The Catalina Foothills

this just in

For more than two months now I’ve been cautiously touting signs of an improving upper-end market. Nothing solid, nothing to bet the farm on, and some of it just a gut feel.

But now, after 4 months of sales, there is some solid evidence that the upper is doing appreciably better this year than last year.

Jan 1 – April 29th
9 homes sold at $1,000,000 or more last year
15 sold at $1,000,000 or more this year

OK, hurrah, 66% more sales,

But there’s more,

in 2015
the median sold price for the 9 sold was $1,200,000
in 2016 it’s $1,320,000

in 2015
the median $$/sf sold price for the 9 sold was $212/sf
in 2016 it’s $268/sf

and
in 2015 the dollar volume (the total $$ value of the 9 sales) was $11,320,000
in 2016 it’s $20,841,330

that’s an 84% increase in dollar volume on a 66% increase in sales.

And perhaps most telling of all, they didn’t dawdle on the market this year like they did last year,
in 2015 the 9 sales were on the market a median of 189 days before going to contract
in 2016 it's 70 days.

Not monumental, but nothing to sneeze at either.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

talk about the upper-end market picking up …

It just got a big boost;
On 93 acres high above Ventana CC, and listed at $2,800,000, 7300 E Stone Canyon Drive, Tucson, AZ 85750, went to contract yesterday. Enough said,

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the last 2 weeks, 4/11 – 4/24

From Monday April 11th thru Sunday April 24th,  51 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ.

39 were priced from $164,000 to $589,000
7 from $625,000 to $999,000
5 from $1,100,000 to $1,975,000

An auspicious 2 weeks for homes at all prices.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

another big $$$ sale

5420 N Campbell Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85718 - a very grand Tucson territorial on 4 acres - was listed 158 days ago for $1,799,000 and sold today for $1,625,000 ($268/sf), cash.
Nice sale for today and all that, but the sellers paid $1,600,000 for it in 2001.

Calling it at $1,906,578, Zillow flubbed it again.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

 

 

 

2 big sales in Skyline CC

6840 N Los Leones Drive in Skyline CC sold yesterday for $1,750,000 cash, ($357/sf cha-ching) from a $2,150,000 list price in, get this, 64 days. Zillow zestimated Los Leones at $1,594,636. 
A lavish Mediterranean Los Leones was previously for sale in 2012 - 2014 for the make me move price of $2,750,000. But no one moved.

And John Klein’s masterpiece in Skyline finally found a buyer. Range priced from $1,800,000 to $2,500,000 6700 N Saint Andrews Drive sold for $2,100,000 cash, ($311/sf) – one of the few examples of high-end range pricing that actually came in within the range. A wonderful house that, in my opinion, was hampered by not so wonderful views. Zillow totally blew it, valuing it at $1,666,863.

This is a big vote of confidence for Skyline CC, due, in no small part, to the freshly refurbished and now wildly popular country club. 

St Andrews is the highest $$ sale in Skyline since 2007 while Los Leones placed 3rd.
With these two under our belt 2016 sales at $1million+ in the foothills are at 11 sales v. 7 for the same period last year. I’ve been saying it and we’re now beginning to see it, the upper-end is perking up – there are 14 homes in contract listed from $1,000,000 to $2,295,000.  
Stay tuned.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 4/4 – 4/10

From Monday April 4th thru Sunday April 10th,  30 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ.

25 were priced from $185,000 to $549,000
3 from $600,000 to $899,000
2 at $1,195,000 & $2,295,000 (and in no time at all, just 41 & 45 DOM)

another Hot week for Catalina Foothills home sales

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

$million+ Homes Sales, Foothills & the Northwest

A reader of this blog wondered if the woes of the Catalina Foothills $million+ market were perhaps due to an increasing share of high-end buyers choosing Oro Valley and Marana over the foothills. He further wondered that if it were true that $1million sales had not vanished into thin air, but instead had migrated from the foothills to Oro Valley/Marana, if that would show that the post 2009 rebound of the high-end market  (that has yet to appear in the foothills) was well underway, but just not well underway in the foothills.

Well, as you can see, at first glance that does not appear to be the case. What did happen is that after exploding, briefly, during the boom years the foothills market nose-dive-crashed and has bumped along the bottom since then. During that same time the OV/Marana market rose, but more gradually and gently and has fallen since then, but not nearly as dramatically.

And here’s a subtlety the chart does not show.

Including all $1million+ sales in OV/Marana and the Catalina Foothills, in 2006 the foothills captured 82% of all $1million+ sales
In 2008 that number dropped to 61%
In 2010 it dropped a smidge to $60%
In 2012 it popped up to 72%
In 2014 it dropped to 64%
In 2015 it dropped again to 56%
and for the 1st qtr of 2016 it’s neck n’ neck, with 9 sales each. Uh-Oh!

So while we’re not anywhere near where sales were during the boom it is clear that little by little OV/Marana is capturing a larger percentage of high-end sales.

For the life of me I can’t imagine why, (think many more newer homes in OV/Marana than fthls) but that’s just me, the foothills is my kind of place.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

and a few more $million+ contracts

Since March 21st, when I last reported on contracts at $million+ (HERE),  4 more $million+ homes have gone to contract.

These latest, priced from $1,195,000 to $1,399,950, include 2 Joeslers (Joesler & Joesler ) in the old Foothills (when was the last time 2  $million+ Joeslers went to contract in the same year, never mind 2 in the same week), an awfully good looking contemporary in Ventana CC and a soft contemporary on Sabino Mountain.

Including the 5 $million+ contracts mentioned on March 21st, and the 5 in early March (is the $million+ market finally waking up), that’s 14 $$$contracts in about 40 days. And that’s pretty darn good.

But have no fear, while the market may be starting to chip away at the glut of $million+ listings, new $$$listings are quickly filling the gaps. There are still 95 homes for sale at $1million+.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

Sunday Open Houses

At last count there were 68 homes in the Catalina Foothills holding Open Houses this Sunday, including our listing at 5330 N Via Alcalde, which we’ll be holding Open from 2 – 4 PM.
Stop by, say Hi and see a very special Spanish Colonial home.

See all the Open Houses HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 3/21- 3/27

From Monday March 21st thru Sunday March 27th,  32 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ.  Another solid week for March.

In late February I said; It’s still early, the big action doesn’t usually kick in until mid to late March.
Well this is March, and during the last 3 weeks there’s been a definite up-kick in the action.

22 were priced for $185,000 to $595,000
6 from $625,000 to $799,000
4 from $1,025,000 to $1,452,000
Something for everyone!

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

timing

On Sabino Mountain, 4062 N Quail Canyon Drive was listed for sale (for $1,195,000) but had not yet been entered into the MLS when along came an early bird buyer who quickly struck a deal for $1,155,000 ($292/sf) and that was that.

Quail Canyon closed today after 0 days on market, while last year it was for sale for 117 days (for $1,249,000) and nothing happened. Odd how that happens. The other variant of that is when a house is for sale for months with no offers and then suddenly, out of nowhere, there are 2 or 3 offers. It happens. It happened to me representing a buyer last week, fortunately we prevailed.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

if this keeps up …

In a blog post earlier this month I asked, is the $million+ market finally waking up.

And I went on to note that in the previous 10 days 5 homes listed from $1,245,000 to $1,975,000 had gone to contract. More activity than we’d seen in a long time

Now, nearly three weeks later, another 5 homes listed from $1,000,000 to $2,150,000 have also gone to contract. 3 in the last 5 days, plus 2 more in the last 10 days.

That’s 10 big contracts in the last 30 days, not bad. Not enough to eliminate the glut of $million listings, there are still 98 for sale, but it’s a start.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

we’ve barely moved the needle

Reading the tea leaves earlier this year I saw signs that the foothills market was primed and ready to pick up this year and we’d likely see a nice jump in sales and, hopefully, in prices too. But so far the reality is different from the tea leaves. We’re almost at the halfway mark in our selling season and sales and prices are just about where they were at this time last year – with barely any improvement. Last year wasn’t a bad year (unless you were selling at $1million or more), sales and prices rose over 2014, but we still had a long way to go to get back to where prices were in 2005 – 2008. And we still do.

