The Catalina Foothills

In Contract Last Week, 4/17 - 4/23/2023

From Monday April 17 thru Sunday April 23, 18 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 5/2

6 were listed from $400,000 to $585,000
8 from $695,000 to $999,500
4 from $1,390,000 to $4,650,000

Though fewer than in recent weeks, 4 of the homes that went to contract last week were also just listed last week. All 18 homes went to contract in an unusually high 43 median DOM. The homes that didn't immediately fly off the shelf were on the market 9, 16, 29, 42, 51, 64, 87, 230, 231,193, 223, 246 days.

So quite a mix of slow, medium and fast movers. Kinda like a normal market.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

25 Homes Sold in Last 2 Weeks

Homes sold in the last 2 weeks are likely the result of deals that were made from around early to late March with maybe a cash deal or 2 in early April.

Listed	Sold	DOM
399,900	387,500	16
400,000	405,000	45
450,000	445,850	109
445,000	440,000	5
525,000	494,000	138
499,000	499,000	8
495,000	515,000	8
529,900	529,900	6
540,000	530,000	2
540,000	540,000	2
585,000	590,000	7
630,000	650,000	2
699,999	685,000	107
699,900	694,900	2
700,000	700,000	5
795,000	735,000	57
720,900	757,519	193
825,000	816,000	1
1,000,000	937,000	122
949,000	969,000	2
1,100,000	1,100,000	4
1,149,000	1,100,000	28
1,299,888	1,250,000	7
1,700,000	1,593,735	251
1,989,000	2,200,000	40

25 Homes Sold
(link expires 5/23/2023)

 5 Sold at List Price
13 Sold under List Price
 7 Sold over List Price

MSP is $685,000 // in 8 MDOM

$685,000 is a big drop from $770,000 MSP in the March 28 report as well as the $767,500 MSP in the March 6 report. 

What gives. Have prices dropped that much? No they have not. 
In the report shown above 11 homes or 44% were listed and sold for less than $600,000. In the March 28 report just 2 homes or 13% were listed and sold for less than $600,000 and likewise in the March 6 report which had 4 homes or 15% listed under $600,000.
When a high % of lower priced homes sell, like they did in the last 2 weeks, it pushes the median sold price down. And a drop that is based on just 2 weeks of sold numbers - is way too short a time period to draw any conclusions about where prices are headed. 

The good news is that more lower priced home buyers are finding ways to purchase homes in the Catalina Foothills. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

In Contract Last Week, April 10 - April 16, 2023

From Monday April 10 thru Sunday April 16,  20 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 5/20/2023)

5 were listed from $374,900 to $597,000
7 from $649,000 to $975,000
8 from $1,299,000 to $2,275,000

Once again 11 of the homes that went to contract last week were also just listed last week. Overall the 20 homes went to contract in 15 DOM. 

We're in the thick of our spring season, a time when more buyers are in the market and more homes go to contract. And with the continued tight supply of homes for sale there is increased motivation for buyers to act quickly. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Home Sales at $1,000,000 & UP

Catalina Foothills Single family home sales at $1,000,000 & UP from Jan 1 - April 15

Year	# Sold	MSP	DOM	*% SP/OLP	% Sold Cash
2023	39	$1,450,000	21	96.5	41%
2022	69	$1,315,000	5	99.5	55%
2021	52	$1,380,278	10	97.4	50%
2020	19	$1,260,000	42	95.1	47%
2019	13	$1,450,000	12	94.1	46%

*% Sold Price/ Original List Price 

While sales are down drastically from last year, (blame drastically higher mortgage rates) sold prices and days on market appear to be holding up nicely. DOM numbers have been drifting back to more normal and bearable numbers from the frenzied panic-buying of the Covid era.

Currently there are 51 homes for sale listed from $1,000,000 - $12,500,000, and 40 in contract listed from $1,000,000 to $6,788,000. We continue to have a very active upper-end market. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

In Contract Last Week, April 3 - April 9, 2023

From Monday April 3 thru Sunday April 9 18 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 5/12/2023)

4 were priced from $510,000 to $574,900
9 from $705,000 to $995,000
5 from $1,100,000 to $5,495,000

As we've seen in recent weeks, 9 of the homes that went to contract last week were also just listed last week.

And we may soon see a new high $$$$ sale price,  assuming the home in contract listed for $5,495,000 closes for more that $4,450,000 it will be the highest $$ sale thru the Tucson MLS in the Catalina Foothills ever. We've a had run of new highs in the last few years.
Highest sale prices were reached in a 2021 sale at $4,063,564, in 2022 at $4,450,000 and most recently a 2023 sale for $4,000,000 - all 3 were cash sales and prior to those sales nothing sold at $4mil or more. 

Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 3/27 - 4/2/2023

From Monday March 27 thru Sunday April 2  17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 5/5/23)

6 were listed from $470,000 to $585,000
7 from $685,000 to $985,000
4 from $1,149,000 to $1,350,000

Notably, 7 of the homes that went to contract last week were also just listed last week. Overall the 17 homes went to contract in 27 MDOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Q1 2019 - 2023

OK, here it is, Q1 sales data from 2019 thru 2023 showing *shrunken sales yet with sold prices still holding up and DOM, while not flying off the shelf as they did in 2021-2022, still considerably quicker than pre-pandemic levels. 

Year	# Sold	MSP	DOM
2023	131	763,750	22
2022	207	750,000	6
2021	243	650,000	5
2020	216	543,500	29
2019	184	475,000	55

*due mostly to un-affordably high mortgage interest rates locking would-be sellers into staying put while locking would-be buyers out of purchasing a new home

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

from Fortune, the spring U.S. housing market

From Fortune.com

With the Catchy and aptly titled;
    Home sellers go on strike

BYLANCE LAMBERT

April 2, 2023 at 12:12 PM MST

 

The U.S. housing market has entered into its peak annual spring season where buyers and sellers alike get serious about their moves. Only this year there’s something off: Not a lot of homes are going up for sale.

According to Realtor.com (see chart below), only 349,284 U.S. homes were listed for sale in March 2023. That’s below the 437,270 listed in March 2022—a period which was infamous for its tight supply—and far below the 478,100 listed in March 2019.

What’s going on? Well, sellers have sort of gone on strike.

See, if someone is eager to sell their home right now in search of a new property, they’d likely be giving up their 2% or 3% mortgage rate—one of the biggest financial perks of the pandemic—for a 6% mortgage rate. The idea of getting a substantially larger monthly mortgage payment has a lot of would-be buyers opting to stay put. Cue fewer homes coming onto the market.

That said, this pullback in new listings isn’t just felt on the supply side—it’s also delivering a hit to the demand side. See, if a particular homeowner decides to hold off on trading up properties, it means there is one fewer home going on the market and one fewer buyer hitting the market.

