The Catalina Foothills

in contract last week, 8/15 - 8/21/2022

From Monday August 15 - Sunday August 21,  17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 9/29/2022)

5 were priced from $415,000 to $599,000
11 from $625,000 to $999,000
 1 for $1,190,000

17 in contract, in August, Huh?... looking more like March with interest rates at 2.90% and the stock market on a tear, if only - but it's August (usually one of the slowest months of the year) and they went quickly too, in 7 median DOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in your favorite foothills subdivision

Rather than looking at and evaluating sales data for the entire Catalina Foothills real estate market, which is quite large and diverse, the following individual snapshots focus on sales data for a variety of popular Catalina Foothills subdivisions and compare how each of them performed in the normal pre-Covid market from Jan 1, 2018 - June 30, 2019 to how they performed in the frenzied-red-hot Covid influenced market we experienced from Jan 1, 2021 - June 30, 2022. 

For reference here are the sales numbers for the entire Catalina Foothills market (85718/85750) for that time period;
2018/19 > 1,276 Sold / $490,000 MSP / 34 DOM
2021/22 > 1,377 Sold / $711,000 MSP / 6 DOM
                +8% Sold / +45% MSP / -82% DOM

Click any highlighted subdivision name to see all the homes currently for sale (if there are any) + those that are Active Contingent from the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona).   MSP = median sold price / DOM = days on market

Here we go.

Catalina Foothills Estates 10
2018/19 > 13 Sold / $905,000 MSP / 66 DOM
2021/22 > 21 Sold / $1,425,000 MSP / 8 DOM
               +61% Sold / +57% MSP / -88% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Fairfield
2018/19 > 51 Sold / $459,000 MSP / 15 DOM
2021/22 > 48 Sold / $665,000 MSP /   4 DOM
               -6% Sold / +45% MSP / -73% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Pima Canyon
2018/19 > 24 Sold / $1,227,500 MSP / 123 DOM
2021/22 > 29 Sold / $1,595,000 MSP / 7 DOM
               +21% Sold / +30% MSP / -94% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Shadow Hills
2018/19 > 35 Sold / $590,000 MSP / 19 DOM
2021/22 > 44 Sold / $786,000 MSP / 4 DOM
              +21% Sold / + 33% MSP / -79% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

La Paloma
2018/19 > 70 Sold / $448,150 MSP / 48 DOM
2021/22 > 94 Sold / $638,000 MSP /  6 DOM
              +34% Sold / +42% MSP / -87% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Foothills Clusters
2018/19 > 28 Sold / $339,500 MSP / 12 DOM
2021/22 > 27 Sold / $515,000 MSP / 6 DOM
             -4% Sold / +52% MSP / -50% DOM
----------------------------------------------------------------

Skyline Bel Air
2018/19 > 39 Sold / $502,000 MSP / 43 DOM
2021/22 > 31 Sold / $751,300 MSP / 4 DOM
              -21% Sold / +50% MSP / -91% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Coronado Foothills 
2018/19 > 34 Sold / $554,000 MSP / 33 DOM
2021/22 > 37 Sold / $825,000 MSP / 5 DOM
              +9% Sold / + 49% MSP / -85% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Skyline Country Club Estates
2018/19 > 30 Sold / $735,000 MSP / 125 DOM
2021/22 > 30 Sold / $1,025,000 MSP / 11 DOM
               +/-0% Sold /+39% MSP / -91% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Alta Vista
2018/19 > 27 Sold / $780,000 MSP / 41 DOM
2021/22 > 20 Sold / $961,000 MSP / 5 DOM
              -26% Sold/ +23% MSP / -88% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Flecha Caida
2018/19 > 36 Sold / $502,500 MSP / 19 DOM
2021/22 > 32 Sold / $705,000 MSP / 12 DOM
               -11% Sold / +40% MSP / -37% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Cimarron
2018/19 > 37 Sold / $500,000 MSP / 72 DOM
2021/22 > 37 Sold / $823,900 MSP / 4 DOM
              +/-0% Sold / +65% MSP   / -94% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Ventana Country Club
2018/19 > 54 Sold / $677,000 MSP / 31 DOM
2021/22 > 58 Sold / $910,000 MSP / 6 DOM
               +7% Sold / +34% MSP / -80% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Sabino Mountain
2018/19 > 17 Sold / $436,000 MSP / 32 DOM 
2021/22 > 27 Sold / $540,000 MSP / 5 DOM
               +59% Sold / +24% MSP / -84% DOM
---------------------------------------------------------------

Caveat, Please keep in mind the subdivisions listed represent a small sample of the many subdivisions in the Catalina Foothills and are only intended to illustrate how differently individual subdivisions performed from the overall foothills market and from other subdivisions. Also, individual homes within a subdivision can and do perform differently from other homes within the same subdivision for a variety of reasons. 

That's it for now, though I will probably add more subdivisions over the next few days. I'll list the new ones first, at the top of the list. 

Please contact me if you have a question or would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills real estate market.
Thanks for stopping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your very own Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 8/8 - 8/14/2022

From Monday August 8 - Sunday August 14,  9 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 9/15/2022)

3 were priced from $439,500 to $550,000
6 from $699,000 to $859,000
and that's it, no $7 figure deals last week

DOM took a giant leap from the 5 - 10 median days it's been in recent weeks to 52 median days last week

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 8/1 - 8/7/2022

From Monday August 1 - Sunday August 7,  14 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 9/10/2022)

3 were priced from $407,500 to $589,000
8 from $610,000 to $869,000
3 from $1,100,000 to $1,550,000

10 DOM for that group to go to contract

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Catalina Foothills Home Sales Data Jan - July / 2018 - 2022

Hello and Welcome,

The following charts track the single family home market in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ and include the number of homes sold, median sold prices (MSP) and days on market (DOM) for the period of January 1st thru July 31st of each year from 2018 thru 2022.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

First up  a chart showing the number of homes sold for up to $999,999, which now comprises a shrunken 73% of all the homes sold in the Catalina Foothills. For years, decades, until the latter half of 2020, home sales up to $999,999 comprised +/- 90% of all the homes sold in the Catalina Foothills. The market up to $999k had recovered slowly but steadily from the collapse in 2008 and was doing just fine. But with Covid on the rise fewer sellers were willing to list their primary home and, as the market tightened, they realized that if they did sell they would have an awfully tough time finding and affording a replacement home. All of which led to a shortage of homes for sale, amidst a surge in demand, resulting in fewer sales, bidding wars and rising prices. And more recently the rise in interest rates and the fall/volatility of the stock market continue to put a deep dent in affordability for many buyers. All of which have caused sales to drop 31% from Jan - July last year.