Here are the sales numbers for single family homes for the period of Jan 1 thru March 10th – 2015 – 2016.

2015
123 single family homes sold
at $464,845/$395,000 average/median sold $$
at a median of $158/sf
in 87 cumulative days on market
4 sales at 1$million+

2016
132 single family homes sold
at $468,861/$398,400
at a median of $160/sf
in 55 cumulative days on market
5 sales at 1$million+

The only bright spot is that the homes that are selling are selling about 37% faster this year than last year. Stay tuned for the 2nd half.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 2/29 – 3/6

From Monday February 29th thru Sunday March 6th  22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ.

15 were priced from $245,000 to $519,000
4 from $775,000 to $839,000
3 biggies, from $1,245,000 to $1,799,000 (no, not 3 more biggies, the same 3 mentioned HERE)

A big improvement from the previous weak week

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s the market like in your fav foothills subdivision

Here’s a peek at the homes for sale, in contract and sold (from 1/1/16 – 3/4/16) in a selection of popular Catalina Foothills communities. (click any subdivision name to see all the homes for sale, continuously updated)

Coronado Foothills Estates
15 for sale from $265,000 to $1,350,000 ($706,247/$691,000 – avg/med list $$)
1 in contract at $649,900
2 sold at $357,500 & $580,000 ($468,750/$468,750 – avg/med sold $$)
A long way to go, about 15 months supply of homes at current rate of sales

Skyline CC
23 for sale from $585,000 to $2,150,000 – ($1,132,647/$1,100,000)
2 in contract at $839,000 & $1,800,000
3 sold at $475,000, $559,000, $600,000 - ($544,667/$559,000)
Ditto, about 15 months supply

Shadow Hills
10 for sale from $475,000 to $739,000 - ($555,390/$519,450)
4 in contract $360,000 to $495,000
3 sold at $300,000, $485,000, $658,000 ($481,000/$485,000)
A balanced market (6 month supply) that will likely get tighter as the end of school year approaches.

Pinnacle Ridge
0 for sale
2 in contract at $679,000 & $778,000 (both in 30 days or less)
1 sold at $679,000 (in 3 days)
Par for the course for Pinnacle, it is perpetually in strong demand with little or no supply

Foothills Clusters
2 for sale at $339,000 & $349,900 ($344,450/$344,450)
2 in contract at $239,300 & $269,900
0 sold
No worries for FC, 23 homes sold last year though with just 2 for sale it may not happen this year.

Cimarron
12 for sale from $424,500 to $699,000 + 1 at $1,054,000 ($577,608/$537,000)
0 zip, zilch in contract
1 lonely sale at $690,000 after 195 days
Not sure what’s up with Cim this year, last year 15 homes sold in there

Skyline Bel Air
4 for sale from $355,000 to $726,500 ($574,875/$609,000)
2 in contract at $343,200 & $470,000
0 sold
No worries for SBA either, 19 homes sold last year and as long as sellers don’t get too greedy I’m betting it will also do just fine this year too.

Sin Vacas
9 for sale from $449,000 to $1,500,000 ($864,556/$795,000)
1 in contract at $724,500 (after 300+ days)
1 sold at $625,000
Ditto with Cimarron, last year 9 homes sold in Sin Vacas – now, at the current rate of sales, there’s an 18 month supply? Though it’s still early innings.

Sabino Mountain
8 for sale from $350,000 to $1,399,950 ($724,106/$596,500)
3 in contract at $294,900, $384,500, $398,000
2 sold at $308,000 & $337,000 ($322,500/$322,500)
An 8 month supply, not bad, considering, but with all the action at the bottom end.

Flecha Caida
16 homes for sale from $290,000 to $1,199,000 - ($592,963/$485,000)
5 in contract from $299,000 to $399,000 + 1 at $660,000
5 sold from $239,000 to $480,000 + 1 at $717,000 ($425,200/$365,000)
With just a tad over a 6 month supply FC is experiencing a balanced market. Though, so far, that balance does not extend to those homes listed from the high $900’s to over $1mil.

La Paloma Estates CC
30 for sale from $259,900 to $1,295,000 - ($606,718/$534,950)
5 in contract from $394,000 to $985,000
8 sold from $205,000 to $1,100,000 - ($543,125/$550,000)

The inventory is a tad on the high side (about 7.5 months, no biggie) but on the bright side the price of homes for sale and those in contract and selling are in pretty close sync, with no gaping gaps between buyer & seller expectations.

Ventana CC 
33 for sale from $379,000 to $6,500,000 - ($1,175,768/$879,000)
3 in contract at $419,000, $1,025,000, $1,495,000
6 sold from $340,000 to $1,320,000 - ($738,750/$735,000)
Highish inventory (about 11 months) and a pretty big gap between the price of homes for sale v. those selling.

Pima Canyon
12 for sale from $1,095,000 to $2,600,000 - ($1,598,417/$1,512,000)
1 in contract at $1,975,000 – because, at $255/sf, it’s priced to sell not sit.
0 sold.   Bleak!

PC, for years the poster child for successful luxury home sales in the foothills – the one that could when others couldn’t - has fallen on hard times. Why? All thru the foothills the upper-end market is weak and has been for years. And despite the weak market asking prices on new listings in PC (and elsewhere) have risen this year, as if the market was going gangbusters, instead of falling. And many are at a point where they are just too far out of whack with buyer expectations. And many upper-end buyers don’t need to buy, they’re buying a luxury amenity, not a roof over their head.

 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

is the $million+ market finally waking up

In the last two days 3 homes listed at $1,245,000, $1,290,000 and $1,799,000 have gone to contract. Just like that.

That’s more activity in the $million+ market than we’ve seen in a long, long time. Throw in the two homes listed at $1,800,000 and $1,975,000 that went to contract last week and you have a lot of upper-end contracts in the last 10 days. Let’s hope it continues. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

2 really big contracts yesterday

Contracts on homes listed at $1,500,000 and up have been few and far between for a long, long time. Then yesterday in Skyline CC 6700 N Saint Andrews Drive range priced from $1,800,000 ($266/sf) to $2,500,000 went to contract.

And my listing with Caroline Freedman at 7828 N Ancient Indian in Pima Canyon also went to contract after just 12 days on the market listed at $1,975,000 ($255/sf).

Why them and not the competition.
I’m guessing because both are priced quite a bit less than the competition; looking at homes in the Catalina Foothills priced at $1,500,000 and Up, built 2000 or later, one story, gated community – there are only 7 for sale and 6 of them are in Pima Canyon. But they’re all priced from $327 to $456/sf while St Andrews is $266/sf and Ancient Indian is $255. And when they sell at those prices or less it will make it just a little bit harder to justify $300+/sf. But that’s the way it goes.

 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

An overview of the market since January 1st

For single family homes in the Catalina Foothills;

294 homes have been listed or re-listed, priced from $144,900 to $6,500,000
Average/Median list price - $681,509/$509,500
Median list price/sf - $181
For a grand total of 478 single family homes for sale.

108 homes have gone to contract, priced from $154,900 to $1,495,000* – *the only 1 over $1million)
Average/Median list price - $469,236/$399,900
Median list price/sf - $167

76 homes have sold, priced from $204,000 to $1,550,000 – 3 sales over $1million on 2015 contracts.
Average/Median sold price - $476,451/$385,000
Median sold price/sf - $165

What’s encouraging; 108 contracts in 45 days is a very good start to our high season.
What’s not encouraging; the median price of new listings is way higher (like 27% higher) than the price of homes going to contract. Which, of course, indicates that lower priced homes are getting snapped up and upper priced homes are getting listed but not snapped up. 

