The Catalina Foothills

Spec homes this year

Spec homes were wildly popular in the Catalina Foothills during the good old days of the real estate boom. Sunday open houses were big events and literally jam packed with lookers and buyers. But especially in Pima Canyon, which was a mad house, because it had many more specs than anywhere else in the foothills. But of course it all came tumbling down with the market crash of 2008 and over the next few years spec building ground to a halt.

But it now appears that specs are making a bit of a comeback, and that’s a good thing. Because it shows confidence in the market and because buyers like new homes, and right now there are very few no new spec homes available – because they’ve all sold.

So this would be a good time for you builders to start building. And while you’re at it you may want to consider building a contemporary. Not a sw contemporary, but a simple, modern, contemporary – like these.

Recent spec home history, such as it is;

In 2012 - 4 specs sold from $1,010,000 to $2,500,000

2013 - 3 specs sold from $779,000 to $1,680,000

2014 – 4 specs sold from $825,000 to $1,370,000

During 1st 6 months of this year – 7 specs sold from $428,000 to $1,600,000

So more specs sold in the first 6 months of this year than during the entire years of 2012 – 2014. But with no new spec homes available, that may be it for the year.

And just to reminisce, in 2006 - 35 specs sold in the foothills from $565,000 to $3,100,000 – 28 of them went for $1million+ – and 13 of them sold in Pima Canyon, from $1,090,000 to $3,100,000 – at a median sold price of $2,150,000 @ $437/sf – a feeding frenzy. Those were the days.

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big contract today in Cat 10

A spec home listed at $1,695,000 ($343/sf) - that I’d mentioned HERE  when it first hit the market last May – is now in contract.

And if you’re keeping score, which at this point is pretty easy, since this is just the 2nd contract since February 5th at $1million+,  2 down 105 to go

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more fun with spec home prices

In 2007, 5910 N Mina Vista was listed as a brand new spec home for $1,795,000

and it eventually sold in 2011 for $1,100,000. 

And it was listed again in 2013 for $930,000 and sold the other day for $835,000.
Meanwhile, Zillow, who has recently been uncharacteristically bullish on Catalina Foothills home prices had it at $963,870.

5910 N Mina Vista Tucson, AZ 85718 (link expires 12/15/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

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after the spec home boom

During the boom Pima Canyon was ground zero for spec homes. At one point there were something like 18 multi-million $$$ specs for sale in PC, and 7808 N Ancient Indian Drive was one of the lucky ones. It sold in 2005 as a new spec for $2,650,000 ($379/sf). But in 2005 prices were still rising steadily, so 6 months later, and with a straight face, the new owner listed it for $3,899,000 ($560/sf). And by 2011, after dropping to $1,990,000, along came a lucky buyer who sealed the deal for $1,600,000 ($229/sf). 

And that buyer listed it this past August for $1,789,900 and it went to contract in 3 days, but also fell out in 3 days. And nothing more until yesterday, by which time it had dropped to $1,689,900 ($243/sf), when it once again went to contract.

7808 N Ancient Indian Drive E , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

Nowadays, the few specs that we do see are usually of much more modest proportions and prices.

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spec home sold

and this makes it 2 sales at $$$$million+ in Alta Vista in just the last few days, but the only 2 this year. When it rains it …

6060 N Pinchot Road was first listed in April 2012 (prior to being completed) for $1,895,000 and sold today (859 days later) for $1,325,000 ($252/sf). A fairly good deal for the buyers, I think, if this is your cup of tea. The interior is actually very nice.

And though it looks like it’s sinking, it’s not, it’s just down a wee bit below the driveway,

6060 N Pinchot Road Tucson, AZ 85750 (link expires 11/14/14)
(listed by Long Realty)

See everything for sale in Alta Vista

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what are builders up to these days

apparently not much

back in the good old days, from January 1st to September 14th 2006, 33 new spec homes sold from $480,000 to $3,100,000, at an avg./median sold price of $1,554,893/$1,420,000, at an average of $341/sf. 8 years ago! (links expire 10/14/14)

This year, during the same 8 1/2 months a grand total of 10 specs sold from $285,000 to $1,370,000 at a measly avg./median sold price of $596,734/$556,482, at an average of $187/sf.

It’s small world after all,

And  who knows but from what I’ve seen, I think well built spec homes that are priced right, in the range of $800,000 to $1,200,000, could do very well. There aren’t enough newer homes to go round. On the other hand there aren’t enough good, well priced lots to go round either. And that’s the pickle.

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new spec, gone in 52 days

5669 N Mina Vista listed at $879,000 ($254/sf) on July 26th has already found a buyer.

And in Cat 5, which is mostly older adobe and brick homes, this sparkling new spec will stand out from the crowd. But nicely.

 

5669 N Mina Vista Tucson, AZ 85718   (link expires 10/14/14)
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

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another day another $million+ contract

… what is going on.

Today it’s 6060 N Pinchot Road’s turn. A spec home that was completed in 2013, but to get a jump on things was listed in 2012. But no takers until now. It’s in contract listed at $1,395,000 ($266/sf) down from it’s opening price of $1,895,000 ($366/sf). 

 

 

6060 N Pinchot Road Tucson, AZ 85750 (link expires 10/9/14)
(listed  by Long Realty)

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a new spec home

And for just $879,000 ($254/sf). I can’t imagine how, but word must’ve got out that the $1,700,000 range, once upon a time a popular price point for specs, is deader than a doornail.

This one, at 5669 N Mina Vista on 1.27 acres in Catalina Foothills Estates 5, is 3463sf,
4 Beds/3.5 Baths, 1 story, frame stucco, 3 car, no pool,  just hit the market.

New specs are rare in the old foothills because there’s almost no vacant land available. And often, when one does pop up, it’s the result of a knock-down. But not this one. This was a vacant lot the builder picked up in 2012 at a bargain price (when lot sales were zilch). And therefore he didn’t start out a few hundred thou out of pocket, and with an old house to knock down, before he could even begin to swing his hammer.