 

 

On the other hand sales at $1,000,000 & UP are Way UP and now represent 27% of the Catalina Foothills market. Of course many of the homes now selling for $1mil+ crossed the line into $1mil+ territory as a result of sharply rising prices during the last couple years.  

 

And here is a look at those sharply rising prices - up 40% since 2019 and 12+% since last year at this time. 

Days on Market remain lower than ever! - Why? because buyers are still feeling the need to move fast to get the home they want. 

 

At the risk of boring repetition I will risk it and end with the same message I left last month

While the above sold numbers are still very strong, the July numbers represent deals that were made 30 - 60 or more days ago - and therefore represent what the market was 30- 60 days ago not what it is today.

On the street, the escrow officers, home inspectors, termite and roof inspectors and others who are involved in the day to day business of supporting the foothills real estate market, their businesses have slowed and they are less busy now than they were back in May > April > March and before. 

It's also summer and traditionally the market slows down in summer. Why wouldn't it, it's too %%@$ HOT.

Stay cool

Please contact me if you have a question or would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills real estate market.
Thanks for stopping by. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Median Sold Prices, Q1 2021 - Q2 2022 + July 22

 

Go figure, they're still going up

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 7/25 - 7/31/2022

From Monday July 25 - Sunday July 31 - 9 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 9/2/2022)

3 were priced from $439,500 to $599,000
5 from $715,000 to $825,000
1 at $1,500,000

another weak week for contracts, but those that did go to contract went quickly, in 9 median DOM - a few more days than at the height of the frenzy but still way faster than any year prior to 2020.

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 7/18 - 7/24/2022

From Monday July 18 - Sunday July 24 - (just) 9 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 8/26/2022)

3 were priced from $750,000 to $969,000
6 from $1,100,000 to $2,750,000

And that's it.
Nothing priced under $750k went to contract - (can you believe that) could be the 1st week ever with no contracts at the lower end of the market. And it doesn't appear to be from lack of supply, there are 44 homes for sale priced from $407,500 to $740,000 and they have been on the market for 28 median days, and counting, looking for a buyer.

And once again the DOM has risen substantially, it's 24 DOM for the 9 that went to contract - when, the week before last it was 10 DOM for the 11 homes that went to contract.

On the other hand homes priced from $1,100,000 to $2,750,000 had a jolly good week. 
There's no doubt (in my mind) the market's changing, fewer contracts, longer market time to get to contract, regular and growing number of price cuts when, until recently price cuts were seldom seen, few, if any, bidding wars, haha long gone what else?

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

recent list and sold prices, Catalina Foothills Homes :July 2022

The following are the list and sold prices of the 26 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from July 6th -  July 19th, 2022 thru the Tucson Association of Realtors® MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona)

the highlighted green numbers are the homes that sold for over list price

Listed	Sold
360,000	360,000
452,000	459,000
480,000	495,108
535,000	562,000
595,000	625,000
625,000	591,000
650,000	700,000
729,000	750,000
760,000	806,500
795,000	770,000
799,000	775,000
825,000	825,000
900,000	970,000
925,000	925,000
975,000	975,000
1,095,000	1,100,000
1,100,000	1,095,000
1,100,000	1,075,000
1,100,000	1,050,000
1,199,000	1,075,000
1,225,000	1,403,075
1,495,000	1,815,000
1,550,000	1,542,300
1,595,000	1,425,000
1,695,000	1,675,000
1,750,000	1,600,000
1,750,000	1,700,000

 

26 homes sold July 6 - July 19, 2022
(link expires 8/20/2022)

11 (42%) sold for over list price
 4 (15%) sold at list price
11 (42%) sold for less than list price

More facts & figures for the period of July 6 - July 19 for 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019

2022
26 sold for $875,000 MSP in 6 DOM
8 (30%) were cash sales

2021
43 sold for $710,000 MSP in 6 DOM
19 (44%) were cash sales

2020
38 sold for $542,500 MSP in 21 DOM
8 (21%) were cash sales

2019
29 sold for $503,192 in 85 DOM
 7 (24%) were cash sales

Click Here, to have a look and compare Julys Listed/Sold numbers with those from May, when 59% sold for over list and 48% sold for cash... those were the days.

Thanks for dropping by

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 7/11 - 7/17/2022

From Monday July 11 - Sunday July 17 - 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 8/19/2022)

2 were listed from $490,000 to $599,000
4 from $630,000 to $799,000
5 from $1,070,000 to $1,750,000

just 11 in contract, and once again the DOM has crept up, now up to 10 DOM for this group - which is still very quick, just not as quick as it's been

and price cuts, which until recently were seldom seen, are becoming a regular feature of "what's happening in the foothills market"
- 19 price cuts last week

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract the last 2 weeks, 6/27 - 7/10/2022

From Monday June 27 - Sunday July 10 - 22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 8/11/2022)

4 were priced from $420,000 to $599,000
12 from $620,000 to $895,000
 6 from $1,185,000 to $2,595,000

they went to contract in 7 median DOM, 2 days longer than it's been for most of the previous 18 months, perhaps another sign of the market softening. 
For more on the state of the market check out the Market Snapshot.  It too shows signs of a softening market, nothing earth shatteringly different, but fewer contracts and sales and an increase in the number of homes for sale leading to a slight increase in the months of inventory (and that's a good thing) v. a few months ago. But stir that up with the typical seasonal slowdown we see at this time of year and, so far anyway, it looks like a pretty gentle softening. 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Catalina Foothills Single Family Homes Sales Data January 1st - June 30th / 2018 - 2022

Hello and Welcome,

The following charts track the single family home market in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ and include the number of homes sold, median sold prices (MSP) and days on market (DOM) for the period of January 1st thru June 30th of each year from 2018 thru 2022.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

First up is a chart showing the number of homes sold for up to $999,999, which now comprises 73% of all the homes sold in the Catalina Foothills. For years and years, until the latter half of 2020, home sales up to $999,999 comprised about 90% of all the homes sold in the Catalina Foothills.
The market up to $999k had recovered slowly but steadily from the collapse in 2008 and was doing just fine. But with Covid on the rise fewer sellers were willing to list their primary home and, as the market tightened, they realized that if they did sell they would have an awfully tough time finding and affording a replacement home. All of which led to a shortage of homes for sale, amidst a surge in demand, resulting in fewer sales, bidding wars and rising prices. And that shortage of homes for sale remains to this day - checkout the Market Snapshot for a snapshot of the current  supply & demand in the Catalina Foothills market. 