See the Market Snapshot for a breakdown by price range of homes for sale, in contract and sold.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the last 2 weeks, 1/25 – 2/7

From Monday January 25th thru Sunday February 7th,  33 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 3/9/16) 

25 were priced from $154,900 to $599,000
8 from $625,000 to $939,000
and that’s it!, nothing for the 91 homes listed from $1,000,000 to $13,900,000

A disappointingly slow 2 weeks for contracts
Why do I say that, well, because, during the previous week (just 1 week) there were 30 contracts and as we get further into the season the numbers should pick up, not drop off.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

a sneak peak

at our newest listing in Pima Canyon, though it is not yet in the MLS

A sophisticated contemporary home on a stunning view lot behind the 2nd gate in the Sunset Gardens area of Pima Canyon Estates.

Exquisite architectural details include curved iron beamed entry, stack stone exterior walls, Brazilian granite, travertine floors, tall solid wood doors, tongue & groove ceilings and views from every room. 

Living room with wet bar, fireplace and wine room, opens to a covered patio with fireplace and sunset views.

 

Expansive kitchen with top of the line cabinetry, appliances, Brazilian granite,

wide open to the spacious family room overlooking the yard, pool and mountain views.

 

Stunning pool/spa with 2 waterfalls, large covered patio and sensational mountain views.

Sublime master bedroom wing with large sitting area, fireplace, gorgeous bathroom with jetted tub and walk-in shower, grand custom closet, 2nd laundry room and exercise room/office.

 

 

Built 2009, 7756sf, 1.1 acre lot, 5 Bedrooms/5.5 Baths, one level – no steps, 1000 bottle Wine Room, 3 Car Garage, Spacious and flat backyard with covered patios, Pool/Spa and 2 Waterfalls, and those views.

And at $1,975,000 ($255/sf) it’s not only drop dead gorgeous, it’s also the best value for a top of the line luxury home in Pima Canyon. And for what it’s worth, Zillow has it at $2,334,847.

UPDATE; February 9th, it is now in the MLS
See it here -  7828 N Ancient Indian Dr Tucson, AZ 85718

Listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman
Contact us for showings

John Schneider – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 271 – 4164
[email protected]

Caroline Freedman – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 405 – 1794
[email protected]

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

things must be getting better

Camino Blanco sold for almost $300k more than it did in 2010

3900 N Camino Blanco, a 10,529sf home that was built as a spec in 2007 and listed for $3,400,000 ($323/sf) and sold 3 years later as a foreclosure for $710,000 ($73/sf), Yep $710K, sold again the other day for $995,000 ($95/sf, including its 2.6 acre lot) from a $999,000 list price (reduced from $1,299,950).

Cmo Blanco was the poster child for the outlandish spec building, and list prices, of the boom years and the crash that followed. I wrote about it often, HERE  HERE HERE and elsewhere, following its many price cuts from $3.4mil to its eventual sale at $710k.

Say what you will, but one thing’s for sure, if you’re looking for a 10,000sf home that’s less than 10 years old, for the $$$, nothing comes even close to  3900 N Camino Blanco, Tucson, AZ 85718.

PS – meanwhile, Zillow zestimates its value at $1,707,770, and that’s down almost $200k from where they had it just last month. Huh! And once again they don’t show the sale, but show it as off the market.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

speaking of upper-end listings

We’re holding one of ours open this Sunday (1/17) from 1 to 4.

If this looks like your cup of tea, or you’re just curious, please stop by, say Hi, and see it in person.

An architecturally significant, thoroughly restored and carefully updated Spanish Colonial that exudes the grace and charm of classic old foothills living. Its design was inspired by a home in Guanajuato, Mexico, and it is rich in historic architectural elements, details and artifacts from Guanajuato and historic Tucson sites.

5330 N. Via Alcalde
Tucson, AZ 85718

Built 1969, 1.37 acres, masonry stucco construction, 4361 sf, 4 Bedrooms/3.5 Baths, Living Room, Dining Room, Library, unique “rec room”, glorious patio spanning the south side, 2 car garage. $1,225,000. 2 additional and adjacent lots are also available.

 

There’s nothing else like it.

5330 N. Via Alcalde
Tucson, AZ 85718

Listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman

John Schneider – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 271 – 4164
[email protected]

Caroline Freedman – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 405 – 1794
[email protected]

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

even the upper-end is feeling its oats

well, sellers and listing agents are anyway.

12 brand new listings have debuted since Jan 1 priced from $1,000,000 to $2,150,000.

And another 7 homes priced from $1,095,000 to $6,500,000, that were listed before, have been listed again.

Bottom line, 84 homes for sale (and counting) from $1,000,000 to $13,900,000 vs... 33 sold from $1,000,000 to $2,400,000 all of last year.

Because our upper-end market has been so weak for so long we need nothing less than a game changer to reignite it.

 

And the only possible real game changer I see is upper-end buyers (comprised, largely, of 2nd home and retirement home buyers) finally giving in to their pent-up desire to buy a home and making a move this year.

 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract the last 2 weeks

From Monday December 7th thru Sunday December 20th,  32 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 1/21/16)

23 were priced from $149,900 to $590,000
5 from $639,000 to $799,000
and here’s the big news,
4 from $1,025,000 to $1,475,000 (an out of the blue performance at one of the most unlikely times of the year)

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Very Good Sale for Cat 10

And even though they lucked out, the sellers may not agree.

3252 E Camino Boscaje Escondido JUST SOLD for $1,450,000 ($254/sf) from a $1,499,999 list price. What’s not to like. (link expires 1/14/16)

For the sellers, who started out asking $2,195,000 in 2014 (and paid $1,750,000 in 2011), let me count the ways. But that’s the market for luxury/discretionary purchase homes. Which is much, if not all, of the market at the upper end - very few who are paying $1.450 in the Catalina Foothills are buying a roof over their head.

And the sellers knew the drill. When they bought it in 2011 for $1.750 - which, at the time, may have seemed like the deal of a lifetime - Boscaje Escondido was asking $1,899,000, reduced from $2,690,000. And here we are 4 years later and still this market continues to disappoint.

That’s the 3rd $1million+ sale this year in Cat 10, (and, barring a miracle, the last).
Though it could happen, a very attractive home on Sumo Noveno went to contract today listed at $1,475,000.

All Sales This Year in Cat 10  (link expires 1/14/16)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s happening in Catalina Foothills Subdivisions, part 2

Because market conditions vary widely from one area of the foothills to another, though much of the variance is due to price alone, it’s important to be aware of how the market is doing in the areas and subdivisions that interest you.  This a continuation of where I left off last week

Click any subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – single family & townhomes.

Ventana Country Club
26 for sale at $1,224,187/$924,000  (avg/median list price)
5 in contract at $894,779/$979,000  (avg/median list price)
11 sold in the last 6 months at  $756,000/$725,000  (avg/median sold price)
=  a hefty 14 month supply of homes in Ventana and avg/med list prices that tower over sold prices. Why, supply & demand, a big supply and a small demand for higher priced homes while those at lower prices are selling well.

Cimarron
9 for sale at $633,644/$599,900
2 in contract at $641,950/$641,950
5 sold in the last 6 months at $586,500/$489,000
= an 11 month supply of homes, but, at least, with list & sold prices fairly in sync.

Fairfield/Sunrise
11 for sale at $362,900/$339,900
5 in contract at $476,000/$510,000
12 sold in the last 6 months at $485,253/$476,000
= a perfectly balanced market with a 5+ month supply of homes and with more higher priced, than lower priced, homes selling - the opposite of most other foothills communities. (higher priced for Fairfield, that is)

 Coronado Foothills Estates
11 for sale at $734,391/$650,000
2 in contract at $637,450/$637,450
16 sold in the last 6 months at $635,906/$562,500
= a skimpy 4 month supply of homes. Buyers like views and Coronado has them up the wazoo

Finisterra
4 for sale at $910,750/$924,500
1 in contract at $1,649,000
5 sold in the last 6 months at  $555,409/$454,175
= a very comfy 5 month supply of homes but with a not so comfy gap between the price of those for sale and sold.