5669 N Mina Vista Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

search all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
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a new spec home in Pima Canyon

It’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a new spec in PC but here it is, a new spec at
1993 E Quiet Canyon Drive, listed today at $1,449,000 ($299/sf), noting that it’s in the final stages of construction with move-in by the end of this year.
Built 2013, 4844sf, 5 beds/4 baths, 3 car, no pool or spa.

This rounds it out to a dozen homes for sale in PC, but this is the only new one of the bunch. Let’s see if my theory that more buyers of high-end homes prefer newer to older holds up.

1993 E Quiet Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(owned and listed by Diamond Foothills Properties)

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spec homes just ain’t what they used to be

And thank goodness for that. Looking over the current crop of specs, though, with just 8 for sale, it is a small crop - a few years ago Pima Cyn alone often had 8 to 12 specs - today’s specs are much more modest (cheaper too) and better located than many of the specs built during the carefree ra-ra days. Back then builders thought nothing of squeezing a spec in here and there along the side of a busy road – (road kill) eventually though, after selling for pennies on the $$ and with many thru foreclosure, they learned that buyers weren’t clamoring to live by the side of the road.

The 8 for sale range from $899,000, which was listed just today, to $3,450,000, the granddaddy of the group listed 4 years ago and still going strong. But from $3,450,000 it drops steeply to $1,495,000, so a tightly packed group of 7 from $899 to $1,495. And not one is by the side of a busy road.

8 specs for sale

for perspective, here’s a post on the spec home scene in 2009  the last of the spec homes and 09 was just the tip of the iceberg for spec homes. And I like this one > if it’s cheap and by the side of the road, is it a bargain, < because it kills 2 birds with 1 stone, the spec scene and the mania to build by the side of the road.

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U.S. home builders reported the best conditions in the housing market since the mid-2000s boom

From WSJ.com
By ERIC MORATH And JOSH MITCHELL

The National Association of Home Builders, an industry trade group, said Monday that its housing-market index leapt to a reading of 52 in June, up by eight points from May. The jump was the biggest since the summer 2002.

The reading marked the first time since April 2006 that the index registered a reading over 50, which indicates most home builders view sales conditions as good rather than poor. The reading was far above economists' expectations of a 45-point measure for June. The index was based on a survey of 255 builders in June.

"Surpassing this important benchmark reflects the fact that builders are seeing better market conditions as demand for new homes increases," said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, a home builder and developer from Charlotte, N.C. "With the low inventory of existing homes, an increasing number of buyers are gravitating toward new homes.

Home Builders' Outlook Turns 'Good' for First Time Since '06
____________________________________________________________________

Here in the Catalina Foothills, where many builders got burned during the boom & bust, and who didn’t, most builders appear to be tip-toeing very carefully back into the market. Of the 9 new construction listings in the MLS only 3 of them are spec homes that are actually built or in the process of being built. The others are to-be-built, that is, once a buyer comes along and signs a contract and puts down a deposit. And not until. Also, back in the boom days of the spec home frenzy you never saw a spec listed for less than 1$million, and most were at $1,500,000 and up, and some way up. Today 4 of the 9 listings are at $635, $725, $759 and $995.

And I see that La Quinta is building again along Campbell Ave behind the iron gate just north of Calle La Vela. This is on the 10 acres they acquired in the 2002 purchase, for $1,450,000, of a Joesler estate which they then renovated and sold for $1,550,000 in 2004, but with just 2.4 acres. Meanwhile La Quinta carved out 4 additional building lots from the remaining 7.6 acres.

A good bet and good timing on La Quinta’s part. With the country still reeling from 9/11 and the stock market crash, the high-end market here was dead in 2002. But by 2004 happy days were here again. (and by 2007, when that same Joesler sold again for $2.2m, they were downright giddy – but the end was near)

And La Quinta didn’t get off scot-free either. By the time they got two of their very high-end spec homes in the ground the boom had become the bust and when they finally did sell they sold for steep discounts.

The blue outline is the original 10 acre parcel with the Joesler in the upper left and the 4 lots that were split, two of them with La Quinta spec homes.
One sold in 09 for $1,232,000 after starting in 08 at $1,685,000, the other for $1,600,000 in 2010 after starting in 07 at $2,695,000. And La Quinta’s are beautifully designed, all masonry construction with the very best materials and craftsmanship – a level of quality that is rarely seen.

 

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almost home

2102 E Desert Garden Drive started out 3 years ago at $4,199,000 and after a few hefty price cuts went to contract last month listed at $2,849,000 ($534/sf), and today is reported as PENDING - all issues resolved and full steam ahead.

Depending on where it sells, and I don’t have a clue, it could be one of the highest priced sales in the foothills in a few years. If it went for $2.5 (I just pulled that out of my hat) it’d be tied with just one other sale at $2.5 for the highest sale since January 2010.

Desert Garden is a spec home – the last of that once esteemed group in Pima Canyon – all of which fared very poorly if judged by how long they took to sell and the differential between their initial asking prices and final selling prices. In addition to which a high percentage ended up as foreclosures or short sales. But this is neither of those.

2102 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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Alta Vista’s on a roll

Listed at $1,199,000 ($252/sf), 6597 N Calle De La Lluvia, a spec home, is in contract today after 420 days. And, with nerves of steel, not even a teeny price cut in all 420 days.

That’s 4 contracts for AV in the last 10 days, at – $729,000, $895,000, $895,000 again, and now $1,199,000 + one at $899,000 from earlier in the month, on a big roll,

6597 N Calle De La Lluvia Tucson, AZ 85750  (street of rain)
(listed by Long Realty)

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it took a few months longer than I thought it would

but 6966 N Javelina Drive is in contract. This is seldom found new construction in Skyline CC, like brand new, and not a knockdown either, which is typical in Skyline. And it’s a contemporary, also rare. Listed at $1,499,000 ($283/sf).