The best way to describe the housing market over the past year is a fight between tight supply and deteriorated affordability. 

So do buyers or sellers have the upper hand?

Continue reading at Fortune.com

Or click the link below to continue reading on this blog, minus the charts shown on Fortune site

 

in contract last week, 3/20 - 3/26/2023

From Monday March 20 thru Sunday March 26  13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 4/28/2023)

3 were priced from $525,000 to $595,500
5 from $759,000 to $900,000
5 from $1,150,000 to $1,750,000

Everything is going.
New listings with 0 to just a few DOM, old listings that have been around for 6, 10 and 12 months or more. Homes listed from $400k to $3.5m, they're all going.

Check out the Market Snapshot for a quick look at the current Supply/Demand picture for Catalina Foothills single family homes.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

15 homes sold in the last 2 weeks

Homes sold in the last 2 weeks are likely the result of deals that were made from early January thru late February 

 

Listed	Sold	DOM
439,900	446,000	3
525,000	496,930	60
640,000	640,000	3
645,000	645,000	170
650,000	680,000	3
775,000	745,000	29
750,000	750,000	0
800,000	770,000	1
799,000	799,000	7
895,000	850,000	8
899,000	875,000	72
1,165,000	1,165,000	12
1,595,000	1,585,000	1
1,699,000	1,625,000	50
3,499,000	3,150,000	373

 

15 Homes Sold
Link expires 4/27/2023

5 Sold at List Price
8 Sold at less than List Price
2 Sold at over List Price

MSP is $770,000 // in 8 MDOM

The following is from an earlier post & still holds true.
Given the circumstances, high mortgage rates, wobbly stock market, uncertain economic future, the foothills single family  home market appears to be a fairly stable market. A market where, for the most part, buyers and sellers are in reasonably close agreement on price, terms, etc. thereby allowing them to make deals rather quickly and move on. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 3/13 - 3/19/2023

From Monday March 13 thru Sunday March 19  12 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 4/21/2023)

4 were listed from $400,000 to $540,000
4 from $699,999 to $995,000
4 from $1,100,000 to $2,495,000

Buyers are chomping at the bit for attractive, reasonably priced homes - Notably, 5 of the homes that went to contract last week were also just listed last week. Overall the 12 homes went to contract in 12 MDOM.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

so far this year

Jan 1 - March 16 / Catalina Foothills single family home sales 

YEAR	# SOLD	MSP	DOM
2023	106	$737,000	22
2022	151	$730,000	5
2021	192	$631,500	7
2020	168	$533,250	32
2019	134	$470,000	64

If it wasn't for the big drop in the # of homes sold so far this year 2023 would look like it's off to a pretty good start. 
But because they are affecting both buyers and sellers high mortgage interest rates are the primary cause of slumping sales. Slumping eh? - down 30% from 2022 // down 44% from 2021

First, high rates are preventing many would-be sellers from listing their homes for sale - thereby contributing greatly to the continuing low inventory - because they are unwilling, and reasonably so, to trade their current +/-3% rate for a +/-6% or higher rate to purchase another home. So many sellers are staying put, resulting in fewer homes being listed for sale resulting in an ongoing ".... not much to pick from" market for foothills buyers. 

Next, if they do find a home to buy high rates are making mortgages unaffordable for many buyers.

Let's look at some round numbers.
MSP in the foothills is currently $737,000 -20% down that's $147,400 leaving a mortgage of $589,600.
**Not including taxes, Insurance, HOA fees, assorted closing costs, etc.

At 3% a 30 year interest/principal/only mortgage payment is $2,485/month 

At 6% a 30 year interest/principal/only mortgage payment is $3,922, +57% or $1,437 more $$/month.

Of course if you're a cash buyer you're sitting pretty. No mortgage rates to get in the way and a pretty good chance to make a better deal than a mortgage buyer. 38 of the 106 sold this year were cash sales.

On the outskirts of reality I've heard talk, not from buyers but from others with a vested interest, that the jump from 3% to 6% or so is no big deal, it's just a mindset adjustment, kind of a just think about it differently and it'll go away.

Yah sure, tell it to those struggling to afford a mortgage, see what they say, "&XX**SSZ*&^^%T&[email protected]!!"

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

mortgage rates freezing the market

a good read from FORTUNE
Homeowners who held onto a 3% mortgage rate are becoming 'accidental landlords'

BYALENA BOTROS
March 13, 2023 at 3:02 PM MST

The era of lower-than-ever mortgage rates is long gone, and it’s been replaced with rates hovering around 7%. But homeowners who locked in lower rates before or during the Pandemic Housing Boom aren’t selling. In fact, some of them are becoming “accidental landlords,” simply because they don’t want to lose their low rates of the past. 

That being said, the so-called lock-in effect is putting pressure on both sides of the market. There aren’t as many buyers looking for new digs and not as many sellers looking to move up or downsize, if they’ll get stuck with a mortgage rate more than twice as high as their old one.

Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather told Fortune that high rates are constricting activity. “They’re looking at their monthly payment, which is quite low if they locked in a 3% mortgage rate compared to what their monthly payment would be if they sold and bought again, which would be quite high given how high mortgage rates are,” Fairweather said. “And it just makes a lot of sense for them to hold on to that low interest rate.”

Although rates are down from their 7.37% peak, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate came in at 6.57% on Monday. According to Goldman Sachs, 99% of borrowers have a mortgage rate lower than 6% (or the current market rate). Of those, 28% locked in rates at or below 3% and 72% locked in rates at or below 4%. 

So if you took on a $700,000 mortgage with a 7% rate, your total monthly payment would be $4,657. But with the same size loan at a 4% rate, your monthly payment would be $3,342. Let’s say it’s a 3% rate with the same size loan, your monthly payment would be $2,951. It’s the golden-handcuffs of mortgage rates, and it’s keeping homeowners with low rates from selling and turning some into landlords.

Fairweather said there’s both anecdotal evidence and data showing that homeowners are holding on tight to their low rates. For example, new listings of homes for sale fell 21.7% year-over-year for the four-week period ending March 5, making it the biggest decline in two months, according to Redfin. In the same period, the biggest declines were seen in Sacramento (at -45.6%), Oakland (-44.5%), Portland (-42.3%), San Jose (-42.1%), and Seattle (-41.2%). 

Michael Zuber, author of One Rental at a Time and former tech worker turned real estate investor, told Fortune that a 30-year fixed mortgage at a rate of 3% is without question one of the best assets most homeowners will ever have.
Continue reading at Fortune.com

Or click the link below to continue reading on this blog

in contract last week, 3/6 - 3/12/2023

From Monday March 5 thru Sunday March 12 , 18 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 4/14/2023)

5 were listed from $495,000 to $560,000
7 from $745,000 to $959,000
6 from $,1000,000 to $1,800,000

yet another busy week for buyers and sellers across a wide range of foothills home prices going to contract in just 13 MDOM  

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

42 homes sold in the last 4 weeks

How did they sell?