 

On the other hand sales at $1,000,000 & UP are Way UP and now represent 27% of Catalina Foothills home sales v. the paltry 8% - 10% of the market $1,000,000+ sales occupied for years.

--The high-end home building/selling frenzy of 2004 - 2007 peaked in 2006 with126 homes sold for $1,000,000+
-- then sales dropped to 92 sold in 07, 56 in 08, 40 in 09 and that was pretty much it for high-end sales, leaving a big supply of unsold high-end homes, many of them spec homes, losing value, dropping prices, going to short sale & foreclosure month after month year after year.

The high-end market never recovered from its collapse in 2008, that is until cash carrying Covid buyers started arriving in mid 2020. And as the demand for high-end homes grew high-end owners began listing their homes,(many of which were 2nd homes) which fueled the buying frenzy and the rapid rise in prices - up 40% +/- since then. And homes that were in the $700k range pre-Covid are now well into the 7 figure range.

The supply of home is still very low, too low for the demand, which continues to support higher prices

homes continue to go to contract quickly because there is very little to choose from, and when a good one comes along buyers pounce on it

And while the above sold numbers are still very strong, the June numbers represent deals that were made 30 - 60 or more days ago - and therefore represent what the market was 30- 60 days ago not what it is today.

On the street, the escrow officers, home inspectors, termite and roof inspectors and others who are involved in the day to day business of supporting the foothills real estate market, their businesses have slowed and they are less busy now than they were back in May > April > March and before. 

It's also summer and traditionally the market slows down in summer. Why wouldn't it, it's too %%@$ HOT.

Stay cool

Please contact me if you have a question or would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills real estate market.
Thanks for stopping by. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 6/20 - 6/26/2022

From Monday June 20 - Sunday June 26 - 12 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 8/1/2022)

1 was priced at $500,000 
7 from $600,000 to $925,000
4 from $1,099,000 to $1,650,000

another week with a small number of contracts, though they did go quickly, in 5 DOM 
they continue to go quickly because the inventory is still very low, very little to choose from, and when a good one comes along buyers pounce on it

stay tuned, little by little the market is changing... 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

the market

the Catalina Foothills real estate market is changing, how could it not. Blame it on the rise in interest rates, the falling and volatile stock market, rising inflation, the war in Ukraine and other unsettling world events. 

After more than 18 months with the number of homes for sale running from the low 60's to the mid 80's, which was down about 60 - 70% from normal pre-covid numbers, in the last 10 days or so the inventory has started creeping back up, and today there are 117 single family homes for sale - more than at anytime since November 2020. It's small but it's a start. 

More homes are getting listed even though it's June, one of most unlikely months for new listings. So why now, I'm guessing that some sellers who were on the fence about selling are now, faced with uncertainty about the future, jumping in before it's too late.

Since June 1st 37 homes listed for sale in the MLS had a price cut, whereas, and here I'm going from memory so ..., from January 2021 thru this April, price cuts were about as frequent, and therefore as memorable, as 75° days in June. The MLS does not make data available on price changes beyond the previous 45 days. 

Recent Sold #'s // Sold June 1 - June 24 / 2021 & 2022
June 2021 - 77 homes sold at MSP of $735,250 in 6 DOM
June 2022 - 50 homes sold at MSP of  $832,497 in 4 DOM 

So sold prices appear to be holding up and DOM are staying down
But for both last June and this June the contracts for those sales were made in April - May, with maybe one or two in early June - and therefore the sold numbers reflect where the market was in April - May, not where it is today.  

And perhaps most telling, almost none of the homes listed in the last  few weeks have the showings and seller response times structured to create the silent auction scenario that was so popular last year and earlier this year -- when it was common to see listings with variations of this language;
ALL OFFERS WILL BE REVIEWED ON 2-10-22. BUT SELLER RESERVES THE RIGHT TO ACCEPT AN OFFER PRIOR TO 2-10-22, SO HURRY! 
or this >offers will be reviewed Sunday Jan 16th at 4pm Please offer highest and best and Include an as-is addendum with the offer. or >> Highest & best Offers being accepted until 1/24/22 at noon and seller will review and respond by 1/25/22 at 6pm. Note house is being sold AS IS, buyer understands that seller will NOT do ANY repairs.

Those were the days, 6 to 10 or more offers, many over list price and more than ever before homes were being sold as-is, no repairs. And now, those days are not quite gone but they're dwindling quickly. Good riddance.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 6/13 - 6/19/2022

From Monday June 13 - Sunday June 19 - 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 7/22/2022)

2 at $480,000 and $595,000
4 from $620,000 to $895,000
5 from $1,125,000 to $2,950,000

looks like one week contract numbers are up, the next week they're down (scroll down to see the numbers for recent weeks)

DOM is creeping up,13 days for the contracts above, higher than last 18 months

 and the inventory is also creeping up, 98 single family homes for sale today, more than at any time in the last 18 months

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 6/6 - 6/12/2022

From Monday June 6 - Sunday June 12 - 22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750 (link expires 7/18/2022)

5 were listed from $360,000 to $549,000
8 from $630,000 to $900,000
9 from $1,095,000 to $1,999,000

22 in contract is a tidy sum for any time of the year but is especially so for a hot week in June and under the current financial/economic/blankblankblank circumstances.  ** there were 25 in contract but 3 fell out

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract the week of 5/30 - 6/5/2022

From Monday May 30 - Sunday June 5 - just 8 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750  (link expires 7/13/2022

4 were priced from $452,000 to $595,000
3 from $675,000 to $975,000
1 at $1,085,000

And that's it, by far the fewest contracts/week of any week during the last 18 months.

Though it looks like it may have just been 'one of those weeks', because the week before, w/o 5/23 - 5/29 15 went to contract and though I haven't posted it yet so far 25 went to contract last week 6/6 - 6/12.

Stay tuned

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Catalina Foothills Home Sales January - May / 2018 - 2022

Hello and Welcome,

The following charts track the single family home market in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ and include the number of homes sold, median sold prices (MSP) and days on market (DOM) for the period of January 1st thru May 31st of each year from 2018 thru 2022.

All of the data is based on sales thru the MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona) and represents all the homes sold by all Realtors® in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (zips - 85718 & 85750)

First up is a chart showing the number of homes sold for up to $999,999, which now comprises about 73% of all the homes sold in the Catalina Foothills. For years and years home sales up to $999,999 comprised about 90% of the foothills market but that started to change in mid 2020 with the arrival of Covid and of Covid buyers. Buyers who were leaving more congested, more expensive cities for the Catalina Foothills and who were prepared to spend more $$ for a home - but with Covid on the rise fewer sellers were willing to list their homes and, as the market tightened and prices rose, they realized that if they did sell they would have an awfully tough time finding and affording a replacement home. All of which led to a shortage of homes for sale, amidst a surge in demand, resulting in fewer sales, bidding wars and rising prices. And that shortage of homes for sale remains to this day - checkout the Market Snapshot for a snapshot of the current  supply & demand in the Catalina Foothills market. 