The lot was purchased in 04 for $672,500. Yikes!

6966 N Javelina Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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the party’s over on Corte de Andalucia

The other day I recited the grim details of the sale of 3189 E Corte De Andalucia, which sold as a foreclosure for $800,000 the other day after starting out 6 years ago at $1,895,000 > 6 years and 50% off <. 

And, like peas in a pod, today, its next door neighbor at 3199 E Corte De Andalucia sold for $1,050,000, after starting out nearly 4 years ago at $1,795,000 – mentioned here > too late < when it went to contract.

I think the buyers of 3199 did very well. 3189, eh, with all the steps and the west facing backyard, it’s just not to my liking.

3199 E Corte De Andalucia Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)                                                    3189 E Corte De Andalucia Tucson, AZ 85718
                                                                                                   (listed by RE/MAX Majestic 4044)

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too late

In Hacienda del Sol Estates - 3199 E Corte De Andalucia made it’s debut as a shiny new spec home in the very grim days of May 2009, listed at $1,795,000 ($375/sf).  

But these projects take time. Between figuring out what to build, putting together the building plans, getting the approvals and permits and then the actual excavation and construction, plus the various Pima County inspections along the way, you’re looking at about 2 years from the bright idea to the finished product. And a lot can change over 2 years, and boy did they ever. The builder closed on the lot for $440,000 in August 07 – just as the first shoe dropped – but they forged ahead anyway.

Well it’s been on the market ever since, and dropped $200k here and $50k there, until it got down to $1,195,000 in June of 2011, where it has held ever since. And today it’s reported in contract. Thank Goodness!

I showed it 3 or 4 times in 2011 and 12 and I thought it was a very decent house, and everyone I showed it to spent time and were interested to one extent or  another, but no one fell in love.  Though we did make a low offer late last year, but that didn’t fly, so I’m anxious to see what it goes for.

PS - and, incredibly enough, it’s not a foreclosure or short sale.

3199 E Corte De Andalucia Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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sales at $2,000,000 are not breaking any records,

not the kind you’re likely to brag about anyway. While there are a fair number of sellers at $2.0+ who would like to sell - at the moment there are 20 listed and, I imagine, quite a few others on the sidelines who would if they thought they could – but very few buyers are taking the bait – just 4 sold in 2012 for $2mil or more. And two of them just squeaked in at $2.050, $2.050, then one at $2.150 and one at $2.5. And no one paid retail for any this stuff either. These sales started out (years ago) listed at $3.995, $3.850, $4.5 and $4.2. And three of the four were spec homes.

And while I am by no means a financial whiz (love to hear from those who are) I can’t imagine that the tax increases that appear almost sure to come, at least for the top earners, are going to do much to spur sales in this bracket.

And the $2,000,000 house market in the Foothills was just getting off the ground. 
- here are the sales at $2.0+ in previous years;

2001 – 2
2002 – 1
2003 – 2
2004 – 6
2005 – 12
this is when luxe builders started licking their chops and figuring out how to out-lavish each other,
2006 – 19
then, in the blink of an eye the boom started to fizzle before many of them had hammered their first nail. But they’re builders, so they kept on building while sales kept on dropping
20007 –13
2008 – 9
2009 – 6
2010 – 3
2011 – 2
Blastoff!

And nothing currently in contract at $2.0. Will there be bargains or blood next year.

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home builders are at it once again

After years of losing their shirts on untold numbers of unsold spec homes – many most of which eventually did sell but at 30 – 40% discounts (and those were the lucky ones) or, worse yet, they ended up in mr. lenders hands – spec homes, incredibly enough, are now making a comeback.

I count 9 new specs priced from $799,930 to $1,895,000 that have been listed this year.

One just broke ground and was listed today for $1,200,000 ($290/sf) - 6537 N Calle de la LLuvia in Alta Vista. (listed by Long Realty).

And 2981 E Plaza Encantada was listed on June 1 at $1,300,000 ($286/sf) and went to contract the other day. (listed by Long Realty)

And 6540 N PLACITA DE TIA RO was listed in March at $1,249,000 ($309/sf), went to contract in April and closed for earlier this month for $1,225,000.

I hope they’re right this time.

9 new spec homes

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Tuesday in the Foothills

A (another) new spec home in Skyline CC – this one at 6966 N Javelina Drive listed today at $1,595,000 ($301/sf). Check it out - 5,299/sf, 4 Beds/5 Baths, 1 story, 3 car, pool/spa, a Kevin Howard contemporary design.
 

6966 N Javelina Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

And if you’re looking to live-large up on Sabino Mountain this may be just the thing.
7525 E Crested Saguaro Place, which weighs in at 8009 sf and sold for $2,250,000 in 08 was listed today at $1,800,000 ($225/sf).  

And that 08 sale for $2.250 holds the title for the highest sale on Sabino Mountain, ever, thru the Tucson MLS anyway. 7525 E Crested Saguaro Place Tucson, AZ 8575 (listed by Help-U-Sell Galleria Realty 4272)

5121 N Soledad Primera in Cat 7 had been on the market since early this year, then took a break for the summer and returned yesterday with a contract in hand – listed at $825,000 ($201/sf). With the largest and most complete guest houses I’ve seen.
5121 N Soledad Primera , Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

Get this, there are 10 homes for sale in Cobblestone and just one sold this year. Pretty dreary. And then last week along comes 7377 N McManus Trail, newly listed at $799,000, bringing that total to11. But not for long. Because McManus is already in contract. And I showed it on Saturday morning and already it had two offers. But my clients didn’t care for it, for them the interior needed a top to bottom renovation -  It’s the proverbial good bones house with brick everywhere, and I mean everywhere. And a very nice, high lot as well. 7377 N McManus Trail Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty)

7654 N Canyon Spirit Way in Pima Canyon sold today for $1,250,000 ($245/sf) from a $1,350,000 listing that was reduced  from $1.6 when it debuted last October. I showed it early this year when it was $1.5 and it’s a nice enough contemporary, eh, but I didn’t think it was a $1.5 house. No way. And neither did my clients. And apparently the market agreed.
7654 N Canyon Spirit Way, Tucson, AZ 85718  (listed by Long Realty)

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a new spec house sold

and quickly too - in Alta Vista, 6540 N PLACITA DE TIA RO was listed in early March for $1,249,000, and went to contract in late April and closed today for $1,225,000 ($303/sf).

