some areas, some homes, some price ranges perform better or worse than others. The median numbers are only indicative of the overall Foothills market.
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In the Mountain Estates at Ventana, 7207 E Stone Canyon Drive - a short sale, built 2003, concrete block construction, 6328 sf, 5 Beds/5 Baths, with all the trimmings, bells and whistles,
came on the market 8 days ago asking $1,100,000 a measly ($174//sf) and, of course, it’s now gone. I’d be surprised if there wasn’t a 2 or 3 way (or more) bidding war. See it HERE
Previously, it was listed in 2006 for $5,000,000, but no go, then listed again in 2015 for $3,500,000, then again in 2016/2017 for $1,985,000 > $1,786,500 > finally $1,699,990 with the listing cancelled earlier this month. Whereupon it was re-listed last week with Mr. Lenders blessing at $1,100,000 – a cut to the chase too good to pass up price. Live in it, hold it for a time and re-sell it for much more, I don’t see how you could lose on this one.
True to form Zillow pegs its current value at $1,249,170 (gee, I wonder where they came up with that). While back in November 2014 (a much gloomier time for the upper-end market) they valued it at a bright, shiny $2,700,000.
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The following charts track single family home sales & sold prices in the Catalina Foothills for January - June of each year from 2004 to 2017.
First up, the number of homes sold up to $999,999
For the first 6 months, sales this year are UP 8.4% over 2016 and are higher than every year since 2005.
Next up, the number of homes sold at $1,000,000 or more
For the first 6 months, sales at $1,000,000+ are UP 24% over 2016 and are higher than every year since 2008. For the first time in years we have now had 2 years in a row of rising sales. However, with 73 homes still for sale and 31 sold in the last 6 months, it is still a market that has a long way to go.
Finally, Median sold prices for Catalina Foothills homes.
Median sold prices continued to rise in June. They are UP 7% over this May and UP almost 4% over June 2016. And for the first 6 months sold prices this year are UP 8.4% over Jan – June 2016. And they are higher than any Jan – June period since 2008. So no matter how you look at it, sold prices are UP.
The May report is HERE
A very positive and encouraging 6 months for Catalina Foothills home sales.
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5470 N Camino Real, Tucson, AZ 85718, built in 2007 is a 5,410 sf, 5 bedroom (plus media room, plus a ''hang out'' room!) masonry home on a private 1.2 acre lot in the heart of the Old Foothills off Camino Real and in District 16.
If top quality construction, materials, finishes and features are important to you then you may want to check it out. – masonry construction, all Pella windows and doors, solid alder interior doors, mesquite and limestone floors, hand-hewn beams, specialty tile work and lighting, top of the line appliances and fixtures, hand forged iron gates on a private lot with terrific mountain and city views. Priced at $1,273,000 ($235/sf) for a home that is easily in the $300+/sf category.
A few pictures
Here’s a link to the listing, with more photos and info.
5470 N Camino Real, Tucson, AZ 85718 (MLS# 21715899)
Disclosure; The owners are friends of mine. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t have written what I wrote if it weren’t true. This is a very impressive and beautifully built house. The kind of top quality construction and attention to detail that is rare these days. And at this price it’s also a very good deal.
If at first glance its location by the side of Camino Real is not appealing I suggest you take a few minutes and see the interior of the house, the front and rear yards and the views. And then decide.
Thank you,
John Schneider
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The following charts track single family home sales & sold prices in the Catalina Foothills for January thru May of each year from 2004 to 2017.
First up, Homes Sold up to $999,999;
The beat goes on, sales continue to improve. Except for the 2014 drop, sales up to $999 have improved every year since 2010 and are now just 14% below the 2005 peak.
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Sales at $1,000,000 & UP
Thru April sales at $1.0mil+ this year were neck n’neck with last year. But May came to the rescue - with 11 homes sold this May – sales this year are now up 36% over last year.
More homes sold at $1.0+ this May than in every May since 2005,(with the exception of May 2007 with the same 11 sales) – an encouraging bit of news for a market that’s been struggling for years.
How many more sold this May?
Here are the number of sales for each May since 2005;
2005 – 12 / 2006 -10 / 2007 – 11 / 2008 – 8 / 2009 – 3 / 2010 – 4 / 2011 – 4 / 2012 – 7 / 2013 – 4 / 2014 – 6 / 2015 – 3 / 2016 – 4.
At the risk of laying it on a bit thick because, well, it’s just one month, the days on market (DOM) before a home goes to contract and sells is also a pretty good guide to the demand and strength of a particular market.
The 11 homes sold this May were on the market 106 median DOM.
In 2006, at the tippy-top of the $$$$million+ buying frenzy the 10 homes sold in May were on the market 108 median DOM. May 2012 – 186 DOM. May 2014 – 214 DOM. And so on.
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Median Sold prices thru May
Sold prices continue to hold their own. YTD Median sold prices are up 10% over last year and 19% since scrapping bottom in 2012.
All in all a very positive market report for 2017.
