The Catalina Foothills

The First 6 Months; Catalina Foothills Single Family Home Sales & Sold Prices

The following charts track single family home sales & sold prices in the Catalina Foothills for January - June of each year from 2004 to 2017.

First up, the number of homes sold up to $999,999

For the first 6 months, sales this year are UP 8.4% over 2016 and are higher than every year since 2005.

Next up, the number of homes sold at $1,000,000 or more

 
 For the first 6 months, sales at $1,000,000+ are UP 24% over 2016 and are higher than every year since 2008. For the first time in years we have now had 2 years in a row of rising sales. However, with 73 homes still for sale and 31 sold in the last 6 months, it is still a market that has a long way to go.

Finally, Median sold prices for Catalina Foothills homes.

Median sold prices continued to rise in June. They are UP 7% over this May and UP almost 4% over June 2016. And for the first 6 months sold prices this year are UP 8.4% over Jan – June 2016. And they are higher than any Jan – June period since 2008. So no matter how you look at it, sold prices are UP.

The May report is HERE

A very positive and encouraging 6 months for Catalina Foothills home sales.

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Fun facts about the Tucson $1,000,000+ home market

Let's first look at the three main areas where $1,000,000+ homes sell. The following chart shows the number of homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the first 6 months of each year, in the Catalina Foothills, in the Northwest including Oro Valley and Marana, and in the Northeast including Tucson CC.

area	2015	2016	2017
Catalina Foothills	15	25	31
Northwest	14	16	16
Northeast	3	3	3

  

 So, since 2015 sales in the Catalina Foothills have doubled while sales in the Northwest and Northeast have barely budged. 

For comparison, from January 1st - June 30th 2006, the peak year for $1,000,000+ home sales in Tucson
76 homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the Catalina Foothills - 145% more than sold this year
11 homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the Northwest - 31% less than sold this year. (due to the fact that the number of $1.0+ homes for sale has grown -  because so many $1.0+ homes and spec homes have been built in the NW since then, though not many more are selling) 
8 homes sold for $1,000,000 or more in the Northeast - 166% more than sold this year, but still small potatoes, a fraction of the market.

Currently, at $1,000,000 & UP;

• in the Catalina Foothills there are 74 homes for sale and 31 sold in the last 6 months, equals 14 Months Of Inventory, MOI.
• in the Northwest there are 53 homes for sale and 16 sold in the last 6 months, equals 20 MOI
• in the Northeast there are only 14 homes for sale but only 3 sold in the last 6 months, equals 28 MOI.
  Computed like this > ( # of homes for sale  ÷  # of homes sold in last 6 months X 6 (months) = the MOI ) 
  
  6 months of inventory is considered a normal, balanced market. Much less than that and it becomes a sellers market, while, with much more it becomes a buyers market.  MOI is a basic measure of recent supply and demand.
  So with MOI way above 6 months, all three areas are deep in buyers market territory, at least on paper they are. In real life, in the Foothills anyway, (I can't speak for the NE or NW)  the nicest, most desirable homes are not going for the deep discounts one might expect given the high MOI. 
  
  Of all the homes sold from Jan 1 - June 30th 2016, where were the top 10 highest priced sales located; in the Catalina Foothills, the Northwest or the Northeast. The envelope please,  
• 3 in the Northwest sold for; $3,000,000, $2,272,554 & $1,593,000
• 7 in the Catalina Foothills sold for; $2,800,000, $2,100,000, $1,800,000, $1,751,330, $1,750,000, $1,715,000 & $1,625,000
  
  Tidbit - I recently ran across an online article from the AZ Daily Star that purported to show where the top 25 highest priced sales occurred in 2016. And after a quick check I found that at least two sales in the Catalina Foothills that were conspicuous by their absence from the top 25 list. Sales that should have been included in the top 10, never mind the top 25, but were not included at all. Yet, oddly enough, quite a few much lower priced sales in the Northwest were included. Hmm! Oh well, who knows how or why. 
  
  Same exercise for this year, Jan 1 - June 30th 2017
• 5 in the Northwest sold for; $2,200,000, $1,768,000, $1,744,900, $1,500,000 & $1,412,500
• 5 in the Catalina Foothills sold for; $2,000,000, $1,960,000, $1,920,000, $1,647,313 & $1,500,000.
  
  
• That's it for now. 
  
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  to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 6/19–6/25/17

From Monday June 19th thru Sunday June 25th, 25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 7/28/17)

19 were priced from $230,000 to $569,000
5 from $609,500 to $849,900
1 mega deal at $2,495,000

So even with temps in 115 range buyers were out in full force.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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in contract last week, 6/12 – 6/18/17

From Monday June 12th thru Sunday June 18th, 26 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 7/21/17)

18 are listed from $238,000 to $598,000
6 from $600,000 to $985,000
2  at $1,179,000 & $1,199,000

A nice rise in the number of contracts from the previous 2 weeks.
With temps hovering around 115 this week I’m anxious to see how many agents and buyers braved our torrid temps to find a home.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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in contract the week of 6/5 – 6/11/17

From Monday June 5th thru Sunday June 11th, 22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ.

16 were priced from $197,500 to $585,000
  5 from $618,000 to $850,000
  1 at $1,475,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

When reviewing the previous weeks’ activity, which was meager relative to other recent weeks, I wondered if the market was slowing down as it usually does in summer. And here we have another week with fewer contracts and 100°+ temps. Say Hello to the summer market.