Because of all the specs that ended up going back to mr lender, and/or selling for a fraction of their asking prices during the bust, it looked as if specs were a thing of the past. But with many of the boom/bust specs now sold and the overall inventory scraping bottom, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a modest resurgence of more modest new specs.

Earlier this year 6820 N Los Leones Drive, listed for $1,600,000, went to contract in 13 days and closed for $1,525,000 ($275/sf).

6540 N PLACITA DE TIA RO Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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strike 3

The good news is that 6151 E Finisterra, a mega spec home, sold today for $2,500,000 ($280/sf). 

But that’s off a $3,500,000 ($392/sf) list price that was reduced from a long held $4,200,000 ($470/sf) list price. It was at $4.2 from Feb 2010 until May of this year when it dropped to $3.5, and that did  the trick. It went to contract 30 days later. And while $2.5 may not have been the magic number they were dreaming of, with no comparable sales to lean on and no hope of a return to yesterdays prices, what alternative was there.

When 6151 was conceived and planned for, probably in 07 – 08, high-end homes were still selling at $2.5 to $3.5 and in the mid $400’s/sf and up. But by the time it hit the market in 2010 those numbers were history. And the only other sales at $2.0 or more this year were two other mega specs, both of which also sold at reductions of 40% – 50% from where they started.
see > bets on high-end spec homes have not paid off
And of course every low-ball sale just makes it even more farfetched for those still holding out at yesterdays prices.

On the bright side 6151 is the highest priced home sale in the foothills since late 2009.

6151 E Finisterra  Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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popularly priced at $2,050,000

A grand total of two homes have sold for more than $2 million this year in the foothills and they both sold for exactly $2,050,000. What are the odds of that.

In the Canyons, a spec home at  7417 N Secret Canyon Drive  sold last month for $2,050,000 from a $2,995,000 list that had been reduced from its starting price of $4.5 more than 3 years ago > (if you’re selling in the Canyons this is not good news) (listed by Long Realty)

And in Pima Canyon today, 1714 E Barrel Cactus Drive, also a spec, sold for $2,050,000 from a $2,495,000 list reduced from $3,995,000 when it debuted 3+ years ago. (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty) (when you least expect it life surprises you)

The real point though is that these are both beautiful homes, not quite new but never lived in, and both on cream of the crop lots in premier gated communities. And  both sold for drastically reduced prices, about 50% of where they started, and that does not bode well for those still holding out for yesterdays prices. And neither of them were distress sales.

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bets on high-end spec homes have not paid off

During the boom the mantra was, buy more, build bigger and you’ll make more. 
In other words why mess around with a $500k deal that you could maybe turn into $750k when you could do a $2.0mil deal and turn it into $3.0mil+. And it’s all borrowed money anyway, so what’s to worry. 

It sounded good at the time but since then most of the $2 mil+ spec deals hatched during the boom haven’t panned out. As a matter of fact I can’t think of even one that has panned out.
Three homes listed at $2mil+ have gone to contract this year and so far it doesn’t look very promising.

The 1st of the specs to contract this year was 7417 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Long Realty) It debuted in 08 at $4,500,000 and after dropping to $2,995,000 it went to contract in March. Well OK, $4.5 to $2.9, that’s a big cut but it’ll  go for $2.6 or $2.7, eh. Oh yeah, it closed last month for  $2,050,000 - 45% of its original asking price - Plus the cost of carrying it for 4 years, oye!

1714 E Barrel Cactus Court Tucson, AZ 85718 (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty) the 2nd of 3 homes listed at $2 million+ to go to contract this year was reported as PENDING today. The PENDING status indicates that all contingencies have been met, and the deal is more or less a sure thing, and carelessly coasting toward close of escrow. Barrel Cactus, which I’ve mentioned a few times in the past > HERE & HERE < is a 2009 built spec that was first listed for $3,995,000 in 09. And after 3+ years and a few cuts it was reduced to $2,495,000 this April and went to contract in May. It hasn’t closed yet so we don’t’ know the accepted price. The investors paid $1.3 for the lot alone in 07, and that was before doing any site prep.  Even at $2.4 they’d be out a bundle. A big bundle.

The 3rd high-end spec to see action this year went contract just last week in Finisterra listed at $3,500,000 after starting out in Feb 2010 at $4,200,000. Not so bad, considering. But, at what price did it go to contract. We’ll have to wait and see.  6151 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750 (listed by Long Realty)

Here’s a few from yesteryear;

The spec at 2162 E Sentry Ridge Court sold for $1,500,000 this past March from a $1,550,000 list price. But it took four years and was reduced from $2,950,000.

Another Pima Canyon spec, 7828 N Ancient Indian Drive, sold in March 2011 for $1,660,500 after starting out in January 09 at $3,295,000.

And another, 2123 E Sentry Ridge Court, dropped from $2,750,000 to $1,850,000 before accepting $1,517,250 after 4 long years.

1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place, also a Pima Canyon spec, started at $3.2 in 06 and ended at $1.9 four years later.

One of the early birds to the spec party, a La Quinta along Campbell Ave, started out in June 07 at $2,695,000 and didn’t sell until July 2010 when it finally got $1,600,000.

These big deals take time to pull together and build, 2 –3 years if all goes well.
And for many of them the boom was history by the time they arrived. The boom was short lived, but the bust has gone on forever. And it’s cut deeper and lasted way longer than anyone imagined. And what we’re seeing now, the crash of the most expensive specs, is the final collapse - the collapse of those who were able to hold out the longest, only to watch as the market for the most expensive homes continues to plunge.