Sabino Mountain
10 for sale at $458,330/$386,750
1 in contract at $370,000
3 sold in the last 6 months at $745,667/$430,000
= a burdensome 20 month supply of homes

Hacienda del Sol Estates
2 for sale at $1,067,000/$1,067,000
0 in contract
1 sold in the last 6 months at $675,000
Kinda quiet in HDSE

At the risk of repeating myself - Starting next month the market will should may begin to pick up, even for the upper-end, as our high season kicks off here in the Catalina Foothills.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Cobblestone holding its own during the $million+ slump

3200 E Crest Shadows Drive sold the other day for $1,090,000 ($241/sf) from a $1,250,000 list  in 141 days. And a few weeks ago 7460 N Catalina Ridge Drive sold for $1,350,000 ($280/sf).

3200 E Crest Shadows Dr Tucson, AZ 85718

All told this year, that’s 5 sales for Cobb with 3 of them at $1million+ and another, nipping at its heels, at $975,000. Last year Cobb had no sales at $1million+.

Throughout the Catalina Foothills there’ve been 32 sales at $1million+ this year,

Ventana CC, usually one of the top 2 players in that market, has had 3 at $1million+
Pima Canyon,  ditto, has had 1
Skyline CC, 3
La Paloma, none
Finisterra, 2
Canyons, having its best year ever, 3 mega $$$$ sales
Cat 10, 2
Alta Vista, 2
Sin Vacas, 1
Sabino Mountain, 1 
Cat 9, 1 
etc.,

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s happening in Catalina Foothills subdivisions

As we enter the final countdown to years end here’s a summary of activity in some of our favorite subdivisions.

Shadow Hills 
6 homes for sale at $494,500/$489,000 avg/median list price
3 in contract at $669,667/$599,000  avg/median list price
18 sold in the last 6 months at $483,333/$491,000 avg./median sold price
= a lean 2 month supply of homes for sale and for sale and sold prices in sync = a sellers market

Sin Vacas
7 for sale at $800,214/$680,000
1 in contract at $449,000/$449,000 (at Villa Milano)
3 sold in last 6 months at  $713,333/$715,000
= a heavy 14 month supply of homes = a buyers market

Alta Vista
8 for sale at $769,250/$769,500
0 in contract
4 sold in last 6 months at $834,250/$891,000
= a heavy 12 month supply of homes = a buyers market

Catalina Foothills Estates (1-9)
35 for sale at $856,569/$729,000
9 in contract at $812,758/$619,025
26 sold in last 6 months at $606,177/$541,000 
= an 8 month supply of homes = drifting into a buyers market, and with a large spread between the price of homes for sale and homes sold in CFE because the cheaper homes are outselling the costlier homes. What else is new.

Skyline Bel Air
3 for sale at $544,633/$469,900
3 in contract at $428,000/$425,000
8 sold in last 6 months at $499,550/$460,000
= a squeaky tight 2 month supply of homes = a strong sellers market in SBA

Pima Canyon
7 for sale at $1,531,286/$1,395,000
0 in contract
1 measly sale in the last 6 months at $1,450,000
= a whopping 42 month supply of homes for sale = PC’s slowest ever 6 months

Skyline CC
20 for sale at $1,096,025/$1,012,500
2 in contract at $894,500/$894,500
8 sold in the last 6 months at $740,125/$605,000
= a 15 month supply of homes for sale and a gaping gap between the price of those for sale and sold = a buyers market, particularly at the upper end. Why, because lower to mid priced homes are selling pretty OK, but higher priced homes are not - there are 10 for sale from $1,095,000 to $1,900,000.

La Paloma
27 for sale at $695,496/$649,000
  3 in contract at $376,300/$400,000
22 sold in last 6 months at $503,073/$489,550
= just over a 7 month supply, not bad at all. Except, of the 22 sold 18 went for $550k or less and just 4 more from $663,500 to $741,000. Leaving the 8 homes listed from $779,000 to $1,425,000 out in the cold. 

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
7 for sale at $1,296,286/$1,325,000
0 in contract
4 sold in last 6 months at $772,250/$720,000
= a 10+ month supply of homes and, once again, a chasm between the price of homes for sale and those that sold. 

Starting next month the market will should may begin to pick up, even for the upper-end, as our high season kicks off here in the Catalina Foothills. And we will likely see an increase in the number of homes for sale. Even, maybe, at the upper-end.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Open this Sunday

Please Stop by to see our new listing.
Sunday 11/22 from 1 – 4 PM

An architecturally significant, thoroughly restored and carefully updated Spanish Colonial that exudes the grace and charm of classic old foothills living. Its design was inspired by a home in Guanajuato, Mexico, and it is rich in historic architectural elements, details and artifacts from Guanajuato and historic Tucson sites.

5330 N. Via Alcalde
Tucson, AZ 85718

Built 1969, 1.37 acres, masonry stucco construction, 4361 sf, 4 Bedrooms/3.5 Baths, Living Room, Dining Room, Library, unique “rec room”, glorious patio spanning the south side, 2 car garage. $1,225,000. 2 additional and adjacent lots are also available.

There’s nothing else like it.

Listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman

John Schneider – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 271 – 4164
[email protected]

Caroline Freedman – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 405 – 1794
[email protected]

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

a nice sale for Cobblestone

7460 N Catalina Ridge Drive just sold for $1,350,000 ($280/sf) from a $1,450,000 list that was reduced from $1,625,000 when it started out one year ago. That may not be quick but as these things go it’s not too bad, and it’s also reasonably close to the list price – as these things go.
It’s more that I expected, my guesstimate was closer to $1.2.
But i have the comfort of knowing that Zillow also blew it at $1,142,255

This is the 4th sale in Cobb this year and also the highest priced sale, both in $$ amount and $/sf. Nothing sold in Cobb last year, but that’s probably because with 7 sales in 2013 there was nothing left to sell in 2014. Ha-ha

7460 N Catalina Ridge Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

good things take time

7431 N Secret Canyon Drive just sold for $2,037,500 ($212/sf) from a $2,195,000 list after starting out in late 2008 asking $6,450,000. Been on the market more or less continuously since then.

Terrific lot, incredible views and one very flashy house. A house more at home in Miami than Tucson, but there you go, it finally found a buyer. 

This is the 3rd sale in the Canyons this year, its best year ever.
But at $212/sf it’s also the cheapest $$/sf sale ever in the Canyons.

Zillow liked it at $3,277,078

 

 Bon Appétit!

 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

See it before it hits the MLS

An architecturally significant, thoroughly restored and carefully updated Spanish Colonial that exudes the grace and charm of classic old foothills living. Its design was inspired by a home in Guanajuato, Mexico, and it is rich in historic architectural elements, details and artifacts from Guanajuato and historic Tucson sites.

Here’s glimpse of the house and grounds,

Living Room

Living Room

 

 

 

 

 It’s perfectly sited on a hilltop lot in the old foothills to offer lush desert surroundings, privacy and enchanting city & sunset views.

5330 N. Via Alcalde
Tucson, AZ 85718

Built 1969, 1.37 acres, masonry stucco construction, 4361 sf, 4 Bedrooms/3.5 Baths, Living Room, Dining Room, Library, unique “rec room”, glorious patio spanning the south side, 2 car garage. $1,225,000. 2 additional and adjacent lots are also available.

Click HERE for an engaging and informative history of this home from its conception in the 1960’s to its more recent restoration.

Listed by John Schneider & Caroline Freedman
Contact us for showings before it hits the MLS

John Schneider – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 271 – 4164
[email protected]

Caroline Freedman – Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
520 405 – 1794
[email protected]

 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

how’s the market doing this year compared to last year

Let’s have a look at the important stuff, and with no charts, just hard numbers.
The following numbers are for single family homes SOLD UP TO $999,999 in the Catalina Foothills from January 1st thru October 15th for last year and this year.

	2014	2015	+/- %
# Homes Sold	593	657	+ 11%
Avg Sold Price	$435,270	$443,636	+  2%
Med Sold Price	$385,000	$405,000	+ 5%
Med $$/sf Sold	$157/sf	$160/sf	+ 2%
CDOM	60	66	+10

(CDOM, is Cumulative Days on Market - Lower is Better)

Those numbers are fairly benign – sales are up nicely and prices have edged up a little bit too. Nothing much to complain about. 