Along with fewer contracts, there are usually fewer new listings popping up in summer. And right now there are just 370 single family homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills – the lowest inventory this year.

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in contract the week of 5/29 – 6/4/2017

From Monday May 29th thru Sunday June 4th,  21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link will expire 7/12/17)

17 were priced from $245,000 to $599,000
  3 from $669,000 to $695,000
  1 at $1,647,313

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

A relatively meager week for contracts. I wonder, now that we are firmly in the heat of summer, is the market cooling or was it just one of those slow weeks.

One thing is for sure. More deals are falling thru these days than at any time I can remember. It’s happening mostly, but not exclusively, at the lower end of the market – up to $400 maybe $500k -  where the competition is fierce and the supply of good homes is low.

Often, buyers are putting in offers on homes after just a quick look and sometimes, without even a quick look, before they’ve even seen the home in person. Right, they’re putting in ‘sight unseen’ offers. In either circumstance once they lock it up and have a good look at it they may discover that it’s not what they thought or hoped it would be. And then the deal falls thru. Back to square one. So if you’ve missed out on a home that you like it may not be over, and it may be worth putting in a backup offer. The number I’ve heard bandied about for the percentage of deals falling thru is about 25%. That’s huge.

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The First 5 Months; Catalina Foothills Homes Sales & Sold Prices

The following charts track single family home sales & sold prices in the Catalina Foothills for January thru May of each year from 2004 to 2017.

First up, Homes Sold up to $999,999;

The beat goes on, sales continue to improve. Except for the 2014 drop, sales up to $999 have improved every year since 2010 and are now just 14% below the 2005 peak. 
                                 -------------------------------------------------

Sales at $1,000,000 & UP

Thru April sales at $1.0mil+ this year were neck n’neck with last year. But May came to the rescue - with 11 homes sold this May – sales this year are now up 36% over last year.

More homes sold at $1.0+  this May than in every May since 2005,(with the exception of May 2007 with the same 11 sales) – an encouraging bit of news for a market that’s been struggling for years.

How many more sold this May?
Here are the number of sales for each May since 2005;
2005 – 12 / 2006 -10 / 2007 – 11 / 2008 – 8 / 2009 – 3 / 2010 – 4 / 2011 – 4 / 2012 – 7 / 2013 – 4 / 2014 – 6 / 2015 – 3 / 2016 – 4.

At the risk of laying it on a bit thick because, well, it’s just one month, the days on market (DOM) before a home goes to contract and sells is also a pretty good guide to the demand and strength of a particular market.
The 11 homes sold this May were on the market 106 median DOM.
In 2006, at the tippy-top of the $$$$million+ buying frenzy the 10 homes sold in May were on the market 108 median DOM. May 2012 – 186 DOM. May 2014 – 214 DOM. And so on. 
                                ------------------------------------------------------

 

Median Sold prices thru May

Sold prices continue to hold their own. YTD Median sold prices are up 10% over last year and 19% since scrapping bottom in 2012.

All in all a very positive market report for 2017.

The April sales & sold charts are HERE

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in contract last week, 5/22 – 5/28/17

From Monday May 22nd thru Sunday May 28th,  31 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/30/17)

22 were priced from $244,000 to $599,900
8 from $639,000 to $949,000
1 at $1,100,000

100° in the shade and the market is still cooking.

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in contract last week, 5/15 – 5/21/17

From Monday May 15th thru Sunday May 21st,  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/23/17)

18 were priced from $179,900 to $599,000
5 from $650,000 to $995,000
2 at $1,195,000 & $1,250,000

In recent weeks I’ve noted that the number of contracts had dropped off a bit. However, with 25 contracts last week the numbers are up again. And so far this week, and it’s only 9:40am on Wednesday, there are already 20 homes in contract.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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tedious tidbits

More tidbits than you may care to know about the Catalina Foothills market, but … 

Today, there are nearly 14% fewer homes for sale, 403, than the 468 that were for sale at the same time last year
Yet, YTD 13% more homes have sold this year, 364, than YTD last year, 321.

At what prices are they selling?
This year;
$0 - $299k – 59 sold
$300 - $599K – 220 sold
$600 - $999k – 65 sold 
$1.0mil+ – 20 sold

Last year;
$0 - $299 – 81 sold 
$300 - $599k – 165 sold 
$600 - $999k – 58 sold 
$1.0mil+ – 17 sold

Dollar Volume of all homes sold;
This year - $179,926,566  - Up 16+% over
Last year - $154,436,840
 

YTD median sold price is $425,000 - Up 9% over $390,000 last year

YTD median sold $$/sf is $167 – was $163 last year

YTD they’re selling quicker this year, 37 median days on market v. 55 last year

# of Sales in the 3 zip codes that comprise the Catalina Foothills;
This year:
85718 – 179 sold
85750 – 149 sold
85704 – 36 sold

Last year;
85718 – 141 sold 
85750 – 133 sold
85704 – 47 sold


Median sold price by zip code;
This year:
85718 - $485,000 
85750 - $392,500
85704 - $340,000

Last year:
85718 - $489,000
85750 - $375,000 
85704 - $255,800

Was that fun or what. 