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they’re dropping like flies

UPDATE:
OOPS! I spoke too soon. 4521 N Hacienda del Sol which expired this morning is back on the market already. 

4521 N Hacienda del Sol started life in 1956 as a 4000+ sf brick charmer on a gorgeous hilltop lot in the old foothills. But during the boom it was knocked down to make way for a 7,831 sf Mediterranean style spec home that remains unsold after 4 years and expired today at $2,995,000.

The Med styled version was built in 08 and listed in June of that year for $4,295,000. But the party was so over by then. So in September 2010 it was relisted for $3,295,000, whereupon I’d written about it under the irresistible title > this house was listed today <

So this is what, the 4th or 5th high-end dropout in the last 2 weeks.

expired at > 4521 N Hacienda Del Sol Tucson, AZ 85718 <
(Listed by Long Realty)

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SOLD, a real contemporary

4905 N Camino Antonio sold today for $1,262,500 ($277/sf) off a $1,500,000 list price.
It also sold in July 2008 for $1,350,000. And given the economic havoc since then, I’d say the sellers did very well today. But they were selling something that’s in very short supply here in the foothills – a real contemporary. And while there are fewer buyers for contemporaries, when a buyer does come along there’s usually very little, if anything, to choose from. (listed by Long Realty) And, coincidentally, Zillow’s most recent Zestimate was $1,258,600. Do we think that had anything to do with the sale price.

This is one of a set of triplets, three virtually identical homes - same architect, builder,size, style, materials and amenities, you name it - that were designed by Don Kornberg and built in 2007 as spec homes along Camino Antonio.

The first one at 4919 N Camino Antonio hit the market in June 06 for $1,795,000 (prior to being completed) and sold lickety-split in April 07 for $1,715,000. So they started off with a bang.

But the second – at 4911 N Camino Antonio -  also listed in June 06 (also prior to being completed) wasn’t quite as lucky. It debuted at $1,695,000, and since it didn’t sell at that price they raised to $1,775,000. But even that didn’t do it. And so it lolled around on the market until February 09 when it was reduced to $1,375,000 and sold for a disappointing $1,050,000. (I wrote about it at the time – sold, for a song)

A similar fate befell today’s sale at 4905 N Camino Antonio. Except that even though it came along a little later than the others it has now sold twice. It was completed and listed in April 07 for $1,795,000 (of course) and by May 08 it had only dropped to $1,645,000, but with two big specs on their hands they caved and accepted an offer of $1,350,000 and it closed in July 08.
Just in the nick of time, well, for the seller anyway.

Here are the sold listings for all three > 4919, 4911 and 4905 Camino Antonio < see if you can tell them apart. And aside from the falling market, maybe that was the problem. Do you really want to spend a $$million something for a clone of the house across the street.

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another one calls it quits

Built by Bartholomew Custom Homes in 2002, 2087 E Desert Garden was not just on the leading edge, it was the leading edge of the ultra-luxe spec home movement that took wing in Pima Canyon at that time. It first sold in April 2003 for $2,200,000 – and was described as “… Elegantly appointed hand carved cantera stone, Majestic pillars & European ambiance …”

I’ll say,
 
It’s not my style at all, but I held it open a few times back then and 
whether or not it was their cup of tea, most visitors couldn’t help marveling
at how incredibly lavish it was. The design, finishes and craftsmanship
were a breakthrough for spec homes.

But that was 02, 03. And in Feb 08 it was listed again, this time for $3,300,000, and after 4+ years and a few price cuts it still remains unsold and was canceled yesterday listed at $2,495,000 ($431/sf).  But nothing’s selling at $400/sf these days, so that’s no surprise.

2087 E Desert Garden Drive
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

if you’re selling in the Canyons this is not good news,

though you may see it differently if you’re a buyer, 

7417 N Secret Canyon Drive, a posh 2009 built spec home was listed for $4,500,000 ($622/sf) when it started out in October 08 and sold today for $2,050,000 ($283/sf) from an already greatly reduced list price of 2,995,000 ($414/sf). (listed by long Realty)

My goodness how could this happen, and in the Canyons no less.
Very easily really if you look at actual sale prices in the Canyons over the last 4 years.
7454 N Secret Canyon, also a posh spec home, started out asking $5,000,000 ($722/sf) in March 09 and ended up selling as a foreclosure for $1,850,000 ($267/sf) last May.
And down the road apiece 7203 N Cloud Canyon Place, which was not a spec, started out at $3,250,000 in Feb 07 and ended up getting $1,400,000 ($252/sf) last November, after more than four years. And prior to those three sales there was a long dry spell, with the last sale in the Canyons in July 2008 (ancient history), when 7550 N Secret Canyon Drive sold for $2,600,000 ($490/sf). The way it was.

So while the only 3 sales in the Canyons in recent history sold in the $252 to $283/sf range, the 5 homes remaining for sale are still in the $400 to $620/sf range – which may not go down so easy. And, to boot, 3508 E Secret Canyon Place, on the market since July 2010 and listed at $3,200,000 ($503/sf) was cancelled today. Coincidence? (listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)  Stay tuned.

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eventually they come around

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive, a 2010 built spec in Pima Canyon, first listed for $2,250,000 in Jan 2010, sold today for $1,400,000 after finally dropping to $1.495 – just 37% from where it started. And think of all the carrying costs, taxes alone last year were $17,691.

But what can you expect - by the time it hit the market in 2010 the spec home frenzy that gripped the foothills during the boom was a distant memory - yet Ancient Indian was priced as if it were still 2006.

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

I mentioned it on these pages when it was listed in Jan 2010 > just what the doctor ordered <

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above it all in Pima Canyon

1714 E Barrel Cactus Court, at the very north end of PC and literally up in Catalinas, with dazzling views of the entire Tucson valley, is one of just a handful of lots in this very secluded and peaceful section of Pima Canyon.