16 sold for cash - with sold prices from $430,000 to $2,250,000

25 sold with a mortgage - with sold prices from $370,000 to $1,550,000

1 sold for something of value that was not identified, listed only as Other and valued at $550,000

The point is, even with rates at +/- 6%, buyers are getting mortgages, or at least they were 30 - 60 days ago when these mortgages were taken.

Also, the MSP for the 42 sold is $805,000 in 14.5 DOM, 

42 SOLD
(link expires 4/12/2023)

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 2/20 - 3/5/2023

From Monday February 20 thru Sunday March 5 , 29 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 4/7/2023)

7 were listed from $474,900 to $599,000
14 from $625,000 to $950,000
8 from $1,030,000 to $3,499,000

Pricewise, a very well rounded group of homes going to contract - and they did it in a reasonably quick 19 MDOM

+ A bit of news,
This Blog and many other Tucson Real Estate Blogs were recently listed by Feedspot as the
20 Best Tucson Real Estate Blogs and Websites

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

26 homes sold last 2 weeks

Homes sold in the last 2 weeks are likely the result of deals that were made from early January to early February

Listed	Sold	DOM
367,400	370,000	2
549,000	540,000	41
560,000	550,000	7
565,000	575,000	9
610,000	595,000	5
630,000	615,000	4
649,000	625,000	2
650,000	635,725	42
675,000	600,000	98
699,000	699,000	10
710,000	690,000	30
723,000	697,000	55
750,000	735,000	6
800,000	800,000	6
825,000	810,000	4
833,600	833,600	4
839,500	811,500	23
850,000	900,000	3
850,000	835,000	4
1,025,000	1,000,000	11
1,100,000	1,125,000	150
1,150,000	1,150,000	6
1,550,000	1,550,000	63
1,550,000	1,550,000	17
1,600,000	1,450,000	22
2,250,000	2,250,000	3

 

26 Homes Sold
(link expires 4/5/2023)

7 sold at list price
17 sold at less than list price
2 sold at over list price

MSP is $767,500 // in 8 MDOM

Given the circumstances, high mortgage rates, wobbly stock market, uncertain economic future, the foothills single family  home market appears to be a fairly stable market. A market where, for the most part, buyers and sellers are in reasonably close agreement on price, terms, etc. allowing them to make deals rather quickly and move on. 

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Mortgage advice from Bloomberg

I do not offer advice or an opinion, one way or the other, regarding the info contained in the following article. I merely offer the article for you to have another point of view to consider.
John Schneider/Realtor
Tierra Antigua Realty
Tucson AZ

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mortgage Lenders Are Selling Homebuyers a Lie

“Buy now, refinance later” isn’t good advice.

By Alexis Leondis

March 4, 2023 at 6:00 AM MST

“Marry the house, date the rate.” That’s the advice realtors and mortgage lenders are giving worried homebuyers as mortgage rates reapproach the two-decade high of 7% reached in November. In other words, don’t be afraid to commit to the house you love, because you can just refinance when rates come down in the next couple of years.

But frankly, it’s bad advice. New homeowners may come to find they’re in a longer-term relationship with today’s rate than they expected.

Yes, for the last 10 years (before last year’s uptick) rates were much lower, averaging 3.78%. But that doesn’t mean they’ll drop back to those levels anytime soon. In fact, the bond market is starting to price in higher benchmark interest rates following stronger economic data.

Refinancing calculations are also more complex than most realtors and lenders like to admit. While lenders typically say a borrower only has to cut the current rate by a 1/2 or full percentage point to save on monthly payments (and recoup the closing costs charged to refinance), Freddie Mac deputy chief economist Len Kiefer says it’s more like 1.5 percentage points to really make a refinance worth it in the long term.

Plus, there are other variables that make it more than just a simple rate calculation: What’s the lender charging for closing costs? How long do you plan on staying in the house?

Closing costs typically include an origination fee, home appraisal and title search, among other expenses, and can range from 2% to 6% of the loan amount. With an average refinance loan size of about $264,000, lenders could be looking at paying an upfront cost of at least $5,000. So if you refinance to save $150 a month, it would take you 33 months, or almost three years, to pay that off.

A handful of online lenders and credit unions are offering to pay for some or all of those refinancing costs if rates drop within a specified period of time, but that’s a dubious bet. Much will depend on whether the Federal Reserve tames inflation, whether the US enters a recession, and unpredictable geopolitical events.

Continue Reading at Bloomberg.com

Or

A Snow Day, and in March no less

I woke up to this beautiful and seldom seen sight

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Heads-Up on Jan - Feb Home Sales (Up-Dated)

 UPDATED 3/3/2023
this year (1/1/23 - 2/28/23) 74 single family homes Sold at $727,000 MSP in 29 DOM
V.
last year (1/1/22 - 2/28/22) 119 single family homes sold at $710,000 MSP in 7 DOM

This Jan-Feb;
-38% drop in homes sold 
+2.4% increase in MSP 
+314% increase in DOM 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

In Contract Last Week // 2/13 - 2/19/2023

From Monday February 13 thru Sunday February 19 , 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 3/25/2023)

4 were listed from $525,000 to $599,900
5 from $723,000 to $950,000
2 at $1,025,000 & $1,950,000

Those 11 homes went to contract in a pretty long 61 median DOM - with individual DOM ranging from a low of 5 DOM to a high of 256 and just about everything in between. Oddly enough, I think the higher DOM figures are at least partly due to the continuing shortage of desirable homes for sale. Which is causing some buyers, those that need to put a roof over their heads, to now reconsider homes that weren't their 1st choice a month or two ago, but since nothing better has come along they're now doing the best they can to make do with what they can get. 
And after 60 - 100 or more DOM some sellers are making their homes more desirable by dropping their prices and/or looking more favorably on offers they may have rejected in the past. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Single Family Home Prices

This article from CNN does a nice job of walking us thru the twists and turns of the real estate market over the last couple of years. And, thankfully, except for one expectation from Lawrence Yun chief economist at NAR, it does not make predictions about the future.

CNN BUSINESS

Prices for single-family homes are falling in these cities

By Anna Bahney, CNN

Updated 9:17 AM EST, Mon February 20, 2023

 

Washington, DCCNN — Home prices are going up across the country — in aggregate. Looking at individual markets, however, some are showing prices have fallen from a year ago.

Single-family median home prices increased 4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago to $378,700. Prices were strongest in the Northeast in the last quarter, up 5.3%; followed by the South, up 4.9%; the Midwest, up 4% and the West, up 2.6%, according to the National Association of Realtors.