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in contract last week, 5/8 – 5/14/17

From Monday May 8th thru Sunday May 14th,  17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/15/17)

13 were priced from $139,900 to $589,000
4 from $600,000 to $895,000
And that’s it!

tidbit - the number of contracts are down a bit, again, and last week is the first week this year without a contract at $1million+ -  but Hey it's May. Have you noticed how many fewer shoppers there are in your favorite grocery store today than there were 1, 2 or 3 months ago. Despite our unusually balmy May weather many snowbirds have already flown the coop.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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in contract last week, 5/1 – 5/7/2017

From Monday May 1st thru Sunday May 7th,  20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/8/17)

11 were priced from $235,000 to $530,000
8 from $629,900 to $899,500
1 at $1,250,000

a somewhat slower week than we’ve come to expect,

The numbers for the previous weeks are HERE

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The First 4 Months; Catalina Foothills Homes Sales & Sold Prices

The following charts track single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills for January thru April from 2004 to 2017.

First up, Homes Sold up to $999,999

Sales continue their upward climb, we’re just an iota behind 2004 sales and are now within striking distance of sales at the tippy-top of the Happy Days market of 2005.
                                 ----------------------------------------------

Next, oops!, sales at $1,000,000+

Not such a breezy outlook for sales at $1,000,000+. We’ve lost ground. Thru March of this year sales at $1.0+ were ahead of last year and every prior year (except 2012) back to 2008. Now we’re tied with 2016 and, even, a few sales below where we were in 2010, 2012 and 2013.  Glory is fleeting. But it ain’t over til it’s over – there are 14 homes in contract listed from $1,049,000 to $2,175,000, and there are still 8 months to go.  So, we’ll see.

                              --------------------------------------------------

And Median sold prices

Sold prices this year continue to hold their lead over prior years, median sold prices this year are up 10% over last year and 20% above scrapping bottom in 2012. And they are higher than every year since 2008. No small feat.

For what it’s worth, 
This may be a little late, no kidding, but I just came across a forecast from Realtor.com for nationwide home sales in 2017. And guess what, Tucson is forecast to be one of the top10 housing markets (in the entire USA) based on price and sales gains in 2017. Little old Tucson

Tucson shares the top honors and limelight with the other top performers;
1. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz.; 2. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, Calif.; 3. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, Mass.-N.H.; 4. Sacramento–Roseville–Arden-Arcade, Calif.; 5. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.; 6. Jacksonville, Fla.; 7. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, Fla.; 8. Raleigh, N.C.; 9. Tucson, Ariz.; and 10. Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, Ore.-Wash.

Read all about it - Realtor.com® 2017 National Housing Forecast

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part 2, the market is stronger this year, right

This is a follow-up to part 1 of “the market is stronger …., and here we look at subdivisions located east of Swan Rd where, in theory, we should discover evidence of this years 10% rise in median sold prices that were not evident in subdivisions located west of Swan. 

The following figures are for single family homes sold from Jan 1 thru April 30th 2016 & 2017.
off we go,

Alta Vista
2016
3 homes sold at a median sold price of $575,000 in 130 median days on market (MDOM)

2017
4 sold at a median sold price of $857,500 in 138 MDOM – BINGO!, up 49% in AV.

Cimarron
2016
3 sold at $525,000 in 195 MDOM

2017
8 sold at $702,250 in 67 MDOM – Cim’s up 33%, we’re on a roll

Flecha Caida
2016
10 sold at $370,000 in 132 MDOM

2017
8 sold at $440,000 in 65 MDOM – up 19%, & quicker too.

Fairfield/Sunrise
2016
9 sold at $392,000  in 89 MDOM

2017
also 9 sold but at $455,000 in 53 MDOM – up 16%

Villages of Ventana
2016
3 sold at a cheap-cheap $272,500 in 6 MDOM

2017
3 sold at $375,000 in 3 MDOM – up 37%

Ventana Country Club (including all of its meandering and constituent subdivisions)
2016
11 sold at $720,000 in 85 MDOM

2017
10 sold at $637,500 in 4 MDOM – party pooper, down 11%

and, last but not least,
Sabino Mountain
2016
5 sold at $369,000 in 218 MDOM

2017
6 sold at $594,000 in 41 MDOM – up a whopping 61%

Well, there you have it, mystery solved. Median sold prices are UP UP UP east of Swan and they’re flat or down west of Swan. Why is that? Is it because buyers prefer the east side of the foothills and therefore there’s more demand. Well, sort of but not exactly.

My theory, it is not, per se, about a preference for the east side, it’s about the cost of homes east side v. west side. 

Homes on the east side of the foothills are generally cheaper than those on the west side. Generally, not absolutely, with Ventana being the most obvious exception. Said another way, for the same $$ amount you can get more house for your $$ on the east side than on the west side. And, and this is important, homes on the east side are, overall, also newer (or at least less old) than homes west of Swan. And that demand (and low supply) is driving up prices for lower priced homes on the east side.

Lower priced homes have been selling like crazy for  a few years now, the supply of homes priced up to $599k has been and continues to be (very low) in the 3 – 4 month range. While higher priced homes have not fared nearly as well, the inventory is higher and sales are not nearly as brisk. 

Got a different, better, more amusing theory, love to hear it.
Thanks, JS

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in contract the last 2 weeks, 4/17 – 4/30/2017

From Monday April 17th thru Sunday April 30th,  51 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 6/1/17)

40 were priced from $245,000 to $575,000
7 from $600,000 to $874,000
4 from $1,070,000 to $1,599,000

With just a 3 month supply of homes for sale homes priced up to $599,999 continue to be in very short supply. The middle of the market, from $600k to $999k is at 7 months inventory, a tad over 6 months, which is considered a normal balanced market. And while homes priced at $1million and Up are still bloated with inventory they continue going to contract at a healthy clip. See the Market Snapshot for a breakdown of contracts, sales and inventory by price range.