On the other hand sales at $1,000,000 & UP are Way UP.  Huh, How? Why?
After peaking in 2006 with126 homes sold for $1,000,000+, as the market dropped in 07 and crashed in 08 sales fell to 40 sold in 2009 and bounced along the bottom, with approximately 33 to 53 sold/year until the latter half of 2020 when Covid buyers started snapping them up - resulting in 186 sold for $1,000,000+ in 2021. Also, with home prices up 40+% since 2020, homes that were around $700k back then are now in the $1,000,000 range. 

Low supply - High demand continues to push prices higher

And days on market low

   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

That's it, a snapshot of YTD sales in the Catalina Foothills Single Family Home market.

For more recent info checkout my postings of ".... In Contract last week ..." which show recent contract activity and checkout the Market Snapshot for a breakdown of what's happening in your price range. 

Please contact me if you have a question or would like my help navigating the Catalina Foothills real estate market.
Thanks for stopping by. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

recent list and sold prices, Catalina Foothills Homes

The following are the list and sold prices of the 66 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from
May 1st -  May 31st, 2022 thru the Tucson Association of Realtors® MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona)

the highlighted green numbers are the sold prices of the homes that sold for over list price

Listed	Sold
549,000	650,000
329,900	372,000
340,000	340,000
375,000	385,000
435,000	495,000
458,000	440,000
499,800	525,000
540,000	603,500
549,000	650,000
549,000	565,000
549,000	519,000
549,900	526,000
550,000	555,000
565,000	565,000
575,000	610,000
599,000	650,000
625,000	650,000
625,000	645,000
630,000	600,000
645,000	644,350
645,000	620,000
649,900	778,505
650,000	710,000
650,000	750,000
680,000	755,000
685,000	725,000
689,000	689,000
699,900	673,000
700,000	720,000
725,000	685,000
745,000	873,825
758,000	770,000
760,000	757,000
760,000	910,000
780,000	780,000
795,000	915,000
795,000	811,000
825,000	840,100
839,000	840,000
850,000	975,550
895,000	950,000
925,000	950,000
940,000	910,000
940,000	933,200
950,000	975,000
960,000	950,000
975,000	1,000,000
1,000,000	977,500
1,050,000	1,050,000
1,050,000	1,050,000
1,100,000	1,100,000
1,150,000	1,200,000
1,250,000	1,150,000
1,250,000	1,255,000
1,300,000	1,275,000
1,300,000	1,165,000
1,325,000	1,250,000
1,389,000	1,389,000
1,395,000	1,250,000
1,399,000	1,400,000
1,450,000	1,717,000
1,495,000	1,700,000
1,550,000	1,600,000
1,700,000	1,700,000
1,849,000	1,850,000
3,975,000	3,737,500

66 homes sold in May 2022
(link expires 7/01/2022)

39 (59%) sold for over list price 
  9 (14%) sold  at list price
18 (27%) sold for less than list price

So sales made a very strong showing in May, gosh I'll say, with 59% selling for over list price and the MSP at an all time high of $818,000, and still at just 5 DOM. With that said, please keep in mind that sales are a lagging indicator of the market.. The sales are closing now but the deals, the contracts, that were executed for these sales were likely executed from as early as mid March, for sales that closed in early May to as recently as early May for sales that closed toward the end of May.. 

Contracts being executed now and reported weekly as, "in contract last week ..." along with the Market Snapshot and other current data are a more timely and accurate picture of the current market than are sales based on contracts that were made 30 to 60 days ago. And, as we all know, a lot of not good things have happened in the last 30 - 60 days. 

More facts & figures for May
May 2022;
66 homes sold for $818,000 MSP in 5 DOM - 32 (48%) were cash sales

May 2021;
83 homes sold for $675,000 MSP in 5 DOM - 30 (36%) were cash sales

May 2020;
69 homes sold for $592,500 MSP in 30 DOM - 13 (19%) were cash sales

May 2019;
102 homes sold for $507,375 MSP in 21 DOM - 25 (25%) were cash sales 

PS; there may be a few additional sales that have not yet been turned in, and therefore do not appear here.
I will update as needed in a few days. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Tucson home market overvalued, yet very low chance of prices dropping

hmmm!, that's according to the results of a recent study real estate research firm Core Logic did for FORTUNE magazine.

Keep an eye on these ‘overvalued’ housing markets as the housing boom implodes

BY 

LANCE LAMBERT

May 31, 2022 8:26 AM MST

Fundamental economics tells us that home price growth and income growth are interwoven. Neither can outrun the other for very long. That is what’s concerning about the pandemic’s housing boom: Over the past year, home price growth (20.6%) is four times greater than income growth (4.8%). That disconnect has more economists flirting with the most hated two words in real estate: housing bubble.

Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi tells Fortune it’s premature to use that term. A bubble, in his mind, would require both speculation-driven price growth and overvaluation...

Read all about it >
Keep an eye on these ‘overvalued’ housing markets as the housing boom implodes

              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 5/23 - 5/29/2022

From Monday May 23 - Sunday May 29 - 15 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750  (link expires 6/30/2022)

7 were priced from $380,000 to $597,500
6  from $615,000 to $925,000
2 @ $1,375,000 to $3,295,000

15 to contract and still moving quickly, in 5 DOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, May 16 - May 22, 2022

From Monday May 16 thru Sunday May 22 - 17 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718 / 85750
(link expires 6/24/2022)

3 were priced from $340,000 to $489,000
7 from $750,000 to $995,000
7 from $1,000,000 to $1,800,00

with temps nearing the triple digits, most snowbirds gone, the stock market still flailing its way down, interest rates still rising, those 17 homes still  managed to go to contract in 7 DOM... a slight increase in DOM from recent weeks

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

very low chance of Tucson home prices dropping

that's  according to a recent study real estate research firm CoreLogic did for Fortune of 392 US markets.