But drill down to the market level and it’s clear that prices in some areas are declining from the prior year. The positive regional numbers mask that about 11% of individual housing markets tracked by NAR — 20 of 186 cities — experienced home price declines in the fourth quarter of last year.

“A few markets may see double-digit price drops, especially some of the more expensive parts of the country, which have also seen weaker employment and higher instances of residents moving to other areas,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.

Nearly all of the most expensive places to buy are in the West and half of the 10 most expensive cities are in California. Several of those places are seeing prices fall the most.

San Jose, California, was the most expensive place to purchase a home in the United States in the fourth quarter. But that median price of $1,577,500 is actually down 5.8% from a year ago — and prices there have already dropped 17% from the peak $1,900,000 median price in the second quarter of last year, according to NAR.

=============================================================

In the Catalina Foothills (85718 / 85750)
Q4 2022 median sold prices were up 6.2% over Q4 2021 // $741,250 v $697,575

however, 
Q4 2022 MSP is down 10% from its short lived tippy-top peak in June/July of 2022 // $741,250 v $825,000
=============================================================

There is a lot more to this article, 
Continue Reading it at CNN BUSINESS

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

In the News

Confused about where the real estate market is headed. You're not alone, everyone is. And while the following articles won't sort it all out they may at least offer some food for thought while showing the wide range of opinions among the experts.

=============================================================================

From Bloomberg

By Conor Sen

February 14, 2023 at 4:00 AM MST

Higher Mortgage Rates Is What the Housing Market Needs Now

Homebuyers are more resilient than expected. Costs will have to rise again to choke off demand and bring inflation down to the Fed’s target.

The surprise of January was how strong the economy started off the year — particularly the housing market. All it seemed to take for buyers to come flocking back  was for 30-year-mortgage rates to ease to near 6% after reaching as high as 7.25% in October.

Mortgage purchase applications are rising again. The glut of existing homes we expected as the market slowed last year never materialized. Homebuilders’ stocks have surged. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now believes home prices will fall by 6% from the peak, rather than its previous forecasted of a 10% decline. The housing analytics firm CoreLogic is even predicting a rise in home prices in 2023.

It seems the housing market is making clear what it needs to cool down: higher mortgage rates.

The strength in the housing market is an unwelcome development in the Federal Reserve’s fight to lower inflation to 2%. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke last year about the need for a "reset" in the housing market. To the extent the Fed’s tweaking of interest rates is meant to help balance the market, the evidence so far in 2023 is that a rate of 6% is too low. To keep the economy from overheating, mortgage rates around 6.5% — their closing level on Friday — get closer to the mark.

 Continue Reading at Bloomberg.com
subscription may be required

========================================================================

From Fortune

Zillow says the home price correction is winding down—here’s what 28 other forecast models have to say

BY LANCE LAMBERT
February 13, 2023 at 11:18 PM MST

Almost every month for the past year Zillow has revised its 12-month home price outlook downward. That finally changed on Monday.

Heading forward, Zillow economists now expect U.S. home prices to rise 0.5% between January 2023 and January 2024. That’s slightly improved from its previous 12-month outlook of a 1.1% decline.

This upward revision by Zillow, coupled with slightly improved mortgage purchase application data, is why Fortune once again tracked down the latest home price forecasts from 29 of the nation’s leading real estate researchers. Among those forecasters, six expect U.S. home prices to grow or remain flat in 2023, while the other 23 believe U.S. home prices have further to fall. (You can find our prior forecast round-up here).

Realtor.com: The economics team at Realtor.com predicts that the median price of existing homes will rise 5.4% in 2023 while mortgage rates average 7.4%.

Home.LLC: The firm predicts U.S. home prices will rise 4% in 2023

CoreLogic: The real-estate data firm predicts that U.S. home prices will rise 3% between December 2022 and December 2023. (Here is CoreLogic's latest risk assessment for the nation's 392 largest regional housing markets.)

NAR: The trade group projects that existing home prices are poised to rise 1.2% in 2023 while mortgage rates will average 6.3%.

Zillow: Economists at the home listing site forecast that U.S. home values will rise 0.5% between January 2023 and January 2024. Below is their regional outlook.

Continue Reading at Fortune.com
subscription may be required

============================================================================

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

In Contract Last Week // 2/06 - 2/12/2023

From Monday February 6 thru Sunday February 12 , 17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 3/16/2023)

1 was listed at $399,900
9 from $635,000 to $815,000
7 from $1,179,000 to $1,950,000

An active week for buyers and sellers across a wide range of foothills home prices

They also ran the gamut of Days on Market, from 0 to 249 DOM
7 homes went to contract in 0 to 3 DOM
3 went in 5 - 10 DOM
2 went in 29 & 67 DOM
5 took 104 - 119 - 170 - 171 & 249 days to find a buyer                                                                                                                                               
It's no secret that the most desirable homes usually sell quickly and the others take longer. Why - some homes are unique, special, be it the style, features, floorplan, whatever, and can take a while to find a buyer looking for that special spiral staircase
- or after being on the market for a long time a recent price cut has finally made a home more attractive (the right price can cure many ills) - and while they've known this for some time from its wide spread coverage in the media, once buyers get here and go out to  look at homes they see how little there is to pick from and realize that if they really want to buy a home in the Catalina Foothills they may, and probably will, have to be more flexible and maybe even start considering how unique and fun it could be to have their very own spiral staircase.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

Sold in the last 2 weeks

Homes sold in the last 2 weeks are the result of deals that were made from around early December to mid January (Updated Feb 11, 2023) 

Listed	Sold	DOM
309,990	305,000	31
349,000	370,000	2
398,000	398,000	22
460,000	439,000	30
575,000	575,000	22
615,000	610,000	3
690,000	675,000	30
799,000	700,000	108
745,000	715,000	63
855,000	835,000	57
1,175,000	900,000	253
859,900	914,000	4
940,000	934,000	28
1,250,000	990,000	72
1,500,000	1,300,000	77
1,475,000	1,467,180	0
1,595,000	1,480,000	46
1,795,000	1,650,000	8
5,500,000	4,000,000	103

19 Homes Sold
Link expires 3/13/2023)

The median sums for that group are;
MSP - $835,000
MDOM - 31
Sold/ Original List Price Ratio - 97.83%

Actual DOM are all over the place and, not surprisingly, where DOM are higher the sold price is often lower, relative to the list price  - though most of the homes listed for less than $1.0m sold at or fairly close to list price - and 2 sold over list. While, mostly, the homes listed for more than $1.0M sold for quite a bit less than list price.