The numbers for the previous weeks are HERE

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the market is stronger this year, right

For the last few months I’ve gabbed about and posted data showing that sales and median sold prices are UP appreciably this year over last year and that homes are also selling faster this year. And it’s true, they are, but is it true across the board. Heck no.

Let’s have a look at how sales are doing in some of the more popular subdivisions across the Catalina Foothills. The following figures are for single family homes sold from Jan 1 thru April 30th each year.

Let’s start with,
Shadow Hills 
2016; 
8 homes sold at a median sold price of $462,500 in 19 median days on market (MDOM)

2017
7 sold at a median sold price of $500,000 in 35 MDOM

Skyline Bel Air
2016
2 sold at $408,500 in 18 MDOM

2017
11 sold at $402,000 in 13 MDOM

Foothills Clusters
2016
3 sold at $269,900 in 5 MDOM

2017
2 sold at $286,500 in 9 MDOM

Pima Canyon
2016
1 sold for $1,751,330 in 13 DOM (my listing)

2017
4 sold at $1,195,000 in 228 MDOM

Cobblestone
2016
1 sold for $1,350,000 in 67 DOM

2017
3 sold at  $1,075,000 in 38 MDOM

Sin Vacas
2016
2 sold at $666,660 in 202 MDOM

2017
4 sold at  $645,000 in 84 MDOM

La Paloma (including all of its meandering and constituent subdivisions)
2016
14 sold at $624,500 in 44 MDOM

2017
19 sold at $465,000 in 106 MDOM

Catalina Foothills Estates 1-9
2016
20 sold at $525,000 in 25 MDOM

2017
24 sold at $511,000 in 45 MDOM

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
2016
3 sold at $1,000,000 in 62 MDOM

2017
5 sold at $1,040,000 in 63 MDOM

Hacienda del Sol Estates
2016
3 sold at $895,000 in 14 MDOM

2017
nothing sold

Foothills ll
2016
nothing sold

2017
1 sold at $425,000 in 0 DOM

Pinnacle Ridge
2016
2 sold at $677,000 in 15 days

2017
1 sold at  $779,000 in 81 DOM

Skyline Country Club
2016
7  sold at  $600,000 in 64 MDOM

2017
9 sold at $500,000 in 2 (two) MDOM
earlier in the year I mentioned that fixer uppers were flying off the shelf in Skyline , and here they are.

Coronado Foothills Estates
2016
6 sold at $610,000 in 62 MDOM

2017
10 sold at $530,000 in 24 MDOM

The rise in sales is evident, even from this small sample, but obviously I haven’t yet tapped into the areas where prices are rising. Perhaps it’s all happening east of Swan. We’ll see, I’ll run through the subdivisions in that area in the next day or two.

Preliminary numbers for sales and prices Jan – April 2016 & 2017

2016 – 273 sold at median sold price of $389,900 in 54 MDOM

2017 – 319 sold at median sold price of $430,000 in 38 MDOM

That puts 2017 sales up a tad shy of 17% and median sold prices up 10%. So it's happening somewhere.

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in contract the last 2 weeks, 4/3 – 4/16/2017

From Monday April 3rd thru Sunday April 16th,  46 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 5/18/2017)

32 were priced from $175,000 to $589,000
10 from $600,000 to $950,000
4 from $1,049,000 to $2,175,000

Although a few less contracts than other recent weeks, likely due to people celebrating the Passover and Easter holidays, still a very respectable number of contracts across the very broad spread of Catalina Foothills home prices.The $2,175,000 contract is the first this year at $2mil+.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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The Big Picture; Catalina Foothills 1st Qtr. Home Sales and Sold Prices over the last 14 years

The following charts track 1st Qtr. single family home sales from 2004 to 2017.

First up, for Homes Sold up to $999,999
Look at that jump in sales this year, more homes sold in the 1st Qtr. of 2017 than any year except 2005.

 

Next Up are Homes Sold at $1,000,000 & UP, a still struggling segment of the market that appears to be making progress.  
A less impressive 1st Qtr. than for homes sold for less than $1mil, nevertheless, for the first time in years sales rose, rather then fell, two 1st Qtrs. in a row - 2016 & 2017.

Last year, atypically,  more homes sold at $1mil+ from July thru December (in the off season) than during our supposed high season of January thru June, resulting in 2016 racking up more sales at $1mil+ than any year since 2008.
Not like way-more, just some more.

And finally, the icing on the cake, rising median sold prices

Again, two consecutive 1st Qtrs. with rising median sold prices. And sold prices this year that are higher than any year since 2008. Yippee!

We may actually, finally, be getting out of the woods.

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How sweet it is, 1st Qtr Catalina Foothills home sales

Jan – Feb 2017 sales were running comfortably ahead of last years’ Jan – Feb numbers but the spike in sales this March has blown the doors off 2016 - 1st Quarter sales are now up 32% over 2016.

And we are finally seeing rising prices along with rising sales - 1st Quarter Median Sold prices are UP 11% over 1st Qtr 2016.

And more good news; 
the number of homes sold is small but 1st Qtr sales at $1,000,000+ are up 62% over 2016 (8 sold 1st Qtr. last year v.13 this year) – and 2016 was the best year in 8 years, with 53 sold, at $1,000,000+, in the Foothills.