And not to be overshadowed by the location, the house itself is a real dazzler. With more panache and verve than is usual it’s sleekly outfitted with Italian cabinetry from Scavolini, Gaggenau appliances, marble floors and a swim up bar to soak in those views.

.

It started in 09 at $3,995,000 and as of today is priced at $2,495,000.

1714 E Barrel Cactus Court  Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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and then there were 2

7707 N Ancient Indian Drive, a spec, started out in Jan 2010 @ $2,250,000, was more recently listed at $1,495,000 ($268/sf), and is reported in contract today.

That leaves just two specs in PC, and wouldn’t you know it, they’re also the two priciest homes in there, at $2,795,000 ($449/sf) and $4,199,000 ($787/sf). They may be with us for just a bit longer. 3 years ago there were 11 specs and nothing was moving. And it looked like nothing ever would again.

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you can ask whatever you want

Here’s a fascinating look at the starting list price and the eventual sold price, plus Zillow’s valuation, on some of the priciest homes sold in the last couple of years in the Catalina Foothills.  And many of them started out as specs and quite a few ended up as short sales
or foreclosures.

And as you’ll see there’s quite a spread between the initial list price and the eventual sold price. But even more eye opening, in accurately predicting the sale price, Zillow trounces the initial list price by hundreds of thousands, millions even, nearly every time. And the Zestimate price, as shown, reflects the zestimate at the time the house was listed. Be it in 2006, 2007 or whenever. So the zestimate corresponds to the same period when the initial asking price was set.

And, rather than being a handicap, I think the one edge that Zillow does have over many home owners and agents is that their valuations are cold and calculated and emotionless.
They don’t take needs and desires into account, whether they’re personal, financial or just based on what your neighbor got two years ago and you want to get now. And that’s a big plus, because the market doesn’t care one whit about any of that stuff.

(for the two properties marked with a * the zestimate is the closest month to the listing date that a zestimate was available)

where	asked	Zillow says,	got
2123 E Sentry Ridge Ct	$2,750,000	$1,800,000	$1,517,250
2112 E Sentry Ridge Ct	$5,900,000	$1,800,000	$1,765,000
2304 E Sentry Ridge Ct	$4,950,000	$1,500,000	$2,325,000
2162 Sentry Ridge Ct	$2,950,000	$1,600,000*	$1,500,000
7454 N Secret Canyon Dr	$5,000,000	$2,500,000*	$1,850,000
7828 N Ancient Indian Dr	$3,295,000	$2,000,000	$1,660,500
1682 E Sahuaro Blossom Place	$4,200,000	$2,200,000	$1,304,000
1813 E Sahuaro Blossom Place	$3,200,000	$1,700,000	$1,900,000
4647 E Palais Place	$4,450,000	$1,600,000	$1,400,000
6921 E Rock Ledge Place	$4,500,000	$1,700,000	$2,200,000
6959 N Javelina Drive	$4,900,000	$1,868,300	$1,850,000
7049 N Mission Hill Lane	$5,000,000	$1,600,000	$1,650,000
3208 E Via Palomita	$3,200,000	$1,739,400	$1,750,000

And while all of these homes were subsequently reduced and reduced again until they did sell, I’m pretty sure that many of them would have sold a lot quicker and for bigger bucks had they been more reasonably priced to begin with.

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bad timing & high pricing

Even though it was just a hole in ground in 2007, 2162 E Sentry Ridge Court was listed for $2,800,000 ($612/sf) in January of that year. But it didn’t sell. So after 8 months it was pulled from the market and not relisted until October 08 - when the house was finally completed but the US economy was coming apart. And for reasons that we’ll never know, and who really cares, they bumped the price to $2,950,000. But that didn’t work either.

And to make a long story short, because you’ve heard it all before, it finally sold today for $1,500,000 ($328/sf) from a finally much reduced asking price of $1,550,000. And while the sellers may not agree, at that, I think they did well.

Zillow, meanwhile, pegged it at $1,330,200

This is the last of spec homes to finally sell on Sentry Ridge Court, in Pima Canyon, the street of broken dreams. Amen.

2162 E Sentry Ridge Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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talk about lowballing

Zillow’s zestimate for 6820 N Los Leones Drive, a new spec in Skyline CC, is $1,010,800.

Meanwhile Los Leones sold today for $1,525,000.

6820 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Listed by Long Realty)

ready or not, another distress sale for Pima Canyon

According to Realty Trac, 1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place is now bank owned.

A spec, it was still under construction when listed for $2,900,000 ($624/sf) in 2006.
But no-go, gee I wonder why, and it left the market in July 07 at a mere $2,795,000 – not to return anytime soon.

Vacant during that time it was also available as a rental, first for $10k – but no-go there either – then for around $5k. And that worked and it was rented and occupied over the years (very un-spec-like behavior, most just plug along for sale) and then, while rented, it was listed for sale last November (after 4 years off the market) for $1,100,000 as a short sale. And it went to contract pronto, in 20 days, but as a first stage short sale contract, with just the owner signing off on the deal.

Meanwhile mr. lender, the one calling the shots, was, as usual, taking their sweet time and had not gotten around to giving it their blessing.

And now despite having an offer in hand it appears mr. lender has gone ahead and foreclosed. Which means everyone’s out of luck - the former owner, the tenant, and the intended buyer. Not to mention the listing and buyers agents. So much for the year of the short sale.

Sharpen your checkbooks, because, assuming they price it right, I’m sure there’ll be plenty of competition for this when it shows up as a foreclosure. 

1643 E Sahuaro Blossom Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(was listed by Coldwell Banker Residential Br)

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to contract in record time

Listed just 14 days ago, 6820 N Los Leones Drive, a recently completed spec home in Skyline CC, range priced from $1,600,000 to $2,000,000, is in contract. Already!