And the same comparison but this time for homes sold at $1,000,000 & UP

	2014	2015	+/-%
# Homes Sold	36	27	- 25%
Avg Sold Price	$1,344,750	$1,356,741	+ 0.89%
Med Sold Price	$1,202,500	$1,275,000	+ 6%
Med $$/sf Sold	$249/sf	$249/sf	0%
CDOM	150	182	+21%

OOPS, sorry, a lot of numbers up there but the most striking one is the number of homes sold, it’s so small. Barely 4% of the 684 homes sold this year. And this year it took 21% longer than last year to sell 25% fewer homes. And last year was nothing special, far from it. As a matter of fact we haven’t had a good year at $1million+ since 2007, when YTD 81 sold.

Anyway, one thing’s for sure, you have to be pretty special to sell in this market.
Have a look at the 27 homes that did make the grade - SOLD AT $1MILLION+ IN 2015

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

rolling the dice on prices, then and now

Perfectly situated to count the passing cars on Hacienda del Sol Rd on one side, and to oversee the comings and goings at the Eleven Arches entry/exit gate on the other, 3550 E Camino A Los Vientos  was listed for $2,450,000 in 2006. And after some time and no takers it dropped to $2,000,000 in early 2007, but that didn’t do it. So in a daring and counterintuitive move it was raised back up to $2,400,000. But incredibly enough, still no-go. So in 2008 it dropped back down to $1,999,000 and that eventually did the trick - it sold for $900,000 (yep $900k) in early 2009 as a short sale.  Boo-hoo.

Fast forward to now – it was listed for $1,325,000 this past May, had two price cuts to $1,275,000 and to $1,200,000 and sold today for $1,100,000 ($227/sf).
A fairly normal, uneventful and boring sale. 

Zillow was pretty close at $1,183,013. But once again Zillow doesn’t show the sale and shows that the listing was withdrawn today, 10/21. And of course it wasn’t. What did happen today is the listing changed status from Active Contingent to Pending and then to Sold. And the minute a listing changes from Active Contingent to Pending it disappears from public websites, including my own. I noticed this same pattern the other day when reporting recent sales. Which leads me to wonder if Zillow isn’t getting their listing info, or at least some of it, from public websites. Maybe even from mine, and not from a direct and paid for feed from the Tucson MLS. Wouldn’t that be a twist.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

another contemporary sells

Last sold in 2007 for $1,900,000 after 49 days, 7164 N Mercer Spring, Tucson, AZ 85718, sold yesterday for $1,460,000 ($248/sf) after 484 days. No surprise there, it sold for 23% less than 2007 which, oddly enough, is exactly where median sold prices are today vs 2007 – down 23%.

Nevertheless, it was listed in May 2014 for $1,895,000 and eventually dropped to $1,505,000, and that did the trick. It’s a dramatic, newer contemporary with astonishing views – because it is a true contemporary and they are rare in the foothills, I was more optimistic figuring it would sell sooner and for more $$$ - previously mentioned HERE soon after it was listed.  Zillow, on the other hand, was less optimistic, calling it at $1,293,377.

Despite the overall poor performance of the upper-end market newer contemporaries seem to be gaining in popularity and have done relatively well this year. There’s an exceptional Rick Joy contemporary in Pima Canyon that I’m betting will be the next to go.

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

a very good year for the Canyons

So far this year two homes have sold; one at $1,995,000 ($320/sf) and another at $2,400,000 ($377/sf). And the other day a home listed at $2,195,000 went to contract. And if it weren’t for a new listing that popped up yesterday, at $3,900,000, there would be nothing for sale.

Granted, the sales, contracts and new listings have been at greatly reduced prices from what they were originally listed at 3, 4 and 5 years ago. But now they’re selling.

And while the overall foothills upper-end market is having one of its worst years - isn't it ironic that the Canyons, the uber-luxe of the foothills upper-end, is having its best year in years.

 

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

duh, the economic gurus have finally realized

that the road to economic recovery in Arizona apparently does not go through Tucson.

From the AZ Daily Star

Economists: Pima County lagging badly in job growth

Data presented Thursday by a panel of state economists finds Pima County lagging the rest of the state in job growth.

How bad is Pima doing?

Overall, Arizona has recovered more than 250,000 jobs since the economy hit bottom five years ago. Put another way, four out of every five jobs are back.

But Pima County, which bottomed out employment-wise in July of 2011, has added only 15,500 jobs since then. That brings the county less than half way back to its employment peak of 387,000 in March 2007……

Read all about it - Economists: Pima County lagging badly in job growth

                           ………………………………………………………….

I touched on this subject a few times earlier this year though, selfishly, the thrust of my interest was in the lack of high paying jobs as they relate to the puny performance of the upper-end home market in the Catalina Foothills.

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

stuck between seasons

I just updated the Market Snapshot numbers and as you’ll see the MOI numbers are higher than they’ve been – even at under $1million - at over $1million they’re incalculable.

That’s because on the one hand contract and sales activity has slowed during this transitional time between summer and fall, and on the other new listings activity has picked up in anticipation of the snow birds arrival. 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

where are the $million+ homes selling this year, 9/30/15

It’s no secret that sales of Catalina Foothills homes at $1million and up have been lackluster for the past 6 or 7 years.

 

Unlike the market for homes priced under $1million, which has been on the rise since it hit bottom in 2009, sales at $1million and up have pretty much bumped along the bottom since then.

That said, 25 homes have sold at $1million+ so far this year, where are they selling.  
(click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – the listings are continuously updated)

In alphabetical order;

2 in Alta Vista @ $1,005,000 & $1,100,000

1 in Canyon Vista Estates @ $1,250,000

2 in the Canyons @ $1,995,000 & $2,400,000

2 in Catalina Foothills Estates 10 @ $1,050,000 & a spec home @ $1,600,000

1 in Catalina Foothills Estates 9 @ $1,090,000

1 gorgeous Joesler in Catalina Foothills Estates @ $1,950,000

1 in Cobblestone @ $1,200,000

1 incredible steal in Cobo Catalina Hills @ a measly $1,525,000 (sold in 09 @ $3.2)

1 spec home in Coronado Foothills Estates @ $1,020,000

2 in Finisterra @ $1,150,000 & $1,600,000

1 in Foothills ll @ $1,005,000

1 in Pima Canyon @ $1,450,000 (the lowest #’s ever for PC)

1 brand new gorgeous contemporary on Sabino Mt. @ $1,450,000

1 in Sin Vacas @ $1,275,000

3 in Skyline CC @ $1,000,000, $1,270,000 & a knock your socks off remodel @ $1,302,000

1 very attractive contemporary in an unsubdivided area east of Sabino Cyn Rd at $1,300,000

3 in Ventana CC @ $1,035,000, $1,350,000 and $1,700,000

And that’s it, 25 homes sold at $1million+. Last year at this time there were 31 sales.
73 remain for sale, at this pace, enough to last more than 2 years. 

Also notable in today’s numbers is that Pima Cyn sold just 1 home this year – while last year at this time 6 had sold. And Ventana, which is tied at 3 sales each with Skyline CC for top honors, sold 7 homes during the same period last year. 

See where are the $million+ homes selling this year for the September 2014 report.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s happening in Catalina Foothills subdivisions, part 3

This is a continuation of 2 previous posts; Part 1 is HERE & Part 2 is HERE
**the number of homes sold represents sales for the last 6 months.

Let’s start with a biggie, Flecha Caida

Flecha Caida covers a lot of ground; starting a little ways south of Sunrise Dr and continuing south nearly to River Rd, and stretching from just east of Swan to Craycroft and west of Swan to Alvernon Way. Homes in FC come in all shapes, sizes and were built from the 1950’s to the mid 2000’s.

12 homes for sale ($299,000 to $1,475,000) @ avg/median - $652,542/$517,250
  2 in contract ($241,000 & $367,000) @ avg/median - $304,000/$304,000
10 sold ($360,000 to $525,000) @ avg/median - $416,765/$409,450

FC is doing OK. 7 months inventory, 2 in contract. And homes listed up to about $550 - $600 should continue to sell well. But recent and historical sales in FC don’t bode well for higher priced homes, let’s say, from about $750,000 & up.