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in contract last week, 3/27 – 4/2/2017

From Monday March 27th thru Sunday April 2nd,  28 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 5/6/17)

19 were priced from $239,900 to $594,950
  6 from $675,000 to $899,950
  3 from $1,190,000 to $1,595,000

Worth noting, they went to contract quite quickly,  in 36 median Days On Market.
Last year at this time they were going to contract in about 55 median DOM.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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Catalina Foothills March home sales

Closed sales for single family homes sold in March are still dribbling in but so far, with 95+% of March sales reported, March 2017 sales are UP 42% over March 2016 with median sold prices UP 13%.

Similarly, and more credible since monthly numbers are notoriously erratic, for the 1st Quarter, January – March 2017 sales are UP 31% over 2016 with median sold prices UP 10.7%.

All sales should be reported by the end of the week and at that time I will post the final numbers.

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in contract last week, 3/20 – 3/26/2017

From Monday March 20th thru Sunday March 26th,  30 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 4/28/17)

22 were priced from $195,000 to $599,000
6 from $600,000 to $948,900
2 at $1,395,000 & $1,895,000

A healthy haul for foothills home sellers.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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where are $$/sf sold prices headed

3 sales caught my eye yesterday because the $$/sf sold prices seemed high.

In Alta Vista, 6502 N Placita Alta Reposa, Tucson, AZ 85750 closed for $765,000 ($243/sf). And when I saw $243/sf it struck me as high for AV. So I checked, and it is high, it’s higher than the 14 other sales in there since January 1, 2016. The average for the 14 is $201/sf.

 

The same in Cimarron at 5588 E Paseo Cimarron, Tucson, AZ 85750 . It closed  for $889,500, which itself is at the very high-end for Cimarron, and $240/sf, which is way high for Cim - with 27 sales since 1/1/16 the average is $177/sf and the next highest is $215/sf with the great majority under $200.

And one more in Catalina Foothills Est 2, 4905 N Camino Antonio, Tucson, AZ 85718 sold for $1,325,000 ($291/sf) – the highest of 21 sales in the last 2+ years with the next highest at $255/sf and the next highest sale price at $912,500.

And with 3 high $$/sf sales in one day I wondered what was happening with overall $$/sf sold prices,  so I pulled median $$/sf sold prices for the entire foothills single family home market for January 1st thru March 27th;

2015 -  $155/sf

2016 - $159/sf

2017 - $163/sf

$$/sf sold prices are rising, but overall they’re rising gently. However, results in your area will likely vary, and perhaps vary a great deal, from the overall numbers.

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in contract last week, 3/13 – 3/19/2017

From Monday March 13th thru Sunday March 19th,  24 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 4/21/17)

21 were priced from $209,000 to $545,000
2 at $645,000 & $689,000
1 at $1,390,000

The most desirable and well priced homes continue going to contract very quickly,  11 of the 24 homes noted above went to contract after just 1 to 10 days on the market.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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Ventana Canyon Golf Villas have recovered nicely

During the 2006 spring season, when prices peaked, 5 golf villas sold for a median sold price of $595,000.

Six years later, in 2012, when prices hit bottom in the foothills, 9 golf villas sold for a median sold price of $350,000.

And so far this year 4 golf villas have sold for a median sold price of $575,000. And they went quick too, 3 of them sold after just 1, 3 and 4 days on the market.

The golf villas, which sell almost exclusively from January to June, are perhaps the most seasonal single family homes sold in the Foothills. But, unfortunately, there are none for sale at this time.

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we know the overall market is doing well, but is it doing well across the board

184 single family homes have sold this year in the Catalina Foothills.

Here’s a breakdown by price range of those 184 sales;
MOI = months of inventory, a basic measure of supply & demand (6 MOI is considered a normal balanced market, much more and it tilts into a buyers market, much less and you’re entering a sellers market)

List Price	# of homes sold	Median Days on Market	Sold to List Price Ratio	# homes for sale	MOI	# homes in contract
$0 -$199,999	2	9	98.5	1	1.7	1
$200 - $399,999	71	31	98.7	76	3.7	52
$400 - $599,999	70	87	96.5	102	5	48
$600 - $799,999	28  (oops)	54	97.2	93	11.6	15
$800 - $999,999	5  ( “)	306 (ouch!)	96.8	47	33	7
$1.0 - $1,249,999	7	112	97	36	18	4
$1.250 - $1,499,999	1	1,086	94.2	24 (uh oh)	?	5
$1.500-$1,749,999	0			7	?	0
$1.750 - $1,999,999	0			10	?	1
$2.0 & UP	0			17	?	0

Nope, it is definitely not doing well across the board. On the bright side there are a slew of homes in contract, even some up to $1.5, so in the weeks ahead we will see some improvement in the sold numbers. Above $1.5, who knows.

Though, it is also true, there’s usually more window shopping and tire kicking at the upper-end before buyers are ready to tie the knot, so all is not lost there either. We’ll see. But let’s face it, it is very unlikely that all, or even most, of the homes listed above $1.0mil are going to sell this season, or this year, or ...

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in contract last week, 3/6 – 3/12/2017

From Monday March 6th thru Sunday March 12th,  27 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 4/14/17)

22 were priced from $250,000 to $599,999
  3 from $699,000 to $869,900
  2 at $1,225,000 & $1,895,000

PS – the $1.895 listing was on the market just 6 days

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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we finally cracked 400

that’s 400+ single family homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills. 

We haven’t had 400 homes for sale in the foothills since last August. That’s because in September, instead staying in slow summer mode, as it usually does, the market took off and continued on its spree into October, November and even December.

And despite all the new listings that have come on this year the many contracts and sales have, until now, kept the inventory under 400. But the word’s out, and sellers are now coming out of the proverbial woodwork to list their homes and get in on the action.