The April sales & sold charts are HERE
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Our listing at 4820 N Via De La Granja is featured today in the online edition of the New York Times column ‘What You Get’ and in the print edition this Sunday April 20th,
See it here > $1.2 Million Homes in Arizona, Rhode Island and California
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We just put a new listing in Cat 10 in the MLS today; a warm contemporary designed and built in 1993 by David Tyson, 4446 sf, 5 bedrooms/4 baths including a guest suite with a private entrance, sitting room, kitchenette, bedroom and bath. The main kitchen and master bath have been totally and beautifully remodeled with significant updating to the 3 other baths and throughout the house, 3 car garage on a spectacular 1.6 acre hilltop lot with gorgeous city and mountain views. $1,195,000 ($269/sf)
4820 N Vía De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718
Have a peek,
Click HERE for a link to the listing with more photos and additional information.
4820 N Vía De La Granja Tucson, AZ 85718
Listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman
Please contact us if you would like to see it.
John Schneider – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 271 – 4164
[email protected]
Caroline Freedman – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 405 – 1794
[email protected]
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brings the total to 12 sold at $1million+ for 2017 (v. 8 during same period 2016)
6221 E Vista Del Canon, Tucson, AZ 85750 in Finisterra has finally sold. It was first listed in May of 2013 for $1,650,000 and after nearly 4 years and 4 price cuts it got down to $1,150,000 and sold for $1,060,000 ($211/sf). The high points are the great setting and views but with an interior that though very well kept exuded 80’s glamour and would require a big remodel to update – not the kind of project that most buyers are anxious to tackle.
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In Cobblestone, 7260 N Cathedral Rock Road, Tucson, AZ 85718 also from the 80’s but a simple contemporary design that held up quite well, and killer city views, it found a buyer in just 11 days and sold for $1,075,000 from a $1,195,000 list.
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Also in Cobblestone and with Wow! big city views 7421 N Moon Spirit Lane, Tucson, AZ 85718 was listed for $1,495,000 in November 2015 and after dropping to $1,349,000 it sold the other day for $1,296,500. The sellers paid $1.6mil in 2007. For me this property is all about the views, the house, eh, not so much.
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And, my how things change, 4905 N Camino Antonio, Tucson, AZ 85718, listed for $1,385,000 sold in 1 day for $1,325,000.
A beautiful minimalist contemporary spec home it was completed in 2007 and had a helluva time selling back then – after 483 days it finally sold in July 08 for $1,350,000 and then it sold again in 2012 for $1,262,500 after 74 days.
It was one of a set of triplets, 3 contemporaries, built on Camino Antonio by the same architect, Don Kornberg. No pictures in the current listing so here are a few from back then;
If you are interested in ancient history I blogged about this home and its two siblings back in June 2012 - SOLD, a real contemporary
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14 homes have gone to contract listed from $1,000,000 to $1,895,000
3 of those in contract have sold + 2 more sales from late 2016 contracts, from $1,040,000 to $1,177,500.
So 16 high-end homes either in-play or sold in a little over 2 months, impressive.
And because high-end homes were going to contract at a pretty quick clip during the first 6 weeks of the year (I’m guessing) more sellers decided to strike while the market is hot and list their homes this year – bringing 33 new listings to market.
Which brings the current inventory to 93 homes listed for sale from $1,000,000 to $12,500,000 - and 5 homes sold in 2+ months = about a 38 month supply of high-end homes. But – assuming we’re not barraged with more new listings - that number will drop as the 11 homes in contract sell.
Notwithstanding the rush of early contracts this year, traditionally, the high-end market picks up its pace in March, April and sometimes even May.
Last year was the best year (in a series of dismal years) since 2008 for the Catalina Foothills $1million+ market; will 2017 be another best year.
It looks possible, maybe even promising, but still way to early to make bets. Particularly if, as I have, you’ve made them and been dead wrong.
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3280 E Camino Juan Paisano, Tucson, AZ 85718 in La Paloma Estates sold yesterday for $1,100,000 from a $1.2 list price that had been reduced from its original $1.350 list when it first hit the market in June 2015.
A nice Mediterranean, solid masonry construction, newer than many - built 2004, single story with just a few interior steps, in the ever-popular La Paloma Estates. And, for a house like that in La P, reasonably priced too.
So why did it take so long to sell?
One word, views. It doesn’t have any from the house. None to speak of anyway. A peek-a-boo view here or there, if you lean this way or that. But that’s about it. And whether it’s mountain or city, everyone wants a nice view. And in my experience, if you’re spending $1million+, it’s a prerequisite.
It took a while but the sellers and their agent lucked out. A buyer came along who liked the house enough to forgo the views. And Zillow didn’t mind the lack of views either, they valued it at $1,226,335.
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From time to time since February I’ve observed, noted and sometimes touted the signs of an improving upper-end market. And, happily, to this day that upward trend continues – upper-end sales are up from last year and up from every year since they tanked (we thought) in 2009. But, unhappily, they tanked even further in 2011, 2013 & 2015. All odd numbered years, hmmm?