And for the moment, ignoring the severe lack of inventory, these latest sales are looking a bit more like what a normal market looks like. A market where one side, sellers or buyers, don't hold all the cards, and are therefore negotiating to reach agreement. 
But given how quickly homes went to contract last week I wouldn't be surprised to see them sell closer to list price, with less give and take negotiating, than the 19 shown above. We shall see.

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/30 - 2/5/2023

From Monday January 30 thru Sunday February 5 , 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 3/10/2023)

4 were listed from $367,400 to $565,000
7 from $649,000 to $999,500
2 at $1,165,000 & 1,299,999

and the lucky 13 went to contract in a speedy 13 MDOM
MDOM - median days on market

And during that same week there were 15 new listings and 13  of them  went to contract in 3 - 6 DOM.    New listings going to contract that quickly is a pretty good sign of a market that is hungry for more homes for sale.

The week before last, 1/23 - 1/29/2023, they went to contract in just 11 MDOM, let's see what happens this week.

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

January home sales, then and now

Pretty straight forward stuff, sales data for each January from 2018 - 2023 for single family homes Sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 / 85750)

	# Homes Sold	MSRP	DOM	% SP/ OLP
Jan 2023	38	$707,500	29	94.34%
Jan 2022	66	$710,000	12	100%
Jan 2021	85	$638,000	17	98.3%
Jan 2020	55	$577,000	30	96.94%
Jan 2019	50	$508,000	61	95.97%
Jan 2018	52	$537,000	35	95.6%

being neck n' neck with last Januarys sold price makes this January look pretty darn good, but, wild guess, I'm guessing that the small price gap for January will widen as the months go by

Thanks for stopping by
Please get in touch if you would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills market 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/23 - 1/29/2023

From Monday January 23 thru Sunday January 29, 14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 3/2/2023)

10 were priced from $615,000 to $950,000
 4 from $1,400,000 to $2,250,000

Conspicuous by their absence - not a single home priced less than $600k went to contract

Also worth mentioning - the 14 that did go to contract did so in 11 median DOM - quite a drop from recent weeks when, for the 2 week period of 1/9 - 1/22,  27 homes went to contract in 41 median DOM

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/16 - 1/22/2023

From Monday January 16 thru Sunday January 22, 18 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/25/2023)

 2 were priced at $349,000 & $575,000
11 from $600,000 to $850,000
 5 from $1,050,000 to $1,795,000

what difference a week makes,
in the week before last there were just 10 contracts and in the 2 weeks before that there were only 14
Let's call it a slow start to the new year🤞

 

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 1/9 - 1/15/2023

From Monday January 9 thru Sunday January 15, 10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/20/2023)

3 were priced from $309,990 to $549,000
4 from $675,000 to $859,900
3 from $1,195,000 to $1,600,000
median DOM is 37 for this group 

Not awful, but nothing to shout about
During the same week last year 19 homes went to contract
During the first 17 days of 2021 46 homes went to contract
During the first 19 days of 2020 57 homes went to contract

Do the math, 2023 comes in dead last

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the times they are a changing

Recent List & Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / January 2023

The following are the Listed and Sold Prices of the 14 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from January 1 - January 15, 2023

I hope that keeping up with Listed/Sold posts and other market info posted to this blog helps you get a sense of where the Foothills market is now and perhaps shines a bit of light on where it may be going.

Caveat #1, The Listed/Sold reports are a snapshot of recent sales during a short 15 day time period and are just one piece of the puzzle that, on their own, are not intended for anyone to rely on as to where the market is or where it may be going.
Caveat #2, while the sales figures shown are for homes sold in the last 15 days the contracts for those sales were made approx 30 to 60 days ago. E.g., sales closing from 1/1 - 1/15 likely went to contract from around early November to mid December and therefore reflects the market as it was back then.

 

Listed	Sold
385,900	352,000
550,000	545,000
599,000	550,000
625,000	600,000
649,000	630,000
650,000	650,000
785,000	763,750
825,000	825,000
850,000	780,000
895,000	850,000
1,400,000	1,274,500
1,550,000	1,500,000
2,100,000	1,900,000
2,250,000	1.900,000

 

See the sold listings for the 14 homes sold  (link expires 2/16/2023)

  0  sold for over list price
  2 (14+%) sold at list price
12 (85+%) sold for less than list price

Quite a different picture from just 2 months ago when more homes sold for list and over list price

And night & day from the market in May 2022

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 12/26/2022 - 1/08/2023

this post replaces and updates a prior "in contract ... " post dated Jan 6, 2023 that I discovered had incorrect info and has now been deleted.
John Schneider

From Monday December 26 thru Sunday January 8, 14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 2/13/2023)

4 were priced from $350,000 to $575,000
5 from $600,000 to $965,000
5 from $1,100,000 to $5,500,000

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]om
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

the ups and downs of the market

An at-a-glance look at Catalina Foothills single family home sales for the last 2 years / Q1 2021 - Q4 2022 / Tucson, AZ 85718 / 85750

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For more detail, scroll down to or click >> 2022 home sales, the numbers

Thanks for stopping by,

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]om
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

2022 home sales, the numbers

the following are 2022 Quarterly home sales numbers for the Catalina Foothills market,  85718 / 85750

	# Homes Sold	MSP	DOM	List/Sold Ratio
Q1	207	750,000	6	100%
Q2	208	795,000	5	101.88%
Q3	157	775,000	9	98.57%
Q4	140	741,250	20.5	96.44%

*Q4 figures updated 1/07/2023

The big takeaway, Q4 MSP is the lowest it's been this year - now down -6.76% from its high in Q2. Likewise the # of homes sold - down -32.7% from Q2 - DOM up +310% from Q2.

Q2 was the last hurrah for the super red-hot market and now (with hindsight) we can see clearly that we are transitioning to something else. There are lots of theories out there on what that something else is...... Me, I don't predict, but if I did I wouldn't do it in this muddy market. 

Just 2 weeks ago I reported that the Q4  MSP was down -3.44% from Q2.  And it was. And I expected that it would end the year, more or less, at around -3.44%. But now, just 2 weeks later, the Q4 MSP is down -6.76%. Why, how? because the MSP of the homes that sold during the last 2 weeks of Q4, from 12/16 - 12/31, sold at a MSP of $632,750, thereby dragging down the MSP for Q4 to $741,250 from the $772,500 that it was 2 weeks ago. 

On the bright side the yearly MSP for 2022 is way higher than any other year on record

2022 - $770,000 
2021 - $695,000 
2020 - $567,050
2019 - $495,000
2018 - $485,000
2017 - $445,000
2016 - $417,250
2015 - $429,975
2014 - $425,000
2013 - $413,500
2012 - $390,000
2011 - $400,000
2010 - $411,618
2009 - $438,250
2008 - $520,000
2007 - $540,643
2006 - $570,000
2005 - $515,000
2004 - $408,000
2003 - $352,000
2002 - $322,500
2001 - $305,000
2000 - $290,000

 Happy New Year!