Check out the Market Snapshot for a quick look at the current market, with 414 homes for sale v. 511 at this time last year.

No matter how you look at it – the number of homes for sale, the number in contract and sold, the days on market to contract  – this years market is a stronger sellers market than we’ve seen in years. That strength is most evident for homes priced up to about $700,000. Above $700 it is not quite as robust but is still stronger than recent years.

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in contract last week, 2/27 – 3/5/2017

From Monday February 20th thru Sunday February 26th,  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 4/08/17)

20 were priced from $219,900 to $554,900
4 from $785,000 to $925,000
1 at $1,400,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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the $1million+ market this year

14 homes have gone to contract listed from $1,000,000 to $1,895,000
3 of those in contract have sold + 2 more sales from late 2016 contracts, from $1,040,000 to $1,177,500.

So 16 high-end homes either in-play or sold in a little over 2 months, impressive.

And because high-end homes were going to contract at a pretty quick clip during the first 6 weeks of the year (I’m guessing) more sellers decided to strike while the market is hot and list their homes this year – bringing 33 new listings to market.

Which brings the current inventory to 93 homes listed for sale from $1,000,000 to $12,500,000 - and 5 homes sold in 2+ months = about a 38 month supply of high-end homes. But – assuming we’re not barraged with more new listings - that number will drop as the 11 homes in contract sell.

Notwithstanding the rush of early contracts this year, traditionally, the high-end market picks up its pace in March, April and sometimes even May.

Last year was the best year (in a series of dismal years) since 2008 for the Catalina Foothills $1million+ market; will 2017 be another best year.

It looks possible, maybe even promising, but still way to early to make bets. Particularly if, as I have, you’ve made them and been dead wrong.

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Catalina Foothills January – February 2017 single family home sales and sold prices

Compared to November-December, home sales for this Jan-Feb look downright puny. But they’re not, it’s a *seasonal thing, and looked at seasonally they’re really quite good. They’re higher, and often way higher, than Jan-Feb sales for every year since 2005. *(Jan-Feb sales are the result of Nov- December contracts, a time when many would-be-buyers are celebrating the holidays with family and friends)

Sold prices are also up for the first 2 months of the year. The median sold price is up13% over Jan-Feb 2016 and is higher than every Jan-Feb period since 2009. No kidding.

 

Results like this make me wonder, or at least hope, is 2017 the year that we finally see the beginning of solid and sustained price appreciation for Catalina Foothills homes.

Through 2016 sold prices in the Catalina Foothills were still way below where they were during and after the boom, while many other cities across the USA are much closer to or have already reached, and in some cases exceeded, their boom time price levels.

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in contract last week, 2/20 – 2/26/2017

From Monday February 20th thru Sunday February 26th,  23 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 3/31/17) 

19 were priced from $235,000 to $575,000
  3 from $635,000 to $685,000
  1 at $1,185,000

worth noting; 11 of the 19 homes that went to contract priced from $235k to $575k  did so after just 2 to 7 days on the market.

And while all the home sales for February have not yet been reported, so far
Jan – Feb 2017 single family home sales are up 23% over Jan – Feb 2016. And the median sale price is up 13%. It’s just two months so I wouldn’t bet the farm on it, but for now everything is moving in the right direction.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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in contract last week, 2/13 – 2/19

From Monday February 13th thru Sunday February 19th,  23 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 3/24/17)

14 were priced from $282,680 to $599,900
6 from $649,000 to $975,000
3 from $1,195,000 to $1,495,000

Yet another very productive week for the foothills market, with contracts across all price points except for the upper-upper end.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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in contract last week, 2/6 – 2/12

From Monday February 6th thru Sunday February 12th,  21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 3/17/17)

17 were listed from $189,000 to $525,000
  3 from $684,500 to $895,000
  1 at $1,350,000 (there was another contract at $1,850,000 but it apparently fell thru)

The numbers for the previous (and much more impressive) week are HERE

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in contract last week, 1/30 – 2/5

From Monday January 30th thru Sunday February 5th,  29 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 3/9/17)

17 were priced from $215,000 to $549,000
  9 from $605,000 to $799,000
  3 from $1,195,000 to $1,549,000

another hot week for Catalina Foothills home sales.
tidbit – since January 1st 9 homes priced at $1million+ have gone to contract. (link expires 3/9/17)  At this time last year there was 1. 

UPDATE:  Make that 11 homes at $1million+ to contract since Jan 1st - 2 more went to contract later in the day. (link expires 3/10/17)

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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in contract last week, 1/23 – 1/29/2017

From Monday January 23rd thru Sunday January 29th,  22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 3/3/2017)

18 were priced from $239,900 to $599,990
  3 from $649,000 to $818,000
  1 at $1,150,000

with 18 contracts last week, 17 the week before and 32 during the first two weeks of the year homes priced up to $599,999 continue to dominate the market as they fly off the shelf.

It’s early in the season so I hate to jump the gun and call it a sellers market but with just a 3 month supply of homes for sale (up to $599k) and nonstop contracts it sure looks that way.

And it’s not just the lower end of the $0 - $599k price range with a squeaky tight supply, it’s all tight. There’s a flat 3 month supply of homes up to $399k, and from $400 to $599k it’s just a smidge over 3 months. 

And January is the very beginning, and typically the slowest month, of our high season ( which runs Jan – May/June).

See the meager January sales for 2015/2016 relative to the rise in sales during months that follow.