Since January 2012  69 homes have sold in FC –
66 of them sold from $200,000 to $550,000, plus 2 at $600,000 and 1 at $690,000. And that’s it, nothing higher. And it’s not for lack of trying. Homes have been listed from the $900’s to more than $2,000,000, but none have sold.

Skyline Country Club, location, location …, guard gated, the first golf course community developed in the Foothills features homes that were built from the 1960’s to the 2000’s - though the majority are 30 – 40 years, or more, old. But with some of the most magnificent view lots in the Catalina Foothills, and with the real estate bust more or less behind us, the pace of remodeling and renovation is on the rise in Skyline. And with the newly refurbished country club facilities and the bulk of the club’s financial woes on the mend Skyline CC is coming back stronger than ever.

17 homes for sale ($490,000 - $1,900,000) @ avg/median - $1,070,318/$945,000
  4 in contract ($599,999 - $1,000,000) @ $766,000/$732,000
11 sold ($500,000 - $1,302,000) @ $768,000/$650,000
But with 9 months inventory and, more importantly, a large gap between list and sold prices, the upper-end market in Skyline still has a ways to go.

Hacienda del Sol, guard gated during daylight hours – mechanical gate from dusk to dawn. Conveniently located off Hacienda del Sol Rd with homes built from the 1990’s well into the 2000’s.

2 homes for sale ($659,000 & $1,095,000) @ $877,000/$877,000
0 in contract
2 sold ($675,000 & $800,000) @ $737,500/$737,500

Foothills ll, gated, high up in the foothills off Alvernon Way north of Skyline Dr, often with good mountain and/or city views. Homes built from late 70’s to the mid 2000’s.

0 for sale 
1 in contract ($1,505,000) 
1 sold ($735,000)

Bellas Catalinas, gated, north of River Rd off Alvernon Way with homes built from the mid 90’s well into the 2000’s.

4 for sale ($541,000 to $1,175,000) @ $771,250/$684,500
1 in contract ($655,000)
5 sold ($625,000 to $720,000) @ $662,200/$661,000
A tidy 5 months inventory and, aside from the one home listed at $1,175,000, a tight grouping of list, in contract and sold prices.

Finisterra, guard gated, high up in the foothills off of Craycroft Rd north of Sunrise. With larger more $$$ homes at the top of Fin with some bordering the Coronado National Forest. Lower priced homes and townhomes located lower in the community.  Homes built from the early 80’s to 2013.

4 for sale ($445,000 to $1,150,000) @ $798,500/$799,500
0 in contract
6 sold ($380,000 to $1,600,000) @  $853,863/$769,500
Fin is doing just fine, 4 months inventory with homes selling at top to bottom prices.

Sabino Mountain, gated and located high on a ridge on the east side of the Catalina Foothills, all newer homes built from the early 2000’s to 2015 – and from 1600 to 7000 sq. ft.

5 for sale ($340,000 to $849,000) @ $480,800/$415,000
0 in contract  
6 sold ($319,000 to $1,450,000) @  $749,667/$722,500
5 months inventory with costlier homes selling very well.

Part 1 is HERE

& Part 2 is HERE

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

AZ Star on the Tucson Luxury Market

Last week I noted that luxury home sales in the Northwest are stronger than they are in the Catalina Foothills.

And, coincidentally, today we have an article in the AZ Daily Star titled,
Luxury home sales in up Tucson — see what $1M will buy
(I assume they meant – Luxury home sales up in Tucson ….)

And without getting into the gory details the Star more or less comes to the same conclusion, stating;
“Traditionally, the luxury market has been concentrated in the Foothills, but now about one-third of those sales are on the northwest side, such as the Residences at The Ritz.”

Also, note that The Star uses $1M as the price point for Luxury in their headline but $800,000 as the price point in the article when touting market growth. And no mention of how the Luxury Market in the Northeast, or anywhere else, is doing. Which btw, at $1M+, YTD last year, 5 homes sold in the NE and YTD this year, 4 sold. So no improvement there.

And we know the Luxury Market is not up in the Catalina Foothills, but no mention of that either.

And yet the Star’s headline reads, “Luxury home sales up in Tucson …”, which of course just might lead you to believe that the entire Tucson Luxury market is up.  
Even though it’s not. And there’s nothing in the article to explain that the Luxury Market is only up in the Northwest. I wonder why?

With those nitpicks aside, read all about it;
Luxury home sales in up Tucson — see what $1M will buy
 Arizona Daily Star
By Gabriela Rico

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

the luxury market is younger and stronger in the Northwest than in the Foothills

Northwest
41 single family homes currently listed for sale at $1,000,000 & up
21 have sold since Jan 1, which works out to a current 15.6 month supply of homes
the 21 homes that sold sold at an average of $355/sf.

Catalina Foothills
76 single family homes currently listed for sale at $1,000,000 & up
25 have sold since Jan 1, which works out to a current 24 month supply of homes
the 25  homes that sold sold at an average of $259/sf – 27% less than those in the NW.

Why is that. Just guessing, but I think it may have something (or a lot) to do with age.

Northwest
of the 21 homes sold 2 were built in 1984 and 1998
and 19 were built from 2001 to 2015. Median age was 2008
Median age of the 41 currently for sale is 2006

Catalina Foothills
of the 25 homes sold 15 were built from 1936 to 1998
and 10 were built from 2000 to 2015. Median age was 1995
Median age of the 76 currently for sale is 1997

Age before beauty does not apply in housing

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

what’s happening in Catalina Subdivisions, part 2

In case you have just tuned in this is a continuation of an earlier post done a few days ago

**the number of homes sold represents sales for the last 6 months.
Click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale – continuously updated and up to the minute up-to-date.

Fairfield/Sunrise, you name it F/S has it. From 1500sf townhomes to 4000+sf SFR’s. In its various guises it’s attractive to empty nesters, snow birds, families and first time buyers.
And it covers a lot of ground too, spreading from just west of Kolb Rd all the way to Craycroft, with homes built from the 70’s – 90’s. Sticking with Single family homes there are;

11 homes for sale ($225,000 to $530,000) @ avg/median - $391,455/$349,000
3 in contract ($500,000 to $634,000) @ avg/median - $569,833/$575,000
15 sold ($275,000 to $635,000) @ avg/median - $468,227/$475,000
Another performer, with a lean 4.4 months of inventory and the prices for homes in contract and sold far higher than those of the homes for sale. Now that’s unusual. Whereas, back in March it was just the opposite – with high priced listings and low priced sales.

Pima Canyon, the newest upper-end gated community in the foothills with, of course, the newest homes - homes built from 2000 to 2015. Very popular with 2nd home owners, retirees, families with kids and empty nesters. So, very popular. But less popular this year.

5 for sale ($1,195,000 to $2,600,000) @ $1,657,800/$1,400,000
0, zip, zilch. Nothing in contract
2 sold ($975,000, $1,450,000) @ $1,212,500/$1,212,500
For a not so tidy 15 month supply of homes. 2015 has not been good to PC. Back in March when it was sitting on 14 months inventory I ventured; ‘Given PC’s track record of coming out at the top of the heap for high-end home sales I’m going to assume that this is just a temporary setback’.   So much for that.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
Guard gated, homes on 1.3 acre or larger lots, built from the late 80’s into the 2000’s, many on private hilltops with city and/or mountain views.

4 for sale ($995,000 to $1,795,000) @ $1,327,500/$1,260,000
2 in contract ($799,950 & $1,089,000) @ $944,475/$944,475
6 sold ($599,000 to $1,600,000) @ $866,500/$700,000
Chin-chin! a trim and tidy 4 months inventory. But with the price of homes listed far outstripping the price of those in contract and sold, the alleged 4 months inventory is strictly on paper, while in reality it may turn out to be just a tad longer. 

the Canyons
Ultra-luxe, guard gated, tucked away at the highest reaches of the Catalina Foothills with some of the highest prices to match.