Since 2009 the market has seesawed, up one year and down the next.
It’s up this year but how do we know this is the real deal, that the market is going to continue on this upswing. My answer – I don’t know, do you.
Last year (from 1/1 – 8/31) 24 homes sold at $1,000,000+.
This year 37 sold - 54% more, hurrah, but from a pretty low base.
A similar scenario took place during the same period in 2011 – 2012.
27 homes sold in 2011 and 34 sold in 2012 – a 26% increase.
But instead of continuing on that upswing, sales dropped to just 25 homes in 2013 – a 26% decrease.
I think the upper-end market in the Catalina Foothills is still a fragile market, largely subject to the willingness and consent to participate of many discretionary buyers. If sellers become irrationally exuberant over the increase in sales and take it as an opportunity to unreasonably raise their prices (or, depending, raise them at all), then 2017 may well end up looking like a repeat of one of those other odd numbered years.
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4665 N Quartz Hill Place, Tucson, AZ 85750, a contemporary built off the side of a ridge in 2010, sold quickly as a foreclosure in 2014 for the bargain basement price of $630,500. No surprise there. But it sold again the other day, after just 17 days, for $1,025,000 (from $1.099 list price). When it sold in 2014 it was in good condition, not perfect, but not beaten up like many foreclosures – so there wasn’t a ton of $$ that needed to go into it, not that I could see.
I showed it in 2014 but my buyer wasn’t ready to take that steep a leap
Literally, yep, an awfully steep driveway. And I can tell you from experience that homes with steep driveways, when they’re steep going down to the house – like this one is, are usually a very tough sale. At $630,500 it was a deal, steep driveway and all. That seller took a risk and made a quick bundle.
3174 E Via Palomita, Tucson, AZ 85718 was on and off the market since 2007, when it started out asking $1,850,000, and ended up selling the other day for $1,200,000 from a $1,200,000 list price.
A perfectly nice house, very attractive inside and out, newer, built 2005, it appeared to be very well built masonry construction, in meticulous condition and a great location in La Paloma Estates. For a long time it was overpriced but by 2014 it had dropped to $1,350,000 but still no sale. So what gives, why no sale. Because the sellers were looking for a needle in a haystack – looking for a buyer willing to spend $1.2 or more for a house with no views.
There are no views from the house and just a sliver of a mountain view from the middle of the back yard. I’d guess that if it had a north/south orientation with good mountain views it would have sold years ago for $1,400,000 or more.
As I’ve mentioned previously (over and over again), the upper-end market has improved this year. But I’m still very surprised that Quartz Hill went so quickly (and for so much) and that Via Palomita got $1.2 with no views.
But there you go, I don’t call the shots, buyers do.
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Another month, another 86 homes sold. Not the stellar performance of June, but, nonetheless, very respectable for July.
Thru July there’ve been 552 single family homes sold this year – a 5% increase over the same period last year when 524 sold.
Prices, though, haven’t held up their end.
They’re quite a bit lower than June, but who cares, that’s just one month and prices often go up and down in the short term. More to the point, sold prices from January thru July this year show no improvement from where they were last year – average sold prices are up less than 1% and median are down about 4%, … prices are going nowhere.
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I just updated the Market Snapshot numbers (which was woefully out of date) and they’re the best they’ve been in a long time – across all price ranges. MOI (months of inventory) is down across the board.
And for the latest year-to-date numbers, I updated the following charts to show sales from January thru April for the years 2004 – 2016. First up, the number of homes sold up to $999,999
Next, the number sold at $1,000,000 & UP
And finally, median sold prices
A mixed bag. Sales have regained their momentum and are UP over the last couple years, but sold prices are still struggling and nowhere near where they were even prior to 2011.
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Have you heard, ‘the market’s perk, perk, perking up’
April home sales are not only higher than any month shown on the chart; I went all the way back to Jan 2011 (and gave up there) and they’re higher than any month since then.
For comparison, at the height of the market madness in 2004/2005 - 111 & 96 homes sold in April. And I’ll bet there’s still a few sales for this April that have not yet been turned in to the MLS.
Also, the 94 homes that sold in April sold rather quickly, in a smashing 47 median days on the market. In April 2015 it took 84 days to unload 71 homes, and 66 days to unload 61 in April 2014.
Another bright spot, 7 homes sold from $1,220,000 to $2,100,000. SEVEN!
Thru April, home sales are up a smidge this year, at 268 v. 257 for 2015 – April saved the day, thru March 2016 sales were down 6.4% v 2015.
What about sold prices,
Well, ho-hum, the average sold price is right up there (driven by those 7 $mil+ sales) but the median is, at best, mostly mediocre compared to the last 15 months.
Thru April, average sold prices are up 4.5% v. 2015, but (hold the applause) the median is down 2%.
Looking ahead to May and June sales, currently there are 164 homes in contract, and more going under every day.
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