 

 

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in contract last week, 1/16 – 1/22/2017

From Monday January 16th thru Sunday January 22nd,  26 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 2/25/2017)

17 were priced from $229,000 to $499,000 
  6 from $640,000 to $789,000
  3 from $1,075,000 to $1,500,000

A pretty bang-up start to 2017, with contracts at all price points.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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off to the races, in contract 1st 2 weeks 2017

From Monday January 2nd thru Sunday January 15th,  41 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 2/16/17)

32 were priced from $215,000 to $599,500
7 from $624,000 to $929,000
2 from $1,049,000 to $1,250,000

The market is often sluggish during the first few weeks of the new year, with buyers kicking tires, biding their time and waiting to see what new listings come on. Not this year, they’re jumping right in.

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from peak to trough to now, January 2017

A couple of recent posts showed that median sold prices in the Catalina Foothills had dropped 31% from their 2006 peak to their bottom in 2012, and since then have inched up a measly 6%. And that is accurate, but it’s an overall figure, for all homes sold throughout the foothills. And as I mentioned in one of those posts, ‘…prices across the foothills do not march in lockstep. Some areas, price ranges and even individual homes, perform better or worse than others’.

So let’s see how much better or worse individual subdivisions performed; during the peak year 2006 to the bottom in 2012 and in 2016. The following figures are median sold prices for all single family homes sold in each subdivision, for the full years shown.

Next to the sold price is the % change from peak to trough and from trough to 2016.
Click any of the highlighted subdivision names to see all the homes currently for sale.
** indicate just one home sold

Area	2006	2012	2016
All Foothills Sales	$547,750	$375,000 / -31%	$398,000 / +6%
Shadow Hills	$633,750	$435,000 / –31%	$487,500 / +12%
Pima Cyn	$1,766,500	$1,090,000 / –38%	$1,500,000 / +37%
Sin Vacas	$915,000	$625,000 / –32%	$651,500 / +4%
Cat Foothills 1-9	$677,500	$530,000 / –22%	$550,000 / +4%
Cat Foothills 10	$1,200,000	$992,500 / – 17%	$860,000 / – 13%
La Paloma Estates	$2,475,000	$1,065,000 / – 57%	$1,150,000 / +8%
La Paloma (not Est)	$625,000	$405,000 / –35%	$470,000 / +16
Cobblestone	no sales	$1,004,956**	$1,030,000
Canyons	no sales	$2,100,000	$3,250,000**
Hac del Sol Est	$1,200,000	$735,000 / –39%	$775,000 / +5%
Foothills ll	$1,062,000	$979,750 / –8%	no sales
Pinnacle Ridge	$952,500	$651,000 / –32%	$739,000 / +14%
Skyline CC	$1,000,000	$641,000 / – 36%	$730,000 / +14%
Skyline Bel Air	$597,250	$345,500 / –42%	$420,000 / +22%
Alta Vista	$1,050,000	$845,000 / –20%	$735,000 / –13%
Cimarron	$722,500	$435,000 /-39%	$519,000 / +19%
Flecha Caida	$528,500	$361,350 / –32%	$382,110 / +6%
Fairfield	$560,000	$360,000 / –36%	$430,992 / +20%
Villages of Ventana	$485,000	$341,500 / –29%	$327,034 / –4%
Ventana Golf Villas	$619,900	$340,000 / -45%	$365,000 / +7%
Ventana Lake, Cyn Est, Whalebck.	$1,150,000	$1,207,500 / +5	$885,000 / –27%
Ventana Cyn Mountain Est	$2,212,500	$1,700,000**/ –23%	$1,250,000 / –26%
Sabino Mtn	$839,250	$319,950 / –62%	$360,000 / +12%

Nope, prices sure didn't march in lockstep, they’re all over the lot, both in how far they fell and how much they’ve recovered. But one thing is for sure, this has been a painfully slow recovery.

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2017, the 1st 10 days

2017 is off to a busy start;

41 new listings
24 are priced from $220,000 to $599,000
8 from $623,500 to $900,000
and with reason for optimism at the upper-end 9 new listings from $1,039,000 to $1,795,000

and in a tip of the hat to the new year 36 listings priced from $265,000 to $5,900,000 were re-listed.

25 homes went to contract already
20 are priced from $215,000 to $599,500
4 from $624,900 to $929,000
1 at $1,250,000

worth noting - 5 of the homes went to contract quickly, in 2 to 6 days. On the other hand two of the contracts were for homes that had been on the market forever, for 978 and 1086 days.

It’s a start

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lower supply, higher demand as we head into 2017

Last year at this time there were 438 single family homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills and 56 sold in the previous 30 days.

Right now there are just 348 homes listed for sale, and 92 sold in the last 30 days. (12/7/16 – 1/6/2017)

a  20% drop in supply and a 64% jump in demand.

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sales & prices, the Big Picture

The other day we reported on sales and prices for 2016 vs. 2015. The following charts show the longer term trends of sales and prices for single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills.

Sales have come back nicely, but slowly, since bottoming out in 2009, they’ve increased 62% since then and for 2016 are just 16% below their 2004 peak. 

Not such a pretty picture for sold prices. They’ve come back very weakly since bottoming out in 2012, they’re up just 6% since then and for 2016 remain 27% below their 2006 peak. At this rate it’s impossible to imagine when, or if, prices will return to those lofty heights of the boom years. However, keep in mind that prices across the foothills do not march in lockstep. Some areas, price ranges and even individual homes, perform better or worse than others.