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]om
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

The housing market is in a winter freeze ...

says Realtor.com Sr. Economist George Ratiu

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=et5DJ_Gt8L0

Much of what George says is also true here in the Catalina Foothills market.

• high mortgage interest rates combined with high list prices, plus the highly inflated cost of everyday goods and services have priced many buyers out of the market. Yet sale prices are staying high due to the continuing shortage of homes for sale.  And the continuing shortage of homes for sale is exacerbated by would-be sellers not wanting to trade their current home and low rate mortgage, for a hard to find high priced home with a much higher rate mortgage. 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/19 - 12/25/2022

From Monday December 19 thru Sunday December 25, 7 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/27/2023)

1 was priced at $385,900
5 from $695,000 to $895,000
1 at $1,595,000

Ho Ho Ho! 7 sellers & 7 buyers had their Holiday dreams come true

Happy Holidays!

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills
(and only in the Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/12 - 12/18/2022

From Monday December 12 thru Sunday December 18, 11single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/22/2023)

4 were priced $545,000 to $595,000
6 from $625,000 to $850,000
1 at $1,050,000

11 contracts, not bad, better than the week before

Happy Holidays to all

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Waiting for Home Prices to Drop? Bad Strategy

 Bloomberg

By Alexis Leondis

December 13, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST

With mortgage rates  retreating from their highest since 2002 and the US housing market cooling, some buyers are expecting to get a deal next year instead of having to contend with sky-high home prices. Unfortunately, that’s just wishful thinking.

Although most economists think rates have peaked — or close to it — the consensus is that rates will hover around 6.5% or 7% for 30-year fixed mortgages for the foreseeable future.

And on home prices, there’s no reason to think we’ll see big declines any time soon. I surveyed half a dozen economists to find out where home prices are headed in 2023. By and large, most are anticipating prices on average to stay within 5% of where they are now.

One of the most bearish scenarios foresees a 20% drop in prices in 2023. But even analysts who expect a drop of that magnitude think it would be spread out over several years.

That’s little consolation for those who had hoped a big decline in home prices could soften the blow of mortgage rates that have doubled over the last 10 months. Consider this: To keep mortgage payments at the historical share of household income (about 18%), home values would need to drop 39% from where they are currently, according to Zillow.

Continue reading on Bloomberg
may require a subscription

      =====================================================================

As noted in yesterdays post - Foothills Q4 median sold prices are down 3.44% from their peak in Q2 of this year - not terrible, but we'll see where it goes from here. And a good time to see where it goes is right around the corner, the beginning of what has traditionally been our busiest season kicks off in January and runs into May.

And Jan - May is our busy season because 2 things occur- there are more buyers and more sellers in the market. More buyers arrive to buy homes while enjoying our wonderful winter/spring weather and, traditionally, more sellers list their homes for sale during that time because there are more buyers in the market. Supply & Demand.

But if there are too few homes for sale it won't be a very busy busy season. And even now, before the season has begun, there are not enough. And so far there are no signs that a large number of sellers are going to list their homes. And without a sizable increase in inventory there will be more competition for the too small supply of homes which I imagine will keep prices high and once again prove frustrating for buyers. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

heads up on Q4 prices & DOM

While there's still 2 weeks to go before Q4 wraps up the year there's nothing to say that we can't take a peek at where median sold prices and days on market are as we head to the finish line. 
The following Q4 results are based on single family home sales from 10/1/2022 - 12/15/2022

From their peak in Q2 median sold prices are down 3.44% in Q4

From their low in Q2 DOM are up 300% in Q4

The beginning of what has traditionally been our busiest season kicks off in January and runs into May. What with Covid we haven't had a normal winter/spring market since 2019, with an awful lot of ups/downs and changes since then, so it will be interesting and telling to see how things go in the, hopefully, more normal upcoming winter/spring market. Being the busiest time the Jan - May period often sets the tone of the market for the rest of the year and beyond.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 12/5 - 12/11/2022

From Monday December 5 thru Sunday December 11 / just 6 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/12/2023) 

1 listed at $525,000
5 from $649,000 to $999,500
6, that's it!

Wondering, is it the Holidays or the market or just one of those weeks that come along every now and then.

Last year at this time it was also the Holiday season and 31 single family homes went to contract in the 2 weeks from12/6 - 12/19 - that was 2 weeks instead of 1, but with 5 times as many contracts. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

More from Fortune on where home prices are headed

 

BY LANCE LAMBERT

November 29, 2022 at 5:19 PM MST

In June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that the overheated U.S. housing market—which saw U.S. home prices rise over 40% in just over two years—needed a “reset.” And higher mortgage rates, he said, would slowly bring “balance” back to the market.

“We saw [home] prices moving up very, very strongly for the last couple of years. So that changes now… I’d say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together,” Powell said.

While Powell was unsure what the Fed’s housing “reset” would mean for home prices, Fortune speculated it meant prices would fall. It looks like we were right.

According to the latest Case-Shiller report published on Tuesday, U.S. home prices fell another 0.8% in September. That marks the third consecutive monthly home price decline since Powell’s June statement. Prior to 2022, the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index hadn’t published a month-over-month decline since the housing crash bottomed out in 2012.

This latest Case-Shiller report—which found a 2.2% price decline in U.S. homes since June—means we’ve moved into the second-biggest home price correction of the post–World War II era. On paper, it’s tied with the 2.2% drop between May 1990 and April 1991; however, given that the index is a three-month average, we know the October numbers will surpass that mark. That said, it’s still far below the 26% peak-to-trough decline that occurred between 2007 and 2012.

Continue Reading All About it

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Right now the Catalina Foothills single family home market appears to be tilting down. There are fewer sales, more days on market (DOM) and fewer homes selling for list or over-list prices.  To me, for now, this appears to be a market that is correcting its course. Correcting from the unsustainable super-hot market that took off in January 2021 and burned bright and hot til several months ago, when it began to burn less brightly.  Fewer homes selling, longer DOM and lower Sold/List Price Ratios are key indicators of a cooling market. Lower prices often follow. But where it goes from here is anyone's guess. 