In Arizona, Tucson, Phoenix, Flagstaff and Sierra Vista - Douglas are all rated Very Low (0 - 20%) chance of home prices dropping, whereas Prescott and Lake Havasu City ranked Very High chances (Over 70%) of prices dropping

Read all about it >> The odds of a home price correction just spiked—this interactive chart shows if your local housing market is at risk

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

TheFoothillsToday.com
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, May 9 - May 15, 2022

From Monday May 9 thru Sunday May 15 - 19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ - 85718/85750
(link expires 6/18/2022)

7 were priced from $420,000 to $590,000
7 from $603,500 to $925,000
5 from $1,125,000 to $2,300,000

still going quickly, they went to contract in 5 DOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

 TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Catalina Foothills Home Sales at $1,000,000+

In the last couple years home sales at $1,000,000+ have risen from being a rather puny 6 or 7 % of all single family homes sold in the Catalina foothills to almost 20% sold last year...

Year	# Homes Sold All Prices	# Homes Sold $1,000,000+	% Sold $1,000,000+
2016	828	53	6.4
2017	898	53	5.9
2018	823	62	7.5
2019	876	60	6.8
2020	930	86	9.2
2021	962	183	19

and so far this year, thru May 15, 317 homes sold including 87 that sold at $1,000,000+ thereby raising the % of homes sold at $1,000,000+ to 27%.  A formidable chunk of the market. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

Zillow's Zestimates

Millions of home buyers and sellers look to Zillow for guidance on the value of their home or on a home they may be interested in buying. And so I was more than a little disappointed to discover that my beautiful new listing at 5441 E Gleneagles Dr in Skyline CC, priced at $2,495,000, and in my opinion worth every penny, had a $1,763,020 zestimate on Zillow. That's miles apart and being that far apart is not a good first impression for buyers who may be interested in the home.

It was apparent to me, what else could it be, that Zillow had no knowledge of the extensive renovation and remodel my clients had done in the years they owned it. So I wrote to Zillow, summarized the work that was done and got the detailed list of improvements and the new floorplan into their hands.

Bingo! in just a few days Zillow updated the zestimate from $1,763,020 to $2,539,900 with a zestimate range of $2.41M - $2.84M.

All's well, Thank you Zillow, for the quick response and the properly updated zestimate. 

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

 

in contract the last 2 weeks, 4/25 - 5/08/2022

From Monday April 25 thru Sunday May 8 - 35 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718/85750) (link expires 6/09/20222)

6 were listed from $435,000 to $565,000
20 from $625,000 to $995,000
9 from $1,050,000 to $2,499,999

And they went to contract in 4 DOM.. Yep, they're still going fast
But how long can that last.
With the stock market falling, substantially, and interest rates rising, quite a bit, I can't imagine that the numbers won't soon begin to reflect those events. 
And today I see in MLS, for the first time in a long-long time, 6 homes listed for sale had price reductions -  price reductions have been almost unheard of during  the last 18 months.

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

"On the Beach in Malibu"

"On the Beach in Malibu" is my pet name for this spectacular property, in my opinion it is the Catalina Foothills version of being "On the Beach in Malibu" 

6941 N Finger Rock Pl Tucson, AZ 85718

$2,750,000

Endless Views
4,438 sf /1.15 acre lot
6 Bedrooms/4 Baths
3 Car Garage

At >> https://www.houzz.com/hznb/projects/tucson-foothills-renovation-pj-vj~816558 << Gene Kniaz, the founder of Spiral Architects offers valuable insights into the goals and tasks involved in the renovation of this property - at the houzz site click the photos of each room for Gene's description of each room.

The following photos highlight key areas of this home, there are many more photos, and more information in the listing - 6941 N Finger Rock Pl, Tucson, AZ 85718

 

 

 

There are many more photos and all the detailed information in the listing 
6941 N Finger Rock Pl
Tucson, AZ 85718

$2,750,000

Endless Views
4,438 sf /1.15 acre lot
6 Bedrooms/4 Baths
3 Car Garage

If you are not working with a Realtor®/real estate agent and would like some help navigating the foothills market, or with just this home, give me a call, let's talk and see how I may be able to help you. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

Catalina Foothills Single Family Home Sales Jan 1 - April 30, 2022

here's a look at how the Catalina Foothills single family home market has performed from January 1st to April 30th of each year from 2018 to 2022
(DOM = days on market / MSP = median sold price)

Year	# Homes Sold	# Sold Cash	% Sold Cash	MSP	+/- % MSP v Prior Year	DOM	# Homes For Sale
2022	283	119	42%	$750,000	+12%	5	+/- 65
2021	332	119	36%	$669,775	+24%	5	+/- 81
2020	279	66	24%	$540,000	+14%	23	+/- 226
2019	251	79	31%	$475,000	+0.4	41	+/- 322
2018	278	89	32%	$473,500	+6%	34	+/- 341

the 119 cash sales in 2021 & 2022 is correct, not a typo
Big price jumps that took off in 2020 jumped even higher in 2021 and while they're still rising this year they're doing so more moderately - though in any normal market a 12% price jump would be considered exorbitant.  And home sales are down 15% this year, why, because the # homes for sale is down lower than ever before and there is just too little to choose from.
So, you're still sitting pretty if you're selling, and it's still a frustrating, tough nut to crack if you're trying to buy. 
However, keep in mind that sales are based on deals that were made to 25 to 45 days before the sale closed. 

For a snapshot of current activity in the Catalina Foothills Single Family Home Market check out the Market Snapshot 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

Remodeled to Perfection for Modern Living in Skyline CC

I recently listed 5441 E. Gleneagles Dr in Skyline CC, a stunning casual-contemporary home that has been beautifully and thoughtfully renovated to offer the modern conveniences and design aesthetics of a new home while maintaining the classic attributes of its original design. This home perfectly blends traditional elegance with modern comfort and convenience. Along with tall ceilings, an abundance of large windows and glass doors, the natural light-filled open floor-plan offers functional and stylish upgrades throughout. 

The renovation/remodel and upgrades were so substantial, complete and well done that the Pima County Assessor upgraded the effective year built to 1992 from the actual build date of 1974 - which speaks clearly to the quality of the renovation/remodel. 

5441 E. Gleneagles Dr / Skyline CC
$2,495,000

6,086 sf including a 782 sf guest house with living area, kitchenette, bedroom & bath. 
5 Bedrooms/5.5 Bath
One level, no interior steps
3 car garage

Be sure to click the Documents tab in the listing for a detailed list of the renovations performed by the current owners. 