2 for sale ($2,195,000 & $7,900,000) @ $5,047,500/$5,047,500
0 in contract
2 sold ($1,995,000 & $2,400,000) @ $2,197,500/$2,197,500
A fairly fantastic year for the Canyons. It wasn’t that long ago when it was wallowing in unsold homes and those that had sold went for peanuts v. list prices.

Pinnacle Ridge
homes built in the 2000’s by A.F. Sterling, lots approx 1/2 acre +/-, one and two story homes, very popular with families, very convenient to the retail plaza at Swan & Sunrise and Catalina Foothills high school, some homes with good mountain views, gated. Location, nicely built and appointed newer homes, district 16, the 21st century version of Shadow Hills.

2 for sale ($750,000,$825,000) @ $787,500/$787,500
1 in contract ($580,000)
4 sold ($630,000 to $900,000) @ $763,750/$762,500
You couldn’t ask for anything more – a 3 month supply of homes with list and sold prices singing the same tune.

Coronado Foothills Estates
High in the foothills with the potential for gorgeous city and mountain views, very convenient location to Swan/Sunrise shopping, homes built from early 1960’s to current day. A wide variety of sizes, styles and prices with many older homes offering ample opportunity for fix-up on great view lots. District 16 schools, not gated.

12 for sale ($384,500 to $1,500,000) @ $718,150/$584,200
4 in contract ($274,900 to $825,000) @ $497,225/$444,500
11 sold ($385,000 to $1,020,000) @ $659,818/$699,000
Another good news story with just over 6 months inventory and list and sold prices in sync.

La Paloma CC
In the last 12 years La Paloma has spread its wings and been developed far beyond its original borders, which included the subdivisions of La Paloma Ridge Estates, Las Palomitas, Paloma del Sol and Vista Serena on the north side of Sunrise Dr and La Paloma Estates on the south side. And that was it.

That is, until the early 2000’s when AF Sterling stepped in and developed La Paloma, a long single street, Placita Pajaro, that juts north just past the entrance to La P on the north side of Sunrise. And at about the same time, on a large tract of land on the south side of Sunrise, they developed the Villages 1, 2, 4 & 5 at La Paloma. And they sold like wild fire. And for good reason, there was nothing else like it in the foothills. Nothing, with new, well built homes in a super convenient, central foothills location on small, easy care lots in a guard-gated community, and all with the name La Paloma. Which couldn't hurt.

Looking at the more recently developed areas - La Paloma and the Villages 1,2, 4 & 5.
7 for sale ($400,000 to $699,000) @ $543,929/$499,500
2 in contract ($485,000 to $549,000) @  $517,000/$517,000
7 sold ($385,000 to $530,000) @  $476,143/$505,500
So a perfect 6 months inventory with list and sold prices in reasonable agreement.

And the original sections of La P, the Ridge Estates, etc. on the north side and La Paloma Estates on the south.
11 for sale ($745,000 to $1,425,000) @ $1,039,273/$995,000
1 in contract ($800,000) huh, 1 in contract,
6 sold ($489,100 to $937,500) @ $693,850/$680,750
Nothing perfect here, not unless you’re waiting in the wings for a deal to appear. An 11 month supply of homes and list and sold prices that are nearly as far apart as Venus and Mars (119,674,400 kilometers, give or take)

Enough is enough, more to come.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Joesler still brings home the bacon

though a bit less than hoped 
A 1936 mud adobe Joesler located in the old Catalina Foothills, 5645sf (including guest house) on 13 acres and listed for $2,750,000 ($487/sf) sold today for $1,950,000 ($345/sf) after 574 days. It was also listed for $2,200,000 with 8 acres.

5353 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718, 

 

This the 11th Joesler to sell since January 2012 and by far the largest in size of the house, the land and the price. The other 10 sold from $399,000 to $895,000.
3 Joeslers remain for sale from $1,100,000 to $3,250,000. Call if you are interested.

Zillow absolutely muffed it at $1,200,640.

5353 N Camino Escuela, Tucson, AZ 85718
 

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

buyers and sellers want to know, how’s the market doing

Someone asked me that recently and I said;
It’s selling well, relative to recent years at less than 1$million and not selling well at all at 1$million+ and UP, with prices rising ever so slowly. (and yes, this is treading old ground but there is some new material that may surprise you)

Here’s why I said that;

For homes listed up to $999,999; more single family homes have sold from January thru July this year than in any year (except for 2013) since 2005 – the peak year for sales. 
Thru July 2005 there were 669 sales, this year there were 501. So we’re climbing but still 25% below the peak.

And looking at it that way you can easily dismiss the peak years as an aberration, a quirk -  brought on by easy money which lead to the irrational exuberance that sent sales thru the roof – and therefore see today’s numbers as more normal and sustainable. And that may be.

But there’s more to it. Those peak year sales were not just a boom-time phenomena. Being so fixated as I am (and many of us are) on the boom years I tend to forget that more homes sold in the pre-boom years, the so-called ‘normal’ years before the boom, from 1998 – 2003 than are selling today ,12 to 17 years later.
Here are the number of  homes sold up to $999k January thru July;
1998 – 589
1999 – 663
2000 – 640
2001 – 600
2002 – 568
2003 – 645
2015 – 501

Ain’t that a kick in the pants – more sales in 1998 than today. And virtually the same sales in 1999 as in 2005, the peak with 669 sales. But of course $999k was worth more and bought more house in 1998 – 2001 than it does today. But even so, if I include sales at all prices, the noted pre-boom years are still way ahead of sales today.  And equally mindboggling is the slowdown in sales has occurred in these recent years when baby boomers were (supposedly) retiring in droves and have by now (supposedly) accumulated the funds to acquire 2nd homes and retirement homes, in droves. Perhaps so, but where are they.

On the bright side sales are up 60% from their bottom in 2009 (311 sales thru July 09) v. 501 this year, with no signs yet of a pullback - though the current stock market retreat may prove otherwise.

Sales at $1million+ and UP have been, and continue to be, another matter. They STINK and have stunk for the last 6 or 7 years. And historically they had a very short sweet spot, a blip really, from 2004 – 2007, and have fizzled ever since.

And sales at $1million+ were nothing to write home about during the pre-boom years either.
Here are the number of homes sold at 1$million+ January thru July;
1998 – 4
1999 – 5
2000 – 12
2001 – 17
2002 – 14
2003 – 16
2015 – 21
So you have to ask yourself if the boom-time bubble of $million+ home sales was just that, a one time bubble that burst and blew away, far, far away. 

As for sold prices, we know they are trending upward but at a snails pace. And as I inferred the other day it looks like it could be eons, if ever, before they get back to where they were during the boom.  

 
And just to rub it in I just noticed this article on CNNMoney 
Home prices are soaring across the country, increasing in 93% of markets in the U.S., according to the National Association of Realtors, with 19% experiencing double-digit growth.

For the record, the median price of single family homes in the Catalina Foothills is $549,000. Compare that to the locations and median prices listed in the article and ask yourself,  are we really on a competitive footing with places like San Diego. Which perhaps answers the question of where all the baby boomers are headed, surf’s up.

That’s how the market is doing. Good, in a grudging sort of way, for homes under 1$million.

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

Best Deal on a Newer Luxury Home in the Catalina Foothills

Bar None.
6700 N Saint Andrews Drive, impeccably designed and custom built by John Kline in 2009, all masonry construction, over 6,700 sf, 4 BR/5 Baths + 2 half baths, plus office & detached guest house on a 1.5 acre city, mountain, & golf course view lot in Skyline Country Club. Pool/Spa, 3+ car garage, single story, no interior steps. Pure quality through and through, it’s the real thing. 

It just dropped to a range price of $1,800,000 - $2,500,000.
At $1.8 it’s $266/sf.

 

More info, more pictures
6700 N Saint Andrews Drive, Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Lynn Kline Realty)

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

resetting prices at Ventana Canyon Mountain Estates

6755 N Hole in the Wall Way, a 2002 built, 6400sf, 2 story soft contemporary on approx 1 acre, sold for $2,495,000 in 2006, $2,200,000 in 2010 and for $1,700,000 today.  