2022 Monthly Sold Numbers

2022	# Homes Sold	Median Sold Price	DOM	Sold/List Price Ratio
January	66	$710,000	5	100%
February	53	$715,000	5	100%
March	88	$796,669	5	100%
April	77	$750,000	4	103.23%
May	66	$818,000	5	101.26%
June	65	$811,000	5	101.39%
July	52	$830,000	6	99.75%
August	51	$840,000	10	99%
September	52	$710,000	13	97.49
October	44	$737,000	14	97.22%
November	48	$822,500	20	98.12%

Yep, not a typo, the MSP for November is $822,500

Meanwhile November 2022 sold prices are UP rather than DOWN yet days on market numbers keep climbing even though inventory remains very tight - as shown on the latest Market Snapshot numbers. Nevertheless, I wouldn't bet a nickel on just one months' worth of numbers.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

they were way over due

and I have finally updated the Market Snapshot &  Just Sold

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 11/28 - 12/04/2022

From Monday November 28 thru Sunday December 4 / 21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 1/06/2023)

 6 were listed from $500,000 to $599,000
10 from $600,000 to $825,000
 5 from $1,125,000 to $3,499,000

55 MDOM for the above contracts 

... no-end in sight high interest rates, wobbly stock market, high inflation, mediocre (at best) economic outlook and, despite all that, the Catalina Foothills flips 21 homes, across all price points, into contract. Last week I happily mentioned that 25 homes went to contract during the previous 2 weeks and now, with more good news, we have 21 contracts in one week. 

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

what'll it be, 85718 or 85750 (December 2022)

This is an update of a blog I originally wrote and posted in 2015. Then in January 2022 I updated it and posted it a 2nd time and now, since it is still relevant, I'm recycling it again. 

This new version is updated here and there, mostly regarding the data for home sales. 

The Catalina Foothills is divided into two zip codes, 85718 and 85750, with Craycroft Rd the east/west dividing line between the two - 718 on the west side and 750 east of Craycroft

Most of the buyers I meet have a preference for one or the other or they quickly develop a preference as they investigate the two areas.  And aside from the homes that are for sale in each zip their preference is often based on the look, feel, geographic, topographic, tempo and convenience features of the two areas - which are fairly distinct.

85718 is more developed, with more plazas and a more diverse selection of restaurants, bars, boutiques, shopping and, some would say, more pizzazz.  718 is also closer to Banner Medical Center, The University of Arizona and to downtown Tucson.  And if you’re looking for an older adobe home or a Joesler, you are, with few exceptions, talking about 718. 718 is where John Murphey and Josias Joesler first established the Catalina Foothills Estates, the very first development in the Catalina Foothills in the 1930’s. 718 is also home to many more gated communities than 750.

85750 came later and has its own charms and appeal. With its main shopping, restaurant and retail plaza at one location, at Kolb & Sunrise, it is less developed, less busy with fewer vehicles coming and going and has a calmer, more tranquil atmosphere than 718. For recreation and rejuvenation 750  is home to the hard to beat combination of  Sabino Canyon, Canyon Ranch and Ventana Canyon Golf &  Racquet Club.

And beyond that there are also price differences between the two zips, with more higher priced homes in 85718. And, in general, you may get a bit more home for your money in 750. Though, with the crazy market we've had, who's to say. 

Below on the left side is 85718 with a grand total of 67 single family homes for sale & on the right is 85750 with 51 for sale today, 12/5/2022.

When this post originally appeared in 2015 there were 206 homes listed for sale in 85718 and 192 in 85750..No kidding, the days when you could find a home that you liked, sleep on it, and sleep on it again, and it would still be there in the morning. Now, ???.

Here are the important numbers for 85718 & 85750.
The number of homes sold in the last 6 months (6/1/2022 - 11/30/2022) along with median sold prices and DOM.

85750
162 Homes Sold // $722,500 MSP // 9 DOM

85718
151 Homes Sold // $889,000 MSP // 7 DOM
MSP 23% higher in 718 over 750

Looking back to the same 6 month period in 2019 
MSP $549,000 in 718 
MSP $445,000 in 750
MSP 23% higher in 718 over 750

One more
In 718 MSP rose from $549,000 in 2019 to $889,000 in 2022 - a 61.9% increase, let's call it 62%
In 750 MSP rose from $445,000 in 2019 to $722,500 in 2022 - a 62.3% increase,  ditto

So while median sold prices may be different from each other in 718 & 750, overall price appreciation has been marching in lockstep across the foothills.

85718 & 85750, they’re both in the Catalina Foothills but the look, feel, tempo, home styles and prices of each offer a variety of different options for foothills living. If you’re new to town be sure to check out both areas.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract the last 2 weeks, 11/14 - 11/27/2022

From Monday November 14 thru Sunday November 27 -  25 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - that's 85718/85750 (link expires 12/29/2022)

 6  were listed from $350,000 to $585,000
13 from $600,000 to $999,000
 6  from $1,000,000 to $2,250,000

40 MDOM for the 25 contracts

last year at this time, when the market was getting hotter by the day, 34 homes went to contract 
v. now, with 25 contracts covering a wide range of prices at a time with much weaker economic environment, looks to me like a pretty good showing that may be a vote of confidence from buyers. We'll soon see.

Thanks for stopping by...

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Fortune reports on the latest from CoreLogic research on where home prices are headed

This is the 3rd in a series of articles I've posted from Fortune reporting on CoreLogics outlook on where home prices are headed. 
In previous articles, which started in March, CoreLogic was not overly concerned about where home prices were headed as they identified just 13 markets, out of 385, that had a high to very high risk of declining prices. In May that number jumped to 70 markets and now in November, with 354 markets in high or very high risk territory, it's a whole new ballgame.
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Here's Fortune's summation of CoreLogic's November findings 

The November assessment finds 354 markets have a greater than 50% chance of notching a negative year-over-year reading (i.e. markets in either the "high" or "very high" risk groups) over the next 12 months. That's up from 335 markets in October that had a greater than 50% chance of falling home prices. In August, there were 125 markets at risk. In July, there were 98 markets at risk. In June, 45 markets were at risk. And in May, just 26 markets (see chart above) fell into those "high" or "very high" risk camps.

Read all about it
Where are home prices are headed in 2023—this map shows CoreLogic’s revised outlook for 392 housing markets

BYLANCE LAMBERT

November 22, 2022 at 2:56 AM MST

 

When a buttoned-up Fed economist says the U.S. housing market has entered into a “difficult [housing] correction”, it’d be wise to believe them. When it comes from the lips of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, it’s more of a warning. 

Powell is right: Not only does housing activity continue to plummet, but U.S. home prices are falling for the first-time since 2012.

Unlike the 2000s housing correction, which saw U.S. home prices fall 27% between 2006 and 2012, this ongoing housing correction isn’t underpinned by bad loans nor by a supply glut. Instead, this correction is driven by what Fortune calls “pressurized affordability.” The Pandemic Housing Boom‘s 43% run-up in U.S. home prices combined with spiking mortgage rates has simply pushed affordability beyond what many borrowers can stomach.

The only levers available to depressurize affordability are for either mortgage rates or home prices to fall. In recent months, we’ve seen the latter.