If you are not working with a Realtor®/real estate agent and would like some help navigating the foothills market, or with just this home, give me a call, let's talk and see how I may be able to help you. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 4/18 - 4/24/2022

From Monday April 18 thru Sunday April 24 - (just) 11 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718/85750) (link expires 5/29/2022)

2 were priced at $575,000 & $599,000
6 from $725,000 to $940,000
3 from $1,325,000 to $3,975,000

and that's it, a slow week for contracts, slower than any week (that I can remember) since April 2020 when the market tanked due to the arrival of covid-19. What's causing it dip now - hmmm .... could it be that buyers are sick and tired and frustrated by the low supply of homes for sale and the now commonplace bidding wars for the few that are for sale and are drifting away from being active buyers ....how about the sharp rise in interest rates, the wabbly stock market, rising inflation... what else?  And it's not just last week, April has been slower than it was before

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

A Gorgeous New Listing in the Catalina Foothills

I recently listed 6941 N Finger Rock Pl, a gorgeous & inviting home with panoramic views located on a quiet, private lot in gated Foothills ll, convenient to the best of everything the Catalina Foothills has to offer, listed at $2,750,000

The photos speak for themselves - and say it much better than I can - so, if you like what you see in the photos, you will LOVE what you see in person

If you are not working with a Realtor®/real estate agent and would like some help navigating the foothills market, or with just this home, give me a call, let's talk and see how I may be able to help you. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

in contract last week, 4/11 - 4/17/2022

From Monday April 11 thru Sunday April 17 - 16 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718/85750) (link expires 5/24/2022)

2 were listed at $375,000 & $575,000
11 from $600,000 to $975,000
 3 from $1,050,000 to $3,495,000

and they went quickly, in 5 MDOM

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
and see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 4/4 - 4/10/2022

From Monday April 4 thru Sunday April 10 - 22 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 / 85750) (link expires 5/14/2022)

 6 were priced from $329,900 to $550,000
10 from $625,000 to $925,000
 6 from $1,100,000 to $1,849,000

they went in 5 MDOM

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
and see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 3/28 - 4/3/2022

From Monday March 28 thru Sunday April 3 - 13 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ   (85718 & 85750)      (link expires 5/11/2022)

4 were priced from $412,000 to $550,000
5 from $725,000 to $950,000
4 from $1,099,500 to $1,325,000

slowdown, what slowdown, they flew off the shelf in 3 MDOM
(median days on market)

 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
and see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

1st Qtr. Homes Sales in the Catalina Foothills

here's a look at how the Catalina Foothills single family home market has performed during the 1st Qtr. of each year from 2018 thru 2022. (DOM = days on market / MSP = median sold price)

Year	# Homes Sold	# Sold Cash	% Cash Sales	MSP	+/- % MSP v prior year	DOM	# of Homes For Sale
2022	206	82	40%	$755,000	+16%	6	+/- 62
2021	243	89	37%	$650,000	+20%	4	+/- 81
2020	216	58	27%	$543,500	+14%	29	+/- 226
2019	184	60	33%	$475,000	+2%	55	+/- 320
2018	192	56	29%	$465,000	+3%	36	+/-  322

So, big jumps in prices starting in 2020 along with declining DOM and declining # of homes for sale. All of which continue  to this day.                                                                                                                         

PS, we finished 2021 with the MSP at - $695,000 for the year- and now for the 1st Qtr. of 2022 it's up to $755,00. 
Where will it go from here?

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

recent list & sold prices - March 19 - March 31

The following are the list and sold prices of the 45 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from March 19 to  March 31, 2022 thru the Tucson Association of Realtors® MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona).

 

Listed	Sold
429,900	376,555
385,000	380,000
410,000	395,000
400,000	403,101
415,000	409,000
425,000	412,000
475,000	475,000
479,000	477,000
579,000	575,000
515,000	615,000
625,000	625,000
725,000	638,500
615,000	651,000
650,000	680,000
685,000	685,000
695,000	695,000
695,000	696,000
549,000	705,000
689,900	709,500
625,000	710,000
715,000	715,000
765,000	760,000
775,000	769,000
785,000	785,000
819,900	791,000
795,000	825,000
846,631	846,631
765,000	850,000
915,000	895,000
950,000	900,000
925,000	925,000
820,000	950,000
995,000	1,010,000
1,150,000	1,050,000
998,000	1,097,600
929,900	1,100,000
1,300,000	1,130,000
1,350,000	1,285,000
1,200,000	1,310,000
1,300,000	1,315,000
1,450,000	1,500,000
1,495,000	1,670,000
1,395,000	1,675,000
1,999,000	1,983,000
2,750,000	2,600,000

45 homes sold

19 sold for more than list price     - 42%

 8 sold at list price  - 18%

18 sold for less than list price   - 40%

22 were cash sales   -  49%

The MSP of the 45 homes sold is $769,000 & they sold in 9 median DOM - a decrease in MSP and an increase in DOM from the previous Listed & Sold report .

However, because the time period for each report is so short, 2 weeks or less, I would hold off until we have 2 - 3 months of data before drawing conclusions about where the market is headed.  And I believe the longer DOM numbers are at least partially due to more sellers delaying the response time to offers they receive, e.g.: (.... seller will review and respond to offers after 3pm on Sunday April 10), in order to give more buyers the opportunity to see the house and to make an offer, thereby setting up a silent auction. 

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

 

in contract last week, 3/21 - 3/27/2022

From Monday March 21 thru Sunday March 27 - 24 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ   (85718 & 85750)    (link expires 4/29/2022)

 6 were priced from $340,000 to $515,000
15 from $619,000 to $950,000
 3 from $1,000,000 to $1,450,000

and they're still going fast - this group went in 4 *MDOM

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 
*median days on market

in contract the last 2 weeks, 3/7 - 3/20/2022

From Monday March 7 thru Sunday March 20 - 39 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ   (85718 & 85750)    (link expires 4/23/2022)

11 were priced from $359,900 to $575,000
15 from $650,000 to $950,000
13 from $1,000,000 to $3,750,000

and they went quickly, buyers put those 39 homes in contract in just 7 MDOM

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

recent list & sold prices

The following are the list and sold prices of the 29 single family homes that sold in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ (85718 & 85750) from March 7th to  March 18th, 2022 thru the Tucson Association of Realtors® MLSSAZ (Multiple Listing Service of Southern Arizona).