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2016, by the numbers

935 single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills in 2016 – 11% more than 2015. (and it is likely there will be a few more sales reported after the new year)

As we head into the new year there are just 346 single family homes for sale – the fewest since 2012

Average/Median Sold prices for 2016 ($489,671/$398,000) are up 2.3% average and down 3% median over 2015. The uptick in average prices is, I’m guessing, largely due to many more $1million+ homes sold this year. How many more – 33 sold in 2015, 53 in 2016.

I decided to check my guess, and I guessed right, the uptick is due to more $1million+ sales. Pulling only sales up to $999,999 we have 2015 at average/median sold of $442,770/$402,000  vs.. $435,745/$385,000 for 2016 – a -1.6% drop in average and a -4.2% drop in median sold prices this year. 

But if the inventory remains low and the demand stays high, as it has been, it is very likely that come May or June we will look back and see that prices have risen.

The busiest price range for single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills was $300,000 to $399,999 - with 260 sales – 28% of the market.

The least busy was a 3 way tie, with 5 sales each for $1,400,000 to $1,599,999, $1,800,000 to $1,999,999 and $2,000,000 & UP. UP stopped at $3,250,000 for a home in the Canyons.

After a dismal 2015 (with just 2 puny sales), Pima Canyon turned it around this year with 9 sales, including some of the priciest sales in the foothills. Yeah!

Ditto for La Paloma Estates –  a grand total of 2 sales in 2015, 8 very nice ones in 2016.

521 homes sold had pools / 414 did not

250 homes sold in gated communities / 685 in non-gated areas

788 one story homes sold / 146 two story, or taller

33 homes sold that were built from the beginning of time to 1960 
327 sold that were built from 1961 to 1980
430 sold that were built from 1981 to 2000
145 sold that were built from 2001 to now

238 homes sold for Cash / 589 with conventional financing / 3 with owner carry back / leaving 105 sold with some other creative form of payment.

12 homes sold as short sales and 24 as foreclosures in 2016 – down from 17 and 27 in 2015, down from 56 and 95 in 2012.

 

Happy New Year!

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in contract last week, 12/19 – 12/25

From Monday December 19th thru Sunday December 25th,  10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 1/28/2017)

7 were priced from $215,000 to $565,000
2 at $625,000 & $650,000
1 at $1,098,000

Not bad for Christmas week, and with yet another $million+ contract. 19 homes priced at $1million+ have gone to contract since early September.

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in contract the last 2 weeks, 12/5 – 12/18

From Monday December 5th thru Sunday December 18th,  32 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 1/20/2017)

21 were priced from $207,900 to $589,000
  6 from $620,000 to $798,000
  5 from $1,000,000 to $1,200,000

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

Currently there are 351 single family homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills, 16% to 22% fewer than at this time in the previous 3 years.  

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in contract last week, 11/28 – 12/4

From Monday November 28th thru Sunday December 4th,  15 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ.

12 were priced from $169,900 to $575,000
1 at $600,000
2 at $1,000,000 & $1,395,000

The upper-end market continues its upward climb – YTD 47 homes sold at $1.0+, a 47% increase over last year when,YTD, 32 homes had sold at $1.0+.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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Catalina Foothills November Home Sales

Single family home sales this November were 30% to 60% higher than any November over the last 5 years. They were even higher than November sales during the peak boom years of 2004 – 2005.

Thru November 849 single family homes sold in the Catalina Foothills this year vs.. 775 during the same period last year;  nearly a 10% increase

How about sold prices, how’d they do

 
they didn’t do much, just more of the same
Thru November 2015 average/median sold prices were; $478,648/$410,000
Thru this November they are; $486,222/$400,000

Ho! Ho! Ho!, there’s always December,

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in contract the last 2 weeks, 11/14 – 11/27

From Monday November 14th thru Sunday November 27th,  43 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 12/31/16)

34 were priced from $185,000 to $599,999
9 from $600,000 to $930,000
and that’s it, nothing at $1.0 & up

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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inventory is down, contracts & sales are up

I just updated the Market Snapshot numbers and noticed that there are many fewer single family homes for sale,18% fewer, this year in the Catalina Foothills than there were last year at this time. And there are 30+% more homes in contract & sold in the last 30 days than there were last year at this time. And while the pace of 2016’s lead in sales over 2015 has increased in recent months, 2016 sales have been running ahead of 2015 all year long.

Usually, shrinking inventory combined with rising sales is a sure-fire recipe for rising prices. But despite what usually happens it’s not happening here. YTD median sold prices are actually down 3.6% v. 2015, and, ironically, despite the more recent tightening inventory and bigger jump in contracts and sales, median sold prices for the last 30 days are down 13% v. the same period last year.

Then again, maybe contracts and sales are rising because prices are not.

YTD 2015 median sold prices - $415,000

YTD 2016 median sold prices - $400,000

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in contract last week, 10/31 – 11/6

From Monday October 31st thru Sunday November 6th,  22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson AZ. (link expires 12/11/16)

18 were priced from $100,000 to $599,999
2 at $739,950 & $945,000
1 at $3,900,000 ($3million 9)

Though it’s likely the $3.9 deal will close for somewhat less than asking, it may, nevertheless, end up being one of the highest $$$$ sales ever in the Catalina Foothills. Since 1995 there’ve been just 5 sales (thru the MLS) at $3.6 and UP – all 5 were tightly packed from $3.6 to $3.8 - four of which sold from 2003 to 2007 and then nothing until  2014.

The numbers for the previous week are HERE

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