Continue Reading All About it

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Here in the Catalina Foothills sold  prices are up or down depending on the time period being compared
MSP = Median Sold Prices 

MSP's this year
Feb/Mar 2022 - $765,000
Apr/May 2022 - $780,000 +2%
Jun/Jul 2022 -   $825,000 +5.76%
Aug/Sep 2022 - $765,000 -7.27%
Oct/Nov 2022 -  $780,000 +1.96%

Comparing median sold prices from their high point in Jun/Jul  to now, Oct/Nov, shows a -5.4% price drop.
While CoreLogic notes the following regarding price drops from their high point.

Nationally, home prices are down 1.3% from their 2022 peak. At least that’s according to the lagged Case-Shiller reading through August. However, markets like Austin and Reno are down 10.2% and 8.4%, respectively, while markets like Des Moines and Baltimore remain at their all-time highs. (Here’s the shift in the nation’s 400 biggest markets.)

 
Bimonthly prices this year V. last year

Feb/Mar 2021 - $661,000
Feb/Mar 2022 - $765,000 +15.7%

Apr/May 2021 - $700,000
Apr/May 2022 - $780,000 +11.4%

Jun/Jul 2021 -  $715,000
Jun/Jul 2022 -  $825,000 +15%

Aug/Sept 2021 - $680,500
Aug/Sept 2022 - $765,000 +12+%

Oct/Nov 2021 - $695,000
Oct/Nov 2022 - $780,000 +12+%

While sold prices have slid a bit in recent months, when compared to last year sold prices are solidly UP this year over last year. they're UP somewhere between 11% - 15% over last year.

Where we go from here is unknown. And I agree with the statements expressed in the article;
The Pandemic Housing Boom‘s 43% run-up in U.S. home prices combined with spiking mortgage rates has simply pushed affordability beyond what many borrowers can stomach.

and there are just two options, either home prices or mortgage rates must fall. What else is there? 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 11/7 - 11/13/2022

From Monday November 7 thru Sunday November 13 - 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/19/2022)

5 were listed from $400,000 to $595,000
4 from $750,000 to $969,000
4 from $1,200,000 to $2,495,000

and though they took a little longer,
36 median DOM v. 19 DOM the week before last,
homes in all price ranges found a buyer last week

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Recent List & Sold Prices / Catalina Foothills Homes / November 2022

The following are the Listed and Sold Prices of the 22 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from November 1 - November 15, 2022.

I hope that keeping up with Listed/Sold posts and other market info posted to this blog helps you get a sense of where the Foothills market is currently and perhaps shines a bit of light on where it may be going.

Caveat #1, The Listed/Sold reports are a snapshot of recent sales during a short 15 day time period and are just a piece of the puzzle that, on their own, are not intended for anyone to bank on as to where the market is currently or where it may be going.
Caveat #2, while the sales figures shown are for homes sold in the last 15 days the contracts for those sales were signed on the dotted line approx 30 to 60 days prior to when the sale closed. E.g., sales closing from 11/1 - 11/15 likely went to contract from around early September to mid October and therefore reflect the market as it was approx 30 to 60 days ago.
Green Sold prices identify the homes sold for over list. 

 

Listed	Sold
565,000	554,000
670,000	650,000
674,900	668,000
695,000	720,000
700,000	736,000
700,000	700,000
785,000	770,000
799,000	799,000
845,000	800,000
845,000	870,000
894,900	888,000
975,000	900,000
995,000	995,000
1,085,000	985,000
1,200,000	1,200,000
1,295,000	1,305,000
1,449,500	1,395,000
1,545,000	1,450,000
1,750,000	1,700,000
1,800,000	1,740,000
3,700,000	3,381,360.93

 

See the sold listings for the 22 homes sold  (link expires 12/16/2022)

  4 (18+%) sold for over list price (1 more than in October Report)
  4 (18+%) sold at list price
14 (63+%) sold for less than list price

Compared to the October Report - fewer homes sold at list price & way more sold for less than list.
+ a big jump in DOM, from 17 DOM in the October report to 35 DOM for this group.  However, with the Sold/Listed price ratio at 97.14%, prices are holding up pretty well. Speaking of which, BAM!! the median sold price for the 22 sold is a whopping $894,000, UP higher than any previous Listed/Sold report - but, caveat-caveat, it is just 22 sales in 15 days. 

Click to Octobers numbers, when 22 homes also sold in 15 days.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

From CNN Business; It’s a terrible time to buy a house. Here’s what to know if you have to do it anyway

By Anna Bahney, CNN Business

Published 7:01 AM EST, Sat November 12, 2022

There is no sugarcoating it: This is a terrible time to buy a home.

Mortgage rates for a 30-year fixed rate loan are now hovering above 7%, more than 4 percentage points higher than a year ago. That has slashed a typical buyer’s purchasing power by 14%, according to Black Knight, a mortgage data company.

With fewer people able or interested in buying now, home sales have been falling. Just 16% of people say now is a good time to buy a home, a record low, according to a monthly survey conducted by Fannie Mae in October.

Still, that’s barely made a dent in home prices, which soared to new heights during the pandemic and are now just easing off of all-time highs.

Another thing tamping down sales is stubbornly low inventory of available homes for sale, said Jackie Lafferty, a real estate agent with Baird & Warner Real Estate in Chicago.

“It is something I’ve never seen a combination of, this lack of inventory and higher interest rates,” Lafferty said. “There is no motivation for people to move unless they have to.”

But whether people need to move because of a new job, a divorce, an addition to the family or they simply don’t want to give up after years of trying to buy a home, there are still buyers out there.

“Even if sales slow down, real estate doesn’t stop,” said Lafferty. “People need a place to live.”

For those who are pressing on, here are a few ways you can take some of the sting out of buying a home.

Continue reading article

which goes on to discuss, propose various mortgage strategies to help buyers navigate the high rates
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Many of the things noted in the article that are affecting the national real estate market - high interest rates, falling home sales, still high home prices and low inventory - are also playing a role in our Catalina Foothills market, with at least one big difference,

Toward the end the article notes that, according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors 97% of homebuyers over the past year needed to finance their home.

Whereas, in the Catalina Foothills, of the 671 homes sold so far this year, 43% (271 homes) were cash purchases. Which I believe has lessened and may continue to lessen the damaging effects of high mortgage rates on our market and should also tend to make a cash offer even more attractive than it has ever been.  Let's hope!

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 10/31 - 11/ 06/2022

From Monday October 31 thru Sunday November 6,  10 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750 (link expires 12/09/2022)

3 were priced from $475,000 to $499,000
4 from $620,000 to $825,000
3 from $1,195,000 to $2,150,000

they went to contract in 19.5 median DOM

At normal times that would be a pretty weak-week for contracts but with circumstances as they are, high mortgage rates, high home prices, volatile stock market and few homes to choose from, I think it was a pretty good week.

Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
Catalina Foothills Homes
[email protected]
520 271-4164

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)