 

List Price	Sold Price
475,000	450,000
505,000	485,000
547,950	620,000
571,499	592,500
599,000	620,000
635,000	627,500
649,900	727,000
675,000	713,000
700,000	730,000
700,000	725,000
719,000	720,870
725,000	750,000
749,000	765,000
850,000	907,000
850,000	950,000
855,000	855,000
875,000	1,025,000
925,000	1,151,000
975,000	975,000
1,029,000	1,029,000
1,145,000	1,150,000
1,285,000	1,250,000
1,300,000	1,352,000
1,300,000	1,300,000
1,395,000	1,361,366
1,895,000	1,895,000
1,999,999	2,400,000
2,095,000	1,925,000
2,650,000	2,600,000

 

The MSP of the 29 sold is $907,000 & they sold in 5 median DOM 

29 homes sold

these 17 sold for over list price

these 5 sold for list price

these 7 sold for under list price

That's it, the current market in the Catalina Foothills, 
 
John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

Take care, stay well

see TheFoothillsToday.com 
to see all the homes for sale in the Catalina Foothills 
(and only in the Catalina Foothills)

where home prices are headed

Two articles from Fortune

Where home prices are headed through 2023, as forecast by Bank of America

BY LANCE LAMBERT

March 16, 2022 2:43 AM MST

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress earlier this month he favors upping rates in order to help rein in runaway inflation. In preparation of the first hike, which is expected today, financial markets are already pricing in higher mortgage rates. As of Friday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 3.85%—up from 3.11% in December.

Spiking mortgage rates should help to cool the red-hot housing market, right? Not so fast, predicts a report due out this week by Bank of America.

While higher mortgage rates would price out some buyers, Bank of America says it won't be enough to stop the housing market from posting strong home price growth this year. Indeed, Bank of America predicts that U.S. home prices will finish 2022 up 10%. That's nearly double the average annual home price growth (4.6%) posted since 1989. However, it would be a bit of a deceleration: Between December 2020 and December 2021, the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index—the leading measurement of U.S. home prices—jumped 18.8%.

Why the bullish 2022 outlook? While climbing mortgage rates could pour some cold water on the housing market over the long term, Bank of America says it could increase buyers’ urgency—as they rush to lock in rates—in the short term. Rising household incomes, favorable demographics, and "shifting preferences due to remote work" should also put upward pressure on price growth, writes Bank of America. That demand is something the supply side of the market—which is still hovering around four-decade lows for housing inventory—simply can't handle.

Continue Reading

                  -----------------------------------------------------------------

also from Fortune

Falling home prices? It’s only likely in these 13 housing markets, says CoreLogic

BY 

LANCE LAMBERT

March 17, 2022 3:18 AM MST

The housing market isn't just running hot—it's running red-hot. The inventory crisis, which has seen homebuyers outnumber sellers by a wide margin during the pandemic, is worsening. Bidding wars are up to a new all-time high, and every single major forecast model shows home prices rising nationally this year.

That said, there are a few regional housing markets that could buck the national trend and actually post declining home values this year. That's according to an analysis released this week by CoreLogic, a real estate research firm ranked No. 952 in the Fortune 1000.

On Wednesday, CoreLogic provided Fortune the market risk calculation for 385 metropolitan statistical areas. Among those markets, CoreLogic rates 13 markets as having a "high" likelihood (between a 50% to 75% probability) of declining home prices in the coming 12 months. Those 13 markets include Niles, Mich.; Lake Havasu City, Ariz.; Chico, Calif.; Lewiston, Maine; Modesto, Calif.; Muskegon, Mich.; Pittsfield, Mass.; Prescott, Ariz.; Worcester, Mass.; Bend, Ore.; Kalamazoo, Mich.; Merced, Calif.; and Springfield, Mass.

Continue Reading

               --------------------------------------------------------------------

Me, I don't predict the future.
I simply report on what happened in this market in the past and what is happening in the present. If you wish to, use the information I post here as you see fit to help you gauge what is going to happen in the future. 

That said, at this time there are no signs of a slowdown in this market. It is not loosening up, the inventory is not increasing. If anything the market is running tighter, with more buyers who may have lost out on a house before and are now more determined and better prepared to enter the fray. They, the better prepared, are putting desirable homes in contract lickety-split, often in the midst of multiple offers and often at list or over list prices. That is the not-so-new normal of what's happening in this market now.

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

they're squeezing them in where ever they can

New homes, that is.
This one looks like it will have a birds-eye view of Craycroft Rd. click photos to enlarge them

In the foothills homes are being built on lots that for years were passed over and ignored. Not no more, they're squeezing them in where ever they can. 

Other parts of the country talk about building their way out of their housing shortage. Not here, not in the foothills anyway. There's not enough land to build enough homes to make a difference. And whatever there is, be it by the side of this road or another one, are being built on or soon will be. 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

in contract last week, 2/28 - 3/06/2022

From Monday Feb 28 thru Sunday March 6 - 19 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ   (85718 & 85750)
(link expires 4/12/2022)

 2 at $450,000 & $499,995
13 from $650,000 to $929,900
 4 from $1,295,000 to $2,350,000

and btw, those 19 homes went to contract in 4 median DOM, 2 days or more quicker than recent weeks/months

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

Housing markets tightening across the USA

Barclays Bank surveys 100's of real estate agents in 38 cities across the country about market conditions in their local market. And each month I participate in the survey covering the Tucson housing market. In addition to answering a set of questions Barclays asks agents to leave a short comment about the current market. The Barclays analysts review the market data, put together the report and choose the comment that best describes prevailing market conditions. They produce a report for each of the 38 cities surveyed and send the complete report with all 38 cities to those agents who participated in the survey.

I just received the latest report and the headline is, "Lack of Home Supply Slowing Buyer Traffic"  which sums it up nicely.  
The comment I left was also focused on the low supply of homes but was probably stated less elegantly. 

Click the report to enlarge it

After reviewing the Tucson report I thumbed thru the headlines of the other 37 cities and found that the low supply issue is even more widespread than I realized.

 I chose the following 21 headlines from the 38 cities included in the report. 

Boston, MA –Persistent Inventory Shortage Pushes Prices Higher; Rate Urgency Fuels Traffic Lift

Cincinnati, OH –Housing Supply Outnumbered By Interested Buyers

Denver, CO –Housing Supply Constraints Persist, Especially at More Affordable Price Points

Detroit, MI –Buyers Look to Lock In Lower Rates Across Slim Housing Offerings

Houston, TX –Prices Continue to Rise, Leaving Scarce Inventory Available for Entry-Level Buyers

Kansas City, MO –Limited Inventory Pushes Prices Higher, Buyer Traffic Accelerates

Las Vegas, NV –Demand Slows on Pandemic & Inventory Concerns, Although Prices Appreciate Further

Los Angeles, CA –Sales Pressured By Tight Inventory; Risk of Higher Rates Increasing Buyer Interest

Nashville, TN –Price Appreciation & Strong Traffic Patterns Persist; Buyers Staying Put in Larger Homes

Orlando, FL –Inbound Migration Supports Steady Buying Activity; Prices Climb Against Tight Inventory