This is the spec I mentioned when it was listed two weeks ago that claims to have
“Views you have only dreamed of” (making their debut today)

6820 N Los Leones Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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another day, another contract in Pima Canyon

Today it’s 2162 E Sentry Ridge Court’s turn. It’s a 2009 built spec, (and in good company on Sentry Ridge which has seen more than its share of specs, but more on that later) that was first listed (well before it was completed) in the easy-breezy days of January 07 for the not so easy-breezy price of $2,800,000 ($612/sf)

And as with many other high-end homes that were dreamt up during the boom years it sat around enduring one price reduction after another, and going nowhere, until 11 days ago when it was relisted and reduced to $1,550,000 ($339/sf), from $1,755,000. And presto, it’s gone.

And it’s a beautiful house too, with a very striking and distinct design that, though it wouldn’t appeal to everyone, I’m sure it would have sold long ago had it been more reasonably priced, long ago.

2162 E Sentry Ridge Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

That makes 5 homes in contract in PC, from $939,000 to $1,550,000
+ 5 sold in the last 3 months, from $1,038,000 to $2,325,000.
No doubt, the market in Pima Canyon is kicking into gear.

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it’s not a spec home and it’s not a custom built, what is it

It’s a to-be-built, and there are 3 to-be-builts for sale right now in the foothills.
They’re not specs, because they won’t be built until a buyer comes along who likes the lot and the existing plans (hence, also not a custom built) and trusts the builder enough to sign a contract and put down a big down payment and then make progress payments – all the while waiting 16 months or more for it to get done. Who could resist.

2981 E Plaza Encantada Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

4045 E Coronado Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

1407 E Desert Garden Drive Tucson, AZ 85718
(Tierra Antigua Realty)

And perhaps not having complete faith themselves that it’s going to fly, two of the builders have hedged their bet by listing the lots for sale separately – so you can do it the old fashioned way, buy the lot, pick your own builder and build what you want.  

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a spec home sells

Back in March when 6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place was listed I said, “You’d think that anyone thinking about building specs these days should first have their head examined. But if you can do it for this price, make a decent product, and still make a buck, then go for it”

I have no idea if they made a buck or not but Sutherland Ridge did sell today. It went for $950,000 ($198/sf) off a $999,000 list price, reduced from the $1,095,000 it was listed for in March. I have to wonder though, at $198/sf, can you buy the lot (they paid $245k for it) prep the lot, build this house, finance the whole deal, pay commissions and closing costs and whatnot and still make enough to make it worthwhile?

Or maybe they figured that it was such a good deal at the original list - $1,095,000 - that it would sell at or very close to that, or maybe even over list. I wouldn’t have disagreed.
That seemed possible back then, but that was March and things were looking up in March.
  

6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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to each his own

6520 N CALLE DE LA LLUVIA, a spec home in Alta Vista, sold yesterday for $925,000 off a $919,000 list price. I’m guessing the bump in price was due to some additional amenity or feature or something that the buyers requested, and not due to a mini bidding war.

Calle de LLuvia is in that tiny northeast section of Alta Vista that is zoned CR-4, allowing multiple homes/acre – rather than the majority of Alta Vista that’s zoned CR-1. This lot is 10,000 sf, just under a quarter acre.

And as you can see it’s a tight fit with the homes butting right up to the lot lines – the X is where this house is parked,

but as they used to say in Detroit, there’s a butt for every seat

6520 N CALLE DE LA LLUVIA Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

Meanwhile, they’re kicking butt in Pima Canyon,
7501 N Whisper Canyon Place, on 1.3 acres, sold yesterday after dangling the for sale sign for just 8 days. First time on the market, Whisper Cyn was listed at $1,349,000 and sold for $1,200,000 ($292/sf). This is the 6th sale in PC since mid June (the off season) + there are three homes in contract.
7501 N Whisper Canyon Place Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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new spec home goes to contract

yes a spec, built this year and listed at $999,000 ($209/sf), wow $209/sf, how are resales going to compete with that

6650 N Sutherland Ridge Place , Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

It was listed this past March at $1,095,000 and dropped to $999 two weeks ago.

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for those who are not hunkering down

6151 E Finisterra is a brand new spec home in Finisterra, really, a NEW spec completed just 6 months ago

And at 8921 sf/6 Beds-7.5 Baths/it’s bigger than your average spec and bigger than your average anything, spec or otherwise

It was first listed in Feb 2010 – for $4,200,000 – but back then it was in the early days of construction, so who could tell – and it caught my eye today when it came back on, again at $4,200,000 ($470/sf)

 

 

6151 E Finisterra Tucson, AZ 85750
(listed by Long Realty)

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inquiring minds want to know

What’s up with 1714 E Barrel Cactus Court. It expired on June 30th - range priced from $2,998,000 to 3,284,000 - and we haven’t seen hide nor hair of it since.

Barrel Cactus is a gorgeous contemporary styled spec on one of the very best lots in Pima Canyon - (and not scrimping, like many spec builders do, the sellers paid $1.3 for the 3.22 acre lot in 07). Then the house was built in 2010, but listed a full year before it was completed for $3,995,000 – ($642/sf).

1714 E Barrel Cactus Court Tucson, AZ 85718
(was listed by Russ Lyon Sotheby's Int Realty)

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no one holds out forever

A 2009 built spec home in Hacienda del Sol estates, 3199 E Corte De Andalucia, started out two years ago asking $1,795,000. But with today’s cut it’s down to $1,195,000 ($250/sf). And for the first time the listing says
SELLER MOTIVATED – MAKE AN OFFER

3199 E Corte De Andalucia Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

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the changing face of Camino Escuela

Built in 2006 as a spec home, 4907 N Camino Escuela sold for $1,371,150 in 06, then for $1,250,000 in 2008 and it was listed yesterday for $1,149,000.

That’s it under construction with the new black roof,

The street, Camino Escuela, is home to some of the oldest estates, some of them Joesler estates, in the foothills. And many of them are, or were, on larger tracts of land-  5, 10 and more acres. Cmo Escuela is also one of the few remaining dirt roads in the Foothills. The long time residents like it that way, original old foothills style, and it keeps the looky lous away.