And they didn’t let it go easily either; it was listed for $2,200,000 in October 2013 but didn’t draw a buyer until it dropped to $1,799,000 this April.

Yet median sold prices in the foothills are virtually the same today as they were in 2010. So going by the numbers it should have sold for about $2,200,000, which is what it sold for in 2010. But it sold for half a mil less. Why?

I touched on this in an earlier post, asking;
Why are upper-end homes selling for less today than they did in earlier years, even though foothills average/median sold prices are higher today than they were back then.

And I answered - the market for homes listed at $1million+ has been bumping along the bottom since 2009 and so far this year has the lowest sales since 2008.  So  in order to sell (aside from pulling their hair out) many sellers of upper-end homes must be willing to price their homes to sell in today’s upper-end market, such as it is, (big supply – little demand). And ignore the fact that average/median sold prices are UP from when they bought 4 or 5 or even 10 or 12 years ago. Because the rise in prices has everything to do with price increases for homes listed and sold in the $100,00 to $900,000 range – which is about 96% of all sales – and nothing to do with $$million+ sales. Sad, but true.

FYI - Zillow was in at $1,982,201

The buyers did quite well and the sellers did the best they could.

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to find your Catalina Foothills home

maybe we just need some fresh blood to reinvigorate the market

As I may have mentioned once or twice in the past, the $$million market is not selling very well. Nonetheless, this week 3 new listings came on the market priced at $1,449,950, $2,195,000 and $3,900,000. Who knows, maybe that’s just what we need,

See them at Just Listed and set the Sort By tab to - List Price (High to Low)

see TheFoothillsToday.com
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 7/27 – 8/2

From Monday July 27th through Sunday August 2nd  22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ. (link expires 9/6/15)

18 were priced from $210,000 to $595,000
3 from $725,000 to $825,000
1 at $1,100,000

Impressive numbers for the dead of summer.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

 

what’s ailing the Catalina Foothills luxury home market

At a glance, the Catalina Foothills Luxury Home market;

As you can see from the chart even fewer $$million homes have sold during this Jan – July period than in all the lean years since 2009 - when we thought we’d hit bottom and there was nowhere to go but up.

 

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The Luxury market elsewhere; 

As Luxury Market Soars, A Moment for Concern
From; NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Exceptional growth has been the storyline of the luxury real estate market the past few years. No other price segment has rebounded from the housing crash with as much gusto as that of million-dollar-plus homes, which are selling at twice the historical average. According to the National Association of REALTORS®, home sales above $1 million in 2014 grew nearly 9 percent over 2013 — more than double any other price point. And the conservative expectation is that luxury sales will at least repeat that performance this year. Nearly every major city — if not all of them — shattered its record for most expensive residential sale in the last year, and each one has a listing today that, if purchased at asking price, would break it again.

There’s no doubt the industry has a lot to celebrate because of the roaring success on the top end of sales. But underneath that fanfare appears to be a little bit of nervousness that only a few will openly — or even hesitantly — admit. Is the upward trajectory of high-end sales and prices rising too fast?

Continue reading;  As Luxury Market Soars, A Moment for Concern
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The List: Home is where the luxury is

Phoenix Business Journal

By Jesse A. Millard

In Phoenix, recent sales of luxury homes have been strong, according to Michael Orr, director of the Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice at Arizona State University.

“It’s been the best period since 2006,” he said, adding that prices in the luxury market have drifted upward, though not dramatically.

Continue reading; The List: Home is where the luxury is

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RE/MAX Luxury Report on Metro Chicago Real Estate: Changing Market for Million-Plus Homes Evident in April-June Sales Results

CHICAGO, Aug. 4, 2015 /PRNewswire/ -- The market for homes selling at a million dollars or more in the metropolitan Chicago area is showing signs of geographical expansion even as sales activity rose to a new post-Great Recession high for the second quarter of the year. The quarterly RE/MAX Luxury Report on Metro Chicago Real Estate pegged second quarter luxury sales at 737 units, 20 percent more than during the same period last year and the most second-quarter sales since RE/MAX began tracking luxury market data in 2009.

The median sales price for homes selling for a million or more was $1,350,000 during the second quarter, unchanged from the 2014 results. The RE/MAX report is a quarterly analysis of $1-million-plus home sales in Cook, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, Lake, McHenry andWill counties.

While prices in the luxury segment were fairly stable, the geography of the luxury home market showed signs of expansion.  

Continue reading:   RE/MAX Luxury Report on Metro Chicago Real Estate

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Million-dollar home prices soften

Robert Frank | @robtfrank
CNBC

The wealthy continued their buying spree of luxury homes in the second quarter, but there are signs that prices may be nearing a top.

The CNBC Luxury Real Estate Report, compiled by RedFin, found that sales of homes priced at $1 million or more increased 14 percent over the same quarter a year ago to 24,064 homes. Sales of homes priced at $5 million or more jumped 20 percent to 584. (The report tracks sales in major metro areas measured by RedFin, but not New York City).

Still, prices for luxury real estate seem to be getting a bit rich, even for the rich. Prices for million-dollar-plus homes were flat, and prices for homes priced at $5 million or more fell 1.2 percent. The decline marks the second-straight quarter of price drops.

Continue reading; Million-dollar home prices soften

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Seattle’s Luxury Homes Get a Tech Boom Boost
By ALINA DIZIK

July 9, 2015
WSJ.com

The technology boom is pushing its way north up the Pacific Coast, boosting real-estate prices, sparking neighborhood squabbles and creating new demand for luxury homes asking $1.5 million or more.

Continue reading; Seattle’s Luxury Homes Get a Tech Boom Boost

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Sacramento-region luxury home market heating up
BY MARK GLOVER
The Sacramento Bee

The Sacramento region’s upscale home market continued to heat up in this year’s second quarter.

There were 166 closed luxury home sales in the greater Sacramento region in this year’s second quarter, a 37 percent increase over the previous year, according to Lyon Real Estate.

Lyon called it the strongest quarterly showing in the high-end segment since the summer of 2007. Lyon’s report on the region’s upscale homes – those priced at $900,000 or more – was based on data from the Sacramento-based real estate tracking firm Trendgraphix Inc.

“Luxury momentum is very strong and likely to continue through summer,” said Lyon President Pat Shea.

Continue reading: Sacramento-region luxury home market heating up            

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Vancouver Luxury Demand Prompts Increase in Home Flipping

BloombergBusiness
by Katia Dmitrieva

Demand for luxury homes in Vancouver is so high that shoppers are willing to pay a premium for residences that already have buyers, spurring people with deals in place to flip the properties.

Rising demand has led to an increase in bidding wars, more sales over asking price and a greater number of “contract assignments,” where buyers sell their rights to a home before completing their purchases, Sotheby’s International Realty Canada said Thursday. In the first half of 2015, 2,465 Vancouver homes sold for C$1 million ($785,000) or more, up 48 percent from a year earlier, the brokerage said in a midyear report on luxury real estate.

“The person who wins the bid says, ‘Listen, there are two other people here who desperately want that home and will pay C$500,000 more,’” Ross McCredie, chief executive officer of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, said in a telephone interview from Vancouver. Losing bidders often offer 20 percent more than the list price, and the buyer flips it for even more, he said. “We’re seeing it more and more.”

Continue reading: Vancouver Luxury Demand Prompts Increase in Home Flipping

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So why are so many other luxury markets doing so well while we continue to stumble along the bottom. 

In the past I’ve mentioned that Tucson lacks a growing industry to provide high-paying jobs and therefore the upper-end market is a  largely dependent on the whims of discretionary buyers - buyers of 2nd homes or retirement homes. Buyers who can afford to wait until everything is just so before they buy. And who are aware that there is little competition for the many upper-end homes for sale.

And that is true. But it was also true in 2004 – 2007 and the luxury market was going gangbusters back then. What changed.

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to find your Catalina Foothills Home