Philadelphia, PA-Southern NJ –Short Inventory Levels Stifle Buyer Traffic

Phoenix, AZ –Supply Softness Pushes Prices Higher on Elevated Buyer Traffic

Portland, OR –Prices Jump Against Stable Buyer Traffic & Inventory Pressures

Raleigh, NC –Shortage of Inventory Pressures Purchasing Activity; Buyers Engage in Multiple Offer Bidding

San Diego, CA –Accelerating Prices on Limited Offerings Push Buyers to the Sidelines

San Francisco, CA –Buyer Interest Persists Despite Inventory Shortage

Seattle, WA –Buyer Traffic Outweighs Available Listings

Tampa, FL –Inventory Pressures & High Prices Dampen Purchasing Activity; Multiple Offer Competition Continues

Tucson, AZ –Lack of Home Supply Slowing Buyer Traffic

Virginia Beach, VA –Inventory Pressures Worsen as Buyer Activity Accelerates

Washington, D.C. –Rising Mortgage Rates Incentivize Buyers to Shop Limited Inventory

                           -------------------------------------------

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

54 single family homes sold in the last 30 days

how many sold at, below and above list price?
(MSP-median sold price // DOM-days on market)

14 sold for list price
at $854,500 MSP // in 6 DOM

21 sold for less than list price
at $772,500 MSP // in 38 DOM

19 sold for more than list price
at $660,000 MSP // in 3 DOM

for a visual treat take a moment to lookover the home that sold for $3.0m, probably the most striking contemporary I've ever seen...and apparently the buyer, and the other bidders, felt something like that as well, the house was listed for $1,995,000 and sold, in 2 days, for $3,000,000.  yes, $1,005,000 over list price.

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

Jan - Feb Homes Sales, Now and Then

The following is a snapshot of January - February single family home sales in the Catalina Foothills from 2019 to 2022.
It's pretty much the same pattern we've seen since the 3rd Qtr of 2020; rising prices, quick sales, more cash sales and a dwindling number of homes for sale. 

Year	# Homes Sold	# Sold for Cash	% of Cash Sales	Median Sold Price	% $Rise prior year	Days on Market	# Homes For Sale
2022	116	44	38%	$710,000	12.7%	9	+/- 67
2021	141	46	32.6%	$630,000	15%	10	+/- 80
2020	132	34	25.7%	$547,500	10.6	32	+/- 230
2019	97	34	35%	$495,000	2%	71	+/- 318

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

in contract last week, 2/21 - 2/27/2022

From Monday Feb 21 thru Sunday Feb 27 - 21 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ   (85718 / 85750)  (link expires 4/01/2022) 

4 were priced from $429,900 to $549,000
9 from $625,000 to $850,000
8 from $1,165,000 to $1,650,000

the numbers say they went to contract in 9 DOM. But in reality when the listing goes into the MLS on 2/17 and it states "... allow time in contract for seller to review and respond to offers on Monday  Monday 2/21 ..." the DOM have been extended by 4 days in order to create a silent auction.
If that wasn't done some of those homes would have gone to contract sooner, on their 1st or 2nd day on market.

and the $Mil+ market, geez, as hot as ever

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

a new low

there are 65 single family homes for sale in the foothills today

End of February, beginning of March is (used to be) the height of the season, with more activity, more showings and more contracts than at other times of the year. But with just 65 homes for sale that is not likely this Feb/March

Feb/March 2019 there were 318 for sale

Feb/March 2020 (on the cusp of covid) there were 232 for sale

Feb/March 2021 there were 72 for sale, and so it goes 

Today there are 65 for sale, see them here
(link expires 3/30/2022)

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

 

Zillow says ...

The spring 2022 housing market will absolutely crush buyers — Zillow says home prices to spike 22%

 Fortune.com

BY 

LANCE LAMBERT
February 17, 2022 3:20 AM MST

 
Heading into 2022, there was a wide consensus among real estate firms that the annual rate of home price growth—which peaked at 20% in August 2021—would steadily decelerate this year as some normalcy began to return to a housing market that had boomed during much of the pandemic. But now some experts aren't so sure.

Back in December, Zillow forecast that the 12-month rate of home price growth would decelerate to 11% by the end of the year. Then in January, Zillow revised that figure—saying that we would finish 2022 up 16.4%. On Wednesday, Zillow once again shifted its forecast upward: It now expects the year-over-year rate of home price growth to peak at 21.6% in May and to close the year at 17.3%. Simply put: Instead of decelerating, Zillow sees the 2022 spring housing market getting even hotter.

What's going on? Instead of inventory levels beginning to normalize this year, the situation is getting worse. In January 2021, the number of homes for sale was 26% below the level hit in January 2020. Last month we were 42% below January 2020. That lack of inventory means buyers will once again be forced to bid up prices if they hope to land a home.  
Continue Reading the Article

                --------------------------------------------------------------------

Speaking only for the Catalina Foothills single family home market the low inventory and high demand that began in the 2nd half of 2020 has not eased or improved at all this year. And I don't see any signs that it will improve anytime soon. With continuing low inventory, high demand and buyers who are not shying away from multiple offer situations I don't see how prices have anywhere to go but up. How far up I have no idea but the experts do. Take your pick, Zillow, Core Logic, Fannie Mae and others are predicting increases ranging from +3.5% to +22%. 

And many headlines and talking heads are predicting that rising mortgage rates will dampen the market - maybe a tiny bit but, in this market in the Catalina Foothills, not much, not a sea change. For me the last sentence in the article nails the negligible effect of rising rates ; There are so many sidelined homebuyers that even if some are priced out by rates, there will be others waiting to replace them. 

We'll soon see.

               ----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home

 

in contract the last 2 weeks, 2/7 - 2/20/2022

From Monday Feb 7 thru Sunday Feb 20 - 36 single family homes went to contract in the Catalina Foothills of Tucson, AZ   (85718 / 85750)  (link expires 3/24/2022)

4 were listed from $479,000 to $579,500
21 from $615,000 to $998,000
11 from $1,190,000 to $1,999,999

they went to contract very quickly, in just 5 DOM, which I'm guessing may have something to do with why 5 other homes that went to contract fell thru
Yes, there were 41 in contract but 5 have fallen thru and, as I mentioned last week, I wouldn't be surprised if at least some them fell thru due to buyer remorse - buyers having to make offers too quickly and perhaps for more $$ than they thought they should, in order to be the winning bidder.. 

 

Take care, stay well

John Schneider /Realtor®
Tierra Antigua Realty
johnschneiders@gmail.com
520 271-4164

see my website TheFoothillsToday.com 
to find your Catalina Foothills Home