And even though this home is on more than an acre, it was built to be pretty cozy with its three neighbors, going so far as sharing a common driveway.  
And had the real estate market not crapped out I’m sure that more homes would have been built up along Escuela.

4907 N Camino Escuela Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Long Realty)

making a comeback

4733 N Camino Antonio N was listed about a month ago for $625,000 and already 
it’s in contract.

But last time round, in July 2006, when it was a brand new spec home, it was listed at – the guaranteed to go nowhere price of - $1,150,000

and it went nowhere, until Feb 2010 when it finally sold for $562,000 as a short sale.

I saw it back in its glory days and I remember it well because it was so obviously not a million $$ house, not even close. I wrote about here > clearing out the bargain bin

But now, at $625k or thereabouts, sure.

4733 N Camino Antonio N Tucson, AZ 85718
(listed by Tierra Antigua Realty)

head and shoulders above the rest

The AZ Star ran an article yesterday on the 13,350 sf house in the
Canyons that’s listed for $9,995,000 – 7582 N Secret Canyon Drive Tucson, AZ 85718. (Listed by Long Realty)

 At $10M, mansion could be tough sell

‘Opulence abounds inside the home, which has 24,000 square feet under its roof. Gold-leaf accents gleam in hallways and on doorways. Antique marble brought from Europe encases fireplaces. In the foyer, a scene depicting ruins, perhaps in an ancient Roman town, has been hand-painted onto walls. Marble columns, also European antiques, …’

At $9,995,000 it’s the highest priced listing in the Foothills and also the highest in the entire Tucson metro area. By a bunch. There are just 3 homes listed above 6 million – at $6.2, at $6.5 and Secret Canyon at $9,995,000 – and we have front row seats for all three – because they’re all in the foothills.

And this is a return engagement for Secret Canyon. It was originally listed in June 2009 for $13,500,000 and held there until July 2010, when it left the market.

One other fact not mentioned in the Star article – the highest sale ever in the Tucson Foothills for a single family home listed and sold thru the Tucson MLS is $3,800,000. And two homes sold at that exact price. But that’s it, nothing higher. (there were a few other higher priced sales elsewhere in the Tucson area – the highest was a $4.950 sale at Saguaro Ranch – which otherwise and despite all the hoopla, never got off the ground, at least not as planned)

And while I can’t be absolutely sure of the thinking and impetus for building Secret Canyon, or the other super-luxe homes for sale in the foothills, given the timing of their construction, it’s obvious the plans for many of them were hatched during the boom with the expectation of raising the bar ever higher. What’s the plan now.

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Alta Vista spec – yet to be completed - goes to contract

On the market just 86 days, 6101 N Paseo Zaldivar is reported under contract from a 2,150,000 ($362/sf) list price. (listed by Long Realty)

On a 1.1 acre lot/5,935 sf/5 Beds-5.5 Baths/pool-spa/4 car/to be completed in late spring

That’s the first spec in many moons to go to contract prior to completion – Congratulations!

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the new ‘non speculative’ spec home

it’s not really a spec home & it’s not a custom home either.
It’s a TO BE BUILT home – a byproduct of the real estate bust.

It’s kinda like a custom home because it won’t be built until a buyer comes along and lays down a nice fat deposit. And it’s kinda like a spec because the lot, the price, the design, the square footage, amenities, etc have all been decided and drawn up ahead of time. It just hasn’t been built yet.

And like a custom home the buyer may have an opportunity to make some limited changes and choose their preferred finishes and so on.  Oh, and they get also to wait around for a year or so until it’s built. So it’s hybrid house, part spec, part custom.

It’s a safer bet for builders because they start with a buyer, and cash in hand, before they start swinging their hammers. But they also get some of the headaches of building a custom home. Like having to deal with, get the approval of and satisfy the buyer every step of the way. Because now it’s the buyers house they’re building, not their own - I’ll do it my way - spec house.  A big difference. And a difference that many spec builders will have a tough time dealing with, if they attempt it at all.

And being on the cutting edge, as we are, we now have two of these new hybrids for sale in the foothills,

2981 E Plaza Encantada Tucson, AZ 85718  $1,100,000

4045 E Coronado Drive Tucson, AZ 85718  $1,378,00

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tucson foothills spec homes, you’ve come a long way baby

In August 2008 – just before it all hit the fan – I did a post titled - the land of opportunity, Tucson Foothills spec homes - where I wrote
‘In the last few months I've given a lot of coverage (some would say too much) to the million$+ spec home market here in the Tucson Foothills. I did it because there are unmistakable signs of vulnerability in this category. And along with that there's opportunity. And now unfortunately, though it was inevitable - two of these million$+ spec homes have been listed as short sales.

I count 27 new vacant million$$+ spec homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills. And amongst them, I see opportunities to make some very good deals. New, old and in between, there are 128 homes for sale in the Tucson Foothills priced at $1,000,000 and UP’ (August 2008)

That was then. And since then those perceived opportunities became reality and many buyers stepped up and took advantage of them, with many of those high-end spec homes selling for cheap and ending up as very good deals. And along the way short sales and foreclosures – which were a novelty back then - became commonplace in our high-end real estate market. And in fact, they’ve become the preferred way to go for many high-end buyers.

But from all that turmoil has come a lot of improvement in the market. Particularly lately. We’re now down to 11 vacant spec homes for sale at a million+ and, including specs and re-sales, we’re down to 86 homes for sale at a million bucks or more. (and of the 11 specs for sale today, just one is a leftover from that hot day in August 2008)

And most importantly, most buyers aren’t sitting on the fence anymore. When a good deal comes along they recognize it and go for it. They realize that, while we may not be at the very bottom, when a house comes along that’s right for them and priced right too, that it’s time to make a move.

Right now in the Tucson Foothills there are 13 homes priced at a million $$ or more in contract. 4 of them are in Pima Canyon alone – and we haven’t had 4 homes in contract in PC since I don’t